ALBERT

Description: Impact of model developments on present and future simulations of permafrost in a global land-surface model The Cryosphere, 9, 1505-1521, 2015 Author(s): S. E. Chadburn, E. J. Burke, R. L. H. Essery, J. Boike, M. Langer, M. Heikenfeld, P. M. Cox, and P. Friedlingstein There is a large amount of organic carbon stored in permafrost in the northern high latitudes, which may become vulnerable to microbial decomposition under future climate warming. In order to estimate this potential carbon–climate feedback it is necessary to correctly simulate the physical dynamics of permafrost within global Earth system models (ESMs) and to determine the rate at which it will thaw. Additional new processes within JULES, the land-surface scheme of the UK ESM (UKESM), include a representation of organic soils, moss and bedrock and a modification to the snow scheme; the sensitivity of permafrost to these new developments is investigated in this study. The impact of a higher vertical soil resolution and deeper soil column is also considered. Evaluation against a large group of sites shows the annual cycle of soil temperatures is approximately 25 % too large in the standard JULES version, but this error is corrected by the model improvements, in particular by deeper soil, organic soils, moss and the modified snow scheme. A comparison with active layer monitoring sites shows that the active layer is on average just over 1 m too deep in the standard model version, and this bias is reduced by 70 cm in the improved version. Increasing the soil vertical resolution allows the full range of active layer depths to be simulated; by contrast, with a poorly resolved soil at least 50 % of the permafrost area has a maximum thaw depth at the centre of the bottom soil layer. Thus all the model modifications are seen to improve the permafrost simulations. Historical permafrost area corresponds fairly well to observations in all simulations, covering an area between 14 and 19 million km 2 . Simulations under two future climate scenarios show a reduced sensitivity of permafrost degradation to temperature, with the near-surface permafrost loss per degree of warming reduced from 1.5 million km 2 °C −1 in the standard version of JULES to between 1.1 and 1.2 million km 2 °C −1 in the new model version. However, the near-surface permafrost area is still projected to approximately half by the end of the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario.

Description: Assimilation of Antarctic velocity observations provides evidence for uncharted pinning points The Cryosphere, 9, 1427-1443, 2015 Author(s): J. J. Fürst, G. Durand, F. Gillet-Chaulet, N. Merino, L. Tavard, J. Mouginot, N. Gourmelen, and O. Gagliardini In ice flow modelling, the use of control methods to assimilate the dynamic and geometric state of an ice body has become common practice. These methods have primarily focussed on inverting for one of the two least known properties in glaciology, namely the basal friction coefficient or the ice viscosity parameter. Here, we present an approach to infer both properties simultaneously for the whole of the Antarctic ice sheet. After the assimilation, the root-mean-square deviation between modelled and observed surface velocities attains 8.7 m a −1 for the entire domain, with a slightly higher value of 14.0 m a −1 for the ice shelves. An exception in terms of the velocity mismatch is the Thwaites Glacier Ice Shelf, where the RMS value is almost 70 m a −1 . The reason is that the underlying Bedmap2 geometry ignores the presence of an ice rise, which exerts major control on the dynamics of the eastern part of the ice shelf. On these grounds, we suggest an approach to account for pinning points not included in Bedmap2 by locally allowing an optimisation of basal friction during the inversion. In this way, the velocity mismatch on the ice shelf of Thwaites Glacier is more than halved. A characteristic velocity mismatch pattern emerges for unaccounted pinning points close to the marine shelf front. This pattern is exploited to manually identify seven uncharted features around Antarctica that exert significant resistance to the shelf flow. Potential pinning points are detected on Fimbul, West, Shackleton, Nickerson and Venable ice shelves. As pinning points can provide substantial resistance to shelf flow, with considerable consequences if they became ungrounded in the future, the model community is in need of detailed bathymetry there. Our data assimilation points to some of these dynamically important features not present in Bedmap2 and implicitly quantifies their relevance.

Description: Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate The Cryosphere, 9, 1579-1600, 2015 Author(s): S. L. Cornford, D. F. Martin, A. J. Payne, E. G. Ng, A. M. Le Brocq, R. M. Gladstone, T. L. Edwards, S. R. Shannon, C. Agosta, M. R. van den Broeke, H. H. Hellmer, G. Krinner, S. R. M. Ligtenberg, R. Timmermann, and D. G. Vaughan We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice sheet model to carry out one, two, and three century simulations of the fast-flowing ice streams of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, deploying sub-kilometer resolution around the grounding line since coarser resolution results in substantial underestimation of the response. Each of the simulations begins with a geometry and velocity close to present-day observations, and evolves according to variation in meteoric ice accumulation rates and oceanic ice shelf melt rates. Future changes in accumulation and melt rates range from no change, through anomalies computed by atmosphere and ocean models driven by the E1 and A1B emissions scenarios, to spatially uniform melt rate anomalies that remove most of the ice shelves over a few centuries. We find that variation in the resulting ice dynamics is dominated by the choice of initial conditions and ice shelf melt rate and mesh resolution, although ice accumulation affects the net change in volume above flotation to a similar degree. Given sufficient melt rates, we compute grounding line retreat over hundreds of kilometers in every major ice stream, but the ocean models do not predict such melt rates outside of the Amundsen Sea Embayment until after 2100. Within the Amundsen Sea Embayment the largest single source of variability is the onset of sustained retreat in Thwaites Glacier, which can triple the rate of eustatic sea level rise.

Description: Retrieving the paleoclimatic signal from the deeper part of the EPICA Dome C ice core The Cryosphere, 9, 1633-1648, 2015 Author(s): J.-L. Tison, M. de Angelis, G. Littot, E. Wolff, H. Fischer, M. Hansson, M. Bigler, R. Udisti, A. Wegner, J. Jouzel, B. Stenni, S. Johnsen, V. Masson-Delmotte, A. Landais, V. Lipenkov, L. Loulergue, J.-M. Barnola, J.-R. Petit, B. Delmonte, G. Dreyfus, D. Dahl-Jensen, G. Durand, B. Bereiter, A. Schilt, R. Spahni, K. Pol, R. Lorrain, R. Souchez, and D. Samyn An important share of paleoclimatic information is buried within the lowermost layers of deep ice cores. Because improving our records further back in time is one of the main challenges in the near future, it is essential to judge how deep these records remain unaltered, since the proximity of the bedrock is likely to interfere both with the recorded temporal sequence and the ice properties. In this paper, we present a multiparametric study (δD-δ 18 O ice , δ 18 O atm , total air content, CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, dust, high-resolution chemistry, ice texture) of the bottom 60 m of the EPICA (European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) Dome C ice core from central Antarctica. These bottom layers were subdivided into two distinct facies: the lower 12 m showing visible solid inclusions (basal dispersed ice facies) and the upper 48 m, which we will refer to as the "basal clean ice facies". Some of the data are consistent with a pristine paleoclimatic signal, others show clear anomalies. It is demonstrated that neither large-scale bottom refreezing of subglacial water, nor mixing (be it internal or with a local basal end term from a previous/initial ice sheet configuration) can explain the observed bottom-ice properties. We focus on the high-resolution chemical profiles and on the available remote sensing data on the subglacial topography of the site to propose a mechanism by which relative stretching of the bottom-ice sheet layers is made possible, due to the progressively confining effect of subglacial valley sides. This stress field change, combined with bottom-ice temperature close to the pressure melting point, induces accelerated migration recrystallization, which results in spatial chemical sorting of the impurities, depending on their state (dissolved vs. solid) and if they are involved or not in salt formation. This chemical sorting effect is responsible for the progressive build-up of the visible solid aggregates that therefore mainly originate "from within", and not from incorporation processes of debris from the ice sheet's substrate. We further discuss how the proposed mechanism is compatible with the other ice properties described. We conclude that the paleoclimatic signal is only marginally affected in terms of global ice properties at the bottom of EPICA Dome C, but that the timescale was considerably distorted by mechanical stretching of MIS20 due to the increasing influence of the subglacial topography, a process that might have started well above the bottom ice. A clear paleoclimatic signal can therefore not be inferred from the deeper part of the EPICA Dome C ice core. Our work suggests that the existence of a flat monotonic ice–bedrock interface, extending for several times the ice thickness, would be a crucial factor in choosing a future "oldest ice" drilling location in Antarctica.

Description: Impact of debris cover on glacier ablation and atmosphere–glacier feedbacks in the Karakoram The Cryosphere, 9, 1617-1632, 2015 Author(s): E. Collier, F. Maussion, L. I. Nicholson, T. Mölg, W. W. Immerzeel, and A. B. G. Bush The Karakoram range of the Hindu-Kush Himalaya is characterized by both extensive glaciation and a widespread prevalence of surficial debris cover on the glaciers. Surface debris exerts a strong control on glacier surface-energy and mass fluxes and, by modifying surface boundary conditions, has the potential to alter atmosphere–glacier feedbacks. To date, the influence of debris on Karakoram glaciers has only been directly assessed by a small number of glaciological measurements over short periods. Here, we include supraglacial debris in a high-resolution, interactively coupled atmosphere–glacier modeling system. To investigate glaciological and meteorological changes that arise due to the presence of debris, we perform two simulations using the coupled model from 1 May to 1 October 2004: one that treats all glacier surfaces as debris-free and one that introduces a simplified specification for the debris thickness. The basin-averaged impact of debris is a reduction in ablation of ~ 14 %, although the difference exceeds 5 m w.e. on the lowest-altitude glacier tongues. The relatively modest reduction in basin-mean mass loss results in part from non-negligible sub-debris melt rates under thicker covers and from compensating increases in melt under thinner debris, and may help to explain the lack of distinct differences in recent elevation changes between clean and debris-covered ice. The presence of debris also strongly alters the surface boundary condition and thus heat exchanges with the atmosphere; near-surface meteorological fields at lower elevations and their vertical gradients; and the atmospheric boundary layer development. These findings are relevant for glacio-hydrological studies on debris-covered glaciers and contribute towards an improved understanding of glacier behavior in the Karakoram.

Description: Mapping snow depth from manned aircraft on landscape scales at centimeter resolution using structure-from-motion photogrammetry The Cryosphere, 9, 1445-1463, 2015 Author(s): M. Nolan, C. Larsen, and M. Sturm Airborne photogrammetry is undergoing a renaissance: lower-cost equipment, more powerful software, and simplified methods have significantly lowered the barriers to entry and now allow repeat mapping of cryospheric dynamics at spatial resolutions and temporal frequencies that were previously too expensive to consider. Here we apply these advancements to the measurement of snow depth from manned aircraft. Our main airborne hardware consists of a consumer-grade digital camera directly coupled to a dual-frequency GPS; no inertial motion unit (IMU) or on-board computer is required, such that system hardware and software costs less than USD 30 000, exclusive of aircraft. The photogrammetric processing is done using a commercially available implementation of the structure from motion (SfM) algorithm. The system is simple enough that it can be operated by the pilot without additional assistance and the technique creates directly georeferenced maps without ground control, further reducing overall costs. To map snow depth, we made digital elevation models (DEMs) during snow-free and snow-covered conditions, then subtracted these to create difference DEMs (dDEMs). We assessed the accuracy (real-world geolocation) and precision (repeatability) of our DEMs through comparisons to ground control points and to time series of our own DEMs. We validated these assessments through comparisons to DEMs made by airborne lidar and by a similar photogrammetric system. We empirically determined that our DEMs have a geolocation accuracy of ±30 cm and a repeatability of ±8 cm (both 95 % confidence). We then validated our dDEMs against more than 6000 hand-probed snow depth measurements at 3 separate test areas in Alaska covering a wide-variety of terrain and snow types. These areas ranged from 5 to 40 km 2 and had ground sample distances of 6 to 20 cm. We found that depths produced from the dDEMs matched probe depths with a 10 cm standard deviation, and were statistically identical at 95 % confidence. Due to the precision of this technique, other real changes on the ground such as frost heave, vegetative compaction by snow, and even footprints become sources of error in the measurement of thin snow packs ( 〈 20 cm). The ability to directly measure such small changes over entire landscapes eliminates the need to extrapolate limited field measurements. The fact that this mapping can be done at substantially lower costs than current methods may transform the way we approach studying change in the cryosphere.

Description: Recent changes in north-west Greenland climate documented by NEEM shallow ice core data and simulations, and implications for past-temperature reconstructions The Cryosphere, 9, 1481-1504, 2015 Author(s): V. Masson-Delmotte, H. C. Steen-Larsen, P. Ortega, D. Swingedouw, T. Popp, B. M. Vinther, H. Oerter, A. E. Sveinbjornsdottir, H. Gudlaugsdottir, J. E. Box, S. Falourd, X. Fettweis, H. Gallée, E. Garnier, V. Gkinis, J. Jouzel, A. Landais, B. Minster, N. Paradis, A. Orsi, C. Risi, M. Werner, and J. W. C. White Combined records of snow accumulation rate, δ 18 O and deuterium excess were produced from several shallow ice cores and snow pits at NEEM (North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling), covering the period from 1724 to 2007. They are used to investigate recent climate variability and characterise the isotope–temperature relationship. We find that NEEM records are only weakly affected by inter-annual changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation. Decadal δ 18 O and accumulation variability is related to North Atlantic sea surface temperature and is enhanced at the beginning of the 19th century. No long-term trend is observed in the accumulation record. By contrast, NEEM δ 18 O shows multidecadal increasing trends in the late 19th century and since the 1980s. The strongest annual positive δ 18 O values are recorded at NEEM in 1928 and 2010, while maximum accumulation occurs in 1933. The last decade is the most enriched in δ 18 O (warmest), while the 11-year periods with the strongest depletion (coldest) are depicted at NEEM in 1815–1825 and 1836–1846, which are also the driest 11-year periods. The NEEM accumulation and δ 18 O records are strongly correlated with outputs from atmospheric models, nudged to atmospheric reanalyses. Best performance is observed for ERA reanalyses. Gridded temperature reconstructions, instrumental data and model outputs at NEEM are used to estimate the multidecadal accumulation–temperature and δ 18 O–temperature relationships for the strong warming period in 1979–2007. The accumulation sensitivity to temperature is estimated at 11 ± 2 % °C −1 and the δ 18 O–temperature slope at 1.1 ± 0.2 ‰ °C −1 , about twice as large as previously used to estimate last interglacial temperature change from the bottom part of the NEEM deep ice core.

