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  • Articles  (48)
  • American Meteorological Society
  • Nature Publishing Group (NPG)
  • 2020-2024  (48)
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  • Articles  (48)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Droughts are widespread disasters worldwide and are concurrently influenced by multiple large-scale climate signals. This is particularly true over Japan, where drought has strong heterogeneity due to multiple factors such as monsoon, topography, and ocean circulations. Regional heterogeneity poses challenges for drought prediction and management. To overcome this difficulty, this study provides a comprehensive analysis of teleconnection between climate signals and homogeneous drought zones over Japan. First, droughts are characterized by simulated soil moisture from land surface model during 1958-2012. The Mclust toolkit, distinct empirical orthogonal function, and wavelet coherence analysis are used, respectively, to investigate the homogeneous drought zone, principal component of each homogeneous zone, and teleconnection between climate signals and drought. Results indicate that nine homogeneous drought zones with different characteristics are defined and quantified. Among these nine zones, zone-1 is dominated by extreme drought events. Zone-2 and zone-6 are typical representatives of spring droughts, while zone-7 is wet for most of the period. The Hokkaido region is divided into wetter zone-4 and drier zone-9. Zone-3, zone-5 and zone-8 are distinguished by the topography. The analyses also reveal almost nine zones have a high level of homogeneity, with more than 60% explained variance. Also, these nine zones are dominated by different large-scale climate signals: the Arctic Oscillation has the strongest impact on zone-1, zone-7, and zone-8; the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on zone-3, zone-4, and zone-6 is significant; zone-2 and zone-9 are both dominated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation; El Niño-Southern Oscillation dominates zone-5. The results will be valuable for drought management and drought prevention.
    Print ISSN: 1558-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1558-8432
    Topics: Geography , Physics
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2021-09-02
    Description: The provision of climate services has the potential to generate adaptive capacity and help coffee farmers become or remain profitable by integrating climate information in a risk-management framework. Yet, in order to achieve this goal, it is necessary to identify the local demand for climate information, the relationships between coffee yield and climate variables, farmers’ perceptions, and to examine the potential actions that can be realistically put in place by farmers at the local level. In this study, we assessed the climate information demands from coffee farmers and their perception on the climate impacts to coffee yield in the Samalá watershed in Guatemala. After co-identifying the related candidate climate predictors, we propose an objective, flexible forecast system for coffee yield based on precipitation. The system, known as NextGen, analyzes multiple historical climate drivers to identify candidate predictors, and provides both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts for the target season. To illustrate the approach, a NextGen implementation is conducted in the Samalá watershed in southwestern Guatemala. The results suggest that accumulated June-July-August precipitation provides the highest predictive skill associated with coffee yield for this region. In addition to a formal cross-validated skill assessment, retrospective forecasts for the period 1989-2009 were compared to agriculturalists’ perception on the climate impacts to coffee yield at the farm level. We conclude with examples of how demand-based climate service provision in this location can inform adaptation strategies like optimum shade, pest control, and fertilization schemes months in advance. These potential adaptation strategies were validated by local agricultural technicians at the study site.
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0434
    Topics: Geography , Physics
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2021-10-08
    Description: This paper investigates the value of weather and climate information at different timescales for decision making in the Tanzanian disaster risk reduction sector using non-monetary approaches. Interviews and surveys were conducted with institutions responsible for disaster management at national, regional and district level. A range of values were identified including: 1) making informed decisions for disaster preparedness, response, recovery and restoration related activities; 2) tailoring of directives and actions based on sectoral impacts; 3) identification of hotspot areas for diseases outbreaks and surplus food production. However, while, a number of guidelines, policies, acts and regulations for disaster risk reduction exist it is not clear how well they promote the use of weather and climate information across climate sensitive sectors. Nonetheless, we find that well-structured disaster risk reduction coordination across sectors and institutions from the national to district level exists, although there is a need for further development of integrated Early Warning Systems, and a common platform to evaluate effectiveness and usefulness of weather warnings and advisories. Key challenges to address in increasing the uptake of weather warnings and advisories include language barriers, limited dissemination to rural areas, and limited awareness of forecasts. Based on the findings of this study, we recommend further quantitative evaluation of the skill of the severe weather warnings issued by the Tanzania Meteorological Authority, and an assessment of how decisions and actions are made by recipients of the warnings in the disaster risk reduction sector at different stages in the warning, response and recovery process.
