ALBERT

Description: The tension between the meaning of causality in science and law or public policy is well-known; however, defendants in product liability cases or industries that might be affected by a government regulation may try to convince the factfinder to require evidence of a causal relationship that meets the standards of science. From the perspective of public health, however, people may be exposed unnecessarily to a health risk during the time period between the establishment of reasonably strong evidence of a causal relationship and the overwhelming evidence required for scientific causality. The Bayesian paradigm enables one to update information from epidemiologic studies as they accumulate, providing estimates of the probability that the relative risk of a particular harm from exposure exceeds a threshold value, e.g. 2.0 or 4.0 that is sufficient to meet the preponderance of the evidence standard or to support a health initiative. In order to diminish the role of the initial prior distribution, which may be quite subjective, the first case-control study or an analysis of adverse event and case reports is used to determine two prior distributions. One is the most favourable to the defendant, or industry that might be regulated, which is consistent with the previous data. The other is centred on or near the estimated relative risk from the first study. The method is applied to the studies that linked aspirin use to Reye syndrome and demonstrates that the evidence of a causal association was sufficiently strong in 1982, when the Food and Drug Administration first proposed that the public be warned of the risk, to support the regulation. Thus, lives would have been saved had the warning been given at the end of 1982 rather than in early 1985.

Description: In law, inferences of causation are sometimes made through a structured process in which multiple participants play various roles, and make decisions concerning various logical components of the overall inference (such as legal rules, policy objectives, presumptions, evidence, burdens of proof and findings of fact). This article illustrates such a process using empirical research into compensation decisions in the USA for injuries allegedly caused by vaccinations. Empirical research into actual legal processes is essential, in order to discover how various players approach their sub-tasks of decision-making. It also provides insights for areas outside of law, such as non-monotonic logic, cognitive science, sociology and artificial intelligence.

Description: Situations of causal factual uncertainty are relatively common in law. The problems and difficulties regarding ‘factual causation’ in law point to the need of ‘evidence’ and ‘proof’ models that are adequate and capable to accommodate the tests and methodologies used to explain and demonstrate it in a legal context. Given the configuration of the situations of causal factual uncertainty and the available ‘evidence’ and ‘proof’ models, I argue that it is justified to use an ‘argumentative-narrative’ model for ‘proving causation’ in law. However, considering that each model of ‘evidence’ and ‘proof’ reveals a different kind of ‘rationality’ that can still be viewed in different ways, I also argue that we must try to match the perspective we have on the ‘rationality’ behind the chosen model of ‘evidence’ and ‘proof’ with the ‘rationality’ underlying ‘causation’ in law.

Description: At least in some cases, the values confronted in legal decision-making appear to be incommensurable. Some legal theorists resist incommensurability because they fear that this presents an overwhelming obstacle to rational decision-making. By offering a close analysis of proportionality and, more particularly, measures of proportional value satisfaction, I show that this fear is unfounded. Comparative measures of proportional value satisfaction do not require the values to be commensurable. However, assuming incommensurability presents us with the problem of public significance in the proportional satisfaction of values. When two values are commensurable, this public significance is provided by the mediating effects of the overarching third value that provides the common measure of the values. However, when this common measure is removed, then the public significance of value satisfaction must be otherwise achieved. This is why I propose an equal proportional value satisfaction as the most appropriate proportionality maximand. Under equal proportional value satisfaction, the proportional satisfaction of any one value has significance for each and every other value. This kind of public significance is interpersonal rather than impersonal (or second-personal rather than third-personal). The article then shows that the legal process that is most appropriate to equal proportionality is a process that implements defeasible legal rules.

Description: In order to allocate the risk between parties in legal adjudication, we use evidentiary techniques with the main device among them being the standard of proof (SoP). The traditional view holds the grade of probability to be the parameter that shifts when moving to different standards. However, as soon as we dig slightly deeper, an incoherent picture is being revealed. In this article, I challenge the accepted view and try to show that it faces insurmountable problems concerning the rationality, the grammatical consistency and the impact of the SoP for the acceptability of verdicts. At the end of the article, I shortly discuss the theory of epistemological contextualism and propose a framework that allows rational distinctions to be drawn between different standards of proof. In the second part of this project (forthcoming), I will defend a contextualist view according to which shifting parameter is not the grade of (aleatory) probability, but instead the Set of Epistemic Defeaters in play.

Description: This article focuses on the question of how decision makers with no relevant scientific background can (if at all) legitimately evaluate conflicting scientific expert testimonies and determine their relative reliability. Sceptics argue that non-experts can never reach justifiable conclusions regarding the merits of conflicting expert testimonies because they lack the fundamental epistemic capacity to make such judgement calls. In this article, I draw on works on epistemology, philosophy of practical reasoning, philosophy of science, science and technology studies, and legal theory in order to scrutinize recent proposals to solve the problem of conflicting scientific expert testimonies. Addressing this question is of ultimate importance due to the idea that immanent in the idea of rule-of-law there is an intellectual due process norm, which articulates that epistemically arbitrary legal decisions are also not legally justified. This article is divided into two Sections. In Section 2 , I describe the basic philosophical inquiries underlying the debate about expert testimony. In particular, I first elaborate on the philosophy of testimony and its epistemic justifications, then move to the idea of epistemic deference, and finish with philosophical accounts of expertise. Section 3 presents the problem of conflicting scientific expert testimonies and analyses recent attempts to solve it as formulated by Ward Jones, Alvin Goldman and Scott Brewer. I argue that there is no single criterion (or set of criteria) upon which the non-expert could rely in order to make a rationally justified decision in each and every case in which he faces conflicting scientific expert testimonies. The alternative view here defended is to stop looking for an epistemic panacea and accept the idea that testimonial reliability operates differently within different kinds of testimony—and differently within the same kind of testimony at different times.

Description: The criterion of bioequivalence of two drugs in infringement cases may differ from the requirements used for drug approval by the FDA. In Adams v . Perrigo , 1 the Federal Circuit examined three different sets of criteria for judging bioequivalence. The statistical properties of those criteria are explored and evaluated. Our results support the appellate court’s decision to impose less stringent requirements for bioequivalence in infringement cases.

Description: The North Carolina Racial Justice Act allows defendants to submit statistical studies of prosecutorial actions pertaining to their seeking the death penalty or in making peremptory challenges. These studies may consider data from four geographical regions: the state, county, judicial division or prosecutorial district. A study of the effect of race on peremptory challenges in death penalty cases demonstrating statistically significant disparities disadvantaging Black defendants has been submitted in several cases. This comment shows that a more appropriate statistical analysis yields much stronger statistical evidence that race entered into the peremptory challenge process in Randolph County than the affidavit submitted by the authors of the study. A subsequent sensitivity analysis indicates that in order for a characteristic to explain the highly statistically significant disparity, it would need to increase the odds of an individual being challenged by a factor of three and more than twice as many Black venire members would need to possess that characteristic as non-Blacks. Since the data examined excluded potential jurors who had been removed for cause, it may be difficult for the state to find a legitimate reason justifying the racial disparity.

