ALBERT

Description: In this study, Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca and Ba/Ca ratios in a Lateglacial to Holocene stalagmite (CC26) from Corchia Cave (central Italy) are compared with stable isotope data to define palaeohydrological changes. For most of the record, the trace element ratios show small absolute variability but similar patterns, which are also consistent with stable isotope variations. Higher trace element-to-calcium values are interpreted as responses to decreasing moisture, inducing changes in the residence time of percolation, producing prior calcite precipitation and/or variations in the hydrological routing. Statistically meaningful levels of covariability were determined using anomalies of Mg/Ca, d18O and d13C. Combining these three time series into a single ‘palaeomoisture-trend’ parameter, we highlight several events of reduced moisture (ca. 8.9–8.4, 6.2, 4.2, 3.1 and 2.0 ka), a humid period between ca. 7.9 and 8.3 ka and other shorter-term wet events at ca. 5.8, 5.3 and 3.7 ka. Most of these events can be correlated with climate changes inferred from other regional studies. For both extremities of the record (i.e. before ca. 12.4 ka and after ca. 0.5 ka) Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca are anti-correlated and show the greatest amplitude of values, a likely explanation for which involves aragonite and/or gypsum precipitation (the latter derived from pyrite oxidation) above the CC26 drip point.

Description: Published

Description: 381–392

Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: This study is focused on the (micro)biogeochemical features of two close geothermal sites (FAV1 and FAV2), both selected at the main exhalative area of Pantelleria Island, Italy. A previous biogeochemical survey revealed high CH4 consumption and the presence of a diverse community of methanotrophs at FAV2 site, whereas the close site FAV1 was apparently devoid of methanotrophs and recorded no CH4 consumption. Next-Generation Sequencing (NGS) techniques were applied to describe the bacterial and archaeal communities which have been linked to the physicochemical conditions and the geothermal sources of energy available at the two sites. Both sites are dominated by Bacteria and host a negligible component of ammonia-oxidizing Archaea (phylum Thaumarchaeota). The FAV2 bacterial community is characterized by an extraordinary diversity of methanotrophs, with 40% of the sequences assigned to Methylocaldum, Methylobacter (Gammaproteobacteria) and Bejerickia (Alphaproteobacteria); conversely, a community of thermo-acidophilic chemolithotrophs (Acidithiobacillus, Nitrosococcus) or putative chemolithotrophs (Ktedonobacter) dominates the FAV1 community, in the absence of methanotrophs. Since physical andchemical factors of FAV1, such as temperature and pH, cannot be considered limiting for methanotrophy, it is hypothesized that the main limiting factor for methanotrophs could be high NH4+ concentration. At the same time, abundant availability of NH4+ and other high energy electron donors and acceptors determined by the hydrothermal flux in this site create more energetically favourable conditions for chemolithotrophs that outcompete methanotrophs in non-nitrogen-limited soils.

Description: Published

Description: 150–162

Description: 4V. Vulcani e ambiente

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: This article presents an integrated approach for the probabilistic systemic risk analysis of a road network considering spatial seismic hazard with correlation of ground motion intensities, vulnerability of the network components, and the effect of interactions within the network, as well as, between roadway components and built environment to the network functionality. The system performance is evaluated at the system level through a global connectivity performance indicator, which depends on both physical damages to its components and induced functionality losses due to interactions with other systems. An object-oriented modeling paradigm is used, where the complex problem of several interacting systems is decomposed in a number of interacting objects, accounting for intra- and interdependencies between and within systems. Each system is specified with its components, solving algorithms, performance indicators and interactions with other systems. The proposed approach is implemented for the analysis of the road network in the city of Thessaloniki (Greece) to demonstrate its applicability. In particular, the risk for the road network in the area is calculated, specifically focusing on the short-term impact of seismic events (just after the earthquake). The potential of road blockages due to collapses of adjacent buildings and overpass bridges is analyzed, trying to individuate possible criticalities related to specific components/subsystems. The application can be extended based on the proposed approach, to account for other interactions such as failure of pipelines beneath the road segments, collapse of adjacent electric poles, or malfunction of lighting and signaling systems due to damage in the electric power network.

Description: Published

Description: 524–540

Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: We present the analysis of rotational and translational ground motions from earthquakes recorded during October–November 2016, in association with the Central Italy seismic sequence. We use co-located measurements of the vertical ground rotation rate from a large ring laser gyroscope and the three components of ground velocity from a broad-band seismometer. Both instruments are positioned in a deep underground environment, within the Gran Sasso National Laboratories of the Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare. We collected dozens of events spanning the 3.5–5.9 magnitude range and epicentral distances between 30 and 70 km. This data set constitutes an unprecedented observation of the vertical rotational motions associated with an intense seismic sequence at local distance. Under the plane-wave approximation we process the data set in order to get an experimental estimation of the events backazimuth. Peak values of rotation rate (PRR) and horizontal acceleration (PGA) are markedly correlated, according to a scaling constant which is consistent with previous measurements from different earthquake sequences. We used a prediction model in use for Italy to calculate the expected PGA at the recording site, obtaining consequently predictions for PRR. Within the modelling uncertainties, predicted rotations are consistent with the observed ones, suggesting the possibility of establishing specific attenuation models for ground rotations, like the scaling of peak velocity and peak acceleration in empirical ground-motion prediction relationships. In a second step, after identifying the direction of the incoming wavefield, we extract phase-velocity data using the spectral ratio of the translational and rotational components. This analysis is performed over time windows associated with the P-coda, S-coda and Lg phase. Results are consistent with independent estimates of shear wave velocities in the shallow crust of the Central Apennines

Description: Published

Description: 705-715

Description: 4T. Sismicità dell'Italia

Description: JCR Journal

Description: The knowledge of the local soil structure is important for the assessment of seismic hazards. A widespread, but time-consuming technique to retrieve the parameters of the local underground is the drilling of boreholes. Another way to obtain the shear wave velocity profile at a given location is the inversion of surface wave dispersion curves. To ensure a good resolution for both superficial and deeper layers, the used dispersion curves need to cover a wide frequency range. This wide frequency range can be obtained using several arrays of seismic sensors or a single array comprising a large number of sensors. Consequently, these measurements are time-consuming. A simpler alternative is provided by the use of the ellipticity of Rayleigh waves. The frequency dependence of the ellipticity is tightly linked to the shear wave velocity profile. Furthermore, it can be measured using a single seismic sensor. As soil structures obtained by scaling of a given model exhibit the same ellipticity curve, any inversion of the ellipticity curve alone will be ambiguous. Therefore, additional measurements which fix the absolute value of the shear wave velocity profile at some points have to be included in the inversion process. Small-scale spatial autocorrelation measurements or MASW measurements can provide the needed data. Using a theoretical soil structure, we show which parts of the ellipticity curve have to be included in the inversion process to get a reliable result and which parts can be omitted. Furthermore, the use of autocorrelation or high-frequency dispersion curves will be highlighted. The resulting guidelines for inversions including ellipticity data are then applied to real data measurements collected at 14 different sites during the European NERIES project. It is found that the results are in good agreement with dispersion curve measurements. Furthermore, the method can help in identifying the mode of Rayleigh waves in dispersion curve measurements.

Description: Published

Description: 207-229

Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: Stable isotopes were measured in the carbonate and organic matter of palaeosols in the Somma–Vesuvius area, southern Italy in order to test whether they are suitable proxy records for climatic and ecological changes in this area during the past 18000 yr. The ages of the soils span from ca. 18 to ca. 3 kyr BP. Surprisingly, the Last Glacial to Holocene climate transition was not accompanied by significant change in d18O of pedogenic carbonate. This could be explained by changes in evaporation rate and in isotope fractionation between water and precipitated carbonate with temperature, which counterbalanced the expected change in isotope composition of meteoric water. Because of the rise in temperature and humidity and the progressive increase in tree cover during the Holocene, the Holocene soil carbonates closely reflect the isotopic composition of meteoric water. A cooling of about 2°C after the Avellino eruption (3.8 ka) accounts for a sudden decrease of about 1‰ in d18O of pedogenic carbonate recorded after this eruption. The d13C values of organic matter and pedogenic carbonate covary, indicating an effective isotope equilibrium between the organic matter, as the source of CO2, and the pedogenic carbonate. Carbon isotopes suggest prevailing C3 vegetation and negligible mixing with volcanogenic or atmospheric CO2.

Description: Published

Description: 813-824

Description: 1V. Storia e struttura dei sistemi vulcanici

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: Operative seismic aftershock risk forecasting can be particularly useful for rapid decision-making in the presence of an ongoing sequence. In such a context, limit state first-excursion probabilities (risk) for the forecasting interval (a day) can represent the potential for progressive state of damage in a structure. This work lays out a performance-based framework for adaptive aftershock risk assessment in the immediate post-mainshock environment. A time-dependent structural performance variable is adopted in order to measure the cumulative damage in a structure. A set of event-dependent fragility curves as a function of the first-mode spectral acceleration for a prescribed limit state is calculated by employing back-to-back non- linear dynamic analyses. An epidemic-type aftershock sequence model is employed for estimating the spatio-temporal evolution of aftershocks. The event-dependent fragility curves for a given limit state are then integrated together with the probability distribution of aftershock spectral acceleration based on the epidemic-type aftershock sequence aftershock hazard. The daily probability of limit state first-excursion is finally calculated as a weighted combination of the sequence of limit state probabilities conditioned on the num- ber of aftershocks. As a numerical example, daily aftershock risk is calculated for the L’Aquila 2009 aftershock sequence (central Italy). A representative three-story reinforced concrete frame with infill panels, which has cyclic strength and stiffness degradation, is used in order to evaluate the progressive damage. It is observed that the proposed framework leads to a sound forecasting of limit state first-excursion in the structure for two limit states of significant damage and near collapse. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Description: Published

Description: 2179–2197

Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio

Description: JCR Journal

Description: reserved

Description: Predicting future thaw slump activity requires a sound understanding of the atmospheric drivers and geomorphic controls on mass wasting across a range of time scales. On sub-seasonal time scales, sparse measurements indicate that mass wasting at active slumps is often limited by the energy available for melting ground ice, but other factors such as rainfall or the formation of an insulating veneer may also be relevant. To study the sub-seasonal drivers, we derive topographic changes from single-pass radar interferometric data acquired by the TanDEM-X satellite (12 m resolution). The high vertical precision (around 30 cm), frequent observations (11 days) and large coverage (5000 km2) allow us to track volume losses as drivers such as the available energy change during summer in two study regions. We find that thaw slumps in the Tuktoyaktuk coastlands, Canada, are not energy limited in June, as they undergo limited mass wasting (height loss of around 0 cm/day) despite the ample available energy, indicating the widespread presence of an insulating snow or debris veneer. Later in summer, height losses generally increase (around 3 cm/day), but they do so in distinct ways. For many slumps, mass wasting tracks the available energy, a temporal pattern that is also observed at coastal yedoma cliffs on the Bykovsky Peninsula, Russia. However, the other two common temporal trajectories are asynchronous with the available energy, as they track strong precipitation events or show a sudden speed-up in late August, respectively. The observed temporal patterns are poorly related to slump characteristics like the slump area. The contrasting temporal behaviour of nearby thaw slumps highlights the importance of complex local and temporally varying controls on mass wasting.

Description: A suite of oxygenated volatile organic compounds (OVOCs – acetaldehyde, acetone, propanal, butanal and butanone) were measured concurrently in the surface water and atmosphere of the South China Sea and Sulu Sea in November 2011. A strong correlation was observed between all OVOC concentrations in the surface seawater along the entire cruise track, except for acetaldehyde, suggesting similar sources and sinks in the surface ocean. Additionally, several phytoplankton groups, such as haptophytes or pelagophytes, were also correlated to all OVOCs indicating that phytoplankton may be an important source for marine OVOCs in the South China and Sulu Seas. Humic and protein like fluorescent dissolved organic matter (FDOM) components seemed to be additional precursors for butanone and acetaldehyde. The atmospheric OVOC mixing ratios were relative high compared with literature values, suggesting the coastal region of North Borneo as a local hot spot for atmospheric OVOCs. The flux of atmospheric OVOCs was largely into the ocean for all 5 gases, with a few important exceptions near the coast of Borneo. The calculated amount of OVOCs entrained into the ocean seemed to be an important source of OVOCs to the surface ocean. When the fluxes were out of the ocean, marine OVOCs were found to be enough to control the local measured OVOC distribution in the atmosphere. Based on our model calculations, at least 0.4 ppb of marine derived acetone and butanone can reach the upper troposphere, where they may have an important influence on hydrogen oxide radical formation over the western Pacific Ocean.

Description: The Extrapolar SWIFT model is a fast ozone chemistry scheme for interactive calculation of the extrapolar stratospheric ozone layer in coupled general circulation models (GCMs). In contrast to the widely used prescribed ozone, the SWIFT ozone layer interacts with the model dynamics and can respond to atmospheric variability or climatological trends. The Extrapolar SWIFT model employs a repro-modelling approach, where algebraic functions are used to approximate the numerical output of a full stratospheric chemistry and transport model (ATLAS). The full model solves a coupled chemical differential equations system with 55 initial and boundary conditions (mixing ratio of various chemical species and atmospheric parameters). Hence the rate of change of ozone over 24  h is a function of 55 variables. Using covariances between these variables, we can find linear combinations in order to reduce the parameter space to the following nine basic variables: latitude, pressure altitude, temperature, local ozone column, mixing ratio of ozone and of the ozone depleting families (Cly, Bry, NOy and HOy). We will show that these 9 variables are sufficient to characterize the rate of change of ozone. An automated procedure fits a polynomial function of fourth degree to the rate of change of ozone obtained from several simulations with the ATLAS model. One polynomial function is determined per month which yields the rate of change of ozone over 24 h. A key aspect for the robustness of the Extrapolar SWIFT model is to include a wide range of stratospheric variability in the numerical output of the ATLAS model, also covering atmospheric states that will occur in a future climate (e.g. temperature and meridional circulation changes or reduction of stratospheric chlorine loading). For validation purposes, the Extrapolar SWIFT model has been integrated into the ATLAS model replacing the full stratospheric chemistry scheme. Simulations with SWIFT in ATLAS have proven that the systematic error is small and does not accumulate during the course of a simulation. In the context of a 10 year simulation, the ozone layer, simulated by SWIFT, shows a stable annual cycle, with inter-annual variations comparable to the ATLAS model. The application of Extrapolar SWIFT requires the evaluation of polynomial functions with 30–100 terms. Nowadays, computers can calculate such polynomial functions at thousands of model grid points in seconds. SWIFT provides the desired numerical efficiency and computes the ozone layer 104 times faster than the chemistry scheme in the ATLAS CTM.

