ALBERT

Note: Contents: Preface. - 1 Cosmic rays. - 1.1 Origin and nature of cosmic rays. - 1.2 Interaction with magnetic fields. - 1.3 Interactions with the Earth's atmosphere. - 1.4 Interactions with the Earth's surface. - 1.5 Production of cosmogenic nuclides. - 1.6 Detection of cosmic rays. - 2 Cosmogenic nuclides. - 2.1 'Useful' cosmogenic nuclides. - 2.2 Stable cosmogenic nuclides. - 2.3 Cosmogenic radionuclides. - 2.4 Sample preparation. - 2.5 Analytical methods. - 3 Production rates and scaling factors. - 3.1 Deriving production rates. - 3.2 Scaling factors. - 3.3 Building scaling factors. - 4 Application of cosmogenic nuclldes to Earth surface sciences. - 4.1 Exposure dating. - 4.2 Burial dating. - 4.3 Erosion/denudation rates. - 4.4 Uplift rates. - 4.5 Soil dynamics. - 4.6 Dealing with uncertainty. - Appendix A: Sampling checklist. - Appendix B: Reporting of cosrnogenic-nudide data for exposure age and erosion rate determinations. - References. - Index.

Note: Foreword; Acknowledgements; List of participating members of the Expert Group; CONTENTS; List of tables; List of figures; Executive summary; Part I: Methodology and Data on Levelised Costs for Generating Electricity; Chapter 1 Introduction and context; Chapter 2 Methodology, conventions and key assumptions; Chapter 3 Technology overview; Chapter 4 Country-by-country data on electricity generating costs for different technologies; Part 2: Sensitivity analyses and boundary issues; Chapter 5 Median case; Chapter 6 Sensitivity analyses. , Chapter 7 System integration aspects of variable renewable power generationChapter 8 Financing issues; Chapter 9 Levelised costs and the working of actual power markets; Chapter 10 Carbon capture and storage; Chapter 11 Synthesis report on other studies of the levelised cost of electricity; ANNEXES; Annex 1 Issues concerning data from non-OECD countries and assumptions forthe electricity generating cost calculations; Annex 2 List of abbreviations;.

Note: Contents Preface 1 Introduction 1.1 The necessity for measurements 1.2 Definition of a measurement 1.3 Historical aspects 2 Measurement basics 2.1 Overview of methods 2.1.1 Direct and indirect methods 2.1.2 In-situ and remote sensing methods 2.1.3 Instantaneous and integrating methods 2.1.4 On-line and off-line methods, post-processing 2.1.5 Flux measurements 2.2 Main measurement principles 2.3 Measurements by inversion 2.3.1 Inversion with one variable 2.3.2 Inversion with more than one variable 2.3.3 Well-posed and ill-posed problems 2.4 Measurement instruments 2.4.1 Active and passive instruments 2.4.2 Analogue and digital instruments 2.5 Measurement platforms 2.6 Measurement variables 2.7 General characteristics of measured data 2.8 Data logging 2.9 Quality assurance/quality control 3 In-situ measurements of state variables 3.1 Thermometers 3.1.1 Liquid-in-glass thermometers 3.1.2 Bimetal thermometers 3.1.3 Resistance thermometers, thermistors 3.1.4 Thermocouples, thermopiles 3.1.5 Sonic thermometry 3.1.6 Measurement of infrared radiation 3.1.7 Soil thermometer 3.1.8 Recommendations for temperature measurements 3.2 