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  • 1
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    Climate-change impact potentials as an alternative to global warming potentials (2014)
    Institute of Physics
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    Publication Date: 2014-03-01
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  • 2
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    Architecture of the global land acquisition system: applying the tools of network science to identify key vulnerabilities (2014)
    Institute of Physics (IOP)
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    Publication Date: 2014-11-08
    Description: Global land acquisitions, often dubbed ‘land grabbing’ are increasingly becoming drivers of land change. We use the tools of network science to describe the connectivity of the global acquisition system. We find that 126 countries participate in this form of global land trade. Importers are concentrated in the Global North, the emerging economies of Asia, and the Middle East, while exporters are confined to the Global South and Eastern Europe. A small handful of countries account for the majority of land acquisitions (particularly China, the UK, and the US), the cumulative distribution of which is best described by a power law. We also find that countries with many land trading partners play a disproportionately central role in providing connectivity across the network with the shortest trading path between any two countries traversing either China, the US, or the UK over a third of the time. The land acquisition network is characterized by very few trading cliques and therefore ...
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  • 3
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    Return periods of losses associated with European windstorm series in a changing climate (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-12-16
    Description: Possible future changes of clustering and return periods (RPs) of European storm series with high potential losses are quantified. Historical storm series are identified using 40 winters of reanalysis. Time series of top events (1, 2 or 5 year return levels (RLs)) are used to assess RPs of storm series both empirically and theoretically. Additionally, 800 winters of general circulation model simulations for present (1960–2000) and future (2060–2100) climate conditions are investigated. Clustering is identified for most countries, and estimated RPs are similar for reanalysis and present day simulations. Future changes of RPs are estimated for fixed RLs and fixed loss index thresholds. For the former, shorter RPs are found for Western Europe, but changes are small and spatially heterogeneous. For the latter, which combines the effects of clustering and event ranking shifts, shorter RPs are found everywhere except for Mediterranean countries. These changes are generally not statisti...
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  • 4
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    The influence of oceanic basins on drought and ecosystem dynamics in Northeast Brazil (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-12-16
    Description: The 2012 drought in Northeast Brazil was the harshest in decades, with potentially significant impacts on the vegetation of the unique semi-arid caatinga biome and on local livelihoods. Here, we use a coupled climate–vegetation model (CCM3-IBIS) to: (1) investigate the role of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans in the 2012 drought, and; (2) evaluate the response of the caatinga vegetation to the 2012 climate extreme. Our results indicate that anomalous sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic Ocean were the primary factor forcing the 2012 drought, with Pacific Ocean SST having a larger role in sustaining typical climatic conditions in the region. The drought strongly influenced net primary production in the caatinga, causing a reduction in annual net ecosystem exchange indicating a reduction in amount of CO 2 released to the atmosphere.
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  • 5
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    The distribution and amount of carbon in the largest peatland complex in Amazonia (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-12-16
    Description: Peatlands in Amazonian Peru are known to store large quantities of carbon, but there is high uncertainty in the spatial extent and total carbon stocks of these ecosystems. Here, we use a multi-sensor (Landsat, ALOS PALSAR and SRTM) remote sensing approach, together with field data including 24 forest census plots and 218 peat thickness measurements, to map the distribution of peatland vegetation types and calculate the combined above- and below-ground carbon stock of peatland ecosystems in the Pastaza-Marañon foreland basin in Peru. We find that peatlands cover 35 600 ± 2133 km 2 and contain 3.14 (0.44–8.15) Pg C. Variation in peat thickness and bulk density are the most important sources of uncertainty in these values. One particular ecosystem type, peatland pole forest, is found to be the most carbon-dense ecosystem yet identified in Amazonia (1391 ± 710 Mg C ha −1 ). The novel approach of combining optical and radar remote sensing with above- and below-groun...
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  • 6
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    Painting the world REDD: addressing scientific barriers to monitoring emissions from tropical forests (2011)
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    Publication Date: 2011-05-27
    Description: Author(s): Gregory P Asner Affiliation(s): Carnegie Institution for Science, 260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
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  • 7
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    Immersion freezing by natural dust based on a soccer ball model with the Community Atmospheric Model version 5: climate effects (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-12-19
    Description: We introduce a simplified version of the soccer ball model (SBM) developed by Niedermeier et al (2014 Geophys. Res. Lett. 41 [http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058684] 736–741 ) into the Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM5). It is the first time that SBM is used in an atmospheric model to parameterize the heterogeneous ice nucleation. The SBM, which was simplified for its suitable application in atmospheric models, uses the classical nucleation theory to describe the immersion/condensation freezing by dust in the mixed-phase cloud regime. Uncertain parameters (mean contact angle, standard deviation of contact angle probability distribution, and number of surface sites) in the SBM are constrained by fitting them to recent natural dust (Saharan dust) datasets. With the SBM in CAM5, we investigate the sensitivity of modeled cloud properties to the SBM parameters, and find significant seasonal and regional differences in the sensitivity among the...
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  • 8
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    Scenario analysis for nutrient emission reduction in the European inland waters (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-12-19
    Description: Despite a large body of legislation, high nutrient loads are still emitted in European inland waters. In the present study we evaluate a set of alternative scenarios aiming at reducing nitrogen and phosphorus emissions from anthropogenic activities to all European Seas. In particular, we tested the full implementation of the European Urban Waste Water Directive, which controls emissions from point source. In addition, we associated the full implementation of this Directive with a ban of phosphorus-based laundry detergents. Then we tested two human diet scenarios and their impacts on nutrient emissions. We also developed a scenario based on an optimal use of organic manure. The impacts of all our scenarios were evaluated using a statistical model of nitrogen and phosphorus fate (GREEN) linked to an agro-economic model (CAPRI). We show that the ban of phosphorus-based laundry detergents coupled with the full implementation of the Urban Waste Water Directive is the most effective ap...
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  • 9
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    Science in the aftermath: investigations of the DWH hydrocarbon discharge (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-12-19
    Description: Description unavailable
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  • 10
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    Use of pre-industrial floodplain lake sediments to establish baseline river metal concentrations downstream of Alberta oil sands: a new approach for detecting pollution of rivers (2014)
    Institute of Physics (IOP)
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    Publication Date: 2014-12-19
    Description: In the Alberta oil sands region, insufficient knowledge of pre-disturbance reference conditions has undermined the ability of the Regional Aquatics Monitoring Program (RAMP) to detect pollution of the Athabasca River, because sampling began three decades after the industry started and the river naturally erodes oil-bearing strata. Here, we apply a novel approach to characterize pre-industrial reference metal concentrations in river sediment downstream of Alberta oil sands development by analyzing metal concentrations in sediments deposited in floodplain lakes of the Athabasca Delta during 1700–1916, when they were strongly influenced by Athabasca River floodwaters. We compared results to metal concentrations in surficial bottom sediments sampled by RAMP (2010–2013) at downstream sites of the Athabasca River and distributaries. When normalized to lithium content, concentrations of vanadium (a metal of concern in the oil sands region) and other priority pollutants (Be, Cd, Cr, Cu, ...
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  • 11
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    Asynchronous Amazon forest canopy phenology indicates adaptation to both water and light availability (2014)
    Institute of Physics (IOP)
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    Publication Date: 2014-12-19
    Description: Amazon forests represent nearly half of all tropical vegetation biomass and, through photosynthesis and respiration, annually process more than twice the amount of estimated carbon (CO 2 ) from fossil fuel emissions. Yet the seasonality of Amazon canopy cover, and the extent to which seasonal fluctuations in water availability and photosynthetically available radiation influence these processes, is still poorly understood. Implementing six remotely sensed data sets spanning nine years (2003–2011), with reported field and flux tower data, we show that southern equatorial Amazon forests exhibit a distinctive seasonal signal. Seasonal timing of water availability, canopy biomass growth and net leaf flush are asynchronous in regions with short dry seasons and become more synchronous across a west-to-east longitudinal moisture gradient of increasing dry season. Forest cover is responsive to seasonal disparities in both water and solar radiation availability, temporally adjust...
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  • 12
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    On the spatial and temporal distribution of global thunderstorm cells (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-12-19
    Description: Estimates of global thunderstorm activity have been made predominately by direct measurements of lightning discharges around the globe, either by optical measurements from satellites, or using ground-based radio antennas. In this paper we propose a new methodology in which thunderstorm clusters are constructed based on the lightning strokes detected by the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) in the very low frequency range. We find that even with low lightning detection efficiency on a global scale, the spatial and temporal distribution of global thunderstorm cells is well reproduced. This is validated by comparing the global diurnal variations of the thunderstorm cells, and the currents produced by these storms, with the well-known Carnegie Curve, which represents the mean diurnal variability of the global atmospheric electric circuit, driven by thunderstorm activity. While the Carnegie Curve agrees well with our diurnal thunderstorm cluster variations, there is little...
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  • 13
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    Climate change induced transformations of agricultural systems: insights from a global model (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-12-19
    Description: Climate change might impact crop yields considerably and anticipated transformations of agricultural systems are needed in the coming decades to sustain affordable food provision. However, decision-making on transformational shifts in agricultural systems is plagued by uncertainties concerning the nature and geography of climate change, its impacts, and adequate responses. Locking agricultural systems into inadequate transformations costly to adjust is a significant risk and this acts as an incentive to delay action. It is crucial to gain insight into how much transformation is required from agricultural systems, how robust such strategies are, and how we can defuse the associated challenge for decision-making. While implementing a definition related to large changes in resource use into a global impact assessment modelling framework, we find transformational adaptations to be required of agricultural systems in most regions by 2050s in order to cope with climate change. However,...