Description: Evolution of ice-shelf channels in Antarctic ice shelves The Cryosphere, 9, 1169-1181, 2015 Author(s): R. Drews Ice shelves buttress the continental ice flux and mediate ice–ocean interactions. They are often traversed by channels in which basal melting is enhanced, impacting ice-shelf stability. Here, channel evolution is investigated using a transient, three-dimensional full Stokes model and geophysical data collected on the Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf (RBIS), Antarctica. The modeling confirms basal melting as a feasible mechanism for channel creation, although channels may also advect without melting for many tens of kilometers. Channels can be out of hydrostatic equilibrium depending on their width and the upstream melt history. Inverting surface elevation for ice thickness using hydrostatic equilibrium in those areas is erroneous, and corresponding observational evidence is presented at RBIS by comparing the hydrostatically inverted ice thickness with radar measurements. The model shows that channelized melting imprints the flow field characteristically, which can result in enhanced horizontal shearing across channels. This is exemplified for a channel at RBIS using observed surface velocities and opens up the possibility to classify channelized melting from space, an important step towards incorporating these effects in ice–ocean models.

Description: User requirements for the snow and land ice services – CryoLand The Cryosphere, 9, 1191-1202, 2015 Author(s): E. Malnes, A. Buanes, T. Nagler, G. Bippus, D. Gustafsson, C. Schiller, S. Metsämäki, J. Pulliainen, K. Luojus, H. E. Larsen, R. Solberg, A. Diamandi, and A. Wiesmann CryoLand (2011–2015) is a project carried out within the 7th Framework of the European Commission aimed at developing downstream services for monitoring seasonal snow, glaciers and lake/river ice primarily based on satellite remote sensing. The services target private and public users from a wide variety of application areas, and aim to develop sustainable services after the project is completed. The project has performed a thorough user requirement survey in order to derive targeted requirements for the service and provide recommendations for the design and priorities of the service. In this paper we describe the methods used, the major findings in this user survey, and how we used the results to design and specify the CryoLand snow and land ice service. The user requirement analysis shows that a European operational snow and land ice service is required and that there exists developed cryosphere products that can meet the specific needs. The majority of the users were mainly interested not only in the snow services, but also the lake/river ice products and the glacier products were desired.

Description: Meteorological, elevation, and slope effects on surface hoar formation The Cryosphere, 9, 1523-1533, 2015 Author(s): S. Horton, M. Schirmer, and B. Jamieson Failure in layers of buried surface hoar crystals (frost) can cause hazardous snow slab avalanches. Surface hoar crystals form on the snow surface and are sensitive to micro-meteorological conditions. In this study, the role of meteorological and terrain factors was investigated for three layers of surface hoar in the Columbia Mountains of Canada. The distribution of crystals over different elevations and aspects was observed on 20 days of field observations during a period of high pressure. The same layers were modelled over simplified terrain on a 2.5 km horizontal grid by forcing the snow cover model SNOWPACK with forecast weather data from a numerical weather prediction model. Modelled surface hoar growth was associated with warm air temperatures, high humidity, cold surface temperatures, and low wind speeds. Surface hoar was most developed in regions and elevation bands where these conditions existed, although strong winds at high elevations caused some model discrepancies. SNOWPACK simulations on virtual slopes systematically predicted smaller surface hoar on south-facing slopes. In the field, a complex combination of surface hoar and sun crusts were observed, suggesting the simplified model did not adequately resolve the surface energy balance on slopes. Overall, a coupled weather–snow cover model could benefit avalanche forecasters by predicting surface hoar layers on a regional scale over different elevation bands.

Description: Area, elevation and mass changes of the two southernmost ice caps of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago between 1952 and 2014 The Cryosphere, 9, 1535-1550, 2015 Author(s): C. Papasodoro, E. Berthier, A. Royer, C. Zdanowicz, and A. Langlois Grinnell and Terra Nivea Ice Caps are located on the southern Baffin Island, Nunavut, in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. These relatively small ice caps have received little attention compared to the much larger ice masses further north. Their evolution can, however, give valuable information about the impact of the recent Arctic warming at lower latitudes (i.e. ~ 62.5° N). In this paper, we measure or estimate historical and recent changes of area, elevation and mass of both ice caps using in situ, airborne and spaceborne data sets, including imagery from the Pléiades satellites. The area of Terra Nivea Ice Cap has decreased by 34 % since the late 1950s, while that of Grinnell Ice Cap has decreased by 20 % since 1952. For both ice caps, the areal reduction accelerated at the beginning of the 21st century. The estimated glacier-wide mass balance was −0.37 ± 0.21 m a −1 water equivalent (w.e.) over Grinnell Ice Cap for the 1952–2014 period, and −0.47 ± 0.16 m a −1 w.e. over Terra Nivea Ice Cap for the 1958/59–2014 period. Terra Nivea Ice Cap has experienced an accelerated rate of mass loss of −1.77 ± 0.36 m a −1 w.e. between 2007 and 2014. This rate is 5.9 times as negative when compared to the 1958/59–2007 period (−0.30 ± 0.19 m a −1 w.e.) and 2 times as negative when compared to the mass balance of other glaciers in the southern parts of Baffin Island over the 2003–2009 period. A similar acceleration in mass loss is suspected for the Grinnell Ice Cap, given the calculated elevation changes and the proximity to Terra Nivea Ice Cap. The recent increase in mass loss rates for these two ice caps is linked to a strong near-surface regional warming and a lengthening of the melt season into the autumn that may be indirectly strengthened by a later freezing of sea ice in the Hudson Strait sector. On a methodological level, our study illustrates the strong potential of Pléiades satellite data to unlock the under-exploited archive of old aerial photographs.

Description: Melt pond fraction and spectral sea ice albedo retrieval from MERIS data – Part 2: Case studies and trends of sea ice albedo and melt ponds in the Arctic for years 2002–2011 The Cryosphere, 9, 1567-1578, 2015 Author(s): L. Istomina, G. Heygster, M. Huntemann, H. Marks, C. Melsheimer, E. Zege, A. Malinka, A. Prikhach, and I. Katsev The spatial and temporal dynamics of melt ponds and sea ice albedo contain information on the current state and the trend of the climate of the Arctic region. This publication presents a study on melt pond fraction (MPF) and sea ice albedo spatial and temporal dynamics obtained with the Melt Pond Detection (MPD) retrieval scheme for the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) satellite data. This study compares sea ice albedo and MPF to surface air temperature reanalysis data, compares MPF retrieved from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and examines albedo and MPF trends. Weekly averages of MPF for 2007 and 2011 showed different MPF dynamics while summer sea ice minimum was similar for both years. The gridded MPF and albedo products compare well to independent reanalysis temperature data and show melt onset when the temperature gets above zero; however MPD shows an offset at low MPFs of about 10 % most probably due to unscreened high clouds. Weekly averaged trends show pronounced dynamics of both, MPF and albedo: a negative MPF trend in the East Siberian Sea and a positive MPF trend around the Queen Elizabeth Islands. The negative MPF trend appears due to a change of the absolute MPF value in its peak, whereas the positive MPF trend is created by the earlier melt onset, with the peak MPF values unchanged. The MPF dynamics in the East Siberian Sea could indicate a temporal change of ice type prevailing in the region, as opposed to the Queen Elizabeth Islands, where MPF dynamics react to an earlier seasonal onset of melt.

Description: Melt pond fraction and spectral sea ice albedo retrieval from MERIS data – Part 1: Validation against in situ, aerial, and ship cruise data The Cryosphere, 9, 1551-1566, 2015 Author(s): L. Istomina, G. Heygster, M. Huntemann, P. Schwarz, G. Birnbaum, R. Scharien, C. Polashenski, D. Perovich, E. Zege, A. Malinka, A. Prikhach, and I. Katsev The presence of melt ponds on the Arctic sea ice strongly affects the energy balance of the Arctic Ocean in summer. It affects albedo as well as transmittance through the sea ice, which has consequences for the heat balance and mass balance of sea ice. An algorithm to retrieve melt pond fraction and sea ice albedo from Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) data is validated against aerial, shipborne and in situ campaign data. The results show the best correlation for landfast and multiyear ice of high ice concentrations. For broadband albedo, R 2 is equal to 0.85, with the RMS (root mean square) being equal to 0.068; for the melt pond fraction, R 2 is equal to 0.36, with the RMS being equal to 0.065. The correlation for lower ice concentrations, subpixel ice floes, blue ice and wet ice is lower due to ice drift and challenging for the retrieval surface conditions. Combining all aerial observations gives a mean albedo RMS of 0.089 and a mean melt pond fraction RMS of 0.22. The in situ melt pond fraction correlation is R 2 = 0.52 with an RMS = 0.14. Ship cruise data might be affected by documentation of varying accuracy within the Antarctic Sea Ice Processes and Climate (ASPeCt) protocol, which may contribute to the discrepancy between the satellite value and the observed value: mean R 2 = 0.044, mean RMS = 0.16. An additional dynamic spatial cloud filter for MERIS over snow and ice has been developed to assist with the validation on swath data.

Description: Evaluation of the updated regional climate model RACMO2.3: summer snowfall impact on the Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere, 9, 1831-1844, 2015 Author(s): B. Noël, W. J. van de Berg, E. van Meijgaard, P. Kuipers Munneke, R. S. W. van de Wal, and M. R. van den Broeke We discuss Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) differences between the updated polar version of the RACMO climate model (RACMO2.3) and the previous version (RACMO2.1). Among other revisions, the updated model includes an adjusted rainfall-to-snowfall conversion that produces exclusively snowfall under freezing conditions; this especially favours snowfall in summer. Summer snowfall in the ablation zone of the GrIS has a pronounced effect on melt rates, affecting modelled GrIS SMB in two ways. By covering relatively dark ice with highly reflective fresh snow, these summer snowfalls have the potential to locally reduce melt rates in the ablation zone of the GrIS through the snow-albedo-melt feedback. At larger scales, SMB changes are driven by differences in orographic precipitation following a shift in large-scale circulation, in combination with enhanced moisture to precipitation conversion for warm to moderately cold conditions. A detailed comparison of model output with observations from automatic weather stations, ice cores and ablation stakes shows that the model update generally improves the simulated SMB-elevation gradient as well as the representation of the surface energy balance, although significant biases remain.

Description: A macroscale mixture theory analysis of deposition and sublimation rates during heat and mass transfer in dry snow The Cryosphere, 9, 1857-1878, 2015 Author(s): A. C. Hansen and W. E. Foslien The microstructure of a dry alpine snowpack is a dynamic environment where microstructural evolution is driven by seasonal density profiles and weather conditions. Notably, temperature gradients on the order of 10–20 K m −1 , or larger, are known to produce a faceted snow microstructure exhibiting little strength. However, while strong temperature gradients are widely accepted as the primary driver for kinetic growth, they do not fully account for the range of experimental observations. An additional factor influencing snow metamorphism is believed to be the rate of mass transfer at the macroscale. We develop a mixture theory capable of predicting macroscale deposition and/or sublimation in a snow cover under temperature gradient conditions. Temperature gradients and mass exchange are tracked over periods ranging from 1 to 10 days. Interesting heat and mass transfer behavior is observed near the ground, near the surface, as well as immediately above and below dense ice crusts. Information about deposition (condensation) and sublimation rates may help explain snow metamorphism phenomena that cannot be accounted for by temperature gradients alone. The macroscale heat and mass transfer analysis requires accurate representations of the effective thermal conductivity and the effective mass diffusion coefficient for snow. We develop analytical models for these parameters based on first principles at the microscale. The expressions derived contain no empirical adjustments, and further, provide self consistent values for effective thermal conductivity and the effective diffusion coefficient for the limiting cases of air and solid ice. The predicted values for these macroscale material parameters are also in excellent agreement with numerical results based on microscale finite element analyses of representative volume elements generated from X-ray tomography.

Description: Satellite observations of changes in snow-covered land surface albedo during spring in the Northern Hemisphere The Cryosphere, 9, 1879-1893, 2015 Author(s): K. Atlaskina, F. Berninger, and G. de Leeuw Thirteen years of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface albedo data for the Northern Hemisphere during the spring months (March–May) were analyzed to determine temporal and spatial changes over snow-covered land surfaces. Tendencies in land surface albedo change north of 50° N were analyzed using data on snow cover fraction, air temperature, vegetation index and precipitation. To this end, the study domain was divided into six smaller areas, based on their geographical position and climate similarity. Strong differences were observed between these areas. As expected, snow cover fraction (SCF) has a strong influence on the albedo in the study area and can explain 56 % of variation of albedo in March, 76 % in April and 92 % in May. Therefore the effects of other parameters were investigated only for areas with 100 % SCF. The second largest driver for snow-covered land surface albedo changes is the air temperature when it exceeds a value between −15 and −10 °C, depending on the region. At monthly mean air temperatures below this value no albedo changes are observed. The Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and precipitation amount and frequency were independently examined as possible candidates to explain observed changes in albedo for areas with 100 % SCF. Amount and frequency of precipitation were identified to influence the albedo over some areas in Eurasia and North America, but no clear effects were observed in other areas. EVI is positively correlated with albedo in Chukotka Peninsula and negatively in eastern Siberia. For other regions the spatial variability of the correlation fields is too high to reach any conclusions.