Description: This article critically evaluates experiments used to justify inferences of specific source attribution (‘individualization’) to ‘100% certainty’ and ‘near-zero’ rates of error claimed by firearm toolmark examiners in court testimonies, and suggests approaches for establishing statistical foundations for firearm toolmarks practice that two recent National Academy of Science reports confirm do not currently exist. Issues that should be considered in the earliest stages of statistical foundational development for firearm toolmarks are discussed.

Description: Much debate exists between Frequentist and Bayesian methods in statistics. In the evaluation of evidence, the likelihood ratio is credited with quantifying the value of evidence in favour of one or other proposition by considering the probability of the evidence conditional on each proposition and this then converts the Bayesian prior odds into the posterior odds. Motivated by this approach, this paper considers an alternative p -value-based likelihood ratio by explicitly taking into account the behaviour of the Frequentist p -value under both hypotheses, rather than restricting focus solely on the null hypothesis. It is shown that by accommodating the alternative hypothesis, analysis leads to inferential conclusions which are consistent with Bayesian methods.

Description: This essay explores the implications of complexity for understanding both the law of evidence and the nature of the legal system. Among the propositions critically analysed is that one significant way to understand the general problem of the meaning of rationality is as a multivariate search for tools to understand and regulate a hostile environment. The law of evidence is conceptualized as a subset of this effort, at least in part, as involving a search for tools to regulate the almost infinitely complex domain of potentially relevant evidence and at the same time to accommodate policy demands. The proposition is then considered that the legal system of which the evidentiary system is a part has emergent properties that may not be deducible from its component parts, which suggests in turn that it may be, or at least has properties highly analogous to, a complex adaptive system. One implication of this analysis is that the tools of standard academic research that rely heavily on the isolation and reduction of analytical problems to manageable units to permit them to be subjected to standard deductive methodologies may need to be supplemented with analytical tools that facilitate the regulation of complex natural phenomena such as fluid dynamics. This has direct implications for such things as the conception of law as rules, and thus for the Hart–Dworkin debate that has dominated jurisprudence for 50 years. That debate may have mischaracterized the object of its inquiry, and thus the Dworkinian solution to the difficulties of positivism is inapplicable. It can certainly be shown that the Dworkinian solution is not achievable and cannot rationally be approximated. Solutions to legal problems within the legal system as a whole (as compared to any particular node within the legal system) are arrived at through a process of inference to the best explanation that occurs within a highly interconnected set of nodes similar to a neural or social network.

Description: Causation as an element of a criminal offence is different from the probative difficulties. The empirical laws that are relevant to the proof of causation, as a pure matter of fact, are not discussed here, but only causality as a category of our understanding and a general law of the intelligible world. This general law of causality is equally valid for all result crimes (e.g. homicide, bodily harm, deception offences and criminal damage). According to the European continental theory of conditions, any ‘conditio sine qua non’ is by itself a cause. Causation is established by the formula of ‘conditio’ (similar to the so-called ‘but for’ test in the common law), which corresponds to a counterfactual reasoning. However, that formula is not able to resolve adequately those cases of causal overdetermination where the result occurred by means of actions of multiple, independently intervening agents. A semantic model of the world evolution, based upon ramified temporal logic, may assist the comprehension of causal connections between human actions and the relevant results. At the end of the day, this model allows us to understand that even in situations where no kind of factual uncertainty is present, doubts upon the attribution of causation to specific agents remain. We shall conclude that the attribution of causation is not a natural problem, but a logico-legal one, that has to be dealt with by way of logico-legal criteria. Nevertheless, attribution of causation must be clearly distinguished from objective imputation of proscribed harm.

Description: Over the course of the past few decades, there has been an exponential growth in environmental courts and tribunals (ECTs). At present, over 350 of these specialized fora for resolving environmental disputes exist, spanning across every region throughout the world. Some of the ECTs have been more successful but others have been less successful. This article identifies 12 characteristics that experience suggests are required for an environmental court or tribunal to operate successfully in practice, drawing upon examples from multiple jurisdictions. In identifying best practices, both substantive and procedural, from existing ECTs, this article will assist two groups: first, stakeholders who are in the process of planning or creating environmental courts or tribunals in their jurisdictions and, secondly, stakeholders and countries that are looking to improve the functioning and performance of their own ECTs.

Description: Legal education plays an important but under-acknowledged role in anthropogenic environmental change because it shapes and qualifies people to become lawyers, judges and policy makers. Their work can prohibit and legitimate particular environmental practices. The conceptual framework of law, its taxonomy, as taught to students of law, often perpetuates an unsustainable relationship to the environment where it separates questions of entitlement to land and natural resources from questions of responsibility for them. The implication of perpetuating this separation in law curricula is that generations of legal practitioners will remain unlikely to develop a coherent system of environmental law that aligns rights with responsibilities. Environmental education scholar David Orr argues that ‘all education is environmental education’. But legal education often excludes environmental considerations even where these are materially relevant. Given the role of legal education in shaping future law, this article contends that rethinking its categories opens the possibility to create sustainable land use practice laws and policy.

Description: This article utilises the concept of interdisciplinarity as a background against which to reflect on the nature of environmental law scholarship. The article argues that, while interdisciplinary scholarship has some tangible benefits in terms of expanding the perimeters of a discipline, the effects of interdisciplinary work are often exaggerated. In fact, interdisciplinary scholarship may have the unintended consequence of entrenching academic disciplines even further. In light of this, it is argued that environmental law scholarship is best perceived and defined as a deliberative practice which takes place within, and speaks to, a specific community of scholars—an interpretive community. In order to secure a vibrant discipline, the article argues that the community ought to maintain a flexible, open-ended and broadly defined approach to environmental law scholarship.

Description: European Union (EU) legal studies generally picture the Member States’ local and regional authorities as implementers of national and supranational norms rather than independent regulators. Yet, sub-national authorities (SNAs) have become active regulators in the context of climate change mitigation and adaptation, a role not foreseen by EU primary law, which this article understands to constitute the surface of EU law. This article examines regulatory activity of SNAs from the perspective of EU law. It illustrates that sub-national, national, supranational and international actors are engaged in a process of mutual learning and experimentation and that, below its surface, EU law recognises that SNAs are not mere implementers of norms but also independent regulators.

Description: This article presents a fresh analysis of the implications of the 2006 judgment of the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) in Case C-244/05 Bund Naturschutz in Bayern , which clarified the standard of legal protection afforded to sites eligible for adoption as Sites of Community Importance (SCIs) under the EU’s Habitats Directive. The article argues that, as a result of this line of case law, it will be unlawful ( at least in certain cases, and perhaps in all) to apply the Article 6(4) Habitats Directive derogation in respect of eligible sites which have not yet been adopted by the European Commission as SCIs. The Commission appears to have been aware of this potential implication, and acted swiftly to minimise the potentially disruptive impact of the judgment on plans and projects within the EU. The article also considers the relevance of the CJEU’s Sweetman judgment ( C-258/11 ) to the Bund Naturschutz in Bayern line of jurisprudence.

