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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2024-05-21
    Description: This paper applies a mental model approach to study the role of tenure security in farmers’ decisionmaking on agricultural investment in Uganda. We investigate the role that both perceived tenure security and formal land rights, measured by the possession of land certificates, play. Our focus is on investment in improved seeds, a widely applied strategy in agricultural development and climate change adaptation. The study design leverages the roll-out of a large land demarcation and registration project, which creates exogenous variation in farmers’ tenure security. Results show that, in contrast to expectations derived from economic theory, tenure security plays only a minor role in farmers’ decision-making process to invest in improved seeds. Out of 15 potential factors determining a farmer’s investment decision, both perceived tenure security and possession of a land certificate are among the least chosen factors, regardless of whether or not households participated in the land registration project. A heterogeneity analysis reveals that female-headed households value formalized land rights more than male-headed households.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/report
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2024-05-21
    Description: In this paper we ask: why do people in rural agrarian communities facing increasing migration pressures from changing climatic conditions, stay? We aim to understand why people stay, who stays, what are the impacts of migration on those who stay, and what are their needs for adaptation? We study a population of people who do not migrate from Himalayan communities of Uttarakhand, India, despite their livelihoods being already severely disrupted by climate change climate change and high outmigration has led to abandoned so-called ‘ghost villages’. Semi-structured interviews (n = 72) were held with affected communities, experts, and policymakers. Results show that motivations for immobility are shaped by place attachment; place-based resource advantages; social milieu; dependence on subsistence agriculture and gender roles. We find that immobility experiences are differentiated by gender, age and in situ resources. Those who stay are negatively impacted by migration via loss of labour in agriculture, changes in population size and composition, loss of community, in addition to the negative impacts of climate change. Our results are likely relevant on a global scale, to other subsistence smallholder communities who stay despite increasing climate risks. These populations will need gender-sensitive support to adapt in place.
    Language: English
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  • 3
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    In:  Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Global Public Health
    Publication Date: 2024-05-21
    Description: The benefits of gardening for mental and physical health are well known. Gardening is also recognized as a local-level or grassroots response to the negative effects of climate change and global warming. In urban areas, dense neighborhoods, limited green spaces, contaminated brownfield sites, and, at times, restrictive council regulations on the public use of parks and verges can act as barriers to gardening. In the 1970s, guerrilla gardening emerged as a clandestine, environmentally conscious, grassroots activity to reclaim and transform neglected or derelict urban spaces into healthy green spaces. Although not as subversive since its inception, guerrilla gardening in cities is as much a recreational activity as it is an ecological statement of urban activism, which effectively provides urban dwellers an entry point to engage with the outdoors for the planting of edible and nonedible plants in artificial places and spaces where natural life struggles to exist. Guerilla gardening has been impactful to city life through its contributions and controversies in improving urban ecosystems, educating neighbors on nutrition and food production where gardens crop up, and broadly to the health of humans (and other creatures) who live there.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/bookPart
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2024-05-21
    Description: To address climatic risks to human security, various climate security risk assessment (CSRA) tools have been developed. We have systematically reviewed 28 such tools against state-of-the-art research to (i) define best practices in CSRAs, (ii) identify related gaps in these tools and derive recommendations on how to address them, and (iii) outline a policy-relevant research agenda. We suggest the following measures to improve CSRA tools: Global South actors need to be more strongly involved in priority setting, conceptualization, risk analysis, and intervention design. CSRA tools should offer geographically disaggregated analyses, transparently explain choices regarding tools’ temporal and geographical foci, and assess their implications for the evidence. In this regard, any type of sampling bias should be avoided. Mixed methods can offer clear advantages to study the context-specific climate security dynamics across different time scales. The main gaps in the tools’ conceptualizations evolve around comprehensive consideration of risk determinants (climatic hazards, exposure, and vulnerability) and complex climate–security linkages, communication of uncertainty, and implementation of validation routines. These factors need to be better accounted for. To advance CSRAs, future research should, for example, develop methodologies to systematically integrate quantitative and qualitative approaches, improve the performance of risk predictions, and develop conflict projections.
    Language: English
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2024-05-21
    Description: We analyze if exposure to weather risk affects the tenure security of smallholder farmers in rural Tanzania. Drawing on a household panel survey with three waves and high-resolution weather data, our identification strategy exploits exogenous variation in precipitation across time and space. Results from household fixed effects estimations show that exposure to weather risk significantly lowers farmers’ perceived tenure security, while it increases land conflicts. Moreover, weather risk influences the likelihood that farmers acquire land certificates. These findings suggest that both land formalization and land dispute resolution mechanisms are needed to cushion the impacts of weather risk.