Description: Changing surface–atmosphere energy exchange and refreezing capacity of the lower accumulation area, West Greenland The Cryosphere, 9, 2163-2181, 2015 Author(s): C. Charalampidis, D. van As, J. E. Box, M. R. van den Broeke, W. T. Colgan, S. H. Doyle, A. L. Hubbard, M. MacFerrin, H. Machguth, and C. J. P. P. Smeets We present 5 years (2009–2013) of automatic weather station measurements from the lower accumulation area (1840 m a.s.l. – above sea level) of the Greenland ice sheet in the Kangerlussuaq region. Here, the summers of 2010 and 2012 were both exceptionally warm, but only 2012 resulted in a strongly negative surface mass budget (SMB) and surface meltwater run-off. The observed run-off was due to a large ice fraction in the upper 10 m of firn that prevented meltwater from percolating to available pore volume below. Analysis reveals an anomalously low 2012 summer-averaged albedo of 0.71 (typically ~ 0.78), as meltwater was present at the ice sheet surface. Consequently, during the 2012 melt season, the ice sheet surface absorbed 28 % (213 MJ m −2 ) more solar radiation than the average of all other years. A surface energy balance model is used to evaluate the seasonal and interannual variability of all surface energy fluxes. The model reproduces the observed melt rates as well as the SMB for each season. A sensitivity analysis reveals that 71 % of the additional solar radiation in 2012 was used for melt, corresponding to 36 % (0.64 m) of the 2012 surface lowering. The remaining 64 % (1.14 m) of surface lowering resulted from high atmospheric temperatures, up to a +2.6 °C daily average, indicating that 2012 would have been a negative SMB year at this site even without the melt–albedo feedback. Longer time series of SMB, regional temperature, and remotely sensed albedo (MODIS) show that 2012 was the first strongly negative SMB year, with the lowest albedo, at this elevation on record. The warm conditions of recent years have resulted in enhanced melt and reduction of the refreezing capacity in the lower accumulation area. If high temperatures continue, the current lower accumulation area will turn into a region with superimposed ice in coming years.

Description: Comparison of a coupled snow thermodynamic and radiative transfer model with in situ active microwave signatures of snow-covered smooth first-year sea ice The Cryosphere, 9, 2149-2161, 2015 Author(s): M. C. Fuller, T. Geldsetzer, J. Yackel, and J. P. S. Gill Within the context of developing data inversion and assimilation techniques for C-band backscatter over sea ice, snow physical models may be used to drive backscatter models for comparison and optimization with satellite observations. Such modeling has the potential to enhance understanding of snow on sea-ice properties required for unambiguous interpretation of active microwave imagery. An end-to-end modeling suite is introduced, incorporating regional reanalysis data (NARR), a snow model (SNTHERM89.rev4), and a multilayer snow and ice active microwave backscatter model (MSIB). This modeling suite is assessed against measured snow on sea-ice geophysical properties and against measured active microwave backscatter. NARR data were input to the SNTHERM snow thermodynamic model in order to drive the MSIB model for comparison to detailed geophysical measurements and surface-based observations of C-band backscatter of snow on first-year sea ice. The NARR variables were correlated to available in situ measurements with the exception of long-wave incoming radiation and relative humidity, which impacted SNTHERM simulations of snow temperature. SNTHERM snow grain size and density were comparable to observations. The first assessment of the forward assimilation technique developed in this work required the application of in situ salinity profiles to one SNTHERM snow profile, which resulted in simulated backscatter close to that driven by in situ snow properties. In other test cases, the simulated backscatter remained 4–6 dB below observed for higher incidence angles and when compared to an average simulated backscatter of in situ end-member snow covers. Development of C-band inversion and assimilation schemes employing SNTHERM89.rev4 should consider sensitivity of the model to bias in incoming long-wave radiation, the effects of brine, and the inability of SNTHERM89.Rev4 to simulate water accumulation and refreezing at the bottom and mid-layers of the snowpack. These impact thermodynamic response, brine wicking and volume processes, snow dielectrics, and thus microwave backscatter from snow on first-year sea ice.

Description: From Doktor Kurowski's Schneegrenze to our modern glacier equilibrium line altitude (ELA) The Cryosphere, 9, 2135-2148, 2015 Author(s): R. J. Braithwaite Translated into modern terminology, Kurowski suggested in 1891 that the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) of a glacier is equal to the mean altitude of the glacier when the whole glacier is in balance between accumulation and ablation. Kurowski's method has been widely misunderstood, partly due to inappropriate use of statistical terminology by later workers, and has only been tested by Braithwaite and Müller in a 1980 paper (for 32 glaciers). I now compare Kurowski's mean altitude with balanced-budget ELA calculated for 103 present-day glaciers with measured surface mass-balance data. Kurowski's mean altitude is significantly higher (at 95 % level) than balanced-budget ELA for 19 outlet and 42 valley glaciers, but not significantly higher for 34 mountain glaciers. The error in Kurowski mean altitude as a predictor of balanced-budget ELA might be due to generally lower balance gradients in accumulation areas compared with ablation areas for many glaciers, as suggested by several workers, but some glaciers have higher gradients, presumably due to precipitation increase with altitude. The relatively close agreement between balanced-budget ELA and mean altitude for mountain glaciers (mean error – 8 m with standard deviation 59 m) may reflect smaller altitude ranges for these glaciers such that there is less room for effects of different balance gradients to manifest themselves.

Description: A prognostic model of the sea-ice floe size and thickness distribution The Cryosphere, 9, 2119-2134, 2015 Author(s): C. Horvat and E. Tziperman Sea ice exhibits considerable seasonal and longer-term variations in extent, concentration, thickness, and age, and is characterized by a complex and continuously changing distribution of floe sizes and thicknesses, particularly in the marginal ice zone (MIZ). Models of sea ice used in current climate models keep track of its concentration and of the distribution of ice thicknesses, but do not account for the floe size distribution and its potential effects on air–sea exchange and sea-ice evolution. Accurately capturing sea-ice variability in climate models may require a better understanding and representation of the distribution of floe sizes and thicknesses. We develop and demonstrate a model for the evolution of the joint sea-ice floe size and thickness distribution that depends on atmospheric and oceanic forcing fields. The model accounts for effects due to multiple processes that are active in the MIZ and seasonal ice zones: freezing and melting along the lateral side and base of floes, mechanical interactions due to floe collisions (ridging and rafting), and sea-ice fracture due to wave propagation in the MIZ. The model is then examined and demonstrated in a series of idealized test cases.

Description: Winter observations of CO 2 exchange between sea ice and the atmosphere in a coastal fjord environment The Cryosphere, 9, 1701-1713, 2015 Author(s): J. Sievers, L. L. Sørensen, T. Papakyriakou, B. Else, M. K. Sejr, D. Haubjerg Søgaard, D. Barber, and S. Rysgaard Eddy covariance observations of CO 2 fluxes were conducted during March–April 2012 in a temporally sequential order for 8, 4 and 30 days, respectively, at three locations on fast sea ice and on newly formed polynya ice in a coastal fjord environment in northeast Greenland. CO 2 fluxes at the sites characterized by fast sea ice (ICEI and DNB) were found to increasingly reflect periods of strong outgassing in accordance with the progression of springtime warming and the occurrence of strong wind events: F CO 2 ICE1 = 1.73 ± 5 mmol m −2 day −1 and F CO 2 DNB = 8.64 ± 39.64 mmol m −2 day −1 , while CO 2 fluxes at the polynya site (POLYI) were found to generally reflect uptake F CO 2 POLY1 = −9.97 ± 19.8 mmol m −2 day −1 . Values given are the mean and standard deviation, and negative/positive values indicate uptake/outgassing, respectively. A diurnal correlation analysis supports a significant connection between site energetics and CO 2 fluxes linked to a number of possible thermally driven processes, which are thought to change the p CO 2 gradient at the snow–ice interface. The relative influence of these processes on atmospheric exchanges likely depends on the thickness of the ice. Specifically, the study indicates a predominant influence of brine volume expansion/contraction, brine dissolution/concentration and calcium carbonate formation/dissolution at sites characterized by a thick sea-ice cover, such that surface warming leads to an uptake of CO 2 and vice versa, while convective overturning within the sea-ice brines dominate at sites characterized by comparatively thin sea-ice cover, such that nighttime surface cooling leads to an uptake of CO 2 to the extent permitted by simultaneous formation of superimposed ice in the lower snow column.

Description: Exploring the utility of quantitative network design in evaluating Arctic sea ice thickness sampling strategies The Cryosphere, 9, 1721-1733, 2015 Author(s): T. Kaminski, F. Kauker, H. Eicken, and M. Karcher We present a quantitative network design (QND) study of the Arctic sea ice–ocean system using a software tool that can evaluate hypothetical observational networks in a variational data assimilation system. For a demonstration, we evaluate two idealised flight transects derived from NASA's Operation IceBridge airborne ice surveys in terms of their potential to improve 10-day to 5-month sea ice forecasts. As target regions for the forecasts we select the Chukchi Sea, an area particularly relevant for maritime traffic and offshore resource exploration, as well as two areas related to the Barnett ice severity index (BSI), a standard measure of shipping conditions along the Alaskan coast that is routinely issued by ice services. Our analysis quantifies the benefits of sampling upstream of the target area and of reducing the sampling uncertainty. We demonstrate how observations of sea ice and snow thickness can constrain ice and snow variables in a target region and quantify the complementarity of combining two flight transects. We further quantify the benefit of improved atmospheric forecasts and a well-calibrated model.

Description: Constraints on the δ 2 H diffusion rate in firn from field measurements at Summit, Greenland The Cryosphere, 9, 1089-1103, 2015 Author(s): L. G. van der Wel, H. A. Been, R. S. W. van de Wal, C. J. P. P. Smeets, and H. A. J. Meijer We performed detailed 2 H isotope diffusion measurements in the upper 3 m of firn at Summit, Greenland. Using a small snow gun, a thin snow layer was formed from 2 H-enriched water over a 6 × 6 m 2 area. We followed the diffusion process, quantified as the increase of the δ 2 H diffusion length, over a 4-year period, by retrieving the layer once per year by drilling a firn core and slicing it into 1 cm layers and measuring the δ 2 H signal of these layers. We compared our experimental findings to calculations based on the model by Johnsen et al. (2000) and found substantial differences. The diffusion length in our experiments increased much less over the years than in the model. We discuss the possible causes for this discrepancy and conclude that several aspects of the diffusion process in firn are still poorly constrained, in particular the tortuosity.

Description: Air temperature variability over three glaciers in the Ortles–Cevedale (Italian Alps): effects of glacier fragmentation, comparison of calculation methods, and impacts on mass balance modeling The Cryosphere, 9, 1129-1146, 2015 Author(s): L. Carturan, F. Cazorzi, F. De Blasi, and G. Dalla Fontana Glacier mass balance models rely on accurate spatial calculation of input data, in particular air temperature. Lower temperatures (the so-called glacier cooling effect) and lower temperature variability (the so-called glacier damping effect) generally occur over glaciers compared to ambient conditions. These effects, which depend on the geometric characteristics of glaciers and display a high spatial and temporal variability, have been mostly investigated on medium to large glaciers so far, while observations on smaller ice bodies ( 〈 0.5 km 2 ) are scarce. Using a data set from eight on-glacier and four off-glacier weather stations, collected in the summers of 2010 and 2011, we analyzed the air temperature variability and wind regime over three different glaciers in the Ortles–Cevedale. The magnitude of the cooling effect and the occurrence of katabatic boundary layer (KBL) processes showed remarkable differences among the three ice bodies, suggesting the likely existence of important reinforcing mechanisms during glacier decay and fragmentation. The methods proposed by Greuell and Böhm (1998) and Shea and Moore (2010) for calculating on-glacier temperature from off-glacier data did not fully reproduce our observations. Among them, the more physically based procedure of Greuell and Böhm (1998) provided the best overall results where the KBL prevails, but it was not effective elsewhere (i.e., on smaller ice bodies and close to the glacier margins). The accuracy of air temperature estimations strongly impacted the results from a mass balance model which was applied to the three investigated glaciers. Most importantly, even small temperature deviations caused distortions in parameter calibration, thus compromising the model generalizability.

