ALBERT

Description: In this study, the effect of disturbance dynamo electric field (DDEF) induced by subauroral polarization streams (SAPS) on the variations of the equatorial electrojet (EEJ) and its counter electrojet (CEJ) during the geomagnetic storm on June 1, 2013 is analyzed in detail for the first time. Observations from ground-based magnetometers showed that the SAPS-induced EEJ flows westward and eastward in the daytime and dawn/dusk sectors, respectively. The effects of SAPS on EEJ are mainly associated with the changes of zonal ionospheric electric field, while the changes in the ionospheric conductivity play a secondary role. By using Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamic General Circulation Model simulations, the zonal electric field induced by SAPS associated with the DDEF is examined. The results of the simulations show that the DDEF has a significant impact on the EEJ variability. The daytime westward EEJ at the dip equator is mainly driven by disturbance zonal wind, with secondary contributions from disturbance meridional wind. A similar mechanism can be observed in the dawn/dusk sector when the eastward EEJ is produced; however, it has a much weaker intensity than that during the daytime.

Description: CO2 release from particulate organic carbon (POC) oxidation during fluvial transit can influence climate over a range of timescales. Identifying the mechanistic controls on such carbon fluxes requires determining where POC oxidation occurs in river systems. While field data show POC oxidation and replacement moving downstream in lowland rivers, flume studies show that oxidation during active fluvial transport is limited. This suggests that most fluvial POC oxidation occurs during transient floodplain storage, but this idea has yet to be tested. Here, we isolate the influence of floodplain storage time on POC oxidation by exploiting a chronosequence of floodplain deposits above the modern groundwater table in the Rio Bermejo, Argentina. Measurements from 15 floodplain cores with depositional ages from 1 y to 20 ky show a progressive POC concentration decrease and 13C-enrichment with increasing time spent in floodplain storage. These results from the Rio Bermejo indicate that over 80% of fluvially-deposited POC can be oxidized over millennial timescales in aerated floodplains. Furthermore, POC in the oldest floodplain cores is more 14C-enriched than expected based on the independently-dated floodplain ages, indicating that a portion of this oxidized POC is replaced by autochthonous POC produced primarily by floodplain vegetation. We suggest floodplain storage timescales control the extent of oxidation of fluvially-deposited POC, and may play a prominent role in determining if rivers are significant atmospheric CO2 sources.

Description: Wuhan (China) is facing severe consolidation subsidence of soft soil and karst collapse hazards. To quantitatively explore the extent and causes of land subsidence in Wuhan, we performed multitemporal interferometry (MTI) analysis using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data from the TerraSAR-X satellite from 2013 to 2017 and the Sentinel-1A satellite from 2015 to 2017. MTI results reveal four major subsidence zones in Wuhan, namely, Hankou (exceeding −6 cm/yr), Xudong-Qingshan (−3 cm/yr), Baishazhou-Jiangdi (−3 cm/yr), and Jianshe-Yangluo (−2 cm/yr). Accuracy assessment using 106 levelling benchmarks and cross-validation between the two InSAR-based results indicate an overall root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 2.5 and 3.1 mm/yr, respectively. Geophysical and geological analyses suggest that among the four major subsiding zones, Hankou, Xudong-Qingshan, and Jianshe-Yangluo are located in non-karstic soft soil areas, where shallow groundwater (〈 30 m) declines driven by engineering dewatering and industrial water depletion contribute directly to soft soil compaction. Subsidence in the Baishazhou-Jiangdi zone develops in the karst terrain with abundant underground caves and fissures, which are major natural factors for gradual subsidence and karst collapse. Spatial variation analysis of the geological conditions indicates that the stage of karst development plays the most important role in influencing kart subsidence, followed by municipal construction, proximity to major rivers, and overlying soil structure. Moreover, land subsidence in this zone is affected more via coupling effects from multiple factors. Risk zoning analysis integrating subsidence horizontal gradient, InSAR deformation rates, and municipal construction density show that the high-risk areas in Wuhan are mainly distributed in the Tianxingzhou and Baishazhou-Jiangdi zone, and generally spread along the metro lines.