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  • 14
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    A novel approach for introducing cloud spatial structure into cloud radiative transfer parameterizations (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-12-19
    Description: Subgrid-scale variability is one of the main reasons why parameterizations are needed in large-scale models. Although some parameterizations started to address the issue of subgrid variability by introducing a subgrid probability distribution function for relevant quantities, the spatial structure has been typically ignored and thus the subgrid-scale interactions cannot be accounted for physically. Here we present a new statistical-physics-like approach whereby the spatial autocorrelation function can be used to physically capture the net effects of subgrid cloud interaction with radiation. The new approach is able to faithfully reproduce the Monte Carlo 3D simulation results with several orders less computational cost, allowing for more realistic representation of cloud radiation interactions in large-scale models.
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  • 15
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    The extreme 2014 flood in south-western Amazon basin: the role of tropical-subtropical South Atlantic SST gradient (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-12-09
    Description: Unprecedented wet conditions are reported in the 2014 summer (December–March) in South-western Amazon, with rainfall about 100% above normal. Discharge in the Madeira River (the main southern Amazon tributary) has been 74% higher than normal (58 000 m 3 s −1 ) at Porto Velho and 380% (25 000 m 3 s −1 ) at Rurrenabaque, at the exit of the Andes in summer, while levels of the Rio Negro at Manaus were 29.47 m in June 2014, corresponding to the fifth highest record during the 113 years record of the Rio Negro. While previous floods in Amazonia have been related to La Niña and/or warmer than normal tropical South Atlantic, the 2014 rainfall and flood anomalies are associated with warm condition in the western Pacific-Indian Ocean and with an exceptionally warm Subtropical South Atlantic. Our results suggest that the tropical and subtropical South Atlantic SST gradient is a main driver for moisture transport from the Atlantic toward south-western A...
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  • 16
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    Assessing atmospheric bias correction for dynamical consistency using potential vorticity (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-12-09
    Description: Correcting biases in atmospheric variables prior to impact studies or dynamical downscaling can lead to new biases as dynamical consistency between the ‘corrected’ fields is not maintained. Use of these bias corrected fields for subsequent impact studies and dynamical downscaling provides input conditions that do not appropriately represent intervariable relationships in atmospheric fields. Here we investigate the consequences of the lack of dynamical consistency in bias correction using a measure of model consistency—the potential vorticity (PV). This paper presents an assessment of the biases present in PV using two alternative correction techniques—an approach where bias correction is performed individually on each atmospheric variable, thereby ignoring the physical relationships that exists between the multiple variables that are corrected, and a second approach where bias correction is performed directly on the PV field, thereby keeping the system dynamically coherent throug...
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  • 17
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    Modeling very large-fire occurrences over the continental United States from weather and climate forcing (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-12-09
    Description: Very large-fires (VLFs) have widespread impacts on ecosystems, air quality, fire suppression resources, and in many regions account for a majority of total area burned. Empirical generalized linear models of the largest fires (〉5000 ha) across the contiguous United States (US) were developed at ∼60 km spatial and weekly temporal resolutions using solely atmospheric predictors. Climate−fire relationships on interannual timescales were evident, with wetter conditions than normal in the previous growing season enhancing VLFs probability in rangeland systems and with concurrent long-term drought enhancing VLFs probability in forested systems. Information at sub-seasonal timescales further refined these relationships, with short-term fire weather being a significant predictor in rangelands and fire danger indices linked to dead fuel moisture being a significant predictor in forested lands. Models demonstrated agreement in capturing the observed spatial and temporal variability incl...
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  • 18
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    Can recent pan-tropical biomass maps be used to derive alternative Tier 1 values for reporting REDD+ activities under UNFCCC? (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-12-09
    Description: The IPCC Guidelines propose 3 Tier levels for greenhouse gas monitoring within the forest land category with a hierarchical order in terms of accuracy, data requirements and complexity. Due to missing data and/or capacities, many developing countries, potentially interested in the reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation scheme, have to rely on Tier 1 default values with highest uncertainties. A possible way to increase the credibility of uncertain estimates is to apply a conservative approach, for which standard statistical information is needed. However, such information is currently not available for the IPCC values. In our study we combine a recent global forest mask, an ecological zoning map and the pan-tropical AGB datasets of Saatchi and Baccini to derive mean forest AGB values per ecological zone and continent as well as their corresponding confidence intervals. Such analysis can be considered transparent as the datasets/methodologies are well document...
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  • 19
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    Effects of excess ground ice on projections of permafrost in a warming climate (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-12-09
    Description: In permafrost soils, ‘excess ice’, also referred to as ground ice, exists in amounts exceeding soil porosity in forms such as ice lenses and wedges. Here, we incorporate a simple representation of excess ice in the Community Land Model (CLM4.5) to investigate how excess ice affects projected permafrost thaw and associated hydrologic responses. We initialize spatially explicit excess ice obtained from the Circum-Arctic Map of Permafrost and Ground-Ice Conditions. The excess ice in the model acts to slightly reduce projected soil warming by about 0.35 °C by 2100 in a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. The presence of excess ice slows permafrost thaw at a given location with about a 10 year delay in permafrost thaw at 3 m depth at most high excess ice locations. The soil moisture response to excess ice melt is transient and depends largely on the timing of thaw with wetter/saturated soil moisture conditions persisting slightly longer due to delayed post-thaw drainage. Based on ...
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  • 20
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    Will water scarcity in semiarid regions limit hydraulic fracturing of shale plays? (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-12-09
    Description: There is increasing concern about water constraints limiting oil and gas production using hydraulic fracturing (HF) in shale plays, particularly in semiarid regions and during droughts. Here we evaluate HF vulnerability by comparing HF water demand with supply in the semiarid Texas Eagle Ford play, the largest shale oil producer globally. Current HF water demand (18 billion gallons, bgal; 68 billion liters, bL in 2013) equates to ∼16% of total water consumption in the play area. Projected HF water demand of ∼330 bgal with ∼62 000 additional wells over the next 20 years equates to ∼10% of historic groundwater depletion from regional irrigation. Estimated potential freshwater supplies include ∼1000 bgal over 20 yr from recharge and ∼10 000 bgal from aquifer storage, with land-owner lease agreements often stipulating purchase of freshwater. However, pumpage has resulted in excessive drawdown locally with estimated declines of ∼100–200 ft in ∼6% of the western play area since HF bega...
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  • 21
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    A nitrogen budget for Denmark; developments between 1990 and 2010, and prospects for the future (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-11-29
    Description: A nitrogen (N) budget for Denmark has been developed for the years 1990 to 2010, describing the inputs and outputs at the national scale and the internal flows between relevant sectors of the economy. Satisfactorily closing the N budgets for some sectors of the economy was not possible, due to missing or contradictory information. The budgets were nevertheless considered sufficiently reliable to quantify the major flows. Agriculture was responsible for the majority of inputs, though fisheries and energy generation also made significant contributions. Agriculture was the main source of N input to the aquatic environment, whereas agriculture, energy generation and transport all contributed to emissions of reactive N gases to the atmosphere. Significant reductions in inputs of reactive N have been achieved during the 20 years, mainly by restricting the use of N for crop production and improving livestock feeding. This reduction has helped reduce nitrate leaching by about half. Measu...
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  • 22
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    Regional vegetation dynamics and its response to climate change—a case study in the Tao River Basin in Northwestern China (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-12-03
    Description: The 30-year normalized-difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series from AVHRR/MODIS satellite sensors was used in this study to assess the regional vegetation dynamic changes in the Tao River Basin, which cuts across the Eastern Tibetan Plateau (ETP) and the Southwestern Loess Plateau (SLP). First, principal component and correlation analyses were carried out to determine the key climatic variables driving ecological change in the region. Then, regression models were tested to correlate NDVI with the selected climatic variables to determine their predictive power. Finally, Sen’s slope method was used to determine how terrestrial vegetation has responded to regional climate change in the region. The results indicated an average winter season NDVI value of 0.14 in the ETP but only 0.04 in the SLP. Primarily driven by increasing temperature, vegetation growth has generally been enhanced since 1981; spring NDVI increased by 0.03 every 10 years in the ETP and 0.02 in the SLP. Furth...
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  • 23
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    Modelling agro-forestry scenarios for ammonia abatement in the landscape (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-12-03
    Description: Ammonia emissions from livestock production can have negative impacts on nearby protected sites and ecosystems that are sensitive to eutrophication and acidification. Trees are effective scavengers of both gaseous and particulate pollutants from the atmosphere making tree belts potentially effective landscape features to support strategies aiming to reduce ammonia impacts. This research used the MODDAS-THETIS a coupled turbulence and deposition turbulence model, to examine the relationships between tree canopy structure and ammonia capture for three source types—animal housing, slurry lagoon, and livestock under a tree canopy. By altering the canopy length, leaf area index, leaf area density, and height of the canopy in the model the capture efficiencies varied substantially. A maximum of 27% of the emitted ammonia was captured by tree canopy for the animal housing source, for the slurry lagoon the maximum was 19%, while the livestock under trees attained a maximum of 60% recaptu...
