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  • Europe  (5)
  • 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis  (4)
  • Wiley-Blackwell  (9)
  • Nature Publishing Group
  • 2010-2014  (9)
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Year
  • 1
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    A smoothed stochastic earthquake rate model considering seismicity and fault moment release for Europe (2014)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-12-15
    Description: We present a time-independent gridded earthquake rate forecast for the European region including Turkey. The spatial component of our model is based on kernel density estimation techniques, which we applied to both past earthquake locations and fault moment release on mapped crustal faults and subduction zone interfaces with assigned slip rates. Our forecast relies on the assumption that the locations of past seismicity is a good guide to future seismicity, and that future large-magnitude events occur more likely in the vicinity of known faults. We show that the optimal weighted sum of the corresponding two spatial densities depends on the magnitude range considered. The kernel bandwidths and density weighting function are optimized using retrospective likelihood-based forecast experiments. We computed earthquake activity rates (a- and b-value) of the truncated Gutenberg–Richter distribution separately for crustal and subduction seismicity based on a maximum likelihood approach that considers the spatial and temporal completeness history of the catalogue. The final annual rate of our forecast is purely driven by the maximum likelihood fit of activity rates to the catalogue data, whereas its spatial component incorporates contributions from both earthquake and fault moment-rate densities. Our model constitutes one branch of the earthquake source model logic tree of the 2013 European seismic hazard model released by the EU-FP7 project ‘Seismic HAzard haRmonization in Europe’ (SHARE) and contributes to the assessment of epistemic uncertainties in earthquake activity rates. We performed retrospective and pseudo-prospective likelihood consistency tests to underline the reliability of our model and SHARE’s area source model (ASM) using the testing algorithms applied in the collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability (CSEP). We comparatively tested our model’s forecasting skill against the ASM and find a statistically significant better performance for testing periods of 10–20 yr. The testing results suggest that our model is a viable candidate model to serve for long-term forecasting on timescales of years to decades for the European region.
    Description: EC-Research FP7-projects, SHARE, under grant agreement No. 226967 and NERA, under grant agreement No. 262330
    Description: Published
    Description: 1159-1172
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Probabilistic forecasting ; Statistical seismology ; Europe ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
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    A continuous palaeosecular variation record of the last four millennia from the Augusta Bay (Sicily, Italy) (2011)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-07
    Description: We present a high-resolution palaeomagnetic and rock magnetic study of two cores, MS06 and MS06-SW (6.7 and 1.1 m long, respectively), collected at 72 m below sea level in the Augusta Bay shelf (Eastern Sicily, Ionian Sea, Italy) about 2.3 kmfrom the coastline. Geophysical surveying carried out in the sampling area highlighted the presence of a homogeneous sedimentary sequence that most likely was deposited after the Last Glacial Maximum and was not affected by anthropogenic disturbances. The two cores penetrated a monotonous mud sedimentary sequence, interrupted at ∼3 m depth by a 3–4-cm-thick volcanic sandy layer that is correlated with the tephra fallout deposit produced by the 122 BC plinian eruption of Mt Etna. This tephra, along with radiocarbon dating of nine marine shells and with radioactive tracers for the uppermost 0.3 m (210Pb and 137Cs), provide the chronological constraints for the stratigraphic sequence that resulted younger than 4500 yr BP. Palaeomagnetic and rock magnetic data show that the sample sequence is magnetically homogeneous. A single peak of high magnetic mineral concentration is present and corresponds to the volcanic sandy layer. Palaeomagnetic data allowed the identification of a well-defined characteristic remanent magnetization that provides a high-resolution record of palaeosecular variation (PSV) at the sampling site. The reconstructed PSV curve is in good agreement with the available regional reference PSV curves and with the prediction from recent PSV modelling for Europe. The palaeomagnetic data obtained in this study on the one hand support and refine the age model for the cores, derived from other independent constraints, and on the other hand provide an original high-resolution PSV curve that can serve as a reference for the central Mediterranean over the last 4 ka.
