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  • 1
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    Atmospheric circulation patterns that trigger heavy rainfall in West Africa (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-12-05
    Description: Classification of atmospheric circulation patterns (CP) is a common tool for downscaling rainfall, but it is rarely used for West Africa. In this study, a two‐step classification procedure is proposed for this region, which is applied from 1989 to 2010 for the Sudan‐Sahel zone (Central Burkina Faso) with a focus on heavy rainfall. The approach is based on a classification of large‐scale atmospheric CPs (e.g., Saharan Heat Low) of the West African Monsoon using a fuzzy rule‐based method to describe the seasonal rainfall variability. The wettest CPs are further classified using meso‐scale monsoon patterns to better describe the daily rainfall variability during the monsoon period. A comprehensive predictor screening for the seasonal classification indicates that the best performing predictor variables (e.g., surface pressure, meridional moisture fluxes) are closely related to the main processes of the West African Monsoon. In the second classification step, the stream function at 700 hPa for identifying troughs and ridges of tropical waves shows the highest performance, providing an added value to the overall performance of the classification. Thus, the new approach can better distinguish between dry and wet CPs during the rainy season. Moreover, CPs are identified that are of high relevance for daily heavy rainfall in the study area. The two wettest CPs caused roughly half of the extremes on about 6.5% of days. Both wettest patterns are characterized by an intensified Saharan Heat Low and a cyclonic rotation near the study area, indicating a tropical wave trough. Since the classification can be used to condition other statistical approaches used in climate sciences and other disciplines, the presented classification approach opens many different applications for the West African Monsoon region.
    Description: A two‐step classification of daily atmospheric circulation patterns is used to describe seasonal and daily rainfall variability in West Africa. The approach clearly distinguishes between dry and wet patterns if sea level pressure and stream function at 700 hPa are used. The two wettest patterns trigger about half of heavy rainfall events in Central Burkina Faso. They are characterized by an intensified Saharan Heat Low and a cyclonic rotation indicating a tropical wave trough near the study area.
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Keywords: ddc:551.5 ; circulation pattern ; classification ; downscaling ; heavy rainfall ; West Africa
    Language: English
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  • 2
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    Comparing the performance of high‐resolution global precipitation products across topographic and climatic gradients of Central Asia (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2022-10-13
    Description: Accurate and reliable precipitation data with high spatial and temporal resolution are essential in studying climate variability, water resources management, and hydrological forecasting. A range of global precipitation data are available to this end, but how well these capture actual precipitation remains unknown, particularly for mountain regions where ground stations are sparse. We examined the performance of three global high‐resolution precipitation products for capturing precipitation over Central Asia, a hotspot of climate change, where reliable precipitation data are particularly scarce. Specifically, we evaluated MSWEP, CHIRPS, and GSMAP against independent gauging stations for the period 1985–2015. Our results show that MSWEP and CHIRPS outperformed GSMAP for wetter periods (i.e., winter and spring) and wetter locations (150–600 mm·year−1), lowlands, and mid‐altitudes (0–3,000 m), and regions dominated by winter and spring precipitation. MSWEP performed best in representing temporal precipitation dynamics and CHIRPS excelled in capturing the volume and distribution of precipitation. All precipitation products poorly estimated precipitation at higher elevations (〉3,000 m), in drier areas (〈150 mm), and in regions characterized by summer precipitation. All products accurately detected dry spells, but their performance decreased for wet spells with increasing precipitation intensity. In sum, we find that CHIRPS and MSWEP provide the most reliable high‐resolution precipitation estimates for Central Asia. However, the high spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the performance call for a careful selection of a suitable product for local applications considering the prevailing precipitation dynamics, climatic, and topographic conditions.