    Print ISSN: 1948-8327
    Electronic ISSN: 1948-8335
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2021-12-01
    Description: The reported decreasing trend of the annual tropical cyclone (TC) landfalls in southern China and increasing trend in southeastern China in recent decades are confirmed to be an abrupt shift occurring at the end of the twentieth century, based on a statistical analysis. The opposite trends in the two adjacent regions are often considered to be a result of tropical cyclone landfalls in southern China being deflected northward. However, it is demonstrated in this study that they are phenomenally independent. In fact, the abrupt decrease of TC landfalls in southern China occurs as a result of an abrupt decrease of the westward events in the postpeak season (October–December), which in turn is a consequence of a significant decrease of the TC genesis frequency in the southeastern part of the western North Pacific (WNP) Ocean basin. On the other hand, the abrupt increase of TC landfalls in southeastern China occurs because of an abrupt increase of the northwest events in the peak season (July–September), as the consequence of a statistically westward shift of TC genesis. The relevant variations of TC genesis are shown to be mainly caused by decreased relative vorticity and increased vertical wind shear, which, however, are intrinsically related to the accelerated zonal atmospheric circulation driven by a La Niña–like sea surface warming pattern over the WNP that developed after the end of twentieth century.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2021-09-09
    Description: The all-sky assimilation of radiances from microwave instruments is developed in the 4D-EnVar analysis system at Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). Assimilation of cloud-affected radiances from Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit A (AMSUA) temperature sounding channels 4 and 5 for non-precipitating scenes over the ocean surface is the focus of this study. Cloud-affected radiances are discarded in the ECCC operational data assimilation system due to the limitations of forecast model physics, radiative transfer models, and the strong non-linearity of the observation operator. In addition to using symmetric estimate of innovation standard deviation for quality control, a state-dependent observation error inflation is employed at the analysis stage. The background state clouds are scaled by a factor of 0.5 to compensate for a systematic overestimation by the forecast model, before being used in the observation operator. The changes in the fit of the background state to observations show mixed results. The number of AMSUA channels 4 and 5 assimilated observations in the all-sky experiment is 5-12% higher than in the operational system. The all-sky approach improves temperature analysis when verified against ECMWF operational analysis in the areas where the extra cloud-affected observations were assimilated. Statistically significant reductions in error standard deviation by 1-4% for the analysis and forecasts of temperature, specific humidity, and horizontal wind speed up to maximum 4 days were achieved in the all-sky experiment in the lower troposphere. These improvements result mainly from the use of cloud information for computing the observation-minus-background departures. The operational implementation of all-sky assimilation is planned for Fall 2021.
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2021-09-27
    Description: This paper reports the assimilation of cloud optical depth datasets into a variational data assimilation system to improve cloud ice, cloud water, rain, snow, and graupel analysis in extreme weather events for improving forecasts. A cloud optical depth forward operator was developed and implemented in the Space and Time Multiscale Analysis System (STMAS), a multiscale three-dimensional variational analysis system. Using this improved analysis system, the NOAA GOES-15 DCOMP (Daytime Cloud Optical and Microphysical Properties) cloud optical depth products were assimilated to improve the microphysical states. For an eight-day period of extreme weather events in September 2013 in Colorado, the United States, the impact of the cloud optical depth assimilation on the analysis results and forecasts was evaluated. The DCOMP products improved the cloud ice and cloud water predictions significantly in convective and lower levels. The DCOMP products also reduced errors in temperature and relative humidity data at the top (250–150 hPa) and bottom (850–700 hPa) layers. With the cloud ice improvement at higher layers, the DCOMP products provided better forecasts of cloud liquid at low layers (900–700 hPa), temperature and wind at all layers, and relative humidity at middle and bottom layers. Furthermore, for this extreme weather event, both equitable threat score (ETS) and bias were improved throughout the 12 h period, with the most significant improvement observed in the first 3 h. This study will raise the expectation of cloud optical depth product assimilation in operational applications.
