ALBERT

Description: Energy labelling for household appliances has become an established instrument to promote energy efficiency. For heating systems, however, this approach has not been successfully implemented yet. This is partially due to the reluctance of industry. To find ways to motivate industry to participate in a labelling scheme, we carried out a survey among producers of heating systems. Respondents to our questionnaire and personal interviews cover together more than 30 percent of the EU market for heating systems. Thus the results provide a solid basis for conclusions. Our survey helps to draw a much better picture of the attitudes and expectations of the manufacturers with regard to a labelling scheme. The paper covers: Attitudes regarding potential effects of a label; Opinions on possible design of a label; Perceived effects of the labels for the companies; Perceived advantages and disadvantages of a label; And, as a conclusion, the potential effects on the companies and their probable relevance. As a result, industry representatives expect that customers will be able to make sounder purchasing decisions because of the availability of a label. Therefore they believe that energy savings will be achieved. What is more, respondents expect that a label could improve integration of the European market for heating systems and would rather improve their individual economic performance. The survey results in a clearer identification of industry's problems, needs and interests. It thus will help policy-makers to get industry to support energy efficiency labels and activities.

Description: Motivated by, inter alia, the increasing energy prices, the security of energy supply and climate change, the new EU "Action Plan for Energy Efficiency: Realising the Potential" (EEAP), sets out the policies and measures required to be implemented over the next six years to achieve the EU's goal of reducing annual primary energy consumption by about 20 % by 2020. By increasing energy efficiency, the security of energy supply and the reduction of carbon emissions are also improved. The paper will analyse the 20 % target of the new EEAP for the energy demand side by comparison with different recent energy scenarios for the EU. It will therefore review the recommended policies and measures and examine, in which energy demand sectors energy efficiency may be increased and to which extend. The main focus is whether the recommended policies and actions will be sufficient and which additional measures may be useful, if additional measures are needed.

Description: About 2 % of the overall electricity consumption of the EU is caused by circulators in single or double family homes and flats. A new technology of pumps with electronically commutated (EC) motor pumps is available now; it is one possible way to achieve a reduction in circulator annual electricity use by 60 % or more. The project's objective is a market transformation towards this new very energy-efficient pump technologies - Energy+ pumps - for circulators in heating systems, both stand alone and integrated in boilers. Only few manufacturers have so far introduced the new pump technology to the market for single or double family homes and flats. To bring more products to the market from all major manufacturers, the project will adapt and apply the technology procurement methodology as it was very successfully tested in the European Energy+ project on energy-efficient cold appliances. Large buyers will be aggregated, to activate the pump and boiler manufacturers. Sales and training materials and a sizing spreadsheet software for installation contractors will be developed and applied. A competition both for energy-efficient products and marketing campaigns will be organised and the information on the Energy+ pumps will be disseminated widely through website, newsletter, media, and fairs. This paper gives a short overview of this project and presents the results of the first project phases: a European wide market study on circulators and heating systems, and the first Energy+ lists for circulators, buyers and supporters.

Description: The German climate change programme (2000) identified the residential sector as one of the main sectors in which to achieve additional GHG reductions. Our case study compiles results of existing evaluations of the key policies and measures that were planned and introduced and carries out some own estimates of achievements. We show, which emission reductions and which instruments where planned and what was delivered until 2004. Legal instruments such as the revised building code were introduced later than planned and their effects will - at least partly - fall behind expectations. Other legal instruments such as minimum energy performance standards for domestic appliances etc. were - in spite of the programme - not implemented yet. On the other hand, substantial financial incentives were introduced. Especially schemes granting low-interest loans for building renovation were introduced. However tax subsidies for low-energy buildings were phased out. In general we can conclude from our case study that Germany was not able to compensate for the slower or restricted implementation of legal instruments through the introduction of financial incentives. Particularly the efficient use of electricity has been left aside as almost no further policy action was taken since 2001. Thus energy efficiency in the residential sector will not deliver the GHG reductions planned for in the German climate change programme until 2005. From our findings we draw conclusions and recommendations towards policy makers: Which lessons are to be learnt and what has to be done in order to fully harness EE potentials in residential sector as planned for 2010?

Description: What are the best policies and measures to stimulate energy efficiency in buildings? The debate around this is at least as diverse as the markets and concepts for energy efficiency in buildings, and often quite controversial. However, no magic formula seems to have been found so far. It is, therefore, time to address the question in a new way - by combining both theoretical evidence on what policy support markets need, and empirical evidence on which combinations or packages of policies have worked. In the context of its new four-year project bigEE - "Bridging the Information Gap on Energy Efficiency in Buildings", the Wuppertal Institute is implementing this new approach. The bigEE project aims at developing an international internet-based knowledge platform for energy efficiency in buildings. Hence, it must provide evidence-based information. On the theoretical side, the analysis starts with value chains in the building sector and the barriers but also actor-inherent incentives that the different types of market participants face. This enables to identify, which policies and measures need to be combined to jointly overcome the barriers and strengthen the incentives. On the empirical side, model examples of good practice are collected and compared. The search for these is guided by the results of the theoretical analysis, international expert opinion, and existing databases and platforms. In order to identify what is "good practice", the project uses a newly developed multi-criteria assessment scheme. Finally, the impacts achieved with the model examples, lessons learned, and their transferability will be used to validate the model policy package identified in the theoretical analysis. The public launch of the bigEE platform is planned for autumn of 2011; eceee Summer Study participants will get a first glance at its content through this paper. The paper presents the methods and tools used and showcases their application for the case of new buildings

Description: The Chinese national government has put energy efficiency and pollution control at the heart of its 11th five-year plan (2005-2010). However, implementation of national policies at the local level is notoriously poor in China. In order to tackle this problem, voluntary agreements were signed between local Environmental Protection Bureaus and 14 mostly state-owned companies from different energy-intensive sectors in Nanjing, Xi'an and Kelamayi in the context of an ongoing EU-funded pilot project. In Nanjing, for instance, agreed targets are in the range of a 3-5% reduction in energy intensity by 2009 over a 2007 baseline. The pilot agreements are informed by Dutch experiences with long-term agreements on energy efficiency (LTA/1989-1999) as European best practice, but have been significantly adjusted to Chinese circumstances. Much emphasis was put on process management applying a cooperative approach throughout. Each enterprise put together a so-called Energy Action Team for voluntary agreement development and implementation. This helped to create a sense of ownership in the companies and assigned clear responsibilities. Energy Action Teams conducted Energy Potential Scans in cooperation with a Dutch expert to identify energy saving potentials and possible measures to realize them. On this basis, achievable targets were agreed and a detailed action plan was developed. A first evaluation is scheduled for April 2009. By lifting industry on a more equal power level with government authorities, voluntary agreements showed to be an effective policy instrument to overcome traditional institutional constraints to environmental policy implementation at the local level in China.

Description: The EU Directive on Energy End-use Efficiency and Energy Services (ESD) set an indicative target for EU Member States to achieve a 9% annual energy saving by 2016 from new energy efficiency improvement (EEI) measures. Until now there has been no common methodology on how to measure and evaluate such savings. An international consortium funded by the Intelligent Energy Europe programme and co-ordinated by the Wuppertal Institute has developed harmonised methods for the evaluation of end-use EEI measures. The European Commission encourages Member States to prove energy savings with the help of these methods. From the evaluation point of view, the transport sector is a special case. In the transport sector, data collection appears to be difficult. A number of values can be derived from existing national statistics, but sources have to be analysed in order to be operational. In passenger transportation, measures prevalently aim at changing mobility behaviour. Mobility behaviour depends on specific socio-economic and local conditions and might therefore vary considerably from measure to measure. Often, only surveys that are well-defined for certain conditions can generate appropriate data. The paper discusses availability and certainty of data sources to be derived to evaluate EEI measures in passenger transportation. It first introduces two transport-related bottom-up evaluation methods for the transport sector. One aims at evaluating measures fostering vehicle energy efficiency. The other one aims at evaluating modal shifts. The paper then points to sources of corresponding data and the way the data have to be analysed. Thereby it demonstrates the trade-off between evaluation costs and the level of certainty. In so doing, it gives recommendations how to conduct the evaluation of transport-related EEI measures with keeping both efforts low and certainty high.

Description: Climate change and thus low-carbon transitions are global challenges, which require commitment and effort on all political levels. As international climate politics has approached its limits over the last two decades, the role of cities has simultaneously gained in importance. Many cities1 worldwide have committed to ambitious climate protection targets, which often exceed national targets. However, cities cannot act in isolation. Their opportunities for action are embedded in an (inter)national policy framework, which may either support or hinder local actions. This gives rise to the question: which opportunities for climate protection do cities really have in a political system of multi-level governance? This question can be illustrated using the city of Hamburg as an example for the German climate policy regime. The city aims to reduce its annual CO2 emissions by 2 million metric tons and attempts to quantify the impact of local and national policies and actions using a bottom-up monitoring approach. We therefore analyse more than 400 local actions with respect to the induced CO2 emission reductions. We also take a closer look at national and European policies and their impacts on local energy use and emissions. In total, 15 policies and instruments - broadly ranging from instruments to foster energy efficiencyin residential and non-residential buildings, in appliances and in the transport sector, to support renewable energy sources (including biofuels) and to uptake CHP - are considered. Our approach consists in measuring separately the impact of local and national policies and actions on urban CO2 emissions. While the city of Hamburg has implemented many policies and actions, our results show that, a significant proportion of its CO2 reduction is due to national policies, in the context of the German "Energiewende", which cannot or can only indirectly be influenced by the city. The results imply that local commitment and effort is essential in addressing the global challenge, yet ambitious targets can only be met in the presence of a supportive national policy framework. The analysis shows that many policies and measures implemented at national level require supportive structures and activities at local level in order to bridge information and implementation gaps of these measures.

Description: Many European city governments have voluntarily committed to ambitious CO2-emission reduction targets until 2020 and 2050. Supported by dedicated structures and networks (e.g. Covenant of Mayors), local governments have already developed, or are currently developing, ambitious climate action plans, all pursuing the aim of radical CO2-emission reduction in the long term. Though, the development of climate action plans is only a first step, as the actual crucial and more challenging part its implementation. Besides financial investments also additional capacities, improved institutional structures and innovative strategies are necessary to successfully implement ambitious policies within existing national and regional framework conditions. There is often more competition than co-operation between cities. However, exchanging on common challenges in order to find new solutions provides potential for innovative ideas and new views on own structures. In particular, methods and formats for self-assessment and mutual learning can support cities' stakeholders to overcome their implementation gap in local energy and climate policies. This paper will present results from the first phase of the three year project "CASCADE", which was initiated by 19 European cities in co-operation with EUROCITIES. Within the project, implementation challenges are being addressed in an intensive process of self-assessment and mutual learning. The methodological "backbone" of this process is a qualitative benchmarking framework in the thematic fields of "Renewable energy sources and distributed energy generation", "Energy efficient buildings and districts" and “Energy in urban transport”. Up to a certain degree, existing local climate policy benchmarks provide a common exchange platform, but mainly for the comparison between cities. The CASCADE benchmarking framework goes beyond competitive comparisons. As a qualitative criteria-based assessment procedure it identifies key challenges and factors for a successful implementation of established local climate policy plans. These factors have been developed from a qualitative survey including interviews and workshops with representatives of the participating cities. Six cities serve as examples. Self-assessment reports were provided based on the CASCADE benchmarking framework focussing on the implementation status of their local climate policies. These reports were reevaluated by four or five project partners from different cities in a desk-review process. During subsequent four-days peer learning visits, the CASCADE benchmarking framework was used again as a tool for an in-depth assessment of the local climate and energy action plans and the local activities towards implementation of these strategic documents. Finally, the visitors drafted a feedback report with recommendations and improvements for the hosts. The paper describes the methodology of the CASCADE benchmarking framework for integrated learning, its applicability for peer learning processes, as well as first experiences and results from the peer learning visits.

Description: The project "bigEE - Bridging the Information Gap on Energy Efficiency in Buildings" presents comprehensive information for energy efficiency in buildings and the related policy on the international internet-based knowledge platform bigee.net. To develop the evidence-based information required for bigee.net, we addressed in a different and more systematic way than usual the question of how policy can support improved building energy efficiency most effectively: We combined (1) a theoretical, actor-centred analysis of market-inherent barriers and incentives for all actors in the supply and use chain of (energy-efficient) buildings to derive a recommended package combining the types of policies and measures the actors need to overcome all these barriers, with (2) empirical evidence on model examples of good practice policy packages to check if advanced countries have indeed used the combination of policies we derived from the actor-centred analysis. In this way, we found that the recommendable policy package for new buildings is similar to the well-known one for appliances, but with the objective to mainstream nearly zero energy buildings. By contrast, the task for existing buildings is two-dimensional - increasing the depth of renovation first, to savings of 50 to 80%, and then the rate of energy-efficient renovation to 2% or more p.a. - and so the policy package needs more emphasis on individual advice, incentives, and financing. The paper presents the recommended packages as well as a comparison of existing national policy packages from California (USA), China, Denmark, Germany, and Tunisia and what we learned from it for effective packages and implementation.

Description: The general conditions for local authorities in Germany have changed fundamentally during the last decades. Not only do municipalities compete with each other for employment, prestige and competitive advantages, they also face increasingly higher demands by their citizens, for instance in the area of climate protection. Therefore, every municipality has to consider various economic, social and ecological determinants in its decision-making processes. With respect to public buildings, an economically-oriented cost-benefit-analysis alone is not adequate due to a municipality's role as "consumer and role model". To identify measures with a broader benefit, a multicriteria analysis (MCA) has been used to analyze energy efficiency measures in public buildings for the city of Dortmund. For several years Dortmund has committed itself to implement energy efficiency measures and improve the energy performance of its building stock. Nevertheless, a benchmark analysis still shows a high energy saving potential that cannot be tapped with the existing measures and instruments. Therefore, a package of measures has been developed in close cooperation with the city of Dortmund, ranging broadly from measures of energetic retrofitting and green IT to behavioral change of building occupants. In the MCA these measures have been assessed according to ten different criteria such as innovativeness, cost effectiveness, external costs, CO2 reduction potential, local value or effort of implementation. Three different scenarios ("City as Role Model", "City as Homo Oeconomicus", "City as Climate Protector") show different municipal perspectives. The analysis has shown that the greatest benefit for municipalities, regardless of the municipal perspective, is yielded by measures such as voluntarily enhanced minimum standards for new or for energetic retrofitting of public buildings, the procurement of energy-efficient office equipment, the expansion of heat generation from renewable energies and the usage of private capital in participatory projects like "Solar&Save".

Description: Energy efficiency of a range of domestic appliances covered by the labelling and ecodesign directives has improved significantly over the last 15 years. However, the power consumption of the German residential sector has remained relatively constant over this period. Besides other factors, such as decreasing average household size, the main reasons for this development were the increases of the types, features, size, equipment stock and usage times of appliances and devices in private households. The project "Energy Sufficiency - strategies and instruments for a technical, systemic and cultural transformation towards sustainable restriction of energy demand in the field of construction and everyday life" investigates how the complementation of energy efficiency with energy sufficiency could lead to more user adequate domestic products and product-service systems and thereby result in an absolute reduction of power consumption. In this project, energy sufficiency is defined as a strategy to reduce energy consumption by three approaches: 1. Quantitative reduction of sizes, features, usage times of devices etc. 2. Substitution of technical equipment in households by e.g.urban services. 3. Adjustment of technical services delivered by appliances toutility needed and desired by users. The energy saving effects of an application of these approaches were modelled for different types of households and the energy saving potentials of energy sufficiency quantified. Innovative approaches for user adequate products and services were developed in open innovation workshops by the Design Thinking method. The paper summarizes some of the intermediate results of theoretical and transdisciplinary investigations of the project that runs until May 31, 2016. Furthermore, a first set of design criteria for user adequate appliances enabling energy sufficiency are developed based on these results. The paper concludes with suggestions for the future development of energy labelling and ecodesign derived from the design criteria and supplemented by examples of existing requirements according to the voluntary environmental label "Blauer Engel".

Description: In the last four decades, energy efficiency increased significantly in OECD countries. However, only during the most recent years, total energy consumption started to decrease a little, and much more slowly than energy efficiency potentials would suggest. Energy sufficiency has therefore gained new attention as a way to limit and reduce total energy consumption of a household or a country overall. The project "Energiesuffizienz" funded by the German ministry for research has examined what energy sufficiency actually is, and what householders, household members but also manufacturers and local authorities could do to make electricity use in the home more sufficient. The focus of this paper is the policy part of the project - the first comprehensive analysis of an energy sufficiency policy. The objective is to find out how policy can support market actors in using the energy sufficiency options identified. As for energy efficiency policy, it starts with the gathering of potential sufficiency actions and the analysis of the relevant barriers all market actors face, to derive recommendations for which policy instruments need to be combined to an effective policy package, and which other pre-conditions have to be met. Energy efficiency and energy sufficiency should not be seen as opposed to each other but work in the same direction - saving energy. Therefore, some instruments of the energy sufficiency policy package may be the same as for energy efficiency - such as energy taxation, and linear or progressive energy prices. Some may simply adapt technology-specific energy efficiency policy instruments. Examples are progressive appliance efficiency standards, standards based on absolute consumption, or providing energy advice. However, sufficiency may also require radical new approaches particularly to mitigate the drivers of non-sufficiency. They may range from promotion of completely different services for food and clothes cleaning, to instruments for limiting average dwelling floor area per person, or to a cap-and-trade system for the total electricity sales of a supplier to its customers, instead of an energy efficiency obligation. The paper presents these and other elements of an integrated energy sufficiency policy package resulting from this analysis.

Description: The overall objective of the web-based consumer information tool Euro-Topten is to promote the market transformation towards energy efficient products. Euro-Topten informs consumers about the most energy efficient products in various categories and thereby aims to directly influence the purchasing decisions of individuals or professional buyers. Providers of internet-based information tools are confronted with the problem, that there is no bidirectional interaction with the users. Hence, it is difficult to evaluate if the specific needs of users are addressed, if and how the user processes this information and to what extent the information influences the user's decision making process. To study these questions, a web-based survey was conducted in two consecutive rounds. In the first round the survey focused on the assessment of the information tool itself and the motivation for using the Euro-Topten websites. This survey was online on all active Euro-Topten partner websites from October to December 2012. In total, 1791 users completed the survey. In the second round, a subset of the survey population was queried again. 1,043 participants agreed to take part in a more comprehensive follow up survey, 383 completed the second survey between May and July 2013. The second survey concentrated on the question how Euro-Topten has influenced the purchasing behaviour of the survey participants. This gave significant insights on how the information on the Euro-Topten websites has affected purchasing decisions of the surveyed users. Based on a comparison of performance indicators of the most efficient products recommended on the Euro-Topten websites with performance indicators of a base case product available on the market, avoided energy demand could be estimated for those users, who bought products from the Euro-Topten list. Based on these results, two impacts of Euro-Topten could be estimated: The influence of Euro-Topten on purchasing decision of users and the associated reductions in energy demand and CO2-emissions.

Description: The electric utility sector in Australia, Germany and the U.S. are all going through major changes driven by declining sales, increasing use of distributed energy sources and policy responses to global climate change. This paper discusses efforts in each of these countries to reform their electric industries, address climate change and promote energy efficiency. Going forward, we see a role for government, utilities and private market energy efficiency efforts in all three countries, although the emphasis will vary by country and will evolve over time. Where all three parties can work together with a common vision, reform efforts are likely to be more successful and more sustained. In all three countries the future is uncertain. In the face of this uncertainty, energy efficiency supporters need to keep abreast of these changes, and find more flexible and nimble policy strategies for energy efficiency to prosper, as the future is likely to unfold in unexpected ways.

