ALBERT

Notes: Abstract Cohen et al. [16] suggest that in order to explore ways to bring climate change (CC) and sustainable development (SD) research together, it is necessary to develop more heuristic tools that can involve resource users and other stakeholders. In this respect, this paper focuses on methodological development in research to study climate change impacts and regional sustainable development (RSD). It starts with an introduction of an integrated land assessment framework (ILAF) which is part of the integrated phase of the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS) in Canada. The paper then provides some articulation on how the integrated approach was applied in the Mackenzie Basin to show implications of climate change for RSD.

Notes: Abstract Within the CLEAR project a new approach to integrated assessment modelling has been developed for the participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change involving citizens' focus groups. The climate change decision problem was structured by focusing separately on climate impacts and mitigation options. The attempt was made to link the different scales of the problem from the individual to the global level. The abstract topic of climate change was related to options on the level of a citizen's individual lifestyle. The option of a low energy society was emphasised in order to embed the climate change decision problem in a wider range of societal concerns. Special emphasis was given to the characterisation and communication of uncertainties. The chosen approach allows different kinds of uncertainties in one framework to be addressed. The paper concludes with a summary of the experience made, and recommendations for the use of models in participatory integrated assessments.

Notes: Abstract Long-term variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic thermohaline ocean circulation (THC) are both shaping the European climate on time scales of decades and longer. Possible linear and non-linear changes in the characteristics of these natural climate modes due to global warming are an important source of uncertainty in long-term regional projections of future climate changes.

Notes: Abstract The potential ecological impact of ongoing climate change has been much discussed. High mountain ecosystems were identified early on as potentially very sensitive areas. Scenarios of upward species movement and vegetation shift are commonly discussed in the literature. Mountains being characteristically conic in shape, impact scenarios usually assume that a smaller surface area will be available as species move up. However, as the frequency distribution of additional physiographic factors (e.g., slope angle) changes with increasing elevation (e.g., with few gentle slopes available at higher elevation), species migrating upslope may encounter increasingly unsuitable conditions. As a result, many species could suffer severe reduction of their habitat surface, which could in turn affect patterns of biodiversity. In this paper, results from static plant distribution modeling are used to derive climate change impact scenarios in a high mountain environment. Models are adjusted with presence/absence of species. Environmental predictors used are: annual mean air temperature, slope, indices of topographic position, geology, rock cover, modeled permafrost and several indices of solar radiation and snow cover duration. Potential Habitat Distribution maps were drawn for 62 higher plant species, from which three separate climate change impact scenarios were derived. These scenarios show a great range of response, depending on the species and the degree of warming. Alpine species would be at greatest risk of local extinction, whereas species with a large elevation range would run the lowest risk. Limitations of the models and scenarios are further discussed.

Notes: Abstract For many years, waterfowl have been poisoned by lead after ingesting contaminated sediment in the Coeur d'Alene River Basin, in Idaho. Results of studies on waterfowl experimentally fed this sediment were combined with results from field studies conducted in the Basin to relate sediment lead concentration to injury to waterfowl. The first step in the model estimated exposure as the relation of sediment lead concentration to blood lead concentration in mute swans (Cygnus olor), ingesting 22% sediment in a rice diet. That rate corresponded to the 90th percentile of sediment ingestion estimated from analyses of feces of tundra swans (Olor columbianus) in the Basin. Then, with additional laboratory studies on Canada geese (Branta canadensis) and mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) fed the sediment, we developed the general relation of blood lead to injury in waterfowl. Injury was quantified by blood lead concentrations, ALAD (δ-aminolevulinic acid dehydratase) activity, protoporphyrin concentrations, hemoglobin concentrations, hepatic lead concentrations, and the prevalence of renal nuclear inclusion bodies. Putting the exposure and injury relations together provided a powerful tool for assessing hazards to wildlife in the Basin. The no effect concentration of sediment lead was estimated as 24 mg/kg and the lowest effect level as 530 mg/kg. By combining our exposure equation with data on blood lead concentrations measured in moribund tundra swans in the Basin, we estimated that some mortality would occur at a sediment lead concentration as low as 1800 mg/kg.

