ALBERT

Notes: The existence of a quasi-periodic cycle in growth rates of major economic indicators has become one of the more popular stylized facts in interpreting postwar macro-dynamics. In this paper, we examine the statistical record of sixteen OECD countries over the 1950-1970 period to determine the degree of regularity in movements of annual growth rates in both GNP and several disaggregated components. The Wallis-Moore test is employed to establish the significance of the deviation of growth rate fluctuations from those of a purely random series. In only 13 of the 90 series investigated were these deviations statistically significant and in only two countries, Germany and Finland, were more than one growth series significantly non-random. These results suggest that there is little statistical significance to the growth cycle hypothesis from an annual perspective and that postwar macro-dynamics generally fail to reflect in the growth rate domain much of the regularity observed in the more traditional business cycle of the prewar period.

Notes: The paper reviews and assesses recent developments in transport planning techniques and makes suggestions on those aspects on which further research could most productively focus. Part I deals with various traffic forecasting methods, a field in which newer microeconomic decision models appear to provide promising results. Part II analyzes the use and limits of various planning techniques at the project, modal network and intermodal level, with particular emphasis on multiparametric simulation models; special attention is directed at the interdependence of investment, pricing, taxes/subsidies and access control. Part III is concerned with some ambitious but rather unsatisfactory attempts of predicting the locational impact of changes in the transport sector on other sectors of the economy; consistency analysis, dynamic planning and further basic line data collection, necessary to formulate models of higher predictive value, are suggested. Part IV discusses the implications of using transport policy as an instrument for explicitly influencing the desired regional pattern of economical and social activities, an area to which priority of further research should be given.

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