    Language: English
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2024-05-21
    Description: Forestation efforts are accelerating across the globe in the fight against global climate change, in order to restore biodiversity, and to improve local livelihoods. Yet, so far the non-local effects of forestation on rainfall have largely remained a blind spot. Here we build upon emerging work to propose that targeted rainfall enhancement may also be considered in the prioritization of forestation. We show that the tools to achieve this are rapidly becoming available, but we also identify drawbacks and discuss which further developments are still needed to realize robust assessments of the rainfall effects of forestation in the face of climate change. Forestation programs may then mitigate not only global climate change itself, but also its adverse effects in the form of drying.
    Language: English
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  • 7
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    In:  Environmental Research Letters
    Publication Date: 2024-05-21
    Description: Extreme weather events are rising at a pace which exceeds expectations based on thermodynamic arguments only, changing the way we perceive our climate system and climate change issues. Every year, heatwaves, floods and wildfires, bring death and devastation worldwide, increasing the evidence about the role of anthropogenic climate change in the increase of extremes. In this viewpoint article, we summarize some of the most recent extremes and put them in the context of the most recent research on atmospheric and climate sciences, especially focusing on changes in thermodynamics and dynamics of the atmosphere. While some changes in extremes are to be expected and are clearly attributable to rising greenhouse gas emissions, other seem counterintuitive, highlighting the need for further research in the field. In this context, research on changes in atmospheric dynamics plays a crucial role in explaining some of these extremes and more needs to be done to improve our understanding of the physical mechanisms involved.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2024-05-21
    Description: The planetary boundaries framework defines a safe operating space for humanity. To date, these boundaries have mostly been investigated separately, and it is unclear whether breaching one boundary can lead to the transgression of another. By employing a dynamic global vegetation model, we systematically simulate the strength and direction of the effects of different transgression levels of the climate change boundary (using climate output from ten phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models for CO2 levels ranging from 350 ppm to 1000 ppm). We focus on climate change-induced shifts of Earth's major forest biomes, the control variable for the land-system change boundary, both by the end of this century and, to account for the long-term legacy effect, by the end of the millennium. Our simulations show that while staying within the 350 ppm climate change boundary co-stabilizes the land-system change boundary, breaching it (〉450 ppm) leads to critical transgression of the latter, with greater severity the higher the ppm level rises and the more time passes. Specifically, this involves a poleward treeline shift, boreal forest dieback (nearly completely within its current area under extreme climate scenarios), competitive expansion of temperate forest into today's boreal zone, and a slight tropical forest extension. These interacting changes also affect other planetary boundaries (freshwater change and biosphere integrity) and provide feedback to the climate change boundary itself. Our quantitative process-based study highlights the need for interactions to be studied for a systemic operationalization of the planetary boundaries framework.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2024-05-21
    Description: Today, more than 70 carbon pricing schemes have been implemented around the globe, but their contributions to emissions reductions remains a subject of heated debate in science and policy. Here we assess the effectiveness of carbon pricing in reducing emissions using a rigorous, machine-learning assisted systematic review and meta-analysis. Based on 483 effect sizes extracted from 80 causal ex-post evaluations across 21 carbon pricing schemes, we find that introducing a carbon price has yielded immediate and substantial emission reductions for at least 17 of these policies, despite the low level of prices in most instances. Statistically significant emissions reductions range between –5% to –21% across the schemes (–4% to –15% after correcting for publication bias). Our study highlights critical evidence gaps with regard to dozens of unevaluated carbon pricing schemes and the price elasticity of emissions reductions. More rigorous synthesis of carbon pricing and other climate policies is required across a range of outcomes to advance our understanding of “what works” and accelerate learning on climate solutions in science and policy.
    Language: English
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  • 10
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    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
    In:  Ariadne-Dossier
    Publication Date: 2024-05-21
    Description: There has long been a debate about climate-damaging subsidies in the German transport sector, and the financial restrictions resulting from the Federal Constitutional Court’s budget judgement at the end of 2023 have intensified the debate. This dossier is the first to convert the level of subsidies in the transport sector into negative CO2 prices to present a scientific categorisation of their significance for climate policy. The concept of implicit negative CO2 prices shows the extent to which subsidies implicitly reward citizens for emitting a tonne of CO2, rather than paying for the emissions.
    Language: English
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