ALBERT

Description: The Northeast Greenland Ice Stream has recently seen significant change to its floating margins and has been identified as vulnerable to future climate warming. Inflow of warm Atlantic Intermediate Water (AIW) from the continental shelf has been observed in the vicinity of the Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden (79gg€¯N) Glacier calving front, but AIW penetration deep into the ice shelf cavity has not been observed directly. Here, we report temperature and salinity measurements from profiles in an epishelf lake, which provide the first direct evidence of AIW proximal to the grounding line of 79gg€¯N Glacier, over 50g€¯km from the calving front. We also report evidence for partial un-grounding of the margin of 79gg€¯N Glacier taking place at the western end of the epishelf lake. Comparison of our measurements to those close to the calving front shows that AIW transits the cavity to reach the grounding line within a few months. The observations provide support for modelling studies that infer AIW-driven basal melt proximal to the grounding line and demonstrate that offshore oceanographic changes can be rapidly transmitted throughout the sub-ice-shelf cavity, with implications for near-future stability of the ice stream.

Description: The European Beyond EPICA project aims to extract a continuous ice core of up to 1.5 Ma, with a maximum age density of 20 kyr m-1 at Little Dome C (LDC). We present a 1D numerical model which calculates the age of the ice around Dome C. The model inverts for basal conditions and accounts either for melting or for a layer of stagnant ice above the bedrock. It is constrained by internal reflecting horizons traced in radargrams and dated using the EPICA Dome C (EDC) ice core age profile. We used three different radar datasets ranging from a 10 000 km2 airborne survey down to 5 km long ground-based radar transects over LDC. We find that stagnant ice exists in many places, including above the LDC relief where the new Beyond EPICA drill site (BELDC) is located. The modelled thickness of this layer of stagnant ice roughly corresponds to the thickness of the basal unit observed in one of the radar surveys and in the autonomous phase-sensitive radio-echo sounder (ApRES) dataset. At BELDC, the modelled stagnant ice thickness is 198±44 m and the modelled oldest age of ice is 1.45±0.16 Ma at a depth of 2494±30 m. This is very similar to all sites situated on the LDC relief, including that of the Million Year Ice Core project being conducted by the Australian Antarctic Division. The model was also applied to radar data in the area 10-15 km north of EDC (North Patch), where we find either a thin layer of stagnant ice (generally 〈60 m) or a negligible melt rate (〈0.1 mm yr-1). The modelled maximum age at North Patch is over 2 Ma in most places, with ice at 1.5 Ma having a resolution of 9-12 kyr m-1, making it an exciting prospect for a future Oldest Ice drill site.

Description: Impurities in polar ice play a critical role in ice flow, deformation, and the integrity of the ice core record. Especially cloudy bands, visible layers with high impurity concentrations, are prominent features in ice from glacial periods. Their physical and chemical properties are poorly understood, highlighting the need to analyse them in more detail. We bridge the gap between decimetre and micrometre scales by combining the visual stratigraphy line scanner, fabric analyser, microstructure mapping, Raman spectroscopy, and laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry 2D impurity imaging. We classified approximately 1300 cloudy bands from glacial ice from the East Greenland Ice-core Project (EGRIP) ice core into seven different types. We determine the localisation and mineralogy of more than 1000 micro-inclusions at 13 depths. The majority of the minerals found are related to terrestrial dust, such as quartz, feldspar, mica, and hematite. We further found carbonaceous particles, dolomite, and gypsum in high abundance. Rutile, anatase, epidote, titanite, and grossular are infrequently observed. The 2D impurity imaging at 20μm resolution revealed that cloudy bands are clearly distinguishable in the chemical data. Na, Mg, and Sr are mainly present at grain boundaries, whereas dust-related analytes, such as Al, Fe, and Ti, are located in the grain interior, forming clusters of insoluble impurities. We present novel vast micrometre-resolution insights into cloudy bands and describe the differences within and outside these bands. Combining the visual and chemical data results in new insights into the formation of different cloudy band types and could be the starting point for future in-depth studies on impurity signal integrity and internal deformation in deep polar ice cores.

