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  • American Meteorological Society
  • Nature Publishing Group (NPG)
  • 2020-2024  (48)
  • 2010-2014  (22,184)
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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In this work the authors investigate possible changes in the distribution of heavy precipitation events under a warmer climate, using the results of a set of 20 climate models taking part in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 effort (CMIP5). Future changes are evaluated as the difference between the last four decades of the 21st and the 20th Century assuming the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5 scenario. As a measure of the width of the right tail of the precipitation distribution, we use the difference between the 99th and the 90th percentiles. Despite a slight tendency to underestimate the observed heavy precipitation, the considered CMIP5 models well represent the observed patterns in terms of the ensemble average, during both summer and winter seasons for the 1997-2005 period. Future changes in average precipitation are consistentwith previous findings based on CMIP3 models. CMIP5 models show a projected increase for the end of the twenty-first century of the width of the right tail of the precipitation distribution, particularly pronounced over India, South East Asia, Indonesia and Central Africa during borealsummer, as well as over South America and southern Africa during boreal winter.
    Description: Published
    Description: 7902–7911
    Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: precipitation ; extreme events ; climate change ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 12
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    American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We study the quasi-geostrophic merging dynamics of axisymmetric baroclinic vortices to understand how baroclinicity affects merging rates and the development of the nonlinear cascade of enstrophy. The initial vortices are taken to simulate closely the horizontal' and vertical structure of Gulf Stream rings. A quasigeostrophic model is set with a horizontal resolution of 9 km and 6 vertical levels to resolve the mean stratification of the Gulf Stream region. The results show that the baroclinic merging is slower than the purely barotropic process, The merging is shown to occur in two phases: the tirst, which produces clove-shaped vortices and diffusive mixing of vorticity contours; and the second, which consists of the sliding of the remaining vorticity cores with a second diffusive mixing of the intemal vorticity field. Comparison among Nof, Cushman-Roisin, Polvani et al, and Dewar and Killworth merging events indicates a substantial agreement in the kinematics of the DYOCRSS. Parameter sensitivity experiments show that the decrease of the baroclinicity parameter of the system, Γ^2, [defined as Γ^2 = (D^2 fo^2)/ (No^2 H^2)], increases the speed of merging while its increase slows down the merging. However, the halting elfect of baroclinicity (large Γ^2 or small Rossby radii of deformation) reaches a saturation level where the merging becomes insensitive to larger F2 values. Furthermore, we show that a regime of small Γ^2 exists at which the merged baroclinic vortex is unstable (metastable) and breaks again into two new vortices, Thus, in the baroelinic case the range of Γ^2 detemines the stability of the merged vortex. We analyze these results by local energy and vorticity balances, showing that the horizontal divergence of pressure work term [∇ *(pv)] and the relative-vorticity advection term (v * ∇ (∇ ^2 φ) trigger the merging during the first phase. Due to this horizontal redistribution process, a net kinetic to gravitational energy conversion occurs via buoyancy work in the region external to the cores of the vortices. The second phase of merging is dominated by a direct baroclinic conversion of available gravitational energy into kinetic energy, which in tum triggers a horizontal energy redistribution producing the final fusion of the vortex centers. This energy and vorticity analysis supports the hypothesis that merging is an internal mixing process triggered by a horizontal redistribution of kinetic energy.
    Description: The work has been financed by a grant from the Progetto Finalizzato "Calcolo Parallelo"
    Description: Published
    Description: 1618/1637
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Ocean modeling ; Vortex dynamics ; Baroclinicity ; Eddies ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.01. Analytical and numerical modeling
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Future tropical cyclone activity is a topic of great scientific and societal interest. In the absence of a climate theory of tropical cyclogenesis, general circulation models are the primary tool available for investigating the issue. However, the identification of tropical cyclones in model data at moderate resolution is complex, and numerous schemes have been developed for their detection. We here examine the influence of different tracking schemes on detected tropical cyclone activity and responses in the Hurricane Working Group experiments. These are idealized atmospheric general circulation model experiments aimed at determining and distinguishing the effects of increased sea-surface temperature and other increased CO2 effects on tropical cyclone activity. We apply two tracking schemes to these data and also analyze the tracks provided by each modelling group. Our results indicate moderate agreement between the different tracking methods, with some models and experiments showing better agreement across schemes than others. When comparing responses between experiments, we find that much of the disagreement between schemes is due to differences in duration, wind speed, and formation-latitude thresholds. After homogenisation in these thresholds, agreement between different tracking methods is improved. However, much disagreement remains, accountable for by more fundamental differences between the tracking schemes. Our results indicate that sensitivity testing and selection of objective thresholds are the key factors in obtaining meaningful, reproducible results when tracking tropical cyclones in climate model data at these resolutions, but that more fundamental differences between tracking methods can also have a significant impact on the responses in activity detected.
