ALBERT

Description: Fire plays an important role in structuring vegetation in fire-prone regions worldwide. Progress has been made towards documenting the effects of individual fire events and fire regimes on vegetation structure; less is known of how different fire history attributes (e.g., time-since-fire, fire frequency) interact to affect vegetation. Using the temperate eucalypt ‘foothill’ forests of south-eastern Australia as a case-study system, we examine two hypotheses about such interactions: 1) that post-fire vegetation succession (e.g., time-since-fire effects) is influenced by other fire regime attributes, and 2) that the severity of the most recent fire overrides the effect of preceding fires on vegetation structure. Empirical data on vegetation structure were collected from 540 sites distributed across central and eastern Victoria, Australia. Linear mixed models were used to examine these hypotheses, and determine the relative influence of fire and environmental attributes on vegetation structure. Fire history measures, particularly time-since-fire, affected several vegetation attributes including ground and canopy strata; others such as low and sub-canopy vegetation were more strongly influenced by environmental characteristics like rainfall. There was little support for the hypothesis that post-fire succession is influenced by fire history attributes other than time-since-fire: only canopy regeneration was influenced by another variable (‘fire type’, representing severity). Our capacity to detect an overriding effect of the severity of the most recent fire was limited by a consistently weak effect of preceding fires on vegetation structure. Overall, results suggest the primary way that fire affects vegetation structure in foothill forests is via attributes of the most recent fire, both its severity and time since its occurrence: other attributes of fire regimes (e.g., fire interval, frequency) have less influence. The strong effect of environmental drivers such as rainfall and topography on many structural features show that foothill forest vegetation is also influenced by factors outside human control. While fire is amenable to human management, results suggest that at broad scales, structural attributes of these forests are relatively resilient to the effects of current fire regimes. Nonetheless, the potential for more frequent severe fires at short intervals, associated with a changing climate and/or fire management, warrant further consideration. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Integral projection models (IPMs) have a number of advantages over matrix-model approaches for analyzing size-structured population dynamics, because the latter require parameter estimates for each age or stage transition. However, IPMs still require appropriate data. Typically they are parameterized using individual-scale relationships between body size and demographic rates, but these are not always available. Here we present an alternative approach for estimating demographic parameters from time series of size-structured survey data using a Bayesian state-space IPM (SSIPM). By fitting an IPM in a state-space framework, we estimate unknown parameters and explicitly account for process and measurement error in a dataset to estimate the underlying process model dynamics. We tested our method by fitting SSIPMs to simulated data; the model fit the simulated size distributions well and estimated unknown demographic parameters accurately. We then illustrated our method using 9 years of annual surveys of the density and size distribution of two fish species (blue rockfish, Sebastes mystinus , and gopher rockfish, S. carnatus ) at seven kelp forest sites in California. The SSIPM produced reasonable fits to the data, and estimated fishing rates for both species that were higher than our Bayesian prior estimates based on coast-wide stock assessment estimates of harvest. That improvement reinforces the value of being able to estimate demographic parameters from local-scale monitoring data. We highlight a number of key decision points in SSIPM development (e.g., open vs. closed demography, number of particles in the state-space filter) so that users can apply the method to their own datasets. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Extensive outbreaks of bark beetles have killed trees across millions of hectares of forests and woodlands in western North America. These outbreaks have led to spirited scientific, public and policy debates about consequential increases in fire risk, especially in the wildland-urban interface (WUI), where homes and communities are at particular risk from wildfires. At the same time, large wildfires have become more frequent across this region. Widespread expectations that outbreaks increase extent, severity and/or frequency of wildfires are based partly on visible and dramatic changes in foliar moisture content and other fuel properties following outbreaks, as well as associated modeling projections. A competing explanation is that increasing wildfires are driven primarily by climatic extremes, which are becoming more common with climate change. However, the relative importance of bark beetle outbreaks versus climate on fire occurrence has not been empirically examined across very large areas and remains poorly understood. The most extensive outbreaks of tree-killing insects across the western United States have been of mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus ponderosae ), which have killed trees over 〉 650,000 km 2 , mostly in forests dominated by lodgepole pine ( Pinus contorta ). Here we show that outbreaks of MPB in lodgepole pine forests of the western United States have been less important than climatic variability for the occurrence of large fires over the past 29 years. In lodgepole pine forests in general, as well as those in the WUI, occurrence of large fires was determined primarily by current and antecedent high temperatures and low precipitation but was unaffected by preceding outbreaks. Trends of increasing co-occurrence of wildfires and outbreaks are due to a common climatic driver rather than interactions between these disturbances. Reducing wildfire risk hinges on addressing the underlying climatic drivers, rather than treating beetle-affected forests. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Extensive mortality of whitebark pine, beginning in the early to mid-2000s, occurred in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) of the western US, primarily from mountain pine beetle but also from other threats such as white pine blister rust. The climatic drivers of this recent mortality and the potential for future whitebark pine mortality from mountain pine beetle are not well understood, yet are important considerations in whether to list whitebark pine as a threatened or endangered species. We sought to increase the understanding of climate influences on mountain pine beetle outbreaks in whitebark pine forests, which are less well understood than in lodgepole pine, by quantifying climate-beetle relationships, analyzing climate influences during the recent outbreak, and estimating the suitability of future climate for beetle outbreaks. We developed a statistical model of the probability of whitebark pine mortality in the GYE that included temperature effects on beetle development and survival, precipitation effects on host tree condition, beetle population size, and stand characteristics. Estimated probability of whitebark pine mortality increased with higher winter minimum temperature, indicating greater beetle winter survival; higher fall temperature, indicating synchronous beetle emergence; lower two-year summer precipitation, indicating increased potential for host tree stress; increasing beetle populations; stand age; and increasing percent composition of whitebark pine within a stand. The recent outbreak occurred during a period of higher-than-normal regional winter temperatures, suitable fall temperatures, and low summer precipitation. In contrast to lodgepole pine systems, area with mortality was linked to precipitation variability even at high beetle populations. Projections from climate models indicate future climate conditions will likely provide favorable conditions for beetle outbreaks within nearly all current whitebark pine habitat in the GYE by the middle of this century. Therefore, when surviving and regenerating trees reach ages suitable for beetle attack, there is strong potential for continued whitebark pine mortality due to mountain pine beetle. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The prediction of mosquito abundance is of central interest in addressing mosquito population dynamics and in forecasting the associated emerging and re-emerging diseases. However, little work has focused on the systematic evaluation of how well adult mosquito abundance can be predicted as a function of observational resolutions, aggregation scales, and prediction lead time. Here we use a state space reconstruction (SSR) approach to compare the predictability of mosquito population dynamics at weekly, biweekly, and monthly scales. We focus on the analysis of Aedes vexans and Culiseta melanura populations monitored in Brunswick County (NC – USA) and find that prediction over a 7-day lead time is improved when daily observations are used, compared to the commonly used once-per-week sample. Our results demonstrate that daily observations of mosquito abundance contribute to improving mosquito predictability in two ways: (1) daily observations better capture fluctuations over short time scales, which are missed when sampling at coarser resolutions, (2) the aggregation of daily abundance observations reduces the impact of noise, thereby increasing the predictability of mosquito population dynamics as the aggregation scale is increased. We show that the evaluation of population dynamical models based on observed and predicted abundance can lead to a spuriously high apparent performance, due to the high auto-correlation in the observations used to update the model state at each successive time step. We show that the comparison of predicted and observed population change, expressed through per capita growth rates, leads to a more informative performance measure. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Climate conditions, such as temperature or precipitation averaged over several decades strongly affect species distributions, as evidenced by experimental results and a plethora of models demonstrating statistical relations between species occurrences and long-term climate averages. However, long-term averages can conceal climate changes that have occurred in recent decades and may not capture actual species occurrence well because the distributions of species, especially at the edges of their range, are typically dynamic and may respond strongly to short-term climate variability. Our goal here was to test whether bird occurrence models can be predicted by either covariates based on short-term climate variability or on long-term climate averages. We parameterized species distribution models (SDMs) based on either short-term variability or long-term average climate covariates for 320 bird species in the conterminous U.S., and tested whether any life-history trait-based guilds were particularly sensitive to short-term conditions. Models including short-term climate variability performed well based on their cross-validated AUC score (0.85), as did models based on long-term climate averages (0.84). Similarly, both models performed well compared to independent presence/absence data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (independent AUC of 0.89 and 0.90, respectively). However, models based on short-term variability covariates more accurately classified true absences for most species (73% of true absences classified within the lowest quarter of environmental suitability versus 68%). In addition, they have the advantage that they can reveal the dynamic relationship between species and their environment because they capture the spatial fluctuations of species potential breeding distributions. With this information we can identify which species and guilds are sensitive to climate variability, identify sites of high conservation value where climate variability is low, and assess how species’ potential distributions may have already shifted due recent climate change. However, long-term climate averages require less data and processing time and may be more readily available for some areas of interest. Where data on short-term climate variability are not available, long-term climate information is a sufficient predictor of species distributions in many cases. However, short-term climate variability data may provide information not captured with long-term climate data for use in SDMs. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Increases in natural or non-crop habitat surrounding agricultural fields have been shown to be correlated with declines in insect crop pests. However, these patterns are highly variable across studies suggesting other important factors, such as abiotic drivers, which are rarely included in landscape models, may also contribute to variability in insect population abundance. The objective of this study was to explicitly account for the contribution of temperature and precipitation, in addition to landscape composition, on the abundance of a widespread insect crop pest, the soybean aphid ( Aphis glycines Matsumura), in Wisconsin soybean fields. We hypothesized that higher soybean aphid abundance would be associated with higher heat accumulation (e.g., growing degree days), and increasing non-crop habitat in the surrounding landscape, due to the presence of the overwintering primary hosts of soybean aphid. To evaluate these hypotheses, we used an ecoinformatics approach that relied on a large dataset collected across Wisconsin over a 9-year period (2003 – 2011), for an average of 235 sites per year (n=2,110 fields total). We determined surrounding landscape composition (1.5-km radius) using publicly available satellite-derived land cover imagery and interpolated daily temperature and precipitation information from the National Weather Service COOP weather station network. We constructed linear mixed models for soybean aphid abundance based on abiotic and landscape explanatory variables and applied model averaging for prediction using an information theoretic framework. Over this broad spatial and temporal extent in Wisconsin, we found that variation in growing season precipitation was positively related to soybean aphid abundance, while higher precipitation during the non-growing season had a negative effect on aphid populations. Additionally, we found that aphid populations were higher in areas with proportionally more forest, but were lower in areas where minor crops, such as small grains, were more prevalent. Thus, our findings support our hypothesis that including abiotic drivers increases our understanding of crop pest abundance and distribution. Moreover, by explicitly modeling abiotic factors, we may be able to explore how variable climate in tandem with land cover patterns may affect current and future insect populations, with potentially critical implications for crop yields and agricultural food webs. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Predator-prey interactions shape ecosystem structure and function, potentially limiting the productivity of valuable species. Simultaneously, stochastic environmental forcing affects species productivity, often through unknown mechanisms. The interacting effects of trophic and environmental conditions complicate management of exploited ecosystems and have motivated calls for more holistic management via ecosystem-based approaches, yet the limitations to these approaches are not widely appreciated. The Chignik salmon fishery in Alaska is managed to achieve maximum sustainable yield for sockeye salmon, though research suggests that predation by less economically valuable, and thus not targeted, coho salmon during juvenile rearing limits the productivity of sockeye salmon. We examined the relationship between historical sockeye salmon recruitment and coho salmon abundance observed in the Chignik system and could not detect a clear effect of coho salmon abundance on sockeye salmon productivity, given existing data. Using simulation models, we examined the probability of detecting a known predation effect on sockeye salmon recruitment in the presence of observation error in coho salmon abundance and stochasticity in sockeye salmon recruitment. Increased recruitment stochasticity reduced the ability to detect predator effects in recruitment, an effect further strengthened when low frequency environmental variation was added to the system. Further, increased observation error biased estimates of predator effects towards zero. Thus, in systems with high observation error on predator abundances, estimates of predation effects will be substantially weaker than true effects. We examined the effects of stochasticity on the ability of an adaptive management program to learn about ecosystem structure and detect an effect of management actions intended to release a prey species from its predators. Simulation models revealed that even under scenarios of large predation effects on sockeye salmon, stochastic recruitment masked detection of an effect of increased coho salmon harvest for nearly a decade. These results highlight the challenges inherent in ecosystem-based management of predator-prey systems due to mismatched time-scales of ecosystem dynamics and the willingness of stakeholders to risk losses in order to test uncertain hypotheses. It is critical for stakeholders considering EBFM and adaptive management strategies to be aware of the potential timelines of perceiving ecosystem change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Timber harvest can adversely affect forest biota. Recent research and application suggest that retention of mature forest elements (‘retention forestry’), including unharvested patches (or ‘aggregates’) within larger harvested units, can benefit biodiversity compared to clearcutting. However, it is unclear whether these benefits can be generalized among the diverse taxa and biomes in which retention forestry is practiced. Lack of comparability in methods for sampling and analysing responses to timber harvest and edge creation presents a challenge to synthesis. We used a consistent methodology (similarly spaced plots or traps along transects) to investigate responses of vascular plants and ground-active beetles to aggregated retention at replicate sites in each of four temperate and boreal forest types on three continents: Douglas-fir forests in Washington, USA; aspen forests in Minnesota, USA; spruce forests in Sweden; and wet eucalypt forests in Tasmania, Australia. We assessed (i) differences in local (plot-scale) species richness and composition between mature (intact) and regenerating (previously harvested) forest; (ii) the lifeboating function of aggregates (capacity to retain species of unharvested forest); and whether intact forests and aggregates (iii) are susceptible to edge effects and (iv) influence the adjacent regenerating forest. Intact and harvested forests differed in composition but not richness of plants and beetles. The magnitude of this difference was generally similar among regions, but there was considerable heterogeneity of composition within and among replicate sites. Aggregates within harvest units were effective at lifeboating for both plant and beetle communities. Edge effects were uncommon even within the aggregates. In contrast, effects of forest influence on adjacent harvested areas were common and as strong for aggregates as for larger blocks of intact forest. Our results provide strong support for the widespread application of aggregated retention in boreal and temperate forests. The consistency of pattern in four very different regions of the world suggests that, for forest plants and beetles, responses to aggregated retention are likely to apply more widely. Our results suggest that through strategic placement of aggregates, it is possible to maintain the natural heterogeneity and biodiversity of mature forests managed for multiple objectives. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Distributions of foliar nutrients across forest canopies can give insight into their plant functional diversity and improve our understanding of biogeochemical cycling. We used airborne remote sensing and Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) to quantify canopy foliar nitrogen (N) across ~164 km 2 of wet lowland tropical forest in the Osa Peninsula, Costa Rica. We determined the relative influence of climate and topography on the observed patterns of canopy foliar N using a gradient boosting model (GBM) technique. At a local scale, where climate and substrate where constant, we explored the influence of slope position on canopy N by quantifying canopy N on remnant terraces, their adjacent slopes and knife edged ridges. In addition, we climbed and sampled 540 trees and analyzed foliar N in order to quantify the role of species identity (phylogeny) and environmental factors in predicting canopy N. Observed canopy N heterogeneity reflected environmental factors working at multiple spatial scales. Across the larger landscape, elevation and precipitation had the highest relative influence on predicting canopy foliar N (30 and 24%), followed by soils (15%), site exposure (9%), compound topographic index (8%), substrate (6%), and landscape dissection (6%). Phylogeny explained ~75% of the variation in the filed collected foliar N data, suggesting that phylogeny largely underpins the response to the environmental factors. Taken together, these data suggest that a large fraction of the variance in canopy N across the landscape is proximately driven by species composition, though ultimately this is likely a response to abiotic factors such as climate and topography. Future work should focus on the mechanisms and feedbacks involved, and how shifts in climate may translate to changes in forest function. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Escalating wildfire in subalpine forests with stand-replacing fire regimes is increasing the extent of early-seral forests throughout the western US. Post-fire succession generates the fuel for future fires, but little is known about fuel loads and their variability in young post-fire stands. We sampled fuel profiles in 24-year-old post-fire lodgepole pine ( Pinus contorta var. latifolia ) stands ( n =82) that regenerated from the 1988 Yellowstone Fires to answer three questions. (1) How do canopy and surface fuel loads vary within and among young lodgepole pine stands? (2) How do canopy and surface fuels vary with pre- and post-fire lodgepole pine stand structure and environmental conditions? (3) How have surface fuels changed between 8 and 24 years post-fire? Fuel complexes varied tremendously across the landscape despite having regenerated from the same fires. Available canopy fuel loads and canopy bulk density averaged 8.5 Mg ha -1 [range 0.0-46.6] and 0.24 kg m 3 [range: 0.0-2.3], respectively, meeting or exceeding levels in mature lodgepole pine forests. Total surface-fuel loads averaged 123 Mg ha -1 [range: 43 - 207], and 88% was in the 1000-hr fuel class. Litter, 1-hr, and 10-hr surface fuel loads were lower than reported for mature lodgepole pine forests, and 1000-hr fuel loads were similar or greater. Among-plot variation was greater in canopy fuels than surface fuels, and within-plot variation was greater than among-plot variation for nearly all fuels. Post-fire lodgepole pine density was the strongest positive predictor of canopy and fine surface fuel loads. Pre-fire successional stage was the best predictor of 100-hr and 1000-hr fuel loads in the post-fire stands and strongly influenced the size and proportion of sound logs (greater when late successional stands had burned) and rotten logs (greater when early successional stands had burned). Our data suggest that 76% of the young post-fire lodgepole pine forests have 1000-hr fuel loads that exceed levels associated with high-severity surface fire potential, and 63% exceed levels associated with active crown fire potential. Fire rotations in Yellowstone National Park are predicted to shorten to a few decades and this prediction cannot be ruled out by a lack of fuels to carry repeated fires. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Management of spatially structured species poses unique challenges. Despite a strong theoretical foundation, practitioners rarely have sufficient empirical data to evaluate how populations interact. Rather, assumptions about connectivity and source-sink dynamics are often based on incomplete, extrapolated or modeled data, if such interactions are even considered at all. Therefore, it has been difficult to evaluate whether spatially structured species are meeting conservation goals. We evaluated how estimated metapopulation structure responded to estimates of population sizes and dispersal probabilities, and to the set of populations included. We then compared outcomes of alternative management strategies that target conservation of metapopulation processes. We illustrated these concepts for Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) in the Snake River, USA. Our description of spatial structure for this metapopulation was consistent with previous characterizations. We found substantial differences in estimated metapopulation structure when we had incomplete information about all populations and when we used different sources of data (3 empirical, 2 modeled) to estimate dispersal, whereas responses to population size estimates were more consistent. Together, these findings suggest that monitoring efforts should target all populations occasionally and populations that play key roles frequently, and that multiple types of data should be collected when feasible. When empirical data are incomplete or of uneven quality, analyses using estimates produced from an ensemble of available datasets can help conservation planners and managers weigh near-term options. Doing so, we found tradeoffs in connectivity and source dominance in metapopulation-level responses to alternative management strategies that suggest which types of approaches may be inherently less risky. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Increasing tree density that followed fire exclusion after the 1880s in the southwestern United States (US) may have also altered nutrient cycles and led to a carbon (C) sink that constitutes a significant component of the US C budget. Yet, empirical data quantifying century-scale changes in C or nutrients due to fire exclusion are rare. We used tree-ring reconstructions of stand structure from five ponderosa pine–dominated sites from across northern Arizona to compare live tree C, nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) storage between the 1880s and 1990s. Live tree biomass in the 1990s contained up to 3 times more C, N, and P than in 1880s. However, the increase in C storage was smaller than values used in recent US C budgets. Furthermore, trees that had established prior to the 1880s accounted for a large fraction (28 to 66%) of the C, N, and P stored in contemporary stands. Overall, our century-scale analysis revealed that forests of the 1880s were on a trajectory to accumulate C and nutrients in trees even in the absence of fire exclusion, either because growing conditions became more favorable after the 1880s or because forests in the 1880s included age or size cohorts poised for accelerated growth. These results may lead to a reduction in the C sink attributed to fire exclusion, and they refine our understanding of reference conditions for restoration management of fire-prone forests. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) was created in response to a request from the Office of Management and Budget that the U.S. Department of Agriculture - Natural Resource Conservation Service (USDA – NRCS) document the societal benefits anticipated to accrue from a major increase in conservation funding authorized by the 2002 Farm Bill. A comprehensive evaluation of the efficacy of rangeland conservation practices cost-shared with private landowners was unable to evaluate conservation benefits because outcomes were seldom documented. Four interrelated suppositions are presented to examine the causes underlying minimal documentation of conservations outcomes. These suppositions are: 1) benefits of conservation practices are considered a certainty so that documentation in not required, 2) minimal knowledge exchange between the USDA-NRCS and research organizations, 3) a paucity of conservation-relevant science, and 4) inadequate technical support for land owners following implementation of conservation practices. We then follow with recommendations to overcome potential barriers to documentation of conservation outcomes identified for each supposition. Collectively, this assessment indicates that the existing conservation practice standards are insufficient to effectively administer large conservation investments on rangelands and that modification of these standards alone will not achieve the goals explicitly stated by CEAP. We recommend that USDA-NRCS modify its conservation programs around a more comprehensive and integrative platform that is capable of implementing evidence-based conservation. Collaborative monitoring organized around landowner-agency-scientist partnerships would represent the focal point of a Conservation Program Assessment Network (CPAN). The primary network objective would be to establish missing information feedback loops between conservation practices and their agricultural and environmental outcomes to promote learning, adaptive management and innovation. Network information would be archived and made available to guide other, related conservation programs in relevant ecoregions. Restructuring conservation programs as recommend above would: 1) provide site specific information, learning and accountability that has been requested by CEAP and, 2) further advance balanced delivery of agricultural production and environmental quality goals. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: To investigate the underlying mechanisms that control long-term recovery of tundra carbon (C) and nutrients after fire, we employed the Multiple Element Limitation (MEL) model to simulate 200-year post-fire changes in the biogeochemistry of three sites along a burn severity gradient in response to increases in air temperature, CO 2 concentration, nitrogen (N) deposition and phosphorus (P) weathering rates. The simulations were conducted for severely burned, moderately burned, and unburned arctic tundra. Our simulations indicated that recovery of C balance after fire was mainly determined by the internal redistribution of nutrients among ecosystem components (controlled by air temperature), rather than the supply of nutrients from external sources (e.g., nitrogen deposition and fixation, phosphorus weathering). Increases in air temperature and atmospheric CO 2 concentration resulted in 1) a net transfer of nutrient from soil organic matter to vegetation, and 2) higher C:nutrient ratios in vegetation and soil organic matter. These changes led to gains in vegetation biomass C but net losses in soil organic C stocks. Under a warming climate, nutrients lost in wildfire were difficult to recover because the warming-induced acceleration in nutrient cycles caused further net nutrient loss from the system through leaching. In both burned and unburned tundra, the warming-caused acceleration in nutrient cycles and increases in ecosystem C stocks were eventually constrained by increases in soil C:nutrient ratios, which increased microbial retention of plant-available nutrients in the soil. Accelerated nutrient turnover, loss of C, and increasing soil temperatures will likely result in vegetation changes, which further regulate the long-term biogeochemical succession. Our analysis should help in the assessment of tundra C budgets and of the recovery of biogeochemical function following fire, which is in turn necessary for the maintenance of wildlife habitat and tundra vegetation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Restoring forest to hundreds of millions of hectares of degraded land has become a centerpiece of international plans to sequester carbon and conserve biodiversity. Forest landscape restoration will require scaling up ecological knowledge of secondary succession from small-scale field studies to predict forest recovery rates in heterogeneous landscapes. However, ecological field studies reveal widely divergent times to forest recovery, in part due to landscape features that are difficult to replicate in empirical studies. Seed rain can determine reforestation rate and depends on landscape features that are beyond the scale of most field studies. We develop mathematical models to quantify how landscape configuration affects seed rain and forest regrowth in degraded patches. The models show how landscape features can alter the successional trajectories of otherwise identical patches, thus providing insight into why some empirical studies reveal a strong effect of seed rain on secondary succession, while others do not. We show that seed rain will strongly limit reforestation rate when patches are near a threshold for arrested succession, when positive feedbacks between tree canopy cover and seed rain occur during early succession, and when directed dispersal leads to between-patch interactions. In contrast, seed rain has weak effects on reforestation rate over a wide range of conditions, including when landscape-scale seed availability is either very high or very low. Our modeling framework incorporates growth and survival parameters that are commonly estimated in field studies of reforestation. We demonstrate how mathematical models can inform forest landscape restoration by allowing land managers to predict where natural regeneration will be sufficient to restore tree cover. Translating quantitative forecasts into spatially-targeted interventions for forest landscape restoration could support target goals of restoring millions of hectares of degraded land and help mitigate global climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Successful pest-mammal eradications from remote islands have resulted in important biodiversity benefits. Near-shore islands can also serve as refuges for native biota but require ongoing effort to maintain low-pest or pest-free status. Three management options are available in the presence of reinvasion risk: (1) control-to-zero density, in which immigration may occur but reinvaders are removed; (2) sustained population suppression (to relatively low numbers); or (3) no action. Biodiversity benefits can result from options 1 and 2. The management challenge is to make evidence-based decisions on the selection of an appropriate objective and to identify a financially feasible control strategy that has a high probability of success. This requires understanding the pest species population dynamics and how it will respond to a range of potential management strategies, each with an associated financial cost. We developed a 2-stage modelling approach that consisted of: (1) Bayesian inferential modelling to estimate parameters for a model of pest population dynamics and control; and (2) a forward projection model to simulate a range of plausible management scenarios and quantify the probability of obtaining zero density within four years. We applied the model to an ongoing, six-year trapping program to control stoats ( Mustela erminea ) on Resolution Island, New Zealand. Zero density has not yet been achieved. Results demonstrate that management objectives were impeded by a combination of a highly fecund population, insufficient trap attractiveness and a substantial proportion of the population that did not enter traps. Immigration is known to occur because the founding population arrived on the island by swimming from the mainland. However, immigration rate during this study was indistinguishable from zero. The forward projection modelling showed that control-to-zero density was feasible but required greater than a 2-fold budget increase to intensify the trapping rate relative to population growth. The 2-stage modelling provides the foundation for a management program in which broad-scale trials of additional trapping effort or improved trap lures would test model predictions and increase our understanding of system dynamics. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The application of physiological measures to conservation monitoring has been gaining momentum and, while a suite of physiological traits are available to ascertain disturbance and condition in wildlife populations, glucocorticoids (i.e., GCs: cortisol and corticosterone) are the most heavily employed. The interpretation of GC levels as sensitive indicators of population change necessitates that GCs and metrics of population persistence are linked. However, the relationship between GCs and fitness may be highly context-dependent, changing direction, or significance, depending on the GC measure, fitness metric, life history stage, or other intrinsic and extrinsic contexts considered. We examined the relationship between baseline plasma corticosterone (CORT) levels measured at two periods of the breeding season and three metrics of fitness (offspring quality, reproductive output, and adult survival) in female tree swallows ( Tachycineta bicolor ). Specifically, we investigated whether: i) a relationship between baseline CORT metrics and fitness exists in our population; ii) whether the inclusion of energetic contexts such as food availability, reproductive investment, or body mass could alter or improve the strength of the relationship between CORT and fitness; iii) whether energetic contexts could better predict fitness compared to CORT metrics. Importantly, we investigated these relationships in both natural conditions and under an experimental manipulation of foraging profitability (feather clipping) to determine the influence of an environmental constraint on GC-fitness relationships. We found a lack of relationship between baseline CORT and both short- and long-term metrics of fitness in control and clipped birds. In contrast, loss in body mass over reproduction positively predicted reproductive output (number of chicks leaving the nest) in control birds; however, the relationship was characterized by a low R 2 (5%), limiting the predictive capacity, and therefore the application potential, of such a measure in a conservation setting. Our results stress the importance of ground-truthing GC-fitness relationships and indicate that baseline GCs will likely not be easily employed as conservation biomarkers across many species and life history stages. Given the accumulating evidence of temporally-dynamic, inconsistent, and context-dependent GC-fitness relationships, placing effort towards directly measuring fitness traits, rather than plasma GC levels, will likely be more worthwhile for many conservation endeavours. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Ecological processes operate across temporal and spatial scales. Anthropogenic disturbances impact these processes, but examinations of scale dependence in impacts are infrequent. Such examinations can provide important insight to wildlife-human interactions and guide management efforts to reduce impacts. We assessed spatiotemporal scale dependence in habitat selection of mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) in the Piceance Basin of Colorado, USA, an area of ongoing natural gas development. We employed a newly developed animal movement method to assess habitat selection across scales defined using animal-centric spatiotemporal definitions ranging from the local (defined from 5 hour movements) to the broad (defined from weekly movements). We extended our analysis to examine variation in scale dependence between night and day and assess functional responses in habitat selection patterns relative to the density of anthropogenic features. Mule deer displayed scale invariance in the direction of their response to energy development features, avoiding well pads and the areas closest to roads at all scales, though with increasing strength of avoidance at coarser scales. Deer displayed scale-dependent responses to most other habitat features, including land cover type and habitat edges. Selection differed between night and day at the finest scales, but homogenized as scale increased. Deer displayed functional responses to development, with deer inhabiting the least developed ranges more strongly avoiding development relative to those with more development in their ranges. Energy development was a primary driver of habitat selection patterns in mule deer, structuring their behaviors across all scales examined. Stronger avoidance at coarser scales suggests that deer behaviorally mediated their interaction with development, but only to a degree. At higher development densities than seen in this area, such mediation may not be possible and thus maintenance of sufficient habitat with lower development densities will be a critical best management practice as development expands globally. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: In saltmarsh plant communities bottom-up pressure from nutrient enrichment is predicted to increase productivity, alter community structure, decrease biodiversity, and alter ecosystem functioning. Previous work supporting these predictions has been based largely on short-term, plot-level (e.g., 1-300 m 2 ) studies, which may miss landscape-level phenomena that drive ecosystem-level responses. We implemented an ecosystem-scale, 9-year nutrient experiment to examine how saltmarsh plants respond to simulated conditions of coastal eutrophication. Our study differed from previous saltmarsh enrichment studies in that we applied realistic concentrations of nitrate (70-100 μM NO 3 - ), the most common form of coastal nutrient enrichment, via tidal water at the ecosystem scale ( ca . 60,000 m 2 creeksheds). Our enrichments added a total of 1,700 kg N creek −1 y −1 , which increased N loading 10-fold versus reference creeks (low-marsh: 171 g N m −2 y −1 ; high-marsh: 19 g N m −2 y −1 ). Nutrients increased the shoot mass and height of low marsh, tall Spartina alterniflora ; however, declines in stem density resulted in no consistent increase in aboveground biomass. High-marsh plants S. patens and stunted S. alterniflora did not respond consistently to enrichment. Nutrient enrichment did not shift community structure, contrary to the prediction of nutrient-driven dominance of S. alterniflora and Distichlis spicata over S. patens . Our mild responses may differ the results of previous studies for a number of reasons. First, the limited response of the high marsh may be explained by loading rates orders of magnitude lower than previous work. Low loading rates in the high marsh reflect infrequent inundation, arguing that inundation patterns must be considered when predicting responses to estuarine eutrophication. Additionally, we applied nitrate instead of the typically-used ammonium, which is energetically favored over nitrate for plant uptake. Thus, the form of nitrogen enrichment used, not just N-load, may be important in predicting plant responses. Overall, our results suggest that when coastal eutrophication is dominated by nitrate and delivered via flooding tidal water, aboveground saltmarsh plant responses may be limited despite moderate-to-high water-column N concentrations. Furthermore, we argue that the methodological limitations of nutrient studies must be considered when using results to inform management decisions about wetlands. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Most species that are negatively impacted when their densities are low aggregate to minimize this effect. Aggregation has the potential to change how Allee effects are expressed at the population level. We studied the interplay between aggregation and Allee effects in the mountain pine beetle ( Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins), an irruptive bark beetle that aggregates to overcome tree defenses. By cooperating to surpass a critical number of attacks per tree, the mountain pine beetle is able to breach host defenses,oviposit and reproduce. Mountain pine beetles and Hymenopteran parasitoids share some biological features, the most notable of which is obligatory host death as a consequence of parasitoid attack and development. We developed spatiotemporal models of mountain pine beetle dynamics that were based on the Nicholson-Bailey framework but which featured beetle aggregation and a tree-level attack threshold. By fitting our models to data from a local mountain pine beetle outbreak, we demonstrate that due to aggregation, attack thresholds at the tree level can be overcome by a surprisingly low ratio of beetles per susceptible tree at the stand level. This results confirms the importance of considering aggregation in models of organisms that are subject to strong Allee effects. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Woody plant encroachment and overall declines in perennial vegetation in dryland regions can alter ecosystem properties and indicate land degradation, but the causes of these shifts remain controversial. Determining how changes in the abundance and distribution of grass and woody plants are influenced by conditions that regulate water availability at a regional scale provides a baseline to which compare how management actions alter the composition of these vegetation types at a more local scale and can be used to predict future shifts under climate change. Using a remote sensing-based approach, we assessed the balance between grasses and woody plants and how climate and topo-edaphic conditions affected their abundances across the northern Sonoran Desert from 1989 to 2009. Despite widespread woody plant encroachment in this region over the last 150 years, we found that leguminous trees, including mesquite ( Prosopis spp.), declined in cover in areas with prolonged drying conditions during the early 21st century. Creosote bush ( Larrea tridentata ) also had moderate decreases with prolonged drying but was buffered from changes on soils with low clay that promote infiltration, and high available water capacity that allows for retention of water at depth. Perennial grasses have expanded and contracted over the last two decades in response to summer precipitation, and were especially dynamic on shallow soils with high clay that have large fluctuations in water availability. Our results suggest that topo-edaphic properties can amplify or ameliorate climate-induced changes in woody plants and perennial grasses. Understanding these relationships has important implications for ecosystem function under climate change in the southwestern U.S. and can inform management efforts to regulate grass-woody plant abundances. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Species-area relationships have long been used to assess patterns of species diversity across scales. Here this concept is extended to spectral diversity using hyperspectral data collected by NASA's Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) over western Michigan. This mixture of mesic forest and agricultural lands offers two end-points on the local-scale diversity continuum – one set of well mixed forest patches and one set of highly homogeneous agricultural patches. Using the sum of the first three principal component values and the principal components’ convex hull volume, spectral diversity was compared within and among these plots and to null expectations for perfectly random and perfectly patchy landscapes. Overall the spectral diversity area relationship confirms the patterns that would be expected for this landscape, but this application suggests that this approach could be extended to less well understood landscapes and could reveal key insights about the relative importance of different drivers of community assembly, even in the absence of additional data about plant functional traits or species’ identities. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Understanding how habitat and nutritional condition affect ungulate populations is necessary for informing management, particularly in areas experiencing carnivore recovery and declining ungulate population trends. Variations in forage species availability, plant phenological stage, and the abundance of forage make it challenging to understand landscape-level effects of nutrition on ungulates. We developed an integrated spatial modeling approach to estimate landscape-level elk ( Cervus elaphus ) nutritional resources in two adjacent study areas that differed in coarse measures of habitat quality and related the consequences of differences in nutritional resources to elk body condition and pregnancy rates. We found no support for differences in dry matter digestibility between plant samples or in phenological stage based on ground sampling plots in the two study areas. Our index of nutritional resources, measured as digestible forage biomass, varied among landcover types and between study areas. We found that altered plant composition following fires was the biggest driver of differences in nutritional resources, suggesting that maintaining a mosaic of fire history and distribution will likely benefit ungulate populations. Study area, lactation status and year affected fall body fat of adult female elk. Elk in the study area exposed to lower summer range nutritional resources had lower nutritional condition entering winter. These differences in nutritional condition resulted in differences in pregnancy rate, with average pregnancy rates of 89% for elk exposed to higher nutritional resources and 72% for elk exposed to lower nutritional resources. Summer range nutritional resources have the potential to limit elk pregnancy rate and calf production, and these nutritional limitations may predispose elk to be more sensitive to the effects of harvest or predation. Wildlife managers should identify ungulate populations that are nutritionally limited and recognize that these populations may be more impacted by recovering carnivores or harvest than populations inhabiting more productive summer habitats. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Novel fire regimes are an important cause and consequence of global environmental change that involve interactions among biotic, climatic, and human components of ecosystems. Plant flammability is key to these interactions, yet few studies directly measure flammability or consider how multiple species with different flammabilities interact to produce novel fire regimes. Deserts of the southwestern USA are an ideal system for exploring how novel fire regimes can emerge when fire-promoting species invade ecosystems comprised of species that did not evolve with fire. In these deserts, exotic annual grasses provide fuel continuity across landscapes that did not historically burn. These fires often ignite a keystone desert shrub, the fire-intolerant creosote bush, Larrea tridentata (DC.) Coville. Ignition of Larrea is likely catalyzed by fuels produced by native plants that grow beneath the shrubs. We hypothesize that invasive and native species exhibit distinct flammability characteristics that in combination determine spatial patterns of fire spread and intensity. We measured flammability metrics of Larrea , two invasive grasses, Schismus arabicus and Bromus madritensis , and two native plants, the sub-shrub Ambrosia dumosa and the annual herb Amsinckia menziesii . Results of laboratory experiments show that the grasses carry fire quickly (1.32 cm/sec), but burn for short duration (0.5 min) at low temperatures. In contrast, native plants spread fire slowly (0.12 cm/sec), but burn up to eight times longer (4 min) and produced hotter fires. Additional experiments on the ignition requirements of Larrea suggest that native plants burn with sufficient temperature and duration to ignite dead Larrea branches (time to ignition: 2 min; temperature at ignition 692 °C). Once burning, these dead branches ignite living branches in the upper portions of the shrub. Our study provides support for a conceptual model in which exotic grasses are “spreaders” of fire and native plants growing beneath shrubs are “igniters” of dead Larrea branches. Once burning, flames produced by dead branches engulf the entire shrub, resulting in locally intense fires without historical precedent in this system. We suggest that fire models and conservation-focused management could be improved by incorporating the distinct flammability characteristics and spatial distributions of spreaders, igniters, and keystone shrubs. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Why some species and lineages are more likely to be invasive than others is one of the most important unanswered questions in basic and applied biology. In particular, the relative contributions to the invasion process of factors like preadaptation to invasiveness in the native range, evolution post-colonization, and random vs. non-random sampling of colonist lineages remain unclear. Here, we use a powerful common garden approach to address the potential for a role for sensitivity to nutrient limitation in determining the invasiveness of particular lineages of Potamopyrgus antipodarum , a New Zealand freshwater snail that has become globally invasive. We quantified specific growth rate (SGR), an important fitness-related trait in this species, under high phosphorus (P) vs. low-P conditions for a diverse set of native and invasive P. antipodarum . This study revealed that native-range P. antipodarum experience a more severe decline in SGR in low-P conditions relative to SGR in high-P conditions than their invasive range counterparts. Although these results suggest resilience to P limitation in invasive lineages, the absence of significant absolute differences in SGR between native and invasive lineages indicates that a straightforward connection between response to P limitation and invasiveness in P. antipodarum is unlikely. Regardless, our data do demonstrate that invasive vs. native lineages of P. antipodarum exhibit consistently different responses to an important environmental variable that is rarely studied in the context of invasion success. Further studies directed at exploring and disentangling the roles of sampling effects, selection on preexisting variation, and evolution after colonization will be required to provide a comprehensive picture of the role (or lack thereof) of nutrient limitation in the global invasion of P. antipodarum as well for as other invasive taxa. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: An increasing number of studies have aimed to clarify the factors leading human groups to prioritize the use of some woody plant species when compared to others. Some of these studies have tested the apparency hypothesis in aiming to understand this phenomenon. According to the apparency hypothesis, the most commonly available local plant species on a forest path are the most useful to that local human population. However, the sparse and diverse nature of the results from studies investigating the factors that influence human exploitation of plant resources motivated us to perform a meta-analysis on the apparency hypothesis. We searched in the main databases (Scopus, Sciencedirect, Google Scholar and Scielo) for studies that correlated the environmental availability of woody species (estimated through vegetation parameters) with the importance degree of such species to the local human population (estimated by means of the use-value index). Overall, this meta-analysis supported the apparency hypothesis, although we also found high levels of heterogeneity in these studies. When the distinct uses of woody flora were considered separately, we found that local species availability is important for fuelwood (firewood and charcoal) and construction (houses, fences, etc.) purposes but does not explain medicinal and technological (object manufacture) plant use. We found no important differences in correlations values between the degree of species importance for people and the different vegetation parameters, although correlations are slightly higher for the dominance and importance value index. Our findings suggest that the exploitation of woody flora is influenced by local availability. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Ecological traps are threats to organisms, and exist in a range of biological systems. A subset of ecological trap theory is the “ethological trap”, whereby behaviors canalized by past natural selection become traps when environments change rapidly. Invasive predators are major threats to imperilled species and their ability to exploit canalized behaviors of naive prey is particularly important for the establishment of the predator and the decline of the native prey. Our study uses ecological theory to demonstrate that invasive predator controls require shifts in management priorities. Total predation rate (i.e., total response) is the product of both the functional response and numerical response of predators to prey. Functional responses are the changes in the rate of prey consumption by individual predators, relative to prey abundance. Numerical responses are the aggregative rates of prey consumption by all predators relative to prey density, which change with predator density via reproduction or migration, in response to changes in prey density. Traditional invasive predator management methods focus on reducing predator populations, and thus manage for numerical responses. These management efforts fail to manage for functional responses, and may not eliminate impacts of highly-efficient individual predators. We explore this problem by modelling the impacts of functional and numerical responses of invasive foxes depredating imperilled Australian turtle nests. Foxes exhibit exceptionally-efficient functional responses. A single fox can destroy 〉95% of turtle nests in a nesting area, which eliminates juvenile recruitment. In this case, the ethological trap is the ‘Arribada’ nesting strategy, an emergent behavior whereby most turtles in a population nest simultaneously in the same nesting grounds. Our models show that Arribada nesting events do not oversaturate foxes, and small numbers of foxes depredate all of the nests in a given Arribada. Widely scattering nests may reduce fox predation rates, but the long generation times of turtles combined with their rapid recent decline suggests that evolutionary changes in nesting strategy may be unlikely. Our study demonstrates that reducing populations of highly-efficient invasive predators is insufficient for preserving native prey species. Instead, management must reduce individual predator efficiency, independent of reducing predator population size. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Changed fire regimes have led to declines of fire-regime-adapted species and loss of biodiversity globally. Fire affects population processes of growth, reproduction and dispersal in different ways, but there is little guidance about the best fire regime(s) to maintain species population processes in fire-prone ecosystems. We use a process-based approach to determine the best range of fire intervals for keystone plant species in a highly-modified Mediterranean ecosystem in south-western Australia where current fire regimes vary. In highly-fragmented areas, fires are few due to limited ignitions and active suppression of wildfire on private land, while in highly connected protected areas fires are frequent and extensive. Using matrix population models, we predict population growth of seven Banksia species under different environmental conditions and patch connectivity, and evaluate the sensitivity of species survival to different fire management strategies and burning intervals. We discover that contrasting, complementary patterns of species life-histories with time since fire result in no single best fire regime. All strategies result in the local patch extinction of at least one species. A small number of burning strategies secure complementary species sets depending on connectivity and post-fire growing conditions. A strategy of no fire always leads to fewer species persisting than prescribed fire or random wildfire, while too-frequent or too-rare burning regimes lead to the possible local extinction of all species. In low landscape connectivity, we find a smaller range of suitable fire intervals, and strategies of prescribed or random burning result in a lower number of species with positive growth rates after 100 years on average compared with burning high connectivity patches. Prescribed fire may reduce or increase extinction risk when applied in combination with wildfire depending on patch connectivity. Poor growing conditions result in a significantly reduced number of species exhibiting positive growth rates after 100 years of management. By exploring the consequences of managing fire, we are able to identify which species are likely to disappear under a given fire regime. Identifying the appropriate complementarity of fire intervals, and their species-specific as well as community-level consequences, is crucial to reduce local extinctions of species in fragmented fire-prone landscapes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Assessments of large-scale disasters, such as the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, are problematic because while measurements of post-disturbance conditions are common, measurements of pre-disturbance baselines are only rarely available. Without adequate observations of pre-disaster organismal and environmental conditions, it is impossible to assess the impact of such catastrophes on animal populations and ecological communities. Here, we use long-term biological tissue records to provide pre-disaster data for a vulnerable marine organism. Keratin samples from the carapace of loggerhead sea turtles record the foraging history for up to 18 years, allowing us to evaluate the effect of the oil spill on sea turtle foraging patterns. Samples were collected from 76 satellite-tracked adult loggerheads in 2011 and 2012, approximately one to two years after the spill. Of the ten individuals that foraged in areas exposed to surface oil, none demonstrated significant changes in foraging patterns post spill. The observed long-term fidelity to foraging sites indicates that loggerheads in the northern Gulf of Mexico likely remained in established foraging sites, regardless of the introduction of oil and chemical dispersants. More research is needed to address potential long-term health consequences to turtles in this region. Mobile marine organisms present challenges for researchers to monitor effects of environmental disasters, both spatially and temporally. We demonstrate that biological tissues can reveal long-term histories of animal behavior and provide critical pre-disaster baselines following an anthropogenic disturbance or natural disaster. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Increasing temperatures have resulted in reduced growth and increased tree mortality across large areas of western North American forests. Here we use tree-ring isotope chronologies (δ 13 C & δ 18 O) from live and dead trees from four locations in south-central Alaska to test whether white spruce trees killed by recent spruce beetle ( Dendroctonus rufipennis Kirby) outbreaks showed evidence of drought stress prior to death. Trees that were killed were more sensitive to spring/summer temperature and/or precipitation than trees that survived. At two of our sites we found greater correlations between the δ 13 C and δ 18 O chronologies and spring/summer temperatures in dead trees than in live trees, suggesting that trees that are more sensitive to temperature-induced drought stress are more likely to be killed. At one site, the difference between δ 13 C in live and dead trees was related to winter/spring precipitation, with dead trees showing stronger correlations between δ 13 C and precipitation, again suggesting increased water stress in dead trees. At all sites where δ 18 O was measured, δ 18 O chronologies showed the greatest difference in climate response between live and dead groups, with δ 18 O in live trees correlating more strongly with late winter precipitation than dead trees. Our results indicate that sites where trees are already sensitive to warm or dry early growing-season conditions experienced the most beetle-kill, which has important implications for forecasting future mortality events in Alaska. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Understanding the impacts of natural and human disturbances on forest biota is critical for improving forest management. Many studies have examined the separate impacts on fauna and flora of wildfire, conventional logging and salvage logging, but empirical comparisons across a broad gradient of simultaneous disturbances are lacking. We quantified species richness and frequency of occurrence of vascular plants, and functional group responses, across a gradient of disturbances that occurred concurrently in 2009 in the Mountain Ash forests of southeastern Australia. Our study encompassed replicated sites in undisturbed forest (~70 years post-fire), forest burned at low severity, forest burned at high severity, unburned forest that was clearcut logged, and forest burned at high severity that was clearcut salvage logged post-fire. All sites were sampled two and three years post-fire. Mean species richness decreased across the disturbance gradient from 30.1 spp/site on low severity burned sites and 28.9 spp/site on high severity burned sites, to 25.1 spp/site on clearcut sites and 21.7 spp/site on salvage logged sites. Low severity burned sites were significantly more species-rich than clearcut sites and salvage logged sites; high severity burned sites supported greater species richness than salvage logged sites. Specific traits influenced species’ sensitivity to disturbance. Resprouting species dominated undisturbed Mountain Ash forests, but declined significantly across the gradient. Fern and midstory trees decreased significantly in frequency of occurrence across the gradient. Ferns (excluding Bracken) decreased from 34% of plants in undisturbed forest to 3% on salvage logged sites. High severity burned sites supported a greater frequency of occurrence and species richness of midstory trees compared to clearcut and salvage logged sites. Salvage logging supported fewer midstory trees than any other disturbance category, and were distinctly different from clearcut sites. Plant life form groups, including midstory trees, shrubs and ferns, were dominated by very few species on logged sites. The differences in biotic response across the gradient of natural and human disturbances have significant management implications, particularly the need to reduce mechanical disturbance overall and to leave specific areas with no mechanical disturbance across the cut area during logging operations, to ensure the persistence of resprouting taxa. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: We review and synthesize information on invasions of nonnative forest insects and diseases in the United States, including their ecological and economic impacts, pathways of arrival, distribution within the United States, and policy options for reducing future invasions. Nonnative insects have accumulated in United States forests at a rate of ~2.5 per yr over the last 150 yr. Currently the two major pathways of introduction are importation of live plants and wood packing material such as pallets and crates. Introduced insects and diseases occur in forests and cities throughout the United States, and the problem is particularly severe in the Northeast and Upper Midwest. Nonnative forest pests are the only disturbance agent that has effectively eliminated entire tree species or genera from United States forests within decades. The resulting shift in forest structure and species composition alters ecosystem functions such as productivity, nutrient cycling, and wildlife habitat. In urban and suburban areas, loss of trees from streets, yards, and parks affects aesthetics, property values, shading, stormwater runoff, and human health. The economic damage from nonnative pests is not yet fully known, but is likely in the billions of dollars per year, with the majority of this economic burden borne by municipalities and residential property owners. Current policies for preventing introductions are having positive effects but are insufficient to reduce the influx of pests in the face of burgeoning global trade. Options are available to strengthen the defenses against pest arrival and establishment, including measures taken in the exporting country prior to shipment, measures to ensure clean shipments of plants and wood products, inspections at ports of entry, and post-entry measures such as quarantines, surveillance, and eradication programs. Improved data collection procedures for inspections, greater data accessibility, and better reporting would support better evaluation of policy effectiveness. Lack of additional action places the nation, local municipalities, and property owners at high risk of further damaging and costly invasions. Adopting stronger policies to reduce establishments of new forest insects and diseases would shift the major costs of control to the source and alleviate the economic burden now borne by homeowners and municipalities.

