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  • 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability  (4)
  • Wiley-Blackwell  (4)
  • Public Library of Science
  • 2010-2014  (4)
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Keywords
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Year
  • 1
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    A smoothed stochastic earthquake rate model considering seismicity and fault moment release for Europe (2014)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-12-15
    Description: We present a time-independent gridded earthquake rate forecast for the European region including Turkey. The spatial component of our model is based on kernel density estimation techniques, which we applied to both past earthquake locations and fault moment release on mapped crustal faults and subduction zone interfaces with assigned slip rates. Our forecast relies on the assumption that the locations of past seismicity is a good guide to future seismicity, and that future large-magnitude events occur more likely in the vicinity of known faults. We show that the optimal weighted sum of the corresponding two spatial densities depends on the magnitude range considered. The kernel bandwidths and density weighting function are optimized using retrospective likelihood-based forecast experiments. We computed earthquake activity rates (a- and b-value) of the truncated Gutenberg–Richter distribution separately for crustal and subduction seismicity based on a maximum likelihood approach that considers the spatial and temporal completeness history of the catalogue. The final annual rate of our forecast is purely driven by the maximum likelihood fit of activity rates to the catalogue data, whereas its spatial component incorporates contributions from both earthquake and fault moment-rate densities. Our model constitutes one branch of the earthquake source model logic tree of the 2013 European seismic hazard model released by the EU-FP7 project ‘Seismic HAzard haRmonization in Europe’ (SHARE) and contributes to the assessment of epistemic uncertainties in earthquake activity rates. We performed retrospective and pseudo-prospective likelihood consistency tests to underline the reliability of our model and SHARE’s area source model (ASM) using the testing algorithms applied in the collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability (CSEP). We comparatively tested our model’s forecasting skill against the ASM and find a statistically significant better performance for testing periods of 10–20 yr. The testing results suggest that our model is a viable candidate model to serve for long-term forecasting on timescales of years to decades for the European region.
    Description: EC-Research FP7-projects, SHARE, under grant agreement No. 226967 and NERA, under grant agreement No. 262330
    Description: Published
    Description: 1159-1172
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Probabilistic forecasting ; Statistical seismology ; Europe ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
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    Fault geometry, coseismic-slip distribution and Coulomb stress change associated with the 2009 April 6, Mw 6.3, L’Aquila earthquake from inversion of GPS displacements (2011)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The 2009 April 6, Mw= 6.3 L’Aquila earthquake occurred within a complex system of NW–SE trending normal faults in the Abruzzi Central Apennines (Italy). We analyse the coseismic deformation as measured by 〉70 global positioning system (GPS) stations, both from continuous and survey-mode networks, providing unprecedented details for a moderate normal faulting earthquake in Italy from GPS measurements. We use rectangular, uniform-slip, dislocations embedded in an elastic, homogeneous and isotropic half-space and a constrained, non-linear optimization algorithm, to solve for the best-fitting rectangular dislocation geometry and coseismic-slip distribution. We use a bootstrap approach to investigate uncertainties in the model parameters and define confidence bounds for all the inverted parameters. The rupture occurred on a N129°E striking and 50° southwestward dipping normal fault, in agreement with geological observations of surface breaks along the Paganica fault. Our distributed slip model exhibits a zone of relatively higher slip (〉60 cm) between ∼1.5 and ∼11 km depth, along a roughly downdip, NW–SE elongated patch, confined within the fault plane inverted assuming uniform-slip. The highest slip, of the order of ∼1 m, occurred on a ∼16 km2 area located at ∼5 km depth, SE of the mainshock epicentre. The analysis of model resolution suggests that slip at depth below ∼5 km can be resolved only at a spatial scale larger than 2 km, so a finer discretization of different asperities within the main patch of coseismic-slip is not allowed by GPS data. We compute the coseismic Coulomb stress changes in the crustal volume affected by the major aftershocks, and compare the results obtained from the uniform-slip and the heterogeneous-slip models. We find that most of the large aftershocks occurred in areas of Coulomb stress increase of 0.2–13 bar and that a deepening of the slip distribution down to a depth greater than 6 km in the SE part of the fault plane, in agreement with the inverted slip model, can explain the deepest, April 7, Mw 5.3 aftershock.