Description: What does the specialised nature of an environment court entitle it to do? The recent decision of the New Zealand Supreme Court in Environmental Defence Society Incorporated v Marlborough District Council (‘the King Salmon case’)[2014] NZSC 38 helps to answer this question. For the past 20 years, the New Zealand Environment Court has decided applications within a framework of the broadly defined statutory purpose of sustainable resource management. The King Salmon case narrows this wide discretion. This article analyses the implications of the decision, suggesting that it helps to delineate between functions of specialist environment courts that may be considered appropriate (adjudicative and legislative fact finding) and decision-making that strays too far into the policy-sphere.

Description: This article compares the protection from unnecessary suffering afforded to wild animals with that afforded to domesticated animals and animals under human control. It considers various forms of species-specific biodiversity- and conservation-based protection for wild animals, under legislation such as the Wildlife and Countryside Act 1981 and the Conservation of Habitats and Species Regulations 2010, as well as the general protection from intentionally inflicted unnecessary suffering afforded to wild mammals under the Wild Mammals (Protection) Act 1996. The article then compares the standard of protection afforded to wild animals with that afforded to non-wild animals under section 4 of the Animal Welfare Act 2006, which criminalises unnecessary suffering unreasonably caused to non-wild animals.

Description: The role played by the required level of statistical significance in the scientific method should not be seen as analogous to that played by the standard of proof in the legal process.

Description: The Supreme Court ruled in Matrixx that statistical significance is not necessary to show that a drug caused an adverse reaction. Five circuit court decisions holding otherwise preceded this decision. This paper examines the extent to which the Supreme Court’s reasoning differed from those of the circuit courts.

Description: Unlike the evaluation of single items of scientific evidence, the formal study and analysis of the joint evaluation of several distinct items of forensic evidence has to date received some punctual, rather than systematic, attention. Questions about the (i) relationships among a set of (usually unobservable) propositions and a set of (observable) items of scientific evidence, (ii) the joint probative value of a collection of distinct items of evidence as well as (iii) the contribution of each individual item within a given group of pieces of evidence still represent fundamental areas of research. To some degree, this is remarkable since both, forensic science theory and practice, yet many daily inference tasks, require the consideration of multiple items if not masses of evidence. A recurrent and particular complication that arises in such settings is that the application of probability theory, i.e. the reference method for reasoning under uncertainty, becomes increasingly demanding. The present paper takes this as a starting point and discusses graphical probability models, i.e. Bayesian networks, as framework within which the joint evaluation of scientific evidence can be approached in some viable way. Based on a review of existing main contributions in this area, the article here aims at presenting instances of real case studies from the author’s institution in order to point out the usefulness and capacities of Bayesian networks for the probabilistic assessment of the probative value of multiple and interrelated items of evidence. A main emphasis is placed on underlying general patterns of inference, their representation as well as their graphical probabilistic analysis. Attention is also drawn to inferential interactions, such as redundancy, synergy and directional change. These distinguish the joint evaluation of evidence from assessments of isolated items of evidence. Together, these topics present aspects of interest to both, domain experts and recipients of expert information, because they have bearing on how multiple items of evidence are meaningfully and appropriately set into context.

Description: In its first foray into the labyrinth that causation in personal injury has become, the U.K. Supreme Court recently held obiter that statistical evidence alone could not establish causation. But in an earlier toxic tort case, the High Court had relied on epidemiological evidence to identify a cluster of birth defects arising in the vicinity of a contaminated land site. This recent British experience is then discussed within the wider context of the forensic role of ‘naked statistics’.

Description: Scales of conclusion in forensic interpretation play an important role in the interface between scientific work at a forensic laboratory and different bodies of the jurisdictional system of a country. Of particular importance is the use of a unified scale that allows interpretation of different kinds of evidence in one common framework. The logical approach to forensic interpretation comprises the use of the likelihood ratio as a measure of evidentiary strength. While fully understood by forensic scientists, the likelihood ratio may be hard to interpret for a person not trained in natural sciences or mathematics. Translation of likelihood ratios to an ordinal scale including verbal counterparts of the levels is therefore a necessary procedure for communicating evidence values to the police and in the courtroom. In this paper, we present a method to develop an ordinal scale for the value of evidence that can be applied to any type of forensic findings. The method is built on probabilistic reasoning about the interpretation of findings and the number of scale levels chosen is a compromise between a pragmatic limit and mathematically well-defined distances between levels. The application of the unified scale is illustrated by a number of case studies.

Description: In personal injury litigation, claimants may seek their compensation for future losses or expenses as a lump sum that is determined by the product of a multiplicand and a multiplier. The multiplicand represents the annual loss in earnings and other benefits, as assessed at the trial date, while the multiplier discounts future pecuniary values into a single present-day lump sum amount. At present, multipliers in the UK are calculated using actuarial methods and based on assumed mortality and interest rates. However, it is entirely possible that these assumptions are incorrect, and if they are, then all claimants who rely on the same set of actuarial multipliers will be affected. In this article, we investigate how the uncertainty surrounding mortality and interest rate assumptions affects the precision of actuarial multipliers. With the aid of stochastic models, we estimate the possible range of values that an actuarial multiplier can take.

Description: In 2010, a ruling in the England and Wales Appeal Court quashed a conviction in a homicide case wherein the evidence rested heavily on the association of a shoe sole and a crime scene footwear mark. This decision addressed and criticized the use of the Bayesian approach and likelihood ratios for this form of evidence. The court’s comments and the values used by the footwear mark examiner as applied to his Bayesian evaluation and likelihood ratio are discussed. A contrast is drawn to this method versus the traditional footwear mark evaluation used by footwear examiners in the USA and most other countries.

Description: This article analyses and discusses issues that pertain to the choice of relevant databases for assigning values to the components of evaluative likelihood ratio procedures at source level. Although several formal likelihood ratio developments currently exist, both case practitioners and recipients of expert information (such as judiciary) may be reluctant to consider them as a framework for evaluating scientific evidence in context. The recent ruling R v T 1 and ensuing discussions in many forums provide illustrative examples for this. In particular, it is often felt that likelihood ratio-based reasoning amounts to an application that requires extensive quantitative information along with means for dealing with technicalities related to the algebraic formulation of these approaches. With regard to this objection, this article proposes two distinct discussions. In a first part, it is argued that, from a methodological point of view, there are additional levels of qualitative evaluation that are worth considering prior to focusing on particular numerical probability assignments. Analyses will be proposed that intend to show that, under certain assumptions, relative numerical values, as opposed to absolute values, may be sufficient to characterize a likelihood ratio for practical and pragmatic purposes. The feasibility of such qualitative considerations points out that the availability of hard numerical data is not a necessary requirement for implementing a likelihood ratio approach in practice. It is further argued that, even if numerical evaluations can be made, qualitative considerations may be valuable because they can further the understanding of the logical underpinnings of an assessment. In a second part, the article will draw a parallel to R v T by concentrating on a practical footwear mark case received at the authors' institute. This case will serve the purpose of exemplifying the possible usage of data from various sources in casework and help to discuss the difficulty associated with reconciling the depth of theoretical likelihood ratio developments and limitations in the degree to which these developments can actually be applied in practice.