Description: Droughts and their negative effects on forest ecosystems are projected to increase under climate change for many regions. It has been suggested that intensive thinning could reduce drought impacts on established forests in the short-term. Most previous studies on the effect of thinning on drought impacts, however, have been confined to single forest sites. It is therefore still unclear how general and persisting the benefits of thinning are. This study assesses the potential of thinning to increase drought tolerance of the wide spread Scots pine ( Pinus sylvestris ) in Central Europe. We hypothesized 1) that increasing thinning intensity benefits the maintenance of radial growth of crop trees during drought (resistance) and its recovery following drought, 2) that those benefits to growth decrease with time elapsed since the last thinning and with stand age, and 3) that they may depend on drought severity as well as water limitations in pre- and post-drought periods. To test these hypotheses, we assessed the effects of thinning regime, stand age, and drought severity on radial growth of 129 Scots pine trees during and after drought events in 4 long-term thinning experiments in Germany. We find that thinning improved the recovery of radial growth following drought and to a lesser extent the growth resistance during a drought event. Growth recovery following drought was highest after the first thinning intervention and in recently and heavily thinned stands. With time since the last thinning, however, this effect decreased and could even become negative when compared to unthinned stands. Further, thinning helped to avoid an age-related decline in growth resistance (and recovery) following drought. The recovery following drought, but not the resistance during drought, was related to water limitations in the drought period. This is the first study that analyzed drought-related radial growth in trees of one species across several stands of different age. The interaction between thinning intensity and time since the last thinning underline the importance to distinguish between short- and long-term effects of thinning. According to our analysis, only thinning regimes, with relatively heavy and frequent thinning interventions would increase drought tolerance in pine stands. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Humans have a profound effect on fire regimes by increasing the frequency of ignitions. Although ignition is an integral component of understanding and predicting fire, to date fire models have not been able to isolate the ignition location, leading to inconsistent use of anthropogenic ignition proxies. Here, we identified fire ignitions from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) burned area product (2000-2012) to create the first remotely sensed, consistently derived, and regionally comprehensive fire ignition data set for the western United States. We quantified the spatial relationships between several anthropogenic land use/disturbance features and ignition for ecoregions within the study area, and used hierarchical partitioning to test how the anthropogenic predictors of fire ignition vary among ecoregions. The degree to which anthropogenic features predicted ignition varied considerably by ecoregion, with the strongest relationships found in the Marine West Coast Forest and North American Desert ecoregions. Similarly, the contribution of individual anthropogenic predictors varied greatly among ecoregions. Railroad corridors and agricultural presence tended to be the most important predictors of anthropogenic ignition while population density and roads were generally poor predictors. Although human population has often been used as a proxy for ignitions at global scales, it is less important at regional scales when more specific land uses (e.g., agriculture) can be identified. The variability of ignition predictors among ecoregions suggests that human activities have heterogeneous impacts in altering fire regimes within different vegetation types and geographies. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: In their commentary on our recent article, “Where have all the people gone? Enhancing global Conservation using night lights and social media” (Levin et al., 2015), Tortato and Izzo (2016) agree with the manuscript's approach and major conclusion. However, Tortato and Izzo (2016) state that some of the areas identified by Levin et al. (2015) as “unprotected visitation hotspots” (page 2162) are actually located “in and around protected areas of the Pantanal.” Tortato and Izzo (2016) suggest that this mismatch may result from incompleteness of the version of the World Database on Protected Areas that we used in our global analysis (being from August 2013). This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Patterns of migratory connectivity are a vital yet poorly understood component of the ecology and evolution of migratory birds. Our ability to accurately characterize patterns of migratory connectivity is often limited by the spatial resolution of the data but recent advances in probabilistic assignment approaches have begun pairing stable isotopes with other sources of data (e.g., genetic and mark-recapture) to improve the accuracy and precision of inferences based on a single marker. Here, we combine stable isotopes and geographic variation in morphology (wing length) to probabilistically assign Wood thrush (Hylocichla mustilena) captured on the wintering grounds to breeding locations. In addition, we use known origin samples to validate our model and assess potentially important impacts of covariates of isotopic and morphological data (age, sex and breeding location). Our results show that despite relatively high levels of mixing across their breeding and non-breeding ranges, moderate levels of migratory connectivity along an east-west gradient exist. In addition, combining stable isotopes with geographic variation in wing improved the precision of breeding assignments by 10% and 37% compared to assignments based on isotopes alone or wing length alone, respectively. These results demonstrate that geographical variation in morphological traits can greatly improve estimates of migratory connectivity when combined with other intrinsic markers (e.g., stable isotopes or genetic data). The wealth of morphological data available from museum specimens across the world represents a tremendously valuable, but largely untapped, resource that is widely applicable for quantifying patterns of migratory connectivity.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Predicting how climate change is likely to interact with myriad other stressors that threaten species of conservation concern is an essential challenge in aquatic ecosystems. This study provides a framework to accomplish this task in salmon-bearing streams of the northwestern United States, where land-use related reductions in riparian shading have caused changes in stream thermal regimes, and additional warming from projected climate change may result in significant losses of coldwater fish habitat over the next century. Predatory non-native smallmouth bass have also been introduced into many northwestern streams and their range is likely to expand as streams warm, presenting an additional challenge to the persistence of threatened Pacific salmon. The goal of this work was to forecast the interactive effects of climate change, riparian management, and non-native species on stream-rearing salmon, and to evaluate the capacity of restoration to mitigate these effects. We intersected downscaled global climate forecasts with a local-scale water temperature model to predict mid- and end-of-century temperatures in streams in the Columbia River basin; we compared one stream that is thermally impaired due to the loss of riparian vegetation and another that is cooler and has a largely intact riparian corridor. Using the forecasted stream temperatures in conjunction with fish-habitat models, we predicted how stream-rearing Chinook salmon and bass distributions would change as each stream warmed. In the highly modified stream, end-of-century warming may cause near total loss of Chinook salmon rearing habitat and a complete invasion of the upper watershed by bass. In the less modified stream, bass were thermally restricted from the upstream-most areas. In both systems, temperature increases resulted in higher predicted spatial overlap between stream-rearing Chinook salmon and potentially predatory bass in the early summer (2-4-fold increase) and greater abundance of bass. We found that riparian restoration could prevent the extirpation of Chinook salmon from the more altered stream, and could also restrict bass from occupying the upper 31 km of salmon rearing habitat. The proposed methodology and model predictions are critical for prioritizing climate-change adaptation strategies before salmonids are exposed to both warmer water and greater predation risk by non-native species.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Efforts to test and improve terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) using a variety of data sources have become increasingly common. However, geographically extensive forest inventories have been under-exploited in previous model-data fusion efforts. Inventory observations of forest growth, mortality, and biomass integrate processes across a range of time scales, including slow time-scale processes such as species turnover, that are likely to have important effects on ecosystem responses to environmental variation. However, the large number (thousands) of inventory plots precludes detailed measurements at each location, so that uncertainty in climate, soil properties, and other environmental drivers may be large. Errors in driver variables, if ignored, introduce bias into model-data fusion. We estimated errors in climate and soil drivers at U.S. Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plots, and we explored the effects of these errors on model-data fusion with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory LM3V dynamic global vegetation model. When driver errors were ignored or assumed small at FIA plots, responses of biomass production in LM3V to precipitation and soil available water capacity appeared steeper than the corresponding responses estimated from FIA data. These differences became non-significant if driver errors at FIA plots were assumed large. Ignoring driver errors when optimizing LM3V parameter values yielded estimates for fine-root allocation that were larger than biometric estimates, which is consistent with the expected direction of bias. To explore if complications posed by driver errors could be circumvented by relying on intensive study sites where driver errors are small, we performed a power analysis. To accurately quantify the response of biomass production to spatial variation in mean annual precipitation within the eastern U.S. would require at least 40 intensive study sites, which is larger than the number of sites typically available for individual biomes in existing plot networks. Driver errors may be accommodated by several existing model-data fusion approaches, including hierarchical Bayesian methods and ensemble filtering methods; however, these methods are computationally expensive. We propose a new approach, in which the TBM functional response is fit directly to the driver-error-corrected functional response estimated from data, rather than to the raw observations.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Much of our understanding of natural forest dynamics in the temperate region of Europe is based on observational studies in old-growth remnants that have emphasized small-scale gap dynamics and equilibrium stand structure and composition. Relatively little attention has been given to the role of infrequent disturbance events in forest dynamics. In this study, we analyzed dendroecological data from four stands and three windthrow patches in an old-growth landscape in the Dinaric Mountains of Bosnia and Herzegovina to examine disturbance history, tree life history traits, and compositional dynamics. Over all stands, most decades during the past 340 years experienced less than 10% canopy loss, yet each stand showed evidence of periodic intermediate severity disturbances that removed 〉 40% of the canopy, some of which were synchronized over the study area landscape. Analysis of radial growth patterns indicated several life history differences among the dominant canopy trees; beech was markedly older than fir, while growth patterns of dead and dying trees suggested fir was able to tolerate longer periods of suppressed growth in shade. Maple had the fastest radial growth and accessed the canopy primarily through rapid early growth in canopy gaps, whereas most beech and fir experienced a period of suppressed growth prior to canopy accession. Peaks in disturbance were roughly linked to increased recruitment, but mainly of shade tolerant beech and fir; less tolerant species (i.e. maple, ash, and elm) recruited successfully on some of the windthown sites where advance regeneration of beech and fir was less abundant. The results challenge the traditional notions of stability in temperate old-growth of Europe and highlight the non-equilibrial nature of canopy composition due to unique histories of disturbance and tree life history differences. These findings provide valuable information for developing natural disturbance-based silvicultural systems, as well as insight into maintaining less shade tolerant, but valuable broadleaved trees in temperate forests of Europe.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 23, Issue 6, Page 1322-1330, September 2013. Cities produce considerable ecological light pollution (ELP), yet the effects of artificial night lighting on biological communities and ecosystem function have not been fully explored. From June 2010 to June 2011, we surveyed aquatic emergent insects, riparian arthropods entering the water, and riparian spiders of the family Tetragnathidae at nine stream reaches representing common ambient ELP levels of Columbus, Ohio, USA, streams (low, 0.1–0.5 lux; moderate, 0.6–2.0 lux; high, 2.1–4.0 lux). In August 2011, we experimentally increased light levels at the low- and moderate-treatment reaches to 10–12 lux to represent urban streams exposed to extremely high levels of ELP. Although season exerted the dominant influence on invertebrate fluxes over the course of the year, when analyzed by season, we found that light strongly influenced multiple invertebrate responses. The experimental light addition resulted in a 44% decrease in tetragnathid spider density (P = 0.035), decreases of 16% in family richness (P = 0.040) and 76% in mean body size (P = 0.022) of aquatic emergent insects, and a 309% increase in mean body size of terrestrial arthropods (P = 0.015). Our results provide evidence that artificial light sources can alter community structure and ecosystem function in streams via changes in reciprocal aquatic–terrestrial fluxes of invertebrates.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 23, Issue 6, Page 1357-1366, September 2013. Examining the causes of interspecific differences in susceptibility to bidirectional land-use changes (land abandonment and use-intensification) is important for understanding the mechanisms of global biodiversity loss in agricultural landscapes. We tested the hypothesis that rare (endangered) plant species prefer wet and oligotrophic areas within topography- and management-mediated resource (soil water content, nutrient, and aboveground biomass) gradients, making them more susceptible to both abandonment and use-intensification of agricultural lands. We demonstrated that topography and management practices generated resource gradients in seminatural grasslands around traditional paddy terraces. Terraced topography and management practices produced a soil moisture gradient within levees and a nutrient gradient within paddy terraces. Both total and rare species diversity increased with soil water content. Total species diversity increased in more eutrophied areas with low aboveground biomass, whereas rare species diversity was high under oligotrophic conditions. Rare and common species were differentially distributed along the human-induced nutrient gradient, with rare species preferring wet, nutrient-poor environments in the agricultural landscapes studied. We suggest that conservation efforts should concentrate on wet, nutrient-poor areas within such landscapes, which can be located easily using land-use and topography maps. This strategy would reduce the costs of finding and conserving rare grassland species in a given agricultural landscape.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 23, Issue 6, Page 1429-1442, September 2013. Carryover effects occur when experiences early in life affect an individual's performance at a later stage. Many studies have shown carryover effects to be important for future performance. However, it is currently unclear whether variation in later environments could overwhelm factors from an earlier life stage. We were interested in whether similar patterns would emerge under the same experimental design with similar taxa. To examine this, we implemented a four-way factorial experimental design with different forestry practices on three species of anurans (each examined in different years) in the aquatic larval environment and terrestrial juvenile environment in outdoor mesocosms in central Missouri, USA. Using Cormack-Jolly-Seber mark–recapture models implemented in program MARK, we investigated whether one environment or both environments best predicted terrestrial juvenile survival. We found only limited evidence of carryover effects for one of three species in one time period. These were the effects of time to metamorphosis and body condition at metamorphosis predicting leopard frog (Lithobates sphenocephalus) survival. However, both effects were counterintuitive and/or very weak. For wood frogs (L. sylvaticus), all of the variables predicting survival had confidence intervals that included zero, but very low survival may have limited our ability to estimate parameters. The terrestrial environment was important for predicting survival in both American toads (Anaxyrus americanus) and southern leopard frogs. The partial harvest forest tended to increase survival relative to control forest and early-successional forest in American toads. Alternately, early-successional forest with downed wood removed increased survival for leopard frogs, but this treatment was no different from control forest for American toads. Previous studies have shown negative effects of recent clearcuts on terrestrial amphibians. It appears that vegetative regrowth after just a few years can mitigate these initial negative effects. Our study shows that variation in later environments probably can overwhelm variation from earlier environments. However, previous evidence of carryover effects suggests that more research is needed to predict when carryover effects are likely to occur.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 23, Issue 6, Page 1475-1487, September 2013. Statistical indicators such as rising variance and rising skewness in key system parameters may provide early warning of “regime shifts” in communities and populations. However, the utility of these indicators has rarely been tested in the large, complex ecosystems that are of most interest to managers. Crustacean fisheries in the Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea experienced a series of collapses beginning in the 1970s, and we used spatially resolved catch data from these fisheries to test the predictions that increasing variability and skewness would precede stock collapse. Our data set consisted of catch data from 14 fisheries (12 collapsing and two non-collapsing), spanning 278 cumulative years. Our sampling unit for analysis was the Alaska Department of Fish and Game statistical reporting area (mean n for individual fisheries = 42 areas, range 7–81). We found that spatial variability in catches increased prior to stock collapse: a random-effects model estimating trend in variability across all 12 collapsing fisheries showed strong evidence of increasing variability prior to collapse. Individual trends in variability were statistically significant for only four of the 12 collapsing fisheries, suggesting that rising variability might be most effective as an indicator when information from multiple populations is available. Analyzing data across multiple fisheries allowed us to detect increasing variability 1–4 years prior to collapse, and trends in variability were significantly different for collapsing and non-collapsing fisheries. In spite of theoretical expectations, we found no evidence of pre-collapse increases in catch skewness. Further, while models generally predict that rising variability should be a transient phenomenon around collapse points, increased variability was a persistent feature of collapsed fisheries in our study. We conclude that this result is more consistent with fishing effects as the cause of increased catch variability, rather than the critical slowing down that is the driver of increased variability in regime shift models. While our results support the use of rising spatial variability as a leading indicator of regime shifts, the failure of our data to support other model-derived predictions underscores the need for empirical validation before these indicators can be used with confidence by ecosystem managers.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Determining the range of a species and exploring species-habitat associations are central questions in ecology and can be answered by analyzing presence-absence data. Often, both the sampling of sites and the desired area of inference involve neighboring sites; thus positive spatial autocorrelation between these sites is expected. Using survey data for the Southern ground hornbill (Bucorvus leadbeateri) from the Southern African Bird Atlas Project, we compared advantages and disadvantages of three increasingly complex models for species occupancy: an occupancy model that accounted for nondetection but assumed all sites were independent, and two spatial occupancy models that accounted for both nondetection and spatial autocorrelation. We modeled the spatial autocorrelation with an intrinsic conditional autoregressive (ICAR) model and with a restricted spatial regression (RSR) model. Both spatial models can readily be applied to any other gridded, presence-absence data set using a newly introduced R package. The RSR model provided the best inference and was able to capture small-scale variation that the other models did not. It showed that ground hornbills are strongly dependent on protected areas in the north of their South African range but less so further south. The ICAR models did not capture any spatial autocorrelation in the data, and they took an order of magnitude longer than the RSR models to run. Thus, the RSR occupancy model appears to be an attractive choice for modeling occurrences at large spatial domains, while accounting for imperfect detection and spatial autocorrelation.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Our increasing dependence on a small number of agricultural crops such as corn is leading to reductions in agricultural biodiversity. Reductions in the number of crops in rotation or the replacement of rotations by monocultures are responsible for this loss of biodiversity. The belowground implications of simplifying agricultural plant communities remain unresolved; however, agroecosystem sustainability will be severely compromised if reductions in biodiversity reduce soil C and N concentrations, alter microbial communities, and degrade soil ecosystem functions as reported in natural communities. We conducted a meta-analysis of 122 studies to examine crop rotation effects on total soil C and N concentrations, and the faster cycling microbial biomass C and N pools that play key roles in soil nutrient cycling and physical processes such as aggregate formation. We specifically examined how rotation crop type and management practices influence C and N dynamics in different climates and soil types. We found that adding one or more crops in rotation to a monoculture increased total soil C by 3.6% and total N by 5.3%, but when rotations included a cover crop (i.e. crops that are not harvested but produced to enrich the soil and capture inorganic N), total C increased by 8.5% and total N 12.8%. Rotations substantially increased the soil microbial biomass C (20.7%) and N (26.1%) pools, and these overwhelming effects on microbial biomass were not moderated by crop type or management practices. Crop rotations, especially those that include cover crops, sustain soil quality and productivity by enhancing soil C, N and microbial biomass, making them a cornerstone for sustainable agroecosystems.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Tropical forests play a vital role in the global carbon cycle, but the amount of carbon they contain and its spatial distribution remain uncertain. Recent studies suggest that once tree height is accounted for in biomass calculations, in addition to diameter and wood density, carbon stock estimates are reduced in many areas. However, it is possible that larger crown sizes might offset the reduction in biomass estimates in some forests where tree heights are lower because even comparatively short trees develop large, well-lit crowns in or above the forest canopy. While current allometric models and theory focus on diameter, wood density, and height, the influence of crown size and structure has not been well studied. To test the extent to which accounting for crown parameters can improve biomass estimates, we harvested and weighed 51 trees (11-169 cm diameter) in southwestern Amazonia where no direct biomass measurements have been made. The trees in our study had nearly half of total aboveground biomass in the branches (44 ± 2 %), demonstrating the importance of accounting for tree crowns. Consistent with our predictions, key pantropical equations that include height, but do not account for crown dimensions, underestimated the sum total biomass of all 51 trees by 11 to 14 %, primarily due to severe underestimates of many of the largest trees. In our models, including crown radius greatly improves performance and reduces error, especially for the largest trees. In addition, over the full dataset, crown radius marginally explained more variation in aboveground biomass (10.5 %) than height (6.0 %). Crown form is also important: trees with a monopodial architectural type are estimated to have 21-44 % less mass than trees with other growth patterns. Our analysis suggests that accounting for crown allometry would substantially improve the accuracy of tropical estimates of tree biomass and its distribution in primary and degraded forests.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Tropical forests are important storehouses of carbon and biodiversity. In isolated island ecosystems such as the Hawaiian Islands, relative dominance of native and non-native tree species may influence patterns of forest carbon stocks and biodiversity. We determined aboveground carbon density (ACD) across a matrix of lava flows differing in age, texture and vegetation composition (i.e., native or non-native dominated) in wet lowland forests of Hawaii Island. To do this at the large scales necessary to accurately capture the inherent heterogeneity of these forests, we collected LiDAR data across areas of interest and developed relationships between LiDAR metrics and field-based estimates of forest ACD. This approach enabled us to inventory, rather than merely sample, the entire populations (i.e., forests) of interest. Native Hawaiian wet lowland forests exhibited ACD values similar to those of intact tropical forests elsewhere. In general, ACD of these forests increased with increasing lava flow age, but patterns differed between native and non-native forest stands. On the youngest lavas, native-dominated forest ACD averaged 〈 60 Mg ha-1 compared to ca. 100 Mg C ha-1 for non-native dominated forests. This difference was due to the presence of the non-native, N2-fixing trees, F. moluccana and C. equisetifolia in the non-native dominated forest stands, as well as the corresponding absence of N2-fixing trees in native-dominated forest stands. Following approximately 500 years of primary succession and thereafter, however, both forest types exhibited ACD values averaging ca. 130 Mg C ha-1, although it took non-native forests only 75 to 80 years of post-establishment succession to reach those values. Given the large areas of early successional M. polymorpha-dominated forest on young lava flows, further spread of F. moluccana and C. equisetifolia populations would likely increase ACD stocks but would constitute a significant erosion of the invaluable contribution of Hawaii's native ecosystems to global biodiversity.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Despite the importance of fire and herbivory in structuring savanna systems, few replicated experiments have examined the interactive effects of herbivory and fire on plant dynamics. In addition, the effects of fire on associated ant-tree mutualisms have been largely unexplored. We carried out small controlled burns in each of 18 herbivore treatment plots of the Kenya Long-term Exclosure Experiment (KLEE), where experimentally excluding elephants has resulting in 42% greater tree densities. The KLEE design includes six different herbivore treatments that allowed us to examine how different combinations of megaherbivore wildlife, mesoherbivore wildlife, and cattle affect fire temperatures and subsequent loss of ant symbionts from Acacia trees. Before burning, we quantified herbaceous fuel loads and plant community composition. We tagged all trees, measured their height and basal diameter, and identified the resident ant species on each. We recorded weather conditions during the burns and used ceramic tiles painted with fire-sensitive paints to estimate fire temperatures at different heights and in different microsites (under versus between trees). Across all treatments, fire temperatures were highest at 0-50cm off the ground and hotter in the grass under trees than in the grassy areas between trees. Plots with more trees burned hotter than plots with fewer trees, perhaps because of greater fine woody debris. Plots grazed by wildlife and by cattle prior to burning had lower herbaceous fuel loads and experienced lower burn temperatures than ungrazed plots. Many trees lost their ant colonies during the burns. Ant survivorship differed by ant species, and at the plot level was positively associated with previous herbivory (and lower fire temperatures). Across all treatments, ant colonies on taller trees were more likely to survive, but even some of the tallest trees lost their ant colonies. Our study marks a significant step in understanding the mechanisms that underlie the interactions between fire and herbivory in savanna ecosystems.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 23, Issue 7, Page 1531-1543, October 2013. While the area of organic crop production increases at a global scale, the potential interactions between pest management in organic and conventionally managed systems have so far received little attention. Here, we evaluate the landscape-level co-dependence of insecticide-based and natural enemy-based pest management using a simulation model for parasitoid–host interactions in landscapes consisting of conventionally and organically managed fields. In our simulations conventional management consists of broad-spectrum or selective insecticide application, while organic management involves no insecticides. Simulations indicate that insecticide use can easily result in lose–lose scenarios whereby both organically and conventionally managed fields suffer from increased pest loads as compared to a scenario where no insecticides are used, but that under some conditions insecticide use can be compatible with biocontrol. Simulations also suggest that the pathway to achieve the insecticide reduction without triggering additional pest pressure is not straightforward, because increasing the proportion of organically managed fields or reducing the spray frequency in conventional fields can potentially give rise to dramatic increases in pest load. The disruptive effect of insecticide use, however, can be mitigated by spatially clustering organic fields and using selective insecticides, although the effectiveness of this mitigation depends on the behavioral traits of the biocontrol agents. Poorly dispersing parasitoids and parasitoids with high attack rates required a lower amount of organically managed fields for effective pest suppression. Our findings show that the transition from a landscape dominated by conventionally managed crops to organic management has potential pitfalls; intermediate levels of organic management may lead to higher pest burdens than either low or high adoption of organic management.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 23, Issue 7, Page 1603-1618, October 2013. The regional spatial scale is a vital linkage for the informed extrapolation of results from local to continental scales to address broad-scale environmental problems. Among-region variation in ecosystem state is commonly accounted for by using a regionalization framework, such as an ecoregion classification. Rarely have alternative regionalization frameworks been tested for variables measuring ecosystem state, nor have the underlying relationships with the variables that are used to define them been assessed. In this study, we asked two questions: (1) How much among-region variation is there for ecosystems and does it differ by regionalization framework? (2) What are the likely causes of this among-region variation? We present a case study using a large data set of lake water chemistry, uni- and multi-scaled hydrogeomorphic and anthropogenic driver variables that likely influence lake chemistry at the subcontinental scale, and seven existing regionalization frameworks. We used multilevel models to quantify and explain within- and among-region variation in lake water chemistry. Our models account for local driver variables of ecosystem variation within regions, differences in regional mean ecosystem state (i.e., random intercepts in multilevel models), and differences in relationships between local drivers and ecosystem state by region (i.e., random slopes in multilevel models). Using one of the best performing regionalization frameworks (Ecological Drainage Units), we found that for lake phosphorus and alkalinity: (1) a majority of all the variation in water chemistry among the studied lakes occurred among regions, (2) very few regional-scale landscape driver variables were required to explain among-region variation in lake water chemistry, (3) a much higher proportion of the total variation among lakes was explained at the regional scale than at the local scale, and (4) some relationships between local-scale driver variables and lake water chemistry varied by region. Our results demonstrate the importance of considering the regional spatial scale for broad-scale research and ecosystem management and conservation. Our quantitative approach can be easily applied to other response variables, ecosystem types, geographic areas, and spatial extents to inform ecosystem responses to global environmental stressors.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 23, Issue 7, Page 1544-1553, October 2013. Invasive species are costly and difficult to control. In order to gain a mechanistic understanding of potential control measures, individual-based models uniquely parameterized to reflect the salient life-history characteristics of invasive species are useful. Using invasive Australian Rhinella marina as a case study, we constructed a cohort- and individual-based population simulation that incorporates growth and body size of terrestrial stages. We used this allometric approach to examine the efficacy of nontraditional control methods (i.e., tadpole alarm chemicals and native meat ants) that may have indirect effects on population dynamics mediated by effects on body size. We compared population estimates resulting from these control methods with traditional hand removal. We also conducted a sensitivity analysis to investigate the effect that model parameters, specifically those associated with growth and body size, had on adult population estimates. Incremental increases in hand removal of adults and juveniles caused nonlinear decreases in adult population estimates, suggesting less return with increased investment in hand-removal efforts. Applying tadpole alarm chemicals or meat ants decreased adult population estimates on the same level as removing 15–25% of adults and juveniles by hand. The combined application of tadpole alarm chemicals and meat ants resulted in ∼80% decrease in adult abundance, the largest of any applied control method. In further support of the nontraditional control methods, which greatly affected the metamorph stage, our model was most sensitive to changes in metamorph survival, juvenile survival, metamorph growth rate, and adult survival. Our results highlight the use and insights that can be gained from individual-based models that incorporate growth and body size and the potential success that nontraditional control methods could have in controlling established, invasive Rhinella marina populations.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 23, Issue 7, Page 1659-1676, October 2013. This paper proposes a hierarchical Bayesian framework for modeling the life cycle of marine exploited fish with a spatial perspective. The application was developed for a nursery-dependent fish species, the common sole (Solea solea), on the Eastern Channel population (Western Europe). The approach combined processes of different natures and various sources of observations within an integrated framework for life-cycle modeling: (1) outputs of an individual-based model for larval drift and survival that provided yearly estimates of the dispersion and mortality of eggs and larvae, from spawning grounds to settlement in several coastal nurseries; (2) a habitat suitability model, based on juvenile trawl surveys coupled with a geographic information system, to estimate juvenile densities and surface areas of suitable juvenile habitat in each nursery sector; (3) a statistical catch-at-age model for the estimation of the numbers-at-age and the fishing mortality on subadults and adults. The approach provided estimates of hidden variables and parameters of key biological significance. A simulation approach provided insight to the robustness of the approach when only weak data are available. Estimates of spawning biomass, fishing mortality, and recruitment were close to the estimations derived from stock-assessment working groups. In addition, the model quantified mortality along the life cycle, and estimated site-specific density-dependent mortalities between settled larvae and age-0 juveniles in each nursery ground. This provided a better understanding of the productivity and the specific contribution of each nursery ground toward recruitment and population renewal. Perspectives include further development of the modeling framework on the common sole and applications to other fish species to disentangle the effects of multiple interacting stress factors (e.g., estuarine and coastal nursery habitat degradation, fishing pressure) on population renewal and to develop risk analysis in the context of marine spatial planning for sustainable management of fish resources.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. The process of disease transmission is determined by the interaction of host susceptibility and exposure to parasite infectious stages. Host behavior is an important determinant of the likelihood of exposure to infectious stages, but is difficult to measure and often assumed to be homogenous in models of disease spread. We evaluated the importance of precisely defining host contact when using networks that estimate exposure and predict infection prevalence in a replicated, empirical system. In particular, we hypothesized that infection patterns would be predicted only by a contact network that is defined according to host behavior and parasite life-cycle. Two competing host contact criteria were used to construct networks defined by parasite life-cycle and social contacts. First, parasite defined contacts were based on shared space with a time-delay corresponding to the environmental development time of nematode parasites with a direct fecal-oral life-cycle. Second, social contacts were defined by shared space in the same time period. To quantify the competing networks of exposure and infection, we sampled natural populations of the eastern chipmunk and infection of their gastro-intestinal helminth community using replicated longitudinal capture-mark-recapture techniques. We predicted that 1) infection with parasites with direct fecal-oral life-cycles would be explained by the time-delay contact network but not the social contact network; 2) infection with parasites with trophic life-cycles (via a mobile intermediate host, thus, spatially decoupling transmission from host contact) would not be explained by either contact network. The prevalence of fecal-oral life-cycle nematode parasites was strongly correlated to the number and strength of network connections from the parasite-defined network (including the time-delay), while the prevalence of trophic life-cycle parasites was not correlated with any network metrics. We concluded that incorporating the parasite life-cycle, relative to the way that exposure is measured, is key to inferring transmission and can be empirically quantified using network techniques. In addition, appropriately defining and measuring contacts according the life-history of the parasite and relevant behaviors of the host is a crucial step in applying network analyses to empirical systems.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 23, Issue 4, Page 766-776, June 2013. Autogenic ecosystem engineers are critically important parts of many marine and estuarine systems because of their substantial effect on ecosystem services. Oysters are of particular importance because of their capacity to modify coastal and estuarine habitats and the highly degraded status of their habitats worldwide. However, models to predict dynamics of ecosystem engineers have not previously included the effects of exploitation. We developed a linked population and habitat model for autogenic ecosystem engineers undergoing exploitation. We parameterized the model to represent eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) in upper Chesapeake Bay by selecting sets of parameter values that matched observed rates of change in abundance and habitat. We used the model to evaluate the effects of a range of management and restoration options including sustainability of historical fishing pressure, effectiveness of a newly enacted sanctuary program, and relative performance of two restoration approaches. In general, autogenic ecosystem engineers are expected to be substantially less resilient to fishing than an equivalent species that does not rely on itself for habitat. Historical fishing mortality rates in upper Chesapeake Bay for oysters were above the levels that would lead to extirpation. Reductions in fishing or closure of the fishery were projected to lead to long-term increases in abundance and habitat. For fisheries to become sustainable outside of sanctuaries, a substantial larval subsidy would be required from oysters within sanctuaries. Restoration efforts using high-relief reefs were predicted to allow recovery within a shorter period of time than low-relief reefs. Models such as ours, that allow for feedbacks between population and habitat dynamics, can be effective tools for guiding management and restoration of autogenic ecosystem engineers.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. A simple population model is developed to evaluate the role of plastic and evolutionary life history changes on sustainable exploitation rates. Plastic changes are embodied in density-dependent compensatory adjustments to somatic growth rate and larval/juvenile survival, which can compensate for the reductions in reproductive lifetime and mean population fecundity that accompany the higher adult mortality imposed by exploitation. Evolutionary changes are embodied in the selective pressures that higher adult mortality imposes on age at maturity, length at maturity, and reproductive investment. Analytical development, based on a biphasic growth model, leads to simple equations that show explicitly how sustainable exploitation rates are bounded by each of these effects. We show that density-dependent growth combined with a fixed length at maturity and fixed reproductive investment can support exploitation-driven mortality that is 80% of the level supported by evolutionary changes in maturation and reproductive investment. Sustainable fishing mortality is proportional to natural mortality (M) times the degree of density-dependent growth, as modified by both the degree of density-dependent early survival and the minimum harvestable length. We apply this model to estimate sustainable exploitation rates for North American walleye populations (Sander vitreus). Our analysis of demographic data from walleye populations spread across a broad latitudinal range indicates that density-dependent variation in growth rate can vary by a factor of two. Implications of this growth response are generally consistent with empirical studies suggesting that optimal fishing mortality is approximately 0.75M for teleosts. This approach can be adapted to the management of other species, particularly when significant exploitation is imposed on many, widely distributed but geographically isolated populations.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Long-term fire exclusion has altered ecological function in many forested ecosystems in North America. The invasion of fire-sensitive tree species into formerly pyrogenic upland forests in the southeastern USA has resulted in dramatic shifts in surface fuels that have been hypothesized to cause reductions in plant community flammability. The mechanism for the reduced flammability or "mesophication" has lacked empirical study. Here we evaluate a potential mechanism of reduced flammability by quantifying moisture retention (response time and initial moisture capacity) of foliar litter beds from 17 southeastern tree species spanning a wide range of fire tolerance. K-means cluster analysis resulted in four species groups: a rapidly drying cluster of eight species; a five species group that absorbed little water, but desorbed slowly; a two species group that absorbed substantial moisture but desorbed rapidly; and a two species cluster that absorbed substantial moisture and dried slowly. Fire-sensitive species were segregated into the slow moisture loss clusters while fire-tolerant species tended to cluster in the rapid drying groups. Principal Components Analysis indicated that several leaf characteristics correlated with absorption capacity and drying rates. Thin-leaved species with high surface area:volume absorbed the greatest moisture content, while those with large, curling leaves had the fastest drying rates. The dramatic shifts in litter fuels as a result of invasion by fire-sensitive species generate a positive feedback that reduce the windows of ignition, thereby facilitating the survival, persistence, and continued invasion of fire-sensitive species in the uplands of the southeastern USA.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 23, Issue 4, Page 936-943, June 2013. A typical way to quantify aboveground carbon in forests is to measure tree diameters and use species-specific allometric equations to estimate biomass and carbon stocks. Using “citizen scientists” to collect data that are usually time-consuming and labor-intensive can play a valuable role in ecological research. However, data validation, such as establishing the sampling error in volunteer measurements, is a crucial, but little studied, part of utilizing citizen science data. The aims of this study were to (1) evaluate the quality of tree diameter and height measurements carried out by volunteers compared to expert scientists and (2) estimate how sensitive carbon stock estimates are to these measurement sampling errors. Using all diameter data measured with a diameter tape, the volunteer mean sampling error (difference between repeated measurements of the same stem) was 9.9 mm, and the expert sampling error was 1.8 mm. Excluding those sampling errors 〉1 cm, the mean sampling errors were 2.3 mm (volunteers) and 1.4 mm (experts) (this excluded 14% [volunteer] and 3% [expert] of the data). The sampling error in diameter measurements had a small effect on the biomass estimates of the plots: a volunteer (expert) diameter sampling error of 2.3 mm (1.4 mm) translated into 1.7% (0.9%) change in the biomass estimates calculated from species-specific allometric equations based upon diameter. Height sampling error had a dependent relationship with tree height. Including height measurements in biomass calculations compounded the sampling error markedly; the impact of volunteer sampling error on biomass estimates was ±15%, and the expert range was ±9%. Using dendrometer bands, used to measure growth rates, we calculated that the volunteer (vs. expert) sampling error was 0.6 mm (vs. 0.3 mm), which is equivalent to a difference in carbon storage of ±0.011 kg C/yr (vs. ±0.002 kg C/yr) per stem. Using a citizen science model for monitoring carbon stocks not only has benefits in educating and engaging the public in science, but as demonstrated here, can also provide accurate estimates of biomass or forest carbon stocks.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 23, Issue 4, Page 710-725, June 2013. Decision-makers charged with implementing ecosystem-based management (EBM) rely on scientists to predict the consequences of decisions relating to multiple, potentially conflicting, objectives. Such predictions are inherently uncertain, and this can be a barrier to decision-making. The Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources requires managers of Southern Ocean fisheries to sustain the productivity of target stocks, the health and resilience of the ecosystem, and the performance of the fisheries themselves. The managers of the Antarctic krill fishery in the Scotia Sea and southern Drake Passage have requested advice on candidate management measures consisting of a regional catch limit and options for subdividing this among smaller areas. We developed a spatially resolved model that simulates krill–predator–fishery interactions and reproduces a plausible representation of past dynamics. We worked with experts and stakeholders to identify (1) key uncertainties affecting our ability to predict ecosystem state; (2) illustrative reference points that represent the management objectives; and (3) a clear and simple way of conveying our results to decision-makers. We developed four scenarios that bracket the key uncertainties and evaluated candidate management measures in each of these scenarios using multiple stochastic simulations. The model emphasizes uncertainty and simulates multiple ecosystem components relating to diverse objectives. We summarize the potentially complex results as estimates of the risk that each illustrative objective will not be achieved (i.e., of the state being outside the range specified by the reference point). This approach allows direct comparisons between objectives. It also demonstrates that a candid appraisal of uncertainty, in the form of risk estimates, can be an aid, rather than a barrier, to understanding and using ecosystem model predictions. Management measures that reduce coastal fishing, relative to oceanic fishing, apparently reduce risks to both the fishery and the ecosystem. However, alternative reference points could alter the perceived risks, so further stakeholder involvement is needed to identify risk metrics that appropriately represent their objectives.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Understanding tree growth as a function of tree size is important for a multitude of ecological and management applications. Determining what limits growth is of central interest, and forest inventory permanent plots are an abundant source of long-term information but are highly complex. Observation error and multiple sources of shared variation (spatial plot effects, temporal repeated measures, and a mosaic of sampling intervals) make these data challenging to use for growth estimation. We account for these complexities and incorporate potential limiting factors (tree size, competition, and resource supply) into a hierarchical state-space model. We estimate the diameter growth of white fir Abies concolor in the Sierra Nevada of California from forest inventory data, showing that estimating such a model is feasible in a Bayesian framework using readily available modeling tools. In this forest, white fir growth depends strongly on tree size, total plot basal area, and unexplained variation between individual trees. Plot-level resource supply variables (reflecting light, water, and nutrient availability) do not have a strong impact on inventory-size trees. This approach can be applied to many permanent forest plots, leading to greater ecological insights on tree growth.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Acoustic sensors can be used to estimate species richness for vocal species such as birds. They can continuously and passively record large volumes of data over extended periods. This data must subsequently be analysed to detect the presence of vocal species. Automated analysis of acoustic data for large numbers of species is complex and can be subject to high levels of false positive and false negative results. Manual analysis by experienced surveyors can produce accurate results, however the time and effort required to process even small volumes of data can make manual analysis prohibitive. This study examined the use of sampling methods to reduce the cost of analysing large volumes of acoustic sensor data, while retaining high levels of species detection accuracy. Utilising five days of manually analysed acoustic sensor data from four sites, we examined a range of sampling frequencies and methods including random, stratified and biologically informed. We found that randomly selecting 120 one-minute samples from the three hours immediately following dawn over five days of recordings, detected the highest number of species. On average, this method detected 62% of total species from 120 one-minute samples, compared to 34% of total species detected from traditional area search methods. Our results demonstrate that targeted sampling methods can provide an effective means for analysing large volumes of acoustic sensor data efficiently and accurately. Development of automated and semi-automated techniques are required to assist in analysing large volumes of acoustic sensor data.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Ecological systems often exhibit resilient states that are maintained through negative feedbacks. In ponderosa pine forests, fire historically represented the negative feedback mechanism that maintained ecosystem resilience; fire exclusion reduced that resilience, predisposing transition to an alternative ecosystem state upon reintroduction of fire. We evaluated the effects of reintroduced frequent wildfire in unlogged, fire-excluded ponderosa pine forest in the Bob Marshall Wilderness, Montana, USA. Initial reintroduction of fire in 2003 reduced tree density and consumed surface fuels, but also stimulated establishment of a dense cohort of lodgepole pine, maintaining a trajectory towards an alternative state. Resumption of a frequent fire regime by a second fire in 2011 restored a low-density forest dominated by large-diameter ponderosa pine by eliminating many regenerating lodgepole pines and by continuing to remove surface fuels and small-diameter lodgepole pine and Douglas-fir that established during the fire suppression era. Our data demonstrate that some unlogged, fire-excluded ponderosa pine forests possess latent resilience to reintroduced fire. A passive model of simply allowing lightning-ignited fires to burn appears to be a viable approach to restoration of such forests.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 23, Issue 6, Page 1396-1409, September 2013. Hydrologic connectivity is critical to the structure, function, and dynamic process of river ecosystems. Dams, road crossings, and water diversions impact connectivity by altering flow regimes, behavioral cues, local geomorphology, and nutrient cycling. This longitudinal fragmentation of river ecosystems also increases genetic and reproductive isolation of aquatic biota such as migratory fishes. The cumulative effects on fish passage of many structures along a river are often substantial, even when individual barriers have negligible impact. Habitat connectivity can be improved through dam removal or other means of fish passage improvement (e.g., ladders, bypasses, culvert improvement). Environmental managers require techniques for comparing alternative fish passage restoration actions at alternative or multiple locations. Herein, we examined a graph-theoretic algorithm for assessing upstream habitat connectivity to investigate both basic and applied fish passage connectivity problems. First, we used hypothetical watershed configurations to assess general alterations to upstream fish passage connectivity with changes in watershed network topology (e.g., linear vs. highly dendritic) and the quantity, location, and passability of each barrier. Our hypothetical network modeling indicates that locations of dams with limited passage efficiency near the watershed outlet create a strong fragmentation signal but are not individually sufficient to disconnect the system. Furthermore, there exists a threshold in the number of dams beyond which connectivity declines precipitously, regardless of watershed topology and dam configuration. Watersheds with highly branched configurations are shown to be less susceptible to disconnection as measured by this metric. Second, we applied the model to prioritize barrier improvement in the mainstem of the Truckee River, Nevada, USA. The Truckee River application demonstrates the ability of the algorithm to address conditions common in fish passage projects including incomplete data, parameter uncertainty, and rapid application. This study demonstrates the utility of a graph-theoretic approach for assessing fish passage connectivity in dendritic river networks assuming full basin utilization for a given species, guild, or community of concern.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. A unique high temporal frequency dataset from an irrigated cotton-wheat rotation was used to test the agroecosystem model DayCent to simulate daily N2O emissions from sub-tropical vertisols under different irrigation intensities. DayCent was able to simulate the effect of different irrigation intensities on N2O fluxes and yield, although it tended to overestimate seasonal fluxes during the cotton season. DayCent accurately predicted soil moisture dynamics and the timing and magnitude of high fluxes associated with fertilizer additions and irrigation events. At the daily scale we found a good correlation of predicted vs. measured N2O fluxes (r2 = 0.52), confirming that DayCent can be used to test agricultural practices for mitigating N2O emission from irrigated cropping systems. A 25 year scenario analysis indicated that N2O losses from irrigated cotton-wheat rotations on black vertisols in Australia can be substantially reduced by an optimized fertilizer and irrigation management system (i.e. frequent irrigation, avoidance of excessive fertiliser application), while sustaining maximum yield potentials.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Mangroves are recognized to possess a variety of ecosystem services including high rates of carbon sequestration and storage. Deforestation and conversion of these ecosystems continue to be high and have been predicted to result in significant carbon emissions to the atmosphere. Yet few studies have quantified the carbon stocks or losses associated with conversion of these ecosystems. In this study we quantified the ecosystem carbon stocks of three common mangrove types of the Caribbean as well as that of abandoned shrimp ponds in areas formerly occupied by mangrove; a common land use conversion of mangroves in the world. In the mangroves of the Montecristi Province in Northwest Dominican Republic, we found C stocks ranged from 706 to 1131 Mg/ha. The medium statured mangroves (3-10m ht) had the highest C stocks while the tall (〉10 m ht)) mangroves had the lowest ecosystem carbon storage. Carbon stocks of the low mangrove (shrub) type (

