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  • Blackwell Publishing Ltd
  • Wiley-Blackwell
  • 2015-2019  (71)
  • 1975-1979  (51,668)
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  • 11
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    Assessing annual global M6+ seismicity forecasts (2015)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We consider a seismicity forecast experiment conducted during the last 4 yr. At the beginning of each year, three models make a 1-yr forecast of the distribution of large earthquakes everywhere on the Earth. The forecasts are generated and the observations are collected in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). We apply CSEP likelihood measures of consistency and comparison to see how well the forecasts match the observations, and we compare results from some intuitive reference models. These results illustrate some undesirable properties of the consistency tests: the tests can be extremely sensitive to only a few earthquakes, and yet insensitive to seemingly obvious flaws—a na ̈ıve hypothesis that large earthquakes are equally likely everywhere is not always rejected. The results also suggest that one should check the assumptions of the so-called T and W comparison tests, and we illustrate some methods to do so. As an extension of model assessment, we explore strategies to combine forecasts, and we discuss the implications for operational earthquake forecasting. Finally, we make suggestions for the next generation of global seismicity forecast experiments.
    Description: Published
    Description: 422-431
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: probabilistic forecasting ; statistical seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 12
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    The hydrological signature of a seismogenic source: coseismic hydrological changes in response to the 1915 Fucino (Central Italy) earthquake (2015)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The M ∼ 7 1915 Fucino (Central Italy) earthquake represents one of the most destructive seismic events ever occurred in the Italian Peninsula. Several seismogenic faults have been proposed in the past decades as the source of the earthquake by means of different approaches and techniques that lead to a variety of speculations about the source mechanism and the fault location, often contrasting with one another. The 1915 earthquake produced a remarkable data set of 73 coseismic hydrological changes in the near and intermediate field that consist in variation of the flow of streams and springs, liquefaction, rise of water temperature and turbidity. In this paper, we study the coseismic water level changes induced by the 1915 earthquake in the near field to provide convincing clues on the geometry of the earthquake causative fault. We model the coseismic strain field induced by seventeen individual faults proposed through different approaches, and compare its pattern with the distribution of streamflow changes. We find: (i) clues on the most probable geometry of the earthquake causative fault. Best fits between modelled deformation and observed data are displayed by sources (derived by geological or seismological data) that share several distinctive features, as they are ∼135◦-striking, SW-dipping, 25–30-km-long normal faults located along the eastern side of the Fucino basin. These data point to the Serrone Fault and the Parasano Fault as the most likely causative structures and support the hypothesis that the coseismic ruptures observed in the field represented primary surface faulting. On the contrary, our calculations show that the Pescina Fault and the Ventrino Fault are secondary faults from the perspective of the hydrological response. Finally, one of the best scoring potential sources (from geological data) is a multifaulting system that considers the presence, in the central-western part of the basin, of fault splays synthetic and antithetic to the main seismogenic structures; therefore, we infer for these splays a possible active involvement in a 1915-like seismogenic process; (ii) evidence against a number of seismogenic structures that were previously associated with the earthquake. In particular, the plots of coseismic strain induced by sources uniquely derived by macroseismic or geodetic data prove to be inconsistent with the polarities of the hydrological signatures. Also, sources mainly characterized by reverse faulting and/or by right-lateral strike-slip component are discarded and (iii) as a final remark, we maintain that the study of the hydrological signatures of earthquake strain can offer an alternative tool in the investigation of the historical seismicity, to estimate the focal mechanism of major earthquakes capable of giving rise to a consistent data set of hydrological data.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1374-1388
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: 1915 Fucino earthquake ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 13