Description: Forensic science evidence must be presented in a form that can be accommodated within the process of proof employed by judges and juries. This is a non-mathematical inductive process that seeks ‘the inference to best explanation’ to a standard of proof beyond reasonable doubt. The question posed is not the mathematical probability of the prosecution hypothesis but whether having regard to all the evidence before the court the prosecution hypothesis is the only explicable hypothesis, in the sense that no reasonably possible defence hypothesis remains open. The challenge is to present forensic science evidence in a form that can be accommodated within this non-mathematical inductive standard of proof. It is argued that this is most effectively achieved if that evidence is tendered as a frequency rather than as a likelihood ratio.

Description: The ability of the experienced forensic scientist to evaluate his or her results given the circumstances and propositions in a particular case and present this to the court in a clear and concise way is very important for the legal process. Court officials can neither be expected to be able to interpret scientific data, nor is it their task to do so (in our opinion). The duty of the court is rather to perform the ultimate evidence evaluation of all the information in the case combined, including police reports, statements from suspects and victims, witness reports forensic expert statements, etc. Without the aid of the forensic expert, valuable forensic results may be overlooked or misinterpreted in this process. The scientific framework for forensic interpretation stems from Bayesian theory. The resulting likelihood ratio, which may be expressed using a verbal or a numerical scale, compares how frequent are the obtained results given that one of the propositions holds with how frequent they are given that the other proposition holds. A common misunderstanding is that this approach must be restricted to forensic areas such as DNA evidence where extensive background information is present in the form of comprehensive databases. In this article we argue that the approach with likelihood ratios is equally applicable in areas where the results rely on scientific background data combined with the knowledge and experience of the forensic scientist. In such forensic areas the scale of the likelihood ratio may be rougher compared to a DNA case, but the information that is conveyed by the likelihood ratio may nevertheless be highly valuable for the court.

Description: Experts providing evidence in legal cases are universally recommended to be transparent, particularly in their reasoning, so that legal practitioners can critically check whether the conclusions are adequately supported by the results. However, when exploring the practical meaning of this recommendation it becomes clear that people have different things in mind. The UK appeal court case R v T painfully exposes the different views. In this article we argue that there can be a trade-off between clarity and transparency, and that in some cases it is impossible for the legal practitioner to be able to follow the expert’s reasoning in full detail because of the level of complexity. All that can be expected in these cases is that the legal practitioner is able to understand the reasoning up to a certain level. We propose that experts should only report the main arguments, but must make this clear and provide further details on request. Reporting guidelines should address the reasoning in more detail. Legal practitioners and scientists should not be telling each other what to do in the setting of a legal case, but in other settings more discussion will be beneficial to both. We see the likelihood ratio framework and Bayesian networks as tools to promote transparency and logic. Finally, we argue that transparency requires making clear whether a conclusion is a consensus and reporting diverging opinions on request.

Description: This paper discusses the analysis of cases in which the inclusion or exclusion of a particular suspect, as a possible contributor to a DNA mixture, depends on the value of a variable (the number of contributors) that cannot be determined with certainty. It offers alternative ways to deal with such cases, including sensitivity analysis and object-oriented Bayesian networks, that separate uncertainty about the inclusion of the suspect from uncertainty about other variables. The paper presents a case study in which the value of DNA evidence varies radically depending on the number of contributors to a DNA mixture: if there are two contributors, the suspect is excluded; if there are three or more, the suspect is included; but the number of contributors cannot be determined with certainty. It shows how an object-oriented Bayesian network can accommodate and integrate varying perspectives on the unknown variable and how it can reduce the potential for bias by directing attention to relevant considerations and distinguishing different sources of uncertainty. It also discusses the challenge of presenting such evidence to lay audiences.

Description: The concept of balancing is of central importance in the assessment of legislative choices and in constitutional review. In conformity with the global tendency, balancing is increasingly used in judicial practice as an argumentation technique for solving legal disputes; more and more, judges of all levels ground their decisions on the balancing of individual rights, interests, principles, needs, and values. Legal science has formulated theoretical and formal models to explain the argumentation structure of balancing and the criteria governing the argumentation process, but, in the absence of a conceptual model that encompasses all elements in play and enables a comparative mechanism to be abstracted, mapping instances of judicial practice to abstract theories is still difficult. In this context, the objective of the project described here is to allow the logic of judicial practice emerge from cases, verifying from the bottom up the assumptions of theoretical models. Starting off from a broad analysis of Italian cases, the paper aims at analysing the object of this operation, i.e. what is `balanced' and what is the nature of this process. The research was conducted by analysing the so-called `massime' (case law abstracts) of the Italian High Courts (Constitutional Court, Supreme Court, Council of State) of the administrative courts (Regional Administrative Tribunals) and of a selection of lower court decisions. The methodology is divided into an initial phase of documentary collection and storage, a second phase of conceptual modelling and a third phase of data analysis.

Description: The ‘minimax theorem’ is the most recognized theorem for determining strategies in a two-person zero-sum game. Other common strategies exist such as the ‘maximax principle’ and ‘minimize the maximum regret principle’. All these strategies follow the Von Neumann and Morgenstern linearity axiom which states that numbers in the game matrix must be cardinal utilities and can be transformed by any positive linear function f ( x )= a x + b , a 〉 0, without changing the information they convey. This paper describes risk-aversestrategies for a two-person zero-sum game where the linearity axiom may not hold. With connections to gambling theory, there is evidence to show why it can be optimal for the favourable player to adopt risk-averse strategies. Based on this approach, an arbitration value is obtained in a litigation game, where the amount awarded to the victim is less than expectation and shown to be ‘fairer’ when compared with the amount obtained using the Von Neumann and Morgenstern game theory framework.

Description: The present paper focuses on the analysis and discussion of a likelihood ratio (LR) development for propositions at a hierarchical level known in the context as ‘offence level’. Existing literature on the topic has considered LR developments for so-called offender to scene transfer cases. These settings involve—in their simplest form—a single stain found on a crime scene, but with possible uncertainty about the degree to which that stain is relevant (i.e. that it has been left by the offender). Extensions to multiple stains or multiple offenders have also been reported. The purpose of this paper is to discuss a development of a LR for offence level propositions when case settings involve potential transfer in the opposite direction, i.e. victim/scene to offender transfer. This setting has previously not yet been considered. The rationale behind the proposed LR is illustrated through graphical probability models (i.e. Bayesian networks). The role of various uncertain parameters is investigated through sensitivity analyses as well as simulations.