Description: Climate change and rapid expansion of urban areas are expected to increase pluvial flood hazard and risk in the near future, and particularly so in large developed areas and cities. Therefore, large-scale and high-resolution pluvial flood hazard mapping is required to identify hotspots where mitigation measures may be applied to reduce flood risk. Depressions or low points in urban areas where runoff volumes can be stored are prone to pluvial flooding. The standard approach based on estimating synthetic design hyetographs assumes, in a given depression, that the T-year design storm generates the T-year pluvial flood. In addition, urban areas usually include several depressions even linked or nested that would require distinct design hyetographs instead of using a unique synthetic design storm. In this paper, a stochastic methodology is proposed to address the limitations of this standard approach, developing large-scale ∼ 2 m-resolution pluvial flood hazard maps in urban areas with multiple depressions. The authors present an application of the proposed approach to the city of Pamplona in Spain (68.26 km2). The Safer_RAIN fast-processing algorithm based on digital elevation models (DEMs) is compared with the IBER 2D hydrodynamic model in four real storms by using 10-min precipitation fields. Precipitation recorded at rainfall-gauging stations was merged with continuous fields obtained from a meteorological radar station. Given the hydrostatic limitations of Safer_RAIN, the benchmarking results are adequate in terms of water depths in depressions. A long set of 10 000 synthetic storms that maintain the statistical properties of observations in Pamplona is generated. Safer_RAIN is used to simulate runoff response, and filling and spilling processes, in depressions for the 10 000 synthetic storms, obtaining the probability distribution of water depths in each cell. Maps of pluvial flood hazards are developed in the Pamplona metropolitan area for 10 return periods in the range from two to 500 years from such pixel-based series of simulated water depths. Bivariate return-period curves are estimated in a set of cells, showing that several storms can generate a given T-year pluvial flood with an increasing precipitation with storm duration that depends on the draining catchment soil characteristics. The methodology proposed is useful to develop maps of pluvial flood hazards in large multi-depression urban areas in reasonable computation times, identifying the main pluvial flood hotspots.

Description: Geochemical processes such as mineral dissolution and precipitation alter the microstructure of rocks, and thereby affect their hydraulic and mechanical behaviour. Quantifying these property changes and considering them in reservoir simulations is essential for a sustainable utilisation of the geological subsurface. Due to the lack of alternatives, analytical methods and empirical relations are currently applied to estimate evolving hydraulic and mechanical rock properties associated with chemical reactions. However, the predictive capabilities of analytical approaches remain limited, since they assume idealised microstructures, and thus are not able to reflect property evolution for dynamic processes. Hence, aim of the present thesis is to improve the prediction of permeability and stiffness changes resulting from pore space alterations of reservoir sandstones. A detailed representation of rock microstructure, including the morphology and connectivity of pores, is essential to accurately determine physical rock properties. For that purpose, three-dimensional pore-scale models of typical reservoir sandstones, obtained from highly resolved micro-computed tomography (micro-CT), are used to numerically calculate permeability and stiffness. In order to adequately depict characteristic distributions of secondary minerals, the virtual samples are systematically altered and resulting trends among the geometric, hydraulic, and mechanical rock properties are quantified. It is demonstrated that the geochemical reaction regime controls the location of mineral precipitation within the pore space, and thereby crucially affects the permeability evolution. This emphasises the requirement of determining distinctive porosity-permeability relationships by means of digital pore-scale models. By contrast, a substantial impact of spatial alterations patterns on the stiffness evolution of reservoir sandstones are only observed in case of certain microstructures, such as highly porous granular rocks or sandstones comprising framework-supporting cementations. In order to construct synthetic granular samples a process-based approach is proposed including grain deposition and diagenetic cementation. It is demonstrated that the generated samples reliably represent the microstructural complexity of natural sandstones. Thereby, general limitations of imaging techniques can be overcome and various realisations of granular rocks can be flexibly produced. These can be further altered by virtual experiments, offering a fast and cost-effective way to examine the impact of precipitation, dissolution or fracturing on various petrophysical correlations. The presented research work provides methodological principles to quantify trends in permeability and stiffness resulting from geochemical processes. The calculated physical property relations are directly linked to pore-scale alterations, and thus have a higher accuracy than commonly applied analytical approaches. This will considerably improve the predictive capabilities of reservoir models, and is further relevant to assess and reduce potential risks, such as productivity or injectivity losses as well as reservoir compaction or fault reactivation. Hence, the proposed method is of paramount importance for a wide range of natural and engineered subsurface applications, including geothermal energy systems, hydrocarbon reservoirs, CO2 and energy storage as well as hydrothermal deposit exploration