Description: Low-level airborne observations of the Arctic surface radiative energy budget are discussed. We fo- cus on the terrestrial part of the budget, quantified by the thermal-infrared net irradiance (TNI). The data were collected in cloudy and cloud-free conditions over and in the vicinity of the marginal sea ice zone (MIZ) close to Svalbard during two aircraft campaigns conducted in the spring of 2019 and in the early summer of 2017. The measurements, complemented by ground-based observations available from the literature and radiative transfer simulations, are used to evaluate the influence of surface type (sea ice, open ocean, MIZ), seasonal characteris- tics, and synoptically driven meridional air mass transports into and out of the Arctic on the near-surface TNI. The analysis reveals a typical four-mode structure of the frequency distribution of the TNI as a function of sur- face albedo, the sea ice fraction, and surface brightness temperature. Two modes prevail over sea ice and another two over open ocean, each representing cloud-free and cloudy radiative states. Characteristic shifts and modifi- cations of the TNI modes during the transition from winter to spring and early summer conditions are discussed. Furthermore, the influence of warm air intrusions (WAIs) and marine cold-air outbreaks (MCAOs) on the near- surface downward thermal-infrared irradiances and the TNI is highlighted for several case studies. It is concluded that during WAIs the surface warming depends on cloud properties and evolution. Lifted clouds embedded in warmer air masses over a colder sea ice surface, decoupled from the ground by a surface-based temperature inversion, have the potential to warm the surface more strongly than near-surface fog or thin low-level boundary layer clouds because of a higher cloud base temperature. For MCAOs it is found that the thermodynamic profile of the southward-moving air mass adapts only slowly to the warmer ocean surface.

Description: The effect that sea ice topography has on the mo- mentum transfer between ice and atmosphere is not fully quantified due to the vast extent of the Arctic and limita- tions of current measurement techniques. Here we present a method to estimate pan-Arctic momentum transfer via a pa- rameterization that links sea ice–atmosphere form drag coef- ficients with surface feature height and spacing. We measure these sea ice surface feature parameters using the Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2). Though ICESat-2 is unable to resolve as well as airborne surveys, it has a higher along-track spatial resolution than other contemporary al- timeter satellites. As some narrow obstacles are effectively smoothed out by the ICESat-2 ATL07 spatial resolution, we use near-coincident high-resolution Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) elevation data from NASA’s Operation Ice- Bridge (OIB) mission to scale up the regional ICESat-2 drag estimates. By also incorporating drag due to open water, floe edges and sea ice skin drag, we produced a time series of average total pan-Arctic neutral atmospheric drag coefficient estimates from November 2018 to May 2022. Here we have observed its temporal evolution to be unique and not directly tied to sea ice extent. By also mapping 3-month aggregates for the years 2019, 2020 and 2021 for better regional anal- ysis, we found the thick multiyear ice area directly north of the Canadian Archipelago and Greenland to be consistently above 2.0 × 10 −3 , while most of the multiyear ice portion of the Arctic is typically around 1.5 × 10 −3 .

Description: In order to quantify the relative importance of individual boundary conditions and forcings, including greenhouse gases, ice sheets, and Earth’s orbital parameters, on determining Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate, we have performed a series of LGM experiments using a state-of-the-art climate model AWI-ESM, in which different combinations of boundary conditions and forcings have been applied following the protocol of Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 4 (PMIP4). In good agreement with observational proxy records, a general colder and drier climate is simulated in our full-forced LGM experiment as compared to the present-day simulation. Our simulated results from non-full-forced sensitivity simulations reveal that both the greenhouse gases and ice sheets play a major role in defining the anomalous LGM surface temperature compared to today. Decreased greenhouse gases in LGM as compared to present day leads to a non-uniform global cooling with polar amplification effect. The presence of LGM ice sheets favors a warming over the Arctic and northern Atlantic oceans in boreal winter, as well as a cooling over regions with the presence of ice sheets. The former is induced by a strengthening in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) transporting more heat to high latitudes, whilst the latter is due to the increased surface albedo and elevation of ice sheets. We find that the Northern Hemisphere monsoon precipitation is influenced by the opposing effects of LGM greenhouse gases and ice sheets. Specifically, the presence of ice sheets leads to significant drying in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions, while a reduction in greenhouse gases results in increased monsoon rainfall. Based on our model results, continental ice sheets exert a major control on atmospheric dynamics and the variability of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Moreover, our analysis also implies a nonlinearity in climate response to LGM boundary conditions and forcings.