Description: In this paper, we introduce methodology—causal directed acyclic graphs (DAGs)—that empirical researchers can use to identify causation, avoid bias, and interpret empirical results. This methodology is popular in a number of disciplines, including statistics, biostatistics, epidemiology and computer science, but has not yet appeared in the empirical legal literature. Accordingly, we outline the rules and principles underlying this methodology and then show how it can assist empirical researchers through both hypothetical and real-world examples found in the extant literature. While causal DAGs are not a panacea for all empirical problems, we show that they have potential to make the most basic and fundamental tasks, such as selecting covariate controls, relatively easy and straightforward.

Description: Legal analysis is dominated by legal arguments, and the assessment of any legal claim requires the assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of those arguments. The ‘logocratic’ method is a systematic method for assessing the strengths and weaknesses of arguments. More specifically, it is a method designed to help the analyst determine what degree of warrant the premises of an argument provide for its conclusion. Although the method is applicable to any type of argument, this essay focuses on the logocratic framework for assessing the strengths and weaknesses of evidentiary legal arguments, arguments offered in litigation in which evidentiary propositions are proffered to support hypotheses. The focus is on American law, but the logocratic analysis offered here could be adjusted without much trouble to handle arguments about evidence in other systems of litigation. In any legal system that aspires to have a fact-finding process that is sufficiently reliable to meet the requirements of justice, we might fashion an analogue for the Socratic maxim ‘the unexamined life is not worth living’: the unexamined evidentiary argument is not worth believing. The logocratic method seeks to help the evidence analyst pursue that Socratic mission, tailored to the rules and institutions of evidence law.

Description: The formal structure of decision-making under uncertainty used in legal trials bears a noteworthy similarity to the structure of decision-making under uncertainty used in hypothesis testing in empirical science. The first purpose of this article was to explicate those similarities. Secondly, the article reviews the historical origins of these decision-making schemes in both law and science, finding that they evolved independent of each other to serve similar functions.

Description: When many individual plaintiffs have similar claims against the same defendant, often it is more efficient for them to be combined into a single class action. Due to their increased complexity and larger stakes, in the USA there are special criteria a party seeking to proceed as a class action needs to satisfy. Statistical evidence is often submitted to establish that the members of the proposed class were affected by a common event or policy. In equal employment cases involving an employer with a number of locations or subunits, defendants may argue that the data should be examined separately for each unit, while plaintiffs may pool the data into one or several large samples or focus on a few units in which statistical significance was observed. After describing the statistical issues involved, it will be seen that requiring plaintiffs to demonstrate a statistically significant disparity in a pre-set fraction, e.g. majority of the subunits is too stringent as the power of the statistical test to detect a meaningful disparity in most subunits is too small. On the other hand, when many statistical tests are calculated on data from a fair system, a small percentage of significant disparities will be obtained. Thus, allowing a class action to proceed if the plaintiffs can demonstrate a statistically significant difference in a few subunits is too lax. The use of established methods for combining statistical tests for data organized by appropriate subgroups will be illustrated on data from two recent cases. Using the concept of power, the expected number, E , of subunits in which a statistically significant result would occur if there were a legally meaningful disparity can be determined. Then the observed number, O , of units with a significant disparity can be compared to E , to see whether data are consistent with a pattern, O close to E , indicating unfairness or O clearly less than E , reflecting fairness. Without such a comparison, the number of units with a statistically significant disparity is not meaningful. Both parties in Dukes v. Wal-mart introduced summaries of the p -values of many individual statistical tests that grouped them into a small number of categories. An appropriate overall procedure combines them into a single summary statistic. This analysis shows that the promotion data for the 40 or 41 regions in the Wal-mart case are consistent with an overall system in which the odds an eligible female being promoted were about 70–80% of those of a male. A similar analysis of the p -values of Wal-mart's subunit regressions also is consistent with a general pattern of a degree of underpayment of female employees relative to that of similarly qualified males.

Description: In 1970, Michael O. Finkelstein (with William B. Fairley) proposed that under some circumstances a jury in a criminal trial might be invited to use Bayes’ Theorem to address the issue of the identity of the criminal perpetrator. In 1971, Laurence Tribe responded with a rhetorically powerful and wide-ranging attack on what he called ‘trial by mathematics’. Finkelstein responded to Tribe's attack by further explaining, refining and defending his proposal. Although Tribe soon fell silent on the use of mathematical and formal methods to dissect or regulate uncertain factual proof in legal proceedings, the Finkelstein–Tribe exchange precipitated a decades-long debate about trial by mathematics. But that debate, which continues to this day, became generally unproductive and sterile years ago. This happened in part because two misunderstandings plagued much of the debate almost from the start. The first misunderstanding was a widespread failure to appreciate that mathematics is part of a broader family of rigorous methods of reasoning, a family of methods that is often called ‘formal’. The second misunderstanding was a widespread failure to appreciate that mathematical and formal analyses (including analyses that use numbers) can have a large variety of purposes. Before any further major research project on trial by mathematics is begun, interested researchers in mathematics, probability, logic and related fields, on the one hand, and interested legal professionals, on the other hand, should try to reach agreement about the possible distinct purposes that any given mathematical or formal analysis of inconclusive argument about uncertain factual hypotheses might serve. The article lists some of those possible purposes.

Description: This paper uses tools from argumentation and artificial intelligence to build a system to analyse reasoning from a motive to an action and reasoning from circumstantial evidence of actions to a motive. The tools include argument mapping, argumentation schemes, inference to the best explanation and a hybrid method of combining argument and explanation. Several examples of use of relevant motive evidence in law are used to illustrate how the system works. It is shown how adjudicating cases where motive of evidence is relevant depends on a balance of argumentation that can be tilted to one side or the other using plausible reasoning that combines arguments and explanations.

Description: It is investigated how implementing the likelihood ratio (LR) framework works out in the case of camera identification based on image-sensor-specific noise patterns. Two typical case scenarios are considered, one with images of low quality andthe other with images of high quality. In both cases, it is possible to obtain statistical distributions having a good fit with the reference data both for ‘matching’ and for ‘non-matching’ comparisons, and LRs are determined. It turns out that if the reference data are well separated, in the case of ‘matching’ images/cameras, the statistical fit of the distribution for ‘non-matches’ is constantly evaluated in a range where there is a lack of reference data. Because of this extrapolation issue, the LRsthat emerge are not reliable. This is not a problem that is unique to camera identification: if the informative value of any forensic comparison is high the problem emerges. An alternative approach is presented which consists of choosing a threshold value separating ‘matches’ from ‘non-matches’ and quantifying the strength of evidence of being larger/smaller than this value. If sample sizes of reference data increase LR results will increase as well, and it is shown that this approach is stable.