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Recent changes in sanitary policies by European Union (EU) concerning disposal of carcasses of domestic animals and the increase of non-natural mortality factors as illegal poisoning are threatening European vultures. However, the effects of anthropogenic actions in demographic parameters are poorly studied. Using a long-term study (1994-2011) of the threatened Pyrenean bearded vulture Gypaetus barbatus population, we assess the variation in the proportion of breeding pairs, egg-laying dates, clutch size, productivity, breeding success and survival following a sharp reduction in food availability in 2005. To test such variations we used Cusum tests (from the field of statistical process control) and multi-event capture-recapture modeling to estimate changes in survival probabilities. We found a delay in laying dates, and a regressive trend in clutch size, productivity, flight rate and survival. The maintenance of specific supplementary feeding stations for bearded vultures likely reduced the negative effects of illegal poisoning and food shortages, which mainly affected sub-adult survival. According to the Cusum test, demographic parameters suffered a significant shift after 2005 coinciding with a reduction in the food supply for the avian scavenger guild. Changes in food availability may have produced changes in demographic parameters and an increase in mortality due to an increased exposure to contaminated food. As a result supplementary feeding used as a precautionary measure can be a useful tool to reduce illegal poisoning and shifts in demographic parameters until precedent food availability scenarios are achieved. This study shows how anthropogenic actions through human health regulations affecting habitat quality can suddenly modify demographic parameters in long-lived raptors. Because in natural processes the variation of biological parameters is usually slow and gradual, and because randomness and environmental stochasticity makes it difficult to detect changes in the absence of a large number of records, the use of Cusum test constitutes a useful tool for studies in the field of ecology and evolution.