Description: Ice retreat in the eastern Eurasian Arctic is a consequence of atmospheric and oceanic processes and regional feedback mechanisms acting on the ice cover, both in winter and summer. A correct representation of these processes in numerical models is important, since it will improve predictions of sea ice anomalies along the Northeast Passage and beyond. In this study, we highlight the importance of winter ice dynamics for local summer sea ice anomalies in thickness, volume and extent. By means of airborne sea ice thickness surveys made over pack ice areas in the south-eastern Laptev Sea, we show that years of offshore-directed sea ice transport have a thinning effect on the late-winter sea ice cover. To confirm the preconditioning effect of enhanced offshore advection in late winter on the summer sea ice cover, we perform a sensitivity study using a numerical model. Results verify that the preconditioning effect plays a bigger role for the regional ice extent. Furthermore, they indicate an increase in volume export from the Laptev Sea as a consequence of enhanced offshore advection, which has far-reaching consequences for the entire Arctic sea ice mass balance. Moreover we show that ice dynamics in winter not only preconditions local summer ice extent, but also accelerate fast-ice decay.

Description: We use a comprehensive suite of partially laminated high-resolution sediment cores from the Bering Sea, covering a depth transect from 1100 m to 2700 m to study deglacial surface ocean warming patterns, associated changes in biological productivity, oxygen minimum zone dynamics and continent-ocean links through Yukon river runoff. We apply a combination of planktic and benthic isotopes, x-ray fluorescence (XRF)-derived ele- mental ratios and a multi-proxy assessment of changes in upper ocean temperatures. Severe oxygen depletions occurred during the Bølling/Allerød (B/A) and early Holocene, which is in accordance with other locations in the North Pacific, especially the Alaska margin. Detailed analysis of the timing of lamination occurrence between the different sediment cores revealed that the onset of severe anoxia at the beginning of the B/A and early Holocene is a near-synchronous event, while the disappearance of laminations is a diachronic process. The deglacial Oxygen Minimum Zone(OMZ) strengthening is mainly driven by increased export production, visible in XRF-derived elemental ratios, and corresponding high accumulation rates of biogenic components. The export production in turn is a response to rising sea surface temperatures, decreased sea ice cover and increased thermal stratification, while a major nutrient source was the eastern continental shelf, which was flooded during the deglacial global sea level rise. It is discussed controversially whether oxygenation variations in the deglacial subarctic Pacific were coupled to changes in mid-depth water chemistry, or rather a response to physical processes like deep-intermediate ocean or mixed layer warming, or stratification changes. However, knowledge of the driving forcing mechanism for OMZ strengthening is of particular importance, as these are tightly coupled to the regional marine carbon budget, e.g. via the strength and efficiency of the biological pump. Here, our laminated sediments provided the opportunity to study ocean dynamics in exceptional detail, possible on decadal to annual timescales. Due to the correlation patterns of our records to the NGRIP oxygen isotope record through layer counts we presume that (i) the presence of laminations is tightly coupled to submillennial, short-term warm phases, especially during the Bølling-Allerød (B/A), (ii) that the laminations represent annual layered sediments (varves). The latter point in conjunction with our geochemical proxies strongly supports an atmospheric teleconnection between SE Asia, the North Atlantic and the North Pacific, with observed changes in mid-depth ocean dynamics occurring on fast, nearly decadal timescales. Thus, the Bering Sea OMZ is a highly sensitive system reacting almost instantaneously to small temperature changes and therefore has the potential to influence the global carbon budget on short timescales, in particular during episodes of rapidly warming climate.

Description: The genus Alexandrium (Halim) is perhaps the most intensively studied among toxic marine dinoflagellates. This is largely attributable to the devastating consequences of toxigenic blooms of this genus, with human poisonings from contaminated seafood, primarily from shellfish and more rarely from finfish; socio–economic losses to the aquaculture and fisheries industries; marine faunal mortalities; and food web disruptions common in coastal waters throughout the world. Members of this genus are globally distributed from the Arctic to the tropics, and in both hemispheres from sub–polar through temperate to sub–tropical to tropicalwaters. At least four distinct groups of marine phycotoxins are associated with various Alexandrium species, along with poorly characterized bioactive compounds (allelochemicals) that may affect species interactions among the plankton. According to the most recent iteration of the IOC–UNESCO reference list of toxic microalgae, there are now more than 30 recognized morphological species of Alexandrium, posing a daunting challenge for risk assessment and accurate identification in toxic phytoplankton monitoring programs.

Description: The aim of the presented study was to investigate the impact on the radiation budget of a biomass-burning plume, transported from Alaska to the High Arctic region of Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, in early July 2015. Since the mean aerosol optical depth increased by the factor of 10 above the average summer background values, this large aerosol load event is considered particularly exceptional in the last 25 years. In situ data with hygroscopic growth equations, as well as remote sensing measurements as inputs to radiative transfer models, were used, in order to estimate biases associated with (i) hygroscopicity, (ii) variability of single-scattering albedo profiles, and (iii) plane-parallel closure of the modelled atmosphere. A chemical weather model with satellite-derived biomass-burning emissions was applied to interpret the transport and transformation pathways. The provided MODTRAN radiative transfer model (RTM) simulations for the smoke event (14:00 9 July–11:30 11 July) resulted in a mean aerosol direct radiative forcing at the levels of −78.9 and −47.0 W m ^-2 at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere, respectively, for the mean value of aerosol optical depth equal to 0.64 at 550 nm. This corresponded to the average clear-sky direct radiative forcing of −43.3 W/m ^2, estimated by radiometer and model simulations at the surface. Ultimately, uncertainty associated with the plane-parallel atmosphere approximation altered results by about 2 W m^−2. Furthermore, model-derived aerosol direct radiative forcing efficiency reached on average −126 W m^−2/τ550 and −71 W^m−2/τ550 at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere, respectively. The heating rate, estimated at up to 1.8 K day^−1 inside the biomass-burning plume, implied vertical mixing with turbulent kinetic energy of 0.3 m^2s^−2

Description: A new 21.3m firn core was drilled in 2015 at a coastal Antarctic high-accumulation site in Adélie Land (66.78◦ S; 139.56◦ E, 602 m a.s.l.), named Terre Adélie 192A (TA192A). The mean isotopic values (−19.3 ‰ ± 3.1 ‰ for δ18O and 5.4 ‰±2.2 ‰ for deuterium excess) are consistent with other coastal Antarctic values. No significant isotope–temperature relationship can be evidenced at any timescale. This rules out a simple interpretation in terms of local temperature. An observed asymmetry in the δ18O seasonal cycle may be explained by the precipitation of air masses coming from the eastern and western sectors in autumn and winter, recorded in the d-excess signal showing outstanding values in austral spring versus autumn. Significant positive trends are observed in the annual d-excess record and local sea ice extent (135–145◦ E) over the period 1998–2014. However, process studies focusing on resulting isotopic compositions and particularly the deuterium excess–δ18O relationship, evidenced as a potential fingerprint of moisture origins, as well as the collection of more isotopic measurements in Adélie Land are needed for an accurate interpretation of our signals.

Description: The timing and intensity of snowmelt processes on sea ice are key drivers determining the seasonal sea-ice energy and mass budgets. In the Arctic, satellite passive microwave and radar observations have revealed a trend towards an earlier snowmelt onset during the last decades, which is an important aspect of Arctic amplification and sea ice decline. Around Antarctica, snowmelt on perennial ice is weak and very different than in the Arctic, with most snow surviving the summer. Here we compile time series of snowmelt-onset dates on seasonal and perennial Antarctic sea ice from 1992 to 2014/15 using active microwave observations from European Remote Sensing Satellite (ERS-1/2), Quick Scatterometer (QSCAT) and Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) radar scatterometers. We define two snowmelt transition stages: A weak backscatter rise indicating the initial warming and destructive metamorphism of the snowpack (pre-melt), followed by a rapid backscatter rise indicating the onset of thaw-freeze cycles (snowmelt). Results show large interannual variability with an average pre-melt onset date of 29 November and melt onset of 10 December, respectively, on perennial ice, without any significant trends over the study period, consistent with the small trends of Antarctic sea ice extent. There was a latitudinal gradient from early snowmelt onsets in mid-November in the northern Weddell Sea to late (end-December) or even absent snowmelt conditions in the southern Weddell Sea. We show that QSCAT Ku-band (13.4 GHz signal frequency) derived pre-melt and snowmelt onset dates are earlier by 20 and 18 days, respectively, than ERS and ASCAT C-band (5.6 GHz) derived dates. This offset has been considered when constructing the time series. Snowmelt onset dates from passive microwave observations (37 GHz) are later by 14 and 6 days than those from the scatterometers, respectively. Based on these characteristic differences between melt onset dates observed by different microwave wavelengths, we developed a conceptual model which illustrates how the seasonal evolution of snow temperature profiles may affect different microwave bands with different penetration depths. These suggest that future multi-frequency active/passive microwave satellite missions could be used to resolve melt processes throughout the vertical snow column of thick snow on perennial Antarctic sea ice.

Description: Recent observations of near-surface soil temperatures over the circumpolar Arctic show accelerated warming of permafrost-affected soils. The availability of a comprehensive near-surface permafrost and active layer dataset is critical to better understanding climate impacts and to constraining permafrost thermal conditions and its spatial distribution in land system models. We compiled a soil temperature dataset from 72 monitoring stations in Alaska using data collected by the US Geological Survey, the National Park Service, and the University of Alaska Fairbanks permafrost monitoring networks. The array of monitoring stations spans a large range of latitudes from 60.9 to 71.3 N and elevations from near sea level to~ 1300 m, comprising tundra and boreal forest regions. This dataset consists of monthly ground temperatures at depths up to 1 m, volumetric soil water content, snow depth, and air temperature during 1997–2016. These data have been quality controlled in collection and processing. Meanwhile, we implemented data harmonization evaluation for the processed dataset. The final product (PF-AK, v0. 1) is available at the Arctic Data Center (https://doi. org/10.18739/A2KG55).

Description: Although quantitative isotope data from speleothems has been used to evaluate isotope-enabled model simulations, currently no consensus exists regarding the most appropriate methodology through which to achieve this. A number of modelling groups will be running isotope-enabled palaeoclimate simulations in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, so it is timely to evaluate different approaches to using the speleothem data for data–model comparisons. Here, we illustrate this using 456 globally distributed speleothem δ18O records from an updated version of the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis (SISAL) database and palaeoclimate simulations generated using the ECHAM5-wiso isotope-enabled atmospheric circulation model. We show that the SISAL records reproduce the first-order spatial patterns of isotopic variability in the modern day, strongly supporting the application of this dataset for evaluating model-derived isotope variability into the past. However, the discontinuous nature of many speleothem records complicates the process of procuring large numbers of records if data–model comparisons are made using the traditional approach of comparing anomalies between a control period and a given palaeoclimate experiment. To circumvent this issue, we illustrate techniques through which the absolute isotope values during any time period could be used for model evaluation. Specifically, we show that speleothem isotope records allow an assessment of a model’s ability to simulate spatial isotopic trends. Our analyses provide a protocol for using speleothem isotope data for model evaluation, including screening the observations to take into account the impact of speleothem mineralogy on δ18O values, the optimum period for the modern observational baseline and the selection of an appropriate time window for creating means of the isotope data for palaeo-time-slices.

Description: We present here the first results, for the preindustrial and mid-Holocene climatological periods, of the newly developed isotope-enhanced version of the fully coupled Earth system model MPI-ESM, called hereafter MPI-ESM-wiso. The water stable isotopes H16O, H18O and HDO have been implemented into all components of the coupled model setup. The mid-Holocene provides the opportunity to evaluate the model response to changes in the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of insolation induced by different orbital forcing conditions. The results of our equilibrium simulations allow us to evaluate the performance of the isotopic model in simulating the spatial and temporal variations of water isotopes in the different compartments of the hydrological system for warm climates. For the preindustrial climate, MPI-ESM-wiso reproduces very well the observed spatial distribution of the isotopic content in precipitation linked to the spatial variations in temperature and precipitation rate. We also find a good model–data agreement with the observed distribution of isotopic composition in surface seawater but a bias with the presence of surface seawater that is too 18O-depleted in the Arctic Ocean. All these results are improved compared to the previous model version ECHAM5/MPIOM. The spatial relationships of water isotopic composition with temperature, precipitation rate and salinity are consistent with observational data. For the preindustrial climate, the interannual relationships of water isotopes with temperature and salinity are globally lower than the spatial ones, consistent with previous studies. Simulated results under mid-Holocene conditions are in fair agreement with the isotopic measurements from ice cores and continental speleothems. MPI-ESM-wiso simulates a decrease in the isotopic composition of precipitation from North Africa to the Tibetan Plateau via India due to the enhanced monsoons during the mid-Holocene. Over Greenland, our simulation indicates a higher isotopic composition of precipitation linked to higher summer temperature and a reduction in sea ice, shown by positive isotope–temperature gradient. For the Antarctic continent, the model simulates lower isotopic values over the East Antarctic plateau, linked to the lower temperatures during the mid-Holocene period, while similar or higher isotopic values are modeled over the rest of the continent. While variations of isotopic contents in precipitation over West Antarctica between mid-Holocene and preindustrial periods are partly controlled by changes in temperature, the transport of relatively 18O-rich water vapor near the coast to the western ice core sites could play a role in the final isotopic composition. So, more caution has to be taken about the reconstruction of past temperature variations during warm periods over this area. The coupling of such a model with an ice sheet model or the use of a zoomed grid centered on this region could help to better describe the role of the water vapor transport and sea ice around West Antarctica. The reconstruction of past salinity through isotopic content in sea surface waters can be complicated for regions with strong ocean dynamics, variations in sea ice regimes or significant changes in freshwater budget, giving an extremely variable relationship between the isotopic content and salinity of ocean surface waters over small spatial scales. These complicating factors demonstrate the complexity of interpreting water isotopes as past climate signals of warm periods like the mid-Holocene. A systematic isotope model intercomparison study for further insights on the model dependency of these results would be beneficial.

