ALBERT

Description: Opportunistic observations captured the coupled estuarine-shelf interactions as the Alabama coastal region transitioned from a period of low to flood river discharge conditions. The period of focus was February 18 to April 10, 2011 during which time a combination of in-situ (water level, salinity and velocity) and remote sensing (ocean color) data provided information on the estuarine and shelf environment prior to, during, and post a major river discharge event that captured a relatively rare spatially synoptic view of the structural evolution of a discharge plume in response to changing forcing conditions. The discharge event generated major changes in the hydrographic conditions and forcing responses within the estuary and on the shelf. The resulting surface advected plume was observed for approximately two weeks, during which time the observed differences in shelf circulation were directly linked to the discharge plume and a plume bulge with anticyclonic circulation was identified at times throughout the event. The plume was exposed to a range of wind conditions which modulated the surface structure: downwelling winds elongated the plume structure and upwelling winds reversed and widened the plume. The influence of wind forcing, even during very low wind (〈3.75 m s −1 ) and large outflow (∼7,000 m 3 s −1 ) conditions, was apparent, as a result of the shallow and wide characteristics of the plume. Anticyclonic bulge regions have only been identified in a few systems and the occurrence of this feature on the Alabama shelf has significant implications on transport and fate of river discharge in this region. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Five quantitative methodologies (metrics) that may be used to assess the skill of sea ice models against a control field are analyzed. The methodologies are Absolute Deviation, Root Mean Square Deviation, Mean Displacement, Hausdorff Distance, and Modified Hausdorff Distance. The methodologies are employed to quantify similarity between spatial distribution of the simulated and control scalar fields providing measures of model performance. To analyze their response to dissimilarities in 2-dimensional fields (contours), the metrics undergo sensitivity tests (scale, rotation, translation, and noise). Furthermore, in order to assess their ability to quantify resemblance of 3-dimensional fields the metrics are subjected to sensitivity tests where tested fields have continuous random spatial patterns inside the contours. The Modified Hausdorff Distance approach demonstrates the best response to tested differences, with the other methods limited by weak responses to scale and translation. Both Hausdorff Distance and Modifed Hausdorff Distance metrics are robust to noise, as opposed to the other methods. The metrics are then employed in realistic cases that validate sea ice concentration fields from numerical models and sea ice mean outlook against control data and observations. The Modified Hausdorff Distance method again exhibits high skill in quantifying similarity between both 2-dimensional (ice contour) and 3-dimensional (ice concentration) sea ice fields. The study demonstrates that the Modified Hausdorff Distance is a mathematically tractable and efficient method for model skill assessment and comparison providing effective and objective evaluation of both 2-dimensional and 3-dimensional sea ice characteristics across data sets. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The Extended Ellett Line (EEL) hydrographic section extends from Scotland to Iceland crossing the Rockall Trough, Hatton-Rockall Basin and Iceland Basin. With 61 full-depth stations at a horizontal resolution of 10 to 50 km, the EEL samples the upper limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation flowing across the Iceland-Scotland Ridge into the Nordic Seas. The Rockall Trough has been sampled nearly four times per year from 1975 to 1996, and the full section annually since 1996. The EEL is an exceptionally long timeseries of deep-ocean temperatures and salinities. This study extends prior work in the Rockall Trough, and examines for the first time 18 year records in the Iceland and Hatton-Rockall Basins. We quantify errors in the timeseries from two sources: observational errors and aliasing. The data quality and annual sampling are suitable for observing interannual to decadal variability because the variability exceeds our error estimates. The upper waters of all 3 basins are cooler/fresher from 1997 to 2001, warmer/more saline 2001 to 2006, and cooler/fresher from 2006 to 2014. A reference level for geostrophic shear is developed heuristically and by comparison with sea-surface altimetry. The mean northward transport in the upper waters is 6.7±3.7 Sv and there is a 6.1±2.5 Sv southward flow below the thermocline. Although the magnitude of the Iceland Basin overturning circulation (4.3±1.9 Sv) is greater than in the Rockall Trough (3.0±3.7 Sv), the variability is greater in the Rockall Trough. We discuss the results in the context of our understanding of drivers of variability. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: In the oligotrophic waters to the east of Madagascar a large phytoplankton bloom is found to occur in late austral summer. This bloom is composed of nitrogen fixers and can cover up to ∼1% of the world's ocean surface area. Satellite observations show that its spatial structure is closely tied to the underlying mesoscale eddy field in the region. The causes of the bloom and its temporal behavior (timing of its initiation and termination) and spatial variability are poorly understood, in part due to a lack of in situ observations. Here an eddy resolving 1/12˚ resolution ocean general circulation model and Lagrangian particle tracking are used to examine the hypothesis that iron from sediments around Madagascar could be advected east by the mesoscale eddy field to fertilize the bloom, and that variability in advection could explain the significant interannual variability in the spatial extent of the bloom. The model results suggest that this is indeed possible and furthermore imply that the bloom could be triggered by warming of the mixed layer, leading to optimal conditions for nitrogen fixers to grow, while its termination could be due to iron exhaustion. It is found that advection of Madagascan iron could re-supply the bloom region with this micronutrient in the period between the termination of one bloom and the initiation of the next in the following year. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: This study evaluates capability of the Argo observation network for monitoring ocean variation, especially for eddy-scale variation, by using an optimum interpolation (OI) procedure. Sea surface dynamic height anomalies (DHAs) are derived from Argo temperature and salinity profile data, and DHA fields are obtained by the OI based on the space-time correlation scales estimated from along-track sea level anomaly (SLA) data by satellite altimetry. The DHA fields are compared with the SLA fields derived from the same OI applied to the along-track SLA data. The results show that the equatorial Kelvin waves and tropical instability waves are well captured by Argo floats. Eddies are also monitored effectively in the subtropical western North Pacific. The OI results of DHA do not agree well with those of SLA in the high latitudes. A simple test of the space-time OI analysis shows that more than six data in the e-folding domain, where the correlation coefficient of ocean variation is above e −1 , are required for the reliable analysis with 99% confidence level. Argo floats provide sufficient number of observations for the reliable analysis in the low latitudes and some areas in the North Pacific. Two to three times more Argo data would be required in most of mid-latitudes and much more in high latitudes for capturing eddy-scale variation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Once oil plumes such as those originating from underwater blowouts reach the ocean mixed layer (OML), their near-surface dispersion is influenced heavily by wind and wave-generated Langmuir turbulence. In this study, the complex oil spill dispersion process is modeled using large-eddy simulation (LES). The mean plume dispersion is characterized by performing statistical analysis of the resulting fields from the LES data. Although the instantaneous oil concentration exhibits high intermittency with complex spatial patterns such as Langmuir-induced striations, it is found that the time-averaged oil distribution can still be described quite well by smooth Gaussian-type plumes. LES results show that the competition between droplet rise velocity and vertical turbulent diffusion due to Langmuir turbulence is crucial in determining both the dilution rate and overall direction of transport of oil plumes in the OML. The smoothness of the mean plume makes it feasible to aim at modeling the oil dispersion using Reynolds-averaged type formulations, such as the K-profile parameterization (KPP) with sufficient vertical resolution to capture vertical profiles in the OML. Using LES data, we evaluate the eddy viscosity and eddy diffusivity following the KPP framework. We assess the performance of previous KPP models for pure shear turbulence and Langmuir turbulence by comparing them with the LES data. Based on the assessment a modified KPP model is proposed, which shows improved overall agreement with the LES results for both the eddy viscosity and the eddy diffusivity of the oil dispersion under a variety of flow conditions and droplet sizes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The region of the Southern Ocean that encompasses the Subantarctic Front (SAF) to the north and the Polar Front (PF) to the south contains most of the transport of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Here, skewness of sea level anomaly (SLA) from 1992-2013 is coupled with a meandering Gaussian jet model to estimate the mean position, meridional width, and the percent variance that each front contributes to total SLA variability. The SAF and PF have comparable widths (85km) in the circumpolar average, but their widths differ significantly in the East Pacific Basin (85km and 60km respectively). Interannual variability in the positions of the SAF and PF are also estimated using annual subsets of the SLA data from 1993 to 2012. The PF position has enhanced variability near strong topographic features such as the Kerguelen Plateau, the Campbell Plateau east of New Zealand, and downstream of Drake Passage. Neither the SAF nor the PF showed a robust meridional trend over the 20-year period. The Southern Annular Mode was significantly correlated with basin-averaged SAF and PF positions in the East Pacific and with the PF south of Australia. A correlation between the PF and the basin-scale wind stress curl anomaly was also found in the Western extratropical Pacific but not in other basins. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The sensitivity and variability of spatial tsunami inundation footprints in coastal cities and towns due to a mega-thrust subduction earthquake in the Tohoku region of Japan are investigated by considering different fault geometry and slip distributions. Stochastic tsunami scenarios are generated based on the spectral analysis and synthesis method with regards to an inverted source model. To assess spatial inundation processes accurately, tsunami modeling is conducted using bathymetry and elevation data with 50-m grid resolutions. Using the developed methodology for assessing variability of tsunami hazard estimates, stochastic inundation depth maps can be generated for local coastal communities. These maps are important for improving disaster preparedness by understanding the consequences of different situations/conditions, and by communicating uncertainty associated with hazard predictions. The analysis indicates that the sensitivity of inundation areas to the geometrical parameters (i.e. top-edge depth, strike, and dip) depends on the tsunami source characteristics and the site location, and is therefore complex and highly nonlinear. The variability assessment of inundation footprints indicates significant influence of slip distributions. In particular, topographical features of the region, such as ria coast and near-shore plain, have major influence on the tsunami inundation footprints. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Siberian river water is a first-order contribution to the Arctic freshwater budget, with the Ob, Yenisey, and Lena supplying nearly half of the total surface freshwater flux. However, few details are known regarding where, when and how the freshwater transverses the vast Siberian shelf seas. This paper investigates the mechanism, variability and pathways of the fresh Kara Sea outflow through Vilkitsky Strait towards the Laptev Sea. We utilize a high-resolution ocean model and recent shipboard observations to characterize the freshwater-laden Vilkitsky Strait Current (VSC), and shed new light on the little-studied region between the Kara and Laptev Seas, characterized by harsh ice conditions, contrasting water masses, straits and a large submarine canyon. The VSC is 10-20 km wide, surface-intensified, and varies seasonally (maximum from August-March) and interannually. Average freshwater (volume) transport is 500 ± 120 km 3 a −1 (0.53 ± 0.08 Sv), with a baroclinic flow contribution of 50-90%. Interannual transport variability is explained by a storage-release mechanism, where blocking-favorable summer winds hamper the outflow and cause accumulation of freshwater in the Kara Sea. The year following a blocking event is characterized by enhanced transports driven by a baroclinic flow along the coast that is set up by increased freshwater volumes. Eventually, the VSC merges with a slope current and provides a major pathway for Eurasian river water towards the Western Arctic along the Eurasian continental slope. Kara (and Laptev) Sea freshwater transport is not correlated with the Arctic Oscillation, but rather driven by regional summer pressure patterns. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Ice export from the vast Arctic Siberian shelf is calculated using δ 18 O values and salinity data for water samples collected during the International Siberian Shelf Study between August and September 2008 (ISSS-08). The samples represent a wide range of salinities and δ 18 O values due to river water inputs and sea ice removal. We estimate the fraction of water that has been removed as ice by interpreting observed δ 18 O values and salinities as a result of mixing between river water and sea water end-members as well as to fractional ice removal. This method does not assume an ice end-member of fixed composition, which is especially important when applied on samples with large differences in salinity. The results show that there is net transport of ice from both the Laptev and the Eastern Siberian Seas, and in total 3000 km³ of sea ice is exported from the shelf. The annual total export of ice from the entire region, calculated from the residence time of water on the shelf, is estimated to be 860 km 3 yr −1 . Thus, changes in ice production on the shelf may have great impact on sea ice export from the Arctic Ocean. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.