Notes: Abstract The artifice of an infinitely-lived representative agent iscommonly invoked to balance the present costs and future benefitsof climate stabilization policies. Since actual economies arepopulated by overlapping generations of finite-lived persons,this approach begs important questions of welfare aggregation.This paper compares the results of representative agent andoverlapping generations models that are numerically calibratedbased on standard assumptions regarding climate--economyinteractions. Under two social choice rules -- Pareto efficiencyand classical utilitarianism -- the models generate closelysimilar simulation results. In the absence of policies toredistribute income between present and future generations,efficient rates of carbon dioxide emissions abatement rise from15 to 20% between the years 2000 and 2105. Under classicalutilitarianism, in contrast, optimal control rates rise from 48 to 79% this same period.

Notes: Abstract Winter tourism and mountain agriculture are the most important economic sectors in a major part of the Swiss Alps. Both are highly sensitive to changing climatic conditions. In the framework of the CLEAR project, results from climate impact research in the field of tourism and agricultural production were used to investigate the perception of climatic change by stakeholders and to assess possible adaptations. We used a participatory integrated assessment (PIA) to involve the knowledge, values and experiences of the various social actors in tourism and agriculture (e.g., skiers, tourism managers, farmers) in the research process. Whereas climate change may have various severe direct impacts on the tourism industry, depending on the region, agricultural production may generally benefit from changed climatic conditions. But because of the dependence of farmers on “off-farm” income, the loss due to declining winter tourism in specific areas may cause more important indirect effects. However, the two sectors may adapt actively by choosing from a variety of strategies, and the loss of income from the tourism industry may support the re-evaluation of the various functions agriculture plays in mountain regions, beyond the production of food. The study demonstrates the suitability of the PIA approach to elucidate the interactions between different stakeholders and their perception of the climate change phenomena. A similar participatory approach could be a useful tool to transfer research results and expert knowledge to the political process addressing adaptations to climate change.

Notes: Abstract This paper analyzes future carbon emissions inequality using a group decomposition of the Gini index. Business-as-usual projections to the year 2100 for 135 countries show inequality in per capita emissions declines slowly. Next, the impact on emissions levels and inequality of the Kyoto Protocol and other abatement proposals for Annex II countries in 2010 are measured, with a focus on the gap-narrowing and reranking effects. Substantial reranking of per capita emissions between Annex II and non-Annex II countries will not occur unless the former reduce their emissions by at least 50% (versus 1990 levels) and the latter continue growing unabated.

Notes: Abstract A standard framework is presented as an underlying model for the discounting debate. Views and proposals for the techniques and rates of discounting are assessed. Alternative modeling frameworks for studying intergenerational equity issues are evaluated with the result that the basic insights they provide do not differ very much. Results from model experiments involving different discount rate proposals show that fudging the discount rate does not lead to efficient climate policy. Three major clusters of opinions are identified regarding the applicability of cost-benefit analysis to the climate change problem and the appropriate discount rate to use. It is concluded that under some very special circumstances the cost-benefit rule should be abandoned and cost-effective strategies implying standard discount rates should be sought to reach clearly defined and justified environmental targets.

Notes: Abstract Poor knowledge of links between desertification and globalclimate change is limiting funding from the Global Environment Facility foranti-desertification projects and realization of synergies between theConvention to Combat Desertification (CCD) and the FrameworkConvention on Climate Change (FCCC). Greater convergence betweenresearch in the two fields could overcome these limitations, improve ourknowledge of desertification, and benefit four areas of global climate changestudies: mitigation assessment; accounting for land cover change in thecarbon budget; land surface-atmosphere interactions; and climate changeimpact forecasting. Convergence would be assisted if desertification weretreated more as a special case in dry areas of the global process of landdegradation, and stimulated by: (a) closer cooperation between the FCCCand CCD; (b) better informal networking between desertification and globalclimate change scientists, e.g. within the framework of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Both strategies wouldbe facilitated if the FCCC and CCD requested the IPCC to provide ascientific framework for realizing the synergies between them.

Notes: Abstract Climate change has been presented as a likely trigger formigration of people, especially in dryland areas of less developed countries.The underlying research questions focus on the strength of adaptationcapacity of subsistence farmers in Northern Ethiopia, and evaluate historicalexperiences gained from drought-induced migration. Through a survey of104 peasants who had to migrant due to persistent drought, vulnerabilityto climate change has shown to be a complex issue, including themultiplicity of factors comprising a household environment. Still, to bevulnerable does not make someone a potential climate migrant, as peoplein marginal regions have developed a great variety of adaptationmechanisms, which strengthen their ability to cope with both, slow climaticchanges and extreme climatic events.