Description: Changes in the firn structure of the western Greenland Ice Sheet caused by recent warming The Cryosphere, 9, 1203-1211, 2015 Author(s): S. de la Peña, I. M. Howat, P. W. Nienow, M. R. van den Broeke, E. Mosley-Thompson, S. F. Price, D. Mair, B. Noël, and A. J. Sole Atmospheric warming over the Greenland Ice Sheet during the last 2 decades has increased the amount of surface meltwater production, resulting in the migration of melt and percolation regimes to higher altitudes and an increase in the amount of ice content from refrozen meltwater found in the firn above the superimposed ice zone. Here we present field and airborne radar observations of buried ice layers within the near-surface (0–20 m) firn in western Greenland, obtained from campaigns between 1998 and 2014. We find a sharp increase in firn-ice content in the form of thick widespread layers in the percolation zone, which decreases the capacity of the firn to store meltwater. The estimated total annual ice content retained in the near-surface firn in areas with positive surface mass balance west of the ice divide in Greenland reached a maximum of 74 ± 25 Gt in 2012, compared to the 1958–1999 average of 13 ± 2 Gt, while the percolation zone area more than doubled between 2003 and 2012. Increased melt and column densification resulted in surface lowering averaging −0.80 ± 0.39 m yr −1 between 1800 and 2800 m in the accumulation zone of western Greenland. Since 2007, modeled annual melt and refreezing rates in the percolation zone at elevations below 2100 m surpass the annual snowfall from the previous year, implying that mass gain in the region is retained after melt in the form of refrozen meltwater. If current melt trends over high elevation regions continue, subsequent changes in firn structure will have implications for the hydrology of the ice sheet and related abrupt seasonal densification could become increasingly significant for altimetry-derived ice sheet mass balance estimates.

Description: Landfast ice thickness in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from observations and models Stephen E. L. Howell, Frédéric Laliberté, Ron Kwok, Chris Derksen, and Joshua King The Cryosphere, 10, 1463-1475, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1463-2016, 2016 The Canadian Ice Service record of observed landfast ice and snow thickness represents one of the longest in the Arctic that spans over 5 decades. We analyze this record to report on long-term trends and variability of ice and snow thickness within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA). Results indicate a thinning of ice at several sites in the CAA. State-of-the-art climate models still have difficultly capturing observed ice thickness values in the CAA and should be used with caution.

Description: Increased nitrate and decreased δ 15 N–NO 3 − in the Greenland Arctic after 1940 attributed to North American oil burning Nathan J. Chellman, Meredith G. Hastings, and Joseph R. McConnell The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-163,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) This manuscript analyzes the changing sources of nitrate deposition to Greenland since 1760 CE using a dataset consisting of sub-seasonally resolved nitrogen isotopes of nitrate and source tracers. Correlations amongst ion concentration, source tracers, and the δ 15 N–NO 3 − provide evidence of the impact of biomass burning and fossil fuel combustion emissions of nitrogen oxides and suggest that oil combustion is the likely driver of increased nitrate concentration in Greenland ice since 1940 CE.

Description: Response of seasonal soil freeze depth to climate change across China Xiaoqing Peng, Oliver W. Frauenfeld, Tingjun Zhang, Kang Wang, Bin Cao, Xinyue Zhong, Hang Su, and Cuicui Mu The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-129,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) Previous researches paid more attention on the permafrost, e.g. active layer thickness, soil temperature, permafrost area extent, and associated with permafrost degradation leading other changes. However, seasonally frozen ground, vast area extent, did not focus by so much attention. Here, we combined more than 800 observation station data and gridded data to investigate soil freeze depth across China. The results indicate that soil freeze depth increase with climate warming.

Description: Circumpolar polynya regions and ice production in the Arctic: Results from MODIS thermal infrared imagery for 2002/2003 to 2014/2015 with a regional focus on the Laptev Sea Andreas Preußer, Günther Heinemann, Sascha Willmes, and Stephan Paul The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-133,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) Our study presents spatial and temporal characteristics of 16 prominent polynya regions over the entire Arctic basin. By using an energy balance model, we are able to derive daily thin-ice thickness distributions from satellite and atmospheric reanalysis data. All polynyas combined yield an average ice production of about 1444 km 3 per winter. Interestingly, we find distinct regional differences in calculated trends over the last 13 years. Finally, we set a special focus on the Laptev Sea region.

Description: Radiocarbon dating of glacier ice Chiara Uglietti, Alexander Zapf, Theo M. Jenk, Sönke Szidat, Gary Salazar, and Margit Schwikowski The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-160,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) A meaningful interpretation of the climatic history contained in ice cores requires a precise chronology. For dating the older and deeper part of the glaciers, radiocarbon analysis can be used, when organic matter such as plant or insect fragments is found in the ice. Since this happens rarely, a complementary dating tool is based on radiocarbon dating of the insoluble fraction of carbonaceous aerosols entrapped in the ice, allowing dating ice with ages between 200 and more than 10 000 years.

Description: Wave climate in the Arctic 1992–2014: seasonality and trends Justin E. Stopa, Fabrice Ardhuin, and Fanny Girard-Ardhuin The Cryosphere, 10, 1605-1629, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1605-2016, 2016 Satellite observations show the Arctic sea ice has decreased the last 30 years. From our wave model hindcast and satellite altimeter datasets we observe profound increasing wave heights, which are caused by the loss of sea ice and not the driving winds. If ice-free conditions persist later into fall, then regions like the Beaufort–Chukchi Sea will be prone to developing larger waves since the driving winds are strong this time of year.

Description: Microstructure representation of snow in coupled snowpack and microwave emission models Melody Sandells, Richard Essery, Nick Rutter, Leanne Wake, Leena Leppänen, and Juha Lemmetyinen The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-181,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) This study looks at a wide range of options for simulating sensor signals for satellite monitoring of water stored as snow, though an ensemble of 1323 coupled snow evolution and microwave scattering models. The greatest improvements will be made with better computer simulations of how the snow microstructure changes, followed by how the microstructure scatters radiation at microwave frequencies. Snow compaction should also be considered in systems to monitor snow mass from space.

Description: Brief communication: Organochlorine pesticides in an archived firn core from Law Dome, East Antarctica Marie Bigot, Mark A. J. Curran, Andrew D. Moy, Derek C. G. Muir, Darryl W. Hawker, Roger Cropp, Camilla F. Teixeira, and Susan Bengtson Nash The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-178,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) Organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) were, for the first time, quantified in archived firn cores from the East Antarctic ice sheet representative of 1945–1957 C.E. and 1958–1967 C.E. The core sections were melted under high purity nitrogen atmosphere and the melt water analysed. Methods allowed quantification of hexachlorocyclohexanes, heptachlor, trans-chlordane, dieldrin and endrin. While the core presented evidence of nominal modern-use chemical contamination, indicating handling and/or storage contamination, legacy OCP concentrations and deposition rates reported are orders of magnitude lower than those from Arctic regions, lending support for their validity. The study further provides a description of equipment used and suggests adapted methods to overcome logistical challenges associated with trace organic contaminant detection in Polar Regions.

Description: Statistical indicators of Arctic sea-ice stability – prospects and limitations Sebastian Bathiany, Bregje van der Bolt, Mark S. Williamson, Timothy M. Lenton, Marten Scheffer, Egbert H. van Nes, and Dirk Notz The Cryosphere, 10, 1631-1645, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1631-2016, 2016 We examine if a potential "tipping point" in Arctic sea ice, causing abrupt and irreversible sea-ice loss, could be foreseen with statistical early warning signals. We assess this idea by using several models of different complexity. We find robust and consistent trends in variability that are not specific to the existence of a tipping point. While this makes an early warning impossible, it allows to estimate sea-ice variability from only short observational records or reconstructions.

Description: Greenland annual accumulation along the EGIG line, 1959–2004, from ASIRAS airborne radar and neutron-probe density measurements Thomas B. Overly, Robert L. Hawley, Veit Helm, Elizabeth M. Morris, and Rohan N. Chaudhary The Cryosphere, 10, 1679-1694, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1679-2016, 2016 We demonstrate that snow accumulation rates across the Greenland Ice Sheet, determined from RADAR layers and modeled snow density profiles, are identical to ground-based measurements of snow accumulation. Three regional climate models underestimate snow accumulation compared to RADAR layer estimates. Using RADAR increases spatial coverage and improves accuracy of snow accumulation estimates. Incorporating our results into climate models may reduce uncertainty of sea-level rise estimates.

Description: Thermal impacts of engineering activities and vegetation layer on permafrost in different alpine ecosystems of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, China Qingbai Wu, Zhongqiong Zhang, Siru Gao, and Wei Ma The Cryosphere, 10, 1695-1706, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1695-2016, 2016 Climate warming and engineering activities have various impacts on the thermal regime of permafrost in alpine ecosystems of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Using recent observations of permafrost thermal regimes along the Qinghai–Tibet highway and railway, the changes of such regimes beneath embankments constructed in alpine meadows and steppes are studied. The results show that alpine meadows on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau can have a controlling role among engineering construction effects on permafrost beneath embankments. As before railway construction, the artificial permafrost table (APT) beneath embankments is not only affected by climate change and engineering activities but is also controlled by alpine ecosystems. However, the change rate of APT is not dependent on ecosystem type, which is predominantly affected by climate change and engineering activities. Instead, the rate is mainly related to cooling effects of railway ballast and heat absorption effects of asphalt pavement. No large difference between alpine and steppe can be identified regarding the variation of soil temperature beneath embankments, but this difference is readily identified in the variation of mean annual soil temperature with depth. The vegetation layer in alpine meadows has an insulation role among engineering activity effects on permafrost beneath embankments, but this insulation gradually disappears because the layer decays and compresses over time. On the whole, this layer is advantageous for alleviating permafrost temperature rise in the short term, but its effect gradually weakens in the long term.

Description: Combined diurnal variations of discharge and hydrochemistry of the Isunnguata Sermia outlet of the Greenland Ice Sheet give in sight on sub glacial conditions Joseph Graly, Joel Harrington, and Neil Humphrey The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-137,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) At a major outlet of the Greenland Ice Sheet in West Greenland, we find that the chemical solutes is the emerging subglacial waters are out of phase with water discharge and can spike in concentration during waning flow. This suggests that the subglacial waters are spreading out across a large area of the glacial bed throughout the day, stimulating chemical weathering beyond the major water distribution channels.

Description: Impact of Icebergs on Net Primary Productivity in the Southern Ocean Shuang-Ye Wu and Shugui Hou The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-166,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) The primary productivity in the Southern Ocean (SO) is limited by the amount of iron available for biological activities. Recent studies show that icebergs could be a main source of iron to the SO. Based on remote sensing data, our study shows that iceberg presence has a small, yet statistically significant, positive impact on productivity. As iceberg quantity increases, their positive influence on productivity also increases. This impact could serve as a negative feedback to the climate system.

Description: Possible groundwater dominance in the subglacial hydrology of ice sheet interiors: example at Dome C, East Antarctica Brad T. Gooch, Sasha P. Carter, Omar Ghattas, Duncan A. Young, and Donald D. Blankenship The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-141,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) Our work investigates the potential significance of groundwater flow underneath the interior of East Antarctica where the ice doesn't rapidly melt. We attempt to describe the relationship between two hydrologic systems (water under the ice and in the ground) and how they might interact along a flow path between lakes under the ice. We find that groundwater is significant in regional water transport for melt water under the ice in areas of low melting in East Antarctica.

Description: Design of a scanning laser meter for monitoring the spatio-temporal evolution of snow depth and its application in the Alps and in Antarctica Ghislain Picard, Laurent Arnaud, Jean-Michel Panel, and Samuel Morin The Cryosphere, 10, 1495-1511, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1495-2016, 2016 A cost-effective automatic laser scan has been built to measure snow depth spatio-temporal variations. Deployed in the Alps and in Dome C (Antarctica), two devices acquired daily scans covering a surface area of 100–150 m 2 . The precision and long-term stability of the measurements are about 1 cm and the accuracy is better than 5 cm. These high performances are particularly suited at Dome C, where it was possible to reveal that most of the accumulation in the year 2015 stems from a single event.

Description: An ice-sheet-wide framework for englacial attenuation from ice-penetrating radar data T. M. Jordan, J. L. Bamber, C. N. Williams, J. D. Paden, M. J. Siegert, P. Huybrechts, O. Gagliardini, and F. Gillet-Chaulet The Cryosphere, 10, 1547-1570, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1547-2016, 2016 Ice penetrating radar enables determination of the basal properties of ice sheets. Existing algorithms assume stationarity in the attenuation rate, which is not justifiable at an ice sheet scale. We introduce the first ice-sheet-wide algorithm for radar attenuation that incorporates spatial variability, using the temperature field from a numerical model as an initial guess. The study is a step toward ice-sheet-wide data products for basal properties and evaluation of model temperature fields.

Description: Snowpack modelling in the Pyrenees driven by kilometric-resolution meteorological forecasts Louis Quéno, Vincent Vionnet, Ingrid Dombrowski-Etchevers, Matthieu Lafaysse, Marie Dumont, and Fatima Karbou The Cryosphere, 10, 1571-1589, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1571-2016, 2016 Simulations are carried out in the Pyrenees with the snowpack model Crocus, driven by meteorological forecasts from the model AROME at kilometer resolution. The evaluation is done with ground-based measurements, satellite data and reference simulations. Studying daily snow depth variations allows to separate different physical processes affecting the snowpack. We show the benefits of AROME kilometric resolution and dynamical behavior in terms of snowpack spatial variability in a mountain range.

Description: Connected subglacial lake drainage beneath Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica Benjamin E. Smith, Noel Gourmelen, Alexander Huth, and Ian Joughin The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-180,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) In this paper we investigate elevation changes of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, one of the main sources of excess ice discharge into the ocean. We find that in early 2013, four subglacial lakes separated by 100 km drained suddenly, discharging more than three cubic kilometers of water under the fastest part of the glacier in less than six months. Concurrent ice-speed measurements show only minor changes, suggesting that ice dynamics are not strongly sensitive to changes in water flow.

