ALBERT

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Large-scale wildfires and windstorms are the most important disturbance agents for the Russian boreal forests. The paper presents an assessment of fire-related and wind-induced forest losses in the Ural region of Russia for 2000‒2014. The assessment is based on the use of Landsat images, Global Forest Change dataset (Hansen et al. in Science 342:850–853, 〈span〉2013〈/span〉. 〈span〉https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1244693〈/span〉) and other space imagery data. The total area of stand-replacement fires and windthrows in the Ural’s forests was estimated at 1.637 million ha, which is 1.56% of the total forest-covered area. The contribution of wildfires and windthrows is 96.4% and 3.6%, respectively. The highest frequency of large-scale wildfires was observed behind the Northern Ural ridge, where the fire scars of 2000‒2014 covered 10–14% of the forested area. The storm-related forest damage is significant only on the western part of the Ural. A few catastrophic wildfires and windthrows (with an area 〉 5000 ha) make up 35% of the entire damaged area. The number of wildfires, windthrows and their damaged area vary significantly from year to year. For 2000–2014, it is impossible to find a statistically significant trend of the fire- and storm-damaged area. The seasonal maximum of large-scale wildfires and windthrows was observed in July. Also, we identified the statistically significant relationships of fire- and wind-related forest damage with environmental variables. The occurrence of large-scale wildfires is related mainly to the species composition of forests, and also to the altitude, the mean annual precipitation and the population density. The spatial distribution of massive windthrows has a strong correlation with the species composition of forests, the mean annual precipitation and partially with the wind effect parameter.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉In the present study, a recently developed novel approach (Bender et al. in J Hydrol 514:123–130, 〈span〉2014〈/span〉) has been further extended to investigate the changes in the joint probabilities of extreme offshore and nearshore marine variables with time and to assess design the total water level (TWL) at the shoreline under the effects of climate change. The nonstationary generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution has been utilised to model the marginal distribution functions of marine variables (wave characteristics and sea levels), within a 40-year moving window. All parameters of the GEV were tested for statistically significant linear and polynomial trends over time, and best-fitted trends have been detected. Different copula functions were fitted at the 40-year moving windows, to model the dependence structure of extreme offshore significant wave heights and peak spectral periods, and of wave-induced sea levels on the shoreline and nearshore sea levels due to storm surges. The most appropriate bivariate models were then selected. Statistically significant polynomial trends were detected in the dependence parameters of the selected copulas, and time-dependent most likely bivariate events were extracted to be used in the estimation of the TWL at the shoreline. The methods of the present work were implemented in three selected Greek coastal areas in the Aegean Sea. The analysis revealed different variations in the most likely estimates of the offshore wave characteristics and nearshore storm surges in the three study areas, as well as in the time-dependent estimates of TWL at the shoreline. The approach combines nonstationarity and bivariate analysis, blends coastal and offshore marine features and finally provides non-trivial alterations in the response of coastal sea level dynamics to climate change signals, compared to former work on the subject. The methodology produces reasonable estimates of design quantities for coastal structures and boundary conditions for the assessment of flood hazard and risk in coastal areas.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Tornadoes are extreme manifestations of severe storms that occur around the world. In Mexico, the most affected region by the tornado phenomenon is the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB), a complex topographic region in the central part of the country with a large population density. This research work aims to investigate the role of the complex topography in the generation of instability conditions that favored the formation of two tornadoes almost in the same place (western TMVB) on August 7, 2012, and September 16, 2014. Numerical experiments with the WRF-ARW model were performed in order to obtain knowledge about several important weather conditions preceding each tornado event and to identify the role of the complex terrain in the generation of instability necessary for their formation. Notwithstanding this real complexity, similar patterns in instability parameters and meteorological variables were found for the two tornadoes. The complex terrain seems to be essential in the generation and increase in instability preceding each tornado event. This work is the first approach to understand the meteorological phenomena, in the complex topography of Mexico, which leads to the formation of tornadoes. Understanding natural hazards such as tornadoes represents a first phase in the process of disaster risk reduction.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Flood risk maps for the built environment can be obtained by integrating geo-spatial information on hazard, vulnerability and exposure. They provide precious support for strategic urban planning and decision-making. These maps, generated in a probabilistic framework, can consider various sources of uncertainty in the flood risk assessment such as the occurrence of extreme flooding events, future land use and land cover, characteristics of the buildings, and exposure to flooding. This paper investigates how these maps can be used in complicated urban context such as developing countries, where engineers are forced to work with scarce or little data. Specifically, a detailed investigation on the city of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, has been conducted. Although the city of Addis Ababa is undergoing extensive formal housing development, it is most likely that the informal settlements will continue to constitute a significant portion of urban housing landscape in the years to come. Recent research findings and field work from a large project (FP7-CLUVA) are employed in order to provide a quantified basis for decision-making between alternative adaptation strategies for informal buildings in Addis Ababa. Risk maps, obtained by up-scaling more accurate risk assessment results at neighborhood level, are adopted for risk zoning of the urban residential texture within the city. This provides risk-based criteria for both identifying suitable flood adaptation strategies and prioritizing between viable risk mitigation measures.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉The water-runoff in the plateau mountainous areas is mainly contributed by precipitation, snowmelt and glacial meltwater; the different runoff components result from different mechanism of runoff generation. Plateau mountainous areas have not only a unique hydrological cycle mechanism but also are sensitive to climate change. Glacier and snow meltwater in the plateau mountainous areas have a large proportion in runoff and are a main water resources for industrial, agricultural and domestic water use in the basin. Two commonly used model, HBV and SRM, were selected for the quantitative analysis of snowmelt runoff contribution and the hydrological response to climate change scenarios in the Nyang River Basin in the southeastern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Based on the characteristics of the models, the HBV model was used to analyze the runoff composition, while the SRM model was used to analyze the runoff in climate change scenarios. The results showed that both models have a good performance in modeling the hydrological processes in the basin. The snow melts mainly concentrate in May, in the average annual precipitation, rainfall and snowfall accounted for 85% and 15%, respectively. From the results of sensitivity analysis, the increase in temperature would accelerate the melting of snow in April and May and turns the snowfall into rainfall in October. However, the change in precipitation mainly affects the runoff in July, August and September, when precipitation is dominated by rain. The results indicate that the timing of the effects of temperature and precipitation on the runoff process is different.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Flash floods caused by extreme rainfalls are one of the most significant natural hazards. In the present study, the precipitation data of 69 meteorological and climatological stations with temporal intervals (1961–2010) were obtained to determine the threshold of extreme precipitation as well as analyzing its significant patterns in the western regions of Iran. To determine the threshold of extreme precipitation, the theory of extreme value method was applied. In this method, precipitation of 22 mm and more than that covers 30% of the area had been identified and extracted as extreme precipitation. Therefore, 119 extreme precipitation events during the study period had been identified. Then, four patterns were analyzed using cluster analysis. After that, network data of geopotential height levels of 200, 300, 400 and 500 hPa for these days, from re-analyzed data series of NCEP/NCAR in the range of 10°–80°E and 0°–70°N and in 13,460 cells 2.5° × 2.5° were extracted by GrADS software. The results of the study showed that the most important humidity source for precipitation was the Mediterranean Sea, the Black Sea and the Red Sea, respectively. The upward vertical speed at different levels, located on the east and southeast cyclones of upper levels, which matches low pressure of the Earth’s surface, indicating unstable conditions in the region. Also, placing cutoff lows due to westerlies activities with warm and humid air advection at the surface and upper-level cold air were the main causes of severe atmospheric instability in the west of Iran.