Notes: Abstract The San Francisco Estuary Regional Monitoring Program for Trace Substances (RMP) began in 1993 and is sponsored by 74 local, state, and federal agencies and companies through their discharge or Bay use permits. The RMP monitors water, sediment, toxicity, and bivalve bioaccumulation at 25 sites in the Bay that are considered to represent "background" conditions. Several major environmental issues have been identified by the RMP. Polychlorinated biphenyls and mercury were often above water quality guidelines, and often occurred in fish tissues above U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) screening values. Concentrations do not appear to be decreasing, suggesting continuing inputs. Episodes of aquatic toxicity often occurred following runoff events that transport contaminants into the Bay from urbanized and agricultural portions of the watershed. Sediment toxicity occurred throughout the Bay, and has been correlated with concentrations of specific contaminants (chlordanes, polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons) at some locations; mixtures of contaminants were probably also important. Since the RMP does not monitor all ecosystem components, assessments of the overall condition of the Bay cannot be made. However, in terms of contamination, the RMP samples suggest that the South Bay, and North Bay sites are moderately contaminated.

Notes: Abstract Increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide CO2 have a beneficial effect on crop production that would tend to offset some of the economic losses that might be generated in some areas by the climatic effects of atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases. Previous estimates of the economic benefits of CO2 fertilization on world crop production, however, were based on the assumption that percent changes in supply are equal to percent changes in yield. This assumption is not valid, however, because it confounds changes in supply with changes in quantity supplied. This error leads to an overestimation of the real economic benefits of CO2 fertilization by 61–166%. The effects of CO2 fertilization on crop production, therefore, will reduce some of the potential damages caused by the climatic impacts of greenhouse gases, but by significantly less than that indicated in earlier research.

Notes: Abstract This paper demonstrates the ability of Polish agriculture to adapt to predicted climate change according to GISS and GFDL scenarios. Both climate-change scenarios will significantly affect farming conditions in Poland through water deficit, shifts in planting and harvesting seasons, changes in crop yields and crop structure. Neither scenario seems to endanger the self-sufficiency of Poland as long as preventative measures are taken. Moreover, the realization of GISS creates the possibility of a surplus in production. It must be emphasized that regardless of the scenario, the adaptation of agriculture to an expected climate change cannot be handled by the farming community itself.

Notes: Abstract A large part of the Central Asian region is located within the inner flow of the Aral Sea basin. The water resources are formed from renewed superficial and underground waters of natural origin, and also with returnable waters. The intensive increase of water intake, that took place in the second half of the twentieth century caused practically complete assimilation of the river inflow. That was the main reason for the Aral Sea crisis. On the basis of the analysis of long periodical rows of observation by meterological and hydrological stations, the estimation of regional water resources and calculations of changes of some components of the hydrological cycle due to the expected climate changes are presented. Measures for adaptation in the southern part of the Aral Sea region are considered.

Notes: Abstract It is indicated that up to the year 2030, the annual average temperatures in China will increase by 0.88 to 1.2°C, with increments in the south less than in the north. Annual average precipitation would raise slightly, but the increment could be 4% in northeastern China. The increment of annual mean runoff could rise over 6% in the northeastern area, and decrease in the other regions 1.4 to 10.5%. The increased water shortage due to climate change could achieve 160 to 5090 million m3 in some areas of China. Financial loss due to the lack of water could reach 1300 million yuan, and up to 4400 million yuan in serious drought years in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan area.

Notes: Abstract Over the past two centuries progressive anthropogenicperturbations to natural, boreal forest-climateinteractions have contributed increasingly to awidespread transition from coniferous to deciduouslandscapes. This transition is associated withchanges, at boreal latitudes, in temperature,photosynthetic activity, atmospheric CO2 andspring snow cover. These signals convey thediminished capacity of boreal landscapes to store andcycle materials and energy.