Description: Geochemische Lösungs- und Fällungsprozesse verändern die Struktur des Porenraums und können dadurch die hydraulischen und mechanischen Gesteinseigenschaften erheblich beeinflussen. Die Quantifizierung dieser Parameteränderung und ihre Berücksichtigung in Reservoirmodellen ist entscheidend für eine nachhaltige Nutzung des geologischen Untergrunds. Aufgrund fehlender Alternativen werden dafür bisher analytische Methoden genutzt. Da diese Ansätze eine idealisierte Mikrostruktur annehmen, können insbesondere Änderungen der Gesteinseigenschaften infolge von dynamischen Prozessen nicht zuverlässig abgebildet werden. Ziel der vorliegenden Doktorarbeit ist es deshalb, die Entwicklung von Gesteinspermeabilitäten und -steifigkeiten aufgrund von Porenraumveränderungen genauer vorherzusagen. Für die möglichst exakte Bestimmung physikalischer Gesteinsparameter ist eine detaillierte Darstellung der Mikrostruktur notwendig. Basierend auf mikro-computertomographischen Scans werden daher hochaufgelöste, dreidimensionale Modelle typischer Reservoirsandsteine erstellt und Gesteinspermeabilität und -steifigkeit numerisch berechnet. Um charakteristische Verteilungen von Sekundärmineralen abzubilden, wird der Porenraum dieser virtuellen Sandsteinproben systematisch verändert und die resultierenden Auswirkungen auf die granulometrischen, hydraulischen und elastischen Gesteinseigenschaften bestimmt. Die Ergebnisse zeigen deutlich, dass charakteristische Fällungsmuster unterschiedlicher geochemischer Reaktionsregime die Permeabilität erheblich beeinflussen. Folglich ist die Nutzung von porenskaligen Modellen zur Bestimmung der Porosität-Permeabilitätsbeziehungen unbedingt notwendig. Im Gegensatz dazu ist die Verteilung von Sekundärmineralen für die Gesteinssteifigkeit nur bei bestimmten Mikrostrukturen von Bedeutung, hierzu zählen hochporöse Sandsteine oder solche mit Korngerüst-stützenden Zementierungen. In der Arbeit wird außerdem ein Ansatz zur Konstruktion granularer Gesteine vorgestellt, welcher sowohl die Kornsedimentation als auch die diagenetische Verfestigung umfasst. Es wird gezeigt, dass die synthetischen Proben die mikrostrukturelle Komplexität natürlicher Reservoirsandsteine gut abbilden. Dadurch können generelle Limitationen von bildgebenden Verfahren überwunden und unterschiedlichste virtuelle Repräsentationen von granularen Gesteinen generiert werden. Die synthetischen Proben können zukünftig in virtuellen Experimenten verwendet werden, um die Auswirkungen von Lösungs- und Fällungsreaktionen auf verschiedene petrophysikalische Korrelationen zu untersuchen. Die vorgestellte Arbeit liefert methodische Grundlagen zur Quantifizierung von Permeabilitäts- und Steifigkeitsänderungen infolge geochemischer Prozesse. Die berechneten petrophysikalischen Beziehungen basieren direkt auf mikrostrukturellen Veränderungen des Porenraums. Daher bieten sie eine genauere Vorhersage der Gesteinseigenschaften als herkömmliche analytische Methoden, wodurch sich die Aussagekraft von Reservoirmodellen erheblich verbessert. Somit können Risiken, wie Produktivitäts- oder Injektivitätsverluste sowie Reservoirkompaktion oder Störungsreaktivierung, verringert werden. Die präsentierten Ergebnisse sind daher relevant für verschiedenste Bereiche der geologischen Untergrundnutzung wie CO2- oder Energiespeicherung, Geothermie, Kohlenwasserstoffgewinnung sowie die Erkundung hydrothermaler Lagerstätten.

Description: The real-time Earth orientation parameters (EOP) estimation is needed for many applications, including precise tracking and navigation of interplanetary spacecraft, climate forecasting, and disaster prevention. However, the complexity and time-consuming data processing always lead to time delays. Accordingly, several methods were developed and applied for the EOP prediction. However, the accuracy of EOP prediction is still not satisfactory even for prediction of just a few days in the future. Therefore, new methods or a combination of the existing approaches can be investigated to improve the predicted EOP. To assess the various EOP prediction capabilities, the international Earth rotation and reference systems service (IERS) established the working group on the 2nd Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (2nd EOP PCC). Our EOP prediction team provides the full set of EOP predictions weekly for one year ahead. In this campaign, we used the SSA+Copula method and the empirical free core nutation (FCN) model (named B16) for Earth rotation parameters and celestial pole offsets (CPO) prediction, respectively. Additionally, we investigated new prediction techniques and different input data set; as an example, the Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) is introduced to model and predict the short-term EOP. Our preliminary results illustrate an improvement in EOP prediction compared to the current EOP prediction methods, especially on CPO.