Description: Ecological Applications, Volume 0, Issue 0, Ahead of Print. Under a rapidly warming climate, a critical management issue in semi-arid forests of western North America is how to increase forest resilience to wildfire. We evaluated relationships between fuel reduction treatments and burn severity in the 2006 Tripod Complex fires which burned over 70,000 ha of mixed conifer forests in the North Cascades range of Washington State and involved 387 past harvest and fuel treatment units. A secondary objective was to investigate other drivers of burn severity including landform, weather, vegetation characteristics, and a recent mountain pine beetle outbreak. We used sequential autoregression (SAR) to evaluate drivers of burn severity, represented by the Relative differenced Normalized Burn Ratio index, in two study areas that are centered on early progressions of the wildfire complex. Significant predictor variables include treatment type, landform (elevation), fire weather (minimum relative humidity and maximum temperature), and vegetation characteristics including canopy closure, cover type, and mountain pine beetle attack. Recent mountain pine beetle damage was a statistically significant predictor variable with red and mixed classes of beetle attack associated with higher burn severity. Treatment age and size were only weakly correlated with burn severity and may be partly explained by the lack of treatments older than 30 years and low rates of fuel succession in these semi-arid forests. Even during extreme weather, fuel conditions and landform strongly influenced patterns of burn severity. Fuel treatments that included recent prescribed burning of surface fuels were particularly effective at mitigating burn severity. Although surface and canopy fuel treatments are unlikely to substantially reduce the area burned in regional fire years, recent research including this study suggests that they can be an effective management strategy for increasing forest landscape resilience to wildfires.