Description: Isotopic exchange on the diurnal scale between near-surface snow and lower atmospheric water vapor at Kohnen station, East Antarctica François Ritter, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Martin Werner, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Anais Orsi, Melanie Behrens, Gerit Birnbaum, Johannes Freitag, Camille Risi, and Sepp Kipfstuhl The Cryosphere, 10, 1647-1663, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1647-2016, 2016 We present the first successful continuous measurements of water vapor isotopes performed in Antarctica in January 2013. The interest is to understand the impact of the water vapor isotopic composition on the near-surface snow isotopes. Our study reveals a diurnal cycle in the snow isotopic composition in phase with the vapor. This finding suggests fractionation during the sublimation of the ice, which has an important consequence on the interpretation of water isotope variations in ice cores.

Description: An automated methodology for differentiating rock from snow, clouds and sea in Antarctica from Landsat 8 imagery: a new rock outcrop map and area estimation for the entire Antarctic continent Alex Burton-Johnson, Martin Black, Peter T. Fretwell, and Joseph Kaluza-Gilbert The Cryosphere, 10, 1665-1677, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1665-2016, 2016 We present a new rock outcrop map for the entire Antarctic continent, a principal base dataset for research and mapping in Antarctica with broad applications. To derive the map, a new methodology was developed and applied to allow automated identification of rock outcrops from Landsat 8 satellite images whilst excluding sunlit and shaded snow, clouds and liquid water – the first such automated methodology. The new dataset reveals that exposed rock forms only 0.18 % of the entire continent.

Description: Evaposublimation from the snow in the Mediterranean mountains of Sierra Nevada (Spain) Javier Herrero and María José Polo The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-161,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) This manuscript presents 7 years of field work and modelling to assess the importance of the loss of water from the snow by means of sublimation in the Mediterranean mountains of Sierra Nevada. The actual sublimation rates were detected through detailed measurement of the mass fluxes from the snow. These data have led to some improvements in the modelling of the snow in this kind of mountainous semiarid regions. The sublimation is estimated to range between 24–33 % of total annual snowfall.

Description: Signature of Arctic first-year ice melt pond fraction in X-band SAR imagery Ane S. Fors, Dmitry V. Divine, Anthony P. Doulgeris, Angelika H. H. Renner, and Sebastian Gerland The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-125,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) This paper investigates the signature of melt ponds in satellite borne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery. The study shows that polarimetric X-band SAR can be used to extract melt pond fraction from drifting first-year sea ice, and discusses the influence of factors like wind speed, SAR incidence angle and instrument noise floor. Melt ponds strongly influence the Arctic sea ice energy budget, and the results imply prospective opportunities for expanded monitoring of melt ponds from space.

Description: Diagnosing the decline in climatic mass balance of glaciers in Svalbard over 1957–2014 Torbjørn Ims Østby, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Jon Ove Hagen, Regine Hock, Jack Kohler, and Carleen H. Reijmer The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-172,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) We present modeled climatic mass balance for all glaciers in Svalbard for the period 1957–2014 at 1 km resolution using a coupled surface energy balance and snowpack model, thereby closing temporal and spatial gaps in direct and geodetic mass balance estimates. Supporting previous studies, our results indicate increased mass loss over the period. A detailed analysis of the involved energy fluxes reveals that increased mass loss is caused by atmospheric warming further amplified by feedbacks.

Description: Simulating ice layer formation under the presence of preferential flow in layered snowpacks Nander Wever, Sebastian Würzer, Charles Fierz, and Michael Lehning The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-185,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) The study presents a dual domain approach to simulate liquid water flow in snow using the 1-dimensional physics based snow cover model SNOWPACK. In this approach, the pore space is separated into a part for matrix flow and a part that represents preferential flow. Using this approach, water can percolate sub-freezing snow and form dense (ice) layers. A comparison with snow pits shows that some of the observed ice layers were reproduced by the model while others remain challenging to simulate.

Description: Marine ice sheet model performance depends on basal sliding physics and sub-shelf melting Rupert Michael Gladstone, Roland Charles Warner, Benjamin Keith Galton-Fenzi, Olivier Gagliardini, Thomas Zwinger, and Ralf Greve The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-149,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) Computer models are used to simulate the behaviour of glaciers and ice sheets. It has been found that such models are required to be run at very high resolution (which means high computational expense) in order to accurately represent the evolution of marine ice sheets (ice sheets resting on bedrock below sea level), in certain situations.

Description: Effects of Seasonal Snow Cover on Hydrothermal Conditions of the Active Layer in the Northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Ji Chen, Yu Sheng, Qingbai Wu, Lin Zhao, Jing Li, and Jingyi Zhao The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-134,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) The extreme thin and short-time snow cover in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet plateau is predominantly during spring and autumn. Removal of seasonal snow cover is beneficial for cooling the active layer in the first few years. Seasonal snow cover maintains the high water content of the active layer because of the inhibitory action of snow cover on the evaporation capacity in the natural site during the daytime and in summer. Snow removal can therefore lead to a rapid decrease of soil moisture.

Description: Surface mass balance and water stable isotopes derived from firn cores on three ice rises, Fimbul Ice Shelf, Antarctica Carmen P. Vega, Elisabeth Schlosser, Dmitry V. Divine, Jack Kohler, Tõnu Martma, Anja Eichler, Margit Schwikowski, and Elisabeth Isaksson The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-164,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) Surface mass balance and water stable isotopes from firn cores on three ice rises at Fimbul Ice Shelf, are reported. The results suggest that the ice rises are suitable sites for the retrieval of longer firn and ice cores. The first deuterium excess data for the area suggests a possible role of seasonal moisture transport changes on the annual isotopic signal. Large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns most likely provide the dominant influence on water stable isotope ratios at the sites.

Description: Reflective properties of white and snow-covered sea ice Aleksey Malinka, Eleonora Zege, Georg Heygster, and Larysa Istomina The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-153,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) The amount of melt ponds on Arctic summer sea ice and its reflectance are required for better climate modelling and weather prediction. In order to derive these quantities from optical satellite observations, simple analytical formulas for the bidirectional reflectance factor and albedo at direct and diffuse incidence are derived from basic assumptions and verified with in situ measurements made during the expedition ARK-XXVII/3 of research vessel Polarstern in 2012.

Description: Application and validation of long-range terrestrial laser scanning to monitor the mass balance of very small glaciers in the Swiss Alps Mauro Fischer, Matthias Huss, Mario Kummert, and Martin Hoelzle The Cryosphere, 10, 1279-1295, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1279-2016, 2016 This study provides the first thorough validation of geodetic glacier mass changes derived from close-range high-resolution remote sensing techniques, and highlights the potential of terrestrial laser scanning for repeated mass balance monitoring of very small alpine glaciers. The presented methodology is promising, as laborious and potentially dangerous in situ measurements as well as the spatial inter- and extrapolation of point measurements over the entire glacier can be circumvented.

Description: Greenland Ice Sheet seasonal and spatial mass variability from model simulations and GRACE (2003–2012) Patrick M. Alexander, Marco Tedesco, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Scott B. Luthcke, Xavier Fettweis, and Eric Larour The Cryosphere, 10, 1259-1277, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1259-2016, 2016 We compared satellite-derived estimates of spatial and seasonal variations in Greenland Ice Sheet mass with a set of model simulations, revealing an agreement between models and satellite estimates for the ice-sheet-wide seasonal fluctuations in mass, but disagreement at finer spatial scales. The model simulations underestimate low-elevation mass loss. Improving the ability of models to capture variations and trends in Greenland Ice Sheet mass is important for estimating future sea level rise.

Description: Development and calibration of an automatic spectral albedometer to estimate near-surface snow SSA time series Ghislain Picard, Quentin Libois, Laurent Arnaud, Gauthier Verin, and Marie Dumont The Cryosphere, 10, 1297-1316, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1297-2016, 2016 Albedo of snow surfaces depends on snow grain size. By measuring albedo during 3 years at Dome C in Antarctica with an automatic spectroradiometer, we were able to monitor the snow specific surface area and show an overall growth of the grains in spring and summer followed by an accumulation of small-grained snow from mid-summer. This study focuses on the uncertainties due to the spectroradiometer and concludes that the observed variations are significant with respect to the precision.

Description: Which are the highest peaks in the US Arctic? Fodar settles the debate Matt Nolan and Kit DesLauriers The Cryosphere, 10, 1245-1257, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1245-2016, 2016 We measured the heights of the five tallest peaks in the US Arctic using fodar, a new airborne photogrammetric technique using structure-from-motion software. The highest peaks are Mt Isto (2735.6 m), Mt. Hubley (2717.6 m), Mt. Chamberlin (2712.3 m), Mt. Michelson (2698.1 m), and an unnamed peak (2694.9 m). We found fodar suitable for topographic change detection on the centimeter scale in steep mountain terrain, such as for measuring snow depths.

Description: Three-year monitoring of stable isotopes of precipitation at Concordia Station, East Antarctica Barbara Stenni, Claudio Scarchilli, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Elisabeth Schlosser, Virginia Ciardini, Giuliano Dreossi, Paolo Grigioni, Mattia Bonazza, Anselmo Cagnati, Daniele Karlicek, Camille Risi, Roberto Udisti, and Mauro Valt The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-142,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) Here, we focus on the Concordia Station, central East Antarctic plateau, providing a multi-year record (2008–2010) of daily precipitation types identified from crystal morphologies, precipitation amounts, and isotopic composition. Relationships between local meteorological data and precipitation oxygen isotope composition are investigated. Our dataset is available for in depth model evaluation at the synoptic scale.

Description: Development and analysis of a continuous record of global near-surface soil freeze/thaw patterns from AMSR-E and AMSR2 data Tongxi Hu, Tianjie Zhao, Jiancheng Shi, Tianxing Wang, Dabin Ji, Ahmad Al Bitar, Bin Peng, and Yurong Cui The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-115,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) We present an approach of satellite remote sensing to derive a continuous long term and stable data record of the near-surface freeze/thaw cycle over the permafrost and seasonally frozen ground. We find that the distribution of the frost days and its trend variations are consistent with the minimum temperature anomalies. Analysis over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau demonstrates that the frost period is shortening slightly over the past decade, and the last frost date is advanced in most regions.

Description: Operational algorithm for ice/water classification on dual-polarized RADARSAT-2 images Natalia Zakhvatkina, Anton Korosov, Stefan Muckenhuber, Stein Sandven, and Mohamed Babiker The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-131,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) The presented fully automated algorithm distinguishes open water (rough/calm) and sea ice based on dual-polarized RS2 SAR images. Texture features are used for Support Vector Machines supervised image classification. The algorithm includes pre-processing and validation procedures. More than 2700 scenes were processed and the results show the good discrimination between open water and sea ice areas with accuracy 91 % compared with ice charts produced by MET Norway service.

Description: Imaging air volume fraction in sea ice using non-destructive X-ray tomography Odile Crabeck, Ryan Galley, Bruno Delille, Brent Else, Nicolas-Xavier Geilfus, Marcos Lemes, Mathieu Des Roches, Pierre Francus, Jean-Louis Tison, and Søren Rysgaard The Cryosphere, 10, 1125-1145, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1125-2016, 2016 We present a new non-destructive X-ray-computed tomography technique to quantify the air volume fraction and produce separate 3-D images of air-volume inclusions in sea ice. While the internal layers showed air-volume fractions 〈 2 %, the ice–air interface (top 2 cm) showed values up to 5 %. As a result of the presence of large bubbles and higher air volume fraction measurements in sea ice, we introduce new perspectives on processes regulating gas exchange at the ice–atmosphere interface.

Description: Monitoring the temperature dependent elastic and anelastic properties in isotropic polycrystalline ice using resonant ultrasound spectroscopy Matthew J. Vaughan, Kasper van Wilk, David J. Prior, and M. Hamish Bowman The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-127,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) The physical properties of ice are of interest in the study of the dynamics of sea ice, glaciers and ice sheets. We used resonant ultrasound spectroscopy to estimate the effects of temperature on the elastic and an-elastic characteristics of polycrystalline ice, which control the propagation of sound waves. This information helps calibrate seismic data, in order to determine regional scale ice properties, improving our ability to predict ice sheet behaviour in response to climate change.

Description: Basal buoyancy and fast-moving glaciers: in defense of analytic force balance C. J. van der Veen The Cryosphere, 10, 1331-1337, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1331-2016, 2016 This paper evaluates the geometric force balance, with application to Byrd Glacier, Antarctica. It is concluded that this approach does not yield physically reasonable results.

Description: Assessment of Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Predictability in CMIP5 Decadal Hindcasts Chao-Yuan Yang, Jiping Liu, Yongyun Hu, Radley M. Horton, Liqi Chen, and Xiao Cheng The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-97,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) This paper examines the ability of coupled global climate models to predict decadal variability of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice. We analyze decadal hindcasts/predictions of 11 CMIP5 models. Decadal hindcasts exhibit a large multi-model spread in the simulated sea ice extent, with some models deviating significantly from the observations. For the models having large biases and using full-field initialization, the predicted sea ice extent quickly drifts away from the initial constraint, deteriorating the decadal predictive skill. The anomaly correlation analysis between the decadal hindcast and observed sea ice suggests that in the Arctic, for most models, the areas showing significant predictive skill become broader associated with increasing lead times. This area expansion is largely because nearly all the models are capable of predicting the observed decreasing Arctic sea ice cover. Sea ice extent in the north Pacific has better predictive skill than that in the north Atlantic (particularly at a lead-time of 3–7 years), but there is a re-emerging predictive skill in the north Atlantic at a lead-time of 6–8 years. In contrast to the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice decadal hindcasts do not show broad predictive skill at any time scales, and there is no obvious improvement linking the areal extent of significant predictive skill to lead-time increase. This might be because nearly all the models predict a retreating Antarctic sea ice cover, opposite to the observations. For the Arctic, the predictive skill of the MMEE outperforms most models and the persistence prediction at longer time scales, which is not the case for the Antarctic.