Description: Following the decisions of the Paris climate conference at the end of 2015 as well as similar announcements e.g. from the G7 in Elmau (Germany) in the summer of 2015, long-term strategies aiming at (almost) full decarbonisation of the energy systems increasingly move into the focus of climate and energy policy. Deep decarbonisation obviously requires a complete switch of energy supply towards zero GHG emission sources, such as renewable energy. A large number of both global as well as national climate change mitigation scenarios emphasize that energy efficiency will likewise play a key role in achieving deep decarbonization. However, the interdependencies between a transformation of energy supply on the one hand and the role of and prospects for energy efficiency on the other hand are rarely explored in detail. This article explores these interdependencies based on a scenario for Germany that describes a future energy system relying entirely on renewable energy sources. Our analysis emphasizes that generally, considerable energy efficiency improvements on the demand side are required in order to have a realistic chance of transforming the German energy system towards 100 % renewables. Efficiency improvements are especially important if energy demand sectors will continue to require large amounts of liquid and gaseous fuels, as the production of these fuels are associated with considerable energy losses in a 100 % renewables future. Energy efficiency on the supply side will therefore differ considerably depending on how strongly the use of liquid and gaseous fuels in the various demand sectors can be substituted through the direct use of electricity. Apart from a general discussion of the role of energy efficiency in a 100 % renewable future, we also look at the role of and prospects for energy efficiency in each individual demand sector.

Description: The core objective of Energy Efficiency Watch 3 (EEW3) is to establish a constant feedback loop on the implementation of European and national energy efficiency policies and thus enable both compliance monitoring and mutual learning on effective policy making across the EU. The project team applied a mixed-method approach to assess energy efficiency policy developments in EU Member States. It analysed progress of national policies by screening official documents, sought experts' knowledge via an EU-wide survey and has been creating new consultation platforms with a wide spectrum of stakeholders including parliamentarians, regions, cities and business stakeholders. Analysis of the National Energy Efficiency Action Plans (NEEAPs), the expert survey with input from over 1,100 experts on policy ambition and progress in each Member State, as well as 28 Country Reports have been central elements in EEW3. This paper will present the main conclusions and policy recommendations of EEW3. In doing so, it will first summarise the findings of the document analysis based on the 28 Country Reports, showing developments of energy efficiency policies since the second NEEAP in 2011 in a cross-country overview for six sectors. These findings are then contrasted with the experts' perspective on progress in energy efficiency policies in their countries as collected in the EEW survey. Moreover, ten case studies of good practice energy efficiency policies are shown, three of them will be presented in more detail. The paper ends with key policy conclusions for improving the effectiveness of European energy efficiency policies. A key finding is that policy implementation has improved a lot since 2011 but more is needed to achieve the EED Art. 7 and other targets.

Description: Energy intensive industries are one of the fields in which strong increases of energy efficiency and deep decarbonisation strategies are particularly challenging. Although European energy intensive industries have already achieved significant energy and greenhouse gas reductions in the past, much remains to be done to make a significant contribution to achieving European as well as national climate mitigation targets of greenhouse gas emission reductions by -80% or more (compared to the baseline of 1990). North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) is a European hotspot for coping with this challenge, accommodating more than 10% of the energy intensive industries of the EU28. It is also the first German state to have adopted its own Climate Law, enacting state-wide CO2 emission reductions by 80% until 2050 compared to 1990. The state government initiated the project "Platform Climate Protection and Industry North-Rhine Westphalia" to identify and develop the necessary far-reaching low carbon innovation strategies for energy intensive industries. Heart of the project was a dialogue process, which involved a broad spectrum of stakeholders from steel, chemical, aluminium, cement, glass and paper producing industries. Besides enhancing and broadening the knowledge on high efficiency and low-carbon technologies within industries, the aim was to explore possible pathways and preconditions for the application of these technologies in energy intensive industries as well as to strengthen the motivation of companies for initiatives and investments in technologies with lower CO2 emissions. The results of the dialogue shall provide a basis for a possible low-carbon industry roadmap NRW and may also serve as an example for other industrialized regions in the EU and globally. The paper sketches the structured dialogue process with the stakeholders from companies as well as industrial associations and presents the learnings regarding the engagement of energy intensive industries into ambitious climate policies on a regional level. These include existing limitations as well as chances in the respective sectors on the state level, regarding their economic and technical structures as well as their innovation systems. The findings are based on more than a dozen stakeholder workshops with industry companies and more than 150 individual representatives of NRW's energy intensive industries as well as on background research in the initial phase of the project.

Description: One of the most pressing issues of climate policy is how to get building owners to invest in the energy efficiency of their homes. The German federal government has set the goal of decreasing the energy demand of buildings by 80 to 95 percent until 2050. One pillar of the strategy to support building owners in this task is the provision of targeted energy advice, to both motivate owners to implement an energy efficiency refurbishment and help them to choose the most efficient measures. In this paper we analysed the demand for energy advice in three German cities of the Ruhr area finding the number of energy consulting provided to be extremely low compared to the stated goals. Based on the approach of joint knowledge production we invited stakeholders from the three cities to participate in a series of workshops in order to develop ideas how to more effectively bring homeowners and energy advisors together. As a result, different energy advice experiments were co-operatively developed for each city targeting different groups by using tailored channels for outreach. The evaluation of both the process as well as the outcome of the experiments indicates that while joint knowledge production is a suitable approach to enable knowledge transfer and formation of new networks between different stakeholders in science and practice, it does not necessarily lead to superior approaches with regard to effectively addressing a policy issue at hand. Apart from the experiment in which the window of opportunity change of building ownership was taken advantage of, participation of target groups in the experiments has been soberingly low, underlining the value of so-called trigger points when designing effective outreach strategies to building owners.

Description: Energy efficiency improvements have numerous benefits/impacts additional to energy and greenhouse gas savings, as has been shown and analysed e.g. in the 2014 IEA Report on "Multiple Benefits of Energy Efficiency". This paper presents the Horizon 2020-project COMBI ("Calculating and Operationalising the Multiple Benefits of Energy Efficiency in Europe"), aiming at calculating the energy and non-energy impacts that a realisation of the EU energy efficiency potential would have in 2030. The project covers the most relevant technical energy efficiency improvement actions and estimates impacts of reduced air pollution (and its effects on human health, eco-systems/crops, buildings), improved social welfare (incl. disposable income, comfort, health, productivity), saved biotic and abiotic resources, and energy system, energy security, and the macroeconomy (employment, economic growth and public budget). This paper explains how the COMBI energy savings potential in the EU 2030 is being modelled and how multiple impacts are assessed. We outline main challenges with the quantification (choice of baseline scenario, additionality of savings and impacts, context dependency and distributional issues) as well as with the aggregation of impacts (e.g. interactions and overlaps) and how the project deals with them. As research is still ongoing, this paper only gives a first impression of the order of magnitude for additional multiple impacts of energy efficiency improvements may have in Europe, where this is available to date. The paper is intended to stimulate discussion and receive feedback from the academic community on quantification approaches followed by the project.

Description: A case study in the rural area of South Westphalia, Germany, showed the importance of independent intermediaries to support the development and implementation of sustainable energy and efficiency projects. The idea behind the project "Dorf ist Energie(klug)" (Village is Energy(smart)) was to foster, accompany, and support energy and efficiency projects in villages from the first idea to final implementation. Therefore, the South Westphalia Agency as independent intermediary initiated an application process in which villages could apply with their innovative energy and efficiency project ideas. During the following process the chosen "coaching villages" benefitted from the consultation of teams of thematic experts. Villages with less developed projects were supported through idea workshops with experts and study visits. The accompanying scientific study evaluated the overall process focussing on the transferability, the sustainability and the quality of the process. Furthermore, a self evaluation tool for (energy) projects in villages was developed and tested in two of the participating coaching villages. The paper gives a short insight into the project "Dorf ist Energie(klug)". It presents the methodology of the accompanying study and the results with a special focus on the role of the South Westphalia Agency as independent intermediary. Finally, it discusses the transferability and sustainability of the project.

Description: Heat integration and industrial symbiosis have been identified as key strategies to foster energy efficient and low carbon manufacturing industries (see e.g. contribution of Working Group III in IPCC's 5th assessment report). As energy efficiency potentials through horizontal and vertical integration are highly specific by site and technology they are often not explicitly reflected in national energy strategies and GHG emission scenarios. One of the reasons is that the energy models used to formulate such macro-level scenarios lack either the necessary high technical or the spatial micro-level resolution or both. Due to this lack of adequate tools the assumed huge existing potentials for energy efficiency in the energy intensive industry cannot be appropriately appreciated by national or EU level policies. Due to this background our paper describes a recent approach for a combined micro-macro energy model for selected manufacturing industries. It combines national level technical scenario modelling with a micro-modelling approach analogous to total site analysis (TSA), a methodology used by companies to analyse energy integration potentials on the level of production sites. Current spatial structures are reproduced with capacity, technical and energy efficiency data on the level of single facilities (e.g. blast furnaces) using ETS data and other sources. Based on this, both, the investments in specific technologies and in production sites are modelled and the evolvement of future structures of (interconnected) industry sites are explored in scenarios under different conditions and with different objectives (microeconomic vs. energy efficiency optimization). We further present a preliminary scenario that explores the relevance of these potentials and developments for the German steel industry.

Description: The German federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) is home to important clusters of energy-intensive basic materials industries. 15% of the EU's primary steel as well as 15% of high-value base chemicals are produced here. Together with refinery fuels, cement, lime and paper production (also overrepresented in NRW) these are the most carbon-intensive production processes of the industrial metabolism. To achieve the ambitious regional and national climate goals without relocating these clusters, carbon-neutral production will have to become standard by mid-century. We develop and evaluate three conceptual long-term scenarios towards carbon-neutral industry systems for NRW for 2050 and beyond: * a first scenario depending on carbon capture and storage or use for heavy industries (iCCS), * a second scenario sketching the direct electrification of industrial processes (and transport) and * a third scenario relying on the import of low carbon energies (e.g. biomass, and synthetic fuels (like methanol) for the use in industries and transport. All scenarios share the assumption that electricity generation will be CO2-neutral by 2050. For all three scenarios energy efficiency, primary energy demand for energy services and feedstock as well as the carbon balance are quantified. We apply a spatial-explicit analysis of production sites to allow for discussion of infrastructure re-use and net investment needs. Possible symbiotic relations between sectors are also included. The robustness of the three conceptualised future carbon-neutral industry systems is then analysed using a multi-criteria approach, including e.g. energy security issues and lock-ins on the way to 2050.

Description: Bad Hersfeld is a small city with about 30.000 inhabitants situated in the middle of Germany. Climate Protection has been on the political agenda in Bad Hersfeld since quite a while. In 1997 the Wuppertal Institute elaborated a first energy and CO2 balance for the city, which was updated in 2007. With the compilation of the CO2 balance it was shown that the emissions in Bad Hersfeld almost stayed at a constant level between 1997 and 2006. The result was sobering for the local authority. Although some single measures had been implemented, there was no improvement of the CO2-balance. It was concluded that a successful climate protection strategy needs a comprehensive concept comprising all sectors and a periodic monitoring. Bad Hersfeld commissioned the Wuppertal Institute to develop feasible measures to reduce the CO2 emissions drastically and instruments to overcome existing barriers. In a close cooperation with the City Council and the local municipal utility a climate protection concept was compiled that is rather ambitious for a city of this size. In consideration of the regional peculiarities12 concrete measures and 7 accompanying measures build the core of the concept with a main focus on energy efficiency (final energy), combined heat and power (CHP) and renewable energies. Another important part of the concept is a municipal support programme to develop the endogenous efficiency potentials and renewable energies in the region. Further to these planning instruments, information and networking activities are compiled as well as a variety of suggestions for a climate protection marketing (Wagner 2008). Some of these measures that were developed in an iterative and cooperative process between the responsible actors in Bad Hersfeld and the Wuppertal Institute are transferable to other cities and towns. The impeding factors in Bad Hersfeld like the user-investor dilemma, the low capital of small housing associations or the large stock of listed historical buildings, are typical for cities of this size.

Description: Iran is one of the largest oil producers and natural gas owners globally. However, it has to struggle with domestic energy shortages, economic losses through energy subsidisation and inefficient energy infrastructures. Furthermore, GHG and other energy related emissions are rapidly increasing and posing a growing threat to local environment as well as global climate. With current trends prevailing, Iran may even become a net energy importer over the next decades. Resource allocation is therefore a crucial challenge for Iran: domestic consumption stands versus exports of energy. The energy transformation sector clarifies Iran's dilemma: soaring electricity demand leads to blackouts, and power plant new builds are far from using most efficient technologies (e. g. CHP), therefore keeping energy intensive structures. But fossil fuels could be sold on international markets if spared by having more efficient energy infrastructures. As shown by the high energy intensity of its economy, Iran has large potentials for energy saving and efficiency. In order to highlight and better identify this potential the paper contrasts a high efficiency scenario in all sectors of energy transformation and consumption with a possible "business as usual" development. Using a bottom-up approach, the analysis provides a sector-by-sector perspective on energy saving potentials. These can be utilised on the demand side especially in the transport sector (fuels) and in households (electricity for appliances, natural gas for heating). Electricity generation bears efficiency potentials as well. We conclude that Iran, but also the international community, would benefit on various levels from a more energy-efficient Iranian economy: Energy exports could increase, generating more foreign currency and reducing the pressures on international oil and gas prices; energy consumption would decrease, leading to lower needs for nuclear energy and for subsidies to Iranian people, as well as to a reduction of the high external costs entailed by fossil fuels combustion (smog in cities, environmental stress).

Description: Based on a comprehensive scenario analysis of the EU's GHG emissions by 2020, we show that the 20% energy savings target set in the Action Plan "Doing more with less" in 2006 is still the most significant and thus indispensable strategy element within an ambitious EU climate and energy strategy targeting at a 30% reduction of GHG emissions by 2020. The scenario analysis provides a sector by sector projection of potential future energy use and GHG emissions, combined with a detailed policy analysis of the core policies on energy efficiency by the EU and its Member States taken from current research results by the authors and others. Consequently the paper identifies and quantifies the current implementation deficit in the EU and shows that, despite of sufficient targets, implementation is still significantly lacking in almost all fields of energy efficiency. Some, e.g. transport sector and buildings, are still substantially far from receiving the necessary political impetus. The paper also demonstrates co-benefits of a strong energy efficiency strategy, e.g. the achievability of the targets of the RES directive, which crucially depends on a strong efficiency policy. We conclude that the efforts of the energy efficiency policy of the EU and its Member States have to be significantly intensfied. As proposed by the EU in case that other developed and key developing countries take up comparable targets in order to fulfil its role in the climate and energy strategy. To achieve this, we offer an analysis of the current weaknesses of EU energy efficiency policy and derive recommendations on how the EU can still reach its targets for 2020.

Description: The role of cities in mitigating GHG emissions and thus tackling global warming has gained importance over the last years.Many cities have developed climate action plans, primarily to achieve long-term "low-carbon" mitigation goals set by national governments or (inter)national agreements. A mere adoption of high level targets, however, raises the question whether these targets are applicable for cities with very different framework conditions. We argue that it is crucial to understand the socio-economic, geophysical, spatial, infrastructural and political framework of a city - a broad approach, which is generally missing in climate action plans. Thus, determining drivers and barriers for future development paths is neglected by local policies, which leads to a gap between ambition (target) and reality (implementation). We exemplarily examine this hypothesis for the shrinking city of Oberhausen (Germany). Oberhausen, located in the Ruhr area,is a typical old industrial region, which has seen a decline of its industrial basis over the last decades. We analysed historical data and developed scenarios until 2030. Both show a significant decrease in CO2 emissions. A closer look, however, reveals that the reduction is primarily due to the economic transformation (less manufacturing, more service industry, accompanied by a decrease in population) and general energy efficiency developments following the implementation of national and EU policies. Although the city has implemented–and will further implement - many instruments and policies to reduce CO2 emissions, local barriers such as unemployment, low rents, low income, high per capita debts, etc. dramatically reduce the city's capacity for action. The results show that Oberhausen's emission reductions do not reflect active energy policies but are mainly driven by an economic decline. To reach ambitious reduction targets, however, the city needs to be enabled to take action in achieving appropriate and reasonable targets.

Description: Conventional new buildings in OECD countries with a history of building codes save about 50 % of energy compared to average buildings in the building stock. This improvement, however, is not enough to create a building standard with low lifetime costs nor to reach long-term climate protection targets. Much higher energy savings can already be achieved through proven high-efficiency building concepts bringing net economic benefits among other advantages. A strategic approach to integrated building design is the key to achieving these high-energy savings at low or no extra cost in residential buildings. In our paper we describe the "Easy Efficiency Approach", which can reduce primary energy consumption by 40 to 60 % compared to conventional new building standards, or by 70% to 80% when compared to the primary energy consumption of the existing building stock, and should be regarded as the minimum. This strategy focuses on low-cost options, mainly passive options. Although it can already significantly reduce energy consumption, this first step will not be sufficient to reach long-term climate protection goals. It is thus necessary to implement and support what we call an "Advanced Efficiency Approach", with savings up to 90% , as compared to new building standards, as soon as possible to avoid lock-in effects. Further improvements, especially through the active use of renewable energies, reduce the net primary energy demand to 0 % and beyond. According to the chosen strategy clearly defined energy performance ranges, with reference to possible savings, for different climate zones worldwide are given. In verifying this approach simulations with BAT (Best Available Technologies) buildings of different types (single family, multi family, high rise) were carried out in close cooperation with project partners. This data has also been verified through an empirical database of built examples both for energy consumption as well their economic soundness.

Description: The cement industry is one of the major energy consuming and CO2 emitting sectors in China. In 2010, 1,868 million tons of cement has been produced, which accounted for 56.1% of the world's total cement production. The 11th Five-Year Plan (FYP) (2006-2010) included policy measures for CO2 emission abatement in cement production. Based on the main governmental framework of CO2 mitigation policies at national level in the cement sector, key policies and technologies used during this period are identified and their effects on CO2 reduction are assessed. This paper calculates the reduction of CO2 emissions related to four main policies and technologies for efficient cement production in the 11th and the 12th FYP (2011-2015) with 2005 as a reference year. These are waste heat recovery, closing outdated facilities, substitution for clinker production and other technologies aiming to increase energy efficiency. Due to these measures, we estimate that a total CO2 emission reduction during the 11th FYP of 397 million tonnes could be saved, which is considerably different to 185.75 million tonnes estimated by Zeng (2008) and 303 million tonnes by the NDRC by using different calculation methods. Of the four technologies, the 4th group of energy efficiency increasing techniques was the most important policy and avoided the largest amount of CO2 emissions. Previous energy intensity reduction was mainly due to the outdated production closing and energy efficiency improving. Based on the assessment of technology performance, it appears that there is still a large emission reduction potential in cement production processes. The paper calculates this potential for the 12th FYP period (2011-2015) based on these four identified policy measures. The result is compared to the Chinese government targets in the 12th FYP and promising future CO2 mitigation policies and technologies are proposed, such as the use of alternative energy.