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  • 24
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    Maximum warming occurs about one decade after a carbon dioxide emission (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-12-03
    Description: It is known that carbon dioxide emissions cause the Earth to warm, but no previous study has focused on examining how long it takes to reach maximum warming following a particular CO 2 emission. Using conjoined results of carbon-cycle and physical-climate model intercomparison projects (Taylor et al 2012, Joos et al 2013), we find the median time between an emission and maximum warming is 10.1 years, with a 90% probability range of 6.6–30.7 years. We evaluate uncertainties in timing and amount of warming, partitioning them into three contributing factors: carbon cycle, climate sensitivity and ocean thermal inertia. If uncertainty in any one factor is reduced to zero without reducing uncertainty in the other factors, the majority of overall uncertainty remains. Thus, narrowing uncertainty in century-scale warming depends on narrowing uncertainty in all contributing factors. Our results indicate that benefit from avoided climate damage from avoided CO 2
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  • 25
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    Shifting primary energy source and NOx emission location with plug-in hybrid vehicles (2011)
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    Publication Date: 2011-05-10
    Description: Author(s): Deniz Karman Affiliation(s): Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada
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  • 26
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    Tundra vegetation effects on pan-Arctic albedo (2011)
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    Publication Date: 2011-06-08
    Description: Author(s): Michael M Loranty, Scott J Goetz and Pieter S A Beck
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  • 27
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    Projected 21st century climate change for wolverine habitats within the contiguous United States (2011)
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    Publication Date: 2011-01-26
    Description: Author(s): Synte Peacock Affiliation(s): National Center for Atmospheric Research, 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80305, USA
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    The role of albedo and accumulation in the 2010 melting record in Greenland (2011)
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    Publication Date: 2011-01-22
    Description: Author(s): M Tedesco, X Fettweis, M R van den Broeke, R S W van de Wal, C J P P Smeets, W J van de Berg, M C Serreze and J E Box Affiliation(s): The City College of New York, CUNY, New York, NY, USA; University of Liege, Liege, Belgium; Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht (IMAU), Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands; National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, CO, USA; Department of Geography, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA; Byrd Polar Research Center, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA
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  • 29
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    Hydrologic and land–energy feedbacks of agricultural water management practices (2011)
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    Publication Date: 2011-01-22
    Description: Author(s): Ian M Ferguson and Reed M Maxwell Affiliation(s): Department of Geology and Geological Engineering, Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois Street, Golden, CO 80401, USA
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  • 30
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    The paper trail of the 13C of atmospheric CO2 since the industrial revolution period (2011)
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    Publication Date: 2011-07-15
    Description: Author(s): Dan Yakir Affiliation(s): Environmental Sciences and Energy Research, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot 76100, Israel
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  • 31
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    Preparing US community greenhouse gas inventories for climate action plans (2011)
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    Publication Date: 2011-07-02
    Description: Author(s): Michael Blackhurst, H Scott Matthews, Aurora L Sharrard, Chris T Hendrickson and Ines Lima Azevedo Affiliation(s): Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station C1752, Austin, TX 78712-0276, USA; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, 119 Porter Hall, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA; Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, 119 Porter Hall, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA; Green Building Alliance, 333 East Carson Street, Suite 331, Pittsburgh, PA 15219, USA
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  • 32
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    Emergence timescales for detection of anthropogenic climate change in US tropical cyclone loss data (2011)
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    Publication Date: 2011-01-12
    Description: Author(s): Ryan P Crompton, Roger A Pielke Jr and K John McAneney Affiliation(s): Risk Frontiers, Macquarie University, NSW, 2109, Australia; Center for Science and Technology Policy Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
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  • 33
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    Effective media reporting of sea level rise projections: 1989–2009 (2011)
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    Publication Date: 2011-01-14
    Description: Author(s): U K Rick, M T Boykoff and R A Pielke Jr Affiliation(s): Center for Science and Technology Policy Research, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science, University of Colorado, UCB 488, Boulder, CO 80309-0488, USA
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  • 34
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    Monitoring, reporting and verification for national REDD + programmes: two proposals (2011)
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    Publication Date: 2011-01-12
    Description: Author(s): Martin Herold and Margaret Skutsch Affiliation(s): Center for Geoinformation, Department of Environmental Science, Wageningen University, Droevendaalsesteeg 3, 6708 PB Wageningen, The Netherlands; Centro de Investigaciones en Geografia Ambiental, UNAM Campus Morelia, Mexico
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  • 35
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    Discrepancies in historical emissions point to a wider 2020 gap between 2 °C benchmarks and aggregated national mitigation pledges (2011)
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    Publication Date: 2011-04-08
    Description: Author(s): Joeri Rogelj, William Hare, Claudine Chen and Malte Meinshausen Affiliation(s): Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Universitatstrasse 16, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland; PRIMAP Group, Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), PO Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany; Climate Analytics GmbH, Telegrafenberg A26, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
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  • 36
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    Dynamics of the larch taiga–permafrost coupled system in Siberia under climate change (2011)
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    Publication Date: 2011-04-19
    Description: Author(s): Ningning Zhang, Tetsuzo Yasunari and Takeshi Ohta Affiliation(s): Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Aichi 464-8601, Japan; State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, People's Republic of China; Hydrospheric Atmospheric Research Center, Nagoya University, Nagoya 464-8601, Japan; Study Consortium for Earth-Life Interactive Systems (SELIS) of Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan; Graduate School of Bioagricultural Sciences, Nagoya University, Nagoya, 464-8601, Japan
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    Diagnosing the uncertainty and detectability of emission reductions for REDD + under current capabilities: an example for Panama (2011)
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    Publication Date: 2011-04-21
    Description: Author(s): Johanne Pelletier, Navin Ramankutty and Catherine Potvin Affiliation(s): Department of Biology and Global Environmental and Climate Change Center, McGill University, 1205 Dr Penfield, Montreal, QC, H3A 1B1, Canada; Department of Geography and Global Environmental and Climate Change Center, McGill University, 805 Sherbrooke Street W., Montreal, QC, H3A 2K6, Canada; Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Apartado 2072, Balboa, Panama
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  • 38
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    Comparing post-combustion CO2 capture operation at retrofitted coal-fired power plants in the Texas and Great Britain electric grids (2011)
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    Publication Date: 2011-04-08
    Description: Author(s): Stuart M Cohen, Hannah L Chalmers, Michael E Webber and Carey W King Affiliation(s): Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station C2200, Austin, TX 78712, USA; Institute for Energy Systems, School of Engineering, University of Edinburgh, King's Buildings, Mayfield Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JL, UK; Center for International Energy and Environmental Policy, The University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station C9000, Austin, TX 78712, USA
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  • 39
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    Air quality impacts of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in Texas: evaluating three battery charging scenarios (2011)
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    Publication Date: 2011-04-20
    Description: Author(s): Tammy M Thompson, Carey W King, David T Allen and Michael E Webber Affiliation(s): Joint Program for the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Building 54-1810, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA; Center for International Energy and Environmental Policy, University of Texas at Austin, TX 78712, USA; Center for Energy and Environmental Resources, University of Texas, M/C R7100, 10100 Burnet Road, Austin, TX 78758, USA
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    Boundary issues (2011)
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    Publication Date: 2011-03-29
    Description: Author(s): Alan R Townsend and Stephen Porder Affiliation(s): Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Studies Program and INSTAAR, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912, USA
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  • 41
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    Regional climate consequences of large-scale cool roof and photovoltaic array deployment (2011)
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    Publication Date: 2011-07-02
    Description: Author(s): Dev Millstein and Surabi Menon Affiliation(s): Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA
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    Energy solutions in rural Africa: mapping electrification costs of distributed solar and diesel generation versus grid extension (2011)
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    Publication Date: 2011-07-02
    Description: Author(s): S Szabo, K Bodis, T Huld and M Moner-Girona Affiliation(s): European Commission Joint Research Centre, Institute for Energy, Renewable Energy Unit, 2749 via Enrico Fermi, TP450, 21027 Ispra (VA), Italy; UNEP Energy Branch Division of Technology, Industry and Economics, 15 rue de Milan, F-75441, Paris CEDEX09, France
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    The response of the climate system to very high greenhouse gas emission scenarios (2011)
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    Publication Date: 2011-07-06
    Description: Author(s): Benjamin M Sanderson, Brian C O'Neill, Jeffrey T Kiehl, Gerald A Meehl, Reto Knutti and Warren M Washington Affiliation(s): National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Switzerland
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  • 44
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    The solar influence on the probability of relatively cold UK winters in the future (2011)
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    Publication Date: 2011-07-06
    Description: Author(s): M Lockwood, R G Harrison, M J Owens, L Barnard, T Woollings and F Steinhilber Affiliation(s): Space and Atmospheric Electricity Group, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Earley Gate, PO Box 243, Reading RG6 6BB, UK; Space Science and Technology Department, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Harwell Campus, Chilton, Didcot, Oxfordshire OX11 0QX, UK; EAWAG, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, PO Box 611, Ueberlandstrasse 133, 8600 Dubendorf, Switzerland
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  • 45
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    Multi-decadal modulation of the El Niño–Indian monsoon relationship by Indian Ocean variability (2011)
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    Publication Date: 2011-07-06
    Description: Author(s): Caroline C Ummenhofer, Alexander Sen Gupta, Yue Li, Andrea S Taschetto and Matthew H England Affiliation(s): Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
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    Decreased surface albedo driven by denser vegetation on the Tibetan Plateau (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-10-03
    Description: The Tibetan Plateau (TP) has fundamental ecological and environmental significance to China and Asia through its influence on regional and continental climates. In recent years, climate warming has caused unprecedented changes to land surface processes on the TP, which would unavoidably undermine the ecological and environmental functions of the TP. Among the numerous land surface processes potentially impacted by climate warming, the effect of vegetation greenness on surface energy balance is one of the most critical, but has been long ignored. In this study, we investigated the spatial and temporal patterns of land surface albedo (LSA) on the TP and evaluated the vegetation greenness in relation to patterns of LSA. We found that LSA has been decreasing in most of the vegetated grasslands on the TP from 2000 to 2013, as compared to a flat trend for desert area. The regions where LSA has been decreasing were spatially correlated to areas of increased vegetation greenness. Along r...