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    Discriminating among distinct source models of the 1908 Messina Straits earthquake by modelling intensity data through full wavefield seismograms (2015)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Macroseismic intensities are the only available data for most historical earthquakes and often represent the unique source of information for crucial events in the definition of seismic hazard. In this paper, we attempt at getting insight into source characteristics by reproducing the observed intensity field. As a test case, we study the source of 1908 Messina Straits earthquake ( M W = 7.1), by testing three distinct fault models deduced from the analysis of geodeticdata.Startingfromthestaticslipdistribution,wedevelop kinematicsourcemodelsfor the investigated fault and compute full waveform synthetic seismograms in a 1-D structural model, also accounting for anelastic attenuation. Then, we convert both computed peak- ground acceleration (PGA) and peak-ground velocity (PGV) to macroseismic intensity at 100 selected sites, by means of specific empirical relations for the Italian region. By comparing the original data separately with PGA- and PGV-based intensity fields, we discriminate among the tested faults and determine the best values for the investigated kinematic parameters of the source. We also perform a misfit analysis for the best source model, in order to investigate the dependence of the results on the selected parametrization. The results of the analysis indicate that among the tested models, the one characterized by an east-dipping fault, with strike- oriented NS slightly rotated clockwise, better explains the observed macroseismic field of the 1908 Messina Straits earthquake. Besides, the fracture nucleated at the southern end of the fault and ruptured northward, producing considerable directivity effects. This is in agreement with the published results obtained from the investigation of the historical seismograms. We alsodeterminerealisticvalues fortherupturevelocityand therise-time.Ourstudyconfirms the greatpotentialofthemacroseismicdata,demonstratingthattheycontainenoughinformationto constrain important characteristics of the fault, which can be retrieved by using complex source models and computing complete wavefield. Moreover, we also show that the simultaneous comparison of both PGA- and PGV-based synthetic macroseismic fields with the original intensities provides tighter constraints for discriminating among different source models, with respect to what attainable from each of them
    Description: Published
    Description: 164-173
    Description: 4T. Fisica dei terremoti e scenari cosismici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Earthquake ground motions; Earthquake source observations. ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 14
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    Numerical evidences enabling to reconcile gravity and height changes in volcanic areas (2015)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Gravity and height changes, reflecting magma accumulation in subsurface chambers, are evaluated using Finite Element models in order to resolve controversial relationships observed in some volcanic areas. When significant gravity changes occur without any significant deformation, or vice versa, it is often difficult, if not impossible, to jointly explain the observations using the popular Mogi model. Here we explore whether these discrepancies can be explained by magma compressibility and source geometry effects. Compression of resident magma and expansion of the chamber wall act concurrently to accommodate newly added magma. Gravity-height ratios are found to mainly depend on: (i) geometry of the sources, which control the volume expansion of the chamber, (ii) magma compressibility, which affects the contraction of the magma resident in the chamber, and (iii) depth of the sources. Our numerical results show that, when magma compressibility and non-spherical sources are taken into account, significant gravity variations can, indeed, be successfully reconciled with negligible height changes. This may be the case at Etna volcano, where gravity changes (about 40 miuGal) without any significant deformation (below 5 cm) were observed during the 1994-1995 inflation period. The numerical results point to the accumulation of a 1.4x10^10 kg mass into an elongated source simulating a shallow storage region supplying the summit craters.
    Description: Published
    Description: 164-173
    Description: 4V. Vulcani e ambiente
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: numerical modeling, gravity and height changes ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.05. Gravity variations
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 15
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    On the present-day crustal stress, strain-rate fields and mantle anisotropy pattern of Italy (2015)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We present an up-to-date high resolution picture of the ongoing crustal deformation field of Italy, based on an extensive combination of permanent and non-permanent GPS observations carried out since 1994. In addition, we present an updated map of contemporary SHmax orientations computed by a multidisciplinary data set of well-constrained stress indicators, including both published results and novel analyses. The comparison of stress and geodetic strain-rates directions reveals that both patterns are near-parallel over a large part of the investigated area, highlighting that crustal stress and surface deformation are driven by the same mechanism. The comparison of the azimuthal patterns of surface strain and mantle deformation shows a modest correlation on the Alps and a low correlation along the Apennines chain and the Calabro-Peloritan Arc. Along the Apennines chain, this feature suggests the occurrence of significant strain partitioning and crust–mantle mechanical decoupling. Along the Calabro-Peloritan Arc, the apparent low correlation reflects a different mantle–crust mechanism of deformation to the ongoing subduction and rollback of the Ionian slab. In addition, the superposition of regional/local effects related to second-order sources (crustal lateral density changes, strength contrasts), which at regional/local scale modulate the crustal stress/strain-rate pattern, cannot be ruled out.