    Description: We present the first quantitative evaluation of global high‐resolution (below 12 km) precipitation products against independent ground observations over Central Asia. Our results show that MSWEP was best at representing temporal precipitation dynamics, and CHIRPS was most prominent in representing the volume and distribution of precipitation. This is especially the case of wet seasons, altitudes below 3,000 m, and regions dominated by spring and winter precipitation. Our analysis provides key insights on the precipitation products' suitability for local hydrological applications.
    Description: Leibniz‐Institut für Agrarentwicklung in Transformationsökonomien
    Description: Volkswagen Foundation http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001663
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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  • 3
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    Synoptic circulation changes over Central Europe from 1900 to 2100: Reanalyses and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2022-09-27
    Description: While the evidence for anthropogenic climate change continues to strengthen, and concerns about severe weather events are increasing, global projections of regional climate change are still uncertain due to model‐dependent changes in large‐scale atmospheric circulation, including over North Atlantic and Europe. Here, the Jenkinson–Collison classification of daily circulation patterns is used to evaluate past and future changes in their seasonal frequencies over Central Europe for the 1900–2100 period. Three reanalyses and eight global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6, were used based on daily mean sea‐level pressure data. Best agreement in deriving relative frequencies of the synoptic types was found between the reanalyses. Global models can generally capture the interannual variability of circulation patterns and their climatological state, especially for the less frequent synoptic types. Based on historical data and the shared socioeconomic pathway 5 scenario, the evaluated trends show more robust signals during summer, given their lesser internal variability. Increasing frequencies were found for circulation types characterized by weak pressure gradients, mainly at the expense of decreasing frequencies of westerlies. Our findings indicate that given a high‐emission scenario, these signals will likely emerge from past climate variability towards the mid‐21st century for most altered circulation patterns.
    Description: Daily synoptic circulation patterns are derived using the Jenkinson–Collinson automated classification over Central Europe to evaluate past and future changes in their temporal frequencies. Reanalyses and eight global climate models from the CMIP6 were used based on the historical experiment and a high‐emission scenario. More robust signals were found during the summer season leading to emerging changes towards the mid‐21st century.
    Description: H2020 Marie Skłodowska‐Curie Actions http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010665
    Description: EU International Training Network (ITN) Climate Advanced Forecasting of sub‐seasonal Extremes (CAFE)
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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  • 4
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    On gravity wave parameterisation in vicinity of low‐level blocking (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2022-09-22
    Description: This note is framed as an open question to the community regarding parameterisation schemes using the blocking layer depth to reduce the orographic gravity wave drag. It is the purpose of this note to argue that the current orographic gravity wave drag parameterisation in the vicinity of blocking is inadequate. Reducing the gravity wave amplitude (and thereby reducing the gravity wave drag) by assuming an effective mountain height dependent on the blocking depth is not realistic. The arguments given here will hopefully spark a debate and new considerations, ultimately leading to improvements in current orographic gravity wave drag parameterisations. This note illustrates that low‐level blocking can induce more gravity waves or gravity waves with a higher momentum flux (compared to the current parameterisation schemes). More realistic parameterisation schemes are likely to improve the models' performance. However, the fact is complex theories are needed to describe gravity wave excitation by orography so that it is difficult to represent gravity wave nature by a ‘too simple’ parameterisation scheme.
    Description: The purpose of this letter is to provide arguments that the current gravity wave drag parameterisation in the vicinity of blocking is inadequate. Reducing the gravity wave drag depending on the blocking depth is not a realistic representation. The letter lists five ways in which the blocking layer can result in a greater amount of gravity wave drag.