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    Sustainability of global water use: past reconstruction and future projections (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-10-03
    Description: Overuse of surface water and an increasing reliance on nonrenewable groundwater resources have been reported over various regions of the world, casting significant doubt on the sustainable water supply and food production met by irrigation. To assess the limitations of global water resources, numerous indicators have been developed, but they rarely consider nonrenewable water use. In addition, surface water over-abstraction is rarely assessed in the context of human and environmental water needs. Here, we perform a transient assessment of global water use over the historical period 1960–2010 as well as the future projections of 2011–2099, using a newly developed indicator: the blue water sustainability index (BlWSI). The BlWSI incorporates both nonrenewable groundwater use and nonsustainable water use that compromises environmental flow requirements. Our results reveal an increasing trend of water consumed from nonsustainable surface water and groundwater resources over the histo...
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    Comment on ‘Water footprint of marine protein consumption—aquaculture’s link to agriculture’ (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-10-04
    Description: In their article ‘Freshwater savings from marine protein consumption’ (2014 Environ. Res. Lett. 9 [http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/1/014005] 014005 ), Gephart and her colleagues analyzed how consumption of marine animal protein rather than terrestrial animal protein leads to reduced freshwater allocation. They concluded that future water savings from increased marine fish consumption would be possible. We find the approach interesting and, if they only considered marine capture fisheries, their analysis would be quite straightforward and show savings of freshwater. However, both capture fisheries and aquaculture are considered in the analysis, and the fact that marine aquaculture is assumed to have a zero freshwater usage, makes the analysis incomplete. Feed resources used in marine aquaculture contain agriculture compounds, which results in a freshwater footprint. To correct this shortcoming we complement the approach taken by Gephart and her colle...
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    Reply to Comment on ‘Water footprint of marine protein consumption—aquaculture’s link to freshwater’ (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-10-04
    Description: In this reply to ‘water footprint of marine protein consumption—aquaculture’s link to freshwater,’ we argue that Troell et al ’s calculation of the water footprint of marine aquaculture supports our assumption that marine aquaculture requires a negligible amount of freshwater relative to the cost of terrestrial crop substitution that is the focus of our analysis in ‘freshwater savings from marine protein consumption’. We recognize that the water requirements of marine aquaculture could be important for specific countries and will likely become more important at the global level as aquaculture incorporates more terrestrially-based feeds and as aquaculture comprises a larger percentage of total marine fish production. In response to Troell et al ’s comments on stagnant capture fisheries, we clarify that our original discussion encompassed several possible future conditions for these fisheries.
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    Intrinsic climate dependency of ecosystem light and water-use-efficiencies across Australian biomes (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-10-04
    Description: The sensitivity of ecosystem gross primary production (GPP) to availability of water and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) differs among biomes. Here we investigated variations of ecosystem light-use-efficiency (eLUE: GPP/PAR) and water-use-efficiency (eWUE: GPP/evapotranspiration) among seven Australian eddy covariance sites with differing annual precipitation, species composition and temperature. Changes to both eLUE and eWUE were primarily correlated with atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD) at multiple temporal scales across biomes, with minor additional correlations observed with soil moisture and temperature. The effects of leaf area index on eLUE and eWUE were also relatively weak compared to VPD, indicating an intrinsic dependency of eLUE and eWUE on climate. Additionally, eLUE and eWUE were statistically different for biomes between summer and winter, except eWUE for savannas and the grassland. These findings will improve our understanding of how light- and w...
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    Erratum: Effect of permafrost thaw on CO 2 and CH 4 exchange in a western Alaska peatland chronosequence (2013 Environ. Res. Lett. 9 [http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/085004] 085004 ) (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-10-04
    Description: Description unavailable
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    The Haber Bosch–harmful algal bloom (HB–HAB) link (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-10-07
    Description: Large-scale commercialization of the Haber–Bosch (HB) process is resulting in intensification of nitrogen (N) fertilizer use worldwide. Globally N fertilizer use is far outpacing that of phosphorus (P) fertilizer. Much of the increase in N fertilizers is also now in the form of urea, a reduced form of N. Incorporation of these fertilizers into agricultural products is inefficient leading to significant environmental pollution and aquatic eutrophication. Of particular concern is the increased occurrence of harmful algal blooms (HABs) in waters receiving nutrient enriched runoff. Many phytoplankton causing HABs have physiological adaptive strategies that make them favored under conditions of elevated N : P conditions and supply of chemically reduced N (ammonium, urea). We propose that the HB-HAB link is a function of (1) the inefficiency of incorporation of N fertilizers in the food supply chain, the leakiness of the N cycle from crop to table, and the fate of lost N relative to P ...
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    Global analysis of urban surface water supply vulnerability (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-10-07
    Description: This study presents a global analysis of urban water supply vulnerability in 71 surface-water supplied cities, with populations exceeding 750 000 and lacking source water diversity. Vulnerability represents the failure of an urban supply-basin to simultaneously meet demands from human, environmental and agricultural users. We assess a baseline (2010) condition and a future scenario (2040) that considers increased demand from urban population growth and projected agricultural demand. We do not account for climate change, which can potentially exacerbate or reduce urban supply vulnerability. In 2010, 35% of large cities are vulnerable as they compete with agricultural users. By 2040, without additional measures 45% of cities are vulnerable due to increased agricultural and urban demands. Of the vulnerable cities in 2040, the majority are river-supplied with mean flows so low (1200 liters per person per day, l/p/d) that the cities experience ‘chronic water scarcity’ (1370 l/p/d). Re...
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    Parabolic northern-hemisphere river flow teleconnections to El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-10-09
    Description: It is almost universally assumed in statistical hydroclimatology that relationships between large-scale climate indices and local-scale hydrometeorological responses, though possibly nonlinear, are monotonic. However, recent work suggests that northern-hemisphere atmospheric teleconnections to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Arctic Oscillation can be parabolic. The effect has recently been explicitly confirmed in hydrologic responses, though associations are complicated by land surface characteristics and processes, and investigation of water resource implications has been limited to date. Here, we apply an Akaike Information Criterion-based polynomial selection approach to investigate annual flow volume teleconnections for 42 of the northern hemisphere’s largest ocean-reaching rivers. Though we find a rich diversity of responses, parabolic relationships are formally consistent with the data for almost half the rivers, and the optimal model for eight. These highly non...
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    Multiple metrics for quantifying the intensity of water consumption of energy production (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-10-09
    Description: Discussion of the environmental implications of worldwide energy demand is currently dominated by the effects of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions on global climate. At the regional scale, however, water resource challenges associated with energy systems are a growing concern. This paper, based on an inventory of national energy portfolios, posits an indicator-based framework for characterizing regional energy portfolios’ relative water intensity. These calculations extend upon a previous paper that established a method for calculating the national water consumption of energy production (WCEP) at the global level. Intensity indicators are based on normalizing the WCEP results with a set of additional indicators (including population, gross domestic product, total energy production, and regional water availability). The results show great variability in water consumption across nations, as well as across the various water intensity measures that were applied. Therefore, it...
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    Identifying exposure disparities in air pollution epidemiology specific to adverse birth outcomes (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-10-09
    Description: More than 147 million people in the US live in areas where pollutant levels are above regulatory limits and pose a risk to health. Most of the vast network of air pollutant monitors in the US are located in places with higher pollution levels and a higher density of pollutant sources (e.g., point sources from industrial pollution). Vulnerable populations are more likely to live closer to pollutant sources, and thus closer to pollutant monitors. These differential exposures have an impact on maternal and child health; maternal air pollutant exposures have been linked to adverse outcomes such as preterm birth and infant low birth weight. Several studies are highlighted that address methodological approaches in the study of air pollution and health disparities.
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    Erratum: Winter cyclone frequency and following freshet streamflow formation on the rivers in Belarus (2013 Environ. Res. Lett. 9 [http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/9/095005] 095005 ) (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-10-09
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    The state of climate change adaptation in the Arctic (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-10-09
    Description: The Arctic climate is rapidly changing, with wide ranging impacts on natural and social systems. A variety of adaptation policies, programs and practices have been adopted to this end, yet our understanding of if, how, and where adaptation is occurring is limited. In response, this paper develops a systematic approach to characterize the current state of adaptation in the Arctic. Using reported adaptations in the English language peer reviewed literature as our data source, we document 157 discrete adaptation initiatives between 2003 and 2013. Results indicate large variations in adaptation by region and sector, dominated by reporting from North America, particularly with regards to subsistence harvesting by Inuit communities. Few adaptations were documented in the European and Russian Arctic, or have a focus on the business and economy, or infrastructure sectors. Adaptations are being motivated primarily by the combination of climatic and non-climatic factors, have a strong emph...