Description: Permafrost temperatures are increasing in Alaska due to climate change and in some cases permafrost is thawing and degrading. In areas where degradation has already occurred the effects can be dramatic, resulting in changing ecosystems, carbon release, and damage to infrastructure. However, in many areas we lack baseline data, such as subsurface temperatures, needed to assess future changes and potential risk areas. Besides climate, the physical properties of the vegetation cover and subsurface material have a major influence on the thermal state of permafrost. These properties are often directly related to the type of ecosystem overlaying permafrost. In this paper we demonstrate that classifying the landscape into general ecotypes is an effective way to scale up permafrost thermal data collected from field monitoring sites. Additionally, we find that within some ecotypes the absence of a moss layer is indicative of the absence of near-surface permafrost. As a proof of concept, we used the ground temperature data collected from the field sites to recode an ecotype land cover map into a map of mean annual ground temperature ranges at 1 m depth based on analysis and clustering of observed thermal regimes. The map should be useful for decision making with respect to land use and understanding how the landscape might change under future climate scenarios.

Description: The Mozambique Ridge, a prominent basement high in the southwestern Indian Ocean, consists of four major geomorphological segments associated with numerous phases of volcanic activity in the Lower Cretaceous. The nature and origin of the Mozambique Ridge have been intensely debated with one hypothesis suggesting a Large Igneous Province origin. High-resolution seismic reflection data reveal a large number of extrusion centres with a random distribution throughout the southern Mozambique Ridge and the nearby Transkei Rise. Intra-basement reflections emerge from the extrusion centres and are interpreted to represent massive lava flow sequences. Such lava flow sequences are characteristic of eruptions leading to the formation of continental and oceanic flood basalt provinces, hence supporting a Large Igneous Province origin of the Mozambique Ridge. We observe evidence for widespread post-sedimentary magmatic activity that we correlate with a southward propagation of the East African Rift System. Based on our volumetric analysis of the southern Mozambique Ridge we infer a rapid sequential emplacement between ~131 Ma and ~125 Ma, which is similar to the short formation periods of other Large Igneous Provinces like the Agulhas Plateau.

Description: Exploitation of Southern Ocean marine resources began more than 200 years ago with the massive hunt for seals and whales. In the 1960s/70s, fisheries for finfish and krill entered Southern Ocean waters. Within a few years many fish populations were heavily overfished and dramatically depleted, and some of these stocks still did not recover. Today, fish stocks and fisheries activities are managed and monitored by the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) which was established in 1982 to ensure sustainable exploitation and protection of the delicate marine ecosystem. Current target species include Mackerel icefish (Champsocephalus gunnari), Patagonian as well as Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides and D. mawsoni) and Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba). Most of these species are vulnerable to overfishing due to slow growth, late age at maturity, and rather low fecundity. This vulnerability might increase, as Southern Ocean living communities are currently also faced with alterations of their environment due to climate change, such as increasing water temperatures and decreasing sea ice. Species, including the ones targetted by fisheries, are well-adapted to their particular environmental conditions and are believed to be highly sensitive to changes because of their cold-adapted physiology, their life history traits, and their direct or indirect dependence on sea ice. The species will be exposed to several stressors at the same time, and fishing pressure, direct abiotic forcing and changes mediated via the food web might act synergistically and result in significant population declines. In particular the strongly sea ice-dependent Antarctic krill, a key species in the food web, might be adversely affected. Fish species seems to have low tolerance towards higher water temperatures and may thus, in the long run, be replaced by lower latitude species.

Description: Climate trends in the Antarctic region remain poorly characterized, owing to the brevity and scarcity of direct climate observations and the large magnitude of interannual to decadal-scale climate variability. Here, within the framework of the PAGES Antarctica2k working group, we build an enlarged database of ice core water stable isotope records from Antarctica, consisting of 112 records. We produce both unweighted and weighted isotopic (δ18O) composites and temperature reconstructions since 0 CE, binned at 5- and 10-year resolution, for seven climatically distinct regions covering the Antarctic continent. Following earlier work of the Antarctica2k working group, we also produce composites and reconstructions for the broader regions of East Antarctica, West Antarctica and the whole continent. We use three methods for our temperature reconstructions: (i) a temperature scaling based on the δ18O–temperature relationship output from an ECHAM5-wiso model simulation nudged to ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalyses from 1979 to 2013, and adjusted for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet region to borehole temperature data, (ii) a temperature scaling of the isotopic normalized anomalies to the variance of the regional reanalysis temperature and (iii) a composite-plus-scaling approach used in a previous continent-scale reconstruction of Antarctic temperature since 1 CE but applied to the new Antarctic ice core database. Our new reconstructions confirm a significant cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE across all Antarctic regions where records extend back into the 1st millennium, with the exception of the Wilkes Land coast and Weddell Sea coast regions. Within this long-term cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE, we find that the warmest period occurs between 300 and 1000 CE, and the coldest interval occurs from 1200 to 1900 CE. Since 1900 CE, significant warming trends are identified for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the Dronning Maud Land coast and the Antarctic Peninsula regions, and these trends are robust across the distribution of records that contribute to the unweighted isotopic composites and also significant in the weighted temperature reconstructions. Only for the Antarctic Peninsula is this most recent century-scale trend unusual in the context of natural variability over the last 2000 years. However, projected warming of the Antarctic continent during the 21st century may soon see significant and unusual warming develop across other parts of the Antarctic continent. The extended Antarctica2k ice core isotope database developed by this working group opens up many avenues for developing a deeper understanding of the response of Antarctic climate to natural and anthropogenic climate forcings. The first long-term quantification of regional climate in Antarctica presented herein is a basis for data–model comparison and assessments of past, present and future driving factors of Antarctic climate.

Description: The denudation history of active orogens is often interpreted in the context of modern climate gradients. Here we address the validity of this approach and ask what are the spatial and temporal variations in palaeoclimate for a latitudinally diverse range of active orogens? We do this using high-resolution (T159, ca. 80 × 80 km at the Equator) palaeoclimate simulations from the ECHAM5 global atmospheric general circulation model and a statistical cluster analysis of climate over different orogens (Andes, Himalayas, SE Alaska, Pacific NW USA). Time periods and boundary conditions considered include the Pliocene (PLIO, ∼3Ma), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼21ka), mid-Holocene (MH, ∼6ka), and pre-industrial (PI, reference year 1850). The regional simulated climates of each orogen are described by means of cluster analyses based on the variability in precipitation, 2 m air temperature, the intra-annual amplitude of these values, and monsoonal wind speeds where appropriate. Results indicate the largest differences in the PI climate existed for the LGM and PLIO climates in the form of widespread cooling and reduced precipitation in the LGM and warming and enhanced precipitation during the PLIO. The LGM climate shows the largest deviation in annual precipitation from the PI climate and shows enhanced precipitation in the temperate Andes and coastal regions for both SE Alaska and the US Pacific Northwest. Furthermore, LGM precipitation is reduced in the western Himalayas and enhanced in the eastern Himalayas, resulting in a shift of the wettest regional climates eastward along the orogen. The cluster-analysis results also suggest more climatic variability across latitudes east of the Andes in the PLIO climate than in other time slice experiments conducted here. Taken together, these results highlight significant changes in late Cenozoic regional climatology over the last ∼3Myr. Comparison of simulated climate with proxy-based reconstructions for the MH and LGM reveal satisfactory to good performance of the model in reproducing precipitation changes, although in some cases discrepancies between neighbouring proxy observations highlight contradictions between proxy observations themselves. Finally, we document regions where the largest magnitudes of late Cenozoic changes in precipitation and temperature occur and offer the highest potential for future observational studies that quantify the impact of climate change on denudation and weathering rates.

Description: In austral spring 2016 the Antarctic region experienced anomalous sea ice retreat in all sectors, with sea ice extent in October and November 2016 being the lowest in the Southern Hemisphere over the observational period (1979–present). The extreme sea ice retreat was accompanied by widespread warming along the coastal areas as well as in the interior of the Antarctic continent. This exceptional event occurred along with a strong negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the moistest and warmest spring on record, over large areas covering the Indian Ocean, the Ross Sea and the Weddell Sea. In October 2016, the positive anomalies of the totally integrated water vapor (IWV) and 2 m air temperature (T2m) over the Indian Ocean, western Pacific, Bellingshausen Sea and southern part of Ross Sea were unprecedented in the last 39 years. In October and November 2016, when the largest magnitude of negative daily sea ice concentration anomalies was observed, repeated episodes of poleward advection of warm and moist air took place. These results suggest the importance of moist and warm air intrusions into the Antarctic region as one of the main contributors to this exceptional sea ice retreat event.

Description: To resolve the mechanisms behind the major climate reorganisation which occurred between 0.9 and 1.2Ma, the recovery of a suitable 1.5 million-year-old ice core is fundamental. The quest for such an Oldest Ice core requires a number of key boundary conditions, of which the poorly known basal geothermal heat flux (GHF) is lacking. We use a transient thermodynamical 1D vertical model that solves for the rate of change of temperature in the vertical, with surface temperature and modelled GHF as boundary conditions. For each point on the ice sheet, the model is forced with variations in atmospheric conditions over the last 2Ma, and modelled ice-thickness variations. The process is repeated for a range of GHF values to determine the value of GHF that marks the limit between frozen and melting conditions over the whole ice sheet, taking into account 2Ma of climate history. These threshold values of GHF are statistically compared to existing GHF data sets. The new probabilistic GHF fields obtained for the ice sheet thus provide the missing boundary conditions in the search for Oldest Ice. High spatial resolution radar data are examined locally in the Dome Fuji and Dome C regions, as these represent the ice core community's primary drilling sites. GHF, bedrock variability, ice thickness and other essential criteria combined highlight a dozen major potential Oldest Ice sites in the vicinity of Dome Fuji and Dome C, where GHF allows for Oldest Ice.

Description: Polar ice core water isotope records are commonly used to infer past changes in Antarctic temperature, motivating an improved understanding and quantification of the temporal relationship between δ18O and temperature. This can be achieved using simulations performed by atmospheric general circulation models equipped with water stable isotopes. Here, we evaluate the skills of the high-resolution water-isotope-enabled atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5-wiso (the European Centre Hamburg Model) nudged to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis using simulations covering the period 1960–2013 over the Antarctic continent. We compare model outputs with field data, first with a focus on regional climate variables and second on water stable isotopes, using our updated dataset of water stable isotope measurements from precipitation, snow, and firn–ice core samples. ECHAM5-wiso simulates a large increase in temperature from 1978 to 1979, possibly caused by a discontinuity in the European Reanalyses (ERA) linked to the assimilation of remote sensing data starting in 1979. Although some model–data mismatches are observed, the (precipitation minus evaporation) outputs are found to be realistic products for surface mass balance. A warm model bias over central East Antarctica and a cold model bias over coastal regions explain first-order δ18O model biases by too strong isotopic depletion on coastal areas and underestimated depletion inland. At the second order, despite these biases, ECHAM5-wiso correctly captures the observed spatial patterns of deuterium excess. The results of model–data comparisons for the inter-annual δ18O standard deviation difer when using precipitation or ice core data. Further studies should explore the importance of deposition and post-deposition processes affecting ice core signals and not resolved in the model. These results build trust in the use of ECHAM5-wiso outputs to investigate the spatial, seasonal, and inter-annual δ18O–temperature relationships. We thus make the first Antarctica-wide synthesis of prior results. First, we show that local spatial or seasonal slopes are not a correct surrogate for inter-annual temporal slopes, leading to the conclusion that the same isotope–temperature slope cannot be applied for the climatic interpretation of Antarctic ice core for all timescales. Finally, we explore the phasing between the seasonal cycles of deuterium excess and δ18O as a source of information on changes in moisture sources affecting the δ18O–temperature relationship. The few available records and ECHAM5-wiso show different phase relationships in coastal, intermediate, and central regions. This work evaluates the use of the ECHAM5-wiso model as a tool for the investigation of water stable isotopes in Antarctic precipitation and calls for extended studies to improve our understanding of such proxies.

Description: The effect of external forcings on atmospheric circulation is debated. Due to the short observational period, the analysis of the role of external forcings is hampered, making it difficult to assess the sensitivity of atmospheric circulation to external forcings, as well as persistence of the effects. In observations, the average response to tropical volcanic eruptions is a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the following winter. However, past major tropical eruptions exceeding the magnitude of eruptions during the instrumental era could have had more lasting effects. Decadal NAO variability has been suggested to follow the 11-year solar cycle, and linkages have been made between grand solar minima and negative NAO. However, the solar link to NAO found by modeling studies is not unequivocally supported by reconstructions, and is not consistently present in observations for the 20th century. Here we present a reconstruction of atmospheric winter circulation for the North Atlantic region covering the period 1241–1970 CE. Based on seasonally resolved Greenland ice core records and a 1200-year-long simulation with an isotope-enabled climate model, we reconstruct sea level pressure and temperature by matching the spatiotemporal variability in the modeled isotopic composition to that of the ice cores. This method allows us to capture the primary (NAO) and secondary mode (Eastern Atlantic Pattern) of atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic region, while, contrary to previous reconstructions, preserving the amplitude of observed year-to-year atmospheric variability. Our results show five winters of positive NAO on average following major tropical volcanic eruptions, which is more persistent than previously suggested. In response to decadal minima of solar activity we find a high-pressure anomaly over northern Europe, while a reinforced opposite response in pressure emerges with a 5-year time lag. On centennial timescales we observe a similar response of circulation as for the 5-year time-lagged response, with a high-pressure anomaly across North America and south of Greenland. This response to solar forcing is correlated to the second mode of atmospheric circulation, the Eastern Atlantic Pattern. The response could be due to an increase in blocking frequency, possibly linked to a weakening of the subpolar gyre. The long-term anomalies of temperature during solar minima shows cooling across Greenland, Iceland and western Europe, resembling the cooling pattern during the Little Ice Age (1450–1850 CE). While our results show significant correlation between solar forcing and the secondary circulation pattern on decadal (r = 0.29, p 〈 0.01) and centennial timescales (r = 0.6, p 〈 0.01), we find no consistent relationship between solar forcing and NAO. We conclude that solar and volcanic forcing impacts different modes of our reconstructed atmospheric circulation, which can aid in separating the regional effects of forcings and understanding the underlying mechanisms.