Measuring moisture 3.2.1 Hygrometer 3.2.2 Psychrometers 3.2.3 Dewpoint determination 3.2.4 Capacitive methods 3.2.5 Recommendations for humidity measurements 3.3 Pressure sensors 3.3.1 Barometers 3.3.2 Hypsometers 3.3.3 Electronic barometers 3.3.4 Microbarometer 3.3.5 Pressure balance 3.3.6 Recommendations for pressure measurements 3.4 Wind measurements 3.4.1 Estimation from visual observations 3.4.2 Wind direction 3.4.3 Cup anemometer 3.4.4 Pressure tube 3.4.5 Hot wire anemometer 3.4.6 Ultrasonic anemometer 3.4.7 Propeller anemometer 3.4.8 Recommendations for wind measurements 4 In-situ methods for observing liquid water and ice 4.1 Precipitation 4.1.1 Rain sensors (Present Weather Sensors) 4.1.2 Rain gauges (totalisators) 4.1.3 Pluviographs 4.1.4 Disdrometer 4.1.5 Special instruments for snow 4.1.6 Recommendations for precipitation measurements 4.2 Soil moisture 4.2.1 Gravimetric methods 4.2.2 Neutron probes 4.2.3 Time domain reflectrometry (TDR) 4.2.4 Tensiometers 4.2.5 Resistance block tensiometer 4.2.6 Recommendations for soil moisture measurements 5 In-situ measurement of trace substances 5.1 Measurement of trace gases 5.1.1 Physical methods 5.1.2 Chemical methods 5.1.3 Recommendations for the measurement of trace gases 5.2 Particle measurements 5.2.1 Determination of the particle mass 5.2.2 Measuring particle size distributions 5.2.3 Measurement of the chemical composition of particles 5.2.4 Measuring the particle structure 5.2.5 Saltiphon 5.2.6 Recommendations for particle measurements 5.3 Olfactometry 5.4 Radioactivity 5.4.1 Counter tubes 5.4.2 Scintillation counters 5.4.3 Recommendations for radioactivity monitoring 6 In-situ flux measurements 6.1 Measuring radiation 6.1.1 Measuring direct solar radiation 6.1.2 Measuring shortwave irradiance 6.1.3 Measuring longwave irradiance 6.1.4 Measuring the total irradiance 6.1.5 Measuring chill 6.1.6 Sunshine recorder 6.1.7 Recommendations for radiation measurements 6.2 Visual range 6.3 Micrometeorological flux measurements 6.3.1 Cuvettes 6.3.2 Surface chambers 6.3.3 Mass balance method 6.3.4 Inferential method 6.3.5 Gradient method 6.3.6 Bowen-ratio method 6.3.7 Flux variance method 6.3.8 Dissipation method 6.3.9 Eddy covariance method 6.3.10 Eddy accumulation methods 6.3.11 Disjunct eddy covariance method 6.3.12 Recommendations for the measurement of turbulent fluxes 6.4 Evaporation Atmometers 6.4.2 Lysimeters 6.4.3 Evaporation pans and tanks 6.4.4 Recommendations for evaporation measurements 6.5 Soil heat flux 6.6 Inverse emission flux modelling 7 Remote sensing methods 7.1 Basics of remote sensing 7.2 Active sounding methods 7.2.1 RADAR 7.2.2 Windprofilers 7.2.3 SODAR 7.2.4 RASS 7.2.5 LIDAR 7.2.6 Further LIDAR techniques 7.3 Active path-averaging methods 7.3.1 Scintillometers 7.3.2 FTIR 7.3.3 DOAS 7.3.4 Quantum cascade laser 7.4 Passive methods 7.4.1 Radiometers 7.4.2 Photometers 7.4.3 Infrared-Interferometer 7.5 Tomography 7.5.1 Simultaneous Iterative Reconstruction Technique 7.5.2 Algebraic Reconstruction Technique (ART) 7.5.3 Smooth Basis Function Minimization (SBFM) 8 Remote sensing of atmospheric state