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    The water consumption of energy production: an international comparison (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-10-09
    Description: Producing energy resources requires significant quantities of fresh water. As an energy sector changes or expands, the mix of technologies deployed to produce fuels and electricity determines the associated burden on regional water resources. Many reports have identified the water consumption of various energy production technologies. This paper synthesizes and expands upon this previous work by exploring the geographic distribution of water use by national energy portfolios. By defining and calculating an indicator to compare the water consumption of energy production for over 150 countries, we estimate that approximately 52 billion cubic meters of fresh water is consumed annually for global energy production. Further, in consolidating the data, it became clear that both the quality of the data and global reporting standards should be improved to track this important variable at the global scale. By introducing a consistent indicator to empirically assess coupled water–energy sy...
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    Robust features of future climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-10-09
    Description: West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate hazards and better quantification and understanding of the impact of climate change on crop yields are urgently needed. Here we provide an assessment of near-term climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa and account for uncertainties both in future climate scenarios and in crop models. Towards this goal, we use simulations of nine bias-corrected CMIP5 climate models and two crop models (SARRA-H and APSIM) to evaluate the robustness of projected crop yield impacts in this area. In broad agreement with the full CMIP5 ensemble, our subset of bias-corrected climate models projects a mean warming of +2.8 °C in the decades of 2031–2060 compared to a baseline of 1961–1990 and a robust change in rainfall in West Africa with less rain in the Western part of the Sahel (Senegal, South-West Mali) and more rain in Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, South-West Niger). Projected rainfall deficits are concentrated in early monsoon season in th...
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    Regional nitrogen budget of the Lake Victoria Basin, East Africa: syntheses, uncertainties and perspectives (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-10-14
    Description: Using the net anthropogenic nitrogen input (NANI) approach we estimated the N budget for the Lake Victoria Basin in East Africa. The NANI of the basin ranged from 887 to 3008 kg N km −2 yr −1 (mean: 1827 kg N km −2 yr −1 ) for the period 1995–2000. The net nitrogen release at basin level is due primarily to livestock and human consumption of feed and foods, contributing between 69% and 85%. Atmospheric oxidized N deposition contributed approximately 14% to the NANI of the Lake Victoria Basin, while either synthetic N fertilizer imports or biological N fixations only contributed less than 6% to the regional NANI. Due to the low N imports of feed and food products (
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    Increasing potential of biomass burning over Sumatra, Indonesia induced by anthropogenic tropical warming (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-10-14
    Description: Uncontrolled biomass burning in Indonesia during drought periods damages the landscape, degrades regional air quality, and acts as a disproportionately large source of greenhouse gas emissions. The expansion of forest fires is mostly observed in October in Sumatra favored by persistent droughts during the dry season from June to November. The contribution of anthropogenic warming to the probability of severe droughts is not yet clear. Here, we show evidence that past events in Sumatra were exacerbated by anthropogenic warming and that they will become more frequent under a future emissions scenario. By conducting two sets of atmospheric general circulation model ensemble experiments driven by observed sea surface temperature for 1960–2011, one with and one without an anthropogenic warming component, we found that a recent weakening of the Walker circulation associated with tropical ocean warming increased the probability of severe droughts in Sumatra, despite increasing tropical-...
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    Reducing uncertainty in nitrogen budgets for African livestock systems (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-10-14
    Description: Livestock is poorly represented in N budgets for the African continent although some studies have examined livestock-related N flows at different levels. Livestock plays an important role in N cycling and therefore on N budgets including livestock-related flows. This study reviews the literature on N budgets for Africa to identify factors contributing to uncertainties. Livestock densities are usually modelled because of the lack of observational spatial data. Even though feed availability and quality varies across seasons, most studies use constant livestock excretion rates, and excreta are usually assumed to be uniformly distributed onto the land. Major uncertainties originate in the fraction of manure managed, and emission factors which may not reflect the situation of Africa. N budgets use coarse assumptions on production, availability, and use of crop residues as livestock feed. No flows between croplands–livestock and rangelands reflect the lack of data. Joint efforts are ne...
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    Heat and drought extremes likely to stress ecosystem productivity equally or more in a warmer, CO 2 rich future (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-10-14
    Description: Reduced carbon uptake caused by recent heat and drought extremes raises concerns about biospheric feedbacks that amplify global warming. However, elevated carbon dioxide is expected to boost terrestrial ecosystem productivity over the 21st century, potentially alleviating some of the adverse carbon impacts of climate extremes. Using CMIP5 earth system model (ESM) results, Ian Williams and colleagues (2014 Environ. Res. Lett. 9 094011) find that the carbon impacts of heat and drought extremes in the future are likely to be similar to those seen in today’s climate only shifted toward fluctuations around a higher average temperature. However, they also find that extremes may become more frequent and longer lived, causing further reductions in carbon uptake. Considering that ESMs generally miss a host of heat and drought induced mortality mechanisms that could exacerbate adverse carbon impacts, it is logical to expect that the impacts of today’s heat and drought extreme...
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    Do US metropolitan core counties have lower scope 1 and 2 CO 2 emissions than less urbanized counties? (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-10-14
    Description: Recent sustainability research has focused on urban systems given their high share of environmental impacts and potential for centralized impact mitigation. Recent research emphasizes descriptive statistics from place-based case studies to argue for policy action. This limits the potential for general insights and decision support. Here, we implement generalized linear and multiple linear regression analyses to obtain more robust insights on the relationship between urbanization and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the US We used consistently derived county-level scope 1 and scope 2 GHG inventories for our response variable while predictor variables included dummy-coded variables for county geographic type (central, outlying, and nonmetropolitan), median household income, population density, and climate indices (heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD)). We find that there is not enough statistical evidence indicating per capita scope 1 and 2 emissions differ by g...
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    A hybrid life-cycle inventory for multi-crystalline silicon PV module manufacturing in China (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-11-04
    Description: China is the world?s largest manufacturer of multi-crystalline silicon photovoltaic (mc-Si PV) modules, which is a key enabling technology in the global transition to renewable electric power systems. This study presents a hybrid life-cycle inventory (LCI) of Chinese mc-Si PV modules, which fills a critical knowledge gap on the environmental implications of mc-Si PV module manufacturing in China. The hybrid LCI approach combines process-based LCI data for module and poly-silicon manufacturing plants with a 2007 China IO-LCI model for production of raw material and fuel inputs to estimate ?cradle to gate? primary energy use, water consumption, and major air pollutant emissions (carbon dioxide, methane, sulfur dioxide, nitrous oxide, and nitrogen oxides). Results suggest that mc-Si PV modules from China may come with higher environmental burdens that one might estimate if one were using LCI results for mc-Si PV modules manufactured elsewhere. These higher burdens can be reasonably ...
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    Global assessment of urban and peri-urban agriculture: irrigated and rainfed croplands (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-11-04
    Description: The role of urban agriculture in global food security is a topic of increasing discussion. Existing research on urban and peri-urban agriculture consists largely of case studies that frequently use disparate definitions of urban and peri-urban agriculture depending on the local context and study objectives. This lack of consistency makes quantification of the extent of this practice at the global scale difficult. This study instead integrates global data on croplands and urban extents using spatial overlay analysis to estimate the global area of urban and peri-urban irrigated and rainfed croplands. The global area of urban irrigated croplands was estimated at about 24 Mha (11.0 percent of all irrigated croplands) with a cropping intensity of 1.48. The global area of urban rainfed croplands found was approximately 44 Mha (4.7 percent of all rainfed croplands) with a cropping intensity of 1.03. These values were derived from the MIRCA2000 Maximum Monthly Cropped Area Grids for irri...
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    Feed and manure use in low-N-input and high-N-input dairy cattle production systems (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-11-04
    Description: In most parts of Sub-Saharan Africa fertilizers and feeds are costly, not readily available and used sparingly in agricultural production. In many parts of Western Europe, North America, and Oceania fertilizers and feeds are relatively inexpensive, readily available and used abundantly to maximize profitable agricultural production. A case study, dairy systems approach was used to illustrate how differences in feed and manure management in a low-N-input dairy cattle system (Niger, West Africa) and a high-N-input dairy production system (Wisconsin, USA) impact agricultural production and environmental N loss. In Niger, an additional daily feed N intake of 114 g per dairy animal unit (AU, 1000 kg live weight) could increase annual milk production from 560 to 1320 kg AU ?1 , and the additional manure N could greatly increase millet production. In Wisconsin, reductions in daily feed N intake of 100 g AU ?1 would not greatly impact milk production but decrease urina...
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    Effects of thermo-erosion gullying on hydrologic flow networks, discharge and soil loss (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-10-22
    Description: Thermo-erosion gullies in continuous permafrost regions where ice-wedge polygons are widespread contribute and change the drainage of periglacial landscapes. Gullying processes are causing long-term impacts to the Arctic landscape such as drainage network restructuring, permafrost erosion, sediment transport. Between 2009 and 2013, 35 gullies were mapped in a polygon terrace in the valley of the Glacier C-79 on Bylot Island, Nunavut (Canada), one of which was monitored for its hydrology. A gully (R08p) initiated in 1999 in a low-center polygon terrace. Between 1999 and 2013, 202 polygons over a surface of 28 891 m 2 were breached by gullying. Overall, 1401 polygons were similarly breached on the terrace in the valley before 2013. R08p is fed by a 1.74 km 2 watershed and the hydrological regime is characterized by peak flows of 0.69 m 3 s −1 and a cumulative volume of 229 662 m 3 for 2013. Historic aerial photography from 1972 and ...