    Description: Published
    Description: 473-489
    Description: 1.9. Rete GPS nazionale
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Satellite geodesy ; Space geodetic surveys ; Earthquake ground motions ; Earthquake source observations ; Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.07. Satellite geodesy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.06. Surveys, measurements, and monitoring
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
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    Predictability study on the aftershock sequence following the 2011 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake: first results (2012)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-06-08
    Description: Although no deterministic and reliable earthquake precursor is known to date, we are steadily gaining insight into probabilistic forecasting that draws on space–time characteristics of earthquake clustering. Clustering-based models aiming to forecast earthquakes within the next 24 hours are under test in the global project ‘Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability’ (CSEP). The 2011 March 11 magnitude 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in Japan provides a unique opportunity to test the existing 1-day CSEP models against its unprecedentedly active aftershock sequence. The original CSEP experiment performs tests after the catalogue is finalized to avoid bias due to poor data quality. However, this study differs from this tradition and uses the preliminary catalogue revised and updated by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), which is often incomplete but is immediately available. This study is intended as a first step towards operability-oriented earthquake forecasting in Japan. Encouragingly, at least one model passed the test in most combinations of the target day and the testing method, although the models could not take account of the megaquake in advance and the catalogue used for forecast generation was incomplete. However, it can also be seen that all models have only limited forecasting power for the period immediately after the quake. Our conclusion does not change when the preliminary JMAcatalogue is replaced by the finalized one, implying that the models perform stably over the catalogue replacement and are applicable to operational earthquake forecasting. However, we emphasize the need of further research on model improvement to assure the reliability of forecasts for the days immediately after the main quake. Seismicity is expected to remain high in all parts of Japan over the coming years. Our results present a way to answer the urgent need to promote research on time-dependent earthquake predictability to prepare for subsequent large earthquakes in the near future in Japan.
    Description: Published
    Description: 653-658
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Time-series analysis ; Probabilistic forecasting ; Seismicity and tectonics ; Computational seismology ; Statistical seismology ; Asia ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
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    Comparison of characteristic and Gutenberg–Richter models for time-dependentM ≥ 7.9 earthquake probability in the Nankai-Tokai subduction zone, Japan (2012)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-06-10
    Description: Earthquake forecasts are usually underinformed, and can be plagued by uncertainty in terms of the most appropriate model, and parameter values used in that model. In this paper, we explore the application of two different models to the same seismogenic area. The first is a renewal model based on the characteristic earthquake hypothesis that uses historical/palaeoseismic recurrence times, and fixed rupture geometries. The hazard rate is modified by the Coulomb static stress change caused by nearby earthquakes that occurred since the latest characteristic earthquake. The second model is a very simple earthquake simulator based on plate-motion, or fault-slip rates and adoption of a Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency distribution. This information is commonly available even if historical and palaeoseismic recurrence data are lacking. The intention is to develop and assess a simulator that has a very limited parameter set that could be used to calculate earthquake rates in settings that are not as rich with observations of large-earthquake recurrence behaviour as the Nankai trough. We find that the use of convergence rate as a primary constraint allows the simulator to replicate much of the spatial distribution of observed segmented rupture rates along the Nankai, Tonankai and Tokai subduction zones. Although we note rate differences between the two forecast methods in the Tokai zone, we also see enough similarities between simulations and observations to suggest that very simple earthquake rupture simulations based on empirical data and fundamental earthquake laws could be useful forecast tools in information-poor settings.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1673-1688
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Time series analysis ; Spatial analysis ; Probability distributions ; Seismic cycle ; Earthquake interaction ; forecasting, and prediction ; Statistical seismology. ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.05. Historical seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.05. Stress
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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