Description: On the recent contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea level change Michiel van den Broeke, Ellyn Enderlin, Ian Howat, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Brice Noël, Willem Jan van de Berg, Erik van Meijgaard, and Bert Wouters The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-123,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) We present recent (1958–2015) mass balance time series for the Greenland ice sheet. We show that recent mass loss is caused by a combination of increased surface meltwater runoff and solid ice discharge. Most meltwater above 2000 m a.s.l. refreezes in the cold firn and does not leave the ice sheet, but this goes at the expense of firn heating and densifying. In spite of a temporary rebound in 2013, it appears that the ice sheet remains in a state of persistent mass loss

Description: Reconstructing the mass balance of Brewster Glacier, New Zealand, using MODIS-derived glacier-wide albedo Pascal Sirguey, Holly Still, Nicolas J. Cullen, Marie Dumont, Yves Arnaud, and Jonathan P. Conway The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-98,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) 14 years of satellite observations are used to monitor the albedo of Brewster Glacier, New Zealand and estimate annual and seasonal balances. This confirms the governing role of the summer balance in the annual balance and allows the reconstruction of the annual balance back to 1977 using a photographic record of the snowline. The longest mass balance record for a New Zealand glacier shows that negative balances after 2008 yielded a loss of 35 % of the gain accumulated over the previous 30 years.

Description: Modeling debris-covered glaciers: response to steady debris deposition Leif S. Anderson and Robert S. Anderson The Cryosphere, 10, 1105-1124, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1105-2016, 2016 Mountains erode and shed rocks down slope. When these rocks (debris) fall on glacier ice they can suppress ice melt. By protecting glaciers from melt, debris can make glaciers extend to lower elevations. Using mathematical models of glaciers and debris deposition, we find that debris can more than double the length of glaciers. The amount of debris deposited on the glacier, which scales with mountain height and steepness, is the most important control on debris-covered glacier length and volume.

Description: Improving satellite-retrieved surface radiative fluxes in polar regions using a smart sampling approach Kristof Van Tricht, Stef Lhermitte, Irina V. Gorodetskaya, and Nicole P. M. van Lipzig The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-103,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) Despite the crucial role of polar regions in the global climate system, the limited availability of observations on the ground hampers a detailed understanding of their energy budget. Here we develop a method to use satellites to fill these observational gaps. We show that by sampling satellite observations in a smart way, coverage is greatly enhanced. We conclude that this method might help improving our understanding of the polar energy budget, and ultimately its effects in the global climate.

Description: Impacts of marine instability across the East Antarctic Ice Sheet on Southern Ocean dynamics Steven J. Phipps, Christopher J. Fogwill, and Christian S. M. Turney The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-111,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) We explore the effects of melting of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet on the Southern Ocean. Using a climate model, we find that melting changes the ocean circulation and causes warming of more than 1 ºC at depth. We also discover the potential existence of a "domino effect", whereby the initial warming spreads westwards around the Antarctic continent. Melting of just one sector could therefore destabilise the wider Antarctic Ice Sheet, leading to substantial increases in global sea level.

Description: Mechanism of Seasonal Arctic Sea Ice Evolution and Arctic Amplification Kwang-Yul Kim, Benjamin D. Hamlington, Hanna Na, and Jinju Kim The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-69,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) Analysis reveals that "Arctic Amplification", lower tropospheric winter temperature rise in the Arctic, is due to sea ice melting and the resulting increase in the amount of turbulent heat flux from the ocean. As a result of increased turbulent heat flux, lower atmosphere warms up, resulting in increased downward longwave radiation. A detailed physical mechanism is presented together with an explanation why this positive feedback process is currently possible in the Barents-Kara Seas.

Description: Glacier melting and precipitation trends detected by surface area changes in Himalayan ponds Franco Salerno, Sudeep Thakuri, Nicolas Guyennon, Gaetano Viviano, and Gianni Tartari The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-39,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) This contribution shows that the surface area variations of unconnected glacial ponds, i.e., ponds not directly connected to glaciers, can be considered suitable proxies for detecting changes in the main hydrological components of the water balance on the south side of Mt. Everest.

Description: Glacier melting and precipitation trends detected by surface area changes in Himalayan ponds Franco Salerno, Sudeep Thakuri, Nicolas Guyennon, Gaetano Viviano, and Gianni Tartari The Cryosphere, 10, 1433-1448, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1433-2016, 2016 This contribution shows that the surface area variations of unconnected glacial ponds, i.e. ponds not directly connected to glacier ice, can be considered as suitable proxies for detecting past changes in the main hydrological components of the water balance (glacier melt, precipitation, evaporation) on the south side of Mt Everest.

Description: Strain localisation and dynamic recrystallisation in the ice-air aggregate: A numerical study Florian Steinbach, Paul D. Bons, Albert Griera, Daniela Jansen, Maria-Gema Llorens, Jens Roessiger, and Ilka Weikusat The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-167,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) How glaciers or ice sheets flow is a result of microscopic processes controlled by the properties of individual ice crystals. We performed computer simulations on these processes and the effect of air bubbles between crystals. The simulations show that small scale ice deformation is locally stronger than in other regions, which is enhanced by bubbles. This causes the ice crystals to recrystallise and change their properties in a way that potentially also affects the large scale flow properties.

Description: Brief Communication: Twelve-year cyclic surging episodes at Donjek Glacier in Yukon, Canada Takahiro Abe, Masato Furuya, and Daiki Sakakibara The Cryosphere, 10, 1427-1432, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1427-2016, 2016 We identified 12-year cyclic surging episodes at Donjek Glacier in Yukon, Canada. The surging area is limited within the ~20km section from the terminus, originating in an area where the flow width significantly narrows downstream. Our results suggest strong control of the valley constriction on the surge dynamics.

Description: Age of the Mt. Ortles ice cores, the Tyrolean Iceman and glaciation of the highest summit of South Tyrol since the Northern Hemisphere Climatic Optimum Paolo Gabrielli, Carlo Barbante, Giuliano Bertagna, Michele Bertó, Daniel Binder, Alberto Carton, Luca Carturan, Federico Cazorzi, Giulio Cozzi, Giancarlo Dalla Fontana, Mary Davis, Fabrizio De Blasi, Roberto Dinale, Gianfranco Dragà, Giuliano Dreossi, Daniela Festi, Massimo Frezzotti, Jacopo Gabrieli, Stephan Galos, Patrick Ginot, Petra Heidenwolf, Theo M. Jenk, Natalie Kehrwald, Donald Kenny, Olivier Magand, Volkmar Mair, Vladimir Mikhalenko, Ping Nan Lin, Klaus Oeggl, Gianni Piffer, Mirko Rinaldi, Ulrich Schotterer, Margit Schwikowski, Roberto Seppi, Andrea Spolaor, Barbara Stenni, Davdi Tonidandel, CChiara Uglietti, Victor Zagorodnov, Thomas Zanoner, and Piero Zennaro The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-159,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) New ice cores were extracted from Alto dell'Ortles, the highest glacier of South Tyrol in the Italian Alps, to check whether prehistoric ice, that is coeval to the famous 5200 years old Tyrolean Iceman, is still preserved in this region. Dating of the ice cores confirms the hypothesis and indicates that the drilling site was glaciated since the end of the Northern Hemisphere Climatic Optimum (7000 BP). We also infer that an unprecedented acceleration of the glacier flow has just recently begun.

Description: Coastal dynamics and submarine permafrost in shallow water of the central Laptev Sea, East Siberia Pier Paul Overduin, Sebastian Wetterich, Frank Günther, Mikhail N. Grigoriev, Guido Grosse, Lutz Schirrmeister, Hans-Wolfgang Hubberten, and Aleksandr Makarov The Cryosphere, 10, 1449-1462, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1449-2016, 2016 How fast does permafrost warm up and thaw after it is covered by the sea? Ice-rich permafrost in the Laptev Sea, Siberia, is rapidly eroded by warm air and waves. We used a floating electrical technique to measure the depth of permafrost thaw below the sea, and compared it to 60 years of coastline retreat and permafrost depths from drilling 30 years ago. Thaw is rapid right after flooding of the land and slows over time. The depth of permafrost is related to how fast the coast retreats.

Description: Inversion of geothermal heat flux in a thermomechanically coupled nonlinear Stokes ice sheet model Hongyu Zhu, Noemi Petra, Georg Stadler, Tobin Isaac, Thomas J. R. Hughes, and Omar Ghattas The Cryosphere, 10, 1477-1494, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1477-2016, 2016 We study how well the basal geothermal heat flux can be inferred from surface velocity observations using a thermomechanically coupled nonlinear Stokes ice sheet model. The prospects and limitations of this inversion is studied in two and three dimensional model problems. We also argue that a one-way coupled approach for the adjoint equations motivated by staggered solvers for forward multiphysics problems can lead to an incorrect gradient and premature termination of the optimization iteration.

Description: Slight glacier reduction over the northwestern Tibetan Plateau despite significant recent warming Yetang Wang, Shugui Hou, Wenling An, Hongxi Pang, and Yaping Liu The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-165,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) This study further confirms "Pamir–Karakoram–Western-Kunlun-Mountain (northwestern Tibetan Plateau) Glacier Anomaly". Slight glacier reduction over the northwestern Tibetan Plateau may result from more accumulation from increased precipitation in winter which to great extent protects it from mass reductions under climate warming during 1961–2000. Warming slowdown since 2000 happening at this region may further mitigate glacier mass reduction.

Description: Characteristics of an avalanche-feeding and partially debris-covered glacier and its response to atmospheric warming in Mt. Tomor, Tian Shan, China Puyu Wang, Zhongqin Li, and Huilin Li The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-138,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) A cirque-valley glacier with complex topography and partially debris-covered area was investigated in the Mt. Tomor, Tian Shan. The glacier is analogous to temperate one on movement and temperature regimes. The strongest ablation and most significant terminus retreat and area reduction occurred at the end of last century and the beginning of this century. Since inhibition of debris cover to melting, it is expected to keep shrinkage in the coming decades, but the terminus retreat is to be slower.

Description: Arctic sea-ice diffusion from observed and simulated Lagrangian trajectories Pierre Rampal, Sylvain Bouillon, Jon Bergh, and Einar Ólason The Cryosphere, 10, 1513-1527, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1513-2016, 2016 Due to the increasing activity in Arctic, sea-ice–ocean models are now frequently used to produce operational forecasts, for oil spill trajectory modelling and to assist in offshore operations planning. In this study we evaluate the performance of two models with respect to their capability to reproduce observed sea ice diffusion properties by using metrics based on Lagrangian statistics. This paper presents a new and useful evaluation metric for current coupled sea ice–ocean models.

Description: Retrieval of the thickness of undeformed sea ice from simulated C-band compact polarimetric SAR images Xi Zhang, Wolfgang Dierking, Jie Zhang, Junmin Meng, and Haitao Lang The Cryosphere, 10, 1529-1545, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1529-2016, 2016 In this work, we introduced a parameter ("CP ratio") for the retrieval of the thickness of undeformed first-year sea ice that is specifically adapted to compact polarimetric SAR images. Based on a validation using other compact polarimetric SAR images from the Labrador Sea, we found a root mean square error of 8 cm and a maximum correlation coefficient of 0.94 for the retrieval procedure when applying it to level ice between 0.1 m and 0.8 m thick.

Description: High resolution boundary conditions of an old ice target near Dome C, Antarctica Duncan A. Young, Jason L. Roberts, Catherine Ritz, Massimo Frezzotti, Enrica Quartini, Marie G. P. Cavitte, Carly R. Tozer, Daniel Steinhage, Stefano Urbini, Hugh F. J. Corr, Tas Van Ommen, and Donald D. Blankenship The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-169,2016 Manuscript under review for TC (discussion: open, 0 comments) Glacial ice can preserve records of Earth's ancient atmosphere (including greenhouse gases) that can be compared to ocean sediment records of ice sheet size to better understand climate feedbacks. To find records of the greenhouse gases found in key periods of climate transition, we need to find sites of unmelted old ice near the base of the ice sheet. We performed a high resolution survey of such a site near Europe's Concordia station in East Antarctica, using a multi instrument aircraft.

Description: Effects of stratified active layers on high-altitude permafrost warming: a case study on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau Xicai Pan, Yanping Li, Qihao Yu, Xiaogang Shi, Daqing Yang, and Kurt Roth The Cryosphere, 10, 1591-1603, doi:10.5194/tc-10-1591-2016, 2016 Using a 9-year dataset in conjunction with a process-based model, we verify that the common assumption of a considerably smaller thermal conductivity in the thawed season than the frozen season is not valid at a site with a stratified active layer on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP). The unique hydraulic and thermal mechanism in the active layer challenges the concept of thermal offset used in conceptual permafrost models and hints at the reason for rapid permafrost warming on the QTP.