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉To explore the controlling factors of the hydrochemistry and hydraulic connections of groundwater in three mining districts, 45 water samples from three mining districts (Nos. 31, 32 and 42) in the Peigou Coal Mine are analyzed. The hydrogeochemical compositions of the three mining districts are analyzed, and the water–rock interaction and controlling factors of the hydrogeochemistry of the groundwater are discussed by examining the ionic composition (ion ratio) and using a factor analysis. Then, the hydraulic connection is determined by conducting cluster and discriminant analyses. Finally, a model that identifies the source of the water inrush of the three mining districts is provided. The results show the controlling factors of the hydrogeochemistry in the three mining districts. And it is speculated that the hydraulic connection between the Nos. 31 and 42 mining districts is higher than that between the Nos. 31 and 32 mining districts. It is hypothesized that there may be an obscured tunnel between the Nos. 31 and 42 mining districts, which is connected through the Fushanzhai fault. Based on the water source identification model of mining districts, the groundwater recharge relationship of three mining districts is inverted by analyzing the causes of misjudgment and comparing with groundwater pulse in different years. The proposed method provides a new idea for correctly recognizing the groundwater circulation conditions under the influence of mining.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Empirical models based on machine learning methods have been used for landslide susceptibility mapping. The most accurate model is usually chosen to generate the final map. This paper demonstrates the importance of analyzing the spatial pattern of susceptibility maps, since models with similar performance can produce different output values. The relevance of terrain attributes and the sensitivity of models to input variables are also discussed. The applications of random forest (RF) and artificial neural network (ANN) models to the identification of landslide susceptible areas in the Fão River Basin, Southern Brazil, were evaluated and compared. The following have been included in the methodology: (1) the extraction of predictive attributes (e.g., slope, aspect, curvatures, valley depth) from a digital elevation model; (2) the organization of a landslide scar inventory; (3) the calibration and validation procedures of the models; (4) the analysis of model performance according to accuracy (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and parsimony (Akaike Information Criterion); (5) the reclassification of maps into susceptibility categories. All model configurations resulted in an accuracy above 0.9, demonstrating the ability of both techniques in landslide susceptibility mapping. The RF model stood out in this respect, recording the highest accuracy index among all tested configurations (0.949). The ANN model was more parsimonious, obtaining an accuracy of 0.925 with a much smaller number of internal connections. Thus, even with both having high and equivalent accuracy indexes, the models can establish different relationships between the input and the output susceptibility indexes, resulting in various possible landslide occurrence scenarios. These differences, together with the difficulty in defining which model presents more coherent results, reinforce the possibility of extracting spatial statistics, considering multiple configurations of models that combine accuracy and parsimony, in landslide susceptibility mapping.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉The joint probability method (JPM) is the traditional way to determine the base flood elevation due to storm surge, and it usually requires simulation of storm surge response from tens of thousands of synthetic storms. The simulated storm surge is combined with probabilistic storm rates to create flood maps with various return periods. However, the map production requires enormous computational cost if state-of-the-art hydrodynamic models with high-resolution numerical grids are used; hence, optimal sampling (JPM-OS) with a small number of (~ 100–200) optimal (representative) storms is preferred. This paper presents a significantly improved JPM-OS, where a small number of optimal storms are objectively selected, and simulated storm surge responses of tens of thousands of storms are accurately interpolated from those for the optimal storms using a highly efficient kriging surrogate model. This study focuses on Southwest Florida and considers ~ 150 optimal storms that are selected based on simulations using either the low fidelity (with low resolution and simple physics) SLOSH model or the high fidelity (with high resolution and comprehensive physics) CH3D model. Surge responses to the optimal storms are simulated using both SLOSH and CH3D, and the flood elevations are calculated using JPM-OS with highly efficient kriging interpolations. For verification, the probabilistic inundation maps are compared to those obtained by the traditional JPM and variations of JPM-OS that employ different interpolation schemes, and computed probabilistic water levels are compared to those calculated by historical storm methods. The inundation maps obtained with the JPM-OS differ less than 10% from those obtained with JPM for 20,625 storms, with only 4% of the computational time.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Subsidence plays a significant role on safety of the mine surface constructions above the underground faces, extraction efficiency, and environment. The prediction of ground surface movements is an important challenge in mining sciences. Subsidence can occur as a result of removing rock in an underground mine. The surface constructions safety to resist subsidence in underground mining depends on mine topography, location, and type of them. The aim of this paper is to investigate the subsidence possibility in an underground mine by establishing the fuzzy membership function. The used subsidence estimation method was based on fuzzy theory. In this regard, using the several 〈em〉α〈/em〉-cuts, the subsidence in definite panel is defined as a fuzzy form. Finally, to show the application of the defined approach in the prediction of an underground mining subsidence based on fuzzy set theory, it was applied for the Tabas coal mine subsidence prediction which located in South Khorasan province of Iran. Results show that the mining area is in an unstable state by considering the critical-factor of safety = 0.75.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Large-scale hydrologic–hydrodynamic models are powerful tools for integrated water resources evaluation at the basin scale, especially in the context of flood hazard assessment. However, recent model developments have paid little attention to simulate reservoirs’ hydrodynamics within river networks. This study presents an adaptation of the MGB model to simulate reservoirs as an internal boundary condition, enabling the explicit simulation of hydrodynamic processes along reservoirs and their interaction with upstream and downstream floodplains in large basins. A case study is carried out in the Itajaí-Açu River Basin in Brazil, which has periodic flood-related disasters and three flood control dams. The model was calibrated for the 1950–2016 period forced with daily observed precipitation. The adjustment was satisfactory, with Nash–Sutcliffe metrics between 0.54 and 0.84 for the 11 gauges analyzed and with flood frequency curves also well represented. Simulation scenarios with and without floodplains and reservoirs were performed to evaluate the relative role of these factors on flood control basin-wide through evaluation of simulated discharges, water levels and flood extent. Itajaí do Oeste tributary and Itajaí-Açu mainstem present major floodplain attenuation, while in Itajaí do Sul and Itajaí do Norte tributaries the main flood control occurs due to reservoir attenuation. Downstream from the dams, results indicated that the reservoirs reach their maximum discharge reduction capacity for 5- to 10-year floods, decreasing it for larger floods. The developed model may be very useful for operational uses as flood forecasting and coordinated reservoir operation studies, as well as to enhance the comprehension of flood dynamics at basin scale.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉The level of groundwater can also be used in monitoring desertification and land degradation. In this study, three models, namely: partial least square regression, artificial neural networks (ANN), and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, were used to monitor and predict the level of groundwater and the land degradation index via the Iranian Model of Desertification Potential Assessment method. The groundwater data of 24 Piezometric wells from 2002 to 2016 were also collated to predict the groundwater level. In all models, 70% of the data were applied for training, while 30% of data were employed for testing and validation. Monthly rainfall, topographic wetness index, distance of the river (m), latitude and longitude of Piezometers in the Universal Transverse Mercator coordinate system were the inputs, and the level of groundwater was the output of each method. The prediction performance of both training and testing sets is evaluated by 〈em〉R〈/em〉〈sup〉2〈/sup〉 and MSE. Looking at statistical inferences, we found that ANN has the highest efficiency (〈em〉R〈/em〉〈sup〉2〈/sup〉 = 0.96, MSE = 0.71 m) which agree with other findings. We combined the results of ANN with ordinary kriging (OK) and produced a groundwater condition map. According to the potential desertification map and groundwater level index, the potential of desertification had become severe since 2002 and was at a rate of 60% of land area, which, due to incorrect land management in 2016, increased to almost 98% of the land surface in the study area. Again between 2002 and 2016, the land area with low degradation risk decreased from 38,030 ha (39% of the study area) to zero ha in 2016. In 2016, there was no moderate land degradation risk. Using ANN, we predicted that around 99% of the area (95,206 ha) was severely degraded in 2017 and according to groundwater level index, the land degradation increased by 100%. This implies that the area deserves urgent care and reclamation. We also used latitude and longitude of Piezometers as input variables which improved the model. In addition to the target variable, latitude and longitude play important roles in OK and decreased the total error of two combined models.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Previous studies in western Kyushu revealed prominent marine-derived flood deposits that date to the late thirteenth-century and are interpreted to be a result of two legendary typhoons linked to the failed Mongol invasions of Japan in 1274 and 1281. The regional persistence and prominence of sediments dating to these “Kamikaze” typhoon events (meaning divine wind) raise questions about the origins of these late thirteenth-century deposits. This is due in part to uncertainty in distinguishing between tsunami and storm-induced deposition. To provide additional insight into the true cause of prominent late thirteenth-century flood deposits in western Kyushu, we present a detailed assessment of an additional event deposit dating to the late thirteenth-century from Lake Kawahara near Nagasaki, Japan. This particular deposit thickens landward towards the primary river flowing into Lake Kawahara and exhibits anomalously low Sr/Ti ratios that are consistent with a fluvial rather than a marine sediment source. When combined with previous flood reconstructions, results support the occurrence of an extreme, late thirteenth-century event that was associated with both intense marine- and river-derived flooding. Results therefore contribute to a growing line of evidence for the Kamikaze typhoons resulting in widespread flooding in the region, rather than the late thirteenth-century deposit being associated with a significant tsunami impact to western Kyushu.