Notes: Abstract This study determined the spatial distribution of soiland of sediment-associated lead in Iqaluit, Nunavut.Samples were collected from the following areas:outside the built-up area of the town to reflectbackground concentrations; known or potential pointsources of lead, such as the Upper Base, the SylviaGrinnell Dump and the Metal Dump (North 40); andresidential and commercial areas of Iqaluit and Apex,a satellite community. In the laboratory, the 〈63 μm sample fraction was analyzed for total lead andbioavailable lead, estimated by non-residual acidextractable lead content. The research findings revealthat elevated levels of bioavailable lead are presentin the study area. Total lead concentrations generallydo not exceed environmental guidelines. However, leadconcentrations in the Sylvia Grinnell Dump, and Apexand Iqaluit grid areas exceed health-based guidelines.The research concludes that there is not a serioushealth hazard posed by lead levels in the soil andsediment in the study area. However, severalenvironmental (elevated lead levels, bioavailableforms of lead and bare soil surfaces) and behaviouralfactors (vigorous and unsupervised play outside) maycreate a risk of lead exposure.

Notes: Abstract Release kinetics of Water Soluble Organic Carbon (WSOC) from a wetlandsoil and a river bottom sediment were investigated under variousexperimental conditions in the laboratory. The laminar sublayerconcept was applied to model the release process. The resultsindicate that the release process can be characterized by atypical first order equation derived from the laminar sublayermodeling. The mass transfer rate constants of the releaseprocess increased with the increase in flow velocity following apower function. Due to texture difference, the transfer rateconstant of the wetland soil is about one order of magnitudelarger than that of the river bottom sediment. The influences oftemperature and pH on the release kinetics are discussed.

Notes: Abstract Adaptation in response to anthropogenic climate change seeks to maintain viability by maximising benefits and minimising losses. It is necessary because some climatic change is now inevitable, despite the international focus on mitigation measures. Indeed, the measures agreed at Kyoto would by themselves result in only a small reduction in the climate changes to be expected over the next century. Discussion of the expected changes and possible impacts leads to the following conclusions regarding climate change scenarios in relation to impacts and adaptation: • Climate change in the foreseeable future will not be some new stable "equilibrium" climate, but rather an ongoing "transient" process; • Climate change predictions relevant to impacts on most sectors and ecosystems are still highly uncertain; • There is a need for a greater focus on developing countries and tropical regions, and on relevant key variables, including the magnitude and frequency of extreme events; • The focus should shift from single predictions, or extreme ranges of uncertainty, to risk assessment; • Thresholds critical to impacted sectors and ecosystems should be identified, and expressed as functions of climatic variables; • Planned adaptations will be necessary to cope with multiple stresses, including those due to non-climatic changes; • A major task of adaptation science is to identify the limits of adaptation, i.e., to identify "dangerous levels of greenhouse gases" beyond which adaptation becomes impractical or prohibitively expensive.

Notes: Abstract Two decades of developing relevant legal and institutional regimes for the sustainable and nondestructive use of natural resources have framed Costa Rica's pioneer approach to mitigate climate change and conserve its rich biological diversity. This policy framework provides an appropriate context for the actual and proposed development of market instruments designed to attract capital investments for carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation, and allows the establishment of mechanisms to use those funds to compensate owners for the environmental services provided by their land. As a developing economy. Costa Rica is striving to internalize the benefits from the environmental services it offers, as a cornerstone of its sustainable development strategy.

Notes: Abstract If current trends continue, human activities will drastically alter most of the planet's remaining natural ecosystems and their composite biota within a few decades. Compounding the impacts on biodiversity from deleterious management practices is climate variability and change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently concluded that there is ample evidence to suggest climate change is likely to result in significant impacts on biological diversity. These impacts are likely to be exacerbated by the secondary effects of climate change such as changes in the occurrence of wildfire, insect outbreaks and similar disturbances. Current changes in climate are very different from those of the past due to their rate and magnitude, the direct effects of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations and because highly modified landscapes and an array of threatening processes limit the ability of terrestrial ecosystems and species to respond to changed conditions. One of the primary human adaptation option for conserving biodiversity is considered to be changes in management. The complex and overarching nature of climate change issues emphasises the need for greatly enhanced cooperation between scientists, policy makers, industry and the community to better understand key interactions and identify options for adaptation. A key challenge is to identify opportunities that facilitate sustainable development by making use of existing technologies and developing policies that enhance the resilience of climate-sensitive sectors. Measures to enhance the resilience of biodiversity must be considered in all of these activities if many ecosystem services essential to humanity are to be sustained. New institutional arrangements appear necessary at the regional and national level to ensure that policy initiatives and research directed at assessing and mitigating the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change are complementary and undertaken strategically and cost-effectively. Policy implementation at the national level to meet responsibilities arising from the UNFCCC (e.g., the Kyoto Protocol) and the UN Convention on Biological Diversity require greater coordination and integration between economic sectors, since many primary drivers of biodiversity loss and vulnerability are influenced at this level. A case study from the Australian continent is used to illustrate several key issues and discuss a basis for reform, including recommendations for facilitating adaptation to climate variability and change.