Description: Several low-carbon energy roadmaps and scenarios have recently been published by the European Commission and the International Energy Agency (IEA) as well as by various stakeholders such as Eurelectric, ECF and Greenpeace. Discussions of these studies mainly focus on technology options available on the electricity supply side and mostly omit the significant challenges that all of the scenarios impose on the energy demand side. A comparison of 5 decarbonisation scenarios from 4 of the most relevant recent scenario studies for the EU shows that all of them imply significant efficiency improvements in traditional appliances, usually well above levels historically observed over longer periods of time. At the same time they assume substantial electrification of transportation and heating. The scenarios suggest that both of these challenges need to be tackled successfully for decarbonising the energy system. With shares of renewable electricity reaching at least 60 % of supply in 2050 in almost all of the decarbonisation scenarios, the adaptation of demand to variable supply becomes increasingly important. This aspect of demand side management should therefore be part of any policy mix aiming for a low-carbon power system. Based on a quantitative analysis of 5 decarbonisation scenarios and a comparison with historical evidence we derive the (implicit) new challenges posed by the current low-carbon roadmaps and develop recommendations for energy policy on the electricity demand side.

Description: Which factors are crucial to successfully design and implement a "good practice" policy to increase the energy efficiency of buildings and appliances? This is one of the main challenges for the new web platform bigee.net that provides guidance on good practice policies. In this paper we examine the question what "good practice" is by presenting a multi-criteria assessment scheme to analyse different policies worldwide. The assessment scheme contains a set of criteria addressing key factors leading to the success of a policy as well as its outcomes: a good policy addresses all market players and barriers, avoids lost opportunities and lock-in effects, has ambitious and regularly updated energy efficiency levels, and spill-over effects. Other criteria are high energy savings and the calculated cost-effectiveness. The assessment scheme provides a standardised data collection approach, which paves the way for both qualitative and quantitative evaluation. Furthermore, it can help policy-makers to transfer a successful policy. The development of the scheme is based on a literature review of worldwide implemented policies and measures that promote energy-efficiency of buildings and appliances. Criteria were operationalized, including a ranking between 0 and 10. The ranking is a decisive factor whether the policy qualifies as good practice. To demonstrate the practicability of this scheme, the paper analyses a good practice example according to the assessment scheme: Energy-Efficient Refurbishment and Energy Efficient Construction programmes of the German public bank KfW.

Description: Refrigerators and freezers (subsumed under the term "cold appliances") are among the most widely used electrical appliances in the residential sector all around the world. Currently, about 1.4 billion domestic cold appliances worldwide use about 650 TWh electricity, which is 1.2 times Germany’s total electricity consumption, and cause CO2 emissions of 450 million tons of CO2eq. Although the specific electricity consumption per volume of cold appliances has decreased during recent years due to technical progress and policy instruments like labelling and eco-design requirements, total worldwide energy consumption of these appliances is on the increase. Scenario calculations were carried out for 10 world regions by the Wuppertal Institute. Results show that about half of the energy consumption could be saved with the most energy-efficient appliances available today, and even higher savings will be possible with next generation technologies by 2030. According to the analysis, these savings are usually very cost-effective. All these aspects are part of the new website "bigEE.net - Your guide to energy efficiency in buildings" which aims to provide information about technical options but also about policies to support the development of energy-efficient appliances. To initiate and foster market transformation of energy-efficient appliances it is highly advisable for policymakers to generate appliances-specific policy packages. Since each regional market has its specificity (e.g. energy prices, typical appliance affecting the cost effectiveness of efficient appliances), the barriers for the market transformation of single product groups are also specific and need to be addressed by appropriate policies and measures. Elements of measures to build appropriate specific policy packages for refrigerators will be presented in the paper, and the refrigerator package from California (USA) demonstrates the successful implementation of a sector-specific package.

Description: There is an increasing pressure that enhanced and novel energy technologies are swiftly adopted by the market to ensure meeting the energy and climate targets. An important issue with such novel developments is their risk to be stuck in the "valley of death", i.e. that their transition to the market is delayed or unsuccessful. Publicly supported demonstration projects could help to bridge the valley of death by reducing barriers to the adoption caused by missing information and perceived risks. A challenge for technology demonstrations in the industrial context is their often high investments that are required to prove their real-world benefits. Given the magnitude of such investments, it becomes crucial that public funding focuses on the most promising demonstration proposals. Structured evaluation processes can help to facilitate the identification of promising proposals and to improve the quality and transparency of decisions. This paper deals with a corresponding multi-staged multi-criteria decision support system (DSS) suggested to the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy. It deals with the evaluation of demonstration proposals across three stages: The first stage represents a filtering stage to identify those proposals relevant for further considerations. The second stage comprises a multi-criteria scoring method drawing on an evaluation against nineteen criteria. The final third stage serves to critically review the need for public funding of well-scored proposals. This contribution outlines the development of the DSS and its design and thus provides insights on proposal evaluating in energy research.

Description: Although the anticipated "end of cheap oil" has boosted the interest in energy efficiency as a cornerstone of energy and climate strategies, it is usually taken into account on the basis of rather narrowly defined cost-benefit considerations. As a consequence, substantial ancillary benefits are usually barely considered. In a recent study for the European Parliament (EP), the authors assessed two enhanced climate strategies compared to a more conventional strategy. One enhanced climate policy scenario relies, in particular, on raising the annual pace of energy efficiency improvement. The other aims at a radical boost of the market share of renewable energy forms, which, however, presupposes an equally radical improvement of energy efficiency. The present article presents the scenario results and places them in the context of risk characterisation of the considered climate policy scenarios. Risks of international turmoil and energy price hikes could be reduced if dependency rates for fossil fuel imports went down. A more ambitious climate policy can also strengthen the EU position in post-Kyoto global climate agreements and a moderated need for emission trading can, for example, reduce conflicting pressures on clean technology transfer. On the other hand, the implementation of the efficiency strategy will entail increased domestic risks because it will involve a re-prioritisation of resource allocation and will thus affect the current distribution of wealth in both the energy sector and some other closely related sectors. The article outlines the main drivers behind the ambitious energy efficiency scenario and it attaches tentative price tags to the ancillary effects, with special emphasis on the above sketched swapping of risks. It will, therefore, strongly argue for a more holistic view, which underscores the need for political action and the benefits of such proactive policies in favour of energy efficiency.

Description: There is an extensive potential for GHG emission reductions in the new EU member states and the EU accession countries by improving energy efficiency, investing in renewable energy supply and other measures, part of which could be tapped by JI. However, the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and especially the recently adopted "Linking Directive" is probably going to have a significant impact on this JI potential. Especially two provisions are important: The baseline of a project has to be based on the acquis communautaire, the environmental regulations of which are substantially higher than the Accession Countries' existing ones. Projects, which directly or indirectly reduce emissions from installations falling within the scope of the EU ETS, can only generate certificates if an equal number of EU allowances are cancelled. JI is thus put into direct competition with the EU ETS. In this paper we analyse the impact of these provisions first in theory and then country by country for six Central and East European countries that recently acceded the EU or are candidates for accession. As a result, we give an overview of the potential and the limitations of JI as an instrument for achieving emission reductions in the selected Accession Countries and provide important overview information to policy makers.

Description: As many other countries, Germany misses to exploit most of its large potential for cost-effective energy efficiency improvements. An organisation collecting funds and allocating them to the most (cost-)effective programmes could be a solution. Therefore, political parties and trade unions as well as environmental NGOs have called for the creation of such an Energy Efficiency Fund. A recent study by the Wuppertal Institute together with a number of partners, commissioned by the Hans Böckler Foundation, analysed the feasibility of such an institution. It has been the objective of the project, completed in March 2005, to identify the added value of an Energy Efficiency Fund, develop concrete proposals for the institutional setting and the financing of an Energy Efficiency Fund in Germany, prepare and assess the benefits and costs of a portfolio of innovative but realistic energy efficiency programmes and campaigns, which the Energy Efficiency Fund would implement, identify the effects of the fundraising and the programmes on different industries, particularly on the suppliers of energy-efficient technologies and services, and on their growth and employment perspectives, estimate the net employment effects of such an Energy Efficiency Fund and its activities. This paper presents the results and assesses the usefulness of the project and the participatory elements for increasing the acceptance of such a policy instrument.

Description: Under the framework of the UN framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC) and its Kyoto Protocol the targets and strategies for the second and third commitment period ("post-2012") have to be discussed and set in the near future. Regarding the substantial emission reductions that have to be shouldered by the industrialized nations over the next two decades it is evident that all available potentials to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have to be harnessed and that energy efficiency has to play a key role. To substantiate this we developed a comprehensive scenario analysis of the EU 25s energy system and other greenhouse gas emissions until 2020. Our analysis shows which key potentials to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions are available, by which policies and measures they are attainable and which will be benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation measures. By this analysis we show the mayor role of energy efficiency in all sectors and all member states. We demonstrate that a reduction of EU 25 greenhouse gas emissions by more than 30 % by 2020 is feasible, reasonable and - to a large extent - cost effective. We also develop a comprehensive policy package necessary to achieve ambitious Post-Kyoto targets. The scenario analysis results in a clear identification of the needed strategies, policies and measures and especially the relevance of energy efficiency to achieve the necessary ambitious greenhouse gas reduction targets. It also clearly shows the costs and the benefits of such a policy compared to a business as usual case.

Description: International consensus is growing that a transition towards a low carbon society (LCS) is needed over the next 40 years. The G8, the Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate, as well as the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, have concluded that states should prepare their own Low-emission Plans or Low-emission Development Plans and such plans are in development in an increasing number of countries. An analysis of recent long-term low emission scenarios for Germany shows that all scenarios rely heavily on a massive scale up of energy efficiency improvements based on past trends. However, in spite of the high potential that scenario developers assign to this strategy, huge uncertainty still exists in respect of where the efficiency potentials really lie, how and if they can be achieved and how much their successful implementation depends on more fundamental changes towards a more sustainable society (e.g. behavioural changes). In order to come to a better understanding of this issue we specifically examine the potential for energy efficiency in relation to particular demand sectors. Our comparative analysis shows that despite general agreement about the high importance of energy efficiency (EE), the perception on where and how to achieve it differ between the analysed scenarios. It also shows that the close nexus between energy efficiency and non-technical behavioural aspects is still little understood. This leads us to the conclusion that in order to support energy policy decisions more research should be done on energy efficiency potential. A better understanding of its potential would help energy efficiency to fulfil its role in the transition towards a LCS.

Description: The German contribution to limiting global warming to two degrees has to be - as in other developed countries, too - a reduction of 80 to 95 percent of CO2 emissions by 2050 compared to 1990. The project "Low Carbon City Wuppertal 2050" has analysed how such a drastic reduction of CO2 could be achieved on a municipal level in the transportation and residential sector by also working on the land use and material flows dimension. The focus of this paper lies on the space heating in the residential sector. Wuppertal is a city with about 350,000 inhabitants in the West of Germany. According to the CO2 balance (2007) of the city that was adjusted to the year 2010, the emissions that were caused by space heating in the residential sector remained almost the same since 1990. They decreased slightly from 693,000 tons CO2 in 1990 to 691,000 tons in 2010, although final energy use for space heating increased by about 15 percent. But the shift of energy sources especially from coal to gas avoided an increase of emissions. However, the reduction target of 95 percent means that CO2 emissions have to be reduced to 35,000 tons per year until 2050. A reference scenario shows that the city could achieve about 30 percent of the reduction required with the current trend of renewable energy development and energy efficiency measures such as retrofitting the building stock. But looking at the difficult financial conditions of the municipality as well as at the socio-economic situation of the inhabitants it becomes clear that the remaining 65 percent of the target to a 95 percent reduction will be difficult to reach and that innovative measures of energy efficiency and sufficiency1 need to be developed. But which social-ecological effects does the implementation of comprehensive climate protection measures have on the inhabitants of a city? How do people live in a "Low Carbon City"? In this paper qualitative and quantitative scenarios will be developed since the combination of both is promising to show both effects: what share could renewable energies, energy efficiency and sufficiency measures have in reaching the target of 95 percent, and how could life look like in an almost CO2 free city in Germany in 2050.

Description: In 2008, transport accounted for 27% of the world’s total final energy consumption. Currently, we are facing a rapidly expanding transport sector with continually increasing energy consumption. In the future, emerging and developing countries especially will experience an accelerated growth in transport energy demand due to rapid population growth, urbanisation and rising per capita income. The transport sector’s inefficiency and its dependency on oil will become an economic burden for these countries. They will have to face increasing crude oil prices and uncertainties regarding energy security. Thus, there is a need for an efficient transport system and particularly for decision makers in developing and emerging countries to have access to planning advice in order to identify suitable and effective measures for low-energy urban transport. To meet this demand, existing knowledge and measures about energy efficiency in urban passenger transport was compiled and a structured introduction to energy efficiency in transport is provided. The main determinates of an energy-efficient transport system are explained and strategic approaches to increase energy efficiency are outlined. Success factors and barriers for energy efficiency policies are described. The main element of the paper is an overview of different energy efficiency policies and measures for the key actors in energy-efficient transport on local and national levels. A set of measures is assigned to each actor identified. The compilation was adapted to the circumstances in developing and emerging countries and includes examples for successful implementation of several measures. Thus, the document satisfies the need for a comprehensive introduction to energy efficiency in urban transport in developing and emerging countries.

Description: Renewable energy plays a key role in the sustainable pathway towards a low carbon future and, despite new supply capacities, the transformation of the energy system also requires the adoption of a method which allows for the integration of increasing amounts of renewable energy. This requires a transition to more flexible processes at an industrial level and demand side management (DSM) is one possible way of achieving this transition. Currently, increased shares of variable renewable energy can cause the electricity supply to become more volatile and result in changes to the electricity market. In order to develop a new dynamic equilibrium to balance supply and demand, sufficient flexibility in demand is required. As adequate storage systems are not available in the short to medium term, the potential for large electricity consumers to operate flexibly is an attractive, pragmatic and feasible option. Recent studies in Germany suggest that there is significant potential for DSM in so-called "energy-intensive industries". However, the figures (which fall in the approximate range of 1,250-2,750 MW positive and 400-1,300 MW negative shiftable load) should be interpreted with caution. The range of industrial processes considered are diverse and vary from plant to plant, with the result that it is difficult to provide accurate calculations of the accumulated potential for Germany or the EU as a whole. Based on extensive surveys and panel discussions with representatives from energy-intensive industries (aluminum, cement, chemicals, iron & steel, pulp & paper), which together account for approximately one third of the industrial electricity demand in Germany, our paper provides an overview of both the opportunities and the barriers faced by DSM. One of the key findings is the possible loss in energy efficiency due to DSM: in order to decrease or increase production depending on the stability needs of the electricity system, plants and processes may no longer operate at their optimum levels. The effects on downstream production must also be taken into account in order to gain a more complete understanding of the overall effects of industrial DSM.

Description: The Port of Rotterdam is an important industrial cluster mainly comprising of oil refining, chemical manufacturing and power and steam generation. In 2015, the area accounted for 18 % of the Netherlands' total CO2 emissions. The Port of Rotterdam Authority is aware that the port's economy is heavily exposed to future global and EU decarbonization policies, as the bulk of its activities focuses on trading, handling, converting and using fossil fuels. Based on a study for the Port Authority, our paper explores possible pathways of how the industrial cluster can keep its strong market position in Europe and still reduce its CO2 emissions by 98 % by 2050. The "Biomass and CCS" scenario assumes that large amounts of biomass can be supplied sustainably and will be used in the port for power generation as well as for feedstock for refineries and the chemical industry. Fischer-Tropsch fuel generation plays an important role in this scenario, allowing the port to become a key cluster for the production of synthetic fuels and feedstocks in Western Europe. The "Closed Carbon Cycle" scenario assumes that renewables-based electricity will be used at the port to supply heat and hydrogen for the synthetic generation of feedstock for the chemical industry. The carbon required for the chemicals will stem from recycled waste. Technologies particularly needed in this scenario are water electrolysis and gasification or pyrolysis to capture carbon from waste, as well as technologies for the production of base chemicals from syngas. The paper compares both scenarios with regard to their respective technological choices and infrastructural changes. The scenarios’ particular opportunities and challenges are also discussed. Using possible future pathways of a major European petrochemical cluster as an example, the paper illustrates options for deep decarbonisation of energy intensive industries in the EU and beyond.

Description: Energy sufficiency has recently gained increasing attention as a way to limit and reduce total energy consumption of households and overall. This paper presents selected results of a research project funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research that examined the potentials and barriers for energy sufficiency with a focus on electricity in households, how household members perceive sufficiency practices, and how policymakers could support and encourage these. Bottom-up calculations for an average 2-person household in Germany yielded a total electricity savings potential from energy efficiency and sufficiency combined of theoretically up to 75 %. The continuous growth of per capita living space was identified as one important driver for additional energy consumption both for heat and electricity. The paper will present findings of a representative survey of 600 persons responsible for the housework. It revealed that a part of the households is already practicing sufficiency options or are open towards these. Up to 30 % of these households can imagine, given the right conditions and policy support, to move to a smaller dwelling or to share an apartment with others when they are older. Results of a first comprehensive analysis of an energy sufficiency policy to encourage and support households to sufficiency practices form the second part of the paper, with a focus on the feasibility and potential effectiveness of instruments for limiting the growth in average living space per person. This includes a case study on fostering communal housing projects as a measure to reduce living space. Further, the feasibility of a cap scheme for the total electricity sales of a supplier to its customers was examined. Instruments supporting energy-efficient and sufficient purchase and use of equipment complete the integrated energy sufficiency and efficiency policy package. The paper will finally present the project's conclusions on an integrated energy sufficiency policy package resulting from this analysis.

Description: Energy efficiency activities are high on the current EU energy policy agenda. Key policy instruments like the Energy Efficiency Directive (EED), the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) and the Energy Labelling Directive are under revision. In a project for the German government, we therefore analysed the effectiveness and consistency of existing sectoral policy packages anew, to open the discussion on which policy changes to the EU's energy efficiency policy packages are crucial to reach the targets. This comprehensive review addressed the industrial, buildings, and transport sectors plus the overarching governance framework (targets and roadmaps, EED, energy taxation and EU ETS). For each of these, the first step was a gap analysis of the main deficits in the sectoral policy packages, against effective model packages. At first glance, the combination of energy efficiency policies at EU level seems already quite comprehensive. However, their design and implementation often lack a consistent and ambitious approach to leverage their full potential. To give some examples of the many shortcomings identified, the governance framework suffers from exceptions and the transport sector being only marginally considered in the EED; an outdated Energy Tax Directive has very low minimum rates and several exception clauses; there is a lack of commitment to implement energy management systems and investment projects in large companies; a clear EU-wide definition of nearly zero energy buildings (nZEB) is missing; and the labelling of energy-using products is still confusing for consumers. Subsequently, we elaborated comprehensive policy recommendations to increase the effectiveness of all these policies, and to bridge some gaps with new policies. A list of priorities was established to sort them by their relevance.