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0434
    Topics: Geography , Physics
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2021-09-15
    Description: This study explores the possibilities of employing machine learning algorithms to predict foehn occurrence in Switzerland at a north-Alpine (Altdorf) and south-Alpine (Lugano) station from its synoptic fingerprint in reanalysis data and climate simulations. This allows for an investigation on a potential future shift in monthly foehn frequencies. First, inputs from various atmospheric fields from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis-Interim (ERAI) were used to train an XGBoost model. Here, similar predictive performance to previous work was achieved, showing that foehn can accurately be diagnosed from the coarse synoptic situation. In the next step, the algorithm was generalized to predict foehn based on Community Earth System Model (CESM) ensemble simulations of a present-day and warming future climate. The best generalization between ERAI and CESM was obtained by including the present-day data in the training procedure and simultaneously optimizing two objective functions, namely the negative log loss and squared mean loss, on both datasets, respectively. It is demonstrated that the same synoptic fingerprint can be identified in CESM climate simulation data. Finally, predictions for present-day and future simulations were verified and compared for statistical significance. Our model is shown to produce valid output for most months, revealing that south foehn in Altdorf is expected to become more common during spring, while north foehn in Lugano is expected to become more common during summer.
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0434
    Topics: Geography , Physics
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2021-09-14
    Description: Forecasts of marine cold air outbreaks critically rely on the interplay of multiple parameterisation schemes to represent sub-grid scale processes, including shallow convection, turbulence, and microphysics. Even though such an interplay has been recognised to contribute to forecast uncertainty, a quantification of this interplay is still missing. Here, we investigate the tendencies of temperature and specific humidity contributed by individual parameterisation schemes in the operational weather prediction model AROME-Arctic. From a case study of an extensive marine cold air outbreak over the Nordic Seas, we find that the type of planetary boundary layer assigned by the model algorithm modulates the contribution of individual schemes and affects the interactions between different schemes. In addition, we demonstrate the sensitivity of these interactions to an increase or decrease in the strength of the parameterised shallow convection. The individual tendencies from several parameterisations can thereby compensate each other, sometimes resulting in a small residual. In some instances this residual remains nearly unchanged between the sensitivity experiments, even though some individual tendencies differ by up to an order of magnitude. Using the individual tendency output, we can characterise the subgrid-scale as well as grid-scale responses of the model and trace them back to their underlying causes. We thereby highlight the utility of individual tendency output for understanding process-related differences between model runs with varying physical configurations and for the continued development of numerical weather prediction models.
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0434
    Topics: Geography , Physics
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2021-09-13
    Description: This study investigates the stratosphere-troposphere coupling associated with the Scandinavian (SCA) pattern in boreal winter. The results indicate that the SCA impacts stratospheric circulation but that its positive and negative phases have different effects. The positive phase of the SCA (SCA+) pattern is restricted to the troposphere, but the negative phase (SCA−) extends to the upper stratosphere. The asymmetry between phases is also visible in the lead-lag evolution of the stratosphere and troposphere. Prominent stratospheric anomalies are found to be intensified following SCA+ events, but prior to SCA− events. Further analysis reveals that the responses are associated with upward propagation of planetary waves, especially wavenumber 1 which is asymmetric between SCA phases. The wave amplitudes in the stratosphere, originating from the troposphere, are enhanced after the SCA+ events and before the SCA− events. Furthermore, the anomalous planetary wave activity can be understood through its interference with climatological stationary waves. Constructive wave interference is accompanied by clear upward propagation in the SCA+ events, while destructive interference suppresses stratospheric waves in the SCA− events. Our results also reveal that the SCA+ events are more likely to be followed by sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events, because of the deceleration of stratospheric westerlies following the SCA+ events.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2021-09-13
    Description: The Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) is a major water mass in the South Indian and Pacific oceans and plays an important role in the ocean uptake and anthropogenic heat and carbon. The characteristics, formation, and long-term evolution of the SAMW are investigated in the “historical” and “SSP245” scenario simulations of the sixth Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Defined by the low potential vorticity, the simulated SAMW is consistently thinner, shallower, lighter, and warmer than in observations, due to biases in the winter mixed layer properties and spatial distribution. The biases are especially large in the South Pacific Ocean. The winter mixed layer bias can be attributed to unrealistic heat loss and stratification in the models. Nevertheless, the SAMW is presented better in the CMIP6 than CMIP5, regarding its volume, location, and physical characteristics. In warmer climate, the simulated SAMW in the South Indian Ocean consistently becomes lighter in density, with a reduced volume and a southward shift in the subduction region. The reduced heat loss, instead of the increased Ekman pumping induced by the poleward intensified westerly wind, dominates in the SAMW change. The winter mixed layer shoals in the northern outcrop region and the SAMW subduction shifts southward where the mixed layer remains deep. The projected reduction of the SAMW volume is likely to impact the heat and freshwater redistribution in the Southern Ocean.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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