Notes: Abstract Global climate change is likely to have a range of consequences for human health as a result of disturbance or weakening of the biosphere's natural or human-managed life support systems. The full range of potential human health impacts of global climate change is diverse and would be distributed differentially spatially and over time. Changes in the mortality toll of heatwaves and changes in the distribution of vector-borne infectious diseases may occur early. The public health consequences of sea level rise and of regional changes in agricultural productivity may not occur (or become apparent) for several decades. Vulnerability is a measure of both sensitivity to climate change and the ability to adapt in anticipation of, or in response to, its impacts. The basic modes of adaptation to climate-induced health hazards are biological, behavioural and social. Adaptation can be undertaken at the individual, community and whole-population levels. Adaptive strategies should not introduce new health hazards. Enhancement of the acknowledged public health infrastructure and intervention programmes is essential to reduce vulnerability to the health impacts of climate change. In the longer-term, fundamental improvements in the social and material conditions of life and in the reduction of inequalities within and between populations are required for sustained reduction in vulnerability to environmental health hazards.

Notes: Abstract A mechanism has been established to improve integration of international climate-related programmes. Known as the Climate Agenda it outlines a programme, that in a cost-effective way, responds to national obligations to respond to international agreements as well as their national needs for social and economic development. The paper briefly describes the Climate Agenda and the incorporation within it of studies of climate impact assessments and response strategies to reduce vulnerability. The need for increased emphasis on climate impact assessment and for the development of effective adaptation measures is emphasised following the elaboration of a Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). UNEP's efforts to identify national programmes contributing to the Climate Agenda are described. The response from developing countries has, however, been very disappointing, even from countries where we know work is ongoing through funding by GEF or US Country Studies Program and other bilateral programmes. Initial compilation of information available so far shows that many developed countries are putting a lot into the area of impact assessment of not just climate change, but also climate variability. There remain some research gaps, especially in the area of assessment of climate impacts on ecosystems, hydrological systems, etc. Considerable efforts are presently being directed at reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases and in the case of developing countries, most efforts are being directed towards completing national communications and providing baseline data for future studies. The paper refers to early activities by UNEP in cooperation with other international organizations to undertake integrated assessments of the impacts of climate change on important socio-economic sectors and the later incorporation of lessons learned into the IPCC Guidelines for Assessing Impacts of Climate Change. Later sections outline the development of a handbook on methods for climate change impact assessment and adaptation strategies as a practical approach to national assessments and the development of appropriate and cost-effective response to climate change. The initiation of a GEF-funded project to apply the methods contained in the handbook and improve the results based on national studies is also described for both developed and developing countries. Working in collaboration with a team of international experts under the coordination of the Institute of Environmental Studies at Vrije University (Amsterdam), the goal of this ongoing project is to develop a valuable methodological tool that Parties to the UNFCCC may apply to develop national climate change impact and adaptation assessments. Development of these guidelines was linked to a series of country studies in Antigua and Barbuda, Estonia, Cameroon and Pakistan funded under a UNEP/GEF project. The application of the first version of the UNEP Handbook by national study teams in these four countries is making valuable technical and practical contributions and will ensure that the next version of the Handbook will be a more useful tool for experts in developing countries undertaking similar studies in the future. The methods contained in the Handbook are also the basis for similar assessments funded under bilateral development programmes in other countries. These and similar studies elsewhere are coordinated with the UNEP programme and will eventually aim to create reliable and comparable assessments, a compatible set of tools for such purpose and the identification of realistic adaptation options for incorporation into national planning for adapting to climate change. The paper also addresses how climate impact assessment and response strategies are undertaken as part of national enabling activities carried out in co-operation with UNEP.