    Description: Published
    Description: 191 - 202
    Description: 2.2. Laboratorio di paleomagnetismo
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Palaeointensity ; Palaeomagnetic secular variation ; Marine magnetics and palaeomagnetics ; Europe ; 04. Solid Earth::04.05. Geomagnetism::04.05.02. Geomagnetic field variations and reversals ; 04. Solid Earth::04.05. Geomagnetism::04.05.06. Paleomagnetism
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
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    A continuous palaeosecular variation record of the last four millennia from the Augusta Bay (Sicily, Italy) (2010)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We present a high-resolution palaeomagnetic and rock magnetic study of two cores, MS06 and MS06-SW (6.7 and 1.1 m long, respectively), collected at 72 m below sea level in the Augusta Bay shelf (Eastern Sicily, Ionian Sea, Italy) about 2.3 kmfrom the coastline. Geophysical surveying carried out in the sampling area highlighted the presence of a homogeneous sedimentary sequence that most likely was deposited after the Last Glacial Maximum and was not affected by anthropogenic disturbances. The two cores penetrated a monotonous mud sedimentary sequence, interrupted at ∼3 m depth by a 3–4-cm-thick volcanic sandy layer that is correlated with the tephra fallout deposit produced by the 122 BC plinian eruption of Mt Etna. This tephra, along with radiocarbon dating of nine marine shells and with radioactive tracers for the uppermost 0.3 m (210Pb and 137Cs), provide the chronological constraints for the stratigraphic sequence that resulted younger than 4500 yr BP. Palaeomagnetic and rock magnetic data show that the sample sequence is magnetically homogeneous. A single peak of high magnetic mineral concentration is present and corresponds to the volcanic sandy layer. Palaeomagnetic data allowed the identification of a well-defined characteristic remanent magnetization that provides a high-resolution record of palaeosecular variation (PSV) at the sampling site. The reconstructed PSV curve is in good agreement with the available regional reference PSV curves and with the prediction from recent PSV modelling for Europe. The palaeomagnetic data obtained in this study on the one hand support and refine the age model for the cores, derived from other independent constraints, and on the other hand provide an original high-resolution PSV curve that can serve as a reference for the central Mediterranean over the last 4 ka.
    Description: In press
    Description: 2.2. Laboratorio di paleomagnetismo
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Palaeomagnetic secular variation ; Palaeointensity ; Marine magnetics and palaeomagnetics ; Europe ; 04. Solid Earth::04.05. Geomagnetism::04.05.02. Geomagnetic field variations and reversals ; 04. Solid Earth::04.05. Geomagnetism::04.05.06. Paleomagnetism
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
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    Some insights on the occurrence of recent volcanic eruptions of Mount Etna volcano (Sicily, Italy) (2012)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-03
    Description: In the first part of this work, we make use of two non-parametric statistical pattern recognition algorithms and a multiple regression analysis to analyse seismic clusters occur ring around Mount Etna, Italy. The aim is to determine if the onset of flank eruptions at Mount Etna is linked to variations in the regional seismicity at a timescale of few weeks. From the analysis, we find that the discrimination between clusters preceding flank eruptions and clusters not related in time to flank activity is mainly linked to the volume output of the previous flank eruption, in some cases together with the time elapsed from its end. Instead, we do not find any difference in the seismicity features characterizing different types of clusters, except for a very small contribution of the number of seismic events in the clusters. This result does not confirm the existence, suggested in the past, of a direct link between the regional state of stress at a timescale of few weeks and the occurrence of flank eruptions on Mount Etna volcano. On the contrary, the result suggests that a prominent role in the flank eruption occur rence is played by the re-charging of the feeding system. In the second part of this study we analyse the relationship between the magma volume erupted in an eruption and the interevent time following it, finding that a ‘time-predictable model’ satisfactorily describes the occurrence of eruptions at Mount Etna in the last decades. The latter analysis is car ried out both on the flank eruption catalogue only, and on the complete catalogue of flank and summit eruptions, with comparable results.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1203–1218
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: flank eruptions ; Mount Etna volcano ; regional tectonic stress ; statistical pattern recognition ; time predictability ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 5
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    High-resolution shallow seismic tomography of a hydrothermal area: application to the Solfatara, Pozzuoli (2012)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The Solfatara is one of the major volcanoes of the Phlegrean Fields (Campi Flegrei) volcanic complex, and it is located in a densely populated area a few kilometres west of the city of Naples. It is an active resurgent caldera that has been characterized by a rich history of surface–ground deformation and soil diffuse degassing and fumarolic emissions, which are indications of the top of a hydrothermal plume. A seismic survey was completed in May 2009 for the characterization of the main subsurface features of the Solfatara. Using the complete data set, we have carried out surface wave inversion with high spatial resolution. A classical minimization of a least-squares objective function was first computed to retrieve the dispersion curves of the surface waves. Then, the fitting procedure between the data and a three-sedimentlayer forward model was carried out (to a depth of 7 m), using an improved version of the neighbourhood algorithm. The inversion results indicate a NE-SW fault, which is not visible at the surface. This was confirmed by a temperature survey conducted in 2010. A passive seismic experiment localized the ambient noise sources that correlate well with the areas of high CO2 flux and high soil temperatures. Finally, considering that the intrinsic attenuation is proportional to the frequency, a centroid analysis provides an overview of the attenuation of the seismic waves, which is closely linked to the petrophysical properties of the rock. These different approaches that merge complete active and passive seismic data with soil temperature and CO2 flux maps confirm the presence of the hydrothermal system plume. Some properties of the top of the plume are indicated and localized.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1725–1733