    Keywords: ddc:551.5
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    How close are we to 1.5 degC or 2 degC of global warming? (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2022-08-09
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    Highly resolved modeling of extreme wind speed in North America and Europe (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2022-08-09
    Description: High wind speed (U) is one of the most dangerous natural hazards in North America and Europe. As a result, spatially explicit, statistical estimation of extreme U is of particular relevance for many sectors. However, the most common sources of wind speed data such as reanalysis data and in situ measurements are limited for this purpose due to their coarse spatial resolution and low representativeness. Thus, the main goal was to develop a high spatial resolution (250 m × 250 m) model (GloWiSMo‐X) for monthly mapping of the maximum hourly U for a 10‐year return period (U10yr) in North America and Europe. The multistep development of GloWiSMo‐X is based on 2544 hourly U time series available from the integrated surface global hourly meteorological data set (UNCEI), U time series from ERA5 (UERA5), and mean wind speed from the Global Wind Speed Model (U¯GloWiSMo). Firstly, the block maxima method was applied to estimate monthly wind speed for a 10‐year return period for both UNCEI (U10yr,NCEI) and UERA5 (U10yr,ERA5). Secondly, the least squares boosting approach was used to predict the target variable U10yr,NCEI yielding the predictions Û10yr. The predictor variables U10yr,ERA5, U¯GloWiSMo, continent, and month were used as input. It was found that the highest monthly continental means of Û10yr (U¯10yr) in January are 16.4 m/s in North America and 16.3 m/s in Europe. U¯10yr dropped to 13.4 m/s and 12.5 m/s in August. The annual cycle of U¯10yr is more pronounced in Europe than in North America. The central parts of the USA and Western Europe were identified as intracontinental regions with the highest U¯10yr. GloWiSMo‐X proves to be very broadly applicable as it covers two different continents and all months. The model validation by the mean squared error (MSE) demonstrates its improved predictive power compared to ERA5.
    Description: A high spatial resolution (250 m × 250 m) model (GloWiSMo‐X) for monthly mapping of the maximum hourly wind speed for a 10‐year return period in North America and Europe was developed. The highest monthly continental means are 16.4 m/s in North America and 16.3 m/s in Europe. Due to the pronounced annual cycle, it drops to 13.4 m/s and 12.5 m/s in August. image
    Description: Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und nukleare Sicherheit
    Keywords: ddc:551.5
    Language: English
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  • 7
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    Responses of soil organic carbon, aggregate diameters, and hydraulic properties to long‐term organic and conventional farming on a Vertisol in India (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2022-08-09
    Description: Organic matter management can improve soil structural properties. This is crucial for agricultural soils in tropical regions threatened by high rainfall intensities. Compared to conventional farming, organic farming is usually deemed to increase organic carbon and improve soil structural properties such as stability and permeability. However, how much, if any, buildup of organic carbon is possible or indeed occurring also depends on soil type and environmental factors. We compared the impact of seven years of organic farming (annually 13.6 t ha−1 of composted manure) with that of conventional practices (2 t ha−1 of farmyard manure with 150–170 kg N ha−1 of mineral fertilizers) on soil structural properties. The study was conducted on a Vertisol in India with a two‐year crop rotation of cotton soybean wheat. Despite large differences in organic amendment application, organic carbon was not significantly different at 9.6 mg C g−1 on average in the topsoil. However, the size distribution of water‐stable aggregates shifted toward more aggregates 〈137 μm in the organic systems. Cumulative water intake was lower compared to the conventional systems, leading to higher runoff and erosion. These changes might be related to the lower pH and higher exchangeable sodium in the organic systems. Our results indicate that higher application of organic amendments did not lead to higher soil organic carbon and associated improvement in soil structures properties compared to integrated fertilization in this study. Chemical properties may dominate soil aggregation retarding the uptake and integration of organic amendments for sustainable agricultural intensification in tropical, semiarid climates.