Notes: Abstract This paper describes four global-change phenomena that are having major impacts on Amazonian forests. The first is accelerating deforestation and logging. Despite recent government initiatives to slow forest loss, deforestation rates in Brazilian Amazonia have increased from 1.1 million ha yr−1 in the early 1990s, to nearly 1.5 million ha yr−1 from 1992–1994, and to more than 1.9 million ha yr−1 from 1995–1998. Deforestation is also occurring rapidly in some other parts of the Amazon Basin, such as in Bolivia and Ecuador, while industrialized logging is increasing dramatically in the Guianas and central Amazonia. The second phenomenon is that patterns of forest loss and fragmentation are rapidly changing. In recent decades, large-scale deforestation has mainly occurred in the southern and eastern portions of the Amazon — in the Brazilian states of Pará, Maranhāo, Rondônia, Acre, and Mato Grosso, and in northern Bolivia. While rates of forest loss remain very high in these areas, the development of major new highways is providing direct conduits into the heart of the Amazon. If future trends follow past patterns, land-hungry settlers and loggers may largely bisect the forests of the Amazon Basin. The third phenomenon is that climatic variability is interacting with human land uses, creating additional impacts on forest ecosystems. The 1997/98 El Niño drought, for example, led to a major increase in forest burning, with wildfires raging out of control in the northern Amazonian state of Roraima and other locations. Logging operations, which create labyrinths of roads and tracks in forsts, are increasing fuel loads, desiccation and ignition sources in forest interiors. Forest fragmentation also increases fire susceptibility by creating dry, fire-prone forest edges. Finally, recent evidence suggests that intact Amazonian forests are a globally significant carbon sink, quite possibly caused by higher forest growth rates in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 fertilization. Evidence for a carbon sink comes from long-term forest mensuration plots, from whole-forest studies of carbon flux and from investigations of atmospheric CO2 and oxygen isotopes. Unfortunately, intact Amazonian forests are rapidly diminishing. Hence, not only is the destruction of these forests a major source of greenhouse gases, but it is reducing their intrinsic capacity to help buffer the rapid anthropogenic rise in CO2.

Notes: Abstract Many developing countries, especially in Africa, contribute only very small amounts to the world total of greenhouse gas emissions. For them, the reduction of such emissions is not a priority, and the more important issue is to find ways to reduce their vulnerability to the projected climate change which is being imposed upon them largely as a result of emissions from developed countries. This priority does not accord with the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which is to achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions. This paper reports upon studies in Uganda designed to help in the development of a national adaptation strategy, and addresses the need to reconcile such a strategy with the global priority accorded to mitigation and with national economic development priorities. Some features of a national climate change adaptation strategy are identified and questions are raised about the need for an international regime to facilitate and support adaptation.

Notes: Abstract Climate change impacts on African human settlements arise from a number of climate change-related causes, notably sea level changes, impacts on water resources, extreme weather events, food security, increased health risks from vector home diseases, and temperature-related morbidity in urban environments. Some coastlines and river deltas of Africa have densely populated low-lying areas, which would be affected by a rise in sea level. Other coastal settlements will be subjected to increased coastal erosion. Recent flooding in East Africa highlighted the vulnerability of flood plain settlements and the need to develop adaptive strategies for extreme weather events management and mitigation. In the semi arid and arid zones many settlements are associated with inland drainage water sources. Increases in drought will enhance water supply related vulnerabilities. Inter-basin and international water transfers raise the need for adequate legal frameworks that ensure equity among participating nations. Similarly, water supply and irrigation reservoirs in seasonal river catchments might fail, leading to poor sanitation in urban areas as well as food shortage. Hydroelectric power generation could be restricted in drought periods, and where it is a major contributor to the energy budget, reduced power generation could lead to a multiplicity of other impacts. States are advised to develop other sources of renewable energy. Temperature changes will lead to altered distribution of disease vectors such as mosquitoes, making settlements currently free of vector borne diseases vulnerable. Rapid breeding of the housefly could create a menace associated with enteric disorders, especially in conditions of poor sanitation. The dry savannahs of Africa are projected as possible future food deficit areas. Recurrent crop failures would lead to transmigration into urban areas. Pastoralists are likely to undertake more trans-boundary migrations and probably come into conflict with settled communities. Adaptive measures will involve methods of coastal defences (where applicable), a critical review of the energy sector, both regionally and nationally, a rigorous adherence to city hygiene procedures, an informed agricultural industry that is capable of adapting to changing climate in terms of cropping strategies, and innovations in environment design to maximise human comfort at minimum energy expenditure. In the savannah and arid areas water resource management systems will be needed to optimise water resource use and interstate co-operation where such resources are shared. Climate change issues discussed here raise the need for state support for more research and education in impacts of climate change on human settlements in Africa.