    Description: 1.2. TTC - Sorveglianza geochimica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: 2.4. TTC - Laboratori di geochimica dei fluidi
    Description: 4.5. Studi sul degassamento naturale e sui gas petroliferi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Inverse theory ; Tomography ; Hydrothermal systems ; Europe ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.02. Hydrology::03.02.04. Measurements and monitoring ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.04. Chemical and biological::03.04.05. Gases ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.11. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.12. Fluid Geochemistry
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 6
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    Are the source models of the M7.1 1908 Messina Straits earthquake reliable? Insights from a novel inversion and a sensitivity analysis of levelling data (2013)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: For decades, many authors have attempted to define the location, geometry and kinematics of the causative fault for the 1908 December 28, M 7.1 earthquake that struck the Messina Straits between Sicily and Calabria (southern Italy). The coseismic displacement caused a predominant downwarping of the Straits and small land uplift away from it, which were documented by levelling surveys performed 1 yr before and immediately after the earthquake. Most of the source models based on inversion of levelling data suggested that the earthquake was caused by a low angle, east-dipping blind normal fault, whose upper projection intersects the Earth surface on the Sicilian (west) side of the Messina Straits.An alternative interpretation holds that the causative fault is one of the high-angle, west-dipping faults located in southern Calabria, on the eastern side of the Straits, and may in large part coincide with the mapped Armo Fault. Here, we critically review the levelling data with the aim of defining both their usefulness and limits in modelling the seismogenic fault. We demonstrate that the levelling data alone are not capable of discriminating between the two oppositely dipping fault models, and thus their role as a keystone for modellers is untenable. However, new morphotectonic and geodetic data indicate that the Armo Fault has very recent activity and is accumulating strain. The surface observations, together with appraisal ofmacroseismic intensity distribution, available seismic tomography and marine geophysical evidence, lends credit to the hypothesis that the Armo and possibly the S. Eufemia faults are part of a major crustal structure that slipped during the 1908 earthquake.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1025-1041
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Earthquake source ; Messina Straits ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.03. Inverse methods ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 7
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    A comparison of moment magnitude estimates for the European–Mediterranean and Italian regions (2013)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: With the goal of constructing a homogeneous data set of moment magnitudes (Mw) to be used for seismic hazard assessment, we compared Mw estimates from moment tensor catalogues available online. We found an apparent scaling disagreement between Mw estimates from the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) of the US Geological Survey and from the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) project. We suspect that this is the effect of an underestimation ofMw 〉 7.0 (M0 〉 4.0 × 1019 Nm) computed by NEIC owing to the limitations of their computational approach. We also found an apparent scaling disagreement between GCMT and two regional moment tensor catalogues provided by the ‘Eidgen¨ossische Technische Hochschule Z¨urich’ (ETHZ) and by the European–Mediterranean Regional Centroid Moment Tensor (RCMT) project of the Italian ‘Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia’ (INGV). This is probably the effect of the overestimation of Mw 〈 5.5 (M0 〈 2.2 × 1017 Nm), up to year 2002, and of Mw 〈 5.0 (M0 〈 4.0 × 1016 Nm), since year 2003, owing to the physical limitations of the standard CMT inversion method used by GCMT for the earthquakes of relatively low magnitude. If the discrepant data are excluded from the comparisons, the scaling disagreements become insignificant in all cases. We observed instead small absolute offsets (≤0.1 units) for NEIC and ETHZ catalogues with respect to GCMT whereas there is an almost perfect correspondence between RCMT and GCMT. Finally, we found a clear underestimation of about 0.2 units of Mw magnitudes computed at the INGV using the time-domain moment tensor (TDMT) method with respect to those reported by GCMT and RCMT. According to our results, we suggest appropriate offset corrections to be applied to Mw estimates from NEIC, ETHZ and TDMT catalogues before merging their data with GCMT and RCMT catalogues. We suggest as well to discard the probably discrepant data from NEIC and GCMT if other Mw estimates from different sources are available for the same earthquakes. We also estimate approximately the average uncertainty of individual Mw estimates to be about 0.07 magnitude units for the GCMT, NEIC, RCMT and ETHZ catalogues and about 0.13 for the TDMT catalogue.