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Spatial and temporal assessment of drought hazard over the Krishna River basin of India has been performed using long-term (January 1901–December 2002) precipitation and temperature data. Various meteorological drought indices such as the Standardized Precipitation Index, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, Standardized Effective Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) have been evaluated on a 12-month timescale for assessment of the drought hazard. Various physical drought characteristics such as the maximum drought magnitude, maximum drought duration and probability of occurrence of droughts, i.e., drought frequency, are also analyzed for the Krishna River basin. Analysis led to identification of major dry periods from the evaluated drought characteristics and generation of spatial maps of magnitude, duration and intensity for each index for each of the dry periods. The socioeconomic aspects of drought have also been explored by analyzing drought hazard, vulnerability and risk which are mapped spatially to evaluate drought susceptibility of various regions in the basin. The study revealed a positive correlation between the maximum drought magnitude, drought duration and drought risk, and an indirect proportionality between drought intensities and drought frequency. The analysis of physical drought characteristics revealed that the RDI deviated significantly from the remainder indices. The importance of socioeconomic variables is also highlighted as districts having normal meteorological conditions became the hotspots of drought risk because of sensitive demographics in the study basin.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉China is vulnerable to climate change impacts, and this study investigates the potential socioeconomic damages to China from weather-related events under future climate conditions. A two-part model incorporating a hierarchical Bayesian approach is employed to explore the effects of climate on human damage (the share of affected people in a total population) and economic damage (the share of economic losses in gross domestic product). Based on these relationships, the relative changes in socioeconomic damages under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are presented at the regional and national levels. Our results show that China would experience an increase in socioeconomic damages from rainfall-related events under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, and the higher increments mainly appear in the central and southwestern areas. Future climate conditions may greatly increase national damages from drought events under RCP8.5. Damages in some northern and southeastern provinces could double by 2081–2090. The national damage to humans from cold-related events is almost unchanged in most climate scenarios; however, the associated economic damage has downtrends.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Floods have always been associated with widespread devastation and destruction since the emergence of human civilization. The intensity of this disaster has been increasing due to accelerated impact of human activities. Flood vulnerability is very diverse in nature and is multidimensional and a topic of vital significance. Hence, flood vulnerability assessment assumes greater significance since magnitude of destructions varies over space and time. The study makes a credible attempt to present a coherent review on the approaches and methodologies used for assessing flood and its vulnerability. A time frame of 1990–2018 was chosen for analyzing varied works carried out flood vulnerability and susceptibility assessment. Articles from Scopus and other reputed journals were used to review the works on flood assessments. Methods and approaches were examined by considering most-cited authors and keywords used in their works. The study revealed a gap existing between methods and approaches for evaluating flood vulnerability which can be incorporated by using high-resolution data along with using multidimensional approach for assessing vulnerability. Furthermore, this study calls for comprehensive flood assessment using artificial neural network, hydrodynamic models and geospatial techniques to provide a vivid visualization of flood susceptibility. The study may prove helpful in analyzing different components of vulnerability and guiding research gaps in methodology to be used for assessing flood vulnerability at spatial scales.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Particulate matters 〈 2.5 μm (i.e., PM〈sub〉2.5〈/sub〉) are very important for health as well as radiative forcing studies. But over Indian continent, there is scarcity of the observation for PM〈sub〉2.5〈/sub〉 concentration which gets measured over only few locations with very coarse resolution. Limitations on resolution in space and time posed by the real-time measurements caused requirement of other measurements with high resolution in space and time. In this regard, satellite observations and model came up as good alternative as they can produce information with high resolution. Satellites and chemical transport models play a significant role and give wider option to study spatial and temporal patterns of particulate matter, especially for finer mode. In the present work, we have simulated the particulate matters (PM〈sub〉2.5〈/sub〉) over the Indian continent from 4–29.5°N and 67–88.5°E with the help of a chemical transport model ‘CHIMERE.’ We found its connection with satellite estimate aerosol optical depth (AOD) from MODIS and MISR sensors. Modeled results can be set for higher resolution than satellite data, so in the absence of satellite data, these relations can be useful. Particulate matters with aerodynamic radius 〈 2.5 are a contributor to total aerosol load which causes columnar aerosol optical depth. In this work, we took PM〈sub〉2.5〈/sub〉 concentration as an indicator of aerosol loading and thus compared it with columnar aerosol optical depth. Both approaches are coherent for various seasons on the year except monsoon as in the monsoon season availability of data from satellite was not consistent.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Major heat waves are occurring over India during the hottest months of May and June. Since the temperature extremes have major impact on human health and agriculture, better understanding the dynamics behind its evolution and propagation will help us to develop effective mitigation strategies. Understanding the spatio-temporal distribution, evolution and dynamics associated with heat waves is lacking over this region, due to the lack of high-resolution weather information. Here, we developed a high-resolution (4 × 4 km) dynamically downscaled hourly climate data for April to June during period of 2001–2016. The downscaled daily surface temperature is in good agreement with station observations, which is also in agreement with the observed features of temperature distribution during this period. Based on the Indian meteorological department definition, intensity of the heat waves is identified and re-classified into minor and severe category. The spatio-temporal distribution of each heat wave shows variation in its spatial coverage and also in its intensity. The distributions of heat waves are mainly over central India, North-West India and states such as Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana during pre-monsoon season. Results show that the increase in meridional heat transport is higher than the zonal advection component, and intensification of heat waves is linked with heat accumulation over a particular region associated with weakening of heat transport. The further amplification associated with depletion of soil moisture will result in the reduction in evaporative cooling, and it will further amplify the surface air temperature.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Both the river network and the regions outside the estuary mouths in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) of China experienced significant changes from 1999 to 2014. A validated hydrodynamic model across the entire PRD and adjacent regions outside the estuary mouths is employed to simulate both present (circa 2014) and past conditions (circa 1999). The total net water flux of the PRD decreased. The flow division of the West River is increasing, with values of 3.63% and 4.66% for the Makou and Denglongshan sections, respectively. The flood flow division of the North River is correspondingly decreasing. The value of the flood levels significantly decreased (more than 2 m) in the upper portion of the PRD, moderately decreased in the middle of the PRD (more than 1.1 m) and slightly decreased in the bottom part of the PRD (less than 0.22 m). In addition, the effects of morphodynamic evolution in different regions (i.e., the river network, coastline and bathymetry changes outside the estuary mouth) on floods are quantified. The results indicate that the decreased net water flux was caused by the increased channel’s capacity and the gentler water-level profile from the downcutting riverbed of the river network. The uneven morphodynamic evolution of the riverbed of the river network was primarily responsible for changes in the flood flow division in the PRD, and morphological evolution outside the estuary mouth was primarily responsible for reallocation within the outlets. The downcutting riverbed in the river network was primarily responsible for the lower flood levels in the upper and middle portion of the PRD. Reclamation seemed to have barely affected the flood level. The deepening bathymetry outside the estuary mouth was mainly responsible for the decrease in the flood level in the bottom portion of the PRD. The downcutting riverbed may decrease the stability of the riverbank, increasing the flood risk. The morphodynamic evolution of both the river network and the regions outside the estuary mouth should be considered to avoid unwanted side effects when designing local projects and flood mitigation strategies for the PRD.