Notes: Abstract We used a time series of satellite multispectral imagery for mapping and monitoring six classes of montane meadows arrayed along a moisture gradient (from hydric to mesic to xeric). We hypothesized that mesic meadows would support the highest species diversity of plants, birds, and butterflies because they are more moderate environments. We also hypothesized that mesic meadows would exhibit the greatest seasonal and interannual variability in spectral response across years. Field sampling in each of the meadow types was conducted for plants, birds, and butterflies in 1997 and 1998. Mesic meadows supported the highest plant species diversity, but there was no significant difference in bird or butterfly species diversity among meadow types. These data show that it may be easier to detect significant differences in more species rich taxa (e.g., plants) than taxa that are represented by fewer species (e.g., butterflies and birds). Mesic meadows also showed the greatest seasonal and interannual variability in spectral response. Given the rich biodiversity of mesic montane meadows and their sensitivity to variations in temperature and moisture, they may be important to monitor in the context of environmental change

Notes: Abstract Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentrations were determined in sediment samples along the bed of Catatumbo river in both Colombian and Venezuelan territories until the river outlet in Maracaibo lake. Total phosphorus was determined by digestion with HCl followed by analysis using the ascorbic acid method and total nitrogen was done using the standard microkjeldahl method plus nitrate-nitrite. Ammonium, orthophosphate and nitrate were determined using standard methods after extraction steps. The mean concentrations along the river bed were found in an interval of 0.035 and 1.492 mg g-1 dry sed. for nitrogen and 0.027 and 1.039 mg g-1 dry sed. for phosphorus at 95% confidence level. The mean molar ratio N/P in the river bed was 4.42 and 3.46 for river outlet zones in the lake, which indicates that nitrogen is the limiting nutrient. For comparison with previous results of lake sediments from sites near the river outlet it was concluded that Catatumbo river is a significant source of nutrients to the Maracaibo Lake system because sediment nutrients concentrations from Catatumbo river were higher than the ones in Maracaibo Lake. Statistic studies showed significant differences between countries, zones and similar behaviour in the river bed as related to the affluent rivers.

Notes: Abstract Concentration of As, Cr, Fe, Zn, Co, Sb, Pb, Cd and Cu weredetermined in sediment and algae samples collected from theBosphorus in Turkey. Certain algae species were chosen among thegreen, brown and red algae species at three sampling stations.Element analyses were carried out by atomic absorptionspectrophotometry and instrumental neutron activation analysis. The locations having the highest metal concentrations insediments were as follows: As at Poyraz; Cr, Zn, Sb at RumeliFeneri and Fe, Co at Garipçe. In genral, the accumulation ofmost of the metals showed no direct correlation with algaespecies. On the other hand, C. verticillatus and C. barbataspecies of brown algae showed ability to accumulate arsenic.

Notes: Abstract A runoff plot experiment found that ten metre undisturbed forest buffers removed80–90% of runoff and over 95% of sediment produced by logging skid tracks. The study was carried out on 21º slopes in a native forest in eastern New South Wales, Australia. The experiment included three replicates of four treatments including undisturbed control, skid track, skid track + undisturbed buffer and skid track + disturbed buffer. Skid track and control plots were 20 m long by 5 m wide. Buffer plots consisted of a 20 m by 5 m skid track directing runoff to a 10 m by 5 m naturally vegetated buffer that was either undisturbed or lightly disturbed. Runoff and sediment yields from plots were monitored over two successive summers. Undisturbed buffers greatly reduced overland flow and decreased sediment yields from around 100 Mg ha1 to less than 0.5 Mg ha-1. Differences in both runoff and sediment yield between undisturbed buffer and control treatments were minimal and not statistically significant. Disturbed buffers achieved similarly large reductions in runoff and sediment yield in two out of three replicates. The third replicate yielded as much or more runoff and sediment than the skid track plots suggesting that disturbance increased the risk of buffer failure. The peak rate of outflow from buffer plots was generally not related to peak buffer inflow until a threshold inflow of 1.6 L s-1 was reached, after which peak outflow and peak inflow were linearly related.

