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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2021-11-26
    Description: Integrating palaeoclimatological proxies and historical records, which is necessary to achieve a more complete understanding of climate impacts on past societies, is a challenging task, often leading to unsatisfactory and even contradictory conclusions. This has until recently been the case for Italy, the heart of the Roman Empire, during the transition between Antiquity and the Middle Ages. In this paper, we present new high-resolution speleothem data from the Apuan Alps (Central Italy). The data document a period of very wet conditions in the sixth c. AD, probably related to synoptic atmospheric conditions similar to a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. For this century, there also exist a significant number of historical records of extreme hydroclimatic events, previously discarded as anecdotal. We show that this varied evidence reflects the increased frequency of floods and extreme rainfall events in Central and Northern Italy at the time. Moreover, we also show that these unusual hydroclimatic conditions overlapped with the increased presence of "water miracles" in Italian hagiographical accounts and social imagination. The miracles, performed by local Church leaders, strengthened the already growing authority of holy bishops and monks in Italian society during the crucial centuries that followed the "Fall of the Roman Empire". Thus, the combination of natural and historical data allows us to show the degree to which the impact of climate variability on historical societies is determined not by the nature of the climatic phenomena per se, but by the culture and the structure of the society that experienced it.
    Description: Published
    Description: 25
    Description: 5A. Ricerche polari e paleoclima
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Precipitation ; Roman Empire ; miracles ; Social feedbacks ; Cultural change ; climate change
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-07-20
    Description: © The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Light, C., Arbic, B., Martin, P., Brodeau, L., Farrar, J., Griffies, S., Kirtman, B., Laurindo, L., Menemenlis, D., Molod, A., Nelson, A., Nyadjro, E., O’Rourke, A., Shriver, J., Siqueira, L., Small, R., & Strobach, E. Effects of grid spacing on high-frequency precipitation variance in coupled high-resolution global ocean–atmosphere models. Climate Dynamics, (2022): 1–27, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06257-6.
    Description: High-frequency precipitation variance is calculated in 12 different free-running (non-data-assimilative) coupled high resolution atmosphere–ocean model simulations, an assimilative coupled atmosphere–ocean weather forecast model, and an assimilative reanalysis. The results are compared with results from satellite estimates of precipitation and rain gauge observations. An analysis of irregular sub-daily fluctuations, which was applied by Covey et al. (Geophys Res Lett 45:12514–12522, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078926) to satellite products and low-resolution climate models, is applied here to rain gauges and higher-resolution models. In contrast to lower-resolution climate simulations, which Covey et al. (2018) found to be lacking with respect to variance in irregular sub-daily fluctuations, the highest-resolution simulations examined here display an irregular sub-daily fluctuation variance that lies closer to that found in satellite products. Most of the simulations used here cannot be analyzed via the Covey et al. (2018) technique, because they do not output precipitation at sub-daily intervals. Thus the remainder of the paper focuses on frequency power spectral density of precipitation and on cumulative distribution functions over time scales (2–100 days) that are still relatively “high-frequency” in the context of climate modeling. Refined atmospheric or oceanic model grid spacing is generally found to increase high-frequency precipitation variance in simulations, approaching the values derived from observations. Mesoscale-eddy-rich ocean simulations significantly increase precipitation variance only when the atmosphere grid spacing is sufficiently fine (〈 0.5°). Despite the improvements noted above, all of the simulations examined here suffer from the “drizzle effect”, in which precipitation is not temporally intermittent to the extent found in observations.
    Description: Support for CXL’s effort on this project was provided by a Research Experiences for Undergraduates (REU) supplement for National Science Foundation (NSF) grant OCE-1851164 to BKA, which also provided partial support for PEM. In addition, BKA acknowledges NSF grant OCE-1351837, which provided partial support for AKO, Office of Naval Research grant N00014-19-1-2712 and NASA grants NNX17AH55G, which also provided partial support for ADN, and 80NSSC20K1135. JTF’s participation, and the SPURS-II buoy data, were funded by NASA grants 80NSSC18K1494 and NNX15AG20G.
    Keywords: Precipitation ; High-frequency precipitation ; Numerical modeling ; High-resolution models ; Coupled ocean-atmosphere models
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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