Description: Converting electricity into heat offers the opportunity to make of use large scales of renewable (surplus) energy in the long run in order to reduce shut-downs of renewable power plants and to substitute fossil fuels. Electrification seems to be also very promising for industrial heat applications, as it enables high process temperatures to be achieved in a tailor-made and efficient way and enables the utilisation of other energy sources like waste heat, geothermal or ambient heat (via heat pumps). This article analyses theoretical and technical electrification potentials of Steam Generation and Other Process Heat Generation in the following energy-intensive branches: iron & steel, non-ferrous metal, iron foundries, refineries, base chemicals, glass, cement clinker and paper industry in Germany. Literature research, expert interviews as well as own modelling were conducted to determine potentials and their implementation barriers. Based on these methods, market potential to electrify industrial steam generation was estimated. On the basis of two climate protection scenarios, the effects of both a monovalent and a hybrid industrial power-to-heat strategy were quantified with regard to greenhouse gas reduction and energy efficiency (primary energy saving). The pathway towards electrification will be reflected by criteria such as path dependency, dependency of infrastructure and system compatibility. Recommendations for research and development as well as policies are derived from the overall analysis. The article shows that electrification can be an important option to achieving high CO2-savings in the industrial heating sector in a long-term perspective. However, the scenario calculations show that electrification does not in itself guarantee reduction of greenhouse gases or savings of primary energy. To reach these goals, it is essential to further develop industrial heat pumps and to map electrification and further development of renewable energy (including infrastructure such as power networks and storage facilities) in a concerted strategy.

Description: This paper draws upon an extensive transdisciplinary scenario development in the context of the stakeholder oriented preparation of the climate protection plan of the German federal state North Rhine-Westphalia, which is home to the most important heavy industry cluster in Europe. In that context we developed differentiated bottom up climate change mitigation strategies and scenarios for the major energy intensive industries aluminium, iron and steel, cement, lime, paper and steam cracker for olefin production together with representatives of industry as well as society.

Description: After a wave of privatizations in the end of the 1990s, the electrical power supply of many municipalities in Germany has been returned into public hands. Many municipalities discover chances and possibilities for local action, which arise with remunicipalisation. The local policy-makers realize that remunicipalisation offers the opportunity of implementing an independent energy policy at local level which is critical in creating a transformation to a sustainable energy system based on energy efficiency and renewable energies. The municipal ownership allows a strong governance towards more political influence in the local energy market. In addition, there is a clear opinion of the population: 81 % of citizens surveyed say they trust their local municipal utility, compared to only 26 % who say they trust corporations (VKU-Survey, 2010). In summary, there are many good reasons for local politicians to establish their own municipal utilities. The payback for municipalities is tangible when the local utility focuses on reliably providing affordable energy rather than on increasing its returns. The new municipal power utilities stimulate competition and contribute to the renewal / restructuring of the traditional energy market. The founding of 72 municipal utilities since 2005 leads us to ask for the reasons. The study reviews the German trend towards municipal ownership of local utilities, assessing their performance based on 10 targets related to the energy transition, climate protection, and the local economic impact: 1. Achieving environmental objectives and organization of the local "Energiewende". 2. Higher local added value. 3. Harnessing tax regulations for improving municipal services. 4. Improving the income situation of the city. 5. Democratization of supply and stronger orientation towards the common good (public value). 6. Creating and protecting good jobs. 7. Acting in social responsibility in energy supply. 8. Expansion of eco-efficient energy services. 9. Harnessing customer relations and public image. 10. Materialising synergies with other sectors. Based on expert opinions, the study finds out that the likelihood of these targets being reached is "high to very high". The aim of this article is to provide a compact and basic understanding of the possible reasons for the phenomenon of remunicipalisation.

Description: The efficiency strategy to exploit the potential for energy savings in buildings still is applied rather slowly in most countries. In addition, there are indications that energy savings are partly compensated particularly by wealth but also rebound effects, the "empty nest" (persistence of elderly people and couples in family homes), and cohort effects (e.g. vintages of people or buildings). In Germany, as in other European countries, the existing trend in housing is a continuously growing floor space per capita. Over the last decades it expanded from about 20 m2 in 1960 to currently 45 m2 per person. Forecasts expect a further increase to more than 50 m2 per person. Obviously, more floor space needs more energy for space heating and cooling, ventilation, and lighting, but it also allows the household to operate more and or bigger appliances, all of which increase energy consumption. On the other hand, housing projects emerge offering relatively small private living spaces in combination with various shared spaces to use. Many of them are based on private initiatives. But what is the motivation behind it? And is there a higher need for new living concepts in the future? The proposed paper presents main drivers of increasing floor space per capita in Germany and discusses the question if more space is necessary for higher comfort. It presents different examples of housing concepts that strive to achieve good living with less space and suggests a "building typology of sufficiency". Finally, the paper discusses qualitatively to which extent these housing concepts can lead to less energy use and emissions. In this way sufficiency could be best friend with efficiency and tackle wealth, rebound, and other effects that counter-act efficiency progress. But therefore, as the paper concludes, politics and policies should recognise sufficiency as a field of action instead of referring to individual decisions and lifestyles.

Description: Skarn deposits are found on every continents and were formed at different times from Precambrian to Tertiary. Typically, the formation of a skarn is induced by a granitic intrusion in carbonates-rich sedimentary rocks. During contact metamorphism, fluids derived from the granite interact with the sedimentary host rocks, which results in the formation of calc-silicate minerals at the expense of carbonates. Those newly formed minerals generally develop in a metamorphic zoned aureole with garnet in the proximal and pyroxene in the distal zone. Ore elements contained in magmatic fluids are precipitated due to the change in fluid composition. The temperature decrease of the entire system, due to the cooling of magmatic fluids and the entering of meteoric water, allows retrogression of some prograde minerals. The Hämmerlein skarn deposit has a multi-stage history with a skarn formation during regional metamorphism and a retrogression of primary skarn minerals during the granitic intrusion. Tin was mobilized during both events. The 340 Ma old tin-bearing skarn minerals show that tin was present in sediments before the granite intrusion, and that the first Sn enrichment occurred during the skarn formation by regional metamorphism fluids. In a second step at ca. 320 Ma, tin-bearing fluids were produced with the intrusion of the Eibenstock granite. Tin, which has been added by the granite and remobilized from skarn calc-silicates, precipitated as cassiterite. Compared to clay or marl, the skarn is enriched in Sn, W, In, Zn, and Cu. These metals have been supplied during both regional metamorphism and granite emplacement. In addition, the several isotopic and chemical data of skarn samples show that the granite selectively added elements such as Sn, and that there was no visible granitic contribution to the sedimentary signature of the skarn The example of Hämmerlein shows that it is possible to form a tin-rich skarn without associated granite when tin has already been transported from tin-bearing sediments during regional metamorphism by aqueous metamorphic fluids. These skarns are economically not interesting if tin is only contained in the skarn minerals. Later alteration of the skarn (the heat and fluid source is not necessarily a granite), however, can lead to the formation of secondary cassiterite (SnO2), with which the skarn can become economically highly interesting.

Description: Skarn-Lagerstätten befinden sich auf allen Kontinenten und wurden zu unterschiedlichen Zeiten vom Präkambrium bis zum Tertiär gebildet. Typischerweise wird die Bildung eines Skarns durch die Intrusion eines Granits in karbonatreiche Sedimentgesteine induziert. Während der Kontaktmetamorphose reagieren die Fluide aus dem Granit mit dem sedimentären Wirtgestein, was zur Bildung von Kalksilikaten auf Kosten von Karbonaten führt. Diese neu gebildeten Minerale entwickeln sich im Allgemeinen in einer metamorph zonierten Aureole mit Granat im proximalen und Pyroxen im distalen Bereich. Erzelemente die in magmatischen Fluiden enthalten sind werden aufgrund der veränderten Fluidzusammensetzung ausgefällt. Die Temperaturabsenkung des gesamten Systems, hervorgerufen durch die Abkühlung von magmatischen Fluiden sowie durch das Eindringen meteorischen Wassers, führen zu teilweisen oder vollständigen Umwandlung prograder Minerale. Die Skarn-Lagerstätte Hämmerlein hat eine mehrstufige Geschichte mit Skarnsbildung während der regionalen Metamorphose und Retrogression der primären Skarn-Minerale während der Intrusion von Graniten. Zinn wurde während beiden Ereignissen mobilisiert. Die 340 Ma alten zinnhaltigen Skarnminerale zeigen, dass Zinn in Sedimenten bereits vor dem Graniteintrag vorhanden war, und dass die erste Sn-Anreicherung während der Bildung des Skarns durch Fluide der Regionalmetamorphose stattfand. In einem zweiten Schritt um 320 Ma wurden Zinn-haltige Fluide durch die Intrusion des Eibenstockgranits freigesetzt. Diese Fluide überprägten den Skarn. Das freisetzen und das neu zugefügte Zinn ist in Kassiterit gebunden und führten dem System zusätzliches Zinn zu, wobei Zinn aus den Skarn-Kalksilikaten remobilisiert wurde. Im Vergleich zu Tonstein oder Mergel sind die Skarn mit Sn, W, In, Zn, und Cu angereichet. Diese Metalle sind während der Regionalmetamorphose und der Granitplatznahme zu unterschiedlichen Teilen zugeführt worden. Darüber hinaus zeigen die verschiedenen isotopen und chemischen Daten der Skarn-Proben, dass der Granit selektiv einige Elemente wie Sn hinzugefügt, und dass es keinen sichtbar granitischen Beitrag zur sedimentären Signatur des Skarns gab. Das Beispiel Hämmerlein zeigt, dass es möglich ist einen zinnreichen Skarn ohne zugehörigen Granit zu bilden, wenn Zinn von zinnhaltigen Sedimenten während einer Regionalmetamorphose mit wässrigen metamorphen Fluiden transportiert worden ist. Diese Skarne sind wirtschaftlich uninterssant wenn das Zinn nur in den Skarn-Mineralen enthalten ist. Spätere Umwandlung des Skarns (die Quelle der Wärme und Fluiden ist nicht unbedingt ein Granit) kann jedoch zur Bildung von sekundärem Kassiterite (SnO2) führen, womit der Skarn plötzlich wirtschaftlich hoch interessant sein kann.

Description: Earthquake swarms are characterized by large numbers of events occurring in a short period of time within a confined source volume and without significant mainshock aftershock pattern as opposed to tectonic sequences. Intraplate swarms in the absence of active volcanism usually occur in continental rifts as for example in the Eger Rift zone in North West Bohemia, Czech Republic. A common hypothesis links event triggering to pressurized fluids. However, the exact causal chain is often poorly understood since the underlying geotectonic processes are slow compared to tectonic sequences. The high event rate during active periods challenges standard seismological routines as these are often designed for single events and therefore costly in terms of human resources when working with phase picks or computationally costly when exploiting full waveforms. This methodological thesis develops new approaches to analyze earthquake swarm seismicity as well as the underlying seismogenic volume. It focuses on the region of North West (NW) Bohemia, a well studied, well monitored earthquake swarm region. In this work I develop and test an innovative approach to detect and locate earthquakes using deep convolutional neural networks. This technology offers great potential as it allows to efficiently process large amounts of data which becomes increasingly important given that seismological data storage grows at increasing pace. The proposed deep neural network trained on NW Bohemian earthquake swarm records is able to locate 1000 events in less than 1 second using full waveforms while approaching precision of double difference relocated catalogs. A further technological novelty is that the trained filters of the deep neural network’s first layer can be repurposed to function as a pattern matching event detector without additional training on noise datasets. For further methodological development and benchmarking, I present a new toolbox to generate realistic earthquake cluster catalogs as well as synthetic full waveforms of those clusters in an automated fashion. The input is parameterized using constraints on source volume geometry, nucleation and frequency-magnitude relations. It harnesses recorded noise to produce highly realistic synthetic data for benchmarking and development. This tool is used to study and assess detection performance in terms of magnitude of completeness Mc of a full waveform detector applied to synthetic data of a hydrofracturing experiment at the Wysin site, Poland. Finally, I present and demonstrate a novel approach to overcome the masking effects of wave propagation between earthquake and stations and to determine source volume attenuation directly in the source volume where clustered earthquakes occur. The new event couple spectral ratio approach exploits high frequency spectral slopes of two events sharing the greater part of their rays. Synthetic tests based on the toolbox mentioned before show that this method is able to infer seismic wave attenuation within the source volume at high spatial resolution. Furthermore, it is independent from the distance towards a station as well as the complexity of the attenuation and velocity structure outside of the source volume of swarms. The application to recordings of the NW Bohemian earthquake swarm shows increased P phase attenuation within the source volume (Qp 〈 100) based on results at a station located close to the village Luby (LBC). The recordings of a station located in epicentral proximity, close to Nový Kostel (NKC), show a relatively high complexity indicating that waves arriving at that station experience more scattering than signals recorded at other stations. The high level of complexity destabilizes the inversion. Therefore, the Q estimate at NKC is not reliable and an independent proof of the high attenuation finding given the geometrical and frequency constraints is still to be done. However, a high attenuation in the source volume of NW Bohemian swarms has been postulated before in relation to an expected, highly damaged zone bearing CO 2 at high pressure. The methods developed in the course of this thesis yield the potential to improve our understanding regarding the role of fluids and gases in intraplate event clustering.

Description: Erdbebenschwärme zeichnen sich durch eine große Anzahl an Ereignissen in einem relativ kleinen Zeitraum und Volumen aus. Im Gegensatz zu tektonischen Sequenzen ist in der Regel keine signifikantes Muster von Vor- und Nachbeben erkennbar. In Abwesenheit aktiven Vulkanismusses, kommen Erdbebenschwärme innerhalb kontinentaler Platten häufg an kontinentalen Verwerfungen vor, wie Beispielsweise im Bereich des Egergrabens im nordböhmischen Becken (Tschechien). Eine übliche Hypothese verbindet den Erdbebenentstehungsprozess mit Hochdruckfluiden. Der exakte kausale Zusammenhang ist jedoch häufig enigmatisch, da die zugrundeliegenden geotektonischen Prozesse im Vergleich zu tektonischen Sequenzen relativ langsam sind. Die hohe Erdbebenrate während aktiver Phasen stellt hohe Anforderungen an etablierte seismologische Routinen da diese häufg für Einzelereignisse konzipiert sind. So können sie einen hohen Aufwand bei manueller Selektion seismischer Phasen (picking) bedeuten oder rechenerisch aufwändig sein wenn volle Wellenformen verarbeitet werden sollen. Im Rahmen dieser methodologischen Thesis werden neue Ansätze zur Analyse seismischer Schwärme, sowie des zugrundeliegenden seismogenen Volumens entwickelt. Der Fokus liegt hierbei auf der gut untersuchten und überwachten nordböhmischen Schwarmregion. Ich entwickle und teste in dieser Arbeit einen innovativen Ansatz zur Detektion und Lokalisation von Erdbeben basierend auf einem tiefen konvolvierenden neuronalen Netzwerk. Diese Technologie bietet großes Potential da sie es erlaubt große Datenmengen effizient zu verarbeiten was durch die zunehmenden Datenmengen seismologischer Datenzentren immer weiter an Bedeutung gewinnt. Das entwickelte tiefe neuronale Netzwerk, trainiert auf Aufnahmen nordböhmischer Erdbebenschwärme, ist in der Lage 1000 Eregnisse in weniger als 1 Sekunde bei Verwendung voller Wellenformen zu lokalisieren und erreicht eine Präzision die vergleichbar ist mit der Genauigkeit eines Katalogs, der mittels Doppelte Differenzen Methode relokalisiert wurde. Eine weitere technologische Neuheit ist, dass die trainierten Filter der ersten Schicht des tiefen neuronalen Netzwerkes als Mustererkennungsfilter umfunktioniert werden und damit als Ereignisdetektor dienen können, ohne, dass zuvor explizit auf Rauschdaten trainiert werden muss. Für die weitere technologische Entwicklung stelle ich ein neues, automatisiertes Werkzeug für die synthetisierung realistischer Erdbebenschwarmkataloge, sowie hierauf basierender synthetischer voller Wollenform vor. Die Eingabeparameter werden durch die Geometrie des Quellvolumens, der Nukleationscharakteristik und Magnitude-Häufigkeitsverteilung definiert. Weiter können Rauschsignale realer Daten verwendet werden um äußerst realistische synthetische Daten zu generieren. Dieses Werkzeug wird verwendet um die Vollständigkeitmagnitude eines Detektors für volle Wellenformen anhand synthetischer Daten zu evaluieren. Die synthetisierten Daten sind Motiviert durch ein Hydrofrackingexperiment in Wysin (Polen). Des Weiteren stelle ich einen neuen Ansatz vor, der die Effekte der Wellenausbreitung zwischen Erdbeben und Stationen ausblendet und die Bestimmung der Dämpfung unmittelbar im Quellvolumen von Schwarmerdbeben erlaubt. Diese neue Methode benutzt das hochfrequente spektrale Verhältnis von Ereignispaaren mit gemeinsamen Strahlenwegen. Synthetische Tests zeigen, dass die Methode in der Lage ist die Dämpfung innerhalb des Quellvolumens mit hoher räumlicher Genauigkeit zu bestimmen. Weiter ist sie im Einzelnen unabhängig von der Entfernung zwischen Ereignis und Station als auch von der Komplexität der Dämpfungs und Geschwindigkeitsstruktur außerhalb des Quellvolumens. Die Anwendung auf Daten des nordböhmischen Erdbebenschwarms zeigt eine erhöhte P Phasen Dämpfung im Quellvolumen (Qp 〈 100) basierend auf Daten einer Station in der Nähe des Dorfes Luby (LBC). Die Wellenformen einer Station in unmittelbarer epizentraler Nähe, bei Novy Kostel (NKC), weisen eine relativ hohe Komplexität auf, was darauf hindeutet, dass seismische Wellen, die diese Station erreichen relativ stark gestreut werden im Vergleich zu anderen Stationen. Das hohe Maß an Komplexität destabilisiert die Methode und führt zu ungenauen Schätzungen an der Station NKC. Daher bedarf es einer weiteren unabhängigen Validierung der hohen Dämpfung bei gegebenen geometrischen und spektralen Voraussetzungen. Nichtsdestoweniger wurde bereits eine hohe Dämpfung im Quellvolumen der nordböhmischen Schwärme postuliert und erwartet, insbesondere im Zusammenhang mit einer Zone hoher Brüchigkeit die CO2 bei hohen Drücken beinhaltet. Die Methoden die im Rahmen dieser Thesis entwickelt werden haben das Potential unser Verständnis bezüglich der Rolle von Fluiden und Gasen bei Erdbebenschärmen innerhalb kontinentaler Platten zu verbessern.

Description: Partial melting is a first order process for the chemical differentiation of the crust (Vielzeuf et al., 1990). Redistribution of chemical elements during melt generation crucially influences the composition of the lower and upper crust and provides a mechanism to concentrate and transport chemical elements that may also be of economic interest. Understanding of the diverse processes and their controlling factors is therefore not only of scientific interest but also of high economic importance to cover the demand for rare metals. The redistribution of major and trace elements during partial melting represents a central step for the understanding how granite-bound mineralization develops (Hedenquist and Lowenstern, 1994). The partial melt generation and mobilization of ore elements (e.g. Sn, W, Nb, Ta) into the melt depends on the composition of the sedimentary source and melting conditions. Distinct source rocks have different compositions reflecting their deposition and alteration histories. This specific chemical “memory” results in different mineral assemblages and melting reactions for different protolith compositions during prograde metamorphism (Brown and Fyfe, 1970; Thompson, 1982; Vielzeuf and Holloway, 1988). These factors do not only exert an important influence on the distribution of chemical elements during melt generation, they also influence the volume of melt that is produced, extraction of the melt from its source, and its ascent through the crust (Le Breton and Thompson, 1988). On a larger scale, protolith distribution and chemical alteration (weathering), prograde metamorphism with partial melting, melt extraction, and granite emplacement are ultimately depending on a (plate-)tectonic control (Romer and Kroner, 2016). Comprehension of the individual stages and their interaction is crucial in understanding how granite-related mineralization forms, thereby allowing estimation of the mineralization potential of certain areas. Partial melting also influences the isotope systematics of melt and restite. Radiogenic and stable isotopes of magmatic rocks are commonly used to trace back the source of intrusions or to quantify mixing of magmas from different sources with distinct isotopic signatures (DePaolo and Wasserburg, 1979; Lesher, 1990; Chappell, 1996). These applications are based on the fundamental requirement that the isotopic signature in the melt reflects that of the bulk source from which it is derived. Different minerals in a protolith may have isotopic compositions of radiogenic isotopes that deviate from their whole rock signature (Ayres and Harris, 1997; Knesel and Davidson, 2002). In particular, old minerals with a distinct parent-to-daughter (P/D) ratio are expected to have a specific radiogenic isotope signature. As the partial melting reaction only involves selective phases in a protolith, the isotopic signature of the melt reflects that of the minerals involved in the melting reaction and, therefore, should be different from the bulk source signature. Similar considerations hold true for stable isotopes.