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉This paper studies the external impact of China’s energy policy and market environment changes and the internal impact of internal control and management on the economic benefits of petrochemical enterprises. From 2011 to 2015, China’s energy and economic policies were adjusted, and the market environment underwent major changes. This paper quantifies these two factors into indexes and combines them with the enterprise internal control index to apply them to the economic benefit model of petrochemical enterprises. Regression analysis has been used for positive analysis. The study finds that changes in China’s energy policy have played a guiding, regulating and promoting role in the development of petrochemical enterprises; the more restrictions the market environment imposes on petrochemical enterprises, the fewer economic benefits the petrochemical enterprises receive. Strengthening internal control in petrochemical enterprises can offset some unfavorable factors, and the economic benefits for downstream petrochemical enterprises are better than those for upstream ones. This paper reveals the effects of the energy policy action index, the market environment restriction index and the internal control index on the economic benefits of petrochemical enterprises. The policy recommendations are as follows: governments should improve the market environment and formulate policies that will benefit upstream petrochemical enterprises, especially oil and gas extraction enterprises, by raising product prices and increasing profit margins. 〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉The present study deals with the gender aspects of water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) situation in post-cyclone 〈em〉Aila〈/em〉 period in Bangladesh. Data were collected using participatory approaches like individual interview, key informant interview, focus group discussion and field level observation. Study reveals that after 〈em〉Aila〈/em〉, women had to travel 500 m–2 km per day to fetch water from safe water sources spending 30–90 min. People used pit and hanging latrines, uncovered water framed latrines as well as had open defecation. Considering the impromptu needs, government and other aid-giving agencies focused on immediate WaSH programme. The paper is an outcome of a critical assessment of those arduous efforts made to overcome the WaSH challenges after 〈em〉Aila〈/em〉, particularly women’s role in and challenges faced by them to improving the situation. Also attempt has been made to examine the opportunities and challenges of sustainability of WaSH programme pursued in the post-disaster period. For recovery of the WaSH system, a two-part strategy was followed where one was to make technology (tubewell, pond and filter, saline purification and rainwater harvesting plants) that supporting social arrangement and another was social arrangement (group formation, capacity building on construction, operation and maintenance) that supporting technology. A techno-social contingent model has been followed for addressing the post-disaster WaSH situation following a WasH approach. Women’s these roles in meeting the households’ WaSH requirements might be called WaSH-feminism. The main finding is that although there was a technical challenge to overcome the water and sanitation crises, after the disaster a set of appropriate technologies could remove it considerably, but a corresponding social arrangement was required there to operate it. Many kinds of technical and social limiting factors were there for women that could be removed partly but not totally.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Landslides are one of the most damaging disastrous phenomena that frequently lead to serious problems in hilly areas. The Namchi region of South Sikkim district as a part of Eastern Himalayas is not an exception to it. In the present study, multi-criteria analysis technique is used for landslide hazard zonation mapping. Various thematic layers, namely slope, rainfall distribution map, lineament density, drainage density, slope aspect, geology, land use/land cover and soil map, were integrated in a GIS platform (ArcGIS 10.1) to delineate landslide hazard zone. Analytic hierarchy process was used to determine the weight values of different factors. Relative rating values are assigned for the subclasses of each thematic layer based on their corresponding impact on the landslide triggers, and within a thematic layer, each class was assigned an ordinal rating from 0 to 9. The landslide hazard zonation map of Namchi region was produced based on weighted overly techniques. The landslide hazard map of Namchi region is divided into five vulnerable zones, namely very low-, low-, moderate-, high- and very high-hazard zones. Resulted landslide hazard zonation map was further validated with field study and geospatial technology-based analysis. The findings demonstrate high-landslide-hazard zones are associated with areas of active erosive processes (steep slopes/cut slopes/lineaments). The results indicate the villages Bomtar, Jorethang, Kopchey, Donok, Namthang, Sumbuk, Longchok, Mamring, Turung, Mikkhola, etc. are highly prone to landslides. The final landslide hazard zonation map can be used for the landslide hazard prevention, proper planning of future infrastructure and geoenvironmental development in Namchi region.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉The two-step framework for over-threshold modelling of environmental extremes proposed in Bernardara et al. (Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 14:635–647, 〈span〉2014〈/span〉) for univariate analyses is generalized to an event-based framework applicable to multivariate analyses. The distinction between sequential values (temporal observations at a given time step) and the event-describing values (such as storm peaks in univariate Peaks-Over-Threshold extrapolations) is further detailed and justified. The classification of multivariate analyses introduced in Mazas and Hamm (Coast Eng 122:44–59, 〈span〉2017〈/span〉) is refined and linked to the meaning of the concepts of event, sampling and return period that is thoroughly examined, their entanglement being highlighted. In particular, sampling is shown to be equivalent to event definition, identification and description. Event and return period definition are also discussed with respect to the source phenomena or to response (or structure) phenomena. The extreme event approach is thus proposed as a comprehensive framework for univariate and multivariate analyses for assessing natural hazards, seemingly applicable to any field of environmental studies. 〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Evidence shows the global climate will continue to change over this century and beyond. A clear understanding of the climate change risk is suggested to be the foundation of the human adaptation. The plausible climate risk index reported by Germanwatch may be criticized as the fully compensatory assumption among underlying indicators, and the risk performance of each country in absolute terms cannot be assessed as the information on indicator level lost. We formulate an enhanced non-compensatory assessment scheme to reassess country’s risk performance under climate change by means of penalizing underlying indicators that fail to satisfy certain criteria. Based on the new scheme, we can genuinely restrict the compensability among underlying indicators and provide informative decision aiding. A case study is performed to illustrate the effectiveness of our analysis by constructing a new climate risk index for 119 countries in terms of death toll, deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, absolute losses in PPP and losses per GDP unit.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉According to analysing the trends of land use changes in the upper reaches of Minjiang River in the past 30 years and precipitation in the last 50 years, nine types of simulation scenarios were constructed for different precipitation conditions and urbanization development processes. Based on the “five sub-basin selection principles” and “two simulation results evaluation indicators” proposed, the paper studied the influence of the urbanization process on hydrological processes under different precipitation conditions using the SWAT model. The primary conclusions are as follows: (1) the simulation results under the two kinds of land use transfer scenarios show the same laws: (a) when forest land (or grassland) is transferred to urban land, actual evapotranspiration (ET), soil water content (SW), amount of water percolating out of root zone (PERC) and groundwater contribution to streamflow (GW_Q) show a decreasing trend, and the reduction in watershed hydrological indexes is manifested as “high precipitation 〉 average precipitation 〉 low precipitation”. Moreover, surface runoff (SURQ), water yield (WYLD) and annual runoff show an increasing trend, and the increment in SURQ shows “high precipitation 〉 average precipitation 〉 low precipitation”, while the increment in WYLD and the simulated annual runoff show “low precipitation 〉 average precipitation 〉 high precipitation”. (b) Through analysis of the contribution of unit proportion transfer (CUPT) of watershed hydrological indicators, “SURQ 〉 PERC 〉 GW_Q 〉 ET 〉 SW” is observed in all precipitation scenarios. (2) Comparing simulation results between the two kinds of land use transfer scenarios: the CUPT variations of ET, SURQ and WYLD and the contribution of unit area transfer variations of daily flood peak and annual runoff both show “forest land transfer to urban land 〉 grassland transfer to urban land”. Finally, two special phenomena observed in the analysis of the simulation results were discussed. The study results can provide a scientific basis for urban planning and construction for reducing the impact on urban flood.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉The chemical industry is one of the most important industry sectors in terms of energy consumption and CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 emissions in China. However, few studies have undertaken accounting of the CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 emissions in the chemical industry. In addition, there are some shortcomings in the traditional accounting method as a result of poor data availability, such as the incomplete consideration of emission sources and overestimation of actual emissions. Based on the traditional accounting method and the actual situation of the chemical industry, this study proposes a method called the Emission Accounting Model in the Chemical Industry, which covers fossil energy-related emission, indirect emission generated by electricity and heat, carbonate-related process emission and the reuse of CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉. In particular, fossil energy used as feedstock is included. By applying the Emission Accounting Model in the Chemical Industry in China, the calculated CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 emissions would be 19–30% less than the result from the traditional method. In addition, it is found that the indirect CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 emissions generated by electricity and heat account for 67% of the total amount, the fossil energy-related emissions account for approximately 37%, the process-related emissions accounted for 2%, and reuse of CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 accounts for − 6% in 2016. The production of ammonia, ethylene and calcium carbide generated approximately half of the total CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 emissions in 2016. In addition, in view of emission sources and carbon source flow, two other bottom-up accounting methods are proposed that can take effect when the chemical plant-level data are available.