Description: In the past decade groundbreaking new satellite observations of the Arctic sea ice cover have been made, allowing researchers to understand the state of the Arctic sea ice system in greater detail than before. The derived estimates of sea ice thickness are useful but limited in time and space. In this study the first results of a new sea ice data assimilation system are presented. Observations assimilated (in various combinations) are monthly mean sea ice thickness and monthly mean sea ice thickness distribution from CryoSat-2 and NASA daily Bootstrap sea ice concentration. This system couples the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling's (CPOM) version of the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE) to the localised ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) from the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (PDAF) library. The impact of assimilating a sub-grid-scale sea ice thickness distribution is of particular novelty. The sub-grid-scale sea ice thickness distribution is a fundamental component of sea ice models, playing a vital role in the dynamical and thermodynamical processes, yet very little is known of its true state in the Arctic. This study finds that assimilating CryoSat-2 products for the mean thickness and the sub-grid-scale thickness distribution can have significant consequences for the modelled distribution of the ice thickness across the Arctic and particularly in regions of thick multi-year ice. The assimilation of sea ice concentration, mean sea ice thickness and sub-grid-scale sea ice thickness distribution together performed best when compared to a subset of CryoSat-2 observations held back for validation. Regional model biases are reduced: the thickness of the thickest ice in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) is decreased, but the thickness of the ice in the central Arctic is increased. When comparing the assimilation of mean thickness with the assimilation of sub-grid-scale thickness distribution, it is found that the latter leads to a significant change in the volume of ice in each category. Estimates of the thickest ice improve significantly with the assimilation of sub-grid-scale thickness distribution alongside mean thickness.

Description: Arctic sea ice has declined in all seasons accompanied by rapid atmospheric warming. Here, the focus lies on the wider Fram Strait region where the connection between trends in observed near-surface variables (temperature, humidity, wind speed) and local sea ice conditions are analyzed. Reanalysis data from ERA5 and MERRA-2 and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager ARTIST Sea Ice (SSM/I-ASI) sea ice concentrations for the winters of 1992 to 2022 are used for the analyses. Two focus regions are identified for which trends are largest. In the western Nansen Basin (WNB), sea ice cover decreased by -10% per decade with especially large open water areas in 2022, and temperature and humidity increased by up to 3.7K and 0.29 gkg-1 per decade, respectively. In the Greenland sea region (GRL), trends were slightly smaller, with -4.7% per decade for sea ice and up to 1.3K and 0.15 gkg -1 per decade for temperature and humidity. Trends for wind speed were mostly not significant. As a next step, two typical flow directions for this region were studied: cold-air outbreaks with northerly winds originating from ice covered areas (off-ice flow) and warm-air intrusions with southerly winds from open ocean regions (onice flow). To identify possible relationships between sea ice changes and atmospheric trends, correlation maps were calculated, and the results for off- and on-ice flow were compared. Up to two thirds of the observed temperature and humidity variability in both regions are related to upstream sea ice variability and an influence of sea ice cover is still present up to 500 km downstream of the ice edge. In the marginal sea ice zone the impact of a decreasing sea ice cover in this region is largest for off-ice flow conditions during cold-air outbreaks.

Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Yamamoto, A., Nonaka, M., Martineau, P., Yamazaki, A., Kwon, Y.-O., Nakamura, H., & Taguchi, B. Oceanic moisture sources contributing to wintertime Euro-Atlantic blocking. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 2(3), (2021): 819–840, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-819-2021.