Description: Partielle Schmelzbildung ist ein zentraler Prozess für die geochemische Differentiation der Erdkruste (Vielzeuf et al., 1990). Die Umverteilung chemischer Elemente während der Schmelzbildung beeinflusst die Zusammensetzung der oberen und unteren Erdkruste entscheidend und stellt einen Mechanismus zur Konzentration und zum Transport chemischer Elemente dar. Das Verständnis der diversen Prozesse und der kontrollierenden Faktoren ist deshalb nicht nur von wissenschaftlichem Interesse sondern auch von ökonomischer Bedeutung um die Nachfrage für seltene Metalle zu decken. Die Umverteilung von Haupt- und Spurenelementen während des partiellen Aufschmelzens ist ein entscheidender Schritt für das Verständnis wie sich granitgebundene Lagerstätten bilden (Hedenquist and Lowenstern, 1994). Die Schmelzbildung und die Mobilisierung von Erz-Elementen (z. B. Sn, W, Nb, Ta) in die Schmelze hängt von der Zusammensetzung der sedimentären Ausgangsgesteine und den Schmelzbedingungen ab. Verschiedene Ausgangsgesteine haben aufgrund ihrer Ablagerungs- und Verwitterungsgeschichte unterschiedliche Zusammensetzungen. Dieses spezifische geochemische „Gedächtnis“ resultiert in unterschiedlichen Mineralparagenesen und Schmelzreaktionen in verschiedenen Ausgangsgesteinen während der prograden Metamorphose. (Brown and Fyfe, 1970; Thompson, 1982; Vielzeuf and Holloway, 1988). Diese Faktoren haben nicht nur einen wichtigen Einfluss auf die Verteilung chemischer Elemente während der Schmelzbildung, sie beeinflussen auch das Volumen an Schmelze, die Extraktion der Schmelze aus dem Ausgangsgestein und deren Aufstieg durch die Erdkruste (Le Breton and Thompson, 1988). Auf einer grösseren Skala unterliegen die Verteilung der Ausgangsgesteine und deren chemische Alteration (Verwitterung), die prograde Metamorphose mit partieller Schmelzbildung, Schmelzextraktion und die Platznahme granitischer Intrusionen einer plattentektonischen Kontrolle. Das Verständnis der einzelnen Schritte und deren Wechselwirkungen ist entscheidend um zu verstehen wie granitgebunden Lagerstätten entstehen und erlaubt es, das Mineralisierungspotential bestimmter Gebiete abzuschätzen. Partielles Aufschmelzen beeinflusst auch die Isotopensystematik der Schmelze und des Restites. Die Zusammensetzungen radiogener und stabiler Isotopen von magmatischen Gesteinen werden im Allgemeinen dazu verwendet um deren Ursprungsgesteine zu identifizieren oder um Mischungsprozesses von Magmen unterschiedlichen Ursprunges zu quantifizieren (DePaolo and Wasserburg, 1979; Lesher, 1990; Chappell, 1996). Diese Anwendungen basieren auf der fundamentalen Annahme, dass die Isotopenzusammensetzung der Schmelze derjenigen des Ausgangsgesteines entspricht. Unterschiedliche Minerale in einem Gestein können unterschiedliche, vom Gesamtgestein abweichende, Isotopenzusammensetzungen haben (Ayres and Harris, 1997; Knesel and Davidson, 2002). Insbesondere für alte Minerale, mit einem unterschiedlichen Mutter-Tochter Nuklidverhältnis, ist eine spezifische Isotopenzusammensetzung zu erwarten. Da im partiellen Schmelzprozess nur bestimmte Minerale eines Gesteines involviert sind, entspricht die Isotopenzusammensetzung der Schmelze derjenigen der Minerale welche an der Schmelzreaktion teilnehmen. Daher sollte die Isotopenzusammensetzung der Schmelze von derjenigen des Ursprungsgesteines abweichen. Ähnliche Überlegungen treffen auch für stabile Isotopen zu.

Description: The Central Andes host large reserves of base and precious metals. The region represented, in 2017, an important part of the worldwide mining activity. Three principal types of deposits have been identified and studied: 1) porphyry type deposits extending from central Chile and Argentina to Bolivia, and Northern Peru, 2) iron oxide-copper-gold (IOCG) deposits, extending from central Peru to central Chile, and 3) epithermal tin polymetallic deposits extending from Southern Peru to Northern Argentina, which compose a large part of the deposits of the Bolivian Tin Belt (BTB). Deposits in the BTB can be divided into two major types: (1) tin-tungsten-zinc pluton-related polymetallic deposits, and (2) tin-silver-lead-zinc epithermal polymetallic vein deposits. Mina Pirquitas is a tin-silver-lead-zinc epithermal polymetallic vein deposit, located in north-west Argentina, that used to be one of the most important tin-silver producing mine of the country. It was interpreted to be part of the BTB and it shares similar mineral associations with southern pluton related BTB epithermal deposits. Two major mineralization events related to three pulses of magmatic fluids mixed with meteoric water have been identified. The first event can be divided in two stages: 1) stage I-1 with quartz, pyrite, and cassiterite precipitating from fluids between 233 and 370 °C and salinity between 0 and 7.5 wt%, corresponding to a first pulse of fluids, and 2) stage I-2 with sphalerite and tin-silver-lead-antimony sulfosalts precipitating from fluids between 213 and 274 °C with salinity up to 10.6 wt%, corresponding to a new pulse of magmatic fluids in the hydrothermal system. The mineralization event II deposited the richest silver ores at Pirquitas. Event II fluids temperatures and salinities range between 190 and 252 °C and between 0.9 and 4.3 wt% respectively. This corresponds to the waning supply of magmatic fluids. Noble gas isotopic compositions and concentrations in ore-hosted fluid inclusions demonstrate a significant contribution of magmatic fluids to the Pirquitas mineralization although no intrusive rocks are exposed in the mine area. Lead and sulfur isotopic measurements on ore minerals show that Pirquitas shares a similar signature with southern pluton related polymetallic deposits in the BTB. Furthermore, the major part of the sulfur isotopic values of sulfide and sulfosalt minerals from Pirquitas ranges in the field for sulfur derived from igneous rocks. This suggests that the main contribution of sulfur to the hydrothermal system at Pirquitas is likely to be magma-derived. The precise age of the deposit is still unknown but the results of wolframite dating of 2.9 ± 9.1 Ma and local structural observations suggest that the late mineralization event is younger than 12 Ma.

Description: Die zentralen Anden beherbergen große Reserven von unedlen und Edelmetallen. Die Region war 2017 ein wichtiger Teil der weltweiten Bergbautätigkeit. Bisher wurden drei Hauptlagerstätten identifiziert und untersucht: 1) Porphyr-Lagerstätten, die sich von Zentralchile und Argentinien bis Bolivien und Nord-Peru erstrecken; 2) Eisenoxid-Kupfer-Gold-Lagerstätten (IOCG), die sich von Zentralperu bis Zentralchile ausdehnen, sowie 3) polymetallische epithermale Zinnlagerstätten, die sich von Südperu bis nach Nordargentinien erstrecken und einen Großteil der Lagerstätten des bolivianischen Zinngürtels (Bolivian Tin Belt - BTB) bilden. Lagerstätten im BTB können in zwei Haupttypen unterteilt werden: (1) polymetallische Lagerstätten aus Zinn-Wolfram-Zink im Zusammenhang mit Plutonen und (2) polymetallische Zinn-Silber-Blei-zink Anlagerungen in epithermalen gangförmigen Lagerstätten. Mina Pirquitas ist eine epithermale Zinn-Silber-Blei-Zink-Polymetallvenenlagerstätte im Nordwesten Argentiniens, die früher eine der wichtigsten Zinnsilber-Mine meines Landes war. Es wurde als Teil der BTB interpretiert und hat ähnliche Mineralstoffverbände mit südlichen Pluton-bezogenen BTB-Epithermalvorkommen. Es wurden zwei bedeutende Mineralisierungsereignisse identifiziert, die sich auf drei mit meteorischem Wasser gemischte magmatische Fluide beziehen. Das erste Ereignis kann in zwei Stufen unterteilt werden: 1) Stufe I-1, wobei Quarz, Pyrit und Cassiterit aus Fluiden zwischen 233 und 370 ° C und einem Salzgehalt zwischen 0 und 7,5 Gew .-% ausfallen, entsprechend einem ersten Flüssigkeitsimpuls, und 2) Stufe I-2 mit Sphalerit und Zinn-Silber-Blei-Antimonsulfosalzen, die aus Fluiden zwischen 213 und 274 ° C mit einem Salzgehalt von bis zu 10,6 Gew .-% ausfallen, was einem neuen Impuls magmatischer Fluiden im hydrothermalen System entspricht. Durch die Mineralisierung II wurden die reichsten Silbererze bei Pirquitas abgelagert. Die Temperaturen und Salzgehalte von Event II liegen zwischen 190 und 252 ° C bzw. zwischen 0,9 und 4,3 Gew .-%. Dies entspricht der abnehmenden Versorgung mit magmatischen Fluiden. Edelgasisotopenzusammensetzungen und -konzentrationen in mit Erz beherbergten Flüssigkeitseinschlüssen zeigen einen signifikanten Beitrag magmatischer Fluiden zur Pirquitas-Mineralisierung, obwohl keine intrusiven Gesteine im Minengebiet exponiert sind. Messungen von Blei- und Schwefelisotopen an Erzmineralien zeigen, dass Pirquitas eine ähnliche Signatur mit südlichen Pluton-verwandten polymetallischen Lagerstätten in der BTB teilt. Darüber hinaus liegt der größte Teil der Schwefelisotopenwerte von Sulfid- und Sulfosaltmineralien aus Pirquitas im Bereich von Schwefel aus magmatischem Gestein. Dies deutet darauf hin, dass der Hauptbeitrag von Schwefel zum hydrothermalen System bei Pirquitas wahrscheinlich aus Magma stammt. Das genaue Alter der Lagerstätte ist noch nicht bekannt, aber die Ergebnisse der Wolframit-Datierung von 2,9 ± 9,1 Ma und lokalen Strukturbeobachtungen legen nahe, dass die späten Mineralisierungsereignisse jünger als 12 Ma sind.

Description: Seismological agencies play an important role in seismological research and seismic hazard mitigation by providing source parameters of seismic events (location, magnitude, mechanism), and keeping these data accessible in the long term. The availability of catalogues of seismic source parameters is an important requirement for the evaluation and mitigation of seismic hazards, and the catalogues are particularly valuable to the research community as they provide fundamental long-term data in the geophysical sciences. This work is well motivated by the rising demand for developing more robust and efficient methods for routine source parameter estimation, and ultimately generation of reliable catalogues of seismic source parameters. Specifically, the aim of this work is to develop some methods to determine hypocentre location and temporal evolution of seismic sources based on regional and teleseismic observations more accurately, and investigate the potential of these methods to be integrated in near real-time processing. To achieve this, a location method that considers several events simultaneously and improves the relative location accuracy among nearby events has been provided. This method tries to reduce the biasing effects of the lateral velocity heterogeneities (or equivalently to compensate for limitations and inaccuracies in the assumed velocity model) by calculating a set of timing corrections for each seismic station. The systematic errors introduced into the locations by the inaccuracies in the assumed velocity structure can be corrected without explicitly solving for a velocity model. Application to sets of multiple earthquakes in complex tectonic environments with strongly heterogeneous structure such as subduction zones and plate boundary region demonstrate that this relocation process significantly improves the hypocentre locations compared to standard locations. To meet the computational demands of this location process, a new open-source software package has been developed that allows for efficient relocation of large-scale multiple seismic events using arrival time data. Upon that, a flexible location framework is provided which can be tailored to various application cases on local, regional, and global scales. The latest version of the software distribution including source codes, a user guide, an example data set, and a change history, is freely available to the community. The developed relocation algorithm has been modified slightly and then its performance in a simulated near real-time processing has been evaluated. It has been demonstrated that applying the proposed technique significantly reduces the bias in routine locations and enhance the ability to locate the lower magnitude events using only regional arrival data. Finally, to return to emphasis on global seismic monitoring, an inversion framework has been developed to determine the seismic source time function through direct waveform fitting of teleseismic recordings. The inversion technique can be systematically applied to moderate- size seismic events and has the potential to be performed in near real-time applications. It is exemplified by application to an abnormal seismic event; the 2017 North Korean nuclear explosion. The presented work and application case studies in this dissertation represent the first step in an effort to establish a framework for automatic, routine generation of reliable catalogues of seismic event locations and source time functions.

Description: Seismologische Dienste spielen eine wichtige Rolle in der seismologischen Forschung und Gefährdungsanalyse, indem sie Quellparameter für seismische Ereignisse (Lokalisierung, Stärke, Mechanismus) bereitstellen und diese Daten langfristig verfügbar machen. Die Verfügbarkeit von Katalogen seismischer Quellparameter ist eine wichtige Voraussetzung für die Bewertung der seismischen Gefährdung und Minderung der Auswirkungen von Erdbeben. Die seismischen Kataloge sind für die Forschungsgemeinschaft besonders wertvoll, da sie grundlegende Hintergrundsdaten über lange Zeiträume liefern. Die vorliegende Arbeit ist motiviert durch die steigende Nachfrage nach der Entwicklung robusterer und effizienterer Methoden für die routinemäßige Schätzung von Quellparametern und schließlich die Verbesserung der Qualität und Quantität der seismischen Kataloge. Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es insbesondere Methoden zu entwickeln, um die Lokalisierung von Hypozentren und die zeitliche Entwicklung der Momentfreisetzung bei einem Erdbeben auf der Grundlage regionaler und teleseismischer Beobachtungen genauer zu bestimmen, und das Potenzial dieser Methoden für eine zeitnahe Verarbeitung zu untersuchen. Um dies zu erreichen, wurde eine Lokalisierungsmethode bereitgestellt, die mehrere Ereignisse gleichzeitig berücksichtigt und die relative Genauigkeit der Hypozentren zwischen benachbarten Ereignissen verbessert. Dieses Verfahren versucht, die Verzerrungen durch Geschwindigkeits-heterogenitäten zu reduzieren, oder äquivalent Einschränkungen und Ungenauigkeiten in dem angenommenen Geschwindigkeitsmodell auszugleichen, indem richtungsabhängige Zeitkorrekturen für jede seismische Station berechnet werden. Die systematischen Fehler, die durch die Ungenauigkeiten in der angenommenen Geschwindigkeitsstruktur in die Lokalisierung projiziert werden, können korrigiert werden, ohne explizit nach einem Geschwindigkeitsmodell zu lösen. Die Anwendung auf Ensemble von Erdbeben in tektonischen Situationen mit stark heterogener, komplexer Struktur wie Subduktionszonen und Plattengrenzregionen zeigt, dass diese Relokalisierung die Hypozentren im Vergleich zu Standardlokalisierungen signifikant verbessert. Um den rechnerischen Anforderungen der Lokalisierung gerecht zu werden, wurde ein neues Open-Source-Softwarepaket entwickelt, das eine effiziente Relokalisierung einer großen Anzahl von Erdbeben unter Verwendung von Ankunftszeitdaten ermöglicht. Daraufhin wird ein flexibler Lokalisierungsrahmen bereitgestellt, der an verschiedene Fälle auf lokaler, regionaler und globaler Ebene angepasst werden kann. Die neueste Version der Software einschließlich Quellcodes, Benutzerhandbuch, Beispieldatensatz und Änderungsverlauf ist für die Öffentlichkeit frei verfügbar. Der entwickelte Relokalisierungs-Algorithmus wurde geringfügig verändert und anschließend seine Leistung in einem simulierten Echtzeit Prozess bewertet. Es zeigte sich, dass die Anwendung der vorgeschlagenen Technik die Verzerrung der Hypozentren der Routineauswertung erheblich verringert und die Fähigkeit zum Lokalisieren der Ereignisse mit niedriger Magnitude unter Verwendung nur regionaler Ankunftsdaten verbessert. Um sich wieder auf die globale seismische Überwachung zu konzentrieren, wurde schließlich ein Inversionssystem entwickelt, um die Zeitfunktion der seismischen Quelle durch direkte Wellenformanpassung von teleseismischen Aufzeichnungen zu bestimmen. Die Inversionstechnik kann systematisch auf seismische Ereignisse mittlerer Größe angewendet werden und hat das Potenzial, in nahezu Echtzeitanwendungen ausgeführt zu werden. Dies wird beispielhaft durch die Anwendung auf ein abnormales seismisches Ereignis veranschaulicht: die nordkoreanische Atomexplosion 2017. Die in dieser Dissertation vorgestellten Arbeits- und Anwendungsfallstudien stellen den ersten Schritt dar, um einen Rahmen für die automatische, routinemäßige Erzeugung zuverlässiger Kataloge von seismischen Ereignisorten und Quellzeitfunktion zu schaffen.

Description: The climate is a complex dynamical system involving interactions and feedbacks among different processes at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Although numerous studies have attempted to understand the climate system, nonetheless, the studies investigating the multiscale characteristics of the climate are scarce. Further, the present set of techniques are limited in their ability to unravel the multi-scale variability of the climate system. It is completely plausible that extreme events and abrupt transitions, which are of great interest to climate community, are resultant of interactions among processes operating at multi-scale. For instance, storms, weather patterns, seasonal irregularities such as El Niño, floods and droughts, and decades-long climate variations can be better understood and even predicted by quantifying their multi-scale dynamics. This makes a strong argument to unravel the interaction and patterns of climatic processes at different scales. With this background, the thesis aims at developing measures to understand and quantify multi-scale interactions within the climate system. In the first part of the thesis, I proposed two new methods, viz, multi-scale event synchronization (MSES) and wavelet multi-scale correlation (WMC) to capture the scale-specific features present in the climatic processes. The proposed methods were tested on various synthetic and real-world time series in order to check their applicability and replicability. The results indicate that both methods (WMC and MSES) are able to capture scale-specific associations that exist between processes at different time scales in a more detailed manner as compared to the traditional single scale counterparts. In the second part of the thesis, the proposed multi-scale similarity measures were used in constructing climate networks to investigate the evolution of spatial connections within climatic processes at multiple timescales. The proposed methods WMC and MSES, together with complex network were applied to two different datasets. In the first application, climate networks based on WMC were constructed for the univariate global sea surface temperature (SST) data to identify and visualize the SSTs patterns that develop very similarly over time and distinguish them from those that have long-range teleconnections to other ocean regions. Further investigations of climate networks on different timescales revealed (i) various high variability and co-variability regions, and (ii) short and long-range teleconnection regions with varying spatial distance. The outcomes of the study not only re-confirmed the existing knowledge on the link between SST patterns like El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, but also suggested new insights into the characteristics and origins of long-range teleconnections. In the second application, I used the developed non-linear MSES similarity measure to quantify the multivariate teleconnections between extreme Indian precipitation and climatic patterns with the highest relevance for Indian sub-continent. The results confirmed significant non-linear influences that were not well captured by the traditional methods. Further, there was a substantial variation in the strength and nature of teleconnection across India, and across time scales. Overall, the results from investigations conducted in the thesis strongly highlight the need for considering the multi-scale aspects in climatic processes, and the proposed methods provide robust framework for quantifying the multi-scale characteristics.