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉In this study, the first ever Sea, Lake, Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) grid was built for the Yucatan Peninsula. The SLOSH model was used to simulate storm surges in the coastal area of the states of Yucatan and Campeche (Mexico). Based on climatology, more than 39,900 hypothetical hurricanes covering all possible directions of motion were synthesized. The storm intensity (category), forward speed, radius of maximum winds and the tide anomaly were varied for each hypothetical track. According to these scenarios, the potential storm surge and associated inundation threat were computed. Subsequently, the Maximum Envelope of Water (MEOW) and the Maximum of the MEOWs (MOMs) were calculated to assess the flood hazard induced by tropical cyclones under varying conditions. In addition, for each MOM, the socioeconomic vulnerability aspects were taken into account in order to assess the hurricane flood risk for the states of Yucatan and Campeche. Results show that the most vulnerable areas are the surroundings of Terminos lagoon, Campeche City and its neighboring areas in the state of Campeche. For Yucatan, the towns located in the Northwest (Celestun, Hunucma and Progreso) and the eastern part of the state presented the highest risk values. The methodology used in this study can be applied to other coastal zones of Mexico as well as places with similar attributes. Furthermore, the MEOW and MOM are very useful as a decision-making tool for prevention, preparedness, evacuation plans, mitigation of the flood hazard and its associated risk, and also for insurance companies.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉The 2003 global outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) was a wake-up call for health systems in Canada, with realization of occupational health risks faced by health care workers and first responders in public health emergency response. The need for investment in critical social infrastructure—including explicitly articulated plans—became a priority for managing future pandemics. Over the past 15 years, pandemic planning has evolved with the adoption of a whole-of-society approach to disaster risk reduction. There is recognition of the social gradient of risk, which emerges from the interaction between social determinants of health, risk of exposure, and adverse impacts from a pandemic. Additionally, there is better understanding of the benefits of planning according to functional needs, rather than deficit-oriented labelling. In this paper, we reflect on how the framing of vulnerable or high-risk populations has evolved since SARS. Looking to the future, we present the imperative for the creation of institutional space for engagement of high-risk populations in pandemic planning processes, including participatory governance. Innovative consultation strategies are needed to enhance collective asset literacy and ensure planning is adaptive to the changing social fabric. Progressive pandemic planning in the next decade must be inclusive and sensitive to modern definitions of family, varied abilities, cultural practices and gender and sexual diversity, thereby reflecting a whole-of-society approach to disaster risk reduction.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉This paper reports the results of an investigation into past major tsunamis on the Aitape coast of Papua New Guinea. The investigation was mounted to gather information to help assess the level of ongoing tsunami risk, in the aftermath of a catastrophic tsunami that struck this coast in 1998. We found that local residents have a strong oral tradition of a great tsunami at some time in the past, date unknown. A possible geological record of past major tsunamis was found in a submerged rock face that comprised clay-rich mudstone with three centimetric interbeds of peat, two of which contained coarse detrital sediment of marine origin. The topmost peat contained much marine detrital sediment, some of it very coarse (pebbles to 4 cm), and was dated at around AD 1440–1600. The second peat contained a much smaller proportion of detrital sediment, finer sediment than was in the topmost, and was dated at around AD 1150–1240. The lowermost peat was dated at around AD 980–1050. The two occurrences of coarse detrital sediments are presumed to be a record of past marine incursions into coastal swamps, probably as tsunamis or possibly as storm waves. The more recent, and more energetic, incursion, at around AD 1440–1600, was very likely the great tsunami of legend. In the thousand years recorded in the submerged rock face, there have been, at most, three major tsunamis, at approximate intervals of 300–500 years.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉High-frequency (5–20 Hz) seismic signals precursory to and embedded within the June 17, 2017 〈em〉M〈/em〉〈sub〉L〈/sub〉 = 4 earthquake–landslide event are analyzed. This event in western Greenland generated a tsunami in Karrat fjord inundating Nuugaatsiaq village 32 km distant. Spectrogram and wavelet analyses of seismic data from the Greenland Ice Sheet Monitoring Network (GLISN) corroborate observations of seismic precursors at Nuugaatsiaq reported by Poli (Geophys Res Lett 44:8832–8836, 〈span〉2017〈/span〉) and Caplan-Auerbach (in: AGU fall meeting abstracts, 〈span〉2017〈/span〉) and reveal additional high-frequency arrivals being generated after the apparent initiation of fault rupture. New observations of seismic precursors 181 km from the Event at Upernavik, Greenland are correlated with those seen at Nuugaatsiaq. Wavelet analysis presents 〉 100 significant energy peaks accelerating up to and into the earthquake–landslide event. The precursor events show a distinct, power law distribution, characterized by 〈em〉b〈/em〉 values of ~ 2.4. Results are compared and contrasted with small precursors observed in the studies of a natural chalk cliff landslide at Mesnil-Val, Haute Normandie, France. The earthquake–landslide appears to have been initiated by seismic precursors located at the fault scarp, leading to a small seismic foreshock and small landslide initiation, followed by a larger earthquake at the fault scarp, precipitating the primary landslide into the Karrat Fjord, which caused the subsequent tsunami.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉The paper introduces a three-dimensional numerical technique to assess typhoon hazards in China coastal regions based on a series of full-set numerical meteorology simulations. The boundary and initial conditions of the simulations are provided by adding pseudorandom fluctuations, which represent the localized, short-term meteorological variations, to synoptic fields, which show the large-scale, long-term meteorological patterns. A series of bogus typhoons are inserted into the initial field to provide the “seeds” from which the artificial typhoons could grow. The initial positions and intensities of the bogus typhoons are drawn from the random variables whose statistics agree with those derived from historical typhoon track data. In the present study, 1503 full-set meteorology simulations of artificial typhoons are conducted. The extreme wind speeds versus return periods calculated from the simulation results are compared to not only the specifications in the load code, but also the results from the previous studies. It is found that the extreme wind speeds in the Pearl-River Delta are, contradicting to the common expectation, higher than at the mainland side of the Taiwan Strait, which imply that the typhoons hitting Guangdong are, on average, more intense than those influencing Fujian. Given the possibility to improve the three-dimensional meteorology model in the future, the simulation technique proposed in the present study provides a novel direction to assess the meteorological hazards, including threads posted by typhoons.〈/p〉

Description: 〈h3〉Abstract〈/h3〉 〈p〉Disaster mitigation as a pre-disaster measure within the scope of disaster risk management is significant in the sense of reducing the adverse effects of earthquakes in the context of earthquake-sensitive risk planning. In the urban planning context, the existence of numerous decision makers and alternatives, which are depending on many criteria, makes decision-making process difficult. This difficulty was overcomed through geographical information systems (GIS). In the context of GIS-based multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) analysis, we used analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) to determine earthquake-risky areas in Yalova City Center. First, AHP analysis related to geological and superstructure/infrastructure criteria was conducted and two separate AHP maps were obtained. Then, we conducted TOPSIS analysis to consider both criteria in the sense of earthquake risk-sensitive planning. Then, overall earthquake risk map obtained which could be used as an input for disaster mitigation processes. 〈/p〉

Description:    Natural hazard assessments are always subject to uncertainties due to missing knowledge about the complexity of hazardous processes as well as their natural variability. Decision-makers in the field of natural hazard management need to understand the concept, components, sources, and implications of existing uncertainties in order to reach informed and transparent decisions. Until now, however, only few hazard maps include uncertainty visualizations which would be much needed for an enhanced communication among experts and decision-makers in order to make informed decisions possible. In this paper, an analysis of how uncertainty is currently treated and communicated by Swiss natural hazards experts is presented. The conducted expert survey confirmed that the communication of uncertainty has to be enhanced, possibly with the help of uncertainty visualizations. However, in order to visualize the spatial characteristics of uncertainty, existing uncertainties need to be quantified. This challenge is addressed by the exemplary simulation of a snow avalanche event using a deterministic model and quantified uncertainties with a sensitivity analysis. Suitable visualization methods for the resulting spatial variability of the uncertainties are suggested, and the advantages and disadvantages of their implementation in an interactive cartographic information system are discussed. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-17 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9864-y Authors Melanie Kunz, Institute of Cartography and Geoinformation, ETH Zurich, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland Adrienne Grêt-Regamey, Planning of Landscape and Urban Systems, Institute for Spatial and Landscape Planning, ETH Zurich, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland Lorenz Hurni, Institute of Cartography and Geoinformation, ETH Zurich, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    The present work addresses the problem of lack of coordination between policies and actors with joint competence for risk management, i.e., civil protection, spatial planning, and sectoral planning (e.g., forest policy in the case of forest fire risk). Spatial planning in particular is assigned a minor or no role at all though it might perfectly operate as the coordinating policy platform; the reason is that spatially relevant analysis and policy guidance is an omnipresent component of the risk management cycle. However, disconnected risk relevant policies turning a blind eye to spatial planning might cause several adverse repercussions: Breaks in the response-preparedness-prevention-remediation chain (which should function as a continuum), minimal attention to prevention, risk expansion and growth instead of mitigation, lack of synergies between involved actors as well as duplicated or even diverging measures and funding. The authors bear witness to the above suggestions by examining three cases of European (regional and local) risk management systems faced with failures when confronting natural hazards (floods and forest fires). These three systems are embedded in different types of political-administrative structures, namely those of the city of Dortmund (Germany) facing floods, Eastern Attica region (Greece), and Lazio Region (Italy) facing forest fires. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-30 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9843-3 Authors Kalliopi Sapountzaki, Department of Geography, Harokopio University of Athens, Athens, Greece Sylvia Wanczura, Institute of Fire Service and Rescue Technologies, Fire Department of Dortmund, Dortmund, Germany Gabriella Casertano, Regione Lazio, Dipartimento della Protezione Civile, Rome, Italy Stefan Greiving, Technical University of Dortmund, Dortmund, Germany Gavriil Xanthopoulos, National Agricultural Research Foundation, Institute of Mediterranean Forest Ecosystems and Forest Products Technology, Athens, Greece Floriana F. Ferrara, T6 Ecosystems srl, Rome, Italy Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    A practical, DEM-based practical method is proposed to enhance flood risk management in fluvial areas by quantifying relative risk as a function of vulnerability to inland and evacuation difficulty. Both measures are based mainly on the topography of the region, so the method does not require detailed data on the physical characteristics of the land. First, we use the deterministic 8-node method on a digital elevation map (DEM) to trace storm waterways. Second, we repeat the process on a reversed DEM to trace evacuation routes that avoid the waterways and zones dangerously close to the rivers. Finally, on the basis of such two flow lines of evacuee and storm water, we proposed the protocol to evaluate the flood risk at every point on the map taking into account both the minimum time required for floodwater to arrive and duration of an evacuation from that location. The time that must be allocated for safe evacuation is defined as the potential flood risk of evacuation (PFRE). The method is demonstrated on a fluvial area of the Kaki River in Nagaoka city, Japan. In addition, we illustrated the application of the PFRE map to divide the region into areas of greater or lesser evacuation urgency. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-12 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9852-2 Authors Jinyoung Kim, Department of Urban Engineering, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, 113-8656 Japan Yuji Kuwahara, Ibaraki University, Ibaraki, Japan Manish Kumar, Tezpur University, Napaam, Assam 784 028, India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Earthquake-induced landslides can cause a large number of casualties and great economic loss. Presently, research methods for studying landslides are largely based on a framework of solid mechanics. In this work, visualization software, known as Visual SPH, is developed in Visual Basic 6.0, and can be used to analyze the fluidized movement of landslides based on smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH). First, the accuracy of the software is verified through simulating a benchmark problem of a dam-break. Then, fluidized movement analysis of the Tangjiashan landslide is carried out using this software. The simulation derives plots of displacement versus time, reproduces the entire flow process of the Tangjiashan landslide, and determines the run-out, which coincides exactly with the characteristics of flow-like landslides observed in the field. All of these are essential in the design of supporting structures and site selection for reconstruction in earthquake-prone regions. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-14 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9859-8 Authors Yu Huang, Key Laboratory of Geotechnical and Underground Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092 China Zili Dai, Department of Geotechnical Engineering, Tongji University, 200092 Shanghai, China Weijie Zhang, Department of Geotechnical Engineering, Tongji University, 200092 Shanghai, China Zhiyi Chen, Key Laboratory of Geotechnical and Underground Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092 China Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Marine overwash from the north a few centuries ago transported hundreds of angular cobbles and boulders tens to hundreds of meters southward from limestone outcrops in the interior of Anegada, 140 km east–northeast of Puerto Rico. We examined two of several cobble and boulder fields as part of an effort to interpret whether the overwash resulted from a tsunami or a storm in a location where both events are known to occur. One of the cobble and boulder field extends 200 m southward from limestone outcrops that are 300 m inland from the island’s north shore. The other field extends 100 m southward from a limestone knoll located 800 m from the nearest shore. In the two fields, we measured the size, orientation, and spatial distribution of a total of 161 clasts and determined their stratigraphic positions with respect to an overwash sand and shell sheet deposit. In both fields, we found the spacing between clasts increased southward and that clast long-axis orientations are consistent with a transport trending north–south. Almost half the clasts are partially buried in a landward thinning and fining overwash sand and none were found embedded in the shelly mud of a pre-overwash marine pond. The two cobble and boulder fields resemble modern tsunami deposits in which dispersed clasts extend inland as a single layer. The fields contrast with coarse clast storm deposits that often form wedge-shaped shore-parallel ridges. These comparisons suggest that the overwash resulted from a tsunami and not from a storm. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-13 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9848-y Authors Steve Watt, U.S. Geological Survey, 400 Natural Bridges Drive, Santa Cruz, CA 95060, USA Mark Buckley, U.S. Geological Survey, 400 Natural Bridges Drive, Santa Cruz, CA 95060, USA Bruce Jaffe, U.S. Geological Survey, 400 Natural Bridges Drive, Santa Cruz, CA 95060, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Improvements in hurricane forecasts allowing for more timely evacuations from storm-surge zones are credited with reducing lethality of US landfalling hurricanes. The deadly reach of a hurricane, however, is not limited to storm-surge zones. About 80% of direct US hurricane fatalities since 1970 occurred outside of landfall counties, with most of these fatalities caused by inland flooding. We construct a geographic information system database combining the location and cause of fatalities, estimated wind speeds, and rainfall amounts for the entire track of the storm for landfalling US hurricanes between 1970 and 2007. We analyze the determinants of total fatalities and deaths due to freshwater drowning and wind. Inclusion of inland fatalities results in no downward trend in lethality over the period, in contrast to prior research. Local storm conditions significantly affect lethality, as one-inch and one-knot increases in rainfall and wind increase total fatalities by 28 and 4%. Rainfall significantly increases freshwater-drowning deaths and is insignificant for wind deaths, while the opposite relation holds for wind speed. While coastal counties do not exhibit a significantly higher amount of lethality risk versus inland counties for total or wind-driven fatalities, freshwater-drowning fatalities occur most frequently in inland counties along the center of the storm path and its outer county tiers as we have defined them. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9849-x Authors Jeffrey Czajkowski, Department of Economics, Austin College, Sherman, TX, USA Kevin Simmons, Department of Economics, Austin College, Sherman, TX, USA Daniel Sutter, Department of Economics and Finance, University of Texas - Pan American, Edinburg, TX, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    This study explored demographic variations among victims injured in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The study analyzed records of 2,148 patients who were hospitalized with earthquake-related injuries in 14 hospitals between May 12 and May 21 of 2008. We tested the effects of gender and age on the incidence of fractures and amputations. Although more women than men were hospitalized as earthquake victims, the results indicated that a higher incidence of pelvic fracture in women was the only statistically significant injury with regard to gender. Age had a more complex effect on the rate and pattern of fractures. Children younger than 15 years old were the most likely to sustain skull fractures and amputations. The elderly were the most likely to be associated with limb fractures. Adult men were the most likely to suffer spine fractures and adult women rib fractures. The paper concludes with an interpretation of the results in the context of China’s rural conditions and discusses implications for post-disaster emergency operations and planning. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9836-2 Authors Ying Cao, College of Architecture and Environment, Sichuan University, No. 24 South Section 1, Yihuan Road, Chengdu, 610065 China Nabil Kamel, School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University, Coor Hall, 975 S. Myrtle Ave., Fifth Floor, P.O. Box 875302, Tempe, AZ 85287-5302, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Following the catastrophic and devastating Atlantic Hurricane seasons in 2004 and 2005, there has been increased interest in formulating planning directives and policy aimed at minimizing the societal impacts of future storms. Not all populations will evacuate an area forecast to be affected by a hurricane, so emergency managers must plan for these people who remain behind. Such planning includes making food, water, ice, and other provisions available at strategic locations throughout an affected area. Recent research has tackled problems related to humanitarian and relief goods distribution with respect to hurricanes. Experience shows that the torrential rains and heavy winds associated with hurricanes can severely damage transportation network infrastructure rendering it unusable. Scanning the literature on hurricane disaster relief provision, there are no studies that expressly consider the potential damage that may be caused to a transportation network by strong storms. This paper examines the impacts of simulated network failures on hurricane disaster relief planning strategies, using a smaller Florida City as an example. A relief distribution protocol is assumed where goods distribution points are set up in pre-determined locations following the passage of a storm. Simulation results reveal that modest disruptions to the transportation network produce marked changes in the number and spatial configuration of relief facilities. At the same time, the transportation network appears to be robust and is able to support relief service provision even at elevated levels of hypothesized disruption. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-16 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9855-z Authors Mark W. Horner, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, USA Michael J. Widener, University at Buffalo, 105 Wilkeson Quad, Buffalo, NY 14261-0001, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Although the risk of flooding poses a serious threat to the Dutch public, citizens are not very inclined to engage in self-protective behaviors. Current risk communication tries to enhance these self-protective behaviors among citizens, but is nonetheless not very successful. The level of citizens engaging in self-protective actions remains rather low. Therefore, this research strives to determine the factors that might enhance or lessen the intention to engage in self-protection among citizens. The study was a 2 (flood risk: high vs low) × 2 (efficacy beliefs: high vs low) between subject experiment. It was conducted to test how varying levels of flood risk and efficacy beliefs influence two different self-protective behaviors, namely information seeking and the intention to engage in risk mitigating or preventive behaviors. Furthermore, the relationship between information seeking and the intention to take self-protective actions was discussed. Results showed that high levels of flood risk lead to higher levels of both information seeking and the intention to engage in self-protective behaviors than low levels of flood risk. For efficacy beliefs, the same trend occurred. Also, results showed that information seeking seems to coincide with the intention to take preventive actions and acted as a mediator between the levels of perceived risk and efficacy and the intention to take self-protective actions. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-16 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9845-1 Authors Milou Kievik, Saxion, University for Applied Sciences, PO Box 70.000, 7500 KB Enschede, The Netherlands Jan M. Gutteling, University of Twente, PO Box 217, 7500 AE Enschede, The Netherlands Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Much progress has been made in the area of tropical cyclone prediction using high-resolution mesoscale models based on community models developed at National Centers for Environmental Predication (NCEP) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). While most of these model research and development activities are focused on predicting hurricanes in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific domains, there has been much interest in using these models for tropical cyclone prediction in the North Indian Ocean region, particularly for Bay of Bengal storms that are known historically causing severe damage to life and property. In this study, the advanced operational hurricane modeling system developed at NCEP, known as the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model, is used to simulate two recent Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones—Nargis of November 2007 and Sidr of April 2008. The advanced NCEP operational vortex initialization procedure is adapted for simulating these Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones. Two additional regional models, the NCAR Advanced Research WRF and NCAR/Penn State University Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5) are also used in simulating these storms. Results from these experiments highlight the superior performance of HWRF model over other models in predicting the Bay of Bengal cyclones. These results also suggest the need for a sophisticated vortex initialization procedure in conjunction with a model designed exclusively for tropical cyclone prediction for operational considerations. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9839-z Authors D. V. Bhaskar Rao, TLGVRC, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS 39217, USA Vijay Tallapragada, NCEP/EMC, 5200 Auth Road, Camp Springs, MD 20746, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Landslides interacting with large infrastructures represent a major problem for the economy, society as a whole, and the safety of workers. Continuous monitoring for 23 months using an integrated platform with a ground-based SAR interferometer (GB-InSAR), a weather station, and an automatic camera gave us the opportunity to analyze the response of an unstable slope to the different phases of work. The deformational behavior of both the natural slope and the man-made structures was recorded and interpreted in relation to the working stages and the rainfall conditions during the whole monitoring period. A typical pattern of displacement was identified for shallow landslides, debris produced by the excavation and gabions, metallic walls, and anchored bulkheads. Furthermore, insights into the dynamics and behavior of the slope and the man-made structures that interact with the landslide were obtained. Extreme rainfall is the main trigger of shallow landslides and gabion deformations, while anchored bulkheads are less influenced by rainfalls. Movement of debris that is produced by excavations and temporary metallic barrier deformation are closely related to each other. The herein proposed monitoring platform is very efficient in monitoring unstable slopes that are affected by human activities. Moreover, the recorded patterns of displacement in the slope and the man-made structures can be used as reference data for similar studies and engineering designs. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-20 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9840-6 Authors Francesca Bozzano, CERI, Research Centre on Prevention, Prediction and Control of Geological Risks, P.zza U. Pilozzi 9, 00038 Valmontone, Italy Ivan Cipriani, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, “Sapienza” Università di Roma, P.le Aldo Moro 5, 00185 Rome, Italy Paolo Mazzanti, CERI, Research Centre on Prevention, Prediction and Control of Geological Risks, P.zza U. Pilozzi 9, 00038 Valmontone, Italy Alberto Prestininzi, CERI, Research Centre on Prevention, Prediction and Control of Geological Risks, P.zza U. Pilozzi 9, 00038 Valmontone, Italy Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    In the midst of the ever-increasing natural and human-induced disasters, where many of the preparedness and mitigation measures show inefficiencies, there is narrow margin for decision-makers to make mistakes by misallocating budgets, designing infeasible reconstruction plans, and in other terms, making decisions not in line with the public preferences. In particular, public participation in post-disaster measures seems undoubtedly necessary to reduce the possible economic, social, political, and cultural conflicts around the stressful community after a major disaster. This paper aims at evaluating the role of public participation in increasing the reconstruction phase efficiency through a case study of the reconstruction process in Bam, a southeastern Iranian city, after the 2003 earthquake. It is attempted to identify the major motivators of the public participation through a combination of quantitative and qualitative studies. Statistical data are generated through a set of questionnaires being filled by a number of 200 randomly selected survivors. The numerical results were then discussed through the Focus Group technique sessions to determine the main contributors to the public participation. It is later found that the answers are found among the performance of the reconstruction authorities, financial policies, emotional resiliency of the survivors, public information mechanisms, public satisfaction, the pace of reconstruction, and temporary housing policies. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-16 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9842-4 Authors Babak Omidvar, Graduate Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, P.O. Box 14155-6135, Tehran, Iran Hossein Zafari, Housing Foundation of Islamic Revolution, Tehran, Iran Mehdi Khakpour, Graduate Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, P.O. Box 14155-6135, Tehran, Iran Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    After the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman tsunamigenic earthquake, waters from the ocean moved upstream along rivers, bays, harbors, and lagoons and inundated many coastal and inland locations in the southern, eastern, and northern parts of Sri Lanka. The tsunami waters were observed to move upwards inland and then recede downwards to the ocean after varying inundation periods in different coastal areas. Subsequent massive tsunami waves came with the wave height varying from 3 to 8 m inland with speed of about 30–40 kmph. The oceanic waves carrying heterogeneous sediments with water deposited them in coastal as well as inland locations about 1 km from the present coastline. Given the chaotic nature of tsunami oceanic waves, pre-tsunami deposits, such as beach sands, debris from coral reefs and buildings, parts of vehicles and ships, and tree trunks are found incorporated in authentic tsunami sediments. Thus, the texture, structure, and composition of sediments deposited by tsunami waters differed from one location to another. Therefore, in identifying paleo-tsunami sediments, care was taken to compare them with diagnostic unmixed uncontaminated recent tsunami sediments having characteristic textures and marine microfossil assemblages, such as foraminifera, radiolarians, and diatoms where preserved in coastal depressions. The radiocarbon ages of the carbonate and the organic fractions of these sediments are stratigraphically inconsistent, indicating mixing of sediments by the tsunami waves. The concentrations of organic carbon and nitrogen and their isotopic signatures confirm marine origin of these sediments. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-13 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9824-6 Authors Kapila Dahanayake, Department of Geology, University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya, Sri Lanka Nayomi Kulasena, Roughton International (UK), Southern Transport Development Project, Baddegama, Sri Lanka G. V. Ravi Prasad, AMS Radiocarbon Laboratory, Institute of Physics, Bhubaneswar, 751005 India Koushik Dutta, AMS Radiocarbon Laboratory, Institute of Physics, Bhubaneswar, 751005 India D. K. Ray, AMS Radiocarbon Laboratory, Institute of Physics, Bhubaneswar, 751005 India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Assessment and inventory on soil erosion hazard are essential for the formulation of successful hazard mitigation plans and sustainable development. The objective of this study was to assess and map soil erosion hazard in Lesser Himalaya with a case study. The Dabka watershed constitutes a part of the Kosi Basin in the Lesser Himalaya, India, in district Nainital has been selected for the case illustration. The average rate of erosion hazard is 0.68 mm/year or 224 tons/km 2 /year. Anthropogenic and geo-environmental factors have together significantly accelerated the rate of erosion. This reconnaissance study estimates the erosion rate over the period of 3 years (2006–2008) as 1.21 mm/year (398 tons/km 2 /year) in the barren land having geological background of diamictite, siltstone and shale rocks, 0.92 mm/year (302 tons/km 2 /year) in the agricultural land with lithology of diamictite, slates, siltstone, limestone rocks, while in the forest land, it varies between 0.20 mm/year (66 tons/km 2 /year) under dense forest land having the geology of quartzwacke and quartrenite rocks and 0.40 mm/year (132 tons/km 2 /year) under open forest/shrubs land having geological setup of shale, dolomite and gypsum rocks. Compared to the intensity of erosion in the least disturbed dense forest, the erosion rate is about 5–6 times higher in the most disturbed agricultural land and barren land, respectively. The erosion hazard zones delineated following scalogram modelling approach. Integrated scalogram modelling approach resulted in severe classes of soil erosion hazard in the study area with numerical values of Erosion Hazard Index (EHI) ranging between 01 (very low hazard) and 5 (very high hazard). Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-21 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9833-5 Authors Pradeep K. Rawat, Department of Geography, Kumaun University, Nainital, 263002 India P. C. Tiwari, Department of Geography, Kumaun University, Nainital, 263002 India C. C. Pant, Department of Geology, Kumaun University, Nainital, 263002 India A. K. Sharama, Department of Geology, Kumaun University, Nainital, 263002 India P. D. Pant, Department of Geology, Kumaun University, Nainital, 263002 India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Soil erosion is a serious environmental problem in Indravati catchment. It carries the highest amount of sediments compared with other catchments in India. This catchment spreading an area of 41,285 km 2 is drained by river Indravati, which is one of the northern tributaries of the river Godavari in its lower reach. In the present study, USLE is used to estimate potential soil erosion from river Indravati catchment. Both magnitude and spatial distribution of potential soil erosion in the catchment is determined. The derived soil loss map from USLE model is classified into six categories ranging from slight to very severe risk depending on the calculated soil erosion amount. The soil erosion map is linked to elevation and slope maps to identify the area for conservation practice in order to reduce the soil loss. From the model output predictions, it is found that average erosion rate predicted is 18.00 tons/ha/year and sediment yield at the out let of the catchment is 22.30 Million tons per annum. The predicted sediment yield verified with the observed data. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-17 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9832-6 Authors Sreenivasulu Vemu, Department of Civil Engineering, JNT University, Kakinada, 533003 AP, India Udaya Bhaskar Pinnamaneni, Department of Civil Engineering, JNT University, Kakinada, 533003 AP, India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    This paper introduces a new metric for tropical cyclone track shape within the tropical South Pacific (TSP) basin, based on measurements of track sinuosity. A sinuosity index (SI) is developed by applying a simple cube-root transformation to original track sinuosity values. Based on the resulting near-normal SI distribution, an ordinal four-category (quartile) naming system is then proposed for track-type classification. Track sinuosity patterns are also investigated over the last four decades (1970–2008). Analytical findings suggest that cyclone track sinuosity is an important parameter influencing the potential vulnerability of island archipelagoes to cyclone hazard. Principally, sinuously moving cyclones show some tendency for greater longevity and intensity than straighter-tracking storms and make up a larger proportion of systems forming in the western tropical South Pacific than those generated farther east. Although no long-term statistical trend can be established, track sinuosity is highly variable through time, implying that the TSP basin and the islands therein will continue to experience large but irregular inter-annual fluctuations in cyclone track morphology. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-14 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9827-3 Authors James P. Terry, Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, AS2, 1 Arts Link, Kent Ridge, 117570 Singapore Gennady Gienko, Department of Geomatics, School of Engineering, University of Alaska Anchorage, 3211 Providence Drive, Anchorage, AK 99508-4514, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    The level of damage of flood events does not solely depend on exposure to flood waters. Vulnerabilities due to various socio-economic factors such as population at risk, public awareness, and presence of early warning systems, etc. should also be taken into account. Federal and state agencies, watershed management coalitions, insurance companies, need reliable decision support system to evaluate flood risk, to plan and design flood damage assessment and mitigation systems. In current practice, flood damage evaluations are generally carried out based on results obtained from one dimensional (1D) numerical simulations. In some cases, however, 1D simulation is not able to accurately capture the dynamics of the flood events. The present study describes a decision support system, which is based on 2D flood simulation results obtained with CCHE2D-FLOOD. The 2D computational results are complemented with information from various resources, such as census block layer, detailed survey data, and remote sensing images, to estimate loss of life and direct damages (meso or micro scale) to property under uncertainty. Flood damage calculations consider damages to residential, commercial, and industrial buildings in urban areas, and damages to crops in rural areas. The decision support system takes advantage of fast raster layer operations in a GIS platform to generate flood hazard maps based on various user-defined criteria. Monte Carlo method based on an event tree analysis is introduced to account for uncertainties in various parameters. A case study illustrates the uses of the proposed decision support system. The results show that the proposed decision support system allows stake holders to have a better appreciation of the consequences of the flood. It can also be used for planning, design, and evaluation of future flood mitigation measures. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9822-8 Authors Honghai Qi, National Center for Computational Hydroscience and Engineering (NCCHE), The University of Mississippi, University, Oxford, MS 38677, USA M. S. Altinakar, National Center for Computational Hydroscience and Engineering (NCCHE), The University of Mississippi, University, Oxford, MS 38677, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    In this paper, we present a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for mainland Spain that takes into account recent new results in seismicity, seismic zoning, and strong ground attenuation not considered in the latest PSHA of the Spanish Building Code. Those new input data have been obtained as a three-step project carried out in order to improve the existing hazard map for mainland Spain. We have produced a new earthquake catalogue for the area, in which the earthquakes are given in moment magnitude through specific deduced relationships for our territory based on intensity data (Mezcua et al. in Seismol Res Lett 75:75–81, 2004 ). In addition, we included a new seismogenetic zoning based on the recent partial zoning studies performed by different authors. Finally, as we have developed a new strong ground motion model for the area García Blanco ( 2009 ), it was considered in the hazard calculation together with other attenuations gathered from different authors using data compatible with our region. With this new data, a logic tree process is defined to quantify the epistemic uncertainty related to those parts of the process. A sensitivity test has been included in order to analyze the different models of ground motion and seismotectonic zonation used in this work. Finally, after applying a weighting scheme, a mean hazard map for PGA, based on rock type condition for 10% exceedance probability in 50 years, is presented, including 15th and 85th percentile hazard maps. The main differences with the present official building code hazard map are analyzed. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-22 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9819-3 Authors Julio Mezcua, Instituto Geográfico Nacional, General Ibáñez de Ibero 3, 28003 Madrid, Spain Juan Rueda, Instituto Geográfico Nacional, General Ibáñez de Ibero 3, 28003 Madrid, Spain Rosa M. García Blanco, Departamento de Ingeniería Topográfica y Cartografía, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Campus Sur, Autovía de Valencia km 7.5, 28031 Madrid, Spain Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X