    Description: Biovision Foundation for Ecological Development http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100015593
    Description: Coop Sustainability Fund
    Description: Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC)
    Description: Foundation fiat panis http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100011087
    Description: Liechtenstein Development Service http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100015698
    Description: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.18665612
    Keywords: ddc:631.4
    Language: English
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  • 8
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    A storyline attribution of the 2011/2012 drought in Southeastern South America (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2022-08-04
    Description: The 2011/2012 summer drought in Southeastern South America (SESA) was a short but devastating event. What would this event have looked like under pre‐industrial conditions, or in a +2 degC world? We find that climate change causes the region to be at a higher risk of drought. However, we found no large‐scale changes in the half‐month water budgets. We show that the climate change induced positive precipitation trend in the region outweighs the increased temperatures and potential evapotranspiration during the 2011/2012 drought. image
    Keywords: ddc:551.5
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    Recent evidence for warmer and drier growing seasons in climate sensitive regions of Central America from multiple global datasets (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2022-07-26
    Description: Smallholder livelihoods throughout Central America are built on rain‐fed agriculture and depend on seasonal variations in temperature and precipitation. Recent climatic shifts in this highly diverse region are not well understood due to sparse observations, and as the skill of global climate products have not been thoroughly evaluated. We examine the performance for several reanalysis and satellite‐based global climate data products (CHIRPS/CHIRTS, ERA5, MERRA‐2, PERSIANN‐CDR) as compared to the observation‐based GPCC precipitation dataset. These datasets are then used to evaluate the magnitude and spatial extent of hydroclimatic shifts and changes in aridity and drought over the last four decades. We focus on water‐limited regions that are important for rain‐fed agriculture and particularly vulnerable to further drying, and newly delineate those regions for Central America and Mexico by adapting prior definitions of the Central American Dry Corridor. Our results indicate that the CHIRPS dataset exhibits the greatest skill for the study area. A general warming of 0.2–0.8°C·decade−1 was found across the region, particularly for spring and winter, while widespread drying was indicated by several measures for the summer growing season. Changes in annual precipitation have been inconsistent, but show declines of 20–25% in eastern Honduras/Nicaragua and in several parts of Mexico. Some regions most vulnerable to drying have been subject to statistically significant trends towards summer drying, increases in drought and aridity driven by precipitation declines, and/or a lengthening of the winter dry season, highlighting areas where climate adaptation measures may be most urgent.
    Description: Over the past four decades, precipitation trends are the main driver of drought trends, with temperature trends playing a small role. The most widespread drying and increases in aridity have occurred during the summer growing season. Based on delimitations of water‐limited and climate‐sensitive regions (brown shading) that are important for rain‐fed agriculture, some of these highly vulnerable regions overlap with areas of significant drying (red), highlighting potential prioritization areas for climate adaptation measures. image
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: Frias Institute of Advanced Studies (FRIAS) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003190
    Description: National Science Foundation http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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  • 10
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    Spatio‐temporal patterns in degradation and restoration of gravel bars along Alpine rivers (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2022-06-28
    Description: Braided reaches were common along near‐natural Alpine rivers, and the associated habitat dynamics supported plant and animal species specialized on early‐successional stages. The extensive riparian zones could mitigate climate change by absorbing floods and by retaining water during droughts. Human impacts largely reduced active river corridors through altered discharge and construction of dykes, while recent restoration projects aim at increasing river dynamics. The causes and consequences of Alpine river degradation are well understood, but there are only few quantitative studies on floodplain degradation and restoration. Thus, we have reconstructed historical changes of gravel bars along five Alpine rivers (Iller, Inn, Isar, Lech, and Wertach) in Southern Germany in the period 1808–2009, based on historical maps and aerial images. We found losses of 〉90% in gravel bar area along these rivers since the mid‐19th century. The decline was caused by a reduction of the active river corridor and by ongoing succession of the remaining open habitats. Within the past 30 years, at the Isar River, restoration measures were realized with the aim to widen the active river corridor and to recreate gravel bars. In four restored reaches, we found that 5% of the historical gravel bar area recovered, and that the proportion of restored gravel bar area was highest after intermediate flooding. We conclude that the active river corridors of German Alpine rivers are almost completely lost, and that more extensive restoration needs to be done to preserve the habitat dynamics and biodiversity of these systems, and to adapt Alpine rivers to climate change.
    Description: Deutsche Bundesstiftung Umwelt http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100007636
    Keywords: ddc:551.35
    Language: English
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