Description: North Pacific Intermediate water (NPIW) is a dominant water mass controlling ∼400-1200m depth North Pacific Ocean, meanwhile there is a cessation of North Pacific deep water (NPDW) formation in in modern observations. In contrast, paleoceanographic evidences have recorded NPDW formations during last glacial periods. This sug- gests either a rapid or gradual shutting down process of NPDW formation during the last deglaciation. Here, we use an Earth System Model to diagnose the physical and corresponding biogeochemical evolutions in the North Pacific Ocean before and after the last deglaciation, as well as potential changes during rapid climate shifts of the last deglaciation. Linked to different background climate conditions and varying Atlantic Meridional Over- turning Circulation states, we characterize the modelled NPIW and NPDW changes and builds up linkages to marine records. Our results further develop our understanding about the deglacial switch from NPDW to modern NPIW-only formation process.

Description: Permafrost presence is determined by a complex interaction of climatic, topographic, and ecological conditions operating over long time scales. In particular, vegetation and organic layer characteristics may act to protect permafrost in regions with a mean annual air temperature (MAAT) above 0°C. In this study, we document the presence of residual permafrost plateaus in the western Kenai Peninsula lowlands of south-central Alaska, a region with a MAAT of 1.5+/-1 °C (1981–2010). Continuous ground temperature measurements between 16 September 2012 and 15 September 2015, using calibrated thermistor strings, documented the presence of warm permafrost (-0.04 to -0.08 °C). Field measurements (probing) on several plateau features during the fall of 2015 showed that the depth to the permafrost table averaged 1.48m but at some locations was as shallow as 0.53 m. Late winter surveys (augering, coring, and GPR) in 2016 showed that the average seasonally frozen ground thickness was 0.45 m, overlying a talik above the permafrost table. Measured permafrost thickness ranged from 0.33 to 〉6.90 m. Manual interpretation of historic aerial photography acquired in 1950 indicates that residual permafrost plateaus covered 920 ha as mapped across portions of four wetland complexes encompassing 4810 ha. However, between 1950 and ca. 2010, permafrost plateau extent decreased by 60.0 %, with lateral feature degradation accounting for 85.0% of the reduction in area. Permafrost loss on the Kenai Peninsula is likely associated with a warming climate, wildfires that remove the protective forest and organic layer cover, groundwater flow at depth, and lateral heat transfer from wetland surface waters in the summer. Better understanding the resilience and vulnerability of ecosystem-protected permafrost is critical for mapping and predicting future permafrost extent and degradation across all permafrost regions that are currently warming. Further work should focus on reconstructing permafrost history in south-central Alaska as well as additional contemporary observations of these ecosystem-protected permafrost sites south of the regions with relatively stable permafrost.

Description: The Pernicana Fault (PF) is the main structural element of Mt Etna and the northern boundary of a section sliding to the southeast. Observed ground motion records in the damage zone of the PF show strong variations of directional resonance in the horizontal plane. The observed resonance directions exhibit an abrupt rotation of azimuth by about 30◦ across the fault, varying from N166◦ on the north side to N139◦ on the south. We interpret the directional resonance observations in terms of changes in the kinematics and deformation fields on the opposite sides of the fault. The northern side is affected primarily by the left-lateral strike-slip movement, whereas the southern side, that is subjected also to sliding, is under a dominant extensional stress regime. Brittle deformation models based on the observed kinematic field predict different sets of fractures on the opposite sides of the fault: synthetic cleavages and extensional fractures are expected to dominate in the northern and southern sides, respectively. These two fracture fields have different orientations (N74◦ and N42◦, respectively) and both show a near-orthogonal relation (∼88◦ in the northern sector and ∼83◦ to the south) with the azimuth of the observed directional resonance. We conclude that the direction of the largest resonance motions is sensitive to and has transversal relationship with the dominant fracture orientation. The directional amplification is inferred to be produced by stiffness anisotropy of the fault damage zone, with larger seismic motions normal to the fractures.

Description: Published

Description: 986–996

Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: We consider a seismicity forecast experiment conducted during the last 4 yr. At the beginning of each year, three models make a 1-yr forecast of the distribution of large earthquakes everywhere on the Earth. The forecasts are generated and the observations are collected in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). We apply CSEP likelihood measures of consistency and comparison to see how well the forecasts match the observations, and we compare results from some intuitive reference models. These results illustrate some undesirable properties of the consistency tests: the tests can be extremely sensitive to only a few earthquakes, and yet insensitive to seemingly obvious flaws—a na ̈ıve hypothesis that large earthquakes are equally likely everywhere is not always rejected. The results also suggest that one should check the assumptions of the so-called T and W comparison tests, and we illustrate some methods to do so. As an extension of model assessment, we explore strategies to combine forecasts, and we discuss the implications for operational earthquake forecasting. Finally, we make suggestions for the next generation of global seismicity forecast experiments.

Description: Published

Description: 422-431

Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: The M ∼ 7 1915 Fucino (Central Italy) earthquake represents one of the most destructive seismic events ever occurred in the Italian Peninsula. Several seismogenic faults have been proposed in the past decades as the source of the earthquake by means of different approaches and techniques that lead to a variety of speculations about the source mechanism and the fault location, often contrasting with one another. The 1915 earthquake produced a remarkable data set of 73 coseismic hydrological changes in the near and intermediate field that consist in variation of the flow of streams and springs, liquefaction, rise of water temperature and turbidity. In this paper, we study the coseismic water level changes induced by the 1915 earthquake in the near field to provide convincing clues on the geometry of the earthquake causative fault. We model the coseismic strain field induced by seventeen individual faults proposed through different approaches, and compare its pattern with the distribution of streamflow changes. We find: (i) clues on the most probable geometry of the earthquake causative fault. Best fits between modelled deformation and observed data are displayed by sources (derived by geological or seismological data) that share several distinctive features, as they are ∼135◦-striking, SW-dipping, 25–30-km-long normal faults located along the eastern side of the Fucino basin. These data point to the Serrone Fault and the Parasano Fault as the most likely causative structures and support the hypothesis that the coseismic ruptures observed in the field represented primary surface faulting. On the contrary, our calculations show that the Pescina Fault and the Ventrino Fault are secondary faults from the perspective of the hydrological response. Finally, one of the best scoring potential sources (from geological data) is a multifaulting system that considers the presence, in the central-western part of the basin, of fault splays synthetic and antithetic to the main seismogenic structures; therefore, we infer for these splays a possible active involvement in a 1915-like seismogenic process; (ii) evidence against a number of seismogenic structures that were previously associated with the earthquake. In particular, the plots of coseismic strain induced by sources uniquely derived by macroseismic or geodetic data prove to be inconsistent with the polarities of the hydrological signatures. Also, sources mainly characterized by reverse faulting and/or by right-lateral strike-slip component are discarded and (iii) as a final remark, we maintain that the study of the hydrological signatures of earthquake strain can offer an alternative tool in the investigation of the historical seismicity, to estimate the focal mechanism of major earthquakes capable of giving rise to a consistent data set of hydrological data.

Description: Published

Description: 1374-1388

Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: Macroseismic intensities are the only available data for most historical earthquakes and often represent the unique source of information for crucial events in the definition of seismic hazard. In this paper, we attempt at getting insight into source characteristics by reproducing the observed intensity field. As a test case, we study the source of 1908 Messina Straits earthquake ( M W = 7.1), by testing three distinct fault models deduced from the analysis of geodeticdata.Startingfromthestaticslipdistribution,wedevelop kinematicsourcemodelsfor the investigated fault and compute full waveform synthetic seismograms in a 1-D structural model, also accounting for anelastic attenuation. Then, we convert both computed peak- ground acceleration (PGA) and peak-ground velocity (PGV) to macroseismic intensity at 100 selected sites, by means of specific empirical relations for the Italian region. By comparing the original data separately with PGA- and PGV-based intensity fields, we discriminate among the tested faults and determine the best values for the investigated kinematic parameters of the source. We also perform a misfit analysis for the best source model, in order to investigate the dependence of the results on the selected parametrization. The results of the analysis indicate that among the tested models, the one characterized by an east-dipping fault, with strike- oriented NS slightly rotated clockwise, better explains the observed macroseismic field of the 1908 Messina Straits earthquake. Besides, the fracture nucleated at the southern end of the fault and ruptured northward, producing considerable directivity effects. This is in agreement with the published results obtained from the investigation of the historical seismograms. We alsodeterminerealisticvalues fortherupturevelocityand therise-time.Ourstudyconfirms the greatpotentialofthemacroseismicdata,demonstratingthattheycontainenoughinformationto constrain important characteristics of the fault, which can be retrieved by using complex source models and computing complete wavefield. Moreover, we also show that the simultaneous comparison of both PGA- and PGV-based synthetic macroseismic fields with the original intensities provides tighter constraints for discriminating among different source models, with respect to what attainable from each of them

Description: Published

Description: 164-173

Description: 4T. Fisica dei terremoti e scenari cosismici

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: Gravity and height changes, reflecting magma accumulation in subsurface chambers, are evaluated using Finite Element models in order to resolve controversial relationships observed in some volcanic areas. When significant gravity changes occur without any significant deformation, or vice versa, it is often difficult, if not impossible, to jointly explain the observations using the popular Mogi model. Here we explore whether these discrepancies can be explained by magma compressibility and source geometry effects. Compression of resident magma and expansion of the chamber wall act concurrently to accommodate newly added magma. Gravity-height ratios are found to mainly depend on: (i) geometry of the sources, which control the volume expansion of the chamber, (ii) magma compressibility, which affects the contraction of the magma resident in the chamber, and (iii) depth of the sources. Our numerical results show that, when magma compressibility and non-spherical sources are taken into account, significant gravity variations can, indeed, be successfully reconciled with negligible height changes. This may be the case at Etna volcano, where gravity changes (about 40 miuGal) without any significant deformation (below 5 cm) were observed during the 1994-1995 inflation period. The numerical results point to the accumulation of a 1.4x10^10 kg mass into an elongated source simulating a shallow storage region supplying the summit craters.

Description: Published

Description: 164-173

Description: 4V. Vulcani e ambiente

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: We present an up-to-date high resolution picture of the ongoing crustal deformation field of Italy, based on an extensive combination of permanent and non-permanent GPS observations carried out since 1994. In addition, we present an updated map of contemporary SHmax orientations computed by a multidisciplinary data set of well-constrained stress indicators, including both published results and novel analyses. The comparison of stress and geodetic strain-rates directions reveals that both patterns are near-parallel over a large part of the investigated area, highlighting that crustal stress and surface deformation are driven by the same mechanism. The comparison of the azimuthal patterns of surface strain and mantle deformation shows a modest correlation on the Alps and a low correlation along the Apennines chain and the Calabro-Peloritan Arc. Along the Apennines chain, this feature suggests the occurrence of significant strain partitioning and crust–mantle mechanical decoupling. Along the Calabro-Peloritan Arc, the apparent low correlation reflects a different mantle–crust mechanism of deformation to the ongoing subduction and rollback of the Ionian slab. In addition, the superposition of regional/local effects related to second-order sources (crustal lateral density changes, strength contrasts), which at regional/local scale modulate the crustal stress/strain-rate pattern, cannot be ruled out.

Description: Published

Description: 969-985

Description: 1T. Geodinamica e interno della Terra

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: In the Umbria Marche (Central Italy) region an important earthquake sequence occurred in 1997, characterized by nine earthquakes with magnitudes in the range between 5 and 6, that caused important damages and causalities. In the present paper we separately estimate intrinsic- and scattering- Q −1 parameters, using the classical MLTWA approach in the assumption of a half space model. The results clearly show that the attenuation parameters Qi −1 and Qs −1 are frequency dependent. This estimate is compared with other attenuation studies carried out in the same area, and with all the other MLTWA estimates obtained till now in other tectonic environments in the Earth. The bias introduced by the half space assumption is investigated through numerical solutions of the Energy Transport equation in the more realistic assumption of a heterogeneous crust overlying a transparent mantle, with a Moho located at a depth ranging between 35 and 45 km below the surface. The bias introduced by the half space assumption is significant only at high frequency. We finally show how the attenuation estimates, calculated with different techniques, lead to different PGA decay with distance relationships, using the well known and well proven Boore’s method. This last result indicates that care must be used in selecting the correct estimate of the attenuation parameters for seismic risk purposes. We also discuss the reason why MLTWA may be chosen among all the other available techniques, due to its intrinsic stability, to obtain the right attenuation parameters.

Description: Published

Description: 1370-1382

Description: 4T. Fisica dei terremoti e scenari cosismici

Description: JCR Journal

Description: open

Description: Seismological, geological and geodetic data have been integrated to characterize the seismogenic structure of the late 2013-early 2014 moderate energy (maximum local magnitude MLmax = 4.9) seismic sequence that struck the interior of the Matese Massif, part of the Southern Apennines active extensional belt. The sequence, heralded by a ML = 2.7 foreshock, was characterized by two main shocks with ML = 4.9 and ML = 4.2, respectively, which occurred at a depth of ∼17–18 km. The sequence was confined in the 10–20 km depth range, significantly deeper than the 1997–1998 sequence which occurred few km away on the northeastern side of the massif above ∼15 km depth. The depth distribution of the 2013–14 sequence is almost continuous, albeit a deeper (16–19 km) and a shallower (11–15 km) group of events can be distinguished, the former including the main shocks and the foreshock. The epicentral distribution formed a ∼10 km long NNW–SSE trending alignment, which almost parallels the surface trace of late Pliocene–Quaternary southwest-dipping normal faults with a poor evidence of current geological and geodetic deformation. We built an upper crustal model profile for the eastern Matese massif through integration of geological data, oil exploration well logs and seismic tomographic images. Projection of hypocentres on the profile suggests that the seismogenic volume falls mostly within the crystalline crust and subordinately within the Mesozoic sedimentary cover of Apulia, the underthrust foreland of the Southern Apennines fold and thrust belt. Geological data and the regional macroseismic field of the sequence suggest that the southwest-dipping nodal plane of the main shocks represents the rupture surface that we refer to here as the Matese fault. The major lithological discontinuity between crystalline and sedimentary rocks of Apulia likely confined upward the rupture extent of the Matese fault. Repeated coseismic failure represented by the deeper group of events in the sequence, activated in a passive fashion the overlying ∼11–15 km deep section of the upper crustal normal faults. We consider the southwest-dipping Matese fault representative of a poorly known type of seismogenic structures in the Southern Apennines, where extensional seismogenesis and geodetic strain accumulation occur more frequently on NE-dipping, shallower-rooted faults. This is the case of the Boiano Basin fault located on the northern side of the massif, to which the 1997–1998 sequence is related. The close proximity of the two types of seismogenic faults at the Matese Massif is related to the complex crustal architecture generated by the Pliocene–early Pleistocene contractional and transpressional tectonics.

