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  • 11
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    Simulating riparian disturbance: Reach-scale impacts on aquatic habitat in gravel bed streams (2015)
    Wiley
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    Publication Date: 2015-08-23
    Description: Large wood governs channel morphology, as well as the availability of in-stream habitat, in many forested streams. In this paper we use a stochastic, physically based model to simulate wood recruitment and in-stream geomorphic processes, in order to explore the influence of disturbance history on the availability of aquatic habitat. Specifically, we consider the effects of fire on a range of stream sizes by varying the rate of tree toppling over time in a simulated forest characterized by a tree height of 30 m. We also consider the effects of forest harvesting with various riparian buffer sizes, by limiting the lateral extent of the riparian stand. Our results show that pulsed inputs of wood increase the availability and variability of physical habitat in the post-fire period; reach-averaged pool area and deposit area double in small streams, while side-channels increase by over 50% in intermediate-sized channels. By contrast, forest harvesting reduces the availability of habitat within the reach, though the effects diminish with increasing buffer size or stream width; in laterally stable streams the effects are minimal so long as buffer width is large enough for key pieces to be recruited to the reach. This research emphasizes the importance of natural disturbance in creating and maintaining habitat heterogeneity and shows that scenario-based numerical modeling provides a useful tool for assessing the historical range of variability associated with natural disturbance, as well as changes in habitat relevant to fish. It can be also used to inform forest harvesting and management. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
    Print ISSN: 0043-1397
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-7973
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 12
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    Is unique scaling of aquifer macrodispersivity supported by field data? (2015)
    Wiley
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    Publication Date: 2015-08-23
    Description: Spreading of conservative solutes in groundwater due to aquifer heterogeneity is quantified by the macrodispersivity, which was found to be scale dependent. It increases with travel distance, stabilizing eventually at a constant value. However, the question of its asymptotic behaviour at very large scale is still a matter of debate. It was surmised in the literature that macrodispersivity scales up following a unique scaling law. Attempts to define such a law were made by fitting a regression line in the log-log representation of an ensemble of macrodispersivities from multiple experiments. The functional relationships differ among the authors, based on the choice of data. Our study revisits the data basis, used for inferring unique scaling, through a detailed analysis of literature marcodispersivities. In addition, values were collected from the most recent tracer tests reported in the literature. We specified a system of criteria for reliability and re-evaluated the reliability of the reported values. The final collection of reliable estimates of macrodispersivity does not support a unique scaling law relationship. On the contrary, our results indicate, that the field data can be explained as a collection of macrodispersivities of aquifers with varying degree of heterogeneity where each exhibits its own constant asymptotic value. Our investigation concludes that transport, and particularly the macrodispersivity, is formation-specific, and that modeling of transport cannot be relegated to a unique scaling law. Instead, transport requires characterization of aquifer properties, e.g. spatial distribution of hydraulic conductivity, and the use of adequate models. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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  • 13
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    On the limits of heat as a tracer to estimate reach-scale river-aquifer exchange flux (2015)
    Wiley
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    Publication Date: 2015-08-23
    Description: For the past few decades, heat has been used to estimate river-aquifer exchange flux at discrete locations by comparison of river and groundwater temperature. In recent years, heat has also been employed to estimate reach-scale river-aquifer exchange flux based only on river temperature. However, there are many more parameters that govern heat exchange and transport in surface water than in groundwater. In this study, we analyzed the sensitivities of surface water temperature to various parameters and assessed the accuracy of temperature-based estimates of exchange flux in two synthetic rivers and in a field setting. For the large synthetic river with a flow rate of 63 m 3 s −1 (i.e., 5.44 × 10 6 m 3 d −1 ), the upper and lower bounds of the groundwater inflow rate can be determined when the actual groundwater inflow is around 100 m 2 d −1 . For higher and lower fluxes, only minimum and maximum bounds respectively can be determined. For the small synthetic river with the flow rate of 0.63 m 3 s −1 (i.e., 5.44 × 10 4 m 3 d −1 ), the bounds of the groundwater inflow rate can only be estimated when the actual groundwater inflow rate is near 10 m 2 d −1 . In the field setting, results show that the inflow rate must be less than 100 m 2 d −1 , but a lower bound for groundwater inflow cannot be determined. The large ranges of estimated groundwater inflow rates in both theoretical and field settings indicate the need to reduce parameter errors and combine heat measurements with other isotopic and/or chemical methods. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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  • 14
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    Climate index weighting of ensemble streamflow forecasts using a simple Bayesian approach (2015)
    Wiley
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    Publication Date: 2015-08-23
    Description: Climate state can be an important predictor of future hydrologic conditions. In ensemble streamflow forecasting, where historical weather inputs or streamflow observations are used to generate the ensemble, climate index weighting is one way to represent the influence of climate state. Using a climate index, each forecast variable member of the ensemble is selectively weighted to reflect the climate state at the time of the forecast. A new approach to climate index weighting of ensemble forecasts is presented. The method is based on a sampling-resampling approach for Bayesian updating. The original hydrologic ensemble members define a sample drawn from the prior distribution; the relationship between the climate index and the ensemble member forecast variable is used to estimate a likelihood function. Given an observation of the climate index at the time of the forecast, the estimated likelihood function is then used to assign weights to each ensemble member. The weights define the probability of each ensemble member outcome given the observed climate index. The weighted ensemble forecast is then used to estimate the posterior distribution of the forecast variable conditioned on the climate index. The Bayesian climate index weighting approach is easy to apply to hydrologic ensemble forecasts; its parameters do not require calibration with hindcasts, and it adapts to the strength of the relation between climate and the forecast variable, defaulting to equal weighting of ensemble members when no relationship exists. A hydrologic forecasting application illustrates the approach and contrasts it with traditional climate index weighting approaches. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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  • 15
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    Whither field hydrology? The need for discovery science and outrageous hydrological hypotheses (2015)
    Wiley
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    Publication Date: 2015-08-15
    Description: Field hydrology is on the decline. Meanwhile, the need for new field-derived insight into the age, origin and pathway of water in the headwaters, where most runoff is generated, is more needed than ever. Water Resources Research (WRR) has included some of the most influential papers in field-based runoff process understanding, particularly in the formative years when the knowledge base was developing rapidly. Here, we take advantage of this 50 th anniversary of the journal to highlight a few of these important field-based papers and show how field scientists have posed strong and sometimes outrageous hypotheses—approaches so needed in an era of largely model-only research. We chronicle the decline in field work and note that it is not only the quantity of field work that is diminishing but its character is changing too: from discovery science to data collection for model parameterisation. While the latter is a necessary activity, the loss of the former is a major concern if we are to advance the science of watershed hydrology. We outline a vision for field research to seek new fundamental understanding, new mechanistic explanations of how watershed systems work, particularly outside the regions of traditional focus. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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  • 16
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    Linear functional minimization for inverse modeling (2015)
    Wiley
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    Publication Date: 2015-06-04
    Description: We present a novel inverse modeling strategy to estimate spatially distributed parameters of nonlinear models. The maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimators of these parameters are based on a likelihood functional, which contains spatially discrete measurements of the system parameters and spatio-temporally discrete measurements of the transient system states. The piecewise continuity prior for the parameters is expressed via Total Variation (TV) regularization. The MAP estimator is computed by minimizing a non-quadratic objective equipped with the TV operator. We apply this inversion algorithm to estimate hydraulic conductivity of a synthetic confined aquifer from measurements of conductivity and hydraulic head. The synthetic conductivity field is composed of a low-conductivity heterogeneous intrusion into a high-conductivity heterogeneous medium. Our algorithm accurately reconstructs the location, orientation and extent of the intrusion from the steady-state data only. Addition of transient measurements of hydraulic head improves the parameter estimation, accurately reconstructing the conductivity field in the vicinity of observation locations. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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  • 17
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    Ecohydrological modeling in agroecosystems: Examples and challenges (2015)
    Wiley
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    Publication Date: 2015-06-04
    Description: Human societies are increasingly altering the water and biogeochemical cycles to both improve ecosystem productivity and reduce risks associated with the unpredictable variability of climatic drivers. These alterations, however, often cause large negative environmental consequences, raising the question as to how societies can ensure a sustainable use of natural resources for the future. Here we discuss how ecohydrological modeling may address these broad questions with special attention to agroecosystems. The challenges related to modeling the two-way interaction between society and environment are illustrated by means of a dynamical model in which soil and water quality supports the growth of human society but is also degraded by excessive pressure, leading to critical transitions and sustained societal growth-collapse cycles. We then focus on the coupled dynamics of soil water and solutes (nutrients or contaminants), emphasizing the modeling challenges, presented by the strong nonlinearities in the soil and plant system and the unpredictable hydro-climatic forcing, that need to be overcome to quantitatively analyze problems of soil water sustainability in both natural and agricultural ecosystems. We discuss applications of this framework to problems of irrigation, soil salinization, and fertilization and emphasize how optimal solutions for large-scale, long-term planning of soil and water resources in agroecosystems under uncertainty could be provided by methods from stochastic control, informed by physically and mathematically sound descriptions of ecohydrological and biogeochemical interactions. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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  • 18
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    On the control of riverbed incision induced by run-of-river power plant (2015)
    Wiley
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    Publication Date: 2015-06-04
    Description: Water resource management (WRM) through dams or reservoirs is worldwide necessary to support key human-related activities, ranging from hydropower production to water allocation and flood risk mitigation. Designing of reservoir operations aims primarily to fulfil the main purpose (or purposes) for which the structure has been built. However, it is well known that reservoirs strongly influence river geomorphic processes, causing sediment deficits downstream, altering water and sediment fluxes, leading to river bed incision and causing infrastructure instability and ecological degradation. We propose a framework that, by combining physically based modelling, surrogate modelling techniques and Multi-Objective (MO) optimization, allows to include fluvial geomorphology into MO optimization whose main objectives is the maximization of hydropower revenue and the minimization of river bed degradation. The case study is a run-of-the-river power plant on the River Po (Italy). A 1D mobile-bed hydro-morphological model simulated the river bed evolution over a ten year horizon for alternatives operation rules of the power plant. The knowledge provided by such a physically based model is integrated into a MO optimization routine via surrogate modelling using the response surface methodology. Hence, this framework overcomes the high computational costs that so far hindered the integration of river geomorphology into WRM. We provided numerical proof that river morphologic processes and hydropower production are indeed in conflict, but that the conflict may be mitigated with appropriate control strategies. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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  • 19
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    An analytical framework for flood water conservation considering forecast uncertainty and acceptable risk (2015)
    Wiley
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    Publication Date: 2015-06-04
    Description: This paper addresses how much flood water can be conserved for use after the flood season through the operation of reservoir by taking into account the residual flood control capacity (the difference between flood conveyance capacity and the expected inflow in a lead time). A two-stage model for dynamic control of the flood limited water level (the maximum allowed water level during the flood season, DC-FLWL) is established considering forecast uncertainty and acceptable flood risk. It is found that DC-FLWL is applicable when the reservoir inflow ranges from small to medium levels of the historical records, while both forecast uncertainty and acceptable risk in the downstream affect the feasible space of DC-FLWL. As forecast uncertainty increases (under a given risk level) or as acceptable risk level decreases (under a given forecast uncertainty level), the minimum required safety margin for flood control increases, and the chance for DC-FLWL decreases. The derived hedging rules from the modeling framework illustrate either the dominant role of water conservation or flood control or the tradeoff between the two objectives under different levels of forecast uncertainty and acceptable risk. These rules may provide useful guidelines for conserving water from flood, especially in the area with heavy water stress. The analysis is illustrated via a case study with a real-world reservoir in northeastern China. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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  • 20
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    Time scale interactions and the coevolution of humans and water (2015)
    Wiley
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    Publication Date: 2015-08-05
    Description: We present a co-evolutionary view of hydrologic systems, revolving around feedbacks between environmental and social processes operating across different time scales. This brings to the fore an emphasis on emergent phenomena in changing water systems, such as the levee effect, adaptation to change, system lock-in, and system collapse due to resource depletion. Changing human values play a key role in the emergence of these phenomena and should therefore be considered as internal to the system. Guidance is provided for the framing and modeling of these phenomena to test alternative hypotheses about how they arose. A plurality of co-evolutionary models, from stylized to comprehensive system-of-system models, may assist strategic water management for long time scales through facilitating stakeholder participation, exploring the possibility space of alternative futures, and helping to synthesize the observed dynamics in a wide range of case studies. Future research opportunities lie in exploring emergent phenomena arising from time scale interactions through historical, comparative and process studies of human-water feedbacks. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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