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    Anthropogenic emissions of highly reactive volatile organic compounds in eastern Texas inferred from oversampling of satellite (OMI) measurements of HCHO columns (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-11-04
    Description: Satellite observations of formaldehyde (HCHO) columns provide top-down constraints on emissions of highly reactive volatile organic compounds (HRVOCs). This approach has been used previously in the US to estimate isoprene emissions from vegetation, but application to anthropogenic emissions has been stymied by lack of a discernable HCHO signal. Here we show that temporal oversampling of HCHO data from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) for 2005?2008 enables detection of urban and industrial plumes in eastern Texas including Houston, Port Arthur, and Dallas/Fort Worth. By spatially integrating the HCHO enhancement in the Houston plume observed by OMI we estimate an anthropogenic HCHO source of 250???140 kmol h ?1 . This implies that anthropogenic HRVOC emissions in Houston are 4.8???2.7 times higher than reported by the US Environmental Protection Agency inventory, and is consistent with field studies identifying large ethene and propene emissions from petrochemical in...
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    Nitrogen-neutrality: a step towards sustainability (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-11-04
    Description: We propose a novel indicator measuring one dimension of the sustainability of an entity in modern societies: Nitrogen-neutrality. N-neutrality strives to offset Nr releases an entity exerts on the environment from the release of reactive nitrogen (Nr) to the environment by reducing it and by offsetting the Nr releases elsewhere. N-neutrality also aims to increase awareness about the consequences of unintentional releases of nitrogen to the environment. N-neutrality is composed of two quantified elements: Nr released by an entity (e.g. on the basis of the N footprint) and Nr reduction from management and offset projects (N offset). It includes management strategies to reduce nitrogen losses before they occur (e.g., through energy conservation). Each of those elements faces specific challenges with regard to data availability and conceptual development. Impacts of Nr releases to the environment are manifold, and the impact profile of one unit of Nr release depends strongly on the c...
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    Nitrogen footprints: past, present and future (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-11-04
    Description: The human alteration of the nitrogen cycle has evolved from minimal in the mid-19th century to extensive in the present time. The consequences to human and environmental health are significant. While much attention has been given to the extent and impacts of the alteration, little attention has been given to those entities (i.e., consumers, institutions) that use the resources that result in extensive reactive nitrogen (Nr) creation. One strategy for assessment is the use of nitrogen footprint tools. A nitrogen footprint is generally defined as the total amount of Nr released to the environment as a result of an entity?s consumption patterns. This paper reviews a number of nitrogen footprint tools (N-Calculator, N-Institution, N-Label, N-Neutrality, N-Indicator) that are designed to provide that attention. It reviews N-footprint tools for consumers as a function of the country that they live in (N-Calculator, N-Indicator) and the products they buy (N-Label), for the institutions ...
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    A novel remote sensing algorithm to quantify phycocyanin in cyanobacterial algal blooms (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-11-04
    Description: We present a novel three-band algorithm (PC 3 ) to retrieve phycocyanin (PC) pigment concentration in cyanobacteria laden inland waters. The water sample and remote sensing reflectance data used for PC 3 calibration and validation were acquired from highly turbid productive catfish aquaculture ponds. Since the characteristic PC absorption feature at 620 nm is contaminated with residual chlorophyll- a (Chl- a ) absorption, we propose a coefficient ( ? ) for isolating the PC absorption component at 620 nm. Results show that inclusion of the model coefficient relating Chl- a absorption at 620 nm?665 nm enables PC 3 to compensate for the confounding effect of Chl- a at the PC absorption band and considerably increases the accuracy of the PC prediction algorithm. In the current dataset, PC 3 produced the lowest mean relative error of prediction among all PC algorithms considered in this research. Moreover, PC 3
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    A growing commitment to future CO 2 emissions (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-11-04
    Description: The construction of new fossil fuel energy infrastructure implies a commitment to burn fossil fuels and therefore produce CO 2 emissions for several decades into the future. The recent letter by Davis and Socolow (2014 Environ. Res. Lett. 9 [http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/084018] 084018 ) highlights the current and growing commitment to future emissions, and argues that this emission commitment should be accounted for at the time of new construction. The idea of accounting for future committed emissions associated with current energy policy decisions is compelling and could equally be applied to other aspects of the fossil fuel supply chain, such as investing in the development of new fossil fuel reserves. There is evidence, for example, that oil reserves are growing faster that the rate of extraction, implying a growing future emissions commitment that is likely incompatible with climate mitigation targets.
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    Heterotrophic respiration in drained tropical peat is greatly affected by temperature—a passive ecosystem cooling experiment (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-10-28
    Description: Vast areas of deforested tropical peatlands do not receive noteworthy shading by vegetation, which increases the amount of solar radiation reaching the peat surface. Peat temperature dynamics and heterotrophic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O) and methane (CH 4 ) fluxes were monitored under four shading conditions, i.e. unshaded, 28%, 51% and 90% shading at experiment sites established on reclaimed fallow agricultural- and degraded sites in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. Groundwater tables on the sites were at about 50 cm depth, the sites were maintained vegetation free and root ingrowth to gas flux monitoring locations was prevented. Half of the four shading areas received NPK-fertilization 50 kg ha −1 for each of N, P and K during the experiment and the other half was unfertilized. Increases in shading created a lasting decrease in peat temperatures, and decreased diurnal temperature fluctuations, in comparison to less shaded plo...
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    Winter precipitation effect in a mid-latitude temperature-limited environment: the case of common juniper at high elevation in the Alps (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-10-28
    Description: Common juniper ( Juniperus communis L.) is by far the most widespread conifer in the world. However, tree-ring research dealing with this species is still scarce, mainly due to the difficulty in crossdating associated with the irregular stem shape with strip-bark growth form in older individuals and the high number of missing and wedging rings. Given that many different species of the same genus have been successfully used in tree-ring investigations and proved to be reliable climate proxies, this study aims to (i) test the possibility to successfully apply dendrochronological techniques on common juniper growing above the treeline and (ii) verify the climate sensitivity of the species with special regard to winter precipitation, a climatic factor that generally does not affect tree-ring growth in all Alpine high-elevation tree species. Almost 90 samples have been collected in three sites in the central and eastern Alps, all between 2100 and 2400 m in elevation. Despite cro...
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    50 year trends in nitrogen use efficiency of world cropping systems: the relationship between yield and nitrogen input to cropland (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-10-28
    Description: Nitrogen (N) is crucial for crop productivity. However, nowadays more than half of the N added to cropland is lost to the environment, wasting the resource, producing threats to air, water, soil and biodiversity, and generating greenhouse gas emissions. Based on FAO data, we have reconstructed the trajectory followed, in the past 50 years, by 124 countries in terms of crop yield and total nitrogen inputs to cropland (manure, synthetic fertilizer, symbiotic fixation and atmospheric deposition). During the last five decades, the response of agricultural systems to increased nitrogen fertilization has evolved differently in the different world countries. While some countries have improved their agro-environmental performances, in others the increased fertilization has produced low agronomical benefits and higher environmental losses. Our data also suggest that, in general, those countries using a higher proportion of N inputs from symbiotic N fixation rather than from synthetic fert...
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    Inventories and scenarios of nitrous oxide emissions (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-10-28
    Description: Effective mitigation for N 2 O emissions, now the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas and the largest remaining anthropogenic source of stratospheric ozone depleting substances, requires understanding of the sources and how they may increase this century. Here we update estimates and their uncertainties for current anthropogenic and natural N 2 O emissions and for emissions scenarios to 2050. Although major uncertainties remain, ‘bottom-up’ inventories and ‘top-down’ atmospheric modeling yield estimates that are in broad agreement. Global natural N 2 O emissions are most likely between 10 and 12 Tg N 2 O-N yr −1 . Net anthropogenic N 2 O emissions are now about 5.3 Tg N 2 O-N yr −1 . Gross anthropogenic emissions by sector are 66% from agriculture, 15% from energy and transport sectors, 11% from biomass burning, and 8% from other sources. A decrease in natural emissions from tropical soils due t...
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    Policies for agricultural nitrogen management?trends, challenges and prospects for improved efficiency in Denmark (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-11-04
    Description: With more than 60% of the land farmed, with vulnerable freshwater and marine environments, and with one of the most intensive, export-oriented livestock sectors in the world, the nitrogen (N) pollution pressure from Danish agriculture is severe. Consequently, a series of policy action plans have been implemented since the mid 1980s with significant effects on the surplus, efficiency and environmental loadings of N. This paper reviews the policies and actions taken and their ability to mitigate effects of reactive N (N r ) while maintaining agricultural production. In summary, the average N-surplus has been reduced from approximately 170 kg N ha ?1 yr ?1 to below 100 kg N ha ?1 yr ?1 during the past 30 yrs, while the overall N-efficiency for the agricultural sector (crop?+?livestock farming) has increased from around 20?30% to 40?45%, the N-leaching from the field root zone has been halved, and N losses to the aquatic and atmospheri...
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    Commitment accounting of CO 2 emissions (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-08-27
    Description: The world not only continues to build new coal-fired power plants, but built more new coal plants in the past decade than in any previous decade. Worldwide, an average of 89 gigawatts per year (GW yr –1 ) of new coal generating capacity was added between 2010 and 2012, 23 GW yr –1 more than in the 2000–2009 time period and 56 GW yr –1 more than in the 1990–1999 time period. Natural gas plants show a similar pattern. Assuming these plants operate for 40 years, the fossil-fuel burning plants built in 2012 will emit approximately 19 billion tons of CO 2 (Gt CO 2 ) over their lifetimes, versus 14 Gt CO 2 actually emitted by all operating fossil fuel power plants in 2012. We find that total committed emissions related to the power sector are growing at a rate of about 4% per year, and reached 307 (with an estimated uncertainty of 192–439) Gt CO 2 in 2012. These facts are not well known in the energy policy community, ...