Description: Published

Description: 823-837

Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva

Description: JCR Journal

Description: partially_open

Description: We analysed the conversion problem between teleseismic magnitudes (Ms and mb) provided by the Seismological Bulletin of the International Seismological Centre and moment magni- tudes (Mw) provided by online moment tensor (MT) catalogues using the chi-square general orthogonal regression method (CSQ) that, differently from the ordinary least-square regres- sion method (OLS), accounts for the measurement errors of both the predictor and response variables. To account for the non-linearity of the relationships, we used two types of curvilin- ear models: (i) the exponential model (EXP), recently proposed by the authors of the Global Catalogue sponsored by the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation and (ii) a connected bilinear (CBL) model, similar to that proposed by Ekstro ̈m & Dziewonski, where two different linear trends at low and high magnitudes are connected by an arc of circle that preserves the continuity of the function and of its first derivative at the connecting points. For Ms, we found that the regression curves computed for a global data set (GBL) are likely to be biased by the incompleteness of global MT catalogues for Mw 〈5.0–5.5. In fact, the GBL curves deviate significantly from a similar regression curve computed for a Euro-Mediterranean data set (MED) integrated with the data provided by two regional MT catalogues including many more events with Mw 〈 5.0–5.5. The GLB regression curves overestimate the Mw proxies computed from Ms up to 0.5 magnitude units. Hence for computing Mw proxies at the global scale of Ms ≤ 5.5, we suggest to adopt the coefficients obtained from the MED regression. The analysis of the frequency–magnitude relationship of the resulting Mw proxy catalogues confirms the validity of this choice as the behaviour of b-value as a function of cut-off magnitude of the GBL data set is much more stable using such approach. The incompleteness of Mw’s provided from MT global catalogues also affects the mb GBL data set but in this case the use of the CSQ regression method, in place of the OLS, mitigates the bias and then, at low magnitudes, the EXP regression curve computed from the more complete MED data set almost coincides with that computed from the GBL data set. Our results also indicate that the slope at low magnitudes of the Mw–Ms relationship is substantially consistent with the hypothesized theoretical value of 2/3 for Ms 〈 5.0 while the slope of the Mw–mb relationship at high magnitudes probably reaches the theoretically expected value of 2 only in the proximity of the upper limit of mb determinations in our data set (mb = 7.2).

Description: Published

Description: 805–828

Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: The mineralogy of thermometamorphic granites is relatively simple, making it possible to track the spatial distribution of chemical and mineralogical variations in these rocks and investigate the processes that underpin these metamorphic reactions.We have undertaken a detailed investigation of metagranites from the contact aureole that fringes a quartz diorite intrusion of Late Permian age, emplaced into Carboniferous peraluminous granites of the Gennargentu Igneous Complex (Sardinia, Italy). New data are presented including the petrography of metagranites within a 500 m zone adjacent to the quartz diorite intrusion, the compositions of minerals and bulk-rocks, and the oxygen isotope compositions of separated minerals. We have used these data to assess the mobility of elements, expressed as oxide, in the aureole, and the physical conditions of fluid-assisted thermometamorphism. Modal variations and the oscillatory zoning of plagioclase demonstrate that the shallow (P 200MPa) quartz diorite intrusion was emplaced through a number of magmatic injections.The border zone of the quartz diorite intrusion presents evidence of two main processes: hybridization between andesite and rhyolite magmas and volatile saturation of the mingled magma. Modal differences in the contact zone with respect to the protolith (i.e. peraluminous granite), variations in mineral composition, temperature constraints and K2O, Na2O, SiO2 and Al2O3 indicate that a relatively large volume of the host granite (up to 400 m from the contact) was metasomatized by high-temperature (650^3508C) fluids derived from the mingled zone of the quartz diorite intrusion. In detail, the metasomatic K2O-rich fluid reacted with albite to form K-feldspar, and triggered the recrystallization of quartz and plagioclase to higher calcium concentrations. The progressive increase in the MgO/(MgOþFeO) of chlorite closer to the contact indicates that this phase also recrystallized. The iron released during chlorite recrystallization was buffered by hematite formation in the pores of metasomatic K-feldspar. The Gennargentu metagranites provide evidence that metasomatic fluids can play a major role in driving metamorphic reactions in contact aureoles. For instance, the expected increase of Ca in plagioclase owing to thermal equilibration was not achieved in the high-T zone of the aureole because of fluid-assisted removal of cations.We conclude that caution should be taken when interpreting the processes that underpin contact metamorphism in terms of thermally driven, ionic diffusion alone, because the role of fluids may be significant, if not overwhelming, in the domains closest to the magmatic source.

Description: Published

Description: 839-859

Description: 3V. Dinamiche e scenari eruttivi

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: In a recent paper, important issues were raised about the identification of the fault responsible for the 1908 Messina Straits earthquake. Starting with a reanalysis of the available original geodetic data, the authors aimed to demonstrate that both of the fault–plane orientations derived by the focal mechanism are compatible with the measurements. On these grounds, and based on geological considerations, they argued in favour of the Armo fault—a high-angled structure on the Calabrian side of the Messina Straits—as responsible for the 1908 earthquake. We indicate here that their analysis has some pitfalls that produce questionable results, and that render their conclusions unreliable. Moreover, especially when dealing with such old events and data, we consider that it is more prudent not to derive conclusions on the basis of a single data set, as all of the available information should be included in any interpretation. Indeed, when the joint results of the seismological and geodetic analyses are taken into account, a consistent and robust source model can be derived that indicates that a low-angle, east-dipping fault is the most likely source of this 1908 Messina Straits earthquake

Description: Published

Description: 1399-1402

Description: 4T. Fisica dei terremoti e scenari cosismici

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: In this study,we use Differential Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (DInSAR) and multiaperture interferometry (MAI) to constrain the sources of the three largest events of the 2008 Baluchistan (western Pakistan) seismic sequence, namely two Mw 6.4 events only 12 hr apart and an Mw 5.7 event that occurred 40 d later. The sequence took place in the Quetta Syntaxis, the most seismically active region of Baluchistan, tectonically located between the colliding Indian Plate and the Afghan Block of the Eurasian Plate. Surface displacements estimated from ascending and descending ENVISAT ASAR acquisitions were used to derive elastic dislocation models for the sources of the two main events. The estimated slip distributions have peak values of 120 and 130 cm on a pair of almost parallel and near-vertical faults striking NW–SE, and of 50 cm and 60 cm on two high-angle faults striking NE–SW. Values up to 50 cm were found for the largest aftershock on an NE–SW fault located between the sources of the main shocks. The MAI measurements, with their high sensitivity to the north–south motion component, are crucial in this area to accurately describe the coseismic displacement field. Our results provide insight into the deformation style of the Quetta Syntaxis, suggesting that right-lateral slip released at shallow depths on large NW fault planes is compatible with left-lateral activation on smaller NE–SW faults.

Description: Published

Description: 25-39

Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: The relative seismic velocity variations possibly associated to large earthquakes can be readily monitored via cross-correlation of seismic noise. In a recently published study, more than 2 yr of continuous seismic records have been analysed from three stations surrounding the epicentre of the 2009 April 6, Mw 6.1 L’Aquila earthquake, observing a clear decrease of seismic velocities likely corresponding to the co-seismic shaking. Here, we extend the analysis in space, including seismic stations within a radius of 60 km from the main shock epicentre, and in time, collecting 5 yr of data for the six stations within 40 km of it. Our aim is to investigate how far the crustal damage is visible through this technique, and to detect a potential post-seismic recovery of velocity variations. We find that the co-seismic drop in velocity variations extends up to 40 km from the epicentre, with spatial distribution (maximum around the fault and in the north– east direction from it) in agreement with the horizontal co-seismic displacement detected by global positioning system (GPS). In the first few months after L’Aquila earthquake, the crust’s perturbation in terms of velocity variations displays a very unstable behaviour, followed by a slow linear recovery towards pre-earthquake conditions; by almost 4 yr after the event, the co-seismic drop of seismic velocity is not yet fully recovered. The strong oscillations of the velocity changes in the first months after the earthquake prevent to detect the fast exponential recovery seen by GPS data. A test of differently parametrized fitting curves demonstrate that the post-seismic recovery is best explained by a sum of a logarithmic and a linear term, suggesting that processes like viscoelastic relaxation, frictional afterlip and poroelastic rebound may be acting concurrently.

Description: Published

Description: 604-6011

Description: 4T. Fisica dei terremoti e scenari cosismici

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: Downtown L'Aquila suffered severe damage (VIII-IX EMS98 intensity) during the 2009 April 6 Mw 6.3 earthquake. The city is settled on a top flat hill, with a shear-wave velocity profile characterized by a reversal of velocity at a depth of the order of 50–100 m, corresponding to the contact between calcareous breccia and lacustrine deposits. In the southern sector of downtown, a thin unit of superficial red soils causes a further shallow impedance contrast that may have influenced the damage distribution during the 2009 earthquake. In this paper, the main features of ambient seismic vibrations have been studied in the entire city centre by using array measurements. We deployed six 2-D arrays of seismic stations and 1-D array of vertical geophones. The 2-D arrays recorded ambient noise, whereas the 1-D array recorded signals produced by active sources. Surface-wave dispersion curves have been measured by array methods and have been inverted through a neighbourhood algorithm, jointly with the H/V ambient noise spectral ratios related to Rayleigh waves ellipticity. We obtained shear-wave velocity (Vs) profiles representative of the southern and northern sectors of downtown L'Aquila. The theoretical 1-D transfer functions for the estimated Vs profiles have been compared to the available empirical transfer functions computed from aftershock data analysis, revealing a general good agreement. Then, the Vs profiles have been used as input for a deconvolution analysis aimed at deriving the ground motion at bedrock level. The deconvolution has been performed by means of EERA and STRATA codes, two tools commonly employed in the geotechnical engineering community to perform equivalent-linear site response studies. The waveform at the bedrock level has been obtained deconvolving the 2009 main shock recorded at a strong motion station installed in downtown. Finally, this deconvolved waveform has been used as seismic input for evaluating synthetic time-histories in a strong-motion target site located in the middle Aterno river valley. As a target site, we selected the strong-motion station of AQV 5 km away from downtown L'Aquila. For this site, the record of the 2009 L'Aquila main shock is available and its surface stratigraphy is adequately known making possible to propagate the deconvolved bedrock motion back to the surface, and to compare recorded and synthetic waveforms.

Description: Published

Description: 848–866

Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: We propose an innovative approach to mapping CMB topography from seismic P-wave trav- eltime inversions: instead of treating mantle velocity and CMB topography as independent parameters, as has been done so far, we account for their coupling by mantle flow, as formulated by Forte & Peltier. This approach rests on the assumption that P data are sufficiently sensitive to thermal heterogeneity, and that compositional heterogeneity, albeit important in localized regions of the mantle (e.g. within the D′′ region), is not sufficiently strong to govern the pattern of mantle-wide convection and hence the CMB topography. The resulting tomographic maps of CMB topography are physically sound, and they resolve the known discrepancy between images obtained from classic tomography on the basis of core-reflected and core-refracted seismic phases. Since the coefficients of mantle velocity structure are the only free parameters of the inversion, this joint tomography–geodynamics approach reduces the number of param- eters; nevertheless the corresponding mantle models fit the seismic data as well as the purely seismic ones.

Description: Published

Description: 730-746

Description: 1T. Geodinamica e interno della Terra

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: We present the results of palaeomagnetic analysis on Late Bronge Age pottery from Santorini carried out in order to estimate the thermal effect of the Minoan eruption on the pre-Minoan habitation level. A total of 170 specimens from 108 ceramic fragments have been studied. The ceramics were collected from the surface of the pre-Minoan palaeosol at six different sites, including also samples from the Akrotiri archaeological site. The deposition temperatures of the first pyroclastic products have been estimated by the maximum overlap of the re-heating temperature intervals given by the individual fragments at site level. A new statistical elaboration of the temperature data has also been proposed, calculating at 95 per cent of probability the re-heating temperatures at each site. The obtained results show that the precursor tephra layer and the first pumice fall of the eruption were hot enough to re-heat the underlying ceramics at temperatures 160–230 ◦C in the non-inhabited sites while the temperatures recorded inside the Akrotiri village are slightly lower, varying from 130 to 200 ◦C. The decrease of the temperatures registered in the human settlements suggests that there was some interaction between the buildings and the pumice fallout deposits while probably the buildings debris layer caused by the preceding and syn-eruption earthquakes has also contributed to the decrease of the recorded re-heating temperatures.

Description: Published

Description: 33-47

Description: 1A. Geomagnetismo e Paleomagnetismo

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) relies on computationally demanding numerical simulations of tsunami generation, propagation, and non-linear inundation on high-resolution topo-bathymetric models. Here we focus on tsunamis generated by co-seismic sea floor dis- placement, that is, on Seismic PTHA (SPTHA). A very large number of tsunami simulations are typically needed to incorporate in SPTHA the full expected variability of seismic sources (the aleatory uncertainty). We propose an approach for reducing their number. To this end, we (i) introduce a simplified event tree to achieve an effective and consistent exploration of the seismic source parameter space; (ii) use the computationally inexpensive linear approximation for tsunami propagation to construct a preliminary SPTHA that calculates the probability of maximum offshore tsunami wave height (H Max) at a given target site; (iii) apply a two-stage filtering procedure to these ‘linear’ SPTHA results, for selecting a reduced set of sources and (iv) calculate ‘non-linear’ probabilistic inundation maps at the target site, using only the selected sources. We find that the selection of the important sources needed for approximating probabilistic inundation maps can be obtained based on the offshore HMax values only. The filtering procedure is semi-automatic and can be easily repeated for any target sites. We describe and test the performances of our approach with a case study in the Mediterranean that considers potential subduction earthquakes on a section of the Hellenic Arc, three target sites on the coast of eastern Sicily and one site on the coast of southern Crete. The comparison between the filtered SPTHA results and those obtained for the full set of sources indicates that our approach allows for a 75–80 per cent reduction of the number of the numerical simulations needed, while preserving the accuracy of probabilistic inundation maps to a reasonable degree.

