ALBERT

Description: The Global Ocean Data Analysis Project (GLODAP) is a synthesis effort providing regular compilations of surface-to-bottom ocean biogeochemical bottle data, with an emphasis on seawater inorganic carbon chemistry and related variables determined through chemical analysis of seawater samples. GLODAPv2.2022 is an update of the previous version, GLODAPv2.2021 (Lauvset et al., 2021). The major changes are as follows: data from 96 new cruises were added, data coverage was extended until 2021, and for the first time we performed secondary quality control on all sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) data. In addition, a number of changes were made to data included in GLODAPv2.2021. These changes affect specifically the SF6 data, which are now subjected to secondary quality control, and carbon data measured onboard the RV Knorr in the Indian Ocean in 1994–1995 which are now adjusted using CRM measurements made at the time. GLODAPv2.2022 includes measurements from almost 1.4 million water samples from the global oceans collected on 1085 cruises. The data for the now 13 GLODAP core variables (salinity, oxygen, nitrate, silicate, phosphate, dissolved inorganic carbon, total alkalinity, pH, CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113, CCl4, and SF6) have undergone extensive quality control with a focus on systematic evaluation of bias. The data are available in two formats: (i) as submitted by the data originator but converted to World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) exchange format and (ii) as a merged data product with adjustments applied to minimize bias. For the present annual update, adjustments for the 96 new cruises were derived by comparing those data with the data from the 989 quality controlled cruises in the GLODAPv2.2021 data product using crossover analysis. SF6 data from all cruises were evaluated by comparison with CFC-12 data measured on the same cruises. For nutrients and ocean carbon dioxide (CO2) chemistry comparisons to estimates based on empirical algorithms provided additional context for adjustment decisions. The adjustments that we applied are intended to remove potential biases from errors related to measurement, calibration, and data handling practices without removing known or likely time trends or variations in the variables evaluated. The compiled and adjusted data product is believed to be consistent to better than 0.005 in salinity, 1 % in oxygen, 2 % in nitrate, 2 % in silicate, 2 % in phosphate, 4 μmol kg-1 in dissolved inorganic carbon, 4 μmol kg-1 in total alkalinity, 0.01–0.02 in pH (depending on region), and 5 % in the halogenated transient tracers. The other variables included in the compilation, such as isotopic tracers and discrete CO2 fugacity (fCO2), were not subjected to bias comparison or adjustments.

Description: Perturbations in stratospheric aerosol due to explosive volcanic eruptions are a primary contributor to natural climate variability. Observations of stratospheric aerosol are available for the past decades, and information from ice cores has been used to derive estimates of stratospheric sulfur injections and aerosol optical depth over the Holocene (approximately 10 000 BP to present) and into the last glacial period, extending back to 60 000 BP. Tephra records of past volcanism, compared to ice cores, are less complete but extend much further into the past. To support model studies of the potential impacts of explosive volcanism on climate variability across timescales, we present here an ensemble reconstruction of volcanic stratospheric sulfur injection (VSSI) over the last 140 000 years that is based primarily on terrestrial and marine tephra records. VSSI values are computed as a simple function of eruption magnitude based on VSSI estimates from ice cores and satellite observations for identified eruptions. To correct for the incompleteness of the tephra record, we include stochastically generated synthetic eruptions assuming a constant background eruption frequency from the ice core Holocene record. While the reconstruction often differs from ice core estimates for specific eruptions due to uncertainties in the data used and reconstruction method, it shows good agreement with an ice-core-based VSSI reconstruction in terms of millennial-scale cumulative VSSI variations over the Holocene. The PalVol reconstruction provides a new basis to test the contributions of forced vs. unforced natural variability to the spectrum of climate and the mechanisms leading to abrupt transitions in the palaeoclimate record with low- to high-complexity climate models. The PalVol volcanic forcing reconstruction is available at https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/PalVolv1 (Toohey and Schindlbeck-Belo, 2023).

Description: The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is expected to launch in October 2023, with reporting obligations only. The scheme aims to ensure that European efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions do not induce so-called ‘carbon leakage’, which could occur if companies based in the EU relocate carbon-intensive production to countries with less ambitious climate standards or increase imports of carbon-intensive products to the EU. The mechanism will require companies importing certain products to the EU to offset embedded GHG emissions by purchasing CBAM certificates, thus ensuring that the carbon price of imported products is equivalent to that of products made by European producers under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). CBAM’s effectiveness and impact will be evaluated by the EU towards the end of its phase-in period. This evaluation will likely lead to adjustments in the mechanism’s design and will be followed closely by third countries considering the introduction of similar instruments. Economies and sectors dependent on exports to the EU will be both more exposed and vulnerable to the mechanism. In this policy brief we explore the views of stakeholders in South Africa, the EU’s largest trading partner in Africa, and consider measures necessary to ensure that CBAM addresses issues of justice and sustainability. In particular we identify three key recommendations for European policymakers.