Description: Simultaneous solution for mass trends on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet The Cryosphere, 9, 805-819, 2015 Author(s): N. Schoen, A. Zammit-Mangion, J. C. Rougier, T. Flament, F. Rémy, S. Luthcke, and J. L. Bamber The Antarctic Ice Sheet is the largest potential source of future sea-level rise. Mass loss has been increasing over the last 2 decades for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) but with significant discrepancies between estimates, especially for the Antarctic Peninsula. Most of these estimates utilise geophysical models to explicitly correct the observations for (unobserved) processes. Systematic errors in these models introduce biases in the results which are difficult to quantify. In this study, we provide a statistically rigorous error-bounded trend estimate of ice mass loss over the WAIS from 2003 to 2009 which is almost entirely data driven. Using altimetry, gravimetry, and GPS data in a hierarchical Bayesian framework, we derive spatial fields for ice mass change, surface mass balance, and glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) without relying explicitly on forward models. The approach we use separates mass and height change contributions from different processes, reproducing spatial features found in, for example, regional climate and GIA forward models, and provides an independent estimate which can be used to validate and test the models. In addition, spatial error estimates are derived for each field. The mass loss estimates we obtain are smaller than some recent results, with a time-averaged mean rate of −76 ± 15 Gt yr −1 for the WAIS and Antarctic Peninsula, including the major Antarctic islands. The GIA estimate compares well with results obtained from recent forward models (IJ05-R2) and inverse methods (AGE-1). The Bayesian framework is sufficiently flexible that it can, eventually, be used for the whole of Antarctica, be adapted for other ice sheets and utilise data from other sources such as ice cores, accumulation radar data, and other measurements that contain information about any of the processes that are solved for.

Description: A process-based approach to estimate point snow instability The Cryosphere, 9, 837-847, 2015 Author(s): B. Reuter, J. Schweizer, and A. van Herwijnen Snow instability data provide information about the mechanical state of the snow cover and are essential for forecasting snow avalanches. So far, direct observations of instability (recent avalanches, shooting cracks or whumpf sounds) are complemented with field tests such as the rutschblock test, since no measurement method for instability exists. We propose a new approach based on snow mechanical properties derived from the snow micro-penetrometer that takes into account the two essential processes during dry-snow avalanche release: failure initiation and crack propagation. To estimate the propensity of failure initiation we define a stress-based failure criterion, whereas the propensity of crack propagation is described by the critical cut length as obtained with a propagation saw test. The input parameters include layer thickness, snow density, effective elastic modulus, strength and specific fracture energy of the weak layer – all derived from the penetration-force signal acquired with the snow micro-penetrometer. Both instability measures were validated with independent field data and correlated well with results from field tests. Comparisons with observed signs of instability clearly indicated that a snowpack is only prone to avalanche if the two separate conditions for failure initiation and crack propagation are fulfilled. To our knowledge, this is the first time that an objective method for estimating snow instability has been proposed. The approach can either be used directly based on field measurements with the snow micro-penetrometer, or be implemented in numerical snow cover models. With an objective measure of instability at hand, the problem of spatial variations of instability and its causes can now be tackled.

Description: How do icebergs affect the Greenland ice sheet under pre-industrial conditions? – a model study with a fully coupled ice-sheet–climate model The Cryosphere, 9, 821-835, 2015 Author(s): M. Bügelmayer, D. M. Roche, and H. Renssen Icebergs have a potential impact on climate since they release freshwater over a widespread area and cool the ocean due to the take-up of latent heat. Yet, so far, icebergs have never been modelled using an ice-sheet model coupled to a global climate model. Thus, in climate models their impact on climate has been restricted to the ocean. In this study, we investigate the effect of icebergs on the climate of the mid- to high latitudes and the Greenland ice sheet itself within a fully coupled ice-sheet (GRenoble model for Ice Shelves and Land Ice, or GRISLI)–earth-system ( i LOVECLIM) model set-up under pre-industrial climate conditions. This set-up enables us to dynamically compute the calving sites as well as the ice discharge and to close the water cycle between the climate and the cryosphere model components. Further, we analyse the different impact of moving icebergs compared to releasing the ice discharge at the calving sites directly. We performed a suite of sensitivity experiments to investigate the individual role of the different factors that influence the impact of the ice release on the ocean: release of ice discharge as icebergs versus as freshwater fluxes, and freshening and latent heat effects. We find that icebergs enhance the sea-ice thickness around Greenland, thereby cooling the atmosphere and increasing the Greenland ice sheet's height. Melting the ice discharge directly at the calving sites, thereby cooling and freshening the ocean locally, results in a similar ice-sheet configuration and climate as the simulation where icebergs are explicitly modelled. Yet, the simulation where the ice discharge is released into the ocean at the calving sites while taking up the latent heat homogeneously underestimates the cooling effect close to the ice-sheet margin and overestimates it further away, thereby causing a reduced ice-sheet thickness in southern Greenland. We conclude that in our fully coupled atmosphere–ocean–cryosphere model set-up the spatial distribution of the take-up of latent heat related to iceberg melting has a bigger impact on the climate than the input of the iceberg's meltwater. Moreover, we find that icebergs affect the ice sheet's geometry even under pre-industrial equilibrium conditions due to their enhancing effect on sea ice, which causes a colder prevailing climate.

Description: Simulating the Antarctic ice sheet in the late-Pliocene warm period: PLISMIP-ANT, an ice-sheet model intercomparison project The Cryosphere, 9, 881-903, 2015 Author(s): B. de Boer, A. M. Dolan, J. Bernales, E. Gasson, H. Goelzer, N. R. Golledge, J. Sutter, P. Huybrechts, G. Lohmann, I. Rogozhina, A. Abe-Ouchi, F. Saito, and R. S. W. van de Wal In the context of future climate change, understanding the nature and behaviour of ice sheets during warm intervals in Earth history is of fundamental importance. The late Pliocene warm period (also known as the PRISM interval: 3.264 to 3.025 million years before present) can serve as a potential analogue for projected future climates. Although Pliocene ice locations and extents are still poorly constrained, a significant contribution to sea-level rise should be expected from both the Greenland ice sheet and the West and East Antarctic ice sheets based on palaeo sea-level reconstructions. Here, we present results from simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet by means of an international Pliocene Ice Sheet Modeling Intercomparison Project (PLISMIP-ANT). For the experiments, ice-sheet models including the shallow ice and shelf approximations have been used to simulate the complete Antarctic domain (including grounded and floating ice). We compare the performance of six existing numerical ice-sheet models in simulating modern control and Pliocene ice sheets by a suite of five sensitivity experiments. We include an overview of the different ice-sheet models used and how specific model configurations influence the resulting Pliocene Antarctic ice sheet. The six ice-sheet models simulate a comparable present-day ice sheet, considering the models are set up with their own parameter settings. For the Pliocene, the results demonstrate the difficulty of all six models used here to simulate a significant retreat or re-advance of the East Antarctic ice grounding line, which is thought to have happened during the Pliocene for the Wilkes and Aurora basins. The specific sea-level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet at this point cannot be conclusively determined, whereas improved grounding line physics could be essential for a correct representation of the migration of the grounding-line of the Antarctic ice sheet during the Pliocene.

Description: Climate regime of Asian glaciers revealed by GAMDAM glacier inventory The Cryosphere, 9, 865-880, 2015 Author(s): A. Sakai, T. Nuimura, K. Fujita, S. Takenaka, H. Nagai, and D. Lamsal Among meteorological elements, precipitation has a large spatial variability and less observation, particularly in high-mountain Asia, although precipitation in mountains is an important parameter for hydrological circulation. We estimated precipitation contributing to glacier mass at the median elevation of glaciers, which is presumed to be at equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) such that mass balance is zero at that elevation, by tuning adjustment parameters of precipitation. We also made comparisons between the median elevation of glaciers, including the effect of drifting snow and avalanche, and eliminated those local effects. Then, we could obtain the median elevation of glaciers depending only on climate to estimate glacier surface precipitation. The calculated precipitation contributing to glacier mass can elucidate that glaciers in arid high-mountain Asia receive less precipitation, while much precipitation makes a greater contribution to glacier mass in the Hindu Kush, the Himalayas, and the Hengduan Shan due to not only direct precipitation amount but also avalanche nourishment. We classified glaciers in high-mountain Asia into summer-accumulation type and winter-accumulation type using the summer-accumulation ratio and confirmed that summer-accumulation-type glaciers have a higher sensitivity than winter-accumulation-type glaciers.

Description: The GAMDAM glacier inventory: a quality-controlled inventory of Asian glaciers The Cryosphere, 9, 849-864, 2015 Author(s): T. Nuimura, A. Sakai, K. Taniguchi, H. Nagai, D. Lamsal, S. Tsutaki, A. Kozawa, Y. Hoshina, S. Takenaka, S. Omiya, K. Tsunematsu, P. Tshering, and K. Fujita We present a new glacier inventory for high-mountain Asia named "Glacier Area Mapping for Discharge from the Asian Mountains" (GAMDAM). Glacier outlines were delineated manually using 356 Landsat ETM+ scenes in 226 path-row sets from the period 1999–2003, in conjunction with a digital elevation model (DEM) and high-resolution Google Earth TM imagery. Geolocations are largely consistent between the Landsat imagery and DEM due to systematic radiometric and geometric corrections made by the United States Geological Survey. We performed repeated delineation tests and peer review of glacier outlines in order to maintain the consistency and quality of the inventory. Our GAMDAM glacier inventory (GGI) includes 87 084 glaciers covering a total area of 91 263 ± 13 689 km 2 throughout high-mountain Asia. In the Hindu Kush–Himalaya range, the total glacier area in our inventory is 93% that of the ICIMOD (International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development) inventory. Discrepancies between the two regional data sets are due mainly to the effects of glacier shading. In contrast, our inventory represents significantly less surface area (−24%) than the recent global Randolph Glacier Inventory, version 4.0 (RGI), which includes 119 863 ± 9201 km 2 for the entirety of high Asian mountains. Likely causes of this disparity include headwall definition, effects of exclusion of shaded glacier areas, glacier recession since the 1970s, and inclusion of seasonal snow cover in the source data of the RGI, although it is difficult to evaluate such effects quantitatively. Further rigorous peer review of GGI will both improve the quality of glacier inventory in high-mountain Asia and provide new opportunities to study Asian glaciers.

Description: Multi-modal albedo distributions in the ablation area of the southwestern Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere, 9, 905-923, 2015 Author(s): S. E. Moustafa, A. K. Rennermalm, L. C. Smith, M. A. Miller, J. R. Mioduszewski, L. S. Koenig, M. G. Hom, and C. A. Shuman Surface albedo is a key variable controlling solar radiation absorbed at the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) surface and, thus, meltwater production. Recent decline in surface albedo over the GrIS has been linked to enhanced snow grain metamorphic rates, earlier snowmelt, and amplified melt–albedo feedback from atmospheric warming. However, the importance of distinct surface types on ablation area albedo and meltwater production is still relatively unknown. In this study, we analyze albedo and ablation rates using in situ and remotely sensed data. Observations include (1) a new high-quality in situ spectral albedo data set collected with an Analytical Spectral Devices Inc. spectroradiometer measuring at 325–1075 nm along a 1.25 km transect during 3 days in June 2013; (2) broadband albedo at two automatic weather stations; and (3) daily MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) albedo (MOD10A1) between 31 May and 30 August 2012 and 2013. We find that seasonal ablation area albedos in 2013 have a bimodal distribution, with snow and ice facies characterizing the two peaks. Our results show that a shift from a distribution dominated by high to low albedos corresponds to an observed melt rate increase of 51.5% (between 10–14 July and 20–24 July 2013). In contrast, melt rate variability caused by albedo changes before and after this shift was much lower and varied between ~10 and 30% in the melting season. Ablation area albedos in 2012 exhibited a more complex multimodal distribution, reflecting a transition from light to dark-dominated surface, as well as sensitivity to the so called "dark-band" region in southwest Greenland. In addition to a darkening surface from ice crystal growth, our findings demonstrate that seasonal changes in GrIS ablation area albedos are controlled by changes in the fractional coverage of snow, bare ice, and impurity-rich surface types. Thus, seasonal variability in ablation area albedos appears to be regulated primarily as a function of bare ice expansion at the expense of snow, surface meltwater ponding, and melting of outcropped ice layers enriched with mineral materials, enabling dust and impurities to accumulate. As climate change continues in the Arctic region, understanding the seasonal evolution of ice sheet surface types in Greenland's ablation area is critical to improve projections of mass loss contributions to sea level rise.

Description: Future climate and surface mass balance of Svalbard glaciers in an RCP8.5 climate scenario: a study with the regional climate model MAR forced by MIROC5 The Cryosphere, 9, 945-956, 2015 Author(s): C. Lang, X. Fettweis, and M. Erpicum We have performed a future projection of the climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of Svalbard with the MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) regional climate model forced by MIROC5 (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate), following the RCP8.5 scenario at a spatial resolution of 10 km. MAR predicts a similar evolution of increasing surface melt everywhere in Svalbard followed by a sudden acceleration of melt around 2050, with a larger melt increase in the south compared to the north of the archipelago. This melt acceleration around 2050 is mainly driven by the albedo–melt feedback associated with the expansion of the ablation/bare ice zone. This effect is dampened in part as the solar radiation itself is projected to decrease due to a cloudiness increase. The near-surface temperature is projected to increase more in winter than in summer as the temperature is already close to 0 °C in summer. The model also projects a stronger winter west-to-east temperature gradient, related to the large decrease of sea ice cover around Svalbard. By 2085, SMB is projected to become negative over all of Svalbard's glaciated regions, leading to the rapid degradation of the firn layer.