    Description: Published
    Description: 9197–9213
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: tropical cyclones ; tracking schemes ; climate change ; hurricanes ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2020-02-24
    Description: A simulation and two reanalyses from 1985 to 2007 have been produced for the Mediterranean Sea using different assimilation schemes: a reduced-order optimal interpolation [System for Ocean Forecast and Analysis (SOFA)] and a three-dimensional variational scheme (OceanVar). The observational dataset consists of vertical temperature and salinity in situ profiles and along-track satellite sea level anomalies; daily mean fields of satellite sea surface temperature are used for correcting the air–sea fluxes. This paper assesses the quality of the reanalyses with respect to observations and the simulation. Both the SOFA and OceanVar schemes give very similar root-mean-square errors and biases for temperature and salinity fields compared with the assimilated observations. The largest errors are at the thermocline level and in regions of large eddy field variability. However, OceanVar gives 20% better results for sea level anomaly root-mean-square error.
    Description: Published
    Description: 569-59
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Mediterranean Sea ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.05. Operational oceanography
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 15
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Monthly Weather Review., American Meteorological Society, 140(5), pp. 1589-1602
    Publication Date: 2014-04-17
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 16
    Publication Date: 2017-10-17
    Description: Mesoscale transport of energy and matter between the surface and the atmosphere often occurs in form of non-propagating organized structures or thermally-induced circulations. Spatially resolving measurements are required to capture such fluxes and, thus far, airborne measurements are the only means to accomplish this. In contrast, tower-based eddy-covariance measurements are conducted at one point and therefore inherently cannot capture the total atmospheric exchange, which is recognized as a major contributor to energy balance closure problems. As long as there are mean vertical thermal and humidity gradients in the Atmospheric Boundary-Layer, with higher potential temperatures and specific humidities in the surface layer as compared with the outer-layer, such organized structures will lead to a systematic underestimation of turbulent energy fluxes from eddy-towers. Firstly, we address the question of how deep such meso-γ scale motions penetrate into the surface layer. We present indications from Doppler-LiDAR, airborne and tower-based measurements, which show that mesoscale motion can indeed be found quite close to the surface, but the mesoscale effect vanishes when measurements are actually conducted within the roughness sublayer and when shear stress is sufficiently large to break up mesoscale contributions into smaller eddies. This will be illustrated by observations from Germany and Israel. Secondly, we investigate whether the common practice of adjusting the measured eddy tower fluxes for energy balance closure by conserving the Bowen ratio is supported by experimental evidence. Mesoscale and small-scale turbulent fluxes from four different flight campaigns are presented, which were carried out on board of the Canadian Twin Otter (National Research Council of Canada) and the German Polar 5 (Alfred-Wegener Institute) research aircraft over different landscapes in Canada and Alaska.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Conference , notRev
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  • 17
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Physical Oceanography, American Meteorological Society, 44(1), pp. 24-43, ISSN: 0022-3670
    Publication Date: 2017-05-30
    Description: Between ~750 to 635 million years ago, during the Neoproterozoic era, the Earth experienced at least two significant, possibly global, glaciations, termed “Snowball Earth”. While many studies have focused on the dynamics and the role of the atmosphere and ice flow over the ocean in these events, only a few have investigated the related associated ocean circulation, and no study has examined the ocean circulation under a thick (~1 km deep) sea-ice cover, driven by geothermal heat flux. Here, we use a thick sea-ice flow model coupled to an ocean general circulation model to study the ocean circulation under Snowball Earth conditions. We first investigate the ocean circulation under simplified zonal symmetry assumption and find (i) strong equatorial zonal jets, and (ii) a strong meridional overturning cell, limited to an area very close to the equator. We derive an analytic approximation for the latitude-depth ocean dynamics and find that the extent of the meridional overturning circulation cell only depends on the horizontal eddy viscosity and β (the change of the Coriolis parameter with latitude). The analytic approximation closely reproduces the numerical results. Three-dimensional ocean simulations, with reconstructed Neoproterozoic continents configuration, confirm the zonally symmetric dynamics, and show additional boundary currents and strong upwelling and downwelling near the continents.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 18
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2010. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 40 (2010): 789-801, doi:10.1175/2009JPO4039.1.