Description: In mid-2021, the Republic of Nauru invoked a treaty provision at the International Seabed Authority known as the “two-year rule”. This effectively imposed a deadline on the Council of the International Seabed Authority to complete the elaboration and adoption of regulations for the exploitation of seabed minerals in the international seabed Area by 9 July 2023. Come 10 July 2023, the Authority would be presented with a new legal situation, whereby applications for mining activities may be submitted despite the absence of applicable regulations. There remain many outstanding matters in the negotiations and, considering that the regulations for exploitation must be adopted by consensus at the Council, it would appear that there is still a long and winding road ahead before an agreement is reached among member states – if this is at all possible. In light of this, the Council clearly needs to discuss what would occur if an application for the approval of a plan of work for exploitation activities happens to be submitted in the absence of applicable regulations. While the open legal questions that arise from the invocation of the two-year rule and upon the expiration of the deadline have been analysed elsewhere, this discussion paper examines the new political reality that the Authority finds itself in following the expiry of the deadline on 9 July 2023. Building on previous work by the author, this discussion paper attempts to underscore what is at stake at the Authority and explores how member states should approach this situation.

Description: This paper examines the challenges and prospects for Norway’s internal and external hydrogen strategy from around 2019, when Norway’s low-carbon hydrogen policies and activities began to gain traction. Norway has taken a technology-neutral approach to ‘green’ and ‘blue’ hydrogen technologies linked to reducing emissions. Two end-use sectors have been prioritised: maritime transport and energy-intensive industries. This strategy is based on Norway’s energy mix, industry structure/interest and research competence. While climate concerns appear as the predominant motivation underlying the Norwegian government’s low-carbon hydrogen strategy, industrial value creation is an additional key goal. Political priorities roughly align with actual funding priorities – there has been a massive increase in direct state aid to low-carbon hydrogen projects. Externally, Norway’s hydrogen strategy has potential significance for Europe, particularly for countries with maritime interests and high hydrogen import needs. However, Norway’s technology-neutral approach deviates from most other European countries. What Norway’s hydrogen strategy will mean for Europe remains to be seen – but its main interests concern the export of ‘blue’ hydrogen, with ‘green’ hydrogen primarily suited to meet domestic needs.

Description: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a surge in online communication, offering a unique burning glass perspective on the advantages of transferring formerly face-to-face conversations online as well as uncovering limitations of using technical applications to this end. These experiences are of great importance for the development of new e-participation instruments. So far, digital participation has failed to match the quality of real-world procedures. This paper discusses various emerging formats for online participation and their prerequisites. Blended participation models, in particular, appear to offer the most promise, enhancing negotiation processes between heterogenous social groups and facilitating responsive policy making.

Description: Die Corona-Pandemie hat die Nutzung der Online-Kommunikation stark befördert. Diese einzigartige experimentelle Situation machte die Möglichkeiten und Grenzen eines Wechsels der Kommunikationsmedien von Face-to-Face- in Online-Formate sichtbar. Die gesammelten Erfahrungen sind von erheblicher Bedeutung für die Entwicklung neuer Instrumente und Tools der Online-Beteiligung. Bislang allerdings sind Online-Beteiligungsformate den klassischen Offline-Beteiligungsformaten qualitativ nicht ebenbürtig. Daher werden in diesem Beitrag Ansatzpunkte für neue Formate und deren Grundvoraussetzungen diskutiert. Insbesondere Konzepte, welche sowohl Online- als auch Offline-Elemente verbinden (Blended Participation), erscheinen vielversprechend, da sie Austauschprozesse zwischen heterogenen sozialen Gruppen verbessern und die Responsivität des politischen Entscheidungsfindungsprozesses erhöhen können.

Description: The invocation of a treaty provision known as the "two-year rule" at the International Seabed Authority effectively placed a deadline on the Authority to complete the adoption of regulations for exploitation activities within two years, i.e. by 9 July 2023. However, it is not a hard "deadline" and it is likely that the Authority might miss this deadline. In recent months, the member states of the Authority have commenced discussions on what would happen if the deadline is missed (or the "what if scenario"). It follows that missing the deadline will give rise to a host of open legal questions. Building on previous work, this discussion paper attempts to provide some insights and possible interpretations to answer some of those questions.