Description: Das Klima ist ein komplexes Zusammenspiel verschiedener Mechanismen und Rückkopplungen auf mehreren zeitlichen und räumlichen Skalen. Viele Studien beschäftigten sich mit dem diesem System, nur wenige jedoch konzentrierten sich auf das Multiskalenverhalten des Klimas. Vor allem die bis dato verfügbaren Techniken schränkten eine vertiefte Analyse der Klimavariabilität auf unterschiedlichen Skalen ein. Von großen Interesse in der aktuellen Klimaforschung sind Extremereignisse und plötzliche Veränderungen, welche höchstwahrscheinlich aus dem Zusammenwirken von Prozessen auf unterschiedlichen Skalen hervorgehen. Um Stürme, wiederkehrende Wetterlagen, jahreszeitliche Phänomene wie El Niño, Fluten, Dürren oder Klimaschwankungen über Jahrzehnte besser zu verstehen oder sogar vorhersagen zu können, müssen wir deren Dynamik auf unterschiedlichen Skalen quantifizieren. In der vorliegenden Arbeit werden Mittel und Wege präsentiert um das Zusammenwirken auf verschiedenen Skalen im Klimasystem besser zu verstehen und zu quantifizieren. Im ersten Teil dieser Arbeit stelle ich zwei Methoden, multi-scale event synchronization (MSES) und wavelet multi-scale correlation (WMC) vor, welche skalenspezifischen Eigenschaften in klimatischen Prozessen abbilden. Die vorgestellte Methode wurde mit mehreren synthetischen und realen Zeitreihen getestet um ihre Anwendbarkeit und Reproduzierbarkeit zu überprüfen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass beide Methoden Beziehungen auf unterschiedlichen zeitlichen Skalen detaillierter als traditionelle Ansätze abbilden können. Im zweiten Teil dieser Arbeit bilde ich klimatische Netzwerke mithilfe eines Maßes zur Ähnlichkeit auf Multiskalen. Dabei untersuche ich die Entwicklung von räumlichen Beziehungen um klimatische Prozesse auf mehreren Zeitskalen zu verstehen. Die Methoden WMC und MSES werden zusammen mit komplexen Netzwerken auf zwei Datensätze angewendet. In der ersten Anwendung werden klimatische Netzwerke mit WMC für univariate globale Meeresoberflächentemperaturen gebildet. Auf unterschiedlichen Zeitskalen sollen dabei kurze und lange Fernwirkungen, welche andernfalls auf einer einzigen Zeitskale unerkannt blieben, entdeckt werden. In diesem Klimanetzwerk ließ sich eine starke Variabilität über die Zeit feststellen, was auf eine skalenfreie und kleinräumige Netzstruktur auf großem, beziehungsweise kleinem Maßstab schließen lässt. Weitere Untersuchungen von Klimanetzwerken auf unterschiedlichen Zeitskalen zeigte (i) hohe Variabilität und Co-Variabilität in Regionen, und (ii) Fernbeziehungen auf kurzen und langen Entfernungen mit variabler räumlicher Distanz. Die Ergebnisse bestätigen bekannte physikalischen Wechselwirkungen und daher auch die Stärken meines Ansatzes. Dadurch ergeben sich neue Einblicke in die Klimatologie von Ozeanen, sodass beispielsweise konvektive Prozesse in der Atmosphäre eine Abhängigkeit über weite Entfernungen aufweisen können. In der zweiten Anwendung verwendeten wir das von mir entwickelte, nicht-lineare MSES Ähnlichkeitsmaß um multivariate Fernbeziehungen zwischen Starkniederschlägen und klimatischen Mustern über Indien zu quantifizieren. Unsere Ergebnisse bestätigen signifikante, nicht-lineare Einflüsse, welche von traditionellen Methoden bisher unzureichend abgebildet wurden. Des Weiteren fanden wir deutliche Schwankungen in der Stärke und in der Ausprägung von Fernbeziehungen über Indien und über Zeitskalen. Zusammenfassend zeigen die Ergebnisse dieser Fallstudien, dass Multiskalen in Klimaprozessen entschieden berücksichtigt werden müssen und dass der entwickelte methodische Rahmen adäquat die charakteristischen Prozesse quantifizieren kann.

Description: This cumulative thesis is concerned with the evolution of geomagnetic activity since the beginning of the 20th century, that is, the time-dependent response of the geomagnetic field to solar forcing. The focus lies on the description of the magnetospheric response field at ground level, which is particularly sensitive to the ring current system, and an interpretation of its variability in terms of the solar wind driving. Thereby, this work contributes to a comprehensive understanding of long-term solar-terrestrial interactions. The common basis of the presented publications is formed by a reanalysis of vector magnetic field measurements from geomagnetic observatories located at low and middle geomagnetic latitudes. In the first two studies, new ring current targeting geomagnetic activity indices are derived, the Annual and Hourly Magnetospheric Currents indices (A/HMC). Compared to existing indices (e.g., the Dst index), they do not only extend the covered period by at least three solar cycles but also constitute a qualitative improvement concerning the absolute index level and the ~11-year solar cycle variability. The analysis of A/HMC shows that (a) the annual geomagnetic activity experiences an interval-dependent trend with an overall linear decline during 1900–2010 of ~5 % (b) the average trend-free activity level amounts to ~28 nT (c) the solar cycle related variability shows amplitudes of ~15–45 nT (d) the activity level for geomagnetically quiet conditions (Kp〈2) lies slightly below 20 nT. The plausibility of the last three points is ensured by comparison to independent estimations either based on magnetic field measurements from LEO satellite missions (since the 1990s) or the modeling of geomagnetic activity from solar wind input (since the 1960s). An independent validation of the longterm trend is problematic mainly because the sensitivity of the locally measured geomagnetic activity depends on geomagnetic latitude. Consequently, A/HMC is neither directly comparable to global geomagnetic activity indices (e.g., the aa index) nor to the partly reconstructed open solar magnetic flux, which requires a homogeneous response of the ground-based measurements to the interplanetary magnetic field and the solar wind speed. The last study combines a consistent, HMC-based identification of geomagnetic storms from 1930–2015 with an analysis of the corresponding spatial (magnetic local time-dependent) disturbance patterns. Amongst others, the disturbances at dawn and dusk, particularly their evolution during the storm recovery phases, are shown to be indicative of the solar wind driving structure (Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections vs. Stream or Co-rotating Interaction Regions), which enables a backward-prediction of the storm driver classes. The results indicate that ICME-driven geomagnetic storms have decreased since 1930 which is consistent with the concurrent decrease of HMC. Out of the collection of compiled follow-up studies the inclusion of measurements from high-latitude geomagnetic observatories into the third study’s framework seems most promising at this point.

Description: The Cheb Basin (CZ) is a shallow Neogene intracontinental basin located in the western Eger Rift. The Cheb Basin is characterized by active seismicity and diffuse degassing of mantle-derived CO2 in mofette fields. Within the Cheb Basin, the Hartoušov mofette field shows a daily CO2 flux of 23–97 tons. More than 99% of CO2 released over an area of 0.35 km2. Seismic active periods have been observed in 2000 and 2014 in the Hartoušov mofette field. Due to the active geodynamic processes, the Cheb Basin is considered to be an ideal region for the continental deep biosphere research focussing on the interaction of biological processes with geological processes. To study the influence of CO2 degassing on microbial community in the surface and subsurface environments, two 3-m shallow drillings and a 108.5-m deep scientific drilling were conducted in 2015 and 2016 respectively. Additionally, the fluid retrieved from the deep drilling borehole was also recovered. The different ecosystems were compared regarding their geochemical properties, microbial abundances, and microbial community structures. The geochemistry of the mofette is characterized by low pH, high TOC, and sulfate contents while the subsurface environment shows a neutral pH, and various TOC and sulfate contents in different lithological settings. Striking differences in the microbial community highlight the substantial impact of elevated CO2 concentrations and high saline groundwater on microbial processes. In general, the microorganisms had low abundance in the deep subsurface sediment compared with the shallow mofette. However, within the mofette and the deep subsurface sediment, the abundance of microbes does not show a typical decrease with depth, indicating that the uprising CO2-rich groundwater has a strong influence on the microbial communities via providing sufficient substrate for anaerobic chemolithoautotrophic microorganisms. Illumina MiSeq sequencing of the 16S rRNA genes and multivariate statistics reveals that the pH strongly influences the microbial community composition in the mofette, while the subsurface microbial community is significantly influenced by the groundwater which motivated by the degassing CO2. Acidophilic microorganisms show a much higher relative abundance in the mofette. Meanwhile, the OTUs assigned to family Comamonadaceae are the dominant taxa which characterize the subsurface communities. Additionally, taxa involved in sulfur cycling characterizing the microbial communities in both mofette and CO2 dominated subsurface environments. Another investigated important geo–bio interaction is the influence of the seismic activity. During seismic events, released H2 may serve as the electron donor for microbial hydrogenotrophic processes, such as methanogenesis. To determine whether the seismic events can potentially trigger methanogenesis by the elevated geogenic H2 concentration, we performed laboratory simulation experiments with sediments retrieved from the drillings. The simulation results indicate that after the addition of hydrogen, substantial amounts of methane were produced in incubated mofette sediments and deep subsurface sediments. The methanogenic hydrogenotrophic genera Methanobacterium was highly enriched during the incubation. The modeling of the in-situ observation of the earthquake swarm period in 2000 at the Novy Kostel focal area/Czech Republic and our laboratory simulation experiments reveals a close relation between seismic activities and microbial methane production via earthquake-induced H2 release. We thus conclude that H2 – which is released during seismic activity – can potentially trigger methanogenic activity in the deep subsurface. Based on this conclusion, we further hypothesize that the hydrogenotrophic early life on Earth was boosted by the Late Heavy Bombardment induced seismic activity in approximately 4.2 to 3.8 Ga.

Description: Das Eger-Becken (CZ) ist ein flaches, intrakontinentales neogenes Becken im westlichen Eger-Graben. Das Eger-Becken zeichnet sich durch aktive Seismizität und die diffuse Entgasung von aus dem Mantel stammenden CO2 in Mofettenfeldern aus. Das Mofettenfeld von Hartoušov weist einen täglichen CO2-Fluss von 23-97 Tonnen auf. Mehr als 99% des CO2 werden auf einer Fläche von 0,35 km2 freigesetzt. Im Untersuchungsgebiet wurden in den Jahren 2000 und 2014 seismisch aktive Perioden beobachtet. Aufgrund der aktiven geodynamischen Prozesse gilt das Egerer Becken als ideale Region für die kontinentale Tiefenbiosphärenforschung, die sich auf die Wechselwirkung von biologischen Prozessen mit geologischen Prozessen konzentriert. Zur Untersuchung des Einflusses der CO2-Entgasung auf die mikrobielle Gemeinschaft in der ober- und unterirdischen Umwelt wurden 2015 und 2016 zwei 3 m tiefe Flachbohrungen und eine 108,5 m tiefe wissenschaftliche Bohrung durchgeführt. Zusätzlich wurde auch aus dem Tiefbohrloch Flüssigkeit gewonnen. Die verschiedenen Ökosysteme wurden hinsichtlich ihrer geochemischen Eigenschaften, der mikrobiellen Abundanzen und der mikrobiellen Gemeinschaftsstrukturen verglichen. Die Geochemie der Mofetten zeichnet sich durch einen niedrigen pH-Wert und hohe TOC- und Sulfatgehalte aus, während das unterirdische Milieu einen neutralen pH-Wert und verschiedene TOC- und Sulfatgehalte in unterschiedlichen lithologischen Umgebungen aufweist. Auffällige Unterschiede in der mikrobiellen Gemeinschaft unterstreichen den erheblichen Einfluss erhöhter CO2-Konzentrationen und stark salzhaltigen Grundwassers auf mikrobielle Prozesse. Generell waren die mikrobiellen Abundanzen in dem tiefen Untergrundsediment im Vergleich zur flachen Mofette gering. Innerhalb der Mofette und des tiefen unterirdischen Sediments zeigt die Häufigkeit der Mikroorganismen jedoch keine typische Abnahme mit der Tiefe, was darauf hinweist, dass das aufsteigende CO2-reiche Grundwasser einen starken Einfluss auf die mikrobiellen Gemeinschaften hat, indem es genügend Substrat für anaerobe chemolithoautotrophe Mikroorganismen bietet. Die Illumina-MiSeq-Sequenzierung der 16S rRNA-Gene und die multivariate Statistik zeigen, dass der pH-Wert die Zusammensetzung der mikrobiellen Gemeinschaft in der Mofette signifikant bestimmt, während die unterirdische mikrobielle Gemeinschaft signifikant vom Grundwasser beeinflusst wird, das durch das ausgasende CO2 geprägt ist. Azidophile Mikroorganismen zeigen eine viel höhere relative Abundanz in der Mofette, wohingegen die der Familie Comamonadaceae zugeordneten OTUs die dominierenden Taxa der unterirdischen Gemeinschaften darstellen. Zusätzlich charakterisieren Taxa, die am Schwefelzyklus beteiligt sind, die mikrobiellen Gemeinschaften sowohl in der Mofette als auch in der CO2-dominierten unterirdischen Umwelt. Eine weitere wichtige Untersuchung der Geo-Bio-Interaktion ist der Einfluss der seismischen Aktivität. Während seismischer Ereignisse kann freigesetztes H2 als Elektronendonator für mikrobielle hydrogenotrophe Prozesse, wie z.B. die Methanogenese, dienen. Um zu bestimmen, ob die seismischen Ereignisse durch die erhöhten geogenen H2-Konzentrationen möglicherweise methanogene Prozesse auslösen können, führten wir Laborsimulationsexperimente mit Sedimenten durch, die aus den Bohrungen gewonnen wurden. Die Simulationsexperimente weisen darauf hin, dass nach der Zugabe von Wasserstoff beträchtliche Mengen an Methan in inkubierten Mofettensedimenten und tiefen unterirdischen Sedimenten produziert wurden. Die methanogene hydrogenotrophe Gattung Methanobacterium wurde während der Inkubation stark angereichert. Die Modellierung der in-situ-Beobachtung der Erdbeben-Schwarmzeit im Jahr 2000 im Schwerpunktgebiet Novy Kostel/Tschechische Republik und unsere Laborsimulationsexperimente zeigen einen engen Zusammenhang zwischen seismischen Aktivitäten und der biotischen Methanproduktion durch erdbebeninduzierte H2-Freisetzung. Wir kommen daher zu dem Schluss, dass H2 - dass bei seismischer Aktivität freigesetzt wird - möglicherweise methanogene Aktivität im tiefen Untergrund auslösen kann. Basierend auf dieser Schlussfolgerung gehen wir weiter davon aus, dass das frühe hydrogenotrophe Leben, durch die durch Late Heavy Bombardment induzierte seismische Aktivität in etwa 4,2 bis 3,8 Ga verstärkt wurde.

Description: Rivers have always flooded their floodplains. Over 2.5 billion people worldwide have been affected by flooding in recent decades. The economic damage is also considerable, averaging 100 billion US dollars per year. There is no doubt that damage and other negative effects of floods can be avoided. However, this has a price: financially and politically. Costs and benefits can be estimated through risk assessments. Questions about the location and frequency of floods, about the objects that could be affected and their vulnerability are of importance for flood risk managers, insurance companies and politicians. Thus, both variables and factors from the fields of hydrology and sociol-economics play a role with multi-layered connections. One example are dikes along a river, which on the one hand contain floods, but on the other hand, by narrowing the natural floodplains, accelerate the flood discharge and increase the danger of flooding for the residents downstream. Such larger connections must be included in the assessment of flood risk.

Description: Flüsse haben seit jeher ihre Auen überflutet. In den vergangenen Jahrzehnten waren weltweit über 2,5 Milliarden Menschen durch Hochwasser betroffen. Auch der ökonomische Schaden ist mit durchschnittlich 100 Milliarden US Dollar pro Jahr erheblich. Zweifelsohne können Schäden und andere negative Auswirkungen von Hochwasser vermieden werden. Allerdings hat dies einen Preis: finanziell und politisch. Kosten und Nutzen lassen sich durch Risikobewertungen abschätzen. Dabei werden in der Wasserwirtschaft, von Versicherungen und der Politik Fragen nach dem Ort und der Häufigkeit von Überflutungen, nach den Dingen, die betroffen sein könnten und deren Anfälligkeit untersucht. Somit spielen sowohl Größen und Faktoren aus den Bereichen der Hydrologie und Sozioökonmie mit vielschichtigen Zusammenhängen eine Rolle. Ein anschauliches Beispiel sind Deiche entlang eines Flusses, die einerseits in ihrem Abschnitt Überflutungen eindämmen, andererseits aber durch die Einengung der natürlichen Vorländer den Hochwasserabfluss beschleunigen und die Gefährdung für die Anlieger flussab verschärfen. Solche größeren Zusammenhänge müssen in der Bewertung des Hochwasserrisikos einbezogen werden. In derzeit gängigen Verfahren geht dies mit vereinfachenden Annahmen einher. Risikoabschätzungen sind daher unscharf und mit Unsicherheiten verbunden. Diese Arbeit untersucht den Nutzen und die Möglichkeiten neuer Datensätze für eine Verbesserung der Hochwasserrisikoabschätzung. Es werden neue Methoden und Modelle entwickelt, die die angesprochenen Zusammenhänge stärker berücksichtigen und auch die bestehenden Unsicherheiten der Modellergebnisse beziffern und somit die Verlässlichkeit der getroffenen Aussagen einordnen lassen. Dafür werden Daten zu Hochwasserereignissen aus verschiedenen Quellen erfasst und ausgewertet. Dazu zählen neben Niederschlags-und Durchflussaufzeichnungen an Messstationen beispielsweise auch Bilder aus sozialen Medien, die mit Ortsangaben und Bildinhalten helfen können, die Überflutungsflächen abzugrenzen und Hochwasserschäden zu schätzen. Verfahren des Maschinellen Lernens wurden erfolgreich eingesetzt, um aus vielfältigen Daten, Zusammenhänge zwischen Hochwasser und Auswirkungen zu erkennen, besser zu verstehen und verbesserte Modelle zu entwickeln. Solche Risikomodelle helfen bei der Entwicklung und Bewertung von Strategien zur Minderung des Hochwasserrisikos. Diese Werkzeuge ermöglichen darüber hinaus Einblicke in das Zusammenspiel verschiedener Faktoren sowie Aussagen zu den zu erwartenden Folgen auch von Hochwassern, die das bisher bekannte Ausmaß übersteigen. Diese Arbeit verzeichnet Fortschritte in Bezug auf eine verbesserte Bewertung von Hochwasserrisiken durch die Nutzung vielfältiger Daten aus unterschiedlichen Quellen mit innovativen Verfahren sowie der Weiterentwicklung von Modellen. Das Hochwasserrisiko unterliegt durch wirtschaftliche Entwicklungen und klimatische Veränderungen einem steten Wandel. Um das Wissen über Risiken aktuell zu halten sind robuste, leistungs- und anpassungsfähige Verfahren wie sie in dieser Arbeit vorgestellt werden von zunehmender Bedeutung.