    Description: The issue of internal wave–mesoscale eddy interactions is revisited. Previous observational work identified the mesoscale eddy field as a possible source of internal wave energy. Characterization of the coupling as a viscous process provides a smaller horizontal transfer coefficient than previously obtained, with vh 50 m2 s−1 in contrast to νh 200–400 m2 s−1, and a vertical transfer coefficient bounded away from zero, with νυ + (f2/N2)Kh 2.5 ± 0.3 × 10−3 m2 s−1 in contrast to νυ + (f2/N2)Kh = 0 ± 2 × 10−2 m2 s−1. Current meter data from the Local Dynamics Experiment of the PolyMode field program indicate mesoscale eddy–internal wave coupling through horizontal interactions (i) is a significant sink of eddy energy and (ii) plays an O(1) role in the energy budget of the internal wave field.
    Keywords: Eddies ; Internal waves ; Mesoscale processes
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2010. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 40 (2010): 934-948, doi:10.1175/2009JPO4214.1.
    Description: The mean heat and salt balances over the Middle Atlantic Bight continental shelf are investigated by testing the hypothesis that surface fluxes of heat or freshwater are balanced by along-isobath fluxes resulting from the mean, depth-averaged, along-isobath flow acting on the mean, depth-averaged, along-isobath temperature or salinity gradient. This hypothesized balance is equivalent in a Lagrangian frame to a column of water, for example, warming because of surface heating as it is advected southward along isobath by the mean flow. Mean depth-averaged temperatures increase from north to south along isobath at a rate of 2°C (1000 km)−1 at midshelf, which is consistent with the hypothesized balance and mean surface heat flux estimates from the 50-yr NCEP Reanalysis. However, mean surface heat flux estimates from the higher-resolution 20-yr Objectively Analyzed Air–Sea Fluxes (OAFlux) reanalysis are too small to balance the along-isobath heat flux divergence implying a cross-shelf heat flux convergence. It is unclear which surface heat flux estimate, NCEP or OAFlux, is more accurate. The cross-shelf heat flux convergence resulting from the mean cross-shelf circulation is too small to balance the along-isobath heat flux divergence. Mean depth-averaged salinities increase from north to south along isobath at a rate of 1 (psu) (1000 km)−1 at midshelf. Mean precipitation and evaporation rates nearly balance so that the net freshwater flux is too small by more than an order of magnitude to account for the observed along-isobath increase in salinity. The cross-shelf salt flux divergence resulting from the mean cross-shelf circulation has the wrong sign to balance the divergence in the along-isobath salt flux. These results imply there must be an onshore “eddy” salt flux resulting from the time-dependent current and salinity variability. The along-isobath temperature and salinity gradients compensate for each other so that the mean, depth-averaged, along-isobath density gradient is approximately zero. This suggests that there may be a feedback between the along-isobath density gradient and the onshore salt and heat fluxes that maintains the density gradient near zero.
    Description: This work was funded by the National Science Foundation under Grants OCE-0220773, OCE-0241292, andOCE-0548961.
    Keywords: Continental shelf/slope ; Atlantic Ocean ; Fluxes
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 20
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2010. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 40 (2010): 1075-1086, doi:10.1175/2009JPO4375.1.
    Description: A quasigeostrophic, two-layer model is used to study the baroclinic circulation around a thin, meridionally elongated island. The flow is driven by either buoyancy forcing or wind stress, each of whose structure would produce an antisymmetric double-gyre flow. The ocean bottom is flat. When the island partially straddles the intergyre boundary, fluid from one gyre is forced to flow into the other. The amount of the intergyre flow depends on the island constant, that is, the value of the geostrophic streamfunction on the island in each layer. That constant is calculated in a manner similar to earlier studies and is determined by the average, along the meridional length of the island, of the interior Sverdrup solution just to the east of the island. Explicit solutions are given for both buoyancy and wind-driven flows. The presence of an island of nonzero width requires the determination of the baroclinic streamfunction on the basin’s eastern boundary. The value of the boundary term is proportional to the island’s area. This adds a generally small additional baroclinic intergyre flow. In all cases, the intergyre flow produced by the island is not related to topographic steering of the flow but rather the pressure anomaly on the island as manifested by the barotropic and baroclinic island constants. The vertical structure of the flow around the island is a function of the parameterization of the vertical mixing in the problem and, in particular, the degree to which long baroclinic Rossby waves can traverse the basin before becoming thermally damped.
    Description: This research was supported in part by NSF Grant OCE 0451086.
    Keywords: Gyres ; Baroclinic flows ; Topographic effects ; Streamfunction ; Orographic effects
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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