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    Quantifying yield gaps in wheat production in Russia (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-08-28
    Description: Crop yields must increase substantially to meet the increasing demands for agricultural products. Crop yield increases are particularly important for Russia because low crop yields prevail across Russia’s widespread and fertile land resources. However, reliable data are lacking regarding the spatial distribution of potential yields in Russia, which can be used to determine yield gaps. We used a crop growth model to determine the yield potentials and yield gaps of winter and spring wheat at the provincial level across European Russia. We modeled the annual yield potentials from 1995 to 2006 with optimal nitrogen supplies for both rainfed and irrigated conditions. Overall, the results suggest yield gaps of 1.51–2.10 t ha −1 , or 44–52% of the yield potential under rainfed conditions. Under irrigated conditions, yield gaps of 3.14–3.30 t ha −1 , or 62–63% of the yield potential, were observed. However, recurring droughts cause large fluctuations in yield potentials...
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    Projected increases in summer and winter UK sub-daily precipitation extremes from high-resolution regional climate models (2014)
    Institute of Physics (IOP)
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    Publication Date: 2014-08-28
    Description: Summer (June–July–August; JJA) UK precipitation extremes projections from two UK Met Office high-resolution (12 km and 1.5 km) regional climate models (RCMs) are shown to be resolution dependent. The 1.5 km RCM projects a uniform ( ##IMG## [http://ej.iop.org/images/1748-9326/9/8/084019/erl499663ieqn1.gif] {$\approx 10\%$} ) increase in 1 h JJA precipitation intensities across a range of return periods. The 12 km RCM, in contrast, projects decreases in short return period (≦̸5 years) events but strong increases in long return period (⩾20 years) events. We have low physical and statistical confidence in the 12 km RCM projections for longer return periods. Both models show evidence for longer dry periods between events. In winter (December–January–February; DJF), the models show larger return level increases (⩾40%). Both DJF projections are consistent with results from previous work based on coarser resolution models.
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    Bacterial ice nuclei impact cloud lifetime and radiative properties and reduce atmospheric heat loss in the BRAMS simulation model (2014)
    Institute of Physics (IOP)
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    Publication Date: 2014-08-28
    Description: This study examines the effect of the bacterial species Pseudomonas syringae acting as ice nuclei (IN) on cloud properties to understand its impact on local radiative budget and heating rates. These bacteria may become active IN at temperatures as warm as −2 °C. Numerical simulations were developed using the Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Model System (BRAMS). To investigate the isolated effect of bacterial IN, four scenarios were created considering only homogeneous and bacterial ice nucleation, with 1, 10 and 100 IN per cubic meter of cloud volume and one with no bacteria. Moreover, two other scenarios were generated: the BRAMS default parameterization and its combination with bacterial IN. The model reproduced a strong convective cell over São Paulo on 3 March 2003. Results showed that bacterial IN may change cloud evolution as well as its microphysical properties, which in turn influence cloud radiative properties. For example, the reflected shortwave irradiance over a...
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    Can air temperature be used to project influences of climate change on stream temperature? (2014)
    Institute of Physics (IOP)
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    Publication Date: 2014-08-28
    Description: Worldwide, lack of data on stream temperature has motivated the use of regression-based statistical models to predict stream temperatures based on more widely available data on air temperatures. Such models have been widely applied to project responses of stream temperatures under climate change, but the performance of these models has not been fully evaluated. To address this knowledge gap, we examined the performance of two widely used linear and nonlinear regression models that predict stream temperatures based on air temperatures. We evaluated model performance and temporal stability of model parameters in a suite of regulated and unregulated streams with 11–44 years of stream temperature data. Although such models may have validity when predicting stream temperatures within the span of time that corresponds to the data used to develop them, model predictions did not transfer well to other time periods. Validation of model predictions of most recent stream temperatures, based...
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  • 85
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    Effect of permafrost thaw on CO 2 and CH 4 exchange in a western Alaska peatland chronosequence (2014)
    Institute of Physics (IOP)
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    Publication Date: 2014-08-28
    Description: Permafrost soils store over half of global soil carbon (C), and northern frozen peatlands store about 10% of global permafrost C. With thaw, inundation of high latitude lowland peatlands typically increases the surface-atmosphere flux of methane (CH 4 ), a potent greenhouse gas. To examine the effects of lowland permafrost thaw over millennial timescales, we measured carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and CH 4 exchange along sites that constitute a ∼1000 yr thaw chronosequence of thermokarst collapse bogs and adjacent fen locations at Innoko Flats Wildlife Refuge in western Alaska. Peak CH 4 exchange in July (123 ± 71 mg CH 4 –C m −2 d −1 ) was observed in features that have been thawed for 30 to 70 (
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    Influence of projected Arctic sea ice loss on polar stratospheric ozone and circulation in spring (2014)
    Institute of Physics (IOP)
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    Publication Date: 2014-08-28
    Description: The impact of projected Arctic sea ice loss on the stratosphere is investigated using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), a state-of-the-art coupled chemistry climate model. Two 91-year simulations are conducted: one with a repeating seasonal cycle of Arctic sea ice for the late twentieth-century, taken from the fully coupled WACCM historical run; the other with Arctic sea ice for the late twenty-first century, obtained from the fully coupled WACCM RCP8.5 run. In response to Arctic sea ice loss, polar cap stratospheric ozone decreases by 13 DU (34 DU at the North Pole) in spring, confirming the results of Scinocca et al (2009 Geophys. Res. Lett. 36 [http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009gl041239] L24701 ). The ozone loss is dynamically initiated in March by a suppression of upward-propagating planetary waves, possibly related to the destructive interference between the forced wave number 1 and its climatology. The diminished upward wave...
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    The imprint of crop choice on global nutrient needs (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-08-28
    Description: Solutions to meet growing food requirements in a world of limited suitable land and degrading environment focus mainly on increasing crop yields, particularly in poorly performing regions, and reducing animal product consumption. Increasing yields could alleviate land requirements, but imposing higher soil nutrient withdrawals and in most cases larger fertilizer inputs. Lowering animal product consumption favors a more efficient use of land as well as soil and fertilizer nutrients; yet actual saving may largely depend on which crops and how much fertilizer are used to feed livestock versus people. We show, with a global analysis, how the choice of cultivated plant species used to feed people and livestock influences global food production as well as soil nutrient withdrawals and fertilizer additions. The 3 to 15-fold differences in soil nutrient withdrawals per unit of energy or protein produced that we report across major crops explain how composition shifts over the last 20 yea...
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  • 88
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    Contribution of vegetation and peat fires to particulate air pollution in Southeast Asia (2014)
    Institute of Physics (IOP)
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    Publication Date: 2014-09-27
    Description: Smoke haze, caused by vegetation and peat fires in Southeast Asia, is of major concern because of its adverse impact on regional air quality. We apply two different methods (a chemical transport model and a Lagrangian atmospheric transport model) to identify the locations of fires contributing to the increased mass concentration of particulate matter with diameters less than 2.5 μ m (PM 2.5 ) in Singapore over the period 2004–09. We find that fires in southern Sumatra account for the greatest percentage of the total fire enhancement to PM 2.5 concentrations in Singapore (42–62%), with fires in central Sumatra and Kalimantan contributing 21–35% and 14–15%, respectively. Furthermore, we find that fires in these regions also increase PM 2.5 concentrations in other major cities across Southeast Asia. Our results suggest that acting to reduce fires in southern and central Sumatra (specifically in the eastern parts of the provinces of Jambi, South Sum...
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    Chinese coastal seas are facing heavy atmospheric nitrogen deposition (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-09-25
    Description: As the amount of reactive nitrogen (N) generated and emitted increases the amount of N deposition and its contribution to eutrophication or harmful algal blooms in the coastal zones are becoming issues of environmental concern. To quantify N deposition in coastal seas of China we selected six typical coastal sites from North to South in 2011. Concentrations of NH 3 , HNO 3 , NO 2 , particulate NH 4 + (pNH 4 + ) and pNO 3 − ranged from 1.97– 4.88, 0.46 –1.22, 3.03 –7.09, 2.24 – 4.90 and 1.13–2.63 μ g N m −3 at Dalian (DL), Changdao (CD), Linshandao (LS), Fenghua (FH), Fuzhou (FZ), and Zhanjiang (ZJ) sites, respectively. Volume-weighted NO 3 − –N and NH 4 + –N concentrations in precipitation varied from 0.46 to 1.67 and 0.47 to 1.31 mg N L −1 at the six sites. Dry, wet and total deposition rates of N were 7.8–23.1, 14.2–25.2 and 22.0 ...