Description: Evolution of surface velocities and ice discharge of Larsen B outlet glaciers from 1995 to 2013 The Cryosphere, 9, 957-969, 2015 Author(s): J. Wuite, H. Rott, M. Hetzenecker, D. Floricioiu, J. De Rydt, G. H. Gudmundsson, T. Nagler, and M. Kern We use repeat-pass SAR data to produce detailed maps of surface motion covering the glaciers draining into the former Larsen B Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula, for different epochs between 1995 and 2013. We combine the velocity maps with estimates of ice thickness to analyze fluctuations of ice discharge. The collapse of the central and northern sections of the ice shelf in 2002 led to a near-immediate acceleration of tributary glaciers as well as of the remnant ice shelf in Scar Inlet. Velocities of most of the glaciers discharging directly into the ocean remain to date well above the velocities of the pre-collapse period. The response of individual glaciers differs and velocities show significant temporal fluctuations, implying major variations in ice discharge as well. Due to reduced velocity and ice thickness the ice discharge of Crane Glacier decreased from 5.02 Gt a −1 in 2007 to 1.72 Gt a −1 in 2013, whereas Hektoria and Green glaciers continue to show large temporal fluctuations in response to successive stages of frontal retreat. The velocity on Scar Inlet ice shelf increased 2–3-fold since 1995, with the largest increase in the first years after the break-up of the main section of Larsen B. Flask and Leppard glaciers, the largest tributaries to Scar Inlet ice shelf, accelerated. In 2013 their discharge was 38% and 46% higher than in 1995.

Description: Climatic signals from 76 shallow firn cores in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica The Cryosphere, 9, 925-944, 2015 Author(s): S. Altnau, E. Schlosser, E. Isaksson, and D. Divine The spatial and temporal distribution of surface mass balance (SMB) and δ 18 O were investigated in the first comprehensive study of a set of 76 firn cores retrieved by various expeditions during the past 3 decades in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica. The large number of cores was used to calculate stacked records of SMB and δ 18 O, which considerably increased the signal-to-noise ratio compared to earlier studies and facilitated the detection of climatic signals. Considerable differences between cores from the interior plateau and the coastal cores were found. The δ 18 O of both the plateau and the ice shelf cores exhibit a slight positive trend over the second half of the 20th century. In the corresponding period, the SMB has a negative trend in the ice shelf cores, but increases on the plateau. Comparison with meteorological data from Neumayer Station revealed that for the ice shelf regions, atmospheric dynamic effects are more important than thermodynamics while on the plateau; the temporal variations of SMB and δ 18 O occur mostly in parallel, and thus can be explained by thermodynamic effects. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) has exhibited a positive trend since the mid-1960s, which is assumed to lead to a cooling of East Antarctica. This is not confirmed by the firn core data in our data set. Changes in the atmospheric circulation that result in a changed seasonal distribution of precipitation/accumulation could partly explain the observed features in the ice shelf cores.

Description: Numerical simulation of extreme snowmelt observed at the SIGMA-A site, northwest Greenland, during summer 2012 The Cryosphere, 9, 971-988, 2015 Author(s): M. Niwano, T. Aoki, S. Matoba, S. Yamaguchi, T. Tanikawa, K. Kuchiki, and H. Motoyama The surface energy balance (SEB) from 30 June to 14 July 2012 at site SIGMA (Snow Impurity and Glacial Microbe effects on abrupt warming in the Arctic)-A, (78°03' N, 67°38' W; 1490 m a.s.l.) on the northwest Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) was investigated by using in situ atmospheric and snow measurements as well as numerical modeling with a one-dimensional multi-layered physical snowpack model called SMAP (Snow Metamorphism and Albedo Process). At SIGMA-A, remarkable near-surface snowmelt and continuous heavy rainfall (accumulated precipitation between 10 and 14 July was estimated to be 100 mm) were observed after 10 July 2012. Application of the SMAP model to the GrIS snowpack was evaluated based on the snow temperature profile, snow surface temperature, surface snow grain size, and shortwave albedo, all of which the model simulated reasonably well. Above all, the fact that the SMAP model successfully reproduced frequently observed rapid increases in snow albedo under cloudy conditions highlights the advantage of the physically based snow albedo model (PBSAM) incorporated in the SMAP model. Using such data and model, we estimated the SEB at SIGMA-A from 30 June to 14 July 2012. Radiation-related fluxes were obtained from in situ measurements, whereas other fluxes were calculated with the SMAP model. By examining the components of the SEB, we determined that low-level clouds accompanied by a significant temperature increase played an important role in the melt event observed at SIGMA-A. These conditions induced a remarkable surface heating via cloud radiative forcing in the polar region.

Description: Modelling the impact of submarine frontal melting and ice mélange on glacier dynamics The Cryosphere, 9, 989-1003, 2015 Author(s): J. Krug, G. Durand, O. Gagliardini, and J. Weiss Submarine melting of the calving face of tidewater glaciers and the mechanical back force applied by the ice mélange layer are two mechanisms generally proposed to explain seasonal variations at the calving front of tidewater glaciers. However, the way these processes affect the calving rate and glacier dynamics remains uncertain. In this study, we used a finite element-based model that solves the full Stokes equations to simulate the impact of these forcings on two-dimensional theoretical flow line glacier configurations. The model, which includes calving processes, suggests that frontal melting affects the position of the terminus only slightly (less than a few hundred metres) and does not affect the multiannual glacier mass balance at all. However, the ice mélange has a greater impact on the advance and retreat cycles of the glacier front (more than several kilometres) and its consequences for the mass balance are not completely negligible, stressing the need for better characterization of forcing properties. We also show that ice mélange forcing against the calving face can mechanically prevent crevasse propagation at sea level and hence prevent calving. Results also reveal different behaviours in grounded and floating glaciers: in the case of a floating extension, the strongest forcings can disrupt the glacier equilibrium by modifying its buttressing and ice flux at the grounding line.

Description: Oceanic and atmospheric forcing of Larsen C Ice-Shelf thinning The Cryosphere, 9, 1005-1024, 2015 Author(s): P. R. Holland, A. Brisbourne, H. F. J. Corr, D. McGrath, K. Purdon, J. Paden, H. A. Fricker, F. S. Paolo, and A. H. Fleming The catastrophic collapses of Larsen A and B ice shelves on the eastern Antarctic Peninsula have caused their tributary glaciers to accelerate, contributing to sea-level rise and freshening the Antarctic Bottom Water formed nearby. The surface of Larsen C Ice Shelf (LCIS), the largest ice shelf on the peninsula, is lowering. This could be caused by unbalanced ocean melting (ice loss) or enhanced firn melting and compaction (englacial air loss). Using a novel method to analyse eight radar surveys, this study derives separate estimates of ice and air thickness changes during a 15-year period. The uncertainties are considerable, but the primary estimate is that the surveyed lowering (0.066 ± 0.017 m yr −1 ) is caused by both ice loss (0.28 ± 0.18 m yr −1 ) and firn-air loss (0.037 ± 0.026 m yr −1 ). The ice loss is much larger than the air loss, but both contribute approximately equally to the lowering because the ice is floating. The ice loss could be explained by high basal melting and/or ice divergence, and the air loss by low surface accumulation or high surface melting and/or compaction. The primary estimate therefore requires that at least two forcings caused the surveyed lowering. Mechanisms are discussed by which LCIS stability could be compromised in the future. The most rapid pathways to collapse are offered by the ungrounding of LCIS from Bawden Ice Rise or ice-front retreat past a "compressive arch" in strain rates. Recent evidence suggests that either mechanism could pose an imminent risk.

Description: A model study of Abrahamsenbreen, a surging glacier in northern Spitsbergen The Cryosphere, 9, 767-779, 2015 Author(s): J. Oerlemans and W. J. J. van Pelt The climate sensitivity of Abrahamsenbreen, a 20 km long surge-type glacier in northern Spitsbergen, is studied with a simple glacier model. A scheme to describe the surges is included, which makes it possible to account for the effect of surges on the total mass budget of the glacier. A climate reconstruction back to AD 1300, based on ice-core data from Lomonosovfonna and climate records from Longyearbyen, is used to drive the model. The model is calibrated by requesting that it produce the correct Little Ice Age maximum glacier length and simulate the observed magnitude of the 1978 surge. Abrahamsenbreen is strongly out of balance with the current climate. If climatic conditions remain as they were for the period 1989–2010, the glacier will ultimately shrink to a length of about 4 km (but this will take hundreds of years). For a climate change scenario involving a 2 m year −1 rise of the equilibrium line from now onwards, we predict that in the year 2100 Abrahamsenbreen will be about 12 km long. The main effect of a surge is to lower the mean surface elevation and thereby to increase the ablation area, causing a negative perturbation of the mass budget. We found that the occurrence of surges leads to a faster retreat of the glacier in a warming climate. Because of the very small bed slope, Abrahamsenbreen is sensitive to small perturbations in the equilibrium-line altitude. If the equilibrium line were lowered by only 160 m, the glacier would steadily grow into Woodfjorddalen until, after 2000 years, it would reach Woodfjord and calving would slow down the advance. The bed topography of Abrahamsenbreen is not known and was therefore inferred from the slope and length of the glacier. The value of the plasticity parameter needed to do this was varied by +20 and −20%. After recalibration the same climate change experiments were performed, showing that a thinner glacier (higher bedrock in this case) in a warming climate retreats somewhat faster.

Description: Warming permafrost and active layer variability at Cime Bianche, Western European Alps The Cryosphere, 9, 647-661, 2015 Author(s): P. Pogliotti, M. Guglielmin, E. Cremonese, U. Morra di Cella, G. Filippa, C. Pellet, and C. Hauck The objective of this paper is to provide a first synthesis on the state and recent evolution of permafrost at the monitoring site of Cime Bianche (3100 m a.s.l.) on the Italian side of the Western Alps. The analysis is based on 7 years of ground temperature observations in two boreholes and seven surface points. The analysis aims to quantify the spatial and temporal variability of ground surface temperature in relation to snow cover, the small-scale spatial variability of the active layer thickness and current temperature trends in deep permafrost. Results show that the heterogeneity of snow cover thickness, both in space and time, is the main factor controlling ground surface temperatures and leads to a mean range of spatial variability (2.5 ± 0.1 °C) which far exceeds the mean range of observed inter-annual variability (1.6 ± 0.1 °C). The active layer thickness measured in two boreholes at a distance of 30 m shows a mean difference of 2.0 ± 0.1 m with the active layer of one borehole consistently deeper. As revealed by temperature analysis and geophysical soundings, such a difference is mainly driven by the ice/water content in the sub-surface and not by the snow cover regimes. The analysis of deep temperature time series reveals that permafrost is warming. The detected trends are statistically significant starting from a depth below 8 m with warming rates between 0.1 and 0.01 °C yr −1 .

Description: Quantifying meltwater refreezing along a transect of sites on the Greenland ice sheet The Cryosphere, 9, 691-701, 2015 Author(s): C. Cox, N. Humphrey, and J. Harper On the Greenland ice sheet, a significant quantity of surface meltwater refreezes within the firn, creating uncertainty in surface mass balance estimates. This refreezing has the potential to buffer seasonal runoff to future increases in melting, but direct measurement of the process remains difficult. We present a method for quantifying refreezing at point locations using in situ firn temperature observations. A time series of sub-hourly firn temperature profiles were collected over the course of two melt seasons from 2007 to 2009 along a transect of 11 sites in the accumulation zone of Greenland. Seasonal changes in temperature profiles combined with heat flux estimates based on high-temporal-resolution temperature gradients enable us to isolate the heat released by refreezing using conservation of energy. Our method is verified from winter data when no refreezing takes place, and uncertainty is estimated using a Monte Carlo technique. While we limit our method to a subsection of firn between depths of 1 and 10 m, our refreezing estimates appear to differ significantly from model-based estimates. Furthermore, results indicate that a significant amount of refreezing takes place at depths greater than 1 m and that lateral migration of meltwater significantly complicates the relationship between total surface melt and total refreezing.

Description: Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in Arctic ground ice The Cryosphere, 9, 737-752, 2015 Author(s): M. Fritz, T. Opel, G. Tanski, U. Herzschuh, H. Meyer, A. Eulenburg, and H. Lantuit Thermal permafrost degradation and coastal erosion in the Arctic remobilize substantial amounts of organic carbon (OC) and nutrients which have accumulated in late Pleistocene and Holocene unconsolidated deposits. Permafrost vulnerability to thaw subsidence, collapsing coastlines and irreversible landscape change are largely due to the presence of large amounts of massive ground ice such as ice wedges. However, ground ice has not, until now, been considered to be a source of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and other elements which are important for ecosystems and carbon cycling. Here we show, using biogeochemical data from a large number of different ice bodies throughout the Arctic, that ice wedges have the greatest potential for DOC storage, with a maximum of 28.6 mg L −1 (mean: 9.6 mg L −1 ). Variation in DOC concentration is positively correlated with and explained by the concentrations and relative amounts of typically terrestrial cations such as Mg 2+ and K + . DOC sequestration into ground ice was more effective during the late Pleistocene than during the Holocene, which can be explained by rapid sediment and OC accumulation, the prevalence of more easily degradable vegetation and immediate incorporation into permafrost. We assume that pristine snowmelt is able to leach considerable amounts of well-preserved and highly bioavailable DOC as well as other elements from surface sediments, which are rapidly frozen and stored in ground ice, especially in ice wedges, even before further degradation. We found that ice wedges in the Yedoma region represent a significant DOC (45.2 Tg) and DIC (33.6 Tg) pool in permafrost areas and a freshwater reservoir of 4200 km 2 . This study underlines the need to discriminate between particulate OC and DOC to assess the availability and vulnerability of the permafrost carbon pool for ecosystems and climate feedback upon mobilization.