Description: The offence risk posed by individuals who are arrested, but where subsequently no charge or caution is administered, has been used as an argument for justifying the retention of such individuals' DNA and identification profiles. Here we consider the UK Home Office arrest-to-arrest data analysis, and find it to have limited use in indicating risk of future offence. In doing so, we consider the appropriateness of the statistical methodology employed and the implicit assumptions necessary for making such inference concerning the rearrest risk of a further individual. Additionally, we offer an alternative model that would provide an equally accurate fit to the data, but which would appear to have sounder theoretical justification and suggest alternative policy direction. Finally, we consider the implications of using such statistical inference in formulating national policy, and highlight a number of sociological factors that could be taken into account so as to enhance the validity of any future analysis.

Description: From the Wiley website: `Probability theory, implemented through graphical methods, specifically Bayesian networks, offers a powerful tool to deal with complex questions in forensic science and discover valid patterns in data. [This book] provides a unique and comprehensive introduction to the use of Bayesian networks for the evaluation of scientific evidence in forensic science.' The book opens with several introductory chapters on probability, Bayesian networks (BNs) and basic principles of evidence evaluation. There follow chapters on DNA evidence and transfer evidence such as fibres. The final chapters cover some more advanced general topics such as combinations of evidence, sensitivity analysis and qualitative and continuous networks. The level of discussion is reasonably elementary and at a leisurely pace, allowing an interested reader with little mathematical training to follow the arguments. But do not let me mislead you into thinking this is `light reading', the issues in forensic problems can be subtle and there are many aspects to consider, so one can easily get lost in complexities. The theoretical development is illustrated with simple examples worked through in considerable detail. Indeed, while the level of detail provided for the early examples will be appreciated by many readers, as the book advances the examples are still treated in great detail, which I feel precluded more substantial and realistic examples. For the very simple problems amenable to such treatment, the overhead in setting up a problem in the BN formalism can seem not worth the benefit. In practice, the reader is encouraged to use BN software to explore further examples on their own; specifically, the authors use the HUGIN package for which a `Lite' version is available free.

Description: In this special section of this issue of Science and Public Policy , authors are reflecting the fundamental challenges that the rapid progress in science and technology poses for human rights and privacy in particular. They aim to find new answers to the question how a (global) governance of science and technology could address these challenges. Earlier versions of the papers were presented at the International Conference on Privacy and Emerging Sciences and Technologies, held 27-28 November 2012 in Berlin and at the First European Conference on Technology Assessment that took place in Prague on 13-15 March 2013.

Description: The possibility of so-called ‘smart' technologies to improve city life has filled both pages of concern and PR leaflets. While the corporations driving these developments have emphasized how smart technologies can improve efficiency, critics have warned against the risks associated with the proliferation of smart surveillance. However, a critical discourse about the potential, limits and risks of the proliferation of smart technologies has not yet emerged, and in most instances public officials and decision-makers are ill-equipped to judge both the value and the externalities of the technologies being sold under the label ‘smart cities'. This paper presents a summary of smart solutions and definitions, and draws on the surveillance literature to address issues and risks related to the global drive to outsmart competing cities in a context of global governance. Using a multi-faceted and multi-disciplinary approach, it aims to provide a starting point for a public debate that involves policy-makers, developers and academics.

Description: With social network sites (SNS) becoming a pervasive phenomenon, already existing conflicts with privacy are further intensified. As shown in this paper, online and (once) offline contexts increasingly conflate, thereby posing new challenges to the protection of the private sphere. SNS quickly evolve their features and challenge privacy preferences, often without user consent; ‘social graphs’ make social relations highly transparent; social plugins interconnect user traces from within and outside the SNS. As the large amounts of personal information available in SNS are processed with context-rich information, the individual’s informational self-determination is heavily strained. These data attract potential and real observers for behavioural advertising and also for profiling by security authorities. We argue that the emerging usage of SNS (social plugins, increasing role of biometrics and mobile computing) multiplies privacy challenges as all types of privacy become affected. This raises additional demand for public policy to foster privacy-by-design combined with awareness-raising mechanisms to improve informational self-determination.

Description: This paper critically explores, from a political economy perspective on public policy, the commodification of privacy on the Internet as a practical-economic and a discursive process. On the one hand, dominant online business models conflict structurally with users’ need for privacy and the users themselves work on their own powerlessness in this regard. On the other hand, there is a privacy discourse that is possessive individualistic in nature but broadly informs the public policy process. It is argued that this discourse is not suitable to prevent economic-practical commodification of personal data and its problems. Criteria and strategies for improvement are identified, and concrete legal, self-regulatory, and technical implications for public privacy policy are derived. This paper uses material from a qualitative interview study and the example of social networking sites to exemplify its theoretical claims.

Description: This paper presents the results of an exploratory study into the science–policy experiences of former Environment Ministers (senior politicians) and Department Secretaries/Deputy Ministers (senior public servants) to better understand the role of science-based knowledge in the Executive decision-making processes of Westminster-based governments. Our participants identified a number of factors affecting the value of science-based evidence to strategic public policy processes. They described a lack of access to appropriately contextualized knowledge and a lack of accountability to demonstrate how science was considered in Cabinet decision-making. Many participants felt senior academics had an obligation to be more involved in public policy debates, to advocate policy positions based on their research and to ask questions that could assist governments on environmental issues. Concomitant was the desire for fundamental institutional changes, including greater use of deliberative public participation tools in environmental science and policy and more networked approaches to science.

Description: The concept of responsible research and innovation (RRI) is increasingly used to describe novel ways of governing research and the relationship between key research stakeholders including researchers, industry, policy-makers and civil society. It is thus of key importance for science, research and innovation policy. This paper defines RRI as a higher-level responsibility or meta-responsibility that aims to shape, maintain, develop, coordinate and align existing and novel research and innovation-related processes, actors and responsibilities with a view to ensuring desirable and acceptable research outcomes. It shows the role privacy has in the developing framework of RRI. The paper discusses dimensions of RRI as well as weaknesses of the current approach towards RRI and provides future directions for research and practice that will allow RRI to live up to its promise and ensure that past and present work on privacy and data protection find an appropriate place within this framework.

Description: Nations, universities, and regional governments promote the dissemination of scientific and technical knowledge. They focus on knowledge-based innovations and the university’s economic function in terms of technology transfer, intellectual property, university–industry–government relations etc. Faculties other than engineering or applied sciences, however, may not be able to recognize opportunities in this ‘linear model’ of technology transfer. We elaborate a non-market perspective on the third mission in terms of disclosure of the knowledge and areas of expertise available for disclosure to other audiences at a provincial university. The use of information and communications technologies can enhance communication between actors on the supply and demand sides. Using an idea developed in the context of the Dutch science shops, university staff were questioned about keywords and areas of expertise with the specific purpose of disclosing this information to audiences other than academic colleagues. The results were brought online in a hyperlink index structure.