Description: Stakeholder engagement has become increasingly important in energy research and is now even required by many funding agencies. Recent energy modelling projects also claim to involve stakeholders in the research process, although this is usually a process of one-way communication. This raises the question of the extent to which stakeholder involvement can have an impact on the modelling work, or whether it is often a case of mere ‘stakeholder-washing’ to meet funding requirements. In this discussion paper, I reflect on the experiences of stakeholder engagement in the EU Horizon 2020 project Sustainable Energy Transition Laboratory (SENTINEL), discuss the impacts of stakeholder participation on the energy modelling and unfold key challenges of involving stakeholders in energy modelling. I discuss that it worked well to engage stakeholders in defining user needs and discussing modelling results, while only a few stakeholders could be continuously involved through the project period. I also show that although the project successfully identified research questions and needs, the ability of models to answer questions was limited, and making models understandable to users remains a key challenge. Stakeholder engagement in SENTINEL was more than ‘stakeholder-washing’: it led to the identification of user needs and research questions, impacted scenario design, modelling improvements and the development of new modelling tools, and enabled critical reflection on modelling approaches and results. Finally, I make nine recommendations for future stakeholder engagement in energy (modelling) research that can enable mutual learning and enhance the legitimacy, relevance and impact of modelling. The further development of multi-stakeholder communities of practice around innovative energy modelling approaches can facilitate the transition to climate neutrality.

Description: This chapter provides a review of Germany’s ambitious import-oriented hydrogen strategy. It places the German policy approach in the context of its broader Energiewende (energy transition) strategy, aimed not only at a transition of Germany’s energy and industrial system to carbon neutrality by 2045 but also at the promotion of the German Energiewende approach abroad. The chapter begins by providing a short review of the German Energiewende policy legacy, relating it to it emerging hydrogen policy. On this basis, it provides a comprehensive review of Germany’s National Hydrogen Strategy (NHS) with a particular focus on its outward-oriented elements. It discusses Germany’s external hydrogen policy along the following five dimensions: political dialogue and diplomacy (both bilateral and multilateral); interventions aimed at building international supply chains; cooperation in research and innovation; capacity building and skill development; and activities aimed at addressing questions of sustainability. The chapter closes with discussion of key strengths and weaknesses of the strategy and highlights areas for its further development. While Germany's outward-oriented approach is identified as an important strength of the strategy, it could place greater emphasis on cooperation with partners in the EU. Moreover, collaboration with partner countries, both in- and outside the EU, should go beyond the relatively narrow focus on the promotion of hydrogen production and trade. Rather, it should take a broader perspective, aimed at promoting competitive and resilient industrial value chains centered on the EU and its policy and regulatory model. In particular, countries in the European Neighborhood represent important partners in such a strategy. Broadening the scope of cooperation with these countries will also increase the incentives for these countries to engage in partnership development. Finally, the chapter points out that Germany has taken an ambiguous stance on the role that blue hydrogen should play in a future hydrogen economy. While its strategy comes out strongly in favor of green hydrogen, it is also pursuing partnerships for the import of blue hydrogen. This has resulted in a mismatch. While analytical capacities and standardization-related activities are being advanced for green hydrogen production, the government also needs to clearly define its stance on blue hydrogen imports and develop the needed analytical tools and policy instruments for this purpose.

Description: The UK aims to become a leader in green industries by developing a competitive hydrogen industry, bringing new jobs, and revitalizing peripheral areas of the country. Hydrogen is also seen as an opportunity for the country to improve its energy security, as extracting fossil fuels is increasingly costly and unfeasible given the UK’s decarbonization goals. Its hydrogen strategy takes a “twin track” approach, that is, simultaneously promoting hydrogen from gas with carbon capture and hydrogen from low-carbon electricity. The UK strategy focuses on the importance of applying hydrogen to industry including chemicals, steel, and glass. However, its funding and research initiatives rather place an emphasis on developing local hydrogen markets by using hydrogen for heating and transportation. In the short term, the UK aims to develop “blue” hydrogen, which is perceived as cheaper, to replace household gas use. Funding for hydrogen innovation comes from the government, but revenue support is likely to be funded by levies on energy consumption. This approach seems unlikely to result in the green industrial leadership the government hopes to achieve. The unwillingness of the government to take strategic decisions on hydrogen types and uses means that its funding is stretched across different cases. And, while the UK participates in international standard-setting initiatives to better participate in global markets, it is not officially coordinating with or investing in hydrogen infrastructure that could connect it with Europe and thereby enable regional hydrogen trade. Given the rise in industrial policy measures including for hydrogen in the US and EU, the UK’s goal of becoming a major hydrogen player seems unlikely without a significant change in policy clarity and ambition.