Description: Understanding the causes of within- and among-population differences in vital rates, life histories, and population dynamics is a central topic in ecology. To understand how within- and among-population variation emerges, we need long-term studies that include episodic events and contrasting environmental conditions, data to characterize individual and shared variation, and statistical models that can tease apart shared and individual contribution to the observed variation. We used long-term tag-recapture data to investigate and estimate within- and among-population differences in vital rates, life histories and population dynamics of marble trout Salmo marmoratus , an endemic freshwater salmonid with a narrow range. Only ten populations of pure marble trout persist in headwaters of Alpine rivers in western Slovenia. Marble trout populations are also threatened by floods and landslides, which have already caused the extinction of two populations in recent years. We estimated and determined causes of variation in growth, survival, and recruitment both within and among populations, and evaluated trade-offs between them. Specifically, we estimated the responses of these traits to variation in water temperature, density, sex, early life conditions, and extreme events. We found that the effects of population density on traits were mostly limited to the early stages of life and that growth trajectories were established early in life. We found no clear effects of water temperature on vital rates. Population density varied over time, with flash floods and debris flows causing massive mortalities (〉55% decrease in survival with respect to years with no floods) and threatening population persistence. Apart from flood events, variation in population density within streams was largely determined by variation in recruitment, with survival of older fish being relatively constant over time within populations, but substantially different among populations. Marble trout show a fast–to-slow continuum of life histories, with slow growth associated with higher survival at the population level, possibly determined by food conditions and age at maturity. Our work provides unprecedented insight into the causes of variation in vital rates, life histories, and population dynamics in an endemic species that is teetering on the edge of extinction. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The control of vector mosquitoes is one of the biggest challenges facing humankind with the use of chemical pesticides often leading to environmental impact and the evolution of resistance. Although to a lesser extent, this also holds for Bacillus thuringiensis israelensis ( Bti ), the most widely used biological pesticide to control mosquito populations. This raises the need for the development of integrated pest management strategies that allow the reduction of Bti concentrations without loss of the mosquito control efficiency. To this end, we tested in a laboratory experiment the combined effects of larval exposure to a sublethal Bti concentration and predation risk cues on life history and physiology of larval and adult Culex pipiens mosquitoes. Besides natural predator kairomones and prey alarm cues, we also tested synthetic kairomones of Notonecta predators. Neither Bti nor predation risk cues affected mortality, yet when both stressors were combined mortality increased on average by 133% compared to the treatment with only predation risk cues. This synergistic interaction was also present when Bti was combined with synthetic kairomones. This was further reflected in changes of the composite index of population performance, which suggested lowered per capita growth rates in mosquitoes exposed to Bti but only when Bti was combined with synthetic kairomones. Furthermore, predation risk cues shortened larval development time, reduced mass at metamorphosis in males, and had an immunosuppressive effect in larval and adult mosquitoes which may affect the mosquito vector competence. We provide the first demonstration that synthetic kairomones may generate similar effects on prey as natural kairomones. The identified immunosuppressive effect of synthetic kairomones and the novel lethal synergism type between a biological pesticide and synthetic predator kairomones provide an important proof of principle illustrating the potential of this combination for integrated mosquito control and should in a next step be evaluated under more natural conditions. It may guide novel integrated pest management programs with Bti that incorporate synthetic kairomones and thereby can reduce environmental impact and evolution of resistance creating more efficient and sustainable mosquito control.

Description: The delivery of ecosystem services by mobile organisms depends on the distribution of those organisms, which is, in turn, affected by resources at local and landscape scales. Pollinator-dependent crops rely on mobile animals like bees for crop production, and the spatial relationship between floral resources and nest location for these central-place foragers influences the delivery of pollination services. Current models that map pollination coverage in agricultural regions utilize landscape-level estimates of floral availability and nesting incidence inferred from expert opinion, rather than direct assessments. Foraging distance is often derived from proxies of bee body size, rather than direct measurements of foraging that account for behavioral responses to floral resource type and distribution. The lack of direct measurements of nesting incidence and foraging distances may lead to inaccurate mapping of pollination services. We examined the role of local-scale floral resource presence from hedgerow plantings on nest incidence of ground-nesting bees in field margins and within monoculture, conventionally managed sunflower fields in California's Central Valley. We tracked bee movement into fields using fluorescent powder. We then used these data to simulate the distribution of pollination services within a crop field. Contrary to expert opinion, we found that ground-nesting native bees nested both in fields and edges, though nesting rates declined with distance into field. Further, we detected no effect of field-margin floral enhancements on nesting. We found evidence of an exponential decay rate of bee movement into fields, indicating that foraging predominantly occurred in less than 1% of medium-sized bees' predicted typical foraging range. Although we found native bees nesting within agricultural fields, their restricted foraging movements likely centralize pollination near nest sites. Our data thus predict a heterogeneous distribution of pollination services within sunflower fields, with edges receiving higher coverage than field centers. To generate more accurate maps of services, we advocate directly measuring the autecology of ecosystem service providers, which vary by crop system, pollinator species, and region. Improving estimates of the factors affecting pollinator populations can increase the accuracy of pollination service maps and help clarify the influence of farming practices on wild bees occurring in agricultural landscapes.