Description: This paper presents a bottom-up approach to systematising the informal assessment dimensions of security technologies. Drawing on the empirical analysis of different security technology projects within mass transport systems, it shows how decision-making on the development and implementation of security technologies is influenced by the divergent perspectives of the actors and conflicting criteria within those areas. An attempt to sort assessment perspectives is presented. It is argued that the purpose of a structured approach to societal impact assessment (SIA) is particularly to stress conflict and divergent perspectives. Thus, a SIA has to create a space for discussion and negotiation that ensures a continuous enhancement of inter-subjectivity without the compulsion to find consensus at all stages of the R&D process. The overall objective of a SIA of security technologies is to enhance the accountability of decision-making.

Description: The current financial crisis has important consequences for small national research systems of the European periphery, where in some cases it leads to reform and significant downsizing of public R&D efforts. This paper develops a normative theoretical framework for guiding decisions concerning reform of R&D systems in periods of financial crises. The aim is to provide guidance for the reform of Greek R&D system and lessons for other national R&D systems faced with financial crises. Contrary to what is generally regarded as ‘perceived wisdom’, this paper argues that periods of crisis are not suitable for major reforms of R&D systems, even though they may seem to provide political opportunities for reform. Crises exacerbate the costs of R&D reforms and restrict the potential for benefits. Crises, as the discussion of the case of Greece shows, can undermine the trust between the government and the research community, generating important barriers to reform.

Description: Space debris comprises all non-functional human-made objects in Earth orbit or re-entering the atmosphere. Potentially hazardous orbital debris is proliferating. If current trends continue, orbital debris will become a significant factor in constraining space activity. Space, however, is one of the most strategically important theatres of the 21st century. It is thus imperative, given humanity’s reliance on space, that the issue of space debris be addressed. This paper provides an overview of the existing space debris environment, sources of debris and international efforts to monitor it. It analyses space debris mitigation guidelines and the proposed International Code of Conduct for Outer Space Activities. It considers an international treaty to govern space debris as well as the establishment of an international review board to assist in regulating and reducing the amount of debris. It also assesses the challenges of remediation and other policy actions to increase international cooperation to preserve the space environment.

Description: New and emerging technologies often raise both ethical and privacy issues. The analysis and assessment of such issues is the task of privacy impact assessments and ethical impact assessments. Although there are various privacy impact assessment methodologies and ethical impact assessment methodologies, the two have not been integrated. Nevertheless, some researchers have been thinking about the utility and feasibility of integrating privacy and ethical impact assessment methodologies.

Description: The essential thesis of this article is that, as corporate and project finance trends continue in nuclear power plant financing, resulting in diversified and much broader and more complex structures of foreign investment, international investment law will become increasingly relevant to and influential upon these transactions. This in turn will spawn a new wave of disputes based in international investment law claims, before international arbitral tribunals including the ICSID. After discussing the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster, and the first international investment law case directly related to an investment in a nuclear power plant, the article begins by describing recent trends in the financing of nuclear power plants. These trends include a shift from almost exclusively sovereign-assumed financing cost and risk, to other financing models which increasingly access global capital markets, and spread risk among a larger and more diverse set of investors. It then proceeds to review and consider the international legal sources addressing nuclear energy development and related international trade and investment transactions, focusing on the sources of international investment law. It considers both the primary ways in which the current trends in nuclear power plant financing are making international investment law increasingly relevant to nuclear-power-plant-related investments, as well as the secondary effect this increasing relevance will likely have upon future structuring of financing arrangements for new nuclear power plants. The article provides detailed consideration of the application of international investment law to foreign investments in nuclear power plants, including areas in which host states of such investments are most likely to experience increased exposure to liability due to current financing trends. It concludes with a further consideration of the secondary effects caused by this increased host state exposure to liability, including effects on future structuring of financing arrangements for new nuclear power plants, and effects on (re)negotiations of international investment law instruments between actual or potential host states, and states that are actual or potential home states of nuclear vendors and investors.

Description: Shale gas developments in the USA have led to a hype about the energy security prospects for other world regions, eager to replicate the American success story. In Europe, shale gas developments have remained in their infancy. As we argue in this piece, it is likely that this situation will continue and the shale gas ‘revolution’ is one that remains restricted. We compare shale gas technology to solar and nuclear, each at the time coined a game changer for energy security, and hyped as key to a sustainable energy future. We argue that shale gas perceived as an unproven and risky technology, fails to surpass essential policy, industry and social barriers required for a new energy technology innovation to succeed.

Description: Liberia has huge potential to be an oil-producing nation in the near future. With an increasing number of hydrocarbon discoveries in West Africa over the past few years and oil discovery in February 2012 in the Narina well offshore Liberia by African Petroleum, interest in Liberia and West Africa should only accelerate. Indeed, major oil and gas companies such as Chevron, Tullow, Repsol, Anadarko and ENI already hold acreage in Liberia, and ExxonMobil recently acquired an interest. This article looks at a new model of Production Sharing Contract, which was developed as part of a recent transaction whereby Canadian Overseas Petroleum (Bermuda) Limited (COPLB) and ExxonMobil Exploration and Production Liberia Limited (ExxonMobil Liberia) acquired 20 per cent and 80 per cent, respectively, of Liberia Offshore Block LB-13 (Block LB-13). This article examines certain key features of the Production Sharing Contract entered into as part of the above transaction and how the issues addressed in this Production Sharing Contract might be applied to other emerging oil nations in West Africa.

Description: The Brazilian regulatory framework for petroleum exploration and production activities was significantly altered after the discovery of pre-salt province. In addition to Act No. 9.478, of 6 August 1997, four new Laws were launched since 2010, creating a new oil company—Pre-Sal Petroleo S.A. (PPSA)—and establishing two other types of international petroleum agreement—production sharing contract (PSC) and onerous assignment agreement. This article aims to explain the new rules launched, and also assess the role of the agents involved and their competences. Present article will also analyse the three petroleum agreements provided by Brazilian Law: concession agreements, onerous assignment and PSC.

Description: James Baily and Rachel Lidgate consider current issues arising in relation to LNG price reviews, set against the historical background to such disputes and the recent, unprecedented volatility seen in gas markets.

Description: A lawyer’s perspective on the history of what has become the largest integrated oil and gas company in the world, the challenges faced by Saudi Aramco as the national oil company of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and its response to those challenges.

Description: During the week of 9 December 2013 Mexico’s Congress officially launched Mexico’s long awaited, heavily debated, and much talked about Energy Sector Reform. Indeed, in less than 10 days Mexico’s Congress and States passed the Energy Reform and rendered the Energy Reform a reality. After Congressional and State approval, the Reform was then signed into law by President Peña Nieto. The Law also published in the Federal Official Gazette on 20 December 2013.