Description: Although conventionally attributed to dry dynamics, increasing evidence points to a key role of moist dynamics in the formation and maintenance of blocking events. The source of moisture crucial for these processes, however, remains elusive. In this study, we identify the moisture sources responsible for latent heating associated with the wintertime Euro-Atlantic blocking events detected over 31 years (1979–2010). To this end, we track atmospheric particles backward in time from the blocking centres for a period of 10 d using an offline Lagrangian dispersion model applied to atmospheric reanalysis data. The analysis reveals that 28 %–55 % of particles gain heat and moisture from the ocean over the course of 10 d, with higher percentages for the lower altitudes from which particles are released. Via large-scale ascent, these moist particles transport low-potential-vorticity (PV) air of low-altitude, low-latitude origins into the upper troposphere, where the amplitude of blocking is the most prominent, in agreement with previous studies. The PV of these moist particles remains significantly lower compared to their dry counterparts throughout the course of 10 d, preferentially constituting blocking cores. Further analysis reveals that approximately two-thirds of the moist particles source their moisture locally from the Atlantic, while the remaining one-third of moist particles source it from the Pacific. There is also a small fraction of moist particles that take up moisture from both the Pacific and Atlantic basins, which undergo a large-scale uplift over the Atlantic using moisture picked up over both basins. The Gulf Stream and Kuroshio and their extensions as well as the eastern Pacific northeast of Hawaii not only provide heat and moisture to moist particles but also act as “springboards” for their large-scale, cross-isentropic ascent, where its extent strongly depends on the humidity content at the time of the ascent. While the particles of Atlantic origin swiftly ascend just before their arrival at blocking, those of Pacific origin begin their ascent a few days earlier, after which they carry low-PV air in the upper troposphere while undergoing radiative cooling just as dry particles. A previous study identified a blocking maintenance mechanism, whereby low-PV air is selectively absorbed into blocking systems to prolong blocking lifetime. As they used an isentropic trajectory analysis, this mechanism was regarded as a dry process. We found that these moist particles that are fuelled over the Pacific can also act to maintain blocks in the same manner, revealing that what appears to be a blocking maintenance mechanism governed by dry dynamics alone can, in fact, be of moist origin.

Description: This research has been supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) (grant nos. JP19H05701, JP19H05702, JP19H05703, JP19H05704 on Innovative Areas 6102, and JP20H01970), the Japan Science and Technology Agency through Belmont Forum CRA “InterDec” and COI-NEXT (grant no. JPMJPF2013), the Japanese Ministry of Environment through the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (grant no. JPMEERF20192004), the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) through the Arctic Challenge for Sustainability (ArCS and ARCS II; grant nos. JPMXD1300000000 and JPMXD1420318865) programmes, the Japanese Ministry of Environment through the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (grant no. 2-1904), the US NSF Climate & Large Scale Dynamics Program (grant no. AGS-2040073), and the US DOE CESD Regional and Gloabal Model Analysis programme (grant no. DE-SC0019492). Patrick Martineau was partly supported by Grant-in-Aid for JSPS Research Fellows.

Description: Recent studies have found evidence for a potential future tipping point, when the density of Antarctic continental shelf waters, specifically in the southern Weddell Sea, will allow for the onshore flow of warm waters of open ocean origin. A cold-to-warm regime shift in the adjacent ice shelf cavities entails a strong enhancement of ice shelf basal melt rates and could trigger instabilities in the ice sheet. From a suite of numerical experiments, aimed to force such a regime shift on the continental shelf, we identified the density balance between the shelf waters formed by sea ice production and the warmer water at the shelf break as the defining element of a tipping into a warm state. In our experiments, this process is reversible but there is evidence for hysteresis behaviour. Using HadCM3 20th-century output as atmospheric forcing, the resulting state of the Filchner-Ronne cavity depends on the initial state. In contrast, ERA Interim forcing pushes even a warm-initialized cavity into a cold state, i.e. it pushes the system back across the reversal threshold to the cold side. However, it turns out that for forcing data perturbations of a realistic magnitude, a unique and universal recipe for triggering a regime shift in Antarctic marginal seas was not found; instead, various ocean states can lead to an intrusion of off-shelf waters onto the continental shelf and into the cavities. Whether or not any given forcing or perturbation yields a density imbalance and thus allows for the inflow of warm water depends on the complex interplay between bottom topography, mean ocean state, sea ice processes, and atmospheric conditions. Copyright: