ALBERT

Description: Urban heat island effect in Delhi has been assessed using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF v3.5) coupled with urban canopy model (UCM) focusing on air temperature and surface skin temperature. The estimated heat island intensities for different land use/land cover (LULC) have been compared with those derived from in situ and satellite observations. The model performs reasonably well for urban heat island intensity (UHI) estimation and is able to reproduce trend of UHI for urban areas. There is a significant improvement in model performance with inclusion of UCM which results in reduction in root mean-squared errors (RMSE) for temperatures from 1.63 °C (2.89 °C) to 1.13 °C (2.75 °C) for urban (non-urban) areas. Modification of LULC also improves performance for non-urban areas. High UHI zones and top 3 hotspots are captured well by the model. The relevance of selecting a reference point at the periphery of the city away from populated and built-up areas for UHI estimation is examined in the context of rapidly growing cities where rural areas are transforming fast into built-up areas, and reference site may not be appropriate for future years. UHI estimated by WRF model (with and without UCM) with respect to reference rural site compares well with the UHI based on observed in situ data. An alternative methodology is explored using a green area with minimum temperature within the city as a reference site. This alternative methodology works well with observed UHIs and WRF-UCM-simulated UHIs but has poor performance for WRF-simulated UHIs. It is concluded that WRF model can be applied for UHI estimation with classical methodology based on rural reference site. In general, many times WRF model performs satisfactorily, though WRF-UCM always shows a better performance. Hence, inclusion of appropriate representation of urban canopies and land use–land cover is important for improving predictive capabilities of the mesoscale models.

Description: This paper proposes the detection of dates for the onset and demise of the rainy season (ONR and DER, respectively) for some areas within the South American monsoon system (SAMS) region using procedures based on indices which could be easily calculated and subjected to very simple criterion. Previously, the time series of the averaged antisymmetric outgoing longwave radiation ([AOLR]) in each region of interest was used by some authors to detect ONR and DER. This method is referred to as OLD. First, it was proposed in this paper to smooth this time series with the five-pentad running mean ([RM_AOLR]). This modified method is called NEW. Then, an additional modification was adopted by smoothing the [AOLR] with the three-pentad running mean but with the [AOLR] in the most recent pentad being replaced by its climatological value ([RM_AOLRCLI]). This method is called NEW_CLI. For these methods, the criterion was that the first pentad with negative (positive) [AOLR] (or [RM_AOLR] or [RM_AOLRCLI]) is the ONR (DER) date in the region of interest. All these methods were applied for the Central Amazon (CAM) and Western-Central Brazil (WCB) regions during the rainy seasons in the 2001–2013 period. The efficiency of these methods was analyzed using the precipitation estimated from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis. The spatial average of the TRMM ([TRMM]) time series with threshold values, which depends on the area and season, was used to determine the ONR and DER dates. In this case, the single method based on the threshold value is called RAIN, and the method which considers the persistence of dry or wet condition is referred to as NEW_RAIN. Comparisons between the methods were performed by calculating the root mean square error (RMSE) when ONR and DER dates obtained from a given method were considered as the true dates. The advantages and disadvantages of the methods were discussed here. It was previously noted that the [AOLR] time series during the transition from dry (wet) to wet (dry) season showed several signs of oscillation. This was a weakness when detecting the ONR and DER dates; however, using the NEW and NEW_CLI methods eliminated this problem. The NEW_CLI method has more advantages than the other methods and will be useful for monitoring the ONR and DER dates of the SAMS regions.

Description: Nonlinear complexity is a characteristic of hydrologic processes. Using fewer model parameters is recommended to reduce error. This study investigates, and compares, the ability of gene expression programming (GEP) and artificial neural network (ANN) techniques in modeling ET 0 by using fewer meteorological parameters in the karst area of northwest Guangxi province, China. Over a 5-year period (2008–2012), meteorological data consisting of maximum and minimum air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and sunshine duration were collected from four weather stations: BaiSe, DuAn, HeChi, and RongAn. The ET 0 calculated by the FAO-56 PM equation was used as a reference to evaluate results for GEP, ANN, and Hargreaves models. The coefficient of determination ( R 2 ) and the root mean square error (RMSE) were used as statistical indicators. Evaluations revealed that GEP, and ANN, can be used to successfully model ET 0 . In most cases, when using the same input variables, ANN models were superior to GEP. We then established ET 0 equations with fewer parameters under various conditions. GEP can produce simple explicit mathematical formulations which are easier to use than the ANN models.

Description: The customary representation of climate using sample moments is generally biased due to the noticeably nonstationary behaviour of many climate series. In this study, we introduce a moment-free climate representation based on a statistical model fitted to a long-term daily air temperature anomaly series. This model allows us to separate the climate and weather scale variability in the series. As a result, the climate scale can be characterized using the mean annual cycle of series and local air temperature tolerance, where the latter is computed using the fitted model. The representation of weather scale variability is specified using the frequency and the range of outliers based on the tolerance. The scheme is illustrated using five long-term air temperature records observed by different European meteorological stations.

Description: The power spectrum of Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) has a peculiar dispersion relation and is well separated from the convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs). The authors present a theoretical model coupling the equatorial Rossby and Kelvin waves to understand this spectral feature of MJO. In this model, a delay process for triggering the deep convection from the additional planetary boundary layer (PBL) pumped moisture is implemented. This model has a moist Kelvin wave-like dispersion relation, and short waves grow fast when all moisture pumped by the PBL excites the deep convection instantly. When the moisture pumped by the PBL is delayed to stay in the lower troposphere for a time scale on the order of a day before triggering the deep convection, this model simulates a MJO-like mode, for which three features of the MJO, the peculiar dispersion relation, the horizontal quadrupole-vortex structure, and longest waves having maximum growth rate, have been simulated. Both moist Kelvin wave-like mode and MJO-like mode are simulated simultaneously when part of the deep convection is delayed, where the strong instability occurs at low-frequency long wavelength for the MJO-like mode and at high-frequency short wavelength for the moist Kelvin wave-like mode. These results suggest the importance of the delay process of deep convection in simulating the MJO.

Description: The annual cycle and interannual variability of stratification in Bay of Bengal (BoB) are studied using both observations and Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS) analysis during 2003–2012. Annual cycle of stratification and sea surface temperature (SST) evolve coherently, highlighting its role on modulating air-sea interaction over this climatologically important region. Spatial distribution of stratification shows strong seasonality in ARGO observations, whereas it is highly underestimated in GODAS with highest discrepancies during fall and spring. The annual cycle of sea surface salinity (SSS) in GODAS is out of phase with observations implying potential feedbacks. During La Niña years, SSS drop in fall and winter and are lesser than those reported during El Niño years. All these features are misrepresented in GODAS. As stratification modulates air-sea interaction over BoB especially during El Niño and La Niña years, such misrepresentation of ocean stratification may lead to unrealistic thermocline-SST coupling in the models. The mean stratification and its interannual variability in GODAS are weaker than observed even though interannual variability in freshwater flux (P-E) is higher in GODAS. Detailed analysis of GODAS with in situ observations reveals that upper ocean current shear (vertical) is overestimated in GODAS, leading to unrealistically strong mixing which is primarily responsible for the deeper penetration of surface warm and freshwater resulting weaker stratification. As GODAS is used to initialize the ocean component of the coupled forecasting system for seasonal prediction of Asian monsoon, proper representation of stratification is essential. This study advocates the need of accurate representation of upper ocean salinity in GODAS for improved stratification. We speculate that improved stratification and mixing in the BoB improve summer monsoon forecast.

Description: The generalization ability of artificial neural networks (ANNs) and M5 model tree (M5Tree) in modeling reference evapotranspiration ( ET 0 ) is investigated in this study. Daily climatic data, average temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, and relative humidity from six different stations operated by California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS) located in two different regions of the USA were used in the applications. King-City Oasis Rd., Arroyo Seco, and Salinas North stations are located in San Joaquin region, and San Luis Obispo, Santa Monica, and Santa Barbara stations are located in the Southern region. In the first part of the study, the ANN and M5Tree models were used for estimating ET 0 of six stations and results were compared with the empirical methods. The ANN and M5Tree models were found to be better than the empirical models. In the second part of the study, the ANN and M5Tree models obtained from one station were tested using the data from the other two stations for each region. ANN models performed better than the CIMIS Penman, Hargreaves, Ritchie, and Turc models in two stations while the M5Tree models generally showed better accuracy than the corresponding empirical models in all stations. In the third part of the study, the ANN and M5Tree models were calibrated using three stations located in San Joaquin region and tested using the data from the other three stations located in the Southern region. Four-input ANN and M5Tree models performed better than the CIMIS Penman in only one station while the two-input ANN models were found to be better than the Hargreaves, Ritchie, and Turc models in two stations.

Description: Scintillometer measurements of turbulent fluxes of momentum and sensible heat in the roughness sublayer over a regular array of cubes in an outdoor environment were tested with direct measurement from sonic anemometers. The dissipation rate, ε , and temperature structure parameter, C T 2 , obtained from the scintillometer agreed well with those from four sonic anemometers located along the scintillometer path. The fluxes measured by the scintillometer also corresponded well to those from the line-averaged eddy covariance approach, although this agreement was greatly influenced by the choice of the zero-plane displacement length and the form of the similarity function used in the scintillometer software. A guide for choosing the appropriate similarity function for the urban roughness sublayer is proposed.

Description: Knowledge on understanding quality of The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 V7 dataset over mid-high latitudes regions is limited, which restricts its potential application in climate and hydrology fields. This study focuses on giving a detailed evaluation of the accuracy of 3B42 with observation data obtained from a high density rain gauge network over the Hun-Tai Basin in Liaoning Province, northeast China during 1998–2006. Several accuracy statistics are used to evaluate it quantitatively in terms of error of precipitation amount and ability in detecting the occurrence of precipitation events. Comparative results for three timescales (daily, monthly, and annual scale) at the basin scale show that 3B42 is more suitable for analyzing precipitation at large timescale, especially monthly scale (strong correlation of 0.93) due to the use of monthly rain gauge observation for bias correction in producing 3B42. Yet, 3B42 generally overestimates precipitation at all three timescales, especially the most serious degree of overestimation at daily scale with the absolute bias of 123.94 % and light to moderate rain events (1–20 mm). Moreover, the performance is influenced by topography, and 3B42 has a larger error of precipitation amount but has a better detection of the occurrence of precipitation events over high-altitude region than those over low-altitude region. Also, accuracy of 3B42 decreases with precipitation intensity, it suggests that 3B42 is incapable of capturing heavy precipitation events with desirable accuracy for the study on extreme precipitation events. In following works, overestimation characteristic should be weaken by improving satellite-based precipitation estimations algorithms and developing more effective bias correction techniques, it is important for streamflow simulations using 3B42 as forcing data over ungauged regions.

Description: The objective of this paper is to examine the spatial distribution of several precipitation indexes in Sierra Nevada, Spain: mean annual number of wet days ( R  ≥ 1 mm), mean annual number of heavy rainy days ( R  ≥ 10 mm) and mean annual number of very heavy precipitation days ( R  ≥ 20 mm) and test the performance of several interpolation methods using these variables. In total, 17 univariate and multivariate methods were tested. A set of 36 metereological stations distributed in Sierra Nevada and neighbouring areas was analysed in this study. The original data did not followed the normal distribution; thus, a logarithm was applied to data meet normality purposes. Interpolator’s performance was assessed using the root mean square error generated from cross-validation. The results showed that the mean annual R  ≥ 10 mm and R  ≥ 20 mm have a higher variability than R  ≥ 1 mm. While the elevation and longitude did not show a significant correlation with the studied indexes, the latitude (i.e. distance to the sea) showed a significant negative correlation. The regressions carried out confirmed that elevation was the covariate with higher capacity to explain the variability of the indexes. The incorporation of elevation and longitude slightly increased the explanation capacity of the models. The data of LogR ≥ 1 mm, LogR ≥ 10 mm and LogR ≥ 20 mm displayed a clustered pattern, especially the last two indexes that also showed a strong spatial dependency attributed to the effects of local topography, slope, aspect and valley orientation. The best fitted variogram model to LogR ≥ 1 mm was the linear one while for the LogR ≥ 10 mm and LogR ≥ 20 mm, the Gaussian was the most appropriate. The best interpolator for LogR ≥ 1 mm was the local polinomyal with the power of 1, whereas for LogR ≥ 10 mm and LogR ≥ 20 mm, regression kriging (ROK) using as auxiliary variables the elevation, latitude and longitude was the most accurate. ROK methods significantly improved the interpolations accuracy, especially in LogR ≥ 10 mm and LogR ≥ 20 mm. Nevertheless, the covariates, when used as auxiliary information in ordinary kriging, did not improve the precision of the interpolation.

Description: Thirty years of total ozone column (TOC) measurements conducted by a Brewer spectrophotometer, operating in Thessaloniki (40.6°) since March 1982, have been analyzed using the statistical extreme value theory for the identification of extreme TOC events. About 12 % of the total number of days with TOC measurements were identified as extreme-low and ∼15 % as extreme-high events. The influence of the extreme-low events on the annual mean TOC values is up to ∼18 DU, while the extreme-high events show lower impact (up to 12 DU). Removing the extreme events from the time series results in smoother year-to-year variability and reduction of the small long-term linear trend (−0.08 %/year) by a factor of 2. Furthermore, we examined the impact of the extreme events on the noon erythemal irradiance under clear skies, and we provide evidence that even under extreme-low TOC conditions, the UV radiation levels are determined to a great extent by the aerosol optical depth. Although the influence of aerosols is evident during all seasons, for spring and summer, the sensitivity of UV radiation is larger, probably due to the different nature of the aerosols over Thessaloniki during these seasons.

Description: The STatistical Analogue Resampling Scheme (STARS) statistical approach was recently used to project changes of climate variables in Germany corresponding to a supposed degree of warming. We show by theoretical and empirical analysis that STARS simply transforms interannual gradients between warmer and cooler seasons into climate trends. According to STARS projections, summers in Germany will inevitably become dryer and winters wetter under global warming. Due to the dominance of negative interannual correlations between precipitation and temperature during the year, STARS has a tendency to generate a net annual decrease in precipitation under mean German conditions. Furthermore, according to STARS, the annual level of global radiation would increase in Germany. STARS can be still used, e.g., for generating scenarios in vulnerability and uncertainty studies. However, it is not suitable as a climate downscaling tool to access risks following from changing climate for a finer than general circulation model (GCM) spatial scale.

Description: We have recently suggested “long-term memory” or internal long-range correlation within the time-series of land-surface air temperature (LSAT) anomalies in both hemispheres. For example, an increasing trend in the LSAT anomalies is followed by another one at a different time in a power-law fashion. However, our previous research was mainly focused on the overall long-term persistence, while in the present study, the upward and downward scaling dynamics of the LSAT anomalies are analysed, separately. Our results show that no significant fluctuation differences were found between the increments and decrements in LSAT anomalies, over the whole Earth and over each hemisphere, individually. On the contrary, the combination of land-surface air and sea-surface water temperature anomalies seemed to cause a departure from symmetry and the increments in the land and sea surface temperature anomalies appear to be more persistent than the decrements.

Description: The summer surface urban heat island (SUHI) of the city of Bucharest (Romania) is investigated in terms of its shape, intensity, extension and links to land cover. The study employs land surface temperature (LST) data retrieved by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors aboard the Terra (EOS AM-1) and Aqua (EOS PM-1) NASA satellites, between 2000 and 2012. Based on the Rodionov regime shift index, the significant changing points in the land surface temperature values along transverse profiles crossing the city’s centre were considered as SUHI’s limits. The thermal difference between the SUHI and several surrounding buffers defines the SUHI’s intensity. The night-time SUHI’s geometry is more regular, and its intensity is slightly lower than during the day, while the land cover exerts a strong influence on Bucharest’s LST. In summary, the study proposes a methodology to delimit and quantify the average SUHI based on the statistical significance of the shift between the urban area and its surroundings, and the limitations of the method are mentioned.

Description: A large number of cities around the world are located in or near complex terrain. In these regions, urban breeze circulation and mountain/valley winds are observed. Understanding interactions between urban breeze circulation and mountain/valley winds is important in a view of mesoscale atmospheric dynamics and urban air pollution. In this study, we theoretically examine the interactions of urban breeze circulation with mountain slope winds in the context of the response of the atmosphere to specified thermal forcing. Starting from linearized governing equations in two dimensions, analytical solutions for perturbation vertical velocity, horizontal velocity, buoyancy, and kinematic pressure are obtained. Then, the analytical solutions are used to examine the interactions. Urban breeze circulation and mountain slope winds evolve with time due to time-varying thermal forcing that has steady and diurnal components, and they interact with each other. Asymmetric flows are developed over the urban and mountain areas. In the daytime, low-level converging flows induced by urban heating (urban breeze) and those induced by mountain heating (upslope winds) interfere with each other, resulting in weakened flows in the mountain-side urban area and on the urban-side mountain slope. The transition from the upslope wind to downslope wind on the urban-side mountain slope occurs earlier and thus the downslope wind persists longer compared with the case that has mountain thermal forcing only. In the nighttime, flows become strong in the region between the urban center and the mountain center due to the additive interaction of the downslope wind with the urban breeze, but the flow intensity weakens with time because of weak nighttime urban heating. In the nighttime, converging flows on the plain-side urban area and the downslope wind on the rural-side mountain slope are weakened. The degree of the interactions of urban breeze circulation with mountain slope winds is shown to depend on the intensities of urban and mountain thermal forcings.

Description: This study analyzed the effects of thermal differences between land and the sea on tropical cyclone (TC) activity. To this end, northern China in which thermal ridges appear in summer in the continent east of Asia was defined as “Land” and an area of the sea where temperatures are low in the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific was defined as “Sea” to analyze the time series of thermal differences between the land and the sea over the last 62 years. Change-point analysis was applied to these time series. According to the results, a significant climate regime shift existed in 1978. That is, positive values were distributed from 1951 to 1978 (5178) and negative values were distributed from 1979 to 2012 (7912). Thereafter, average differences between the 5178 period during which positive values were apparent and the 7912 period during which negative values were apparent was analyzed. With regard to TC genesis, TCs during the 7912 period showed a tendency of being mainly formed in the northwestern quadrant of the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, and those during the 5178 period showed a tendency of being mainly formed in the southeastern quadrant. With regard to TC movements, whereas TCs during the 7912 period showed a pattern of moving west from the Philippines toward the Indochina peninsular and southern China, those during the 5178 period showed a pattern of moving north from the far southeastern sea of the Philippines to pass the East China Sea and go toward Korea and Japan. Therefore, the TCs during the 7912 period showed a tendency of being formed and moving in regions further west than those of the TCs during the 5178 period. With regard to TC intensities during the two periods, TCs during the 5178 period were more intense. Large-scale environments that affected these changes in TC activity between the two periods were analyzed. During the 7912 period, since temperature in the continent were lower than those in the sea, anomalous anticyclones were reinforced in the continent East of Asia and anomalous cyclones were reinforced in the sea. Consequently, anomalous northerlies were reinforced in a region ranging from the middle-latitude region in East Asia to the Indochina peninsular so that TCs could not move to the middle-latitude region in East Asia but moved west toward the Indochina peninsular and southern China during this period. Eventually, during the 7912 period, temperatures in the land were higher than those in the sea to show the west high east low anomalous pressure system patterns so that western North Pacific subtropical highs could not develop and thus the steering flows of anomalous southerlies that would move TCs to the middle-latitude region in East Asia were weak. These results were identified from 600 hPa relative humidity, 200–850 hPa vertical wind shears, and differences in sea surface temperatures between the two periods.

Description: Artificial neural network (ANN) is an established technique with a flexible mathematical structure that is capable of identifying complex nonlinear relationships between input and output data. The present study utilizes ANN as a method of statistically downscaling global climate models (GCMs) during the rainy season at meteorological site locations in Bangkok, Thailand. The study illustrates the applications of the feed forward back propagation using large-scale predictor variables derived from both the ERA-Interim reanalyses data and present day/future GCM data. The predictors are first selected over different grid boxes surrounding Bangkok region and then screened by using principal component analysis (PCA) to filter the best correlated predictors for ANN training. The reanalyses downscaled results of the present day climate show good agreement against station precipitation with a correlation coefficient of 0.8 and a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.65. The final downscaled results for four GCMs show an increasing trend of precipitation for rainy season over Bangkok by the end of the twenty-first century. The extreme values of precipitation determined using statistical indices show strong increases of wetness. These findings will be useful for policy makers in pondering adaptation measures due to flooding such as whether the current drainage network system is sufficient to meet the changing climate and to plan for a range of related adaptation/mitigation measures.

Description: Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models can complement the satellite technology in simulating the cloud properties, especially in extreme storm events, when gathering new data becomes more than essential for accurate weather forecasting. In this study, we investigate the capability of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to realistically simulate some important cloud properties in high-resolution grids, such as cloud phase (e.g., liquid or ice) and cloud water path. The sensitivity of different combinations of physics parameterizations to the simulated cloud fields is studied. The experiment is conducted on a super typhoon event by configuring the WRF model in two domains, with two-way nesting, allowing bidirectional information exchange between the parent and the nest. In order to do the assessment, the simulated cloud fields are compared against MODIS-derived cloud properties from one overpass scene. While the simulations have been able to capture the spatial distribution of cloud properties reasonably well, produced cloud quantities such as ice water path has been significantly overestimated when compared to the MODIS optical cloud information. The microphysics parameterizations are found to be more sensitive than the planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations.

Description: Urbanization is an extreme way in which human being changes the land use/land cover of the earth surface, and anthropogenic heat release occurs at the same time. In this paper, the anthropogenic heat release parameterization scheme in the Weather Research and Forecasting model is modified to consider the spatial heterogeneity of the release; and the impacts of land use change and anthropogenic heat release on urban boundary layer structure in the Pearl River Delta, China, are studied with a series of numerical experiments. The results show that the anthropogenic heat release contributes nearly 75 % to the urban heat island intensity in our studied period. The impact of anthropogenic heat release on near-surface specific humidity is very weak, but that on relative humidity is apparent due to the near-surface air temperature change. The near-surface wind speed decreases after the local land use is changed to urban type due to the increased land surface roughness, but the anthropogenic heat release leads to increases of the low-level wind speed and decreases above in the urban boundary layer because the anthropogenic heat release reduces the boundary layer stability and enhances the vertical mixing.

Description: The surface air temperature during the winter season (December–February) in India adversely affects agriculture as well as day-to-day life. Therefore, the accurate prediction of winter temperature in extended range is of utmost importance. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) has been providing climatic variables from the fully coupled global climate model, known as Climate Forecast System version 1 (CFSv1) on monthly to seasonal scale since 2004, and it has been upgraded to CFSv2 subsequently in 2011. In the present study, the performance of CFSv1 and CFSv2 in simulating the winter 2 m maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures ( T max , T min , and T mean , respectively) over India is evaluated with respect to India Meteorological Department (IMD) 1° × 1° observations. The hindcast data obtained from both versions of CFS from 1982 to 2009 (27 years) with November initial conditions (lead-1) are used. The analyses of winter ( T max , T min , and T mean ) temperatures revealed that CFSv1 and CFSv2 are able to replicate the patterns of observed climatology, interannual variability, and coefficient of variation with a slight negative bias. Of the two, CFSv2 is appreciable in capturing increasing trends of winter temperatures like observed. The T max , T min , and T mean correlations from CFSv2 is significantly high (0.35, 0.53, and 0.51, respectively), while CFSv1 correlations are less (0.29, 0.15, and 0.12) and insignificant. This performance of CFSv2 may be due to the better estimation of surface heat budget terms and realistic CO2 concentration, which were absent in CFSv1. CFSv2 proved to have a high probability of detection in predicting different categories (below, near, and above normal) for winter T min , which are required for crop yield and public utility services, over north India.

Description: The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between the frequency of very warm days (TX90p) in Romania and large-scale atmospheric circulation for winter (December–February) and summer (June–August) between 1962 and 2010. In order to achieve this, two catalogues from COST733Action were used to derive daily circulation types. Seasonal occurrence frequencies of the circulation types were calculated and have been utilized as predictors within the multiple linear regression model (MLRM) for the estimation of winter and summer TX90p values for 85 synoptic stations covering the entire Romania. A forward selection procedure has been utilized to find adequate predictor combinations and those predictor combinations were tested for collinearity. The performance of the MLRMs has been quantified based on the explained variance. Furthermore, the leave-one-out cross-validation procedure was applied and the root-mean-squared error skill score was calculated at station level in order to obtain reliable evidence of MLRM robustness. From this analysis, it can be stated that the MLRM performance is higher in winter compared to summer. This is due to the annual cycle of incoming insolation and to the local factors such as orography and surface albedo variations. The MLRM performances exhibit distinct variations between regions with high performance in wintertime for the eastern and southern part of the country and in summertime for the western part of the country. One can conclude that the MLRM generally captures quite well the TX90p variability and reveals the potential for statistical downscaling of TX90p values based on circulation types.

Description: The impacts of the summer plateau monsoon (PM) over the Tibetan Plateau on summer rainfall over the Tarim Basin in northwest China are investigated, based on the observed rainfall data at 34 stations and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data during 1961 to 2007. Results showed that the PM is well correlated to the summer rainfall over the Tarim Basin. Process analysis shows that strong PM corresponds to an anomalous cyclone over the Tibetan Plateau in the middle troposphere and an anomalous anticyclone in the upper troposphere over northwest part of Tibetan Plateau. They result in cold air moving from high latitudes into Central Asia over the western part of Tibetan Plateau. The concurrences of the cooling in the middle-upper troposphere over Central Asia leads to an anomalous cyclone over Central Asia at 500 hPa and the anomalous descending motions prevailing over the cooling region. Associated with this anomaly, there are enhanced southerly winds and corresponding ascending motion over the Tarim Basin located in the east of the cooling region. These processes lead to more summer rainfall over the Tarim Basin.

Description: Soil temperature is an important factor within the climate system. Changes of trends in soil temperature and analysis of vulnerability due to heat stress can provide useful information on climate change. In this paper, the soil temperature regime was analyzed on seasonal and annual scales at depths of 2, 5, 10, 20, 30, and 50 cm at 26 sites in Croatia. Trends of maximal, mean, and minimal soil temperatures were analyzed in the periods 1961–2010 and 1981–2010. Duration of extreme soil temperatures and vulnerability due to high or low soil temperatures in the recent standard period 1981–2010 was compared with the reference climate period 1961–1990. The results show a general warming in all seasons and depths for maximal and mean temperatures in both observed periods, while only at some locations for minimal soil temperature. Warming is more pronounced in the eastern and coastal parts of Croatia in the surface layers, especially in the spring and summer season in the second period. Significant trends of maximal, minimal, and mean soil temperature in both observed periods range from 2.3 to 6.6 °C/decade, from −1.0 to 1.3 °C/decade, and from 0.1 to 2.5 °C/decade, respectively. The highest vulnerability due to heat stress at 35 °C is noted in the upper soil layers of the coastal area in both observed periods. The mountainous and northwestern parts of Croatia at surface soil layers are the most vulnerable due to low soil temperature below 0 °C. Vulnerability due to high or low soil temperature decreases with depth.

Description: The turbulence spectra and energy budget were investigated based on eddy covariance method over an open-water highland lake (Erhai Lake) in Southwest China. We estimated the annual total evaporation and CO 2 emission from the lake, and the evaporation trend in the past few decades was also discussed. Due to the large thermal inertia of lake water, the surface water temperature lagged behind the air temperature. Maximum lake-air temperature difference of about 4 °C had been observed in November. Water temperature profile measurements revealed that the stratification of lake water was not evident throughout the year. The spectra and cospectra of wind speed and temperature roughly satisfied the −2/3 and −4/3 rule in inertial subrange, respectively. The w spectra were observed to have a larger contribution from higher frequencies than other variables. Obvious shifts of spectra and cospectra peaks toward higher frequencies were observed as the atmospheric stratification became more stable. The lake acted as a heat sink from March through June and quickly released heat into the atmosphere from September through December. Average energy balance closure for the lake was about 80 % in 2012. The lake majorly acted as a source of CO 2 to the atmosphere, but weak sinks of CO 2 were observed in the summer and early fall. The total annual emission of CO 2 was estimated to be 333.28 g C m −2  year −1 . The annual evaporation over the lake decreased due to the increased amount of low cloud and precipitation, with the lower annual evaporation in the 1990s compared to that in the 1980s.

Description: Atlantic and Mediterranean air masses influence the climate over the Iberian System mountain range. The relatively short instrumental records in central Spain though limit any long-term assessment of these synoptic systems. We here evaluate the potential to analyze such changes using ring width data from Juniperus thurifera trees growing in the northwestern and southeastern regions of the Iberian System, exposed to Atlantic and Mediterranean cyclonic activity, respectively. Comparison of tree rings with regional precipitation, temperature, and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) data indicates that juniper trees contain information on late spring and early summer drought conditions. Calibration trials using spatially resolved, gridded climate data reveal that the northwestern sampling site is predominantly controlled by Atlantic weather, while the southeastern site mainly reflects Mediterranean climate patterns. The strength and position of the blocking Azores high during spring to early summer is of particular importance for the distinct growth reactions in the Iberian System. The climate signal is remarkably strong in the southeastern site, where we developed the longest and best-replicated juniper tree ring record of the Iberian Peninsula. Data from this site allowed the reconstruction of May-June PDSI variability back to the early eighteenth century, indicating severe drought (PDSI 〈 −9) in southeastern Spain in 1782, 1828, 1869, 1981, and 2005. The new PDSI record coheres well with historical rogation ceremony data from eastern Spain, indicating that common information on past drought events is inherent in both proxy archives.

Description: The diurnal cycle of convective storm events is investigated in the study with the help of C-band radar reflectivity data during the Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment (CAIPEEX 2011) in combination with other ground-based observations. A threshold reflectivity of 25 dBZ is used to identify the initiation of storms. Observations from collocated sensors such as a microwave radiometer profiler, water vapor measurement from eddy covariance system, and wind lidar measurements are used to investigate the characteristic features and diurnal cycle of convectively initiated storms from 21st September to 5th November 2011. The maximum reflectivity follows a normal distribution with a mean value of 40 dBZ. The cloud depth over the domain varied between 5 and 15 km corresponding to a range of reflectivity of 30–50 dBZ values. In the diurnal cycle, double maximum in the precipitation flux is noted—one during the afternoon hours associated with the diurnal heating and the other in the nocturnal periods. The nocturnal precipitation maximum is attributed to initiation of several single-cell storms (of congestus type) with a duration that is larger than the storms initiated during the daytime. The convective available potential energy (CAPE) showed a diurnal variation and was directly linked with the surface level water vapor content. The high CAPE favored single storms with a reflectivity 〉40 dBZ and higher echo top heights. In the evening or late night hours, a nocturnal low-level jet present over the location together with the reduced stability above the cloud base favored enhancement of low-level moisture, CAPE, and further initiation of new convection. The study illustrated how collocated observations could be used to study storm initiation and associated thermodynamic features.

Description: Historical temperature and precipitation extremes and their potential future changes are quantified and evaluated throughout the landmass of China. A statistical model of climate extremes based on generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is applied to both historical climate data and bias correction and spatial disaggregation (BCSD) downscaled Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) projections. The results indicate relatively moderate historical warm extreme conditions in China with regional means of maximum temperature 28.9, 29.4, and 29.8 °C for 10-, 20-, and 50-year return periods, respectively, whereas the corresponding regional means of minimum temperature are −20.1, −20.8, and −21.5 °C, manifesting a downward trend northwardly with relative larger regional variations in cold extremes. The historical precipitation extremes also decline gradually from south-southeast toward northwest with significant regional differences. As for the future, the warm extremes are expected to aggravate by roughly 1.66–4.92 °C projected by CMIP5, indicating larger increasing rate and spatial differences compared to cold extremes. The extreme precipitation is projected to increase 7.9–13.4 %, the dry regions would see a larger increasing rate compared to wet regions. The increasing radiative forcing concentration would trigger upward variations in both temperature and precipitation extreme magnitudes. Also, the warm extreme changes are more sensitive to the radiative forcing concentration than the cold extremes. The CMIP5 projections basically maintain a favorable inter-model consistency in temperature and rainfall extreme simulation for the future, but the inter-model difference of warm extremes is larger than cold extremes.

Description: A suite of high-resolution (10 km) simulations were performed with the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) to study the effect of various lateral boundary conditions (LBCs), domain size, and intermediate domains on simulated precipitation over the Great Alpine Region. The boundary conditions used were ECMWF ERA-Interim Reanalysis with grid spacing 0.75 ∘ , the ECMWF ERA-40 Reanalysis with grid spacing 1.125 and 2.5 ∘ , and finally the 2.5 ∘ NCEP/DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis. The model was run in one-way nesting mode with direct nesting of the high-resolution RCM (horizontal grid spacing Δx = 10 km) with driving reanalysis, with one intermediate resolution nest (Δx = 30 km) between high-resolution RCM and reanalysis forcings, and also with two intermediate resolution nests (Δx = 90 km and Δx = 30 km) for simulations forced with LBC of resolution 2.5 ∘ . Additionally, the impact of domain size was investigated. The results of multiple simulations were evaluated using different analysis techniques, e.g., Taylor diagram and a newly defined useful statistical parameter, called Skill-Score, for evaluation of daily precipitation simulated by the model. It has been found that domain size has the major impact on the results, while different resolution and versions of LBCs, e.g., 1.125 ∘ ERA40 and 0.7 ∘ ERA-Interim, do not produce significantly different results. It is also noticed that direct nesting with reasonable domain size, seems to be the most adequate method for reproducing precipitation over complex terrain, while introducing intermediate resolution nests seems to deteriorate the results.

Description: In cities located in concave landforms, urban heat island (UHI) is an element of a complicated thermal structure and occurs due to the common impact of urban built-up areas and orography-induced processes like katabatic flows or air temperature inversions. Kraków, Poland (760,000 inhabitants) is located in a large valley of the river Vistula. In the years 2009–2013, air temperature was measured with the 5-min sampling resolution at 21 urban and rural points, located in various landforms. Cluster analysis was used to process data for the night-time. Sodar and synoptic data analysis provided results included in the definition of the four types of night-time thermal structure representing the highest and the lowest spatial air temperature variability and two transitional types. In all the types, there are three permanent elements which show the formation of the inversion layer, the cold air reservoir and the UHI peak zone. As the impact of land use and relief on air temperature cannot be separated, a concept of relief-modified UHI (RMUHI) was proposed as an alternative to the traditional UHI approach. It consists of two steps: (1) recognition of the areal thermal structure taking into consideration the city centre as a reference point and (2) calculation of RMUHI intensity separately for each vertical zone.

Description: Transitional behavior of wetness/dryness regimes is investigated using the standardized precipitation/runoff indices (SPI-SRI) and the Markov chain model, and wetness/drought conditions are predicted. Results indicate that (1) the wetness/drought hazards have large negative impacts during initial conditions in the Xiuhe River Basin and manifest their negative impacts during the development condition of the wetness/droughts in the Fuhe and Xiuhe River Basins; in the Ganjiang and Raohe River Basins, however, droughts have their greatest impacts during the lasting time intervals, (2) the occurrence of meteorological or hydrological droughts/floods individually is subject to very low probability, implying close relations between meteorological and hydrological conditions within the Poyang Lake Basin, and (3) an abrupt shift between hydrometeorological wetness and dryness events is identified, specifically in northwest and northeast parts of the Poyang Lake Basin, which could be due to intensifying precipitation regimes in these regions under the influence of increasing temperature. The prediction of droughts indicates that the transitional probability from the second condition to the hydrological drought is the lowest and the transitional probability from the first (or third) condition to the fourth condition is the largest. Results of this study will be of value for developing measures for mitigation of droughts in a changing environment.

Description: This paper aims to model the occurrence of daily precipitation extreme events and to estimate the return period of these events through the extreme value theory (generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) and the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD)). The GEV and GPD were applied in precipitation series of homogeneous regions of the Brazilian Amazon. The GEV and GPD goodness of fit were evaluated by quantile–quantile (Q-Q) plot and by the application of the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test, which compares the cumulated empirical distributions with the theoretical ones. The Q-Q plot suggests that the probability distributions of the studied series are appropriated, and these results were confirmed by the KS test, which demonstrates that the tested distributions have a good fit in all sub-regions of Amazon, thus adequate to study the daily precipitation extreme event. For all return levels studied, more intense precipitation extremes is expected to occur within the South sub-regions and the coastal area of the Brazilian Amazon. The results possibly will have some practical application in local extreme weather forecast.

Description: Information about soil frost penetration depth can be effective in finding appropriate solutions to reduce the agricultural crop damage, transportations, and building facilities. Amongst proper methods to achieve this information are the statistical and empirical models capable of estimating soil frost penetration depth. Therefore, the main objective of this research is to calculate soil frost penetration depth in northwest of Iran during the year 2007–2008 to validate two different models accuracy. To do so, the relationship between air and soil temperature in different depths (5-10-20-30-50-100 cm) at three times of the day (3, 9, and 15 GMT) for 14 weather stations over 7 provinces was analyzed using linear regression. Then, two different air freezing indices (AFIs) including Norwegian and Finn AFI was implemented. Finally, the frost penetration depth was calculated by McKeown method and the accuracy of models determined by actual soil frost penetration depth. The results demonstrated that there is a significant correlation between air and soil depth temperature in all studied stations up to the 30 cm under the surface. Also, according to the results, Norwegian index can be effectively used for determination of soil frost depth penetration and the correlation coefficient between actual and estimated soil frost penetration depth is r  = 0.92 while the Finn index overestimates the frost depth in all stations with correlation coefficient r  = 0.70.

Description: The natural ecosystem in Central Asia is sensitive and vulnerable to the arid and semiarid climate variations, especially the climate extreme events. However, the climate extreme events in this area are still unclear. Therefore, this study analyzed the climate variability in the temperature and precipitation extreme events in an alpine grassland (Bayanbuluk) of Central Asia based on the daily minimum temperature, daily maximum temperature, and daily precipitation from 1958 to 2012. Statistically significant ( p  〈 0.01) increasing trends were found in the minimum temperature, maximum temperature at annual, and seasonal time scales except the winter maximum temperature. In the seasonal changes, the winter temperature had the largest contribution to the annual warming. Further, there appeared increasing trends for the warm nights and the warm days and decreasing trends for the cool nights and the cool days at a 99 % confidence level. These trends directly resulted in an increasing trend for the growing season length (GSL) which could have positively influence on the vegetation productivity. For the precipitation, it displayed an increasing trend for the annual precipitation although it was not significant. And the summer precipitation had the same variations as the annual precipitation which indicated that the precipitation in summer made the biggest contribution to the annual precipitation than the other three seasons. The winter precipitation had a significant increasing trend (1.49 mm/10a) and a decreasing trend was found in spring. We also found that the precipitation of the very wet days mainly contributes to the annual precipitation with the trend of 4.5 mm/10a. The maximum 1-day precipitation and the heavy precipitation days only had slight increasing trend. A sharp decreasing trend was found before the early 1980s, and then becoming increase for the above three precipitation indexes. The climate experienced a warm-wet abrupt climate change in the 1980s. Further, this tendency may be continuous into the future.

Description: Numerous studies analyze the temperature variations in the Mediterranean area due to the anticipated impact of climate change in this part of the world. A number of studies examined the temperature climate in Greece, but few are based on a large number of synoptic stations covering all regions and climatic zones and even fewer are based on homogenized data set series, despite the fact that climatological studies must use high-quality homogeneous data series. The present work reviews previous studies dealing with climatic changes in Greece and addresses changes of mean air temperature, based on a large set of homogenized data from 52 synoptic stations. A statistically significant negative trend during 1960–1976 and a positive one during 1977–2004 were revealed. During 1960–1976, the lowest negative annual temperature trend is observed in Crete. During 1977–2004, the northern region of Greece was characterized by prominent annual warming, whereas the north and central Aegean Sea and the semi-mountainous area were characterized by the lowest warming. All stations are characterized by high seasonal trends in summer; the most extreme trends are observed in the northern and eastern regions and in the Attica area. Positive temperature trends occur from May to October, while negative trends dominate from November to February. The most pronounced warming is recorded in June and July, and the most strongly decreasing trend occurs in November. Annual temperature trends in northern Greece follow the hemispheric pattern, and the overall summer warming in Greece is greater than the hemisphere’s.

Description: In this study, the changes of long-term mean annual water levels of the Great Lakes in North America are investigated, including the potential impacts of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The levels of Lakes Superior, Michigan-Huron, St. Clair, Erie and Ontario and the hydro-climatic data, such as precipitation, evaporation and runoff, are evaluated together in view of the influence of NAO. The changes in the lake levels and hydro-climatic indicators are analysed. The annual hydro-climatic data, annual mean lake levels and the NAO indices are nondimensionalized through the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test. Then, the sequential Mann-Kendall test and paired t test are performed to gain insight into the trends of the time series and possible turning points. As a result of this study, the trend direction changes for all of the lakes are determined in the years 1965 and 1987, based on the records of the last 95 years. A similar tendency for evaporation, precipitation and runoff is found in 1982, 1935 and 1965. Regarding the effect of North Atlantic Oscillation on the changes of the lake levels, the same directional variations are found between the lake levels and the NAO FMA (February-March-April) indices. However, the directional variations between the lake levels and NAO JJA (June-July-August) indices are reversed. The absolute values of the correlation coefficients increase from west to east (from Lake Superior to Lake Ontario).

Description: Dry spell lengths, DSL, defined as the number of consecutive days with daily rain amounts below a given threshold, may provide relevant information about drought regimes. Taking advantage of a daily pluviometric database covering a great extension of Europe, a detailed analysis of the multifractality of the dry spell regimes is achieved. At the same time, an autoregressive process is applied with the aim of predicting DSL. A set of parameters, namely Hurst exponent, H , estimated from multifractal spectrum, f ( α ), critical Hölder exponent, α 0 , for which f ( α ) reaches its maximum value, spectral width, W , and spectral asymmetry, B , permits a first clustering of European rain gauges in terms of the complexity of their DSL series. This set of parameters also allows distinguishing between time series describing fine- or smooth-structure of the DSL regime by using the complexity index, CI. Results of previous monofractal analyses also permits establishing comparisons between smooth-structures, relatively low correlation dimensions, notable predictive instability and anti-persistence of DSL for European areas, sometimes submitted to long droughts. Relationships are also found between the CI and the mean absolute deviation, MAD, and the optimum autoregressive order, OAO, of an ARIMA( p , d ,0) autoregressive process applied to the DSL series. The detailed analysis of the discrepancies between empiric and predicted DSL underlines the uncertainty over predictability of long DSL, particularly for the Mediterranean region.

Description: This study presents a statistical approach for assessing meteorological hazards based on trends and abrupt changes in precipitation characteristics. Daily rainfall data from 64 stations in South Korea (SK) and 27 stations in North Korea (NK) were used to identify temporal patterns in the rainfall characteristics of both regions using seven rainfall indices, such as the total annual rainfall and annual number of wet days. This study suggests the use of three steps in identifying meteorological hazards based on two statistical analyses. In step 1, we conducted a trend analysis of a 10-year moving average of the rainfall index using the Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test. Most stations (65.6 %) in SK exhibit clear increasing trends in five indices, whereas far fewer have data indicating any trends in five of the indices in NK (25.9 %). In step 2, abrupt changes in all rainfall indices were identified using a Bayesian Change Point (BCP) approach. The results contradict those from the MK trend analysis. The proportion of stations in NK where trends were identified is much higher than that in SK. In step 3, the results from the two previous steps were integrated to identify the meteorological hazards based on the identified trend and change point. The BCP approach can be used to identify meteorological hazards that MK cannot, as the former approach focuses on the change point during the entire period. As a result, meteorological stability at the sites of weather stations can be identified, and then the meteorological hazards across the entire Korean peninsula can be spatially interpolated. Although SK and NK are located on the same peninsula, distinct differences in the trends were observed.

Description: Different rainfall parameters are analysed in the present work in order to describe precipitation in three Argentine reference stations. These locations represent their precipitation climate region through a centenary data record. The selected parameters are annual accumulated precipitation, number of days with precipitation and precipitation intensity. All three stations indicate a positive trend in the first two variables over the studied period; moreover, because of a proportional increase, the precipitation intensity parameter has no significant variability. From the analysis of these variables and applying statistical methods, a climatic jump is found in each station, around the 1950s. A second focus of this work is the analysis of rain spells. To this end, a cutoff value for each station is found and used so as to establish the relationship between the accumulated precipitation and the frequency of rain spells per year. The total number of rain spells follows an exponential decay function for their relative frequency, considering the number of days that constitutes them. Rain spell characterisation allows for the understanding of their contribution to precipitation, according with its duration.

Description: Aerosol and cloud parameters are known to be the influencing factors of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) variability at interannual and intraseasonal scales. In this study, we investigate the impact of remotely sensed aerosol optical depth and associated parameters (cloud fraction, cloud optical depth, cloud effective radii, cloud top pressure, and single-scattering albedo) on the individual active (break) spells of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) season. Active and break spells are identified using satellite-derived data sets over the central Indian (CI) region. The present analysis suggests that the CI region is loaded with higher aerosol concentration and that rainfall is significantly negatively correlated with aerosol optical depth (significant at 1 % significance level) over CI. Contrary to the composite-based previous studies, it has been observed that the aerosol loading and cloud properties are considerably different during the individual active and break events. For break events, composite representation shows that aerosols are stacked along the Himalayan region while all individual break events do not portray this type of aerosol dispensation. It appears from the present analysis that the aerosols may impact the intraseasonal variability of ISMR through its indirect effect by altering the cloud properties and consequently the rainfall. Therefore, aerosols are supposed to be a regional contributor in affecting the intraseasonal variability of summer monsoon rainfall.

Description: Investigating changes in extreme precipitation, i.e., maximum precipitation for multiday events, is critical for flood management and risk assessment. Based on the observed daily precipitation from China’s Ground Precipitation 0.5° × 0.5° Gridded Dataset (V2.0) and simulated daily precipitation from five general circulation models (GCMs) provided by The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), extreme precipitation indices corresponding to annual maximum 1-, 3-, 15-, and 30-day precipitation across China from 1961 to 2011 and 2011 to 2050 were calculated. Relative changes in the 10-, 20-, and 50-year return period estimates, using 1-, 3-, 15-, and 30-day precipitation, are discussed to represent changes in extreme precipitation in the future. Results show that (1) the spatial distribution of annual maximum precipitation for 1, 3, 15, and 30 days is similar with that of annual precipitation. An increasing trend from the northwest to the southeast was found, with the highest values shown to be in the plain region adjacent to the mountains and coastal area; (2) Comparing the observed and simulated data, it could be seen that climate models have good simulation of 10-, 20-, and 50-year return period events. Absolute relative error is less than 30 % in 80 % in the study area; (3) Extreme precipitation in the future has an increasing trend in China. In the south, extreme precipitation associated with short duration as well as the 50-year return period will likely increase to a comparatively large degree in the future. In the north, extreme precipitation associated with long duration and the 10-year return period will likely see a large increase in the future.

Description: Temperature inversions (TIs) have been closely studied for a variety of reasons. Here, we present an analysis of low-level TIs, based on a dataset of atmospheric soundings from the aerological station at Prague-Libuš (Czech Republic). Measurements have been carried out here since 1974, at the four main synoptic hours. First, the homogeneity of both the radiosonde data and sounding-derived time series was investigated. Since the homogeneity of the derived time series was affected by changes in the observation routine, only the period of 1992–2012 was further analysed. Second, diurnal and annual regimes of surface-based (SBTIs) and elevated (ETIs) temperature inversions were described. Maximum frequency of the SBTIs occurred at 00 UTC and in September and October. During autumn, persistent SBTIs also often occurred, which could be linked to decreased cyclonicity. Third, changes in TIs were evaluated, and the strongest trends were compared with the nearby station at Kümmersbruck (Germany). In all seasons except spring, nocturnal SBTIs decreased almost identically at both stations. Morning SBTIs decreased as well; however, the trend was considerably stronger at Prague; and it was also mirrored by an increase in ETIs. Since only a part of these trends could be explained by changes in the large-scale circulation, other factors (low tropospheric warming, suburbanisation) are hypothesized to have affected the trends.

Description: Based on daily air temperature data from 745 stations in China, the present study investigates the regional characteristics of temperature trend and the dependence of temperature changes on the altitude during the period of 1963–2012. There is a consistent warming trend throughout the country except for the southwest China where a cooling trend is identified. Moreover, significant warming trend exists in highland areas such as the Northeast, Inner Mongol, and the Tibet region. Compared with other seasons, the warming trend is most pronounced in highland regions in winter. In summer, the temperature has no obvious increasing trend in north China, while the cooling trend is found in south China. The relationship between altitude and temperature trend is further investigated by dividing China into three subregions according to the altitude—below 200, 200–2,000, and above 2,000 m. Although there is no simple linear relationship between elevation and warming trend on national scale, the temperature trend–altitude relation is different among the three regions. The temperature trend decreases with altitude below 200 m while increases from 200 to 2,000 m, and a weak positive temperature trend–altitude relation is found over 2,000 m. The strongest temperature trend–altitude relations are found in the subtropical regions, especially pronounced south of 36°N in China. The magnitudes of decreases from 200 to 2,000 m are one order lower than the increases below 200 m. Low-altitude stations appear to be influenced more by anthropogenic aerosols. High-altitude stations are mostly located in flat terrain and sparsely populated region. Therefore, temperature trends change with elevations.

Description: This study analyzed changes in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity for the past 62 years (1951–2012) by calculating annual average value of central pressure (CP) of TCs that affected the Philippines from July to September. Although TC intensity slightly weakened for the last 62 years, it was not statistically significant. In order to examine the causes of changes in intensity of TCs that influenced the Philippines, nine low CP years and nine high CP years among the 62 years were selected to analyze differences between the two groups. TCs largely occurred in the southeastern quadrant of tropical and subtropical western North Pacific during low CP years and tended to move to the Philippines from the far sea in the southeast of the nation. In differences in deep-layer-mean wind between the two groups, western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) did not develop toward the middle latitudes of East Asia but toward the low latitudes of the region during low CP years. Therefore, TCs occurred in the southeastern quadrant of tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, triggering its movement of long distance westward toward the Philippines. As positive anomalies in precipitable water and at 600 hPa relative humidity, 850 hPa air temperature, and sea surface temperature continued to the Philippines from the southeastern quadrant, a favorable environment where intensity of TCs can be strengthened while they move to the Philippines during low CP years has been formed. In the end, because WNPSH developed toward the low latitudes during low CP years, anomalous easterlies that strengthened in the southern regions of WNPSH blew to the Philippines, and SST in the sea near the nation was heightened. Therefore, because TCs were able to obtain sufficient energy from the relatively warm sea while TCs moved a long distance to the Philippines, TC intensity was able to be strengthened.

Description: The paper presents a country-wide trend analysis in seasonal air temperature, precipitation, sunshine hours and wind speed over the 1961–2013 period. Changes in annual temperature and precipitation extremes are also investigated by means of 14 indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The air temperature and the number of sunshine hours present significant increasing trends in winter, spring and summer; the precipitation amount is rather stable, with increasing trends in autumn and decreasing trends in the other seasons, at few locations. The wind speed shows downward trends in all seasons, in agreement with the tendency of the terrestrial stilling. The annual thermal extremes show decreasing trends for the cold-related indices and increasing trends for the warm-related ones, with the warming signal being consistent over the region. The most striking results concern the number of summer days which is increasing at 95 % of the stations and the duration of warm spells increasing at 83 % of the stations. The annual precipitation extremes show mixed signals in all eight indices, with the majority of the stations presenting no significant trends. Our findings are in good agreement with recent studies on climatic variability in the region.

Description: This paper investigates patterns of daily evolutions of CO 2 in the lower atmosphere at a rural site over 2 years. The first part is devoted to observation analysis using a clustering procedure. However, direct application of the average-linkage method yielded undesirable results. In order to improve this procedure, data were previously processed using three smoothing procedures: the kernel smoothing method, the elliptical procedure, and the second-order cylindrical model. These procedures successfully revealed that clusters were based on daily concentration and range. However, the unequal distribution of frequencies in the clusters proved to be a noticeable disadvantage. Four alternative and simpler schemes for grouping observations were proposed in the second part of this paper. The first, comprising groups following fixed values of daily range and mean concentration, provided a sharp contrast between spring, with a marked daily cycle linked to the biological peak, and summer with a smooth daily cycle and low concentration when the biological minimum was reached. The second scheme is based on isopleth analysis and considers observation groups of similar frequencies following an increasing order of mean concentration and daily range. As a result, seasonal evolution was less marked. Straight lines were the borders for groups in the third scheme, which was similar and simpler than the second. The final scheme divided observations by means of equations of daily range as a quadratic function of daily concentration. The groups formed may be linked to seasons, with the group prevailing in summer presenting a noticeable daily range.

Description: Global-to-regional surface temperature and precipitation trends are examined based on the CMIP5 model 100 years of historical simulations and another future 100 years following the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) emission scenario projection. Different from the ensemble mean approach in the previous studies, the probabilistic multimodal ensemble prediction with Gaussian fitting is used to generate probabilistic simulations. The results show that the averaged precipitation increases slightly with global warming, but the response is not globally uniform. Both historical model simulations and the RCP emission scenario projections suffer from large uncertainties in the selected models and the geographic distribution. The spatial distribution of spreads among the multimodal scenario projections is similar to that in the historical simulations, except the magnitude of spread sharply increases and the region expands equatorward and poleward in surface temperature and precipitation, respectively.

Description: This study presents a spatial clustering of precipitation in Iran based on gridded data from the Precipitation Climatology Centre from 1951 to 2007. After standardizing the data, two multivariate methods of factor analysis and cluster analysis were used to derive primary homogeneous regions. Then, two statistical tests based on the concepts of L-moments were applied to examine the homogeneity of clusters and the discordancy of their member(s). Next, the geographical similarities of different parts of Iran were considered to move heterogeneous points to other clusters. These two steps were repeated to derive clusters that passed both tests. Finally, for each final cluster (region), the best probability distribution function was determined for frequency analysis. The results showed that, in terms of precipitation, Iran can be categorized into eight main probabilistic homogenous regions, and the Wakeby probability distribution function was chosen for half of them.

Description: Since a tropical cyclone (TC) usually accompanies a large amount of rainfall, it is estimated that average amounts of rainfall in summer increase in Northeast Asia (NA) when the genesis of TC in the western North Pacific (WNP) is frequent. However, the present study found a negative correlation between TC genesis number in summer over the WNP and the amount of summer rainfall over the mid-latitudes of NA from 1980 to 2009. The results of the analysis reveal that in a positive TC genesis phase (years in which TCs occur more frequently than on average), an anomalous cyclone forms over the WNP, which generates anomalous cold and dry northeasterly winds in the mid-latitudes of NA, resulting in reduction of rainfall. In comparison, in a negative TC genesis phase (years in which TCs occur less frequently than on average), a large anomalous anticyclone develops over the western Pacific, which generates anomalous warm and humid southwesterly winds, resulting in increase of rainfall in the same region. The comparisons of the TC tracks between the two phases also reveal that in both phases, the TC passage number is rather low in the mid-latitudes of NA regardless of TC activities over the WNP. This suggests that TC number does not greatly affect the total amount of summer rainfall in NA; instead, a large-scale atmospheric circulation forming favorable (unfavorable) rainfall conditions in the negative (positive) TC genesis phase controls the summer rainfall in that area.

Description: In this study, we show how the climatological suitability of wine grapes cultivation of the transboundary region of Poland, Germany and the Czech Republic has changed over the 1971–2010 period. Strong, positive and statistically significant trend in sum of active temperatures (SAT) and growing degree days (GDD) is observed. The trend is more pronounced in the lowland areas of the study region. The total acreage suitable for more demanding, in terms of SAT and GDD, varieties of wine grapes is increasing, while the opposite trend is observed for less demanding classes. The observed trends reduce the risk for wine grapes cultivation in terms of accumulative SAT and GDD indices. This shows that the transboundary area of Poland, Germany and Czech Republic shifts towards the climate more suitable for viticulture.

Description: Fog has been recognised as a hazardous weather phenomenon that can cause accidents and affect urban air quality negatively. Therefore, assessing the characteristics of fog formation, as well as the changes in fog frequency and intensity as a result of climate change is of high importance. This study covers a 52-year period and contains an analysis of the frequency of fog occurring, long-term changes in fog frequency and atmospheric conditions that favour the occurrence of fog events in Latvia. During the analysis, two inter-annual maxima of fog frequency were identified in the spring and autumn; the seasonal differences in the formation of fog were also confirmed using satellite observations of low-level cloudiness. However, the long-term changes of fog frequency showed a decrease tendency of fog to form, which may be associated with improvements in air quality since industrialization and the observed increase of air temperature.

Description: Precipitation time series were analysed using the Mann–Kendall (MK) test and wavelet analysis based on the mean seasonal and annual precipitation from 29 meteorological stations in Jilin Province for the period 1958–2011. Both the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the seasonal and annual precipitation trends and periodicities in different regions in Jilin Province were studied for the first time in this paper. New findings from the intensive calculations and appropriate analysis of data in longer period are as follows: (i) The annual precipitation of Jilin Province has experienced four states: a decrease (1958–1980), increase (1980–1987), decrease (1987–2003) and increase (2003–2011). (ii) The annual precipitation and seasonal precipitation increased from the northwest and northeast of the study area toward the south. (iii) Almost 90 % of the stations showed negative trends in annual precipitation variations. (iv) The trends in spring and winter are mainly increasing, whereas the trends in summer and autumn are mainly decreasing. (v) Jilin Province can be divided into four parts based on the periodicities of annual precipitation sequences: 5–6, 10–20 and 25–30 years in the northwest; 4–8 and 16–25 years in the centre; 7–8 and 13–17 years in the south and 5–10 and 12–17 years in the southeast.

Description: The possible influence of Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) on winter haze days in China at interannual and decadal time scales is investigated using the observed haze-day data from 329 meteorological stations, National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Centers for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis, and a SST dataset for 1978–2012. Wintertime haze days in China show robust interannual variations and significant increases over time. The SST anomalies over the North Atlantic from summer to the following winter exhibit a significant in-phase relationship with winter haze days on both decadal and interannual time scales, whereas the anomalous negative-positive SSTs from north to south over the South Atlantic from autumn to the following winter show a significant positive relationship with winter haze days on the interannual time scale. The anomalous warm SST over the North Atlantic, i.e., the positive phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), corresponds to the positive phase of the Arctic oscillation (AO). This result implies that a stable mean flow and strong westerly anomalies exist over north China. The anomalous dipole pattern in the South Atlantic results in the abnormal southerly airflow in the troposphere over eastern China. Neither the westerly anomalies over north China nor the southerly anomalies over eastern China, which are associated with the North Atlantic and South Atlantic SST anomalies, respectively, are conducive to occurrences of cold air. Consequently, the weakened cold airflow from north of eastern China suppresses the dispersion of pollutants over China and results in above-normal haze days.

Description: Characteristics of cyclones (frequency, intensity and size) and their changes in the Arctic region in a warmer climate have been analyzed with the use of the HIRHAM regional climate model simulations with SRES-A1B anthropogenic scenario for the twenty first century. The focus was on cyclones for the warm (April–September) and cold (October–March) seasons. The present-day cyclonic characteristics from HIRHAM simulations are in general agreement with those from ERA–40 reanalysis data. Differences noted for the frequency of cyclones are related with different spatial resolution in the model simulations and reanalysis data. Potential future changes in cyclone characteristics at the end of the twenty first century have been analyzed. According to the model simulations, the frequency of cyclones is increasing in warm seasons and decreasing in cold seasons for a warmer climate in the twenty first century, but these changes are statistically insignificant. Noticeable changes were detected for the intensity and size of cyclones for the both seasons. Significant increase was found for the frequency of weak cyclones during cold season. Further, a general increase in the frequency of small cyclones was calculated in cold seasons, while its frequency decreases in warm seasons.

Description: Outdoor thermal comfort is one of the most influential factors in the habitability of a space. Thermal level is defined not only by climate variables but also by the adaptation of people to the environment. This study presents a comparison between inductive and deductive thermal comfort models, contrasted with subjective reports, in order to identify which of the models can be used to most correctly predict thermal comfort in tree-covered outdoor spaces of the Mendoza Metropolitan Area, an intensely forested and open city located in an arid zone. Interviews and microclimatic measurements were carried out in winter 2010 and in summer 2011. Six widely used indices were selected according to different levels of complexity: the Temperature-Humidity Index (THI), Vinje’s Comfort Index (PE), Thermal Sensation Index (TS), the Predicted Mean Vote (PMV), the COMFA model’s energy balance (S), and the Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET). The results show that the predictive models evaluated show percentages of predictive ability lower than 25 %. Despite this low indicator, inductive methods are adequate for obtaining a diagnosis of the degree and frequency in which a space is comfortable or not whereas deductive methods are recommended to influence urban design strategies. In addition, it is necessary to develop local models to evaluate perceived thermal comfort more adequately. This type of tool is very useful in the design and evaluation of the thermal conditions in outdoor spaces, based not only to climatic criteria but also subjective sensations.

Description: Climate change would increase the risk of floods or droughts. So far, only a few studies have projected changes in extremes on a regional or local scale. None of these studies relied on multiple climate proxies. Only some studies have started to estimate the exposure to flooding or drought as a proxy of risk; so, here, we present an exercise in risk analysis. Studies of climate change and its impacts rarely yield consensus on the distribution of exposure, vulnerability or possible outcomes. In addition, Northeast Brazil (NEB) is known for its temporal and spatial variability of rainfall and several studies have investigated this variability in order to understand damaging episodes such as droughts and floods. In NEB, the phenomenon of drought is a complex issue because millions of people are affected, and so, it is an important object of study in various fields of knowledge. One way of trying to argue about this phenomenon is through the concept of vulnerability. In this preliminary study, one will determine the risk or exposure factor to drought, which is one component of vulnerability, mainly concerning agricultural activities. The drought risk/exposure indicator was constructed based on three indices: the standardized precipitation index (SPI), the precipitation concentration period (PCP) and the precipitation concentration degree (PCD). The exposure indices showed an increase in high values from 1979 to 2008. On the contrary, the period from 1967 to 1996 showed that the risk factor in some micro-regions had low indices in a larger number; one can note that the dynamics of the factor is in an evolution between high and extremes.

Description: In this study, the regional climate model of RegCM3 is applied to investigate the sensitivity of regional climate over China using four cumulus parameterizations, the modified Anthes-Kuo (AK), the Grell with Arakawa-Schubert closure, the Grell with Fritsch–Chappell closure, and the MIT-Emanuel (EM). The model was integrated over the period of 1982 to 2001 using the NCEP Reanalysis data NNRP2 as boundary conditions. RegCM3 coupled with various cumulus parameterizations is evaluated firstly as for its ability to represent regional climatology and climate extreme indices, and the results show that simulated regional climate in China is sensitive to the option of cumulus parameterizations. All the cumulus schemes produce a northward expansion of heavy rain area and an underestimation of surface air temperature. For precipitation, the AK scheme simulates relatively better magnitude, while the EM scheme has more reliable performance on the spatial distribution. RegCM3 can represent the spatial distributions of extreme indices for both precipitation and temperature, as well as their decadal trends irrelevant to the cumulus parameterizations. However, the model underestimates the consecutive dry days and overestimates the three extreme wet indices, with the EM scheme giving the worst result. Slight underestimations of extreme temperature indices are detected in all cumulus parameterization scheme runs. The shapes of probability distribution functions for extreme indices are correctly produced, though the probabilities of extreme dry and warm events are underestimated.

Description: After extreme dry (wet) summers or years, pollen production of different taxa may decrease (increase) substantially. Accordingly, studying effects of current and past meteorological conditions on current pollen concentrations for different taxa have of major importance. The purpose of this study is separating the weight of current and past weather conditions influencing current pollen productions of three taxa. Two procedures, namely multiple correlations and factor analysis with special transformation are used. The 11-year (1997–2007) data sets include daily pollen counts of Ambrosia (ragweed), Poaceae (grasses) and Populus (poplar), as well as daily values of four climate variables (temperature, relative humidity, global solar flux and precipitation). Multiple correlations of daily pollen counts with simultaneous values of daily meteorological variables do not show annual course for Ambrosia , but do show definite trends for Populus and Poaceae. Results received using the two methods revealed characteristic similarities. For all the three taxa, the continental rainfall peak and additional local showers in the growing season can strengthen the weight of the current meteorological elements. However, due to the precipitation, big amount of water can be stored in the soil contributing to the effect of the past climate elements during dry periods. Higher climate sensitivity (especially water sensitivity) of the herbaceous taxa ( Ambrosia and Poaceae) can be definitely established compared to the arboreal Populus . Separation of the weight of the current and past weather conditions for different taxa involves practical importance both for health care and agricultural production.

Description: Extreme temperature events are known to favor large wildland fires. It is expected that fire activity will increase with changing climate. This work analyzes the effects of high-temperature days on medium and large fires (those larger than 50 ha) from 1978 to 2010 in Spain. A high-temperature day was defined as being when air temperature at 850 hPa was higher than the 95th percentile of air temperature at that elevation from June to September across the years 1978–2010. Temperature at 850 hPa was chosen because it properly characterizes the state of the lower troposphere. The effects of high temperature on forest fires were remarkable and significant in terms of fire number (15 % of total large fires occurred under high-temperature days) and burned area (25 % of the total burned area occurred under high-temperature days). Fire size was also significantly higher under the 95th percentile air temperature at 850 hPa, and a large part of the largest fires in the past 20 years were under these extreme conditions. Additionally, both burned area and fire number only decreased under non-high-temperature days in the study period and not under high-temperature conditions.

Description: New method for the time series homogenization of observed precipitation (PP) totals is presented; this method is a unit of the ACMANT software package. ACMANT is a relative homogenization method; minimum four time series with adequate spatial correlations are necessary for its use. The detection of inhomogeneities (IHs) is performed with fitting optimal step function, while the calculation of adjustment terms is based on the minimization of the residual variance in homogenized datasets. Together with the presentation of PP homogenization with ACMANT, some peculiarities of PP homogenization as, for instance, the frequency and seasonal variation of IHs in observed PP data and their relation to the performance of homogenization methods are discussed. In climatic regions of snowy winters, ACMANT distinguishes two seasons, namely, rainy season and snowy season, and the seasonal IHs are searched with bivariate detection. ACMANT is a fully automatic method, is freely downloadable from internet and treats either daily or monthly input. Series of observed data in the input dataset may cover different periods, and the occurrence of data gaps is allowed. False zero values instead of missing data code or physical outliers should be corrected before running ACMANT. Efficiency tests indicate that ACMANT belongs to the best performing methods, although further comparative tests of automatic homogenization methods are needed to confirm or reject this finding.

Description: High mountain regions are characterized by a large climatic heterogeneity which is not sufficiently represented by state-of-the-art climate models or reanalysis products. With regard to the increasing demand for high-resolution temperature data for climate impact studies, a statistical approach is presented, which allows estimating high-resolution near-surface temperature fields in complex terrain. High-resolution free air temperatures are derived from climate model data by considering the current stratification of the atmosphere. The residuals compared with in situ observation of near-surface temperatures are subsequently analyzed using a regression tree approach with suitable large-scale atmospheric and local-scale terrain parameters as predictors. The model identifies the predominant synoptic and topographic controls for the local-scale distribution of residuals and can be used to regionalize residual fields with high spatial resolution. The disadvantage that a tree-structured model generates stepwise constant predictant values can be overcome by integrating a fuzzifying routine. A fuzzified regression tree model was applied to analyze and predict the spatial and temporal variability of topographically induced temperatures for a target area in the Central Himalayas. Large-scale atmospheric variables, derived from the ERA-Interim reanalysis, and local terrain parameters were used as potential predictors. The model sufficiently identified the main influencing factors for the temperature heterogeneity. The potential solar insolation was found to be the predominant predictor, but also, hydroclimatic large-scale variables were found to be crucial. During clear nights, the model showed a distinct elevation dependency of residuals which indicates the importance of nocturnal cold air drainage and accumulation for the local-scale temperature distribution in the highly structured target area.

Description: In the present study, evapotranspiration ( ET ) data from a common reed-dominated wetland and its meteorological controls was analysed using measured ET ( ET m ) in compensation evapotranspirometers. Six seasons in the time period between 2003 and 2012 were assessed with the objective of converting theoretical observations into long-term practical use. They reveal the effects of annual fluctuations and allow for a more exact understanding of the results of ET losses, which remain an elusive and substantial part of the hydrologic budget particularly in wetland habitats. Daily measured ET rates were strongly influenced by weather variables causing considerable variation of ET characteristics between the two distinguished season types. The results of multiple stepwise regression analysis showed that the major meteorological elements impacting the sum of seasonal ET was much higher in the warm growing seasons (857 mm), due to increased available energy for ET , than in the cool season (385 mm). The sum of average ET totalled 778.6 mm over measurements. A simplified water budget analysis confirmed that adequate water volume, caused by precipitation, entered the Kis-Balaton wetland (KBW) area during the cool season. Conversely, in warm seasons, only 21.5 % of total ET resulted from rainfall, accentuating its seasonality in wetland. This information about annual variability of long-term ET values would assist in finding an ideal solution for determining the proper water level needed. The current balance of habitat types in wetland should be permanently assessed by selection of the suitable water level in order to sustain the most appropriate wetland ecological conditions.

Description: To expand torrential rain, which is a meso- and microscale weather process, to a meso- and long-scale weather process, in this paper, we choose South China as a sample region and propose the conception of the “Cumulative Effect” of torrential rain (CETR) by using daily precipitation observational data from 740 stations. Through a statistical analysis of the observations, three indexes—continuous time ( L d ), control area ( A r ), and precipitation contribution rate ( Q s )—are used to define the CETR and indicate the torrential rain processes. The relationships between the CETR and simultaneous total precipitation over South China are analyzed in the pre-flooding and latter flooding seasons. This analysis shows that on both interannual and interdecadal scales, the three indexes are highly correlated with simultaneous total precipitation over South China in the pre-flooding season and latter flooding season. Moreover, an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is performed to classify the spatial distribution of the CETR. In both the pre-flooding season and the latter flooding season, the four major spatial models of torrential rain are similar to those of total precipitation over South China. With regard to the amount of precipitation caused by the CETR, the latter flooding season is affected more significantly than the pre-flooding season. Regarding the geographical distribution of precipitation, the opposite result occurs. In conclusion, in both the pre-flooding season and the latter flooding season, the CETR influences and even determines the amount and distribution of precipitation over South China.

Description: Snow is a key element for many socioeconomic activities in mountainous regions. Due to the sensitivity of the snow cover to variations of temperature and precipitation, major changes caused by climate change are expected to happen. We analyze the evolution of some key snow indices under future climatic conditions. Ten downscaled and postprocessed climate scenarios from the ENSEMBLES database have been used to feed the physics-based snow model SNOWPACK. The projected snow cover has been calculated for 11 stations representing the diverse climates found in Switzerland. For the first time, such a setup is used to reveal changes in frequently applied snow indices and their implications on various socioeconomic sectors. Toward the end of the twenty-first century, a continuous snow cover is likely only guaranteed at high elevations above 2000 m a.s.l., whereas at mid elevations (1000–1700 m a.s.l.), roughly 50 % of all winters might be characterized by an ephemeral snow cover. Low elevations (below 500 m a.s.l.) are projected to experience only 2 days with snowfall per year and show the strongest relative reductions in mean winter snow depth of around 90 %. The range of the mean relative reductions of the snow indices is dominated by uncertainties from different GCM-RCM projections and amounts to approximately 30 %. Despite these uncertainties, all snow indices show a clear decrease in all scenario periods and the relative reductions increase toward lower elevations. These strong reductions can serve as a basis for policy makers in the fields of tourism, ecology, and hydropower.

Description: This study is conducted to investigate the regional effects of climate change on Zayandeh-Rud River Basin located in the central part of Iran for the both near and far future scenarios. A combination of various general circulation models (GCMs) is used through a weighting approach to generate different climate change patterns including the ideal, medium, and critical patterns. Each of the GCMs has different ability to simulate the baseline climatic parameters in various months and regions of the basin. A new method, namely “modified weighting method based on the actual values” (MWM-AV), also is applied to convert the local effects of climate change to the regional effects. The results showed that the annual temperature of Zayandeh-Rud River Basin would increase by 0.59–1.34 and 1.02–2.53 °C, respectively, in the near and far futures in which maximum increase in seasonal temperature is expected to happen in the summer. Annual precipitation would change by +1.78 to −20.78 % in the near future and −14.35 to −32.82 % in the far future. The maximum decrease in precipitation is observed to be in the winter. The results of temperature and precipitation regionalization showed that the applied method has a good precision in estimating temperature and precipitation in different regions of the desired basin. The eastern part of the basin would have the maximum increase in temperature, while the western part would experience the maximum decrease in precipitation. Overall, the results demonstrated that due to the centralization of the main water uses in the east and the water resources in the west, the Zayandeh-Rud River Basin will face an intensive water shortage under climate change.

Description: We describe a new two-step modeling framework for investigating the impact of climate change on human comfort in outdoor urban environments. In the first step, climate change scenarios for air temperature and solar radiation (global, diffuse, direct components) are created using a change-factor algorithm. The change factors are calculated by comparing ranked daily regional climate model outputs for a future-period and a present-day period, and then changes consistent with these daily change factors are applied to historical hourly climate observations. In the second step, the mean-radiant-temperature ( T mrt ) is calculated using the SOLWEIG (SOlar and LongWave Environmental Irradiance Geometry) model. T mrt, which describes the radiant heat exchange between a person and their surroundings, is one of the most important meteorologically derived parameters governing human energy balance and outdoor thermal comfort, especially during warm and sunny days. We demonstrate that change factors can be applied independently to maximum air temperature and daily global solar radiation, and show that the outputs from the algorithm, when aggregated to daily values, are consistent with the driving regional climate model. Finally, we demonstrate how to obtain quantitative information from the scenarios regarding the potential impact of climate change on outdoor thermal comfort, by calculating changes in the distribution of hourly summer day-time T mrt and changes in the number of hours with T mrt 〉55 °C.

Description: Radiosonde measurements obtained at the Arctic site Ny-Ålesund (78.9°N, 11.9°E), Svalbard, from 1993 to 2014 have been homogenized accounting for instrumentation discontinuities by correcting known errors in the manufacturer provided profiles. The resulting homogenized radiosonde record is provided as supplementary material at http://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.845373 . From the homogenized data record, the first Ny-Ålesund upper-air climatology of wind, temperature and humidity is presented, forming the background for the analysis of changes during the 22-year period. Particularly during the winter season, a strong increase in atmospheric temperature and humidity is observed, with a significant warming of the free troposphere in January and February up to 3 K per decade. This winter warming is even more pronounced in the boundary layer below 1 km, presumably amplified by mesoscale processes including e.g. orographic effects or the boundary layer capping inversion. Though the largest contribution to the increasing atmospheric water vapour column in winter originates from the lowermost 2 km, no increase in the contribution by specific humidity inversions is detected. Instead, we find an increase in the humidity content of the large-scale background humidity profiles. At the same time, the tropospheric flow in winter is found to occur less frequent from northerly directions and to the same amount more frequent from the South. We conclude that changes in the atmospheric circulation lead to an enhanced advection of warm and moist air from lower latitudes to the Svalbard region in the winter season, causing the warming and moistening of the atmospheric column above Ny-Ålesund, and link the observations to changes in the Arctic Oscillation.

Description: Global warming has implications for thermal stress for grapevines during ripening, so that wine producers need to adapt their viticultural practices to ensure optimum physiological response to environmental conditions in order to maintain wine quality. The aim of this paper is to assess the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to accurately represent atmospheric processes at high resolution (500 m) during two events during the grapevine ripening period in the Stellenbosch Wine of Origin district of South Africa. Two case studies were selected to identify areas of potentially high daytime heat stress when grapevine photosynthesis and grape composition were expected to be affected. The results of high-resolution atmospheric model simulations were compared to observations obtained from an automatic weather station (AWS) network in the vineyard region. Statistical analysis was performed to assess the ability of the WRF model to reproduce spatial and temporal variations of meteorological parameters at 500-m resolution. The model represented the spatial and temporal variation of meteorological variables very well, with an average model air temperature bias of 0.1 °C, while that for relative humidity was −5.0 % and that for wind speed 0.6 m s −1 . Variation in model performance varied between AWS and with time of day, as WRF was not always able to accurately represent effects of nocturnal cooling within the complex terrain. Variations in performance between the two case studies resulted from effects of atmospheric boundary layer processes in complex terrain under the influence of the different synoptic conditions prevailing during the two periods.

Description: This paper describes different ways of reducing urban air temperature and their results in two cities: Campinas, Brazil—a warm temperate climate with a dry winter and hot summer (Cwa), and Mendoza, Argentina—a desert climate with cold steppe (BWk). A high-resolution microclimate modeling system—ENVI-met 3.1—was used to evaluate the thermal performance of an urban canyon in each city. A total of 18 scenarios were simulated including changes in the surface albedo, vegetation percentage, and the H/W aspect ratio of the urban canyons. These results revealed the same trend in behavior for each of the combinations of strategies evaluated in both cities. Nevertheless, these strategies produce a greater temperature reduction in the warm temperate climate (Cwa). Increasing the vegetation percentage reduces air temperatures and mean radiant temperatures in all scenarios. In addition, there is a greater decrease of urban temperature with the vegetation increase when the H/W aspect ratio is lower. Also, applying low albedo on vertical surfaces and high albedo on horizontal surfaces is successful in reducing air temperatures without raising the mean radiant temperature. The best combination of strategies—60 % of vegetation, low albedos on walls and high albedos on pavements and roofs, and 1.5 H/W—could reduce air temperatures up to 6.4 °C in Campinas and 3.5 °C in Mendoza.

Description: This paper presents a hybrid model to better predict Indian summer monsoon rainfall. The algorithm considers suitable techniques for processing dense datasets. The proposed three-step algorithm comprises closed itemset generation-based association rule mining for feature selection, cluster membership for dimensionality reduction, and simple logistic function for prediction. The application of predicting rainfall into flood, excess, normal, deficit, and drought based on 36 predictors consisting of land and ocean variables is presented. Results show good accuracy in the considered study period of 37years (1969–2005).

Description: In mountainous region with heterogeneous topography, the geostatistical modeling of the rainfall using global data set may not confirm to the intrinsic hypothesis of stationarity. This study was focused on improving the precision of the interpolated rainfall maps by spatial stratification in complex terrain. Predictions of the normal annual rainfall data were carried out by ordinary kriging, universal kriging, and co-kriging, using 80-point observations in the Indian Himalayas extending over an area of 53,484 km 2 . A two-step spatial clustering approach is proposed. In the first step, the study area was delineated into two regions namely lowland and upland based on the elevation derived from the digital elevation model. The delineation was based on the natural break classification method. In the next step, the rainfall data was clustered into two groups based on its spatial location in lowland or upland. The terrain ruggedness index (TRI) was incorporated as a co-variable in co-kriging interpolation algorithm. The precision of the kriged and co-kriged maps was assessed by two accuracy measures, root mean square error and Chatfield’s percent better. It was observed that the stratification of rainfall data resulted in 5–20 % of increase in the performance efficiency of interpolation methods. Co-kriging outperformed the kriging models at annual and seasonal scale. The result illustrates that the stratification of the study area improves the stationarity characteristic of the point data, thus enhancing the precision of the interpolated rainfall maps derived using geostatistical methods.

Description: Drought belongs among the main impact factors considering crop yields. Therefore, this paper is focused on the assessment of drought occurrence and intensity as well as on its impact on crop yields on the Danubian and the East Slovakian lowlands with the spatial resolution at district level. Yield data were the main limitation of the study, which resulted in the limited length of the assessed period (1996–2013). The standardized yields of ten crops (winter wheat, spring wheat, winter barley, spring barley, rye, maize, potatoes, oilseed rape, sunflower, and sugar beet) were correlated with monthly, 2-, and 3-monthly standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI). For this purpose, the common significance level of alpha = 0.05 was used. The temporal evolution of both indices and drought occurrence during the period 1961–2013 were assessed for each district. Most crops show a higher correlation with the SPEI than with the SPI in contrast to potatoes, which reached a higher significant correlation using the SPI. The correlation also increases with increasing number of months within a time step. The highest correlation can be seen between maize and the 3-monthly SPEI in August representing summer precipitation and potential evapotranspiration conditions. Furthermore, a very high correlation was recorded considering sugar beet, which is influenced mainly by summer precipitation, because the correlation coefficient between the sugar beet and the 3-monthly SPI is as high as using the 3-monthly SPEI. Crop yields in the East Slovakian Lowland do not seem to be influenced by wet/dry periods identified using the SPI and the SPEI as their correlation with both indices is quite low and insignificant.

Description: ECMWF reanalysis (ERA–interim) data of winds for two solar cycles (1991–2012) are harmonically analyzed to delineate the characteristics and variability of diurnal tide over a tropical site (13.5° N, 79.5° E). The diurnal cycle horizontal winds measured by Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E) mesosphere–stratosphere–troposphere (MST) radar between May 2005 and April 2006 have been used to compute 24 h tidal amplitudes and phases and compared with the corresponding results obtained from ERA winds. The climatological diurnal tidal amplitudes and phases have been estimated from surface to ∼33 km using ERA interim data. The amplitudes and phases obtained in the present study are found to compare reasonably well with Global Scale Wave Model (GSWM–09). Diurnal tides show larger amplitudes in the lower troposphere below 5 km during summer and in the mid-stratosphere mainly during equinoctial months and early winter. Water vapor and convection in the lower troposphere are observed to play major roles in exciting 24-h tide. Correlations between diurnal amplitude and integrated water vapor and between diurnal amplitude and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) are 0.59 and −0.34, respectively. Ozone mixing ratio correlates ( ρ  = 0.66) well with diurnal amplitude and shows annual variation in the troposphere whereas semi-annual variation is observed at stratospheric heights with stronger peaks in equinoctial months. A clear annual variation of diurnal amplitude is displayed in the troposphere and interannual variability becomes prominent in the stratosphere which could be partly due to the influence of equatorial stratospheric QBO. The influence of solar activity on diurnal oscillations is found to be insignificant.

Description: An assessment of future change in synoptic conditions over the Arabian Peninsula throughout the twenty-first century was performed using 20 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) database. We employed the mean sea level pressure (SLP) data from model output together with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and compared the relevant circulation types produced by the Lamb classification scheme for the base period 1975–2000. Overall, model results illustrated good agreement with the reanalysis, albeit with a tendency to underestimate cyclonic (C) and southeasterly (SE) patterns and to overestimate anticyclones and directional flows. We also investigated future projections for each circulation-type during the rainy season (December–May) using three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), comprising RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Overall, two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5) revealed a statistically significant increase in weather types favoring above normal rainfall in the region (e.g., C and E-types). In contrast, weather types associated with lower amounts of rainfall (e.g., anticyclones) are projected to decrease in winter but increase in spring. For all scenarios, there was consistent agreement on the sign of change (i.e., positive/negative) for the most frequent patterns (e.g., C, SE, E and A-types), whereas the sign was uncertain for less recurrent types (e.g., N, NW, SE, and W). The projected changes in weather type frequencies in the region can be viewed not only as indicators of change in rainfall response but may also be used to inform impact studies pertinent to water resource planning and management, extreme weather analysis, and agricultural production.

Description: The majority of natural hazards that affect Canadian territory are the result of extreme climate and weather conditions. Among these weather hazards, some can be calculated from the application of thresholds for minimum and maximum temperatures at a daily or monthly timescale. These thermal indices allowed the prediction of extreme conditions that may have an impact on the human population by affecting, for example, health, agriculture, and water resources. In this article, we discuss the methods used (RHtestsV4, SPLIDHOM, ClimPACT) then describe the steps followed to calculate the indices, including how we dealt with the problem of missing data and the necessity to identify a common methodology to analyze the time series. We also present possible solutions for ensuring the quality of meteorological data. We then present an overview of the results, namely the main trends and variability of extreme temperature for seven stations located in the Gaspé Peninsula from 1974 to 2013. Our results indicate some break points in time series and positive trends for most indices related to the rise of the temperatures but indicate a negative trend for the indices related to low temperatures for most stations during the study period.

Description: Recent studies have showed that there is a significant decrease in rainfall over Greece during the last half of the pervious century, following an overall decrease of the precipitation at the eastern Mediterranean. However, during the last decade an increase in rainfall was observed in most regions of the country, contrary to the general circulation climate models forecasts. An updated high-resolution dataset of monthly sums and annual daily maxima records derived from 136 stations during the period 1940–2012 allowed us to present some new evidence for the observed change and its statistical significance. The statistical framework used to determine the significance of the slopes in annual rain was not limited to the time independency assumption (Mann-Kendall test), but we also investigated the effect of short- and long-term persistence through Monte Carlo simulation. Our findings show that (a) change occurs in different scales; most regions show a decline since 1950, an increase since 1980 and remain stable during the last 15 years; (b) the significance of the observed decline is highly dependent to the statistical assumptions used; there are indications that the Mann-Kendall test may be the least suitable method; and (c) change in time is strongly linked with the change in space; for scales below 40 years, relatively close regions may develop even opposite trends, while in larger scales change is more uniform.

Description: The climatology of the moisture and heat budget equation terms for subareas within the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) region is investigated for the 1958–2014 period considering the distinct phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). These budget equations are applied to the data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis project. Sources or sinks of moisture and heat are equation residues, referred to as residue and diabatic terms, respectively. Analyses are done for the Central Amazon Basin (CAM) and Western-Central Brazil (WCB) for three distinct periods, 1958–1976, 1977–1995, and 1996–2014, that correspond to the cold, warm, and undefined PDO phases. The differences among the PDO phases for each term are discussed. The CAM region acts dominantly as a moisture sink and heat source in all months during the three phases. On the other hand, in the WCB region, the monsoon characteristics are better defined, with a moisture sink (source) and a heat source (sink) during the wet (dry) season. The main result of the present analysis is the persistence of SAMS intensification signs in both CAM and WCB areas up to the last analyzed period (1996–2014), which is consistent with intense flooding in the Amazon Basin in 2008/2009, 2012, and 2014.

Description: Drought is a recurrent disaster that occurs in virtually all climatic zones of the world. However, drought characteristics vary substantially among different climatic regions. In this study, multifractal and wavelet analyses are used to characterize drought based on monthly precipitation. The rainfall data of 28 precipitation stations from 1958 to 2011 in Jilin province were collected to calculate the standardized precipitation index (SPI), and the negative monthly SPI time-series is used in a multiscaling approach to determine drought characteristics in Jilin province. Simple scaling and multiscaling analyses show significant variations in monthly droughts in the region. Morlet wavelet analysis also shows that significant cycles and multiple time-scales of drought exist in all stations. Cross wavelet analysis shows that drought occurrence in the region is mainly influenced by different climatic factor scales. However, different factors have different degrees of influence at different regions. The enduring influence of medium and long-term climatic patterns (such as El Niño events) may lead to the simple scaling behavior of drought for some regions.

Description: The Taklimakan Desert is the source of most blowing dust events in China. However, previous studies of sandstorms in this region have not included data from the inner desert because of the difficulty in making observations in this area. In this study, the spatial and temporal variations of blowing dust events, including sandstorms and blowing sand, and its relations with climatic parameters in the Taklimakan Desert were analyzed using data from ten desert-edge meteorological stations during 1961 to 2010 and two inner-desert meteorological stations during 1988 to 1990, 1996 to 2010, and 1992 to 2010. The results identified two regions (Pishan-Hotan-Minfeng and Xiaotang-Tazhong) where blowing dust events occur on average more than 80 days per year. The regions with the highest occurrence of sandstorms, blowing sand, and blowing dust events were different, with sandstorms centered in the north of the desert (Xiaotang, 46.9 days), whereas the central location for blowing sand (Pishan, 86.4 days) and blowing dust events (Minfeng, 113.5 days) activity was located at the southwestern and southern edges of the desert, respectively. The occurrence of sandstorms generally decreased from 1961 to 2010, while the occurrence of blowing sand increased from 1961 to 1979 and then generally decreased. The temporal variation of blowing dust events was mainly affected by the occurrence of strong wind and daily temperature, with average correlation coefficients of 0.46 and −0.41 for these variables across the whole desert.

Description: Inter-annual variability in the onset of monsoon over Kerala (MOK), India, is investigated using daily temperature; mean sea level pressure; winds at 850, 500 and 200 hPa pressure levels; outgoing longwave radiation (OLR); sea surface temperature (SST) and vertically integrated moisture content anomaly with 32 years (1981–2013) observation. The MOK is classified as early, delayed, or normal by considering the mean monsoon onset date over Kerala to be the 1st of June with a standard deviation of 8 days. The objective of the study is to identify the synoptic setup during MOK and comparison with climatology to estimate the predictability of the onset type (early, normal, or delayed) with 5, 10, and 15 days lead time. The study reveals that an enhanced convection observed over the Bay of Bengal during early MOK is found to shift over the Arabian Sea during delayed MOK. An intense high-pressure zone observed over the western south Indian Ocean during early MOK shifts to the east during delayed MOK. Higher tropospheric temperature (TT) over the western Equatorial Ocean during early MOK and lower TT over the Indian subcontinent intensify the land–ocean thermal contrast that leads to early MOK. The sea surface temperature (SST) over the Arabian Sea is observed to be warmer during delayed than early MOK. During early MOK, the source of 850 hPa southwesterly wind shifts to the west equatorial zone while a COL region has been found during delayed MOK at that level. The study further reveals that the wind speed anomaly at the 200-hPa pressure level coincides inversely with the anomaly of tropospheric temperature.