Description: ‘It’s Scotland’s oil.’ This Scottish National Party (SNP) electoral slogan encapsulates the importance of oil in the debate on Scotland’s constitutional future. In contrast therefore, the decision by the SNP-led Scottish Government in 2013 to apparently give up a claim to around 6,000 square miles of territory in the North Sea, encompassing several oilfields, is puzzling. This article contends that any dispute over North Sea boundaries would have resulted in unwelcome legal and diplomatic uncertainties for a putative independent State. The Scottish Government therefore may have taken the pragmatic decision to sacrifice this portion of its territory in favour of stability and certainty.

Description: Legal English is inevitably different to the ordinary use of language but this does not excuse the use of language which is verbose, obscure, repetitive or incorrect. Happily there is a growing trend toward the use of legal language which is plain and intelligible. In this transcript of his recent talk, Lord Justice Lewison considers the evidence for that trend, and also considers the way in which the English Courts have recently approached the interpretation of contracts.

Description: The US ‘shale gas revolution’ has triggered a worldwide search for unconventional gas in different forms on other continents. Asia’s growing demand for energy and need to switch from coal to natural gas has made governments in this region determined to exploit these newly accessible resources, inspired by the US experience. However, in addition to geological differences, the above-ground conditions in Asian countries are quite different from those in the USA. The papers in this Special Issue analyse the investment frameworks and the consequent outlook for unconventional gas production in China, Indonesia and Vietnam. Our paper sets the context for these accounts by identifying some relevant insights from the experience of the USA and summarizes some of the key conclusions from the later papers. A number of common themes emerge from the case studies, for example: the limited capacity of government, the role of the national oil companies and other interested economic actors, complex approval procedures, poor coordination between different government agencies and between different levels of government, access to land, and inadequate infrastructure, as well as the inappropriate nature of the prevailing laws, regulations and contracts designed for the extraction of conventional hydrocarbons. Despite these commonalities, the specific nature of each potential constraint and their relative importance varies between each country and even across an individual country. One challenge arising from the nature of unconventional gas extraction that is common to all countries is the need for effective engagement with society.

Description: China has huge unconventional gas resources and the largest is coal bed methane (CBM). Initial appraisal of CBM resources commenced in the 1990s, the first production sharing contract was signed in 1998 and first commercial production was in 2006. Eight years later, production has only reached 3 Bcm far lower than forecast despite PetroChina and CNOOC championing the development of these resources. Progress has been slow but better technology is being introduced, many of the issues that have delayed development over the last 25 years have been resolved and the government is prepared to offer further incentives to make the sector more attractive and speed up development. CBM production of 16 Bcm by 2015 remains most unlikely, but more projects are getting close to commercial production so we should see steady rather than spectacular growth over the course of the decade.

Description: This article examines the progress made towards achieving material commercial coal bed methane (CBM) production in Indonesia during the period since the publication in 2010 of ‘Coal Bed Methane Development in Indonesia: Golden Opportunity or Impossible Dream?’ (2010 Paper; P Godfrey, Tan Ee and T Hewitt, ‘Coal Bed Methane Development in Indonesia: Golden Opportunity or Impossible Dream?’ (2010) 28(2) JERL 233–64) by the Journal of Energy and Natural Resources Law. Although blessed by favourable geology, and despite some quite extensive exploration activities, Indonesia has not yet seen CBM become a significant contributor to its energy supply mix. This is the case both in relation to domestic gas demand and in terms of contribution to spare capacity in liquefied natural gas export facilities. The Government of Indonesia has continued to use the production sharing contract (PSC) as the centrepiece of its regulation of the CBM sector. Except for the issue of a newish regulation on bidding for unconventional gas acreage, the regulatory regime pertaining to CBM exploration and production (E&P) has remained basically unchanged since 2010. Generally speaking, bureaucratic inertia at central and local levels of Government continues to be an unfortunate characteristic of the administration of the sector. However, at the same time, a lack of suitable specialized drilling equipment together with a lack of commitment by some CBM operators has also played a significant part in disappointing progress overall.

Description: Conventional gas is a key energy source for Vietnam but it may not be sufficient to meet growing demand in the future. Unconventional gas could potentially be part of the solution to meet the shortfall. This article examines Vietnam’s institutional and regulatory context to identify key constraints for the development of unconventional gas. Key players from the Communist Party of Vietnam to the Government agencies and local communities will be analysed to understand their roles and interaction. Other major issues such as gas sales price negotiations, access to land, environmental protection and the model form for petroleum contracts will be also discussed. The article concludes that Vietnam is at the early stage of unconventional gas development and therefore more work and effort are required to bring about adequate human and technical capacities, as well as institutional and regulatory infrastructures to deal with the new resource.

Description: The Chinese authorities have great hopes for the fledgling shale gas industry in China. However, while China is widely acknowledged to have abundant shale gas reserves, it would likely be difficult for China to realize these lofty ambitions, at least in the near future. China has issued encouraging policy statements to support the shale gas industry, as well as announced a number of discrete financial incentives. However, its shale gas industry faces technical challenges as well as a critical lack of detailed regulations regarding the exploration for and the production of shale gas in China. There is also a lack of guidance over the manner in which foreign investments can be made in the Chinese shale gas industry; significantly, the tussle between the ‘production sharing contract’ model and the ‘joint venture model’ still remains to be resolved. There are steps that China can take to address the hitherto lost opportunities to realize its exciting shale gas potential, the most important of which is to put in place appropriate clear and detailed regulations which are administered by a clear regulatory structure.

Description: Some policymakers believe that academic R&D generates insufficient economic benefits. However, they often exclude the long-term and multi-dimensional impacts that are mediated through the activities of companies, students or policymakers. This case study, which is mainly interview-based, traces and characterises such impacts applying the technological innovation systems approach to the case of a physics professor. Multi-dimensional impacts are revealed in the areas of catalysis, biomaterials and research policy. Impacts on the development, social capital and search processes are continuous and cumulative, while impacts on resource mobilisation and legitimation follow upon these. Entrepreneurial experimentation and market formation are impacted in later stages, sometimes with decade-long time lags. The impact is often subtle, deeply intertwined with the action of others, and it unfolds in sequences of impact. Implications are drawn for research policy, emphasising the importance of accounting for indirect impacts in order to understand the full effect of academic R&D.

Description: Despite the potential environmental and economic benefits of carbon capture and storage (CCS), many factors limit its prospects for implementation, including economic feasibility, geologic and legal constraints, risk uncertainties, and public acceptance. This study focuses on the challenge of public acceptance and support by analyzing survey data on publis attitudes toward CCS implementation in the coal-intensive state of Indiana. It was determined that specific information that defined individuals’ general world views can be used to predict support or opposition for CCS implementation. However, additional analysis found that specific attitudes about potential CCS risks and benefits are also significantly correlated with support or opposition to CCS implementation. These variables include: the respondents’ impressions of the potential dangers associated with CCS; attitudes about the potential for CCS implementation to bring jobs to the local economy; and the amount of fear of a CCS facility near their home or community.