Description: Flooding is a vast problem in many parts of the world, including Europe. It occurs mainly due to extreme weather conditions (e.g. heavy rainfall and snowmelt) and the consequences of flood events can be devastating. Flood risk is mainly defined as a combination of the probability of an event and its potential adverse impacts. Therefore, it covers three major dynamic components: hazard (physical characteristics of a flood event), exposure (people and their physical environment that being exposed to flood), and vulnerability (the elements at risk). Floods are natural phenomena and cannot be fully prevented. However, their risk can be managed and mitigated. For a sound flood risk management and mitigation, a proper risk assessment is needed. First of all, this is attained by a clear understanding of the flood risk dynamics. For instance, human activity may contribute to an increase in flood risk. Anthropogenic climate change causes higher intensity of rainfall and sea level rise and therefore an increase in scale and frequency of the flood events. On the other hand, inappropriate management of risk and structural protection measures may not be very effective for risk reduction. Additionally, due to the growth of number of assets and people within the flood-prone areas, risk increases. To address these issues, the first objective of this thesis is to perform a sensitivity analysis to understand the impacts of changes in each flood risk component on overall risk and further their mutual interactions. A multitude of changes along the risk chain are simulated by regional flood model (RFM) where all processes from atmosphere through catchment and river system to damage mechanisms are taken into consideration. The impacts of changes in risk components are explored by plausible change scenarios for the mesoscale Mulde catchment (sub-basin of the Elbe) in Germany. A proper risk assessment is ensured by the reasonable representation of the real-world flood event. Traditionally, flood risk is assessed by assuming homogeneous return periods of flood peaks throughout the considered catchment. However, in reality, flood events are spatially heterogeneous and therefore traditional assumption misestimates flood risk especially for large regions. In this thesis, two different studies investigate the importance of spatial dependence in large scale flood risk assessment for different spatial scales. In the first one, the “real” spatial dependence of return period of flood damages is represented by continuous risk modelling approach where spatially coherent patterns of hydrological and meteorological controls (i.e. soil moisture and weather patterns) are included. Further the risk estimations under this modelled dependence assumption are compared with two other assumptions on the spatial dependence of return periods of flood damages: complete dependence (homogeneous return periods) and independence (randomly generated heterogeneous return periods) for the Elbe catchment in Germany. The second study represents the “real” spatial dependence by multivariate dependence models. Similar to the first study, the three different assumptions on the spatial dependence of return periods of flood damages are compared, but at national (United Kingdom and Germany) and continental (Europe) scales. Furthermore, the impacts of the different models, tail dependence, and the structural flood protection level on the flood risk under different spatial dependence assumptions are investigated. The outcomes of the sensitivity analysis framework suggest that flood risk can vary dramatically as a result of possible change scenarios. The risk components that have not received much attention (e.g. changes in dike systems and in vulnerability) may mask the influence of climate change that is often investigated component. The results of the spatial dependence research in this thesis further show that the damage under the false assumption of complete dependence is 100 % larger than the damage under the modelled dependence assumption, for the events with return periods greater than approximately 200 years in the Elbe catchment. The complete dependence assumption overestimates the 200-year flood damage, a benchmark indicator for the insurance industry, by 139 %, 188 % and 246 % for the UK, Germany and Europe, respectively. The misestimation of risk under different assumptions can vary from upstream to downstream of the catchment. Besides, tail dependence in the model and flood protection level in the catchments can affect the risk estimation and the differences between different spatial dependence assumptions. In conclusion, the broader consideration of the risk components, which possibly affect the flood risk in a comprehensive way, and the consideration of the spatial dependence of flood return periods are strongly recommended for a better understanding of flood risk and consequently for a sound flood risk management and mitigation.

Description: Hochwasser sind ein großes Problem und treten hauptsächlich aufgrund extremer Wetterbedingungen (z. B. starker Regen und Schneeschmelze) auf. Die Folgen von Hochwasserereignissen können verheerend sein. Das Konzept des Hochwasserrisikos beinhaltet die drei Komponenten: Gefahr, Exposition und Vulnerabilität. Hochwasser sind natürliche Phänomene und können nicht sicher verhindert werden. Das Risiko kann jedoch gesteuert und gemindert werden. Für ein solides Hochwasserrisikomanagement und die Minderung des Risikos ist eine ordnungsgemäße Risikobewertung und ein klares Verständnis der Hochwasserrisikodynamik erforderlich. Beispielsweise verursacht der anthropogene Klimawandel eine höhere Intensität der Niederschläge und einen Anstieg des Meeresspiegels und damit eine Zunahme des Ausmaßes und der Häufigkeit von Hochwasserereignissen. Andererseits können unangemessene strukturelle Schutzmaßnahmen, das Anwachsen von Vermögenswerten und eine steigende Anzahl betroffener Personen in den hochwassergefährdeten Gebieten das Risiko erhöhen. Um diese Probleme zu adressieren, besteht ein Ziel dieser Arbeit aus der Durchführung einer Sensitivitätsanalyse, um die Auswirkungen von Änderungen in jeder Hochwasserrisikokomponente auf das Gesamtrisiko und deren Wechselwirkungen untereinander zu verstehen. Eine angemessene Risikobewertung wird auch durch die korrekte k Darstellung des realen Hochwasserereignisses erreicht. Traditionell wird das Hochwasserrisiko bewertet, indem homogene Wiederkehrintervalle von Hochwasserspitzen im gesamten Einzugsgebiet angenommen werden. In der Realität sind Hochwasserereignisse jedoch räumlich heterogen, weshalb die traditionelle Annahme von Homogenität das Hochwasserrisiko insbesondere für große Einzugsgebiete falsch einschätzt. In dieser Arbeit wird die Bedeutung der räumlichen Abhängigkeit bei der Bewertung des Hochwasserrisikos in großem Maßstab in zwei Studien für verschiedene räumliche Skalen untersucht. In der ersten Untersuchung wird die „reale“ räumliche Abhängigkeit durch einen kontinuierlichen Risikomodellierungsansatz dargestellt. Zusätzlich werden die Risikoabschätzungen unter dieser modellierten Abhängigkeitsannahme mit zwei weiteren Annahmen zur räumlichen Abhängigkeit der Wiederkehrintervalle von Hochwasser verglichen: vollständige Abhängigkeit und Unabhängigkeit für das Elbeeinzugsgebiet in Deutschland. Die zweite Studie repräsentiert die „reale“ räumliche Abhängigkeit durch ein copula-basiertes Abhängigkeitsmodell. In ähnlicher Weise werden die drei verschiedenen Annahmen zur räumlichen Abhängigkeit der Wiederkehrintervalle von Hochwasser auf nationaler und kontinentaler Ebene verglichen. Außerdem wird der Einfluss von „Tail-dependences“ im Modell sowie von Hochwasserschutzmaßnahmen auf die räumliche Abhängigkeit untersucht. Die Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit unter Anwendung des Sensitivitätsanalyse-Frameworks zeigen, dass das Hochwasserrisiko aufgrund möglicher Änderungsszenarien dramatisch variieren kann. Der Einfluss des Klimawandels kann durch Änderungen anderer Risikokomponenten (z. B. Änderungen der Deichsysteme und der Vulnerabilität) überdeckt werden. Die Untersuchung zur räumlichen Abhängigkeit zeigen, dass der Schaden unter der Annahme vollständiger Abhängigkeit für Ereignisse mit Wiederkehrintervalle von mehr als ungefähr 200 Jahren im Elbeeinzugsgebiet 100 % größer als der Schaden unter modellierter Abhängigkeit. Die Annahme vollständiger Abhängigkeit überschätzt den 200-jährigen Hochwasserschaden, einen Referenzindikator für die Versicherungsbranche, um 139 %, 188 % und 246 % für Vereinigte Königreich, Deutschland und Europa. Die Fehleinschätzung des Hochwasserrisikos kann unter verschiedenen Annahmen von Abhängigkeit zwischen Oberlauf und Unterlauf eines Einzugsgebietes stark variieren. Zudem können „Tail-dependences“ im Modell sowie der Hochwasserschutz im Einzugsgebiet die Ergebnisse der Risikoabschätzung, unter verschiedenen Annahmen der räumlichen Abhängigkeit, beeinflussen. Abschließend wird eine umfangreiche Berücksichtigung der Risikokomponenten und insbesondere der räumlichen Abhängigkeit von Wiederkehrintervallen stark empfohlen, um das Hochwasserrisiko und damit dessen Management und Minderung besser verstehen zu können.

Description: In March 2010, the project CoCoCo (incipient COntinent-COntinent COllision) recorded a 650 km long amphibian N-S wide-angle seismic profile, extending from the Eratosthenes Seamount (ESM) across Cyprus and southern Turkey to the Anatolian plateau. The aim of the project is to reveal the impact of the transition from subduction to continent-continent collision of the African plate with the Cyprus-Anatolian plate. A visual quality check, frequency analysis and filtering were applied to the seismic data and reveal a good data quality. Subsequent first break picking, finite-differences ray tracing and inversion of the offshore wide-angle data leads to a first-arrival tomographic model. This model reveals (1) P-wave velocities lower than 6.5 km/s in the crust, (2) a variable crustal thickness of about 28 - 37 km and (3) an upper crustal reflection at 5 km depth beneath the ESM. Two land shots on Turkey, also recorded on Cyprus, airgun shots south of Cyprus and geological and previous seismic investigations provide the information to derive a layered velocity model beneath the Anatolian plateau and for the ophiolite complex on Cyprus. The analysis of the reflections provides evidence for a north-dipping plate subducting beneath Cyprus. The main features of this layered velocity model are (1) an upper and lower crust with large lateral changes of the velocity structure and thickness, (2) a Moho depth of about 38 - 45 km beneath the Anatolian plateau, (3) a shallow north-dipping subducting plate below Cyprus with an increasing dip and (4) a typical ophiolite sequence on Cyprus with a total thickness of about 12 km. The offshore-onshore seismic data complete and improve the information about the velocity structure beneath Cyprus and the deeper part of the offshore tomographic model. Thus, the wide-angle seismic data provide detailed insights into the 2-D geometry and velocity structures of the uplifted and overriding Cyprus-Anatolian plate. Subsequent gravity modelling confirms and extends the crustal P-wave velocity model. The deeper part of the subducting plate is constrained by the gravity data and has a dip angle of ~ 28°. Finally, an integrated analysis of the geophysical and geological information allows a comprehensive interpretation of the crustal structure related to the collision process.

Description: The objective of this study is the development and application of a full flood risk chain, appropriate for the large scale and based on long term and continuous simulation. The novel approach of ‘derived flood risk based on continuous simulations’ is introduced, where the synthetic discharge time series is used as input into flood impact models and flood risk is directly derived from the resulting synthetic damage time series.

Description: This dissertation was carried out as part of the international and interdisciplinary graduate school StRATEGy. This group has set itself the goal of investigating geological processes that take place on different temporal and spatial scales and have shaped the southern central Andes. This study focuses on claystones and carbonates of the Yacoraite Fm. that were deposited between Maastricht and Dan in the Cretaceous Salta Rift Basin. The former rift basin is located in northwest Argentina and is divided into the sub-basins Tres Cruces, Metán-Alemanía and Lomas de Olmedo. The overall motivation for this study was to gain new knowledge about the evolution of marine and lacustrine conditions during the Yacoraite Fm. Deposit in the Tres Cruces and Metán-Alemanía sub-basins. Other important aspects that were examined within the scope of this dissertation are the conversion of organic matter from Yacoraite Fm. into oil and its genetic relationship to selected oils produced and natural oil spills. The results of my study show that the Yacoraite Fm. began to be deposited under marine conditions and that a lacustrine environment developed by the end of the deposition in the Tres Cruces and Metán-Alemanía Basins. In general, the kerogen of Yacoraite Fm. consists mainly of the kerogen types II, III and II / III mixtures. Kerogen type III is mainly found in samples from the Yacoraite Fm., whose TOC values are low. Due to the adsorption of hydrocarbons on the mineral surfaces (mineral matrix effect), the content of type III kerogen with Rock-Eval pyrolysis in these samples could be overestimated. Investigations using organic petrography show that the organic particles of Yacoraite Fm. mainly consist of alginites and some vitrinite-like particles. The pyrolysis GC of the rock samples showed that the Yacoraite Fm. generates low-sulfur oils with a predominantly low-wax, paraffinic-naphthenic-aromatic composition and paraffinic wax-rich oils. Small proportions of paraffinic, low-wax oils and a gas condensate-generating facies are also predicted. Here, too, mineral matrix effects were taken into account, which can lead to a quantitative overestimation of the gas-forming character. The results of an additional 1D tank modeling carried out show that the beginning (10% TR) of the oil genesis took place between ≈10 Ma and ≈4 Ma. Most of the oil (from ≈50% to 65%) was generated prior to the development of structural traps formed during the Plio-Pleistocene Diaguita deformation phase. Only ≈10% of the total oil generated was formed and potentially trapped after the formation of structural traps. Important factors in the risk assessment of this petroleum system, which can determine the small amounts of generated and migrated oil, are the generally low TOC contents and the variable thickness of the Yacoraite Fm. Additional risks are associated with a low density of information about potentially existing reservoir structures and the quality of the overburden.

Description: Diese Dissertation wurde im Rahmen des internationalen und interdisziplinären Graduiertenkollegs StRATEGy durchgeführt. Diese Gruppe hat sich zum Ziel gesetzt, geologische Prozesse zu untersuchen, die auf unterschiedlichen zeitlichen und räumlichen Skalen ablaufen und die südlichen Zentralanden geprägt haben. Diese Studie konzentriert sich auf die Tonsteine und Karbonate der Yacoraite Fm., die zwischen Maastricht und Dan im kreidezeitlichen Salta-Grabenbecken abgelagert wurden. Das ehemalige Riftbecken liegt im Nordwesten Argentiniens und gliedert sich in die Teilbecken Tres Cruces, Metán-Alemanía und Lomas de Olmedo. Die übergreifende Motivation für diese Studie war es, neue Erkenntnisse über die Entwicklung der marinen und lakustrinen Bedingungen während der Ablagerung der Yacoraite Fm. in den Tres Cruces und Metán-Alemanía Sub-Becken zu gewinnen. Weitere wichtige Aspekte, die im Rahmen dieser Dissertation untersucht wurden, sind die Umwandlung von organischer Materie der Yacoraite Fm. in Öl sowie deren genetische Beziehung zu ausgewählten produzierten Ölen und natürlichen Ölaustritten. Die Ergebnisse meiner Studie zeigen, dass die Ablagerung der Yacoraite Fm. unter marinen Bedingungen begann und sich bis zum Ende der Ablagerung in den Tres Cruces- und Metán-Alemanía-Becken ein lakustrines Milieu entwickelte. Im Allgemeinen besteht das Kerogen der Yacoraite Fm. überwiegend aus den Kerogentypen II, III und II/III-Mischungen. Der Kerogentyp III findet sich vor allem in Proben aus der Yacoraite Fm., deren TOC-Werte niedrig sind. Aufgrund der Adsorption von Kohlenwasserstoffen an den Mineraloberflächen (Mineralmatrixeffekt) könnte der Gehalt an Typ-III-Kerogen mit der Rock-Eval-Pyrolyse in diesen Proben überschätzt werden. Untersuchungen mittels organischer Petrographie zeigen, dass die organischen Partikel der Yacoraite Fm. hauptsächlich aus Alginiten und einigen Vitrinit-artigen Partikeln bestehen. Die Pyrolyse-GC der Gesteinsproben zeigte, dass die Yacoraite Fm. schwefelarme Öle mit einer überwiegend Wachs-armen paraffinisch-naphthenisch-aromatischen Zusammensetzung und paraffinische Wachs-reiche Öle generiert. Geringe Anteile paraffinischer, Wachs-armer Öle und einer Gaskondensat-generierenden Fazies werden ebenfalls vorausgesagt. Auch hier wurden Mineralmatrixeffekte berücksichtigt, die zu einer quantitativen Überschätzung des gasbildenden Charakters führen können. Die Ergebnisse einer zusätzlich durchgeführten 1D-Beckenmodellierung zeigen, dass der Beginn (10 %TR) der Ölgenese zwischen ≈10 Ma und ≈4 Ma stattfand. Der größte Teil des Öls (von ≈50 % bis 65 %) wurde vor der Entwicklung struktureller Fallen gebildet, die während der plio-pleistozänen Diaguita Deformatiosphase gebildet wurden. Nur ≈10 % des insgesamt generierten Öls wurde nach der Entstehung struktureller Fallen gebildet und potentiell darin gefangen. Wichtige Faktoren in der Risikobewertung dieses Erdölsystems, welche die geringen Mengen an generiertem und migriertem Öl bestimmen können, stellen die allgemein niedrigen TOC-Gehalte und die variable Mächtigkeit der Yacoraite Fm. dar. Weitere Risiken sind mit einer niedrigen Informationsdichte über potentiell vorhandene Reservoirstrukturen und die Qualität der Deckgesteine verbunden.

Description: Rheology describes the flow of matter under the influence of stress, and - related to solids- it investigates how solids subjected to stresses deform. As the deformation of the Earth’s outer layers, the lithosphere and the crust, is a major focus of rheological studies, rheology in the geosciences describes how strain evolves in rocks of variable composition and temperature under tectonic stresses. It is here where deformation processes shape the form of ocean basins and mountain belts that ultimately result from the complex interplay between lithospheric plate motion and the susceptibility of rocks to the influence of plate-tectonic forces. A rigorous study of the strength of the lithosphere and deformation phenomena thus requires in-depth studies of the rheological characteristics of the involved materials and the temporal framework of deformation processes. This dissertation aims at analyzing the influence of the physical configuration of the lithosphere on the present-day thermal field and the overall rheological characteristics of the lithosphere to better understand variable expressions in the formation of passive continental margins and the behavior of strike-slip fault zones. The main methodological approach chosen is to estimate the present-day thermal field and the strength of the lithosphere by 3-D numerical modeling. The distribution of rock properties is provided by 3-D structural models, which are used as the basis for the thermal and rheological modeling. The structural models are based on geophysical and geological data integration, additionally constrained by 3-D density modeling. More specifically, to decipher the thermal and rheological characteristics of the lithosphere in both oceanic and continental domains, sedimentary basins in the Sea of Marmara (continental transform setting), the SW African passive margin (old oceanic crust), and the Norwegian passive margin (young oceanic crust) were selected for this study. The Sea of Marmara, in northwestern Turkey, is located where the dextral North Anatolian Fault zone (NAFZ) accommodates the westward escape of the Anatolian Plate toward the Aegean. Geophysical observations indicate that the crust is heterogeneous beneath the Marmara basin, but a detailed characterization of the lateral crustal heterogeneities is presented for the first time in this study. Here, I use different gravity datasets and the general non-uniqueness in potential field modeling, to propose three possible end-member scenarios of crustal configuration. The models suggest that pronounced gravitational anomalies in the basin originate from significant density heterogeneities within the crust. The rheological modeling reveals that associated variations in lithospheric strength control the mechanical segmentation of the NAFZ. Importantly, a strong crust that is mechanically coupled to the upper mantle spatially correlates with aseismic patches where the fault bends and changes its strike in response to the presence of high-density lower crustal bodies. Between the bends, mechanically weaker crustal domains that are decoupled from the mantle are characterized by creep. For the passive margins of SW Africa and Norway, two previously published 3-D conductive and lithospheric-scale thermal models were analyzed. These 3-D models differentiate various sedimentary, crustal, and mantle units and integrate different geophysical data, such as seismic observations and the gravity field. Here, the rheological modeling suggests that the present-day lithospheric strength across the oceanic domain is ultimately affected by the age and past thermal and tectonic processes as well as the depth of the thermal lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary, while the configuration of the crystalline crust dominantly controls the rheological behavior of the lithosphere beneath the continental domains of both passive margins. The thermal and rheological models show that the variations of lithospheric strength are fundamentally influenced by the temperature distribution within the lithosphere. Moreover, as the composition of the lithosphere significantly influences the present-day thermal field, it therefore also affects the rheological characteristics of the lithosphere. Overall my studies add to our understanding of regional tectonic deformation processes and the long-term behavior of sedimentary basins; they confirm other analyses that have pointed out that crustal heterogeneities in the continents result in diverse lithospheric thermal characteristics, which in turn results in higher complexity and variations of rheological behavior compared to oceanic domains with a thinner, more homogeneous crust.