    Description: European Union research project SHARE (Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe), within the ambit of Task 3.1 ‘European Earthquake Database’
    Description: Published
    Description: 1733-1745
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Earthquake source observations; Statistical seismology ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 8
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    Crustal heterogeneity highlighted by spatial b-value map in theWellington region of New Zealand (2010)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We map the b-value in the subduction zone of theWellington region, NewZealand, using a high quality earthquake catalogue relocated with a 3-D seismic velocity model, consisting of 50 314 events that occurred between 1990 and 2005. In order to investigate heterogeneity in the crust of the overlying plate and in the upper plane of the Wadati–Benioff Zone (WBZ), we analyse a series of cross-sections perpendicular to the strike of the subduction zone. We calculate the b-values selecting events with magnitude of completeness ≥2.4 and depth ≤65 km and projecting the seismicity within 20 km on each side of the cross-sectional planes. We observe areas of high b-value (∼1.7) near the plate interface and regions of low b-value anomalies are detected both in the WBZ in the northwest region below 40 km depth and in the overlying plate in the northern South Island at 10 km depth. The anomalies are statistically significant based on Utsu’s p-test and the bootstrap method and are not data processing method or parameter dependent. We compare the b-value distribution with previously determined 3-D distributions of Vp, Vp/Vs andQp from seismic tomography. This comparison suggests that material inhomogeneity, caused by fluid filled cracks resulting from dehydration of the subducted slab and subducted sediments, is the predominant cause of b-value variation in the shallow part of this subduction zone. Our observations are consistent with a previously proposed conceptual model that fluid distribution in the shallow part of this subduction zone is controlled by the permeability of geological terranes in the overlying plate.
    Description: Published
    Description: 451-460
    Description: 3.3. Geodinamica e struttura dell'interno della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Seismic attenuation ; Seismic tomography ; Statistical seismology ; Subduction zone processes ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.07. Tomography and anisotropy ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 9
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    Crustal structure and seismotectonics of central Sicily (southern Italy): new constraints from instrumental seismicity (2012)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-09
    Description: In this paper, we propose a new model of the crustal structure and seismotectonics for central Sicily (southern Italy) through the analysis of the depth distribution and kinematics of the instrumental seismicity, occurring during the period from 1983 to 2010, and its comparison with individual geological structures that may be active in the area. The analysed data set consists of 392 earthquakes with local magnitudes ranging from 1.0 to 4.7. We defined a new, detailed 1-D velocity model to relocate the earthquakes that occurred in central Sicily, and we calculated a Moho depth of 37 km and a mean VP/VS ratio of 1.73. The relocated seismic events are clustered mainly in the area north of Caltanissetta (e.g. Mainland Sicily) and in the northeastern sector (Madonie Mountains) of the study area; only minor and greatly dispersed seismicity is located in the western sector, near Belice, and along the southern coast, between Gela and Sciacca. The relocated hypocentral distribution depicts a bimodal pattern: 50 per cent of the events occur within the upper crust at depths less than ~16 km, 40 per cent of the events occur within the middle and depth crust, at depths between 16 and 32 km, and the remaining 10 per cent occur at subcrustal depths. The energy release pattern shows a similar depth distribution. On the basis of the kinematic analysis of 38 newly computed focal plane solutions, two major geographically distinct seismotectonic domains are distinguished: the Madonie Mountain domain, with prevalent extensional and extensional-oblique kinematics associated with upper crust Late Pliocene–Quaternary faulting, and the Mainland Sicily domain, with prevalent compressional and compressional-oblique kinematics associated with thrust faulting, at mid to deep crust depth, along the north-dipping Sicilian Basal Thrust (SBT). The stress inversion of the Mainland Sicily focal solutions integrated with neighbouring mechanisms available in the literature highlights a regional homogeneous compressional tensor, with a subhorizontal NNW–SSE-striking σ1 axis. In addition, on the basis of geodetic data, the Mainland Sicily domain may be attributed to the SSE-ward thrusting of the Mainland Sicily block along the SBT plane. Seismogenic shearing along the SBT at mid-crustal depths was responsible for the unexpected Belice 1968 earthquake (Mw 6.1), with evident implications in terms of hazard assessment.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1237-2252
    Description: 1.1. TTC - Monitoraggio sismico del territorio nazionale
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 3.3. Geodinamica e struttura dell'interno della Terra
    Description: 5.2. TTC - Banche dati di sismologia strumentale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Seismicity and tectonics ; Continental tectonics: compressional ; Dynamics: seismotectonics ; Crustal structure ; Europe ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.02. Geodynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.04. Plate boundaries, motion, and tectonics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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