Description: Many migratory species are in decline and understanding these declines is challenging because individuals occupy widely divergent and geographically distant habitats during a single year and therefore populations across the range are interconnected in complex ways. Network modeling has been used to show, theoretically, that shifts in migratory connectivity patterns can occur in response to habitat or climate changes and that habitat loss in one region can affect sub-populations in regions that are not directly connected. Here, we use a network model, parameterized by integrating long-term monitoring data with direct tracking of ~100 individuals, to explain population trends in the rapidly declining Wood Thrush ( Hylocichla mustelina ) and to predict future trends. Our model suggests that species-level declines in Wood Thrush are driven primarily by tropical deforestation in Central America but that protection of breeding habitat in some regions is necessary to prevent shifts in migratory connectivity and to sustain populations in all breeding regions. The model illustrates how shifts in migratory connectivity may lead to unexpected population declines in key regions. We highlight current knowledge gaps that make modeling full life-cycle population demographics in migratory species challenging but also demonstrate that modeling can inform conservation while these gaps are being filled.

Description: Large and severe wildfires have raised concerns about the future of forested landscapes in the southwestern United States, especially under repeated burning. In 2011, under extreme weather and drought conditions, the Las Conchas fire burned over several previous burns as well as forests not recently exposed to fire. Our purpose was to examine the influences of prior wildfires on plant community composition and structure, subsequent burn severity, and vegetation response. To assess these relationships, we used satellite-derived measures of burn severity and a nonmetric multidimensional scaling of pre- and post- Las Conchas field samples. Earlier burns were associated with shifts from forested sites to open savannas and meadows, oak scrub, and ruderal communities. These non-forested vegetation types exhibited both resistance to subsequent fire, measured by reduced burn severity, and resilience to reburning, measured by vegetation recovery relative to forests not exposed to recent prior fire. Previous shifts toward non-forested states were strongly reinforced by reburning. Ongoing losses of forests and their ecological values confirm the need for restoration interventions. However, given future wildfire and climate projections, there may also be opportunities presented by transformations toward fire-resistant and resilient vegetation types within portions of the landscape.

Description: Many invasive species experience intense intraspecific competition, because they are abundant in anthropogenically disturbed habitats where few native species persist. Species-specific competitive mechanisms that evolve in this context may offer novel, highly targeted means to control invasive taxa. We conducted laboratory experiments to evaluate the feasibility of this method of control, based on waterborne cues that are produced by tadpoles of the cane toad ( Rhinella marina ) to suppress the development of conspecific embryos. Our trials examined the nature and species-specificity of the effect, the robustness of the cue to freezing and storage, and the amounts required to suppress toad embryos. Our results were encouraging. The cue appears to be chemical rather than a biological organism, and may well be species-specific; the four species of native anurans that we tested were not influenced by toad larval cues. The cue retains its effectiveness after being frozen, but not after being dried, or after 7 d in water. It is effective at very low concentrations (the amount produced by three tadpoles within 750 L of water). Overall, the cane toad's suppressor pheromone may offer an effective new way to control invasive toads.

Description: Estimating extinction vulnerability for a large number of species presents significant challenges for researchers, but is of high importance considering the large number of species that are currently unassessed. We present a method using a type of artificial neural network (self organizing map; SOM), which utilizes the co-occurrence patterns of species to estimate each species’ vulnerability to extinction. We use this method on Australian bird assemblages and compare the SOM-generated rankings for vulnerability with assessments from the IUCN Red List for those species in which populations have actually been estimated. For species that have had their populations estimated, the SOM performed well in distinguishing those species ranked of least concern by IUCN from those species in one of the other IUCN categories. Further, 19 species that were identified as highly vulnerable by the SOM analysis have never had their populations estimated and have been ranked by the IUCN of least concern. We show how the SOM can identify spatial variation in vulnerability for a species, and identify those regions in Australia in which the resident species have the greatest levels of vulnerability (central Australia). We conclude that the SOM provides a useful tool for researchers and agencies dealing with conservation strategies focused on large numbers of species and we urge a more detailed assessment of the 19 bird species identified by this analysis as vulnerable to extinction.

Description: Human activities have exerted a powerful influence on the biogeochemical cycles of nitrogen (N) and carbon (C) and drive changes that can be a challenge to predict given the influence of multiple environmental stressors. This study focused on understanding how land management and climate change have together influenced terrestrial N storage and watershed inorganic N export across boreal and sub-arctic landscapes in northern Sweden. Using long-term discharge and nutrient concentration data that have been collected continuously for over three decades, we calculated the hydrologic inorganic N export from nine watersheds in this region. We found a consistent decline in inorganic N export from 1985 to 2011 over the entire region from both small and large watersheds, despite the absence of any long-term trend in river discharge during this period. The steepest declines in inorganic N export were observed during the growing season, consistent with the hypothesis that observed changes are biologically mediated and are not the result of changes in long-term hydrology. Concurrent with the decrease in inorganic N export, we report sustained increases in terrestrial N accumulation in forest biomass and soils across northern Sweden. Given the close communication of nutrient and energy stores between plants, soils, and waters, our results indicate a regional tightening of the N cycle in an already N-limited environment as a result of changes in forest management and climate-mediated growth increases. Our results are consistent with declining inorganic N efflux previously reported from small headwater streams in other ecosystems and shed new light on the mechanisms controlling these patterns by identifying corresponding shifts in the terrestrial N balance, which have been altered by a combination of management activities and climate change.

Description: Rural landscapes face changing climate, shifting development pressure, and loss of agricultural land. Perennial bioenergy crops grown on existing agricultural land may provide an opportunity to conserve rural landscapes while addressing increased demand for biofuels. However, increased bioenergy production and changing land use raise concerns for tradeoffs within the food–energy–environment trilemma. Heterogeneity of climate, soils, and land use complicate assessment of bioenergy potential in complex landscapes, creating challenges to evaluating future tradeoffs. The hypothesis addressed herein is that perennial bioenergy production can provide an opportunity to avoid agricultural land conversion to development. Using a process-based crop model, we assessed potential bioenergy crop growth through 2100 in a southern Appalachian Mountain region and asked: (1) how mean annual yield differed among three crops (switchgrass Panicum virgatum , giant miscanthus Miscanthus × giganteus , and hybrid poplar Populus × sp.) under current climate and climate change scenarios resulting from moderate and very high greenhouse gas emissions; (2) how maximum landscape yield, spatial allocation of crops, and bioenergy hotspots (areas with highest potential yield) varied among climate scenarios; and (3) how bioenergy hotspots overlapped with current crop production or lands with high development pressure. Under both climate change scenarios, mean annual yield of perennial grasses decreased (−4% to −39%), but yield of hybrid poplar increased (+8% to +20%) which suggests that a switch to woody crops would maximize bioenergy crop production. In total, maximum landscape yield increased by up to 90 000 Mg/yr (6%) in the 21st century due to increased poplar production. Bioenergy hotspots (〉18 Mg·ha −1 ·yr −1 ) consistently overlapped with high suburban/exurban development likelihood and existing row crop production. If bioenergy production is constrained to marginal (non-crop) lands, landscape yield decreased by 27%. The removal of lands with high development probability from crop production resulted in losses of up to 670 000 Mg/yr (40%). This study demonstrated that tradeoffs among bioenergy production, crop production, and exurban expansion in a mountainous changing rural landscape vary spatially with climate change over time. If markets develop, bioenergy crops could potentially counter losses of agricultural land to development.

Description: Fire is a major ecological process in many ecosystems worldwide. We sought to identify which attributes of fire regimes affect temporal change in the presence and abundance of Australian native mammals. Our detailed study was underpinned by time series data on 11 mammal species at 97 long-term sites in southeastern Australia between 2003 and 2013. We explored how temporal aspects of fire regimes influenced the presence and conditional abundance of species. The key fire regime components examined were: (1) severity of a major fire in 2003, (2) interval between the last major fire (2003) and the fire prior to that, and (3) number of past fires. Our long-term data set enabled quantification of the interactions between survey year and each fire regime variable: an ecological relationship missing from temporally restricted studies. We found no evidence of any appreciable departures from the assumption of independence of the sites. Multiple aspects of fire regimes influenced temporal variation in the presence and abundance of mammals. The best models indicated that six of the 11 species responded to two or more fire regime variables, with two species influenced by all three fire regime attributes. Almost all species responded to time since fire, either as an interaction with survey year or as a main effect. Fire severity or its interaction with survey year was important for most terrestrial rodents. The number of fires at a site was significant for terrestrial rodents and several other species. Our findings contain evidence of the effects on native mammals of heterogeneity in fire regimes. Temporal response patterns of mammal species were influenced by multiple fire regime attributes, often in conjunction with survey year. This underscores the critical importance of long-term studies of biota that are coupled with data sets characterized by carefully documented fire history, severity, and frequency. Long-term studies are essential to predict animal responses to fires and guide management of when and where (prescribed) fire or, conversely, long-unburned vegetation is needed. The complexity of observed responses highlights the need for large reserves in which patterns of heterogeneity in fire regimes can be sustained in space and over time.

Description: Prioritizing limited conservation funds for controlling biological invasions requires accurate estimates of the effectiveness of interventions to remove invasive species and their cost-effectiveness (cost per unit area or individual). Despite billions of dollars spent controlling biological invasions worldwide, it is unclear whether those efforts are effective, and cost-effective. The paucity of evidence results from the difficulty in measuring the effect of invasive species removal: a researcher must estimate the difference in outcomes (e.g. invasive species cover) between where the removal program intervened and what might have been observed if the program had not intervened. In the program evaluation literature, this is called a counterfactual analysis, which formally compares what actually happened and what would have happened in the absence of an intervention When program implementation is not randomized, estimating counterfactual outcomes is especially difficult. We show how a thorough understanding of program implementation, combined with a matching empirical design can improve the way counterfactual outcomes are estimated in nonexperimental contexts. As a practical demonstration, we estimated the cost-effectiveness of South Africa's Working for Water program, arguably the world's most ambitious invasive species control program, in removing invasive alien trees from different land use types, across a large area in the Cape Floristic Region. We estimated that the proportion of the treatment area covered by invasive trees would have been 49% higher (5.5% instead of 2.7% of the grid cells occupied) had the program not intervened. Our estimates of cost per hectare to remove invasive species, however, are three to five times higher than the predictions made when the program was initiated. Had there been no control (counterfactual), invasive trees would have spread on untransformed land, but not on land parcels containing plantations or land transformed by agriculture or human settlements. This implies that the program might have prevented a larger area from being invaded if it had focused all of its clearing effort on untransformed land. Our results show that, with appropriate empirical designs, it is possible to better evaluate the impacts of invasive species removal and therefore to learn from past experiences.

Description: Forest policymakers and managers have long sought ways to evaluate the capability of forest landscapes to jointly produce timber, habitat, and other ecosystem services in response to forest management. Currently, carbon is of particular interest as policies for increasing carbon storage on federal lands are being proposed. However, a challenge in joint production analysis of forest management is adequately representing ecological conditions and processes that influence joint production relationships. We used simulation models of vegetation structure, forest sector carbon, and potential wildlife habitat to characterize landscape-level joint production possibilities for carbon storage, timber harvest, and habitat for seven wildlife species across a range of forest management regimes. We sought to: (1) characterize the general relationships of production possibilities for combinations of carbon storage, timber, and habitat; and (2) identify management variables that most influence joint production relationships. Our 160,000-ha study landscape featured environmental conditions typical of forests in the western Cascade Mountains of Oregon (US). Our results indicate that managing forests for carbon storage involves tradeoffs among timber harvest and habitat for focal wildlife species, depending on the disturbance interval and utilization intensity followed. Joint production possibilities for wildlife species varied in shape, ranging from competitive to complementary to compound, reflecting niche breadth and habitat component needs of species examined. Managing Pacific Northwest forests to store forest sector carbon can be roughly complementary with habitat for Northern Spotted Owl, Olive-sided Flycatcher, and Red Tree Vole. However, managing forests to increase carbon storage potentially can be competitive with timber production and habitat for Pacific Marten, Pileated Woodpecker, and Western Bluebird, depending on the disturbance interval and harvest intensity chosen. Our analysis suggest that joint production possibilities under forest management regimes currently typical on industrial forest lands (e.g., 40- to 80-year rotations with some tree retention for wildlife) represent but a small fraction of joint production outcomes possible in the region. Although the theoretical boundaries of the production possibilities sets we developed are probably unachievable in the current management environment, they arguably define the long-term potential of managing forests to produce multiple ecosystem services within and across multiple forest ownerships. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Climate change is expected to directly alter the composition of communities and the functioning of ecosystems across the globe. Improving our understanding of links between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning across large spatial scales and rapid global change is a major priority to help identify management responses that will retain diverse, functioning systems. Here we address this challenge by linking projected changes in plant community composition and functional attributes (height, leaf area, seed mass) under climate change across Tasmania, Australia. Using correlative community-level modeling, we found that projected changes in plant community composition were not consistently related to projected changes in community mean trait values. In contrast, we identified specific mechanisms through which alternative combinations of projected functional and compositional change across Tasmania could be realized, including loss/replacement of functionally similar species (lowland grasslands/grassy woodlands) and loss of a small number of functionally unique species (lowland forests). Importantly, we demonstrate how these linked projections of change in community composition and functional attributes can be utilized to inform specific management actions that may assist in maintaining diverse, functioning ecosystems under climate change.

Description: The western United States is a region long defined by water challenges. Climate change adds to those historical challenges, but does not, for the most part, introduce entirely new challenges; rather climate change is likely to stress water supplies and resources already in many cases stretched to, or beyond, natural limits. Projections are for continued and, likely, increased warming trends across the region, with a near certainty of continuing changes in seasonality of snowmelt and streamflows, and a strong potential for attendant increases in evaporative demands. Projections of future precipitation are less conclusive, although likely the northernmost West will see precipitation increases while the southernmost West sees declines. However, most of the region lies in a broad area where some climate models project precipitation increases while others project declines, so that only increases in precipitation uncertainties can be projected with any confidence. Changes in annual and seasonal hydrographs are likely to challenge water managers, users, and attempts to protect or restore environmental flows, even where annual volumes change little. Other impacts from climate change (e.g., floods and water-quality changes) are poorly understood and will likely be location dependent. In this context, four iconic river basins offer glimpses into specific challenges that climate change may bring to the West. The Colorado River is a system in which overuse and growing demands are projected to be even more challenging than climate-change-induced flow reductions. The Rio Grande offers the best example of how climate-change-induced flow declines might sink a major system into permanent drought. The Klamath is currently projected to face the more benign precipitation future, but fisheries and irrigation management may face dire straits due to warming air temperatures, rising irrigation demands, and warming waters in a basin already hobbled by tensions between endangered fisheries and agricultural demands. Finally, California's Bay-Delta system is a remarkably localized and severe weakness at the heart of the region's trillion-dollar economy. It is threatened by the full range of potential climate-change impacts expected across the West, along with major vulnerabilities to increased flooding and rising sea levels.

Description: A major goal of remote sensing is the development of generalizable algorithms to repeatedly and accurately map ecosystem properties across space and time. Imaging spectroscopy has great potential to map vegetation traits that cannot be retrieved from broadband spectral data, but rarely have such methods been tested across broad regions. Here we illustrate a general approach for estimating key foliar chemical and morphological traits through space and time using NASA's Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS-Classic). We apply partial least squares regression (PLSR) to data from 237 field plots within 51 images acquired between 2008 and 2011. Using a series of 500 randomized 50/50 subsets of the original data, we generated spatially explicit maps of seven traits (leaf mass per area ( M area ), percentage nitrogen, carbon, fiber, lignin, and cellulose, and isotopic nitrogen concentration, δ 15 N) as well as pixel-wise uncertainties in their estimates based on error propagation in the analytical methods. Both M area and %N PLSR models had a R 2 〉 0.85. Root mean square errors (RMSEs) for both variables were less than 9% of the range of data. Fiber and lignin were predicted with R 2 〉 0.65 and carbon and cellulose with R 2 〉 0.45. Although R 2 of %C and cellulose were lower than M area and %N, the measured variability of these constituents (especially %C) was also lower, and their RMSE values were beneath 12% of the range in overall variability. Model performance for δ 15 N was the lowest ( R 2 = 0.48, RMSE = 0.95‰), but within 15% of the observed range. The resulting maps of chemical and morphological traits, together with their overall uncertainties, represent a first-of-its-kind approach for examining the spatiotemporal patterns of forest functioning and nutrient cycling across a broad range of temperate and sub-boreal ecosystems. These results offer an alternative to categorical maps of functional or physiognomic types by providing non-discrete maps (i.e., on a continuum) of traits that define those functional types. A key contribution of this work is the ability to assign retrieval uncertainties by pixel, a requirement to enable assimilation of these data products into ecosystem modeling frameworks to constrain carbon and nutrient cycling projections.