Description: Published

Description: 574-588

Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: Temporal variations in the elastic behaviour of the Earth’s crust can be monitored through the analysis of the Earth’s seismic response and its evolution with time. This kind of analysis is particularly interesting when combined with the reconstruction of seismic Green’s functions from the cross-correlation of ambient seismic noise, which circumvents the limitations imposed by a dependence on the occurrence of seismic events. In fact, because seismic noise is recorded continuously and does not depend on earthquake sources, these cross-correlation functions can be considered analogously to records from continuously repeating doublet sources placed at each station, and can be used to extract observations of variations in seismic velocities. These variations, however, are typically very small: of the order of 0.1 per cent. Such accuracy can be only achieved through the analysis of the full reconstructed waveforms, including later scattered arrivals. We focus on the method known as Moving-Window Cross-Spectral Analysis that has the advantage of operating in the frequency domain, where the bandwidth of coherent signal in the correlation function can be clearly defined. We investigate the sensitivity of this method by applying it to microseismic noise cross-correlations which have been perturbed by small synthetic velocity variations and which have been randomly contaminated. We propose threshold signal-to-noise ratios above which these perturbations can be reliably observed. Such values are a proxy for cross-correlation convergence, and so can be used as a guideline when determining the length of microseismic noise records that are required before they can be used for monitoring with the moving-window cross-spectral technique.

Description: Published

Description: 867-882

Description: 4T. Fisica dei terremoti e scenari cosismici

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: In this study we have investigated the forward directivity associated with the initial up-dip rupture propagation during the April 6th 2009 (MW 6.1) L’Aquila normal-faulting earthquake. The objective is the understanding of how the peculiar initial behavior of rupture history during the main shock has affected the near-source recorded ground motions in the L’Aquila town and surrounding areas. We have modeled the observed ground velocities at the closest near-source recording sites by computing synthetic seismograms using a discrete wavenumbers and finite difference approach in the low frequency bandwidth (0.02-0.4 Hz) to avoid site effects contaminations. We use both the rupture model retrieved by inverting ground motion waveforms and continuous high sampling-rate GPS time series as well as uniform-slip constant-rupture speed models. Our results demonstrate that the initial up-dip rupture propagation, characterizing the first three seconds of the rupture history during the L’Aquila main shock and releasing only ∼25% of total seismic moment, controls the observed ground motions in the near-source. This initial stage of the rupture is characterized by the generation of clear ground velocity pulses, which we interpret as a forward directivity effect. Our modeling results confirm a heterogeneous distribution of rupture velocity during the initial up-dip rupture propagation, since uniform rupture speed models overestimate up-dip directivity effects in the footwall of the causative fault. The up-dip directivity observed in the near field during the 2009 L’Aquila main shock is that predicted for a normal faulting earthquake by Somerville’s directivity model, but it differs from that inferred from far-field observations that conversely provide evidence of along-strike directivity. This calls for a careful analysis as well as for the realistic inclusion of rupture directivity to predict ground motions in the near source.

Description: Published

Description: 1618-1631

Description: 4T. Fisica dei terremoti e scenari cosismici

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: The argument proposed by Wason et al. that the conversion of magnitudes from a scale (e.g. Ms or mb) to another (e.g. Mw), using the coefficients computed by the general orthogonal regression method (Fuller) is biased if the observed values of the predictor (independent) variable are used in the equation as well as the methodology they suggest to estimate the supposedly true values of the predictor variable are wrong for a number of theoretical and empirical reasons. Hence, we advise against the use of such methodology for magnitude conversions.

Description: Published

Description: 626-627

Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: Fluids—essentially meteoric water—are present everywhere in the Earth’s crust, occasionally also with pressures higher than hydrostatic due to the tectonic strain imposed on impermeable undrained layers, to the impoundment of artificial lakes or to the forced injections required by oil and gas exploration and production. Experimental evidence suggests that such fluids flow along preferred paths of high diffusivity, provided by rock joints and faults. Studying the coupled poroelastic problem, we find that such flow is ruled by a nonlinear partial differential equation amenable to a Barenblatt-type solution, implying that it takes place in formof solitary pressure waves propagating at a velocity which decreases with time as v ∝t [1/(n − 1) − 1] with n 7. According to Tresca-Von Mises criterion, these waves appear to play a major role in earthquake triggering, being also capable to account for aftershock delay without any further assumption. The measure of stress and fluid pressure inside active faults may therefore provide direct information about fault potential instability.

Description: Published

Description: 1281–1285

Description: 6T. Sismicità indotta e caratterizzazione sismica dei sistemi naturali

Description: N/A or not JCR

Description: restricted

Description: We reply to the comments of De Natale and Pino (2013) on the paper “Are the source models of the M 7.1 1908 Messina Straits earthquake reliable? Insights from a novel inversion and sensitivity analysis of levelling data” by Aloisi et al. (2012). We entirely reject their speculative comments and confirm our viewpoint about the impossibility of discriminating between the two oppositely dipping fault models on the basis of the levelling data alone; we state again that their role as a keystone for modellers is untenable. The comment of De Natale and Pino (2013) are welcomed insofar they give us the possibility to improve our previous analysis, and to criticize the mainstream hypothesis favoring to a low-angle East dipping fault in the Sicilian side of the Messina Straits as responsible of the 1908 destructive earthquake.

Description: Published

Description: 1403–1409

Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: In order to exploit radon profiles for geophysical purposes and also to estimate its entry indoors, it is necessary to study its transport through porous soils. The great number of involved parameters and processes affecting the emanation of radon from the soil grains and its transport in the source medium has led to many theoretical and/or laboratory studies. The authors report the first results of a laboratory study carried out at the Radioactivity Laboratory of the Department of Physics and Astronomy (University of Catania) by means of a facility for measuring radon concentrations in the sample pores at various depths under well-defined and controlled conditions of physical parameters. In particular, radon concentration vertical profiles extracted in low-moisture samples for different advective fluxes and temperatures were compared with expected concentrations, according to a three-phase transport model developed by Andersen (Risø National Laboratory, Denmark), showing, in general, a good agreement between measurements and model calculations.

Description: Published

Description: 575-581

Description: 4V. Vulcani e ambiente

Description: JCR Journal

Description: reserved

Description: Our improved capability to adapt to future changes in discharge is linked to our capability to predict the magnitude or at least the direction of these changes. For the agricultural U.S. Midwest, too much or too little water has severe socio-economic impacts. Here we focus on the Raccoon River at Van Meter, Iowa, and use a statistical approach to examine projected changes in discharge. We build on statistical models using rainfall and harvested corn and soybean acreage to explain the observed discharge variability. We then use projections of these two predictors to examine the projected discharge response. Results are based on seven global climate models part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). There is not a strong signal of change in the discharge projections under the RCP 4.5. However the results for the RCP 8.5 point to a stronger changing signal related to larger projected increases in rainfall, resulting in increasing trends in particular in the upper part of the discharge distribution (i.e., 60th percentile and above). Examination of two hypothetical agricultural scenarios indicates that these increasing trends could be alleviated by decreasing the extent of the agricultural production. We also discuss how the methodology presented in this study represents a viable approach to move forward with the concept of return period for engineering design and management in a non-stationary world.

Description: Published

Description: 1361–1371

Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: Abstract. When combined, the three-dimensional imaging of different physical properties of architectural monumen- tal structures acquired through different methodologies can highlight with efficiency the characteristics of the stone building materials. In this work, we compound high res- olution Digital Color Images (DCI) and Terrestrial Laser Scanner (TLS) data for a dense 3-D reconstruction of an ancient pillar in a nineteenth century building in the town of Cagliari, Italy. The TLS technique was supported by a digital photogrammetry survey in order to obtain a natural color texturized 3-D model of the studied pillar. Geometri- cal anomaly maps showing interesting analogies were com- puted both from the 3-D model derived from the TLS ap- plication and from the high resolution 3-D model detected with the photogrammetry. Starting from the 3-D reconstruc- tion from previous techniques, an acoustic tomography in a sector of prior interest of the investigated architectural ele- ment was planned and carried out. The ultrasonic tomogra- phy proved to be an effective tool for detecting internal decay or defects, locating the position of the anomalies and estimat- ing their sizes, shapes, and characteristics in terms of elastic- mechanical properties. Finally, the combination of geophysi- cal and petrographical data sets represents a powerful method for understanding the quality of the building stone materials in the shallow and inner parts of the investigated architectural structures.

Description: Regione Autonoma della Sardegna (RAS) (Sardinian Autonomous Region), Regional Law 7th August 2007, no. 7, Promotion of scientific research and technological innovation in Sardinia (Italy).

Description: Published

Description: 57-62

Description: 5T. Sismologia, geofisica e geologia per l'ingegneria sismica

Description: JCR Journal

Description: We present a strategy to thoroughly investigate the effects of prominent topography on the surface tilt due to a spherical pressure source. We use Etna's topography as a case of study and, for different source positions, we compare the tilt fields calculated through (i) a 3-D boundary element method and (ii) analytical half-space solutions. We systematically determine (i) the source positions leading to the strongest tilt misfits when numerical and analytical results are compared and (ii) the surface areas where the strongest distortions in the tilt field are most likely to be observed. We also demonstrate that, under critical circumstances, in terms of respective positions of pressure source and observation points, results of inversion procedures aimed at retrieving the source parameters can be misleading, if tilt data are analysed using models that do not account for topography.

Description: Published

Description: 1471–1481

Description: 2V. Dinamiche di unrest e scenari pre-eruttivi

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: We provide an updated present-day stress map for the Italian territory. Following the World Stress Map (WSM) Project guidelines, we list the different stress indicators, explaining the criteria used to select data. We discuss the data, which will also be included in the 2016 release of the WSM, highlighting the areas for which we have added stress information. Our map displays the minimum horizontal stress orientations inferred from crustal stress indicators down to 40 km depth using data of A–C quality, updated for earthquakes until December 2015. We have completely reviewed all data, and the data set now contains 855 entries, in contrast to the previous 715. The number of data with A–C quality of 630 corresponds to an increase of 26 per cent relative to the previous data set. In particular, the new data set contains the results of the analysis of borehole breakouts, critically reviewed data from earthquake focal mechanisms, data concerning active faults, formal inversions of focal mechanisms of seismic sequences or of restricted areas and one stress determination from overcoring. The new data set defines the stress field in areas not well covered by the previous data: the region north to the Po Plain and the central Adriatic sea, both characterized by a thrust- and strike-faulting regime, the northern Sicilian belt with a prevailing normal-faulting regime, and the Ionian sea with a strike-slip regime.

Description: Published

Description: 1525-1531

Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: The Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia runs the Italian National Seismic Network (about 400 stations, seismometers, accelerometers and GPS antennas) and other networks at national scale for monitoring earthquakes and tsunami as a part of the National Civil Protection System coordinated by the Italian Department of Civil Protection. This work summarises the acquisition and the distribution of the data and the analysis that are carried out for seismic surveillance and tsunami alert.

Description: INGV and DPC

Description: Published

Description: 31-38

Description: 1IT. Reti di monitoraggio

Description: N/A or not JCR

Description: The relationships between trachytes and peralkaline rhyolites (i.e. pantellerites and comendites), which occur in many continental rift systems, oceanic islands and continental intraplate settings, is unclear. To fill this gap, we have performed phase equilibrium experiments on two representative metaluminous trachytes from Pantelleria to determine both their pre-eruptive equilibration conditions (pressure, temperature, H2O content and redox state) and liquid lines of descent. Experiments were performed in the temperature range 750–950 C, pressure 0 5–1 5 kbar and fluid saturation conditions with XH2O [¼H2O/(H2OþCO2)] ranging between zero and unity. Redox conditions were fixed below the nickel–nickel oxide buffer (NNO). The results show that at 950 C and melt water contents (H2Omelt) close to saturation, trachytes are at liquidus conditions at all pressures. Clinopyroxene is the liquidus phase, being followed by iron-rich olivine and alkali feldspar. Comparison of experimental and natural phases (abundances and compositions) yields the following pre-eruptive conditions: P¼160 5 kbar, T¼925625 C, H2Omelt¼261wt %, and fO2 between NNO– 0 5 and NNO– 2. A decrease in temperature from 950 C to 750 C, as well as of H2Omelt, promotes a massive crystallization of alkali feldspar to over 80 wt %. Iron-bearing minerals show gradual iron enrichment when T and fO2 decrease, trending towards the compositions of the phenocrysts of natural pantellerites. Despite the metaluminous character of the bulk-rock compositions, residual glasses obtained after 80 wt % crystallization evolve toward comenditic compositions, owing to profuse alkali feldspar crystallization, which decreases the Al2O3 of the melt, leading to a consequent increase in the peralkalinity index [PI¼molar (Na2OþK2O)/Al2O3]. This is the first experimental demonstration that peralkaline felsic derivatives can be produced by low-pressure fractional crystallization of metaluminous mafic magmas. Our results show that the pantelleritic magmas of basalt–trachyte–rhyolite igneous suites require at least 95 wt % of parental basalt crystallization, consistent with trace element evidence. Redox conditions, through their effect on Fe–Ti oxide stabilities, control the final iron content of the evolving melt.

Description: Published

Description: 559- 588

Description: 2V. Struttura e sistema di alimentazione dei vulcani

Description: JCR Journal

Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©: The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy.