Notes: Abstract As(III) and As(V) in goldtailings and river-bedsediments from Obuasi were determined by distillationof arsenic as AsCl3. Results yielded 3750±426 mg kg-1 (45.2%) for As(V) and 3050±66 mg kg-1 (36.7%) for As(III) in the tailings. In the river-bed sediments, one spot yielded: As(III) 0 mg kg-1 (0%) and As(V) 1447±51 mg kg-1 (100%), whilst a second spot yielded: As(III) 0 mg kg-1 (0%) and As(V) 2976±51 mg kg-1 (100%). Using arsenic oxide standards, the recovery of As(III) and As(V) in the trioxide were 94.8 and 0.6% respectively. In a mixture of the two oxides, the recovery of As(III) was 87.6% with practically no interference from As(V). Total As content of the tailings was determined by neutron activation analysis (NAA) to be 8305±75 mg kg-1.

Notes: Abstract As a Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Israel is committed to develop a national inventory of anthropogenic emissions and removals of greenhouse gases. This paper presents the national inventory, which was developed according to the guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The inventory includes the following sectors: energy, industrial processes, agriculture, forestry and waste. In this paper, only the inventory of the direct greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4 and N2O) is presented. Emissions of these gases were converted to CO2 equivalent emissions by means of their Global Warming Potentials (a measure of the radiative effects of the different gases relatively to CO2). CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels to produce energy are by far the largest source (50 million tons in 1996). The contribution of methane emissions from decomposition of landfilled municipal solid waste is second in importance (8 million tons of CO2 equivalent). Industrial processes emit about 2 million tons CO2 equivalent, the most important process being cement production. Agricultural emissions amount to about 2 million tons CO2 equivalent and are due to soil emissions of nitrous oxide, methane emissions from enteric fermentation in domestic livestock and N2O and CH4 emissions from animal waste management. Although most forests in Israel are in a growing stage and atmospheric CO2 is therefore removed to form biomass, this removal amounts to 0.4 million tons only and is very small as compared to emissions from other sectors. On a per capita basis, Israel's emissions of CO2 from fuel combustion are not far behind those of some of the most developed countries.

Notes: Abstract The toxicological consequences of Hg releases to the environment are largely governed by the conversion ofinorganic Hg to the most toxic methylmercury (MeHg), that is biomagnified through aquatic food chains. To gain further insight on the biological and physico-chemical factors controlling MeHg production and distribution among freshwater sediments and water, we used a sensitive and specific radiochemical procedure, developed at the National Institute for Minamata Disease. Systems containing 203Hg2+-spiked sediment cores (0.7 μg total Hg g-1 d.w.) and overlying water, both from a pristine mountain stream in Southern Japan, were incubated for 21–38 days in different conditions. Inorganic Hg and MeHg in sediment and water were extracted in dithizone-benzene and measured after separation by thin-layer chromatography. The conversion of added Hg to MeHg was 3.0 to 13.7% in sediments, with a tendency for higher proportions in the top layers. Surprisingly, more MeHg was found in the sediment (11.3%) and water (66.5%) of a system bubbled with air than in one bubbled with nitrogen (4.2 and 44.1%). Artificially increased levels ofbioturbation reduced by half the MeHg concentrationsand % of added total Hg in sediment and water. In allsystems, 55–68% of total Hg and MeHg in water wereassociated to suspended particles 〉1μm. MeHgbioaccumulation factors (BFs) from water ranged270–8100 and from sediment, 0.2–5.7 (wet weight basis). BFs in relation to water where 3 times higher for MeHg than for total Hg.

Notes: Abstract Many governments use technology incentives as an important component of their greenhouse gas abatement strategies. These “carrots” are intended to encourage the initial diffusion of new, greenhouse-gas-emissions-reducing technologies, in contrast to carbon taxes and emissions trading which provide a “stick” designed to reduce emissions by increasing the price of high-emitting technologies for all users. Technology incentives appear attractive, but their record in practice is mixed and economic theory suggests that in the absence of market failures, they are inefficient compared to taxes and trading. This study uses an agent-based model of technology diffusion and exploratory modeling, a new technique for decision-making under conditions of extreme uncertainty, to examine the conditions under which technology incentives should be a key building block of robust climate change policies. We find that a combined strategy of carbon taxes and technology incentives, as opposed to carbon taxes alone, is the best approach to greenhouse gas emissions reductions if the social benefits of early adoption sufficiently exceed the private benefits. Such social benefits can occur when economic actors have a wide variety of cost/performance preferences for new technologies and either new technologies have increasing returns to scale or potential adopters can reduce their uncertainty about the performance of new technologies by querying the experience of other adopters. We find that if decision-makers hold even modest expectations that such social benefits are significant or that the impacts of climate change will turn out to be serious then technology incentive programs may be a promising hedge against the threat of climate change.