Description: Nitrogen (N) loss from agriculture impacts ecosystems worldwide. One strategy to mitigate these losses, ecologically based nutrient management (ENM), seeks to recouple carbon (C) and N cycles to reduce environmental losses and supply N to cash crops. However, our capacity to apply ENM is limited by a lack of field-based high-resolution data on N dynamics in actual production contexts. We used data from a five-year study of organic cropping systems to investigate soil inorganic N (SIN) variability and nitrate (NO 3 − ) leaching in ENM. Four production systems initiated in 2007 and 2008 in central Pennsylvania varied in crop rotation, timing and intensity of tillage, inclusion of fallow periods, and N inputs. Extractable SIN was measured fortnightly from March through November throughout the experiment, and NO 3 -N concentration below the rooting zone was sampled with lysimeters during the first year of the 2008 start. We used recursive partitioning models to assess the importance of management and environmental factors to SIN variability and NO 3 − leaching and identify interactions between influential variables. Air temperature and tillage were the most important drivers of SIN across systems. The highest SIN concentrations occurred when the average air temperature three weeks prior to measurement was above 21°C. Above this temperature and within 109 days of moldboard plowing, average SIN concentrations were 22.1 mg N/kg soil; 109 days or more past plowing average SIN dropped to 7.7 mg N/kg soil. Other drivers of SIN dynamics were N available from manure and cover crops. Highest average leachate NO 3 -N concentrations (15.2 ppm) occurred in fall and winter when SIN was above 4.9 mg/kg six weeks prior to leachate collection. Late season tillage operations leading to elevated SIN and leachate NO 3 -N concentrations were a strategy to reduce weeds while meeting consumer demand for organic products. Thus, while tillage that incorporates organic N inputs preceding cash crops can promote synchrony of N mineralization and crop demand, late or post-season tillage promotes NO 3 − leaching by stimulating SIN pulses that are asynchronous with plant uptake.

Description: The control of overabundant vertebrates is often problematic. Much work has focused on population-level responses and overabundance due to anthropogenic subsidies. However, far less work has been directed at investigating responses following the removal of subsidies. We investigate the consequences of two consecutive perturbations, the closure of a landfill and an inadvertent poisoning event, on the trophic ecology (δ 13 C, δ 15 N, and δ 34 S), survival, and population size of an overabundant generalist seabird species, the Yellow-legged Gull ( Larus michahellis ). We expected that the landfill closure would cause a strong dietary shift and the inadvertent poisoning a decrease in gull population size. As a long-lived species, we also anticipated adult survival to be buffered against the decrease in food availability but not against the inadvertent poisoning event. Stable isotope analysis confirmed the dietary shift towards marine resources after the disappearance of the landfill. Although the survival model was inconclusive, it did suggest that the perturbations had a negative effect on survival, which was followed by a recovery back to average values. Food limitation likely triggered dispersal to other populations, while poisoning may have increased mortality; these two processes were likely responsible for the large fall in population size that occurred after the two consecutive perturbations. Life-history theory suggests that perturbations may encourage species to halt existing breeding investment in order to ensure future survival. However, under strong perturbation pulses the resilience threshold might be surpassed and changes in population density can arise. Consecutive perturbations may effectively manage overabundant species.

Description: Emissions from smelting not only contaminate water and soil with metals, but also induce extensive forest dieback and changes in resource availability and microclimate. The relative effects of such co-occurring stressors are often unknown, but this information is imperative in developing targeted restoration strategies. We assessed the role and relative effects of structural alterations of terrestrial habitat and metal pollution caused by century-long smelting operations on amphibian and reptile communities by collecting environmental and time- and area-standardized multivariate abundance data along three spatially replicated impact gradients. Overall, species richness, diversity, and abundance declined progressively with increasing levels of metals (As, Cu, and Ni) and soil temperature ( T s ) and decreasing canopy cover, amount of coarse woody debris (CWD), and relative humidity (RH). The composite habitat variable (which included canopy cover, CWD, T s , and RH) was more strongly associated with most response metrics than the composite metal variable (As, Cu, and Ni), and canopy cover alone explained 19–74% of the variance. Moreover, species that use terrestrial habitat for specific behaviors (e.g., hibernation, dispersal), especially forest-dependent species, were more severely affected than largely aquatic species. These results suggest that structural alterations of terrestrial habitat and concomitant changes in the resource availability and microclimate have stronger effects than metal pollution per se. Furthermore, much of the variation in response metrics was explained by the joint action of several environmental variables, implying synergistic effects (e.g., exacerbation of metal toxicity by elevated temperatures in sites with reduced canopy cover). We thus argue that the restoration of terrestrial habitat conditions is a key to successful recovery of herpetofauna communities in smelting-altered landscapes.

Description: Rainbow and brown trout have been intentionally introduced into tailwaters downriver of dams globally and provide billions of dollars in economic benefits. At the same time, recruitment and maximum length of trout populations in tailwaters often fluctuate erratically, which negatively affects the value of fisheries. Large recruitment events may increase dispersal downriver where other fish species may be a priority (e.g., endangered species). There is an urgent need to understand the drivers of trout population dynamics in tailwaters, in particular the role of flow management. Here, we evaluate how flow, fish density, and other physical factors of the river influence recruitment and mean adult length in tailwaters across western North America, using data from 29 dams spanning 1–19 years. Rainbow trout recruitment was negatively correlated with high annual, summer, and spring flow and dam latitude, and positively correlated with high winter flow, subadult brown trout catch, and reservoir storage capacity. Brown trout recruitment was negatively correlated with high water velocity and daily fluctuations in flow (i.e., hydropeaking) and positively correlated with adult rainbow trout catch. Among these many drivers, rainbow trout recruitment was primarily correlated with high winter flow combined with low spring flow, whereas brown trout recruitment was most related to high water velocity. The mean lengths of adult rainbow and brown trout were influenced by similar flow and catch metrics. Length in both species was positively correlated with high annual flow but declined in tailwaters with high daily fluctuations in flow, high catch rates of conspecifics, and when large cohorts recruited to adult size. Whereas brown trout did not respond to the proportion of water allocated between seasons, rainbow trout length increased in rivers that released more water during winter than in spring. Rainbow trout length was primarily related to high catch rates of conspecifics, whereas brown trout length was mainly related to large cohorts recruiting to the adult size class. Species-specific responses to flow management are likely attributable to differences in seasonal timing of key life history events such as spawning, egg hatching, and fry emergence.

Description: Long-lived plant species are highly valued environmentally, economically, and socially, but can also cause substantial harm as invaders. Realistic demographic predictions can guide management decisions, and are particularly valuable for long-lived species where population response times can be long. Long-lived species are also challenging, given population dynamics can be affected by factors as diverse as herbivory, climate, and dispersal. We developed a matrix model to evaluate the effects of herbivory by a leaf-feeding biological control agent released in Australia against a long-lived invasive shrub (mesquite, Leguminoseae: Prosopis spp.). The stage-structured, density-dependent model used an annual time step and 10 climatically diverse years of field data. Mesquite population demography is sensitive to source–sink dynamics as most seeds are consumed and redistributed spatially by livestock. In addition, individual mesquite plants, because they are long lived, experience natural climate variation that cycles over decadal scales, as well as anthropogenic climate change. The model therefore explicitly considered the effects of both net dispersal and climate variation. Herbivory strongly regulated mesquite populations through reduced growth and fertility, but additional mortality of older plants will be required to reach management goals within a reasonable time frame. Growth and survival of seeds and seedlings were correlated with daily soil moisture. As a result, population dynamics were sensitive to rainfall scenario, but population response times were typically slow (20–800 years to reach equilibrium or extinction) due to adult longevity. Equilibrium population densities were expected to remain 5% higher, and be more dynamic, if historical multi-decadal climate patterns persist, the effect being dampened by herbivory suppressing seed production irrespective of preceding rainfall. Dense infestations were unlikely to form under a drier climate, and required net dispersal under the current climate. Seed input wasn't required to form dense infestations under a wetter climate. Each factor we considered (ongoing herbivory, changing climate, and source–sink dynamics) has a strong bearing on how this invasive species should be managed, highlighting the need for considering both ecological context (in this case, source–sink dynamics) and the effect of climate variability at relevant temporal scales (daily, multi-decadal, and anthropogenic) when deriving management recommendations for long-lived species.

Description: Animal-derived nutrients play an important role in structuring nutrient regimes within and between ecosystems. When animals undergo repetitive, aggregating behavior through time, they can create nutrient hotspots where rates of biogeochemical activity are higher than those found in the surrounding environment. In turn, these hotspots can influence ecosystem processes and community structure. We examined the potential for reef fishes from the family Haemulidae (grunts) to create nutrient hotspots and the potential impact of these hotspots on reef communities. To do so, we tracked the schooling locations of diurnally migrating grunts, which shelter at reef sites during the day but forage off reef each night, and measured the impact of these fish schools on benthic communities. We found that grunt schools showed a high degree of site fidelity, repeatedly returning to the same coral heads. These aggregations created nutrient hotspots around coral heads where nitrogen and phosphorus delivery was roughly 10 and 7 times the respective rates of delivery to structurally similar sites that lacked schools of these fishes. In turn, grazing rates of herbivorous fishes at grunt-derived hotspots were approximately 3 times those of sites where grunts were rare. These differences in nutrient delivery and grazing led to distinct benthic communities with higher cover of crustose coralline algae and less total algal abundance at grunt aggregation sites. Importantly, coral growth was roughly 1.5 times greater at grunt hotspots, likely due to the important nutrient subsidy. Our results suggest that schooling reef fish and their nutrient subsidies play an important role in mediating community structure on coral reefs and that overfishing may have important negative consequences on ecosystem functions. As such, management strategies must consider mesopredatory fishes in addition to current protection often offered to herbivores and top-tier predators. Furthermore, our results suggest that restoration strategies may benefit from focusing on providing structure for aggregating fishes on reefs with low topographic complexity or focusing the restoration of nursery raised corals around existing nutrient hotspots.

Description: Agricultural expansion is the largest threat to global biodiversity. In particular, the rapid spread of tree plantations is a primary driver of deforestation in hyperdiverse tropical regions. Plantations tend to support considerably lower biodiversity than native forest, but it remains unclear whether plantation traits affect their ability to sustain native wildlife populations, particularly for threatened taxa. If animal diversity varies across plantations with different characteristics, these traits could be manipulated to make plantations more “wildlife friendly.” The degree to which plantations create edge effects that degrade habitat quality in adjacent forest also remains unclear, limiting our ability to predict wildlife persistence in mixed-use landscapes. We used systematic camera trapping to investigate mammal occurrence and diversity in oil palm plantations and adjacent forest in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo. Mammals within plantations were largely constrained to locations near native forest; the occurrence of most species and overall species richness declined abruptly with decreasing forest proximity from an estimated 14 species at the forest ecotone to ~1 species 2 km into the plantation. Neither tree height nor canopy cover within plantations strongly affected mammal diversity or occurrence, suggesting that manipulating tree spacing or planting cycles might not make plantations more wildlife friendly. Plantations did not appear to generate strong edge effects; mammal richness within forest remained high and consistent up to the plantation ecotone. Our results suggest that land-sparing strategies, as opposed to efforts to make plantations more wildlife-friendly, are required for regional wildlife conservation in biodiverse tropical ecosystems.

Description: Woodlands comprised of planted, nonnative trees are increasing in extent globally, while native woodlands continue to decline due to human activities. The ecological impacts of planted woodlands may include changes to the communities of understory plants and animals found among these nonnative trees relative to native woodlands, as well as invasion of adjacent habitat areas through spread beyond the originally planted areas. Eucalypts ( Eucalyptus spp.) are among the most widely planted trees worldwide, and are very common in California, USA. The goals of our investigation were to compare the biological communities of nonnative eucalypt woodlands to native oak woodlands in coastal central California, and to examine whether planted eucalypt groves have increased in size over the past decades. We assessed site and habitat attributes and characterized biological communities using understory plant, ground-dwelling arthropod, amphibian, and bird communities as indicators. Degree of difference between native and nonnative woodlands depended on the indicator used. Eucalypts had significantly greater canopy height and cover, and significantly lower cover by perennial plants and species richness of arthropods than oaks. Community composition of arthropods also differed significantly between eucalypts and oaks. Eucalypts had marginally significantly deeper litter depth, lower abundance of native plants with ranges limited to western North America, and lower abundance of amphibians. In contrast to these differences, eucalypt and oak groves had very similar bird community composition, species richness, and abundance. We found no evidence of “invasional meltdown,” documenting similar abundance and richness of nonnatives in eucalypt vs. oak woodlands. Our time-series analysis revealed that planted eucalypt groves increased 271% in size, on average, over six decades, invading adjacent areas. Our results inform science-based management of California woodlands, revealing that while bird communities would probably not be affected by restoration of eucalypt to oak woodlands, such a restoration project would not only stop the spread of eucalypts into adjacent habitats but would also enhance cover by western North American native plants and perennials, enhance amphibian abundance, and increase arthropod richness.

Description: Forest loss is a primary cause of worldwide amphibian decline. Timber harvesting in the United States has caused dramatic changes in quality and extent of forest ecosystems, and intensive forest management still occurs. Although numerous studies have documented substantial reductions in amphibian densities related to timber harvest, subsequent extinctions are rare. To better understand the population dynamics that have allowed so many amphibian species to persist in the face of widespread forest disturbance, we developed spatially explicit metapopulation models for four forest-dependent amphibian species ( Lithobates sylvaticus , Ambystoma opacum , A. talpoideum , and A. maculatum ) that incorporated demographic and habitat selection data derived from experiments conducted as part of the Land Use Effects on Amphibian Populations Project (LEAP). We projected local and landscape-scale population persistence under 108 different forestry practice scenarios, varying treatment (partial cut, clear-cut with coarse woody debris [CWD] removed, and clear-cut with CWD retained), cut patch size (1, 10, or 50 ha), total area cut (10, 20, or 30%), and initial amphibian population size (5, 50, or 500 adult females per local breeding population). Under these scenarios, landscape-scale extinction was highly unlikely, occurring in 〈1% of model runs and for only 2 of the 4 species, because landscape-scale populations were able to persist via dispersal even despite frequent local extinctions. Yet for all species, population sizes were reduced to ~50% in all clear-cut scenarios, regardless of the size of harvested patches. These findings suggest that debate over timber harvesting on pool-breeding amphibian populations in the United States should focus not on questions of landscape-scale extinction but on the ecological consequences of dramatic reductions in amphibian biomass, including changes in trophic interactions, nutrient cycling, and energy transfer. Additionally, we conclude that amphibian declines and extinctions are far more likely to occur as a result of permanent habitat loss resulting from development than from the temporary degradation of habitat caused by current forestry practices.

Description: The increasing frequency of large, high-severity fires threatens the survival of old-growth specialist fauna in fire-prone forests. Within topographically diverse montane forests, areas that experience less severe or fewer fires compared with those prevailing in the landscape may present unique resource opportunities enabling old-growth specialist fauna to survive. Statistical landscape models that identify the extent and distribution of potential fire refuges may assist land managers to incorporate these areas into relevant biodiversity conservation strategies. We used a case study in an Australian wet montane forest to establish how predictive fire simulation models can be interpreted as management tools to identify potential fire refuges. We examined the relationship between the probability of fire refuge occurrence as predicted by an existing fire refuge model and fire severity experienced during a large wildfire. We also examined the extent to which local fire severity was influenced by fire severity in the surrounding landscape. We used a combination of statistical approaches, including generalized linear modeling, variogram analysis, and receiver operating characteristics and area under the curve analysis (ROC AUC). We found that the amount of unburned habitat and the factors influencing the retention and location of fire refuges varied with fire conditions. Under extreme fire conditions, the distribution of fire refuges was limited to only extremely sheltered, fire-resistant regions of the landscape. During extreme fire conditions, fire severity patterns were largely determined by stochastic factors that could not be predicted by the model. When fire conditions were moderate, physical landscape properties appeared to mediate fire severity distribution. Our study demonstrates that land managers can employ predictive landscape fire models to identify the broader climatic and spatial domain within which fire refuges are likely to be present. It is essential that within these envelopes, forest is protected from logging, roads, and other developments so that the ecological processes related to the establishment and subsequent use of fire refuges are maintained.

Description: Concern over rising atmospheric CO 2 and other greenhouse gases due to fossil fuel combustion has intensified research into carbon-neutral energy production. Approximately 15.8 million ha of pine plantations exist across the southeastern United States, representing a vast land area advantageous for bioenergy production without significant land-use change or diversion of agricultural resources from food production. Furthermore, intercropping of pine with bioenergy grasses could provide annually harvestable, lignocellulosic biomass feedstocks along with production of traditional wood products. Viability of such a system hinges in part on soil nitrogen (N) availability and effects of N competition between pines and grasses on ecosystem productivity. We investigated effects of intercropping loblolly pine ( Pinus taeda ) with switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum ) on microbial N cycling processes in the Lower Coastal Plain of North Carolina, USA. Soil samples were collected from bedded rows of pine and interbed space of two treatments, composed of either volunteer native woody and herbaceous vegetation (pine–native) or pure switchgrass (pine–switchgrass) in interbeds. An in vitro 15 N pool-dilution technique was employed to quantify gross N transformations at two soil depths (0–5 and 5–15 cm) on four dates in 2012–2013. At the 0–5 cm depth in beds of the pine–switchgrass treatment, gross N mineralization was two to three times higher in November and February compared to the pine–native treatment, resulting in increased NH 4 + availability. Gross and net nitrification were also significantly higher in February in the same pine beds. In interbeds of the pine–switchgrass treatment, gross N mineralization was lower from April to November, but higher in February, potentially reflecting positive effects of switchgrass root-derived C inputs during dormancy on microbial activity. These findings indicate soil N cycling and availability has increased in pine beds of the pine–switchgrass treatment compared to those of the pine–native treatment, potentially alleviating any negative effects of N competition between pine and switchgrass. We expect that reduced soil C in the pine–switchgrass treatment, effects of pine and switchgrass rooting on soil C availability, and plant N demand are major factors influencing soil N transformations. Future research should examine rooting architecture in intercropped systems and the effects on soil microbial communities and function.