Description: Mud volcanoes are geological systems often characterized by elevated fluid pressures at depth deviating from hydrostatic conditions. This near-critical state makes mud volcanoes particularly sensitive to external forcing induced by natural or man-made perturbations. We used the Nirano mud volcanic field as a natural laboratory to test pre- and post-seismic effects generated by distant earthquakes.We first characterized the subsurface structure of the Nirano mud volcanic field with a geoelectrical study. Next, we deployed a broad-band seismic station in the area to understand the typical seismic signal generated by the mud volcano. Seismic records show a background noise below 2 s, sometimes interrupted by pulses of drumbeatlike high-frequency signals lasting from several minutes to hours. To date this is the first observation of drumbeat signal observed in mud volcanoes. In 2013 June we recorded a M4.7 earthquake, that occurred approximately 60 km far from our seismic station. According to empirical estimations the Nirano mud volcanic field should not have been affected by the M4.7 earthquake. Yet, before the seismic event we recorded an increasing amplitude of the signal in the 10–20 Hz frequency band. The signal emerged approximately two hours before the earthquake and lasted for about three hours. Our statistical analysis suggests the presence of a possible precursory signal about 10 min before the earthquake.

Description: Published

Description: 907–917

Description: 7A. Geofisica per il monitoraggio ambientale

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Although there are many methods for investigating tectonic structures, many faults remain hidden, and they can endanger the life and property of people living along them. The slopes of volcanoes are covered with such hidden faults, near which strong earthquakes and gas releases can appear. Revealing hidden faults can therefore contribute significantly to the protection of people living in volcanic areas. In the study, seven different techniques were used for making measurements of in-soil radon concentrations in order to search for hidden faults on the SE flank of the Mt. Etna volcano. These reported methods had previously been proved to be useful tools for investigating fault structures. The main aim of the experiment presented here was to evaluate the usability of these methods in the geological conditions of the Mt. Etna region, and to find the best place for continual radon monitoring using a permanent station in the near future.

Description: Published

Description: 70-73

Description: 5V. Sorveglianza vulcanica ed emergenze

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: In this study we applied a multidisciplinary approach, coupling geophysical and geochemical measurements, to unveil the provenance of 170 obsidian flakes, collected on the volcanic island of Ustica (Sicily). On this island there are some prehistoric settlements dated from the Neolithic to the Middle Bronze Age. Despite not having geological outcrops of obsidian rocks, the countryside of Ustica is rich in fragments of this volcanic glass, imported from other source areas. The study of obsidian findings was carried out first through visual observations and density measurements. At least two different obsidian families have been distinguished, probably imported from Lipari and Pantelleria islands. Analysing the magnetic properties of the samples, these two main sources were confirmed, but the possibility of other provenances was inferred. Finally, we characterized the geochemical signature of the Ustica obsidians by performing microchemical analyses through electron microprobe (EMPA) and laser ablation (LA–ICP–MS). The results were compared with literature data, confirming the presence of the Lipari and Pantelleria sources (Sicily) and indicating for the first time in this part of Italy a third provenance from Palmarola island (Latium). Our results shed new light on the commercial exchanges in the peri-Tyrrhenian area during the prehistoric age.

Description: Published

Description: 435–454

Description: 1SR. TERREMOTI - Servizi e ricerca per la Società

Description: 2SR. VULCANI - Servizi e ricerca per la Società

Description: 3SR. AMBIENTE - Servizi e ricerca per la Società

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: Our study area is a ~50 km long section of the central-southern Apennines tectonic belt that includes the Pergola-Melandro basin and the Agri valley. This region is located between the areas interested by the 1980 Ms=6.9 Irpinia and the 1857 M=7.0 Val d’Agri earthquakes and is characterized by rare historical events and very low and sparse background seismicity. In this study we provide new seismological and geophysical information to identify the characteristics of the seismotectonics in the area, as the prevailing faulting mechanism and the fit of local to regional stress field. These data concern focal mechanisms from waveform modeling and P-wave polarities, analyses of borehole breakouts and detailed investigation of two seismic sequences. All the data cover a significantly broad range of magnitudes and depths and suggest that no important local variation in stress orientation seems to affect this area, which shows a NE-SW direction of extension consistent with that regionally observed in Southern Italy. Such local homogeneity in the stress field pattern is peculiar of the study area; the variations of orientation and/or type of stress observed in the northern Apennines or only less than 100 km toward the northwest within the same tectonic belt are absent here. Furthermore, there is a suggestion for a northeastward sense of dip of the seismogenic faults in the region, an interesting constraint to the characterization of seismic sources

Description: Published

Description: 575-583

Description: 2T. Sorgente Sismica

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Metal-catalysed CO2 hydrogenation is considered a source of methane in serpentinized (hydrated) igneous rocks and a fundamental abiotic process germane to the origin of life. Iron, nickel, chromium and cobalt are the catalysts typically employed in hydrothermal simulation experiments to obtain methane at temperatures 〉200°C. However, land-based present-day serpentinization and abiotic gas apparently develop below 100°C, down to approximately 40–50°C. Here, we document considerable methane production in thirteen CO2 hydrogenation experiments performed in a closed dry system, from 20 to 90°C and atmospheric pressure, over 0.9–122 days, using concentrations of non-pretreated ruthenium equivalent to those occurring in chromitites in ophiolites or igneous complexes (from 0.4 to 76 mg of Ru, equivalent to the amount occurring approximately in 0.4–760 kg of chromitite). Methane production increased with time and temperature, reaching approximately 87 mg CH4 per gram of Ru after 30 days (2.9 mgCH4/gru/day) at 90°C. At room temperature, CH4 production rate was approximately three orders of magnitude lower (0.003 mgCH4/gru/day). We report the first stable carbon and hydrogen isotope ratios of abiotic CH4 generated below 100°C. Using initial d13CCO2 of -40&, we obtained room temperature d13CCH4 values as 13C depleted as 142&. With time and temperature, the C-isotope separation between CO2 and CH4 decreased significantly and the final d13CCH4 values approached that of initial d13CCO2. The presence of minor amounts of C2-C6 hydrocarbons is consistent with observations in natural settings. Comparative experiments at the same temperatures with iron and nichel catalysts did not generate CH4. Ru-enriched chromitites could potentially generate methane at low temperatures on Earth and on other planets.

Description: Published

Description: 438–452

Description: 7A. Geofisica di esplorazione

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: In this paper, we present a method for handling uncertainties in the determination of the source parameters of earthquakes from spectral data. We propose a robust framework for estimating earthquake source parameters and relative uncertainties, which are propagated down to the estimation of basic seismic parameters of interest such as the seismic moment, the moment magnitude, the source size and the static stress drop. In practice, we put together a Bayesian approach for model parameter estimation and a weighted statistical mixing of multiple solutions obtained from a network of instruments, providing a useful framework for extracting meaningful data from intrinsically uncertain data sets. The Bayesian approach used to estimate the source spectra parameters is a simple but powerful mechanism for non-linear model fitting, providing also the opportunity to naturally propagate uncertainties and to assess the quality and uniqueness of the solution. Another important added value of such an approach is the possibility of integrating information from the expertise of seismologists. Such data can be encoded in a prior state of information that is then updated with the information provided by seismological data. The performance of the proposed approach is demonstrated analysing data from the 1909 April 23 earthquake occurred near Benavente (Portugal).

Description: Published

Description: 691-701

Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva

Description: JCR Journal

Description: open

Description: Permafrost presence is determined by a complex interaction of climatic, topographic, and ecological conditions operating over long time scales. In particular, vegetation and organic layer characteristics may act to protect permafrost in regions with a mean annual air temperature (MAAT) above 0 °C. In this study, we document the presence of residual permafrost plateaus on the western Kenai Peninsula lowlands of southcentral Alaska, a region with a MAAT of 1.5 ± 1 °C (1981 to 2010). Continuous ground temperature measurements between 16 September 2012 and 15 September 2015, using calibrated thermistor strings, documented the presence of warm permafrost (−0.04 to −0.08 °C). Field measurements (probing) on several plateau features during the fall of 2015 showed that the depth to the permafrost table averaged 1.48 m but was as shallow as 0.53 m. Late winter surveys (drilling, coring, and GPR) in 2016 showed that the average seasonally frozen ground thickness was 0.45 m, overlying a talik above the permafrost table. Measured permafrost thickness ranged from 0.33 to 〉 6.90 m. Manual interpretation of historic aerial photography acquired in 1950 indicates that residual permafrost plateaus covered 920 ha as mapped across portions of four wetland complexes encompassing 4810 ha. However, between 1950 and ca. 2010, permafrost plateau extent decreased by 60 %, with lateral feature degradation accounting for 85 % of the reduction in area. Permafrost loss on the Kenai Peninsula is likely associated with a warming climate, wildfires that remove the protective forest and organic layer cover, groundwater flow at depth, and lateral heat transfer from wetland surface waters in the summer. Better understanding the resilience and vulnerability of ecosystem-protected permafrost is critical for mapping and predicting future permafrost extent and degradation across all permafrost regions that are currently warming. Further work should focus on reconstructing permafrost history in southcentral Alaska as well as additional contemporary observations of these ecosystem-protected permafrost sites lying south of the regions with relatively stable permafrost.

Description: Whereas ice cores from high-accumulation sites in coastal Antarctica clearly demonstrate annual layering, it is debated whether a seasonal signal is also preserved in ice cores from lower-accumulation sites further inland and particularly on the East Antarctic Plateau. In this study, we examine 5 m of early Holocene ice from the Dome Fuji (DF) ice core at a high temporal resolution by continuous flow analysis. The ice was continuously analysed for concentrations of dust, sodium, ammonium, liquid conductivity, and water isotopic composition. Furthermore, a dielectric profiling was performed on the solid ice. In most of the analysed ice, the multi-parameter impurity data set appears to resolve the seasonal variability although the identification of annual layers is not always unambiguous. The study thus provides information on the snow accumulation process in central East Antarctica. A layer counting based on the same principles as those previously applied to the NGRIP (North Greenland Ice core Project) and the Antarctic EPICA (European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) Dronning Maud Land (EDML) ice cores leads to a mean annual layer thickness for the DF ice of 3.0 ± 0.3 cm that compares well to existing estimates. The measured DF section is linked to the EDML ice core through a characteristic pattern of three significant acidity peaks that are present in both cores. The corresponding section of the EDML ice core has recently been dated by annual layer counting and the number of years identified independently in the two cores agree within error estimates. We therefore conclude that, to first order, the annual signal is preserved in this section of the DF core. This case study demonstrates the feasibility of determining annually deposited strata on the central East Antarctic Plateau. It also opens the possibility of resolving annual layers in the Eemian section of Antarctic ice cores where the accumulation is estimated to have been greater than in the Holocene. © Author(s) 2015.

Description: The widely used detailed SNOWPACK model has undergone constant development over the years. A notable recent extension is the introduction of a Richards equation (RE) solver as an alternative for the bucket-type approach for describing water transport in the snow and soil layers. In addition, continuous updates of snow settling and new snow density parameterizations have changed model behavior. This study presents a detailed evaluation of model performance against a comprehensive multiyear data set from Weissfluhjoch near Davos, Switzerland. The data set is collected by automatic meteorological and snowpack measurements and manual snow profiles. During the main winter season, snow height (RMSE: 〈 4.2 cm), snow water equivalent (SWE, RMSE: 〈 40 mm w.e.), snow temperature distributions (typical deviation with measurements: 〈 1.0 °C) and snow density (typical deviation with observations: 〈 50 kg m−3) as well as their temporal evolution are well simulated in the model and the influence of the two water transport schemes is small. The RE approach reproduces internal differences over capillary barriers but fails to predict enough grain growth since the growth routines have been calibrated using the bucket scheme in the original SNOWPACK model. However, the agreement in both density and grain size is sufficient to parameterize the hydraulic properties successfully. In the melt season, a pronounced underestimation of typically 200 mm w.e. in SWE is found. The discrepancies between the simulations and the field data are generally larger than the differences between the two water transport schemes. Nevertheless, the detailed comparison of the internal snowpack structure shows that the timing of internal temperature and water dynamics is adequately and better represented with the new RE approach when compared to the conventional bucket scheme. On the contrary, the progress of the meltwater front in the snowpack as detected by radar and the temporal evolution of the vertical distribution of melt forms in manually observed snow profiles do not support this conclusion. This discrepancy suggests that the implementation of RE partly mimics preferential flow effects.

Description: This paper describes ESM-SnowMIP, an international coordinated modelling effort to evaluate current snow schemes, including snow schemes that are included in Earth system models, in a wide variety of settings against local and global observations. The project aims to identify crucial processes and characteristics that need to be improved in snow models in the context of local- and global-scale modelling. A further objective of ESM-SnowMIP is to better quantify snow-related feedbacks in the Earth system. Although it is not part of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), ESM-SnowMIP is tightly linked to the CMIP6-endorsed Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison (LS3MIP).

Description: In this study, we present results obtained from modelling the mid-Pliocene warm period using the Community Earth System Models (COSMOS, version: COSMOS-landveg r2413, 2009) with the two different sets of boundary conditions prescribed for the two phases of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). Boundary conditions, model forcing, and modelling methodology of the two phases of PlioMIP, tagged PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2,differ considerably in palaeogeography, in particular with regards to the state of ocean gateways, ice-masks, vegetation and topography. Further differences between model setups as suggested for PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2 consider updates to the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), that is specified as 405 and 400 parts per million by volume (ppmv) for PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2, respectively, as well as minor differences in the concentrations of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) due to changes in the protocol of the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP) from phase 3 to phase 4. With this manuscript, we bridge the gap between our contributions to PlioMIP1 (Stepanek and Lohmann, 2012) and PlioMIP2 (Stepanek et al., 2019). We highlight some of the effects that differences in the chosen Mid-Pliocene model setup (PlioMIP2 vs. PlioMIP1) have on the climate state as derived with the COSMOS, as this information will be valuable in the framework of the model-model and model-data-comparison within PlioMIP2. We evaluate the model sensitivity to improved mid-Pliocene boundary conditions using PlioMIP’s core mid-Pliocene experiments for PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2, and present further simulations where we test model sensitivity to variations in palaeogeography, orbit and concentration of CO2. Firstly,we highlight major changes in boundary conditions from PlioMIP1 to PlioMIP2 and also the limitations recorded from the initial effort. The results derived from of our simulations show that COSMOS simulates a mid-Pliocene climate state that is 0.08 K colder in PlioMIP2, if compared to PlioMIP1. On one hand, high-latitude warming,which is supported by proxy evidence of the mid-Pliocene, is underestimated in simulations of both PlioMIP1 andPlioMIP2. On the other hand, spatial variations in surface air temperature (SAT), sea surface temperature (SST) as well as the distribution of sea ice suggest improvement of simulated SAT and SST in PlioMIP2 if employing the updated palaeogeography. The PlioMIP2 Mid-Pliocene simulation produces warmer SSTs in the Arctic and North Atlantic Ocean than derived from the respective PlioMIP1 climate state. The difference in prescribed CO2accountsfor 1.1 K of warming in the Arctic, leading to an ice-free summer in the PlioMIP1 simulation, and a quasi-ice-free summer in PlioMIP2. Furthermore, employing different orbital forcings in simulating the Mid-Pliocene lead to pronounced annual and seasonal variations, which is not accounted for by marine and terrestrial reconstruction of the time-slice.