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    The effect of natural gas supply on US renewable energy and CO 2 emissions (2014)
    Institute of Physics (IOP)
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    Publication Date: 2014-09-25
    Description: Increased use of natural gas has been promoted as a means of decarbonizing the US power sector, because of superior generator efficiency and lower CO 2 emissions per unit of electricity than coal. We model the effect of different gas supplies on the US power sector and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Across a range of climate policies, we find that abundant natural gas decreases use of both coal and renewable energy technologies in the future. Without a climate policy, overall electricity use also increases as the gas supply increases. With reduced deployment of lower-carbon renewable energies and increased electricity consumption, the effect of higher gas supplies on GHG emissions is small: cumulative emissions 2013–55 in our high gas supply scenario are 2% less than in our low gas supply scenario, when there are no new climate policies and a methane leakage rate of 1.5% is assumed. Assuming leakage rates of 0 or 3% does not substantially alter this finding. In our res...
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    On the signature of the cirrus twilight zone (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-09-25
    Description: Cirrus clouds are known to play a key role in the climate system, but their overall effect on Earth’s radiation budget is not yet fully quantified. The uncertainties are, in part, due to ambiguities in cirrus extent or coverage. Here we show that despite careful filtering of cloudy pixels, cirrus clouds have a clear statistical signature. This signature can be estimated by the proximity to detectable cirrus clouds. Such a residual signature can affect retrievals that rely on a cloud-free atmosphere, such as aerosol optical depth (AOD) or sea surface temperature. Analyzing MODIS raw-data and products, we show a clear increase in the reflectance when approaching detectable cirrus clouds. We estimated a mean increase in AOD of 0.03 ± 0.01 and a decrease in the Angstrom-exponent of −0.22 ± 0.20 in the first kilometer around detectable cirrus. The effect decays tenfold at a typical distance of 5.5 ± 1.8 km. Such trends confirm the contribution of large particles that are likely to be ...
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    Using constructed analogs to improve the skill of National Multi-Model Ensemble March–April–May precipitation forecasts in equatorial East Africa (2014)
    Institute of Physics (IOP)
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    Publication Date: 2014-09-25
    Description: In this study we implement and evaluate a simple ‘hybrid’ forecast approach that uses constructed analogs (CA) to improve the National Multi-Model Ensemble’s (NMME) March–April–May (MAM) precipitation forecasts over equatorial eastern Africa (hereafter referred to as EA, 2°S to 8°N and 36°E to 46°E). Due to recent declines in MAM rainfall, increases in population, land degradation, and limited technological advances, this region has become a recent epicenter of food insecurity. Timely and skillful precipitation forecasts for EA could help decision makers better manage their limited resources, mitigate socio-economic losses, and potentially save human lives. The ‘hybrid approach’ described in this study uses the CA method to translate dynamical precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts over the Indian and Pacific Oceans (specifically 30°S to 30°N and 30°E to 270°E) into terrestrial MAM precipitation forecasts over the EA region. In doing so, this approach benefits ...
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    Consumer cost effectiveness of CO 2 mitigation policies in restructured electricity markets (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-10-21
    Description: We examine the cost of carbon dioxide mitigation to consumers in restructured USA markets under two policy instruments, a carbon price and a renewable portfolio standard (RPS). To estimate the effect of policies on market clearing prices, we constructed hourly economic dispatch models of the generators in PJM and in ERCOT. We find that the cost effectiveness of policies for consumers is strongly dependent on the price of natural gas and on the characteristics of the generators in the dispatch stack. If gas prices are low (∼$4/MMBTU), a technology-agnostic, rational consumer seeking to minimize costs would prefer a carbon price over an RPS in both regions. Expensive gas (∼$7/MMBTU) requires a high carbon price to induce fuel switching and this leads to wealth transfers from consumers to low carbon producers. The RPS may be more cost effective for consumers because the added energy supply lowers market clearing prices and reduces CO 2 emissions. We find that both policies...
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    The days of plenty might soon be over in glacierized Central Asian catchments (2014)
    Institute of Physics (IOP)
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    Publication Date: 2014-10-21
    Description: Despite the fact that the fast-growing population of Central Asia strongly depends on glacial melt water for fresh water supply, irrigation and hydropower production, the impact of glacier shrinkage on water availability remains poorly understood. With an annual area loss of 0.36 to 0.76%, glaciers are retreating particularly fast in the northern Tien Shan, thus causing concern about future water security in the densely populated regions of Bishkek and Almaty. Here, we use exceptionally long in-situ data series to run and calibrate a distributed glacio-hydrological model, which we then force with downscaled data from phase five of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project CMIP5. We observe that even in the most glacier-friendly scenario, glaciers will lose up to two thirds (−60%) of their 1955 extent by the end of the 21st century. The range of climate scenarios translates into different changes in overall water availability, from peak water being reached in the 2020s over...
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    Reliability of African climate prediction and attribution across timescales (2014)
    Institute of Physics (IOP)
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    Publication Date: 2014-10-21
    Description: This study investigates the reliability of seasonal to multi-decadal climate simulations of the wet seasons of several key African regions. It is found that reliability varies across regions and seasons, and that simulations of precipitation are universally less reliable than simulations of temperature. Similar levels of reliability are found across all the timescales considered for most (but not all) region/season combinations. Reliability for temperatures increases on longer timescales, both due to the differences in the modelling systems for each timescale and, in part, due to the contribution from systematic climate warming. Though the use of reliability is well-established for forecasting, its meaning for attribution is less clear, and further work is underway to further clarify this.
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    Assessing satellite-based start-of-season trends in the US High Plains (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-10-21
    Description: To adequately assess the effects of global warming it is necessary to address trends and impacts at the local level. This study examines phenological changes in the start-of-season (SOS) derived from satellite observations from 1982–2008 in the US High Plains region. The surface climate-based SOS was also evaluated. The averaged profiles of SOS from 37° to 49°N latitude by satellite- and climate-based methods were in reasonable agreement, especially for areas where croplands were masked out and an additional frost date threshold was adopted. The statistically significant trends of satellite-based SOS show a later spring arrival ranging from 0.1 to 4.9 days decade −1 over nine Level III ecoregions. We found the croplands generally exhibited larger trends (later arrival) than the non-croplands. The area-averaged satellite-based SOS for non-croplands (i.e. mostly grasslands) showed no significant trends. We examined the trends of temperatures, precipitation, and standardiz...
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    Economically and environmentally informed policy for road resurfacing: tradeoffs between costs and greenhouse gas emissions (2014)
    Institute of Physics (IOP)
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    Publication Date: 2014-10-21
    Description: As road conditions worsen, users experience an increase in fuel consumption and vehicle wear and tear. This increases the costs incurred by the drivers, and also increases the amount of greenhouse gases (GHGs) that vehicles emit. Pavement condition can be improved through rehabilitation activities (resurfacing) to reduce the effects on users, but these activities also have significant cost and GHG emission impacts. The objective of pavement management is to minimize total societal (user and agency) costs. However, the environmental impacts associated with the cost-minimizing policy are not currently accounted for. We show that there exists a range of potentially optimal decisions, known as the Pareto frontier, in which it is not possible to decrease total emissions without increasing total costs and vice versa. This research explores these tradeoffs for a system of pavement segments. For a case study, a network was created from a subset of California’s highways using available tr...
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    First approach to the Japanese nitrogen footprint model to predict the loss of nitrogen to the environment (2014)
    Institute of Physics (IOP)
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    Publication Date: 2014-11-27
    Description: Humans increase the amount of reactive nitrogen (all N species except N 2 ) in the environment through a number of processes, primarily food and energy production. Once in the environment, excess reactive nitrogen may cause a host of various environmental problems. Understanding and controlling individual nitrogen footprints is important for preserving environmental and human health. In this paper we present the per capita nitrogen footprint of Japan. We considered the effect of the international trade of food and feed, and the impact of dietary preferences among different consumer age groups. Our results indicate that the current average per capita N footprint in Japan considering trade is 28.1 kg N capita −1 yr −1 . This footprint is dominated by food (25.6 kg N capita −1 yr −1 ), with the remainder coming from the housing, transportation, and goods and services sectors. The difference in food choices and intake between age groups ...
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    Atmospheric electric field measurements in urban environment and the pollutant aerosol weekly dependence (2014)
    Institute of Physics (IOP)
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    Publication Date: 2014-11-27
    Description: The weekly dependence of pollutant aerosols in the urban environment of Lisbon (Portugal) is inferred from the records of atmospheric electric field at Portela meteorological station (38°47′N, 9°08′W). Measurements were made with a Bendorf electrograph. The data set exists from 1955 to 1990, but due to the contaminating effect of the radioactive fallout during 1960 and 1970s, only the period between 1980 and 1990 is considered here. Using a relative difference method a weekly dependence of the atmospheric electric field is found in these records, which shows an increasing trend between 1980 and 1990. This is consistent with a growth of population in the Lisbon metropolitan area and consequently urban activity, mainly traffic. Complementarily, using a Lomb–Scargle periodogram technique the presence of a daily and weekly cycle is also found. Moreover, to follow the evolution of theses cycles, in the period considered, a simple representation in a colour surface plot representation ...
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    Eastern Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency from 1851–1898 is comparable to satellite era frequency (2014)
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    Publication Date: 2014-11-27
    Description: Trend in North Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency is subject to uncertainties related mainly to observational deficiencies. These uncertainties make assessments of anthropogenic effects on present and future trends problematic. Here we document that, contrary to received opinion, ship numbers actually peaked in the mid-nineteenth century and reached a minimum in the early twentieth century. The greater opportunities for ship encounters with tropical cyclones is demonstrated in re-analysis of Eastern Atlantic tropical cyclones from 1851–1898. Our results suggest that nineteenth century frequency is comparable to that for the same area during the entire satellite era from 1965–2012.
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