    Description: Published
    Description: 969-985
    Description: 1T. Geodinamica e interno della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Plate motions ; Seismic anisotropy ; Kinematics of crustal and mantle deformation ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 16
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    Seismic Q estimates in Umbria-Marche (central Italy): hints for the retrieval of a new attenuation law for seismic risk (2015)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In the Umbria Marche (Central Italy) region an important earthquake sequence occurred in 1997, characterized by nine earthquakes with magnitudes in the range between 5 and 6, that caused important damages and causalities. In the present paper we separately estimate intrinsic- and scattering- Q −1 parameters, using the classical MLTWA approach in the assumption of a half space model. The results clearly show that the attenuation parameters Qi −1 and Qs −1 are frequency dependent. This estimate is compared with other attenuation studies carried out in the same area, and with all the other MLTWA estimates obtained till now in other tectonic environments in the Earth. The bias introduced by the half space assumption is investigated through numerical solutions of the Energy Transport equation in the more realistic assumption of a heterogeneous crust overlying a transparent mantle, with a Moho located at a depth ranging between 35 and 45 km below the surface. The bias introduced by the half space assumption is significant only at high frequency. We finally show how the attenuation estimates, calculated with different techniques, lead to different PGA decay with distance relationships, using the well known and well proven Boore’s method. This last result indicates that care must be used in selecting the correct estimate of the attenuation parameters for seismic risk purposes. We also discuss the reason why MLTWA may be chosen among all the other available techniques, due to its intrinsic stability, to obtain the right attenuation parameters.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1370-1382
    Description: 4T. Fisica dei terremoti e scenari cosismici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Seismic attenuation ; scattering ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.09. Waves and wave analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 17
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    The seismogenic structure of the 2013–2014 Matese seismic sequence, Southern Italy: implication for the geometry of the Apennines active extensional belt (2015)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Seismological, geological and geodetic data have been integrated to characterize the seismogenic structure of the late 2013-early 2014 moderate energy (maximum local magnitude MLmax = 4.9) seismic sequence that struck the interior of the Matese Massif, part of the Southern Apennines active extensional belt. The sequence, heralded by a ML = 2.7 foreshock, was characterized by two main shocks with ML = 4.9 and ML = 4.2, respectively, which occurred at a depth of ∼17–18 km. The sequence was confined in the 10–20 km depth range, significantly deeper than the 1997–1998 sequence which occurred few km away on the northeastern side of the massif above ∼15 km depth. The depth distribution of the 2013–14 sequence is almost continuous, albeit a deeper (16–19 km) and a shallower (11–15 km) group of events can be distinguished, the former including the main shocks and the foreshock. The epicentral distribution formed a ∼10 km long NNW–SSE trending alignment, which almost parallels the surface trace of late Pliocene–Quaternary southwest-dipping normal faults with a poor evidence of current geological and geodetic deformation. We built an upper crustal model profile for the eastern Matese massif through integration of geological data, oil exploration well logs and seismic tomographic images. Projection of hypocentres on the profile suggests that the seismogenic volume falls mostly within the crystalline crust and subordinately within the Mesozoic sedimentary cover of Apulia, the underthrust foreland of the Southern Apennines fold and thrust belt. Geological data and the regional macroseismic field of the sequence suggest that the southwest-dipping nodal plane of the main shocks represents the rupture surface that we refer to here as the Matese fault. The major lithological discontinuity between crystalline and sedimentary rocks of Apulia likely confined upward the rupture extent of the Matese fault. Repeated coseismic failure represented by the deeper group of events in the sequence, activated in a passive fashion the overlying ∼11–15 km deep section of the upper crustal normal faults. We consider the southwest-dipping Matese fault representative of a poorly known type of seismogenic structures in the Southern Apennines, where extensional seismogenesis and geodetic strain accumulation occur more frequently on NE-dipping, shallower-rooted faults. This is the case of the Boiano Basin fault located on the northern side of the massif, to which the 1997–1998 sequence is related. The close proximity of the two types of seismogenic faults at the Matese Massif is related to the complex crustal architecture generated by the Pliocene–early Pleistocene contractional and transpressional tectonics.