Description: The Antarctic temperature changes over the past millennia remain more uncertain than in many other continental regions. This has several origins: (1) the number of high-resolution ice cores is small, in particular on the East Antarctic plateau and in some coastal areas in East Antarctica; (2) the short and spatially sparse instrumental records limit the calibration period for reconstructions and the assessment of the methodologies; (3) the link between isotope records from ice cores and local climate is usually complex and dependent on the spatial scales and timescales investigated. Here, we use climate model results, pseudo-proxy experiments and data assimilation experiments to assess the potential for reconstructing the Antarctic temperature over the last 2 millennia based on a new database of stable oxygen isotopes in ice cores compiled in the frame- work of Antarctica2k (Stenni et al., 2017). The well-known covariance between δ18O and temperature is reproduced in the two isotope-enabled models used (ECHAM5/MPI-OM and ECHAM5-wiso), but is generally weak over the different Antarctic regions, limiting the skill of the reconstructions. Furthermore, the strength of the link displays large variations over the past millennium, further affecting the potential skill of temperature reconstructions based on statistical methods which rely on the assumption that the last decades are a good estimate for longer temperature reconstructions. Using a data assimilation technique allows, in theory, for changes in the δ18O–temperature link through time and space to be taken into account. Pseudoproxy experiments confirm the benefits of using data assimilation methods instead of statistical methods that provide reconstructions with unrealistic variances in some Antarctic subregions. They also confirm that the relatively weak link between both variables leads to a limited potential for reconstructing temperature based on δ18O. However, the reconstruction skill is higher and more uniform among reconstruction methods when the reconstruction target is the Antarctic as a whole rather than smaller Antarctic subregions. This consistency between the methods at the large scale is also observed when reconstructing temperature based on the real δ18O regional composites of Stenni et al. (2017). In this case, temperature reconstructions based on data assimilation confirm the long-term cooling over Antarctica during the last millennium, and the later onset of anthropogenic warming compared with the simulations without data assimilation, which is especially visible in West Antarctica. Data assimilation also allows for models and direct observations to be reconciled by reproducing the east–west contrast in the recent temperature trends. This recent warming pattern is likely mostly driven by internal variability given the large spread of individual Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP)/Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) model realizations in simulating it. As in the pseudoproxy framework, the reconstruction methods perform differently at the subregional scale, especially in terms of the variance of the time series produced. While the potential benefits of using a data assimilation method instead of a statistical method have been highlighted in a pseudoproxy framework, the instrumental series are too short to confirm this in a realistic setup.

Description: A still open question is how equilibrium warming in response to increasing radiative forcing (equilibrium climate sensitivity S) is depending on background climate. We here bring paleo-data based evidence on the state-dependency of S by using CO2 proxy data together with model-based reconstruction of land ice albedo over the last 5 million years. We find that the land-ice albedo forcing depends non-linearly on the background climate, while any non-linearity of CO2 radiative forcings depends on the CO2 data set used. Over the last 2 million years the combined S_[CO2,LI] from CO2 and land-ice albedo forcing is state-dependent and during interglacials at least twice as high as during glacials, thus CO2 doubling leads to an interglacial warming of 5 K. In the Pliocene data uncertainties prevents a well-supported calculation, but our analysis suggests that S_[CO2,LI] during a land-ice free northern hemisphere was smaller than during interglacials of the Pleistocene.

Description: Plankton fractions from a saline lake in Argentina were studied using a combined trophic marker approach. A strong seasonality of biomarkers was characteristic for the different fractions, particularly the variations in the 18:4(n 2 3) and 20:4(n 2 3) fatty acids and the d13C values. The primary production in the lake was mainly driven by diatoms, reflected by the close relation of d13C, chlorophyll a and diatom fatty acid markers. The combined approach of d13C and 20:4(n 2 3) enabled processes in the lipid metabolism of the copepod Boeckella poopoensis to be inferred. The polyunsaturated fatty acid 22:6(n 2 3) and the d15N separated the trophic levels in this food web with copepods at higher trophic level. Nutritional stress and omnivory of B. poopoensis partially explained the d15N variations in mesozooplankton. The d15N signature was probably driven by cyanobacteria in the microplankton and by microbial processes in the nanoplankton fraction. Warmer temperatures may favour the saturation of microalgae fatty acids and the abundance of plankton groups richer in saturated fatty acids. The tendency to unsaturation in mesozooplankton at colder temperatures was probably influenced by diet and metabolic requirements. Future temperature increase and eutrophication-like processes may increase the importance of cyanobacterial and bacterial markers under climate change scenarios.

Description: Thermokarst lakes are typical features of the northern permafrost ecosystems, and play an important role in the thermal exchange between atmosphere and subsurface. The objective of this study is to describe the main thermal processes of the lakes and to quantify the heat exchange with the underlying sediments. The thermal regimes of five lakes located within the continuous permafrost zone of northern Siberia (Lena River Delta) were investigated using hourly water temperature and water level records covering a 3-year period (2009–2012), together with bathymetric survey data. The lakes included thermokarst lakes located on Holocene river terraces that may be connected to Lena River water during spring flooding, and a thermokarst lake located on deposits of the Pleistocene Ice Complex. Lakes were covered by ice up to 2 m thick that persisted for more than 7 months of the year, from October until about mid-June. Lake-bottom temperatures increased at the start of the ice-covered period due to upward-directed heat flux from the underlying thawed sediment. Prior to ice break-up, solar radiation effectively warmed the water beneath the ice cover and induced convective mixing. Ice break-up started at the beginning of June and lasted until the middle or end of June. Mixing occurred within the entire water column from the start of ice break-up and continued during the ice-free periods, as confirmed by the Wedderburn numbers, a quantitative measure of the balance between wind mixing and stratification that is important for describing the biogeochemical cycles of lakes. The lake thermal regime was modeled numerically using the FLake model. The model demonstrated good agreement with observations with regard to the mean lake temperature, with a good reproduction of the summer stratification during the ice-free period, but poor agreement during the ice-covered period. Modeled sensitivity to lake depth demonstrated that lakes in this climatic zone with mean depths 〉 5 m develop continuous stratification in summer for at least 1 month. The modeled vertical heat flux across the bottom sediment tends towards an annual mean of zero, with maximum downward fluxes of about 5 W m−2 in summer and with heat released back into the water column at a rate of less than 1 W m−2 during the ice-covered period. The lakes are shown to be efficient heat absorbers and effectively distribute the heat through mixing. Monthly bottom water temperatures during the ice-free period range up to 15 °C and are therefore higher than the associated monthly air or ground temperatures in the surrounding frozen permafrost landscape. The investigated lakes remain unfrozen at depth, with mean annual lake-bottom temperatures of between 2.7 and 4 °C.

Description: Global warming and ocean acidification are among the most important stressors for aquatic ecosystems in the future. To investigate their direct and indirect effects on a near-natural plankton community, a multiple-stressor approach is needed. Hence, we set up mesocosms in a full-factorial design to study the effects of both warming and high CO2 on a Baltic Sea autumn plankton community, concentrating on the impacts on microzooplankton (MZP). MZP abundance, biomass, and species composition were analysed over the course of the experiment. We observed that warming led to a reduced time-lag between the phytoplankton bloom and an MZP biomass maximum. MZP showed a significantly higher growth rate and an earlier biomass peak in the warm treatments while the biomass maximum was not affected. Increased pCO2 did not result in any significant effects on MZP biomass, growth rate, or species composition irrespective of the temperature, nor did we observe any significant interactions between CO2 and temperature. We attribute this to the high tolerance of this estuarine plankton community to fluctuations in pCO2, often resulting in CO2 concentrations higher than the predicted end-of-century concentration for open oceans. In contrast, warming can be expected to directly affect MZP and strengthen its coupling with phytoplankton by enhancing its grazing pressure.

Description: Ice-wedge polygons are common features of lowland tundra in the continuous permafrost zone and prone to rapid degradation through melting of ground ice. There are many interrelated processes involved in ice-wedge thermokarst and it is a major challenge to quantify their influence on the stability of the permafrost underlying the landscape. In this study we used a numerical modelling approach to investigate the degradation of ice wedges with a focus on the influence of hydrological conditions. Our study area was Samoylov Island in the Lena River delta of northern Siberia, for which we had in situ measurements to evaluate the model. The tailored version of the CryoGrid 3 land surface model was capable of simulating the changing microtopography of polygonal tundra and also regarded lateral fluxes of heat, water, and snow. We demonstrated that the approach is capable of simulating ice-wedge degradation and the associated transition from a low-centred to a high-centred polygonal microtopography. The model simulations showed ice-wedge degradation under recent climatic conditions of the study area, irrespective of hydrological conditions. However, we found that wetter conditions lead to an earlier onset of degradation and cause more rapid ground subsidence. We set our findings in correspondence to observed types of ice-wedge polygons in the study area and hypothesized on remaining discrepancies between modelled and observed ice-wedge thermokarst activity. Our quantitative approach provides a valuable complement to previous, more qualitative and conceptual, descriptions of the possible pathways of ice-wedge polygon evolution. We concluded that our study is a blueprint for investigating thermokarst landforms and marks a step forward in understanding the complex interrelationships between various processes shaping ice-rich permafrost landscapes.

Description: Warming of the Arctic led to an increase in permafrost temperatures by about 0.3 �C during the last decade. Permafrost warming is associated with increasing sediment water content, permeability, and diffusivity and could in the long term alter microbial community composition and abundance even before permafrost thaws. We studied the long-term effect (up to 2500 years) of submarine permafrost warming on microbial communities along an onshore–offshore transect on the Siberian Arctic Shelf displaying a natural temperature gradient of more than 10 �C. We analysed the in situ development of bacterial abundance and community composition through total cell counts (TCCs), quantitative PCR of bacterial gene abundance, and amplicon sequencing and correlated the microbial community data with temperature, pore water chemistry, and sediment physicochemical parameters. On timescales of centuries, permafrost warming coincided with an overall decreasing microbial abundance, whereas millennia after warming microbial abundance was similar to cold onshore permafrost. In addition, the dissolved organic carbon content of all cores was lowest in submarine permafrost after millennial-scale warming. Based on correlation analysis, TCC, unlike bacterial gene abundance, showed a significant rank-based negative correlation with increasing temperature, while bacterial gene copy numbers showed a strong negative correlation with salinity. Bacterial community composition correlated only weakly with temperature but strongly with the pore water stable isotopes �18O and �D, as well as with depth. The bacterial community showed substantial spatial variation and an overall dominance of Actinobacteria, Chloroflexi, Firmicutes, Gemmatimonadetes, and Proteobacteria, which are amongst the microbial taxa that were also found to be active in other frozen permafrost environments. We suggest that, millennia after permafrost warming by over 10 �C, microbial community composition and abundance show some indications for proliferation but mainly reflect the sedimentation history and paleoenvironment and not a direct effect through warming.

Description: Author Posting. © Crown Copyright, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of Oxford University Press for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Journal International 204 (2016): 1-20, doi:10.1093/gji/ggv416.

Description: The Canada Basin and the southern Alpha-Mendeleev ridge complex underlie a significant proportion of the Arctic Ocean, but the geology of this undrilled and mostly ice-covered frontier is poorly known. New information is encoded in seismic wide-angle reflections and refractions recorded with expendable sonobuoys between 2007 and 2011. Velocity–depth samples within the sedimentary succession are extracted from published analyses for 142 of these records obtained at irregularly spaced stations across an area of 1.9E + 06 km2. The samples are modelled at regional, subregional and station-specific scales using an exponential function of inverse velocity versus depth with regionally representative parameters determined through numerical regression. With this approach, smooth, non-oscillatory velocity–depth profiles can be generated for any desired location in the study area, even where the measurement density is low. Practical application is demonstrated with a map of sedimentary thickness, derived from seismic reflection horizons interpreted in the time domain and depth converted using the velocity–depth profiles for each seismic trace. A thickness of 12–13 km is present beneath both the upper Mackenzie fan and the middle slope off of Alaska, but the sedimentary prism thins more gradually outboard of the latter region. Mapping of the observed-to-predicted velocities reveals coherent geospatial trends associated with five subregions: the Mackenzie fan; the continental slopes beyond the Mackenzie fan; the abyssal plain; the southwestern Canada Basin; and, the Alpha-Mendeleev magnetic domain. Comparison of the subregional velocity–depth models with published borehole data, and interpretation of the station-specific best-fitting model parameters, suggests that sandstone is not a predominant lithology in any of the five subregions. However, the bulk sand-to-shale ratio likely increases towards the Mackenzie fan, and the model for this subregion compares favourably with borehole data for Miocene turbidites in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The station-specific results also indicate that Quaternary sediments coarsen towards the Beaufort-Mackenzie and Banks Island margins in a manner that is consistent with the variable history of Laurentide Ice Sheet advance documented for these margins. Lithological factors do not fully account for the elevated velocity–depth trends that are associated with the southwestern Canada Basin and the Alpha-Mendeleev magnetic domain. Accelerated porosity reduction due to elevated palaeo-heat flow is inferred for these regions, which may be related to the underlying crustal types or possibly volcanic intrusion of the sedimentary succession. Beyond exploring the variation of an important physical property in the Arctic Ocean basin, this study provides comparative reference for global studies of seismic velocity, burial history, sedimentary compaction, seismic inversion and overpressure prediction, particularly in mudrock-dominated successions.