Description: Die Rheologie ist die Wissenschaft, die sich mit dem Fließ- und Verformungsverhalten von Materie beschäftigt. Hierzu gehören neben Gasen und Flüssigkeiten vor allem auch Feststoffe, die einer Spannung ausgesetzt sind und einem daraus resultierenden Verformungsprozess unterliegen - entweder unter bruchhaften oder plastischen Bedingungen. In den Geowissenschaften umfasst die Rheologie die kombinierte Analyse tektonischer Spannungen und resultierender Deformationsphänomene in Gesteinen unter unterschiedlichen Temperatur- und Druckbedingungen sowie im Zusammenhang mit physikalischen Eigenschaften der Krusten- und Mantelgesteine. Die Verformung des lithosphärischen Mantels und der Kruste ist ein Schwerpunkt rheologischer Untersuchungen, denn in diesem Zusammenhang bilden sich Ozeanbecken und Gebirgsgürtel, die letztendlich aus dem komplexen Zusammenspiel der Bewegungen lithosphärischer Platten und der unterschiedlichen Deformierbarkeit von Krusten- und Mantelgesteinen unter dem Einfluss plattentektonischer Kräfte resultieren. Eine genaue Untersuchung der Festigkeit der Lithosphäre und der Deformationssphänomene erfordert daher eingehende Studien der rheologischen Eigenschaften der beteiligten Materialien. Vor diesem Hintergrund ist es das Ziel dieser Dissertation, die allgemeinen rheologischen Charakteristika der Lithosphäre in drei verschiedenen geodynamischen Bereichen zu analysieren, um unterschiedlich geprägte passive Kontinentalränder sowie das Verhalten von Transformstörungen innerhalb der Kontinente besser zu verstehen. Der wichtigste methodische Ansatz, der hierfür gewählt wurde, ist die numerische 3D-Modellierung, um eine Abschätzung des gegenwärtigen thermischen Feldes und der Festigkeit der Lithosphäre zu ermöglichen. Die räumliche Verteilung der Gesteinseigenschaften in Kruste und Mantel wird dabei durch 3-D-Strukturmodelle bereitgestellt, die als Grundlage für die thermische und rheologische Modellierung verwendet werden. Die Strukturmodelle basieren auf der Integration geophysikalischer und geologischer Daten, die zusätzlich durch eine 3D-Dichtemodellierung validiert werden. Um die thermischen und rheologischen Eigenschaften der Lithosphäre sowohl im ozeanischen als auch im kontinentalen Bereich zu entschlüsseln, wurden für diese Studie Sedimentbecken im Marmarameer im Bereich der kontinentalen Nordanatolischen Transformstörung sowie im Bereich der passiven Plattenränder von SW-Afrika (alte ozeanische Kruste) und vor Norwegen (junge ozeanische Kruste) ausgewählt. Das Marmarameer im Nordwesten der Türkei befindet sich in einer Region, wo die dextrale Nordanatolische Störung (NAFZ) die westwärts gerichtete Ausweichbewegung der Anatolischen Platte in Richtung Ägäis ermöglicht. Geophysikalische Beobachtungen deuten darauf hin, dass die kontinentale Kruste unter dem Marmara-Becken heterogen ist, allerdings stellt diese Arbeit zum ersten Mal eine detaillierte Charakterisierung dieser lateralen Krustenheterogenitäten vor. Hierzu verwende ich verschiedene Schweredaten und die Potenzialfeldmodellierung, um drei mögliche Szenarien zur Erklärung der Unterschiede im Charakter der Kruste vorzuschlagen. Die Modelle legen nahe, dass ausgeprägte Schwereanomalien im Becken von signifikanten Dichte-Heterogenitäten innerhalb der Kruste hervorgerufen werden. Die rheologische Modellierung zeigt, dass damit verbundene Unterschiede in der Festigkeit der Lithosphäre die mechanische Segmentierung der NAFZ steuern und sich auf seismogene Prozesse auswirken. Demnach korrelieren Krustenbereiche hoher Festigkeit, die mechanisch an den oberen Mantel gekoppelt sind, räumlich mit aseismischen Sektoren in der Region um die Störungszone, in denen sich das Streichen der NAFZ ändert. Zwischen den Bereichen mit den veränderten Streichrichtungen der Störung existieren dagegen mechanisch schwächere Krustenbereiche, die vom Mantel entkoppelt und durch Kriechbewegungen gekennzeichnet sind. Für die passiven Kontinentalränder von SW-Afrika und Norwegen wurden zwei veröffentlichte thermische 3-D-Modelle hinsichtlich des Einflusses der Temperaturverteilung auf die Festigkeit der Lithosphäre analysiert. Diese 3-D-Modelle differenzieren verschiedene Sediment-, Krusten- und Mantelbereiche und integrieren unterschiedliche geophysikalische Daten, wie zum Beispiel seismische Beobachtungen und Schwerefeldmessungen. Hier legt die rheologische Modellierung nahe, dass die derzeitige Lithosphärenfestigkeit im ozeanischen Bereich letztlich durch das Alter und vergangene thermische und tektonische Prozesse sowie die Tiefe der thermischen Grenze zwischen Lithosphäre und Asthenosphäre beeinflusst wird, während die Konfiguration der kristallinen Kruste das rheologische Verhalten der Lithosphäre in den kontinentalen Bereichen der beiden passiven Ränder dominiert. Die thermischen und rheologischen Modelle zeigen, dass die Variationen in der Festigkeit der Lithosphäre grundlegend von der Temperaturverteilung innerhalb der Lithosphäre selbst beeinflusst werden. Dabei steuert die Zusammensetzung der Lithosphäre das heutige thermische Feld entscheidend mit und darüber auch die rheologischen Eigenschaften der Lithosphäre. Diese Ergebnisse tragen somit zu einem besseren Verständnis regionaler tektonischer Deformationsprozesse und der dynamischen Langzeitentwicklung von Sedimentbecken bei; sie bestätigen außerdem frühere Analysen, die bereits darauf hingewiesen haben, dass die Heterogenität der Kruste in den Kontinenten mit unterschiedlichen thermischen Eigenschaften der Lithosphäre einhergeht, welches wiederum zu einer höheren Komplexität und Variabilität des rheologischen Verhaltens im Vergleich zu ozeanischen Gebieten mit einer geringer mächtigen, homogeneren Kruste führt.

Description: Geochemical processes such as mineral dissolution and precipitation alter the microstructure of rocks, and thereby affect their hydraulic and mechanical behaviour. Quantifying these property changes and considering them in reservoir simulations is essential for a sustainable utilisation of the geological subsurface. Due to the lack of alternatives, analytical methods and empirical relations are currently applied to estimate evolving hydraulic and mechanical rock properties associated with chemical reactions. However, the predictive capabilities of analytical approaches remain limited, since they assume idealised microstructures, and thus are not able to reflect property evolution for dynamic processes. Hence, aim of the present thesis is to improve the prediction of permeability and stiffness changes resulting from pore space alterations of reservoir sandstones. A detailed representation of rock microstructure, including the morphology and connectivity of pores, is essential to accurately determine physical rock properties. For that purpose, three-dimensional pore-scale models of typical reservoir sandstones, obtained from highly resolved micro-computed tomography (micro-CT), are used to numerically calculate permeability and stiffness. In order to adequately depict characteristic distributions of secondary minerals, the virtual samples are systematically altered and resulting trends among the geometric, hydraulic, and mechanical rock properties are quantified. It is demonstrated that the geochemical reaction regime controls the location of mineral precipitation within the pore space, and thereby crucially affects the permeability evolution. This emphasises the requirement of determining distinctive porosity-permeability relationships by means of digital pore-scale models. By contrast, a substantial impact of spatial alterations patterns on the stiffness evolution of reservoir sandstones are only observed in case of certain microstructures, such as highly porous granular rocks or sandstones comprising framework-supporting cementations. In order to construct synthetic granular samples a process-based approach is proposed including grain deposition and diagenetic cementation. It is demonstrated that the generated samples reliably represent the microstructural complexity of natural sandstones. Thereby, general limitations of imaging techniques can be overcome and various realisations of granular rocks can be flexibly produced. These can be further altered by virtual experiments, offering a fast and cost-effective way to examine the impact of precipitation, dissolution or fracturing on various petrophysical correlations. The presented research work provides methodological principles to quantify trends in permeability and stiffness resulting from geochemical processes. The calculated physical property relations are directly linked to pore-scale alterations, and thus have a higher accuracy than commonly applied analytical approaches. This will considerably improve the predictive capabilities of reservoir models, and is further relevant to assess and reduce potential risks, such as productivity or injectivity losses as well as reservoir compaction or fault reactivation. Hence, the proposed method is of paramount importance for a wide range of natural and engineered subsurface applications, including geothermal energy systems, hydrocarbon reservoirs, CO2 and energy storage as well as hydrothermal deposit exploration

Description: Geochemische Lösungs- und Fällungsprozesse verändern die Struktur des Porenraums und können dadurch die hydraulischen und mechanischen Gesteinseigenschaften erheblich beeinflussen. Die Quantifizierung dieser Parameteränderung und ihre Berücksichtigung in Reservoirmodellen ist entscheidend für eine nachhaltige Nutzung des geologischen Untergrunds. Aufgrund fehlender Alternativen werden dafür bisher analytische Methoden genutzt. Da diese Ansätze eine idealisierte Mikrostruktur annehmen, können insbesondere Änderungen der Gesteinseigenschaften infolge von dynamischen Prozessen nicht zuverlässig abgebildet werden. Ziel der vorliegenden Doktorarbeit ist es deshalb, die Entwicklung von Gesteinspermeabilitäten und -steifigkeiten aufgrund von Porenraumveränderungen genauer vorherzusagen. Für die möglichst exakte Bestimmung physikalischer Gesteinsparameter ist eine detaillierte Darstellung der Mikrostruktur notwendig. Basierend auf mikro-computertomographischen Scans werden daher hochaufgelöste, dreidimensionale Modelle typischer Reservoirsandsteine erstellt und Gesteinspermeabilität und -steifigkeit numerisch berechnet. Um charakteristische Verteilungen von Sekundärmineralen abzubilden, wird der Porenraum dieser virtuellen Sandsteinproben systematisch verändert und die resultierenden Auswirkungen auf die granulometrischen, hydraulischen und elastischen Gesteinseigenschaften bestimmt. Die Ergebnisse zeigen deutlich, dass charakteristische Fällungsmuster unterschiedlicher geochemischer Reaktionsregime die Permeabilität erheblich beeinflussen. Folglich ist die Nutzung von porenskaligen Modellen zur Bestimmung der Porosität-Permeabilitätsbeziehungen unbedingt notwendig. Im Gegensatz dazu ist die Verteilung von Sekundärmineralen für die Gesteinssteifigkeit nur bei bestimmten Mikrostrukturen von Bedeutung, hierzu zählen hochporöse Sandsteine oder solche mit Korngerüst-stützenden Zementierungen. In der Arbeit wird außerdem ein Ansatz zur Konstruktion granularer Gesteine vorgestellt, welcher sowohl die Kornsedimentation als auch die diagenetische Verfestigung umfasst. Es wird gezeigt, dass die synthetischen Proben die mikrostrukturelle Komplexität natürlicher Reservoirsandsteine gut abbilden. Dadurch können generelle Limitationen von bildgebenden Verfahren überwunden und unterschiedlichste virtuelle Repräsentationen von granularen Gesteinen generiert werden. Die synthetischen Proben können zukünftig in virtuellen Experimenten verwendet werden, um die Auswirkungen von Lösungs- und Fällungsreaktionen auf verschiedene petrophysikalische Korrelationen zu untersuchen. Die vorgestellte Arbeit liefert methodische Grundlagen zur Quantifizierung von Permeabilitäts- und Steifigkeitsänderungen infolge geochemischer Prozesse. Die berechneten petrophysikalischen Beziehungen basieren direkt auf mikrostrukturellen Veränderungen des Porenraums. Daher bieten sie eine genauere Vorhersage der Gesteinseigenschaften als herkömmliche analytische Methoden, wodurch sich die Aussagekraft von Reservoirmodellen erheblich verbessert. Somit können Risiken, wie Produktivitäts- oder Injektivitätsverluste sowie Reservoirkompaktion oder Störungsreaktivierung, verringert werden. Die präsentierten Ergebnisse sind daher relevant für verschiedenste Bereiche der geologischen Untergrundnutzung wie CO2- oder Energiespeicherung, Geothermie, Kohlenwasserstoffgewinnung sowie die Erkundung hydrothermaler Lagerstätten.

Description: Due to the major role of greenhouse gas emissions in global climate change, the development of non-fossil energy technologies is essential. Deep geothermal energy represents such an alternative, which offers promising properties such as a high base load capability and a large untapped potential. The present work addresses barite precipitation within geothermal systems and the associated reduction in rock permeability, which is a major obstacle to maintaining high efficiency. In this context, hydro-geochemical models are essential to quantify and predict the effects of precipitation on the efficiency of a system. The objective of the present work is to quantify the induced injectivity loss using numerical and analytical reactive transport simulations. For the calculations, the fractured-porous reservoirs of the German geothermal regions North German Basin (NGB) and Upper Rhine Graben (URG) are considered. Similar depth-dependent precipitation potentials could be determined for both investigated regions (2.8-20.2 g/m3 fluid). However, the reservoir simulations indicate that the injectivity loss due to barite deposition in the NGB is significant (1.8%-6.4% per year) and the longevity of the system is affected as a result; this is especially true for deeper reservoirs (3000 m). In contrast, simulations of URG sites indicate a minor role of barite (〈 0.1%-1.2% injectivity loss per year). The key differences between the investigated regions are reservoir thicknesses and the presence of fractures in the rock, as well as the ionic strength of the fluids. The URG generally has fractured-porous reservoirs with much higher thicknesses, resulting in a greater distribution of precipitates in the subsurface. Furthermore, ionic strengths are higher in the NGB, which accelerates barite precipitation, causing it to occur more concentrated around the wellbore. The more concentrated the precipitates occur around the wellbore, the higher the injectivity loss. In this work, a workflow was developed within which numerical and analytical models can be used to estimate and quantify the risk of barite precipitation within the reservoir of geothermal systems. A key element is a newly developed analytical scaling score that provides a reliable estimate of induced injectivity loss. The key advantage of the presented approach compared to fully coupled reservoir simulations is its simplicity, which makes it more accessible to plant operators and decision makers. Thus, in particular, the scaling score can find wide application within geothermal energy, e.g., in the search for potential plant sites and the estimation of long-term efficiency.

Description: Aufgrund der tragenden Rolle der Treibhausgasemissionen für den globalen Klimawandel ist die Entwicklung von nicht-fossilen Energietechnologien essenziell. Die Tiefengeothermie stellt eine solche Alternative dar, welche vielversprechende Eigenschaften wie eine hohe Grundlastfähigkeit und ein großes ungenutztes Potenzial bietet. Die vorliegende Arbeit befasst sich mit Barytausfällungen inner- halb geothermaler Systeme und der damit einhergehenden Verringerung der Gesteinsdurchlässigkeit, welche ein Haupthindernis für die Aufrechterhaltung einer hohen Effizienz darstellen. Dabei sind hydro-geochemische Modelle unerlässlich, um die Auswirkungen von Ausfällungen auf die Effizienz eines Systems zu quantifizieren und vorherzusagen. Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit ist es, mittels numerischer und analytischer reaktiver Transportsimulationen, den induzierten Injektivitätsverlust zu quantifizieren. Für die Berechnungen werden die klüftig-porösen Reservoire der deutschen Geothermieregionen Norddeutsches Becken (NDB) und Oberrheingraben (ORG) betrachtet. Für beide untersuchte Regionen konnte ein ähnliches, tiefenabhängiges Fällungspotenzial bestimmt werden (2,8–20,2 g/m3 Fluid). Die Reservoirsimulationen zeigen jedoch, dass der Injektivitätsverlust aufgrund von Barytablagerungen im NDB erheblich ist (1,8%–6,4% pro Jahr) und die Langlebigkeit der Anlage dadurch beeinträchtigt wird, dies gilt insbesondere für tiefere Reservoire (3000 m). Im Gegensatz dazu deuten die Simulationen der ORG-Standorte auf eine untergeordnete Rolle von Baryt hin (〈 0,1%–1,2% Injektivitätsverlust pro Jahr). Die entscheidenden Unterschiede zwischen den untersuchten Regionen sind die Reservoirmächtigkeiten und das Vorhandensein von Rissen im Gestein sowie die Ionenstärke der Fluide. Der ORG weist in der Regel klüftig-poröse Reservoire mit deutlich höheren Mächtigkeiten auf, was zu einer größeren Verteilung der Präzipitate im Untergrund führt. Weiterhin sind die Ionenstärken im NDB höher, was die Barytausfällung beschleunigt und diese dadurch konzentrierter um das Bohrloch herum entstehen lässt. Je konzentrierter die Präzipitate um die Bohrung herum auftreten, desto höher ist der Injektivitätsverlust. In dieser Arbeit wurde ein Workflow erarbeitet, innerhalb dessen mittels numerischer und analytischer Modelle das Risiko von Barytausfällungen innerhalb des Reservoirs geothermischer Systeme abgeschätzt und quantifiziert werden kann. Ein zentrales Element ist ein neu entwickelter, analytischer Scaling-Score, der eine zuverlässige Schätzung des induzierten Injektivitätsverlustes ermöglicht. Der entscheidende Vorteil des präsentierten Ansatzes im Vergleich zu voll-gekoppelten Reservoirsimulationen liegt in ihrer Einfachheit, die sie für Anlagenbetreiber und Entscheidungsträger zugänglicher macht. Somit kann insbesondere der Scaling-Score eine breite Anwendung innerhalb der Geothermie finden, z.B. bei der Suche nach potenziellen Anlagenstandorten und der Abschätzung der langfristigen Effizienz.