    Description: Published
    Description: 823-837
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: partially_open
    Keywords: Seismicity and tectonics ; Continental tectonics: extensional ; Crustal structure ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.06. Surveys, measurements, and monitoring
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 18
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    Empirical conversion between teleseismic magnitudes (mb and Ms) and moment magnitude (Mw) at the Global, Euro-Mediterranean and Italian scale (2015)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We analysed the conversion problem between teleseismic magnitudes (Ms and mb) provided by the Seismological Bulletin of the International Seismological Centre and moment magni- tudes (Mw) provided by online moment tensor (MT) catalogues using the chi-square general orthogonal regression method (CSQ) that, differently from the ordinary least-square regres- sion method (OLS), accounts for the measurement errors of both the predictor and response variables. To account for the non-linearity of the relationships, we used two types of curvilin- ear models: (i) the exponential model (EXP), recently proposed by the authors of the Global Catalogue sponsored by the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation and (ii) a connected bilinear (CBL) model, similar to that proposed by Ekstro ̈m & Dziewonski, where two different linear trends at low and high magnitudes are connected by an arc of circle that preserves the continuity of the function and of its first derivative at the connecting points. For Ms, we found that the regression curves computed for a global data set (GBL) are likely to be biased by the incompleteness of global MT catalogues for Mw 〈5.0–5.5. In fact, the GBL curves deviate significantly from a similar regression curve computed for a Euro-Mediterranean data set (MED) integrated with the data provided by two regional MT catalogues including many more events with Mw 〈 5.0–5.5. The GLB regression curves overestimate the Mw proxies computed from Ms up to 0.5 magnitude units. Hence for computing Mw proxies at the global scale of Ms ≤ 5.5, we suggest to adopt the coefficients obtained from the MED regression. The analysis of the frequency–magnitude relationship of the resulting Mw proxy catalogues confirms the validity of this choice as the behaviour of b-value as a function of cut-off magnitude of the GBL data set is much more stable using such approach. The incompleteness of Mw’s provided from MT global catalogues also affects the mb GBL data set but in this case the use of the CSQ regression method, in place of the OLS, mitigates the bias and then, at low magnitudes, the EXP regression curve computed from the more complete MED data set almost coincides with that computed from the GBL data set. Our results also indicate that the slope at low magnitudes of the Mw–Ms relationship is substantially consistent with the hypothesized theoretical value of 2/3 for Ms 〈 5.0 while the slope of the Mw–mb relationship at high magnitudes probably reaches the theoretically expected value of 2 only in the proximity of the upper limit of mb determinations in our data set (mb = 7.2).
    Description: Published
    Description: 805–828
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Earthquake source observations ; Statistical seismology ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.02. Seismological data
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 19
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    Comment on ‘Are the source models of the M 7.1 1908 Messina Straits earthquake reliable? Insights from a novel inversion and sensitivity analysis of levelling data’ by M. Aloisi, V. Bruno, F. Cannav ` o, L. Ferranti, M. Mattia, C. Monaco and M. Palano (2015)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In a recent paper, important issues were raised about the identification of the fault responsible for the 1908 Messina Straits earthquake. Starting with a reanalysis of the available original geodetic data, the authors aimed to demonstrate that both of the fault–plane orientations derived by the focal mechanism are compatible with the measurements. On these grounds, and based on geological considerations, they argued in favour of the Armo fault—a high-angled structure on the Calabrian side of the Messina Straits—as responsible for the 1908 earthquake. We indicate here that their analysis has some pitfalls that produce questionable results, and that render their conclusions unreliable. Moreover, especially when dealing with such old events and data, we consider that it is more prudent not to derive conclusions on the basis of a single data set, as all of the available information should be included in any interpretation. Indeed, when the joint results of the seismological and geodetic analyses are taken into account, a consistent and robust source model can be derived that indicates that a low-angle, east-dipping fault is the most likely source of this 1908 Messina Straits earthquake
    Description: Published
    Description: 1399-1402
    Description: 4T. Fisica dei terremoti e scenari cosismici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Earthquake source observations; Seismicity and tectonics; Europe ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 20
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    Deformation of the western Indian plate boundary: insights from differential and multi-aperture InSAR data inversion of the 2008, Baluchistan (Western Pakistan) seismic sequence (2015)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In this study,we use Differential Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (DInSAR) and multiaperture interferometry (MAI) to constrain the sources of the three largest events of the 2008 Baluchistan (western Pakistan) seismic sequence, namely two Mw 6.4 events only 12 hr apart and an Mw 5.7 event that occurred 40 d later. The sequence took place in the Quetta Syntaxis, the most seismically active region of Baluchistan, tectonically located between the colliding Indian Plate and the Afghan Block of the Eurasian Plate. Surface displacements estimated from ascending and descending ENVISAT ASAR acquisitions were used to derive elastic dislocation models for the sources of the two main events. The estimated slip distributions have peak values of 120 and 130 cm on a pair of almost parallel and near-vertical faults striking NW–SE, and of 50 cm and 60 cm on two high-angle faults striking NE–SW. Values up to 50 cm were found for the largest aftershock on an NE–SW fault located between the sources of the main shocks. The MAI measurements, with their high sensitivity to the north–south motion component, are crucial in this area to accurately describe the coseismic displacement field. Our results provide insight into the deformation style of the Quetta Syntaxis, suggesting that right-lateral slip released at shallow depths on large NW fault planes is compatible with left-lateral activation on smaller NE–SW faults.
    Description: Published
    Description: 25-39
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Radar interferometry ; Satellite geodesy ; Seismicity and Tectonics ; Continental margins: convergent ; Earthquake interaction, forecasting and prediction ; Earthquake source observation ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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