variables 8.1 Temperature 8.1.1 Near-surface temperatures 8.1.2 Temperature profiles 8.2 Gaseous humidity 8.2.1 Integral water vapour content 8.2.2 Vertical profiles 8.2.3 Large-scale humidity distribution 8.3 Wind and turbulence 8.3.1 Small-scale near-surface turbulence 8.3.2 Horizontal wind fields 8.3.3 Vertical wind profiles 8.3.4 Turbulence profiles 8.3.5 Cloud winds 8.3.6 Ionospheric winds 8.4 Mixing-layer heights 8.4.1 LIDAR 8.4.2 SODAR 8.5 Turbulent fluxes 8.6 Ionospheric electron densities 8.7 Recommendations for remote sensing of state variables 9 Remote sensing of water and ice 9.1 Precipitation 9.1.1 RADAR 9.1.2 Precipitation measurements from satellites 9.2 Clouds 9.2.1 Cloud base 9.2.2 Cloud cover 9.2.3 Cloud movement 9.2.4 Water content 9.3 Recommendations for remote sensing of liquid water and ice 10 Remote sensing of trace substances 10.1 Trace gases 10.1.1 Horizontal path-averaging methods 10.1.2 Vertical column densities 10.1.3 Sounding methods 10.2 Aerosols 10.2.1 Aerosol optical depths (AOD) 10.2.2 Sounding methods 10.3 Recommendations for remote sensing of trace substances 11 Remote sensing of surface properties 11.1 Properties of the solid surface 11.1.1 Surface roughness 11.1.2 Land surface temperature 11.1.3 Soil moisture 11.1.4 Vegetation 11.1.5 Snow and ice 11.1.6 Fires 11.2 Properties of the ocean surface 11.2.1 Altitudes of the sea surface 11.2.2 Wave heights 11.2.3 Sea surface temperature 11.2.4 Salinity 11.2.5 Ocean currents 11.2.6 Ice cover, size of ice floes 11.2.7 Algae and suspended sediment concentrations 12 Remote sensing of electrical phenomena 12.1 Spherics 12.1.1 Directional analyses 12.1.2 Distance analyses 12.2 Optical lightning detection 13 Outlook on new developments Literature Subject index Appendix: Technical guidelines and standards Index to the Appendix

Note: Contents: F–1. GLACIERS OF THE FORMER SOVIET UNION / VLADIMIR M. KOTLYAKOV, with contributions from A.M. DYAKOVA (Siberia), V.S. KORYAKIN (Russian Arctic Islands), V.I. KRAVTSOVA (Caucasus, Altay), G.B. OSIPOVA (Tien Shan), G.M. VARNAKOVA (Pamirs and Alai Range), V.N. VINOGRADOV (Kamchatka), O.N. VINOGRADOV (Caucasus), and N.M. ZVERKOVA (Ural Mountains and Taymyr Peninsula) Sections on FLUCTUATIONS OF GLACIERS OF THE CENTRAL CAUCASUS AND GORA EL’BRUS (With a subsection on THE GLACIOLOGICAL DISASTER IN NORTH OSETIYA / VLADIMIR M. KOTLYAKOV, O.V. ROTOTAEVA, and G.A. NOSENKO INVESTIGATIONS OF THE FLUCTUATIONS OF SURGE-TYPE GLACIERS IN THE PAMIRS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM SPACE / VLADIMIR M. KOTLYAKOV, G.B. OSIPOVA, and D.G. TSVETKOV THE GLACIOLOGY OF THE RUSSIAN HIGH ARCTIC FROM LANDSAT IMAGERY / J.A. DOWDESWELL, E.K. DOWDESWELL, M. WILLIAMS, and A.F. GLAZOVSKII F–2. GLACIERS OF CHINA / SHI YAFENG, MI DESHENG, YAO TANDONG, ZENG QUNZHU, and LIU CHAOHAI F–3 GLACIERS OF AFGHANISTAN / JOHN E. SHRODER , JR ., and MICHAEL P. BISHOP F–4 GLACIERS OF PAKISTAN / JOHN E. SHRODER , JR ., and MICHAEL P. BISHOP F–5 GLACIERS OF INDIA / CHANDER P. VOHRA Updated supplement on A STUDY OF SELECTED GLACIERS UNDER THE CHANGING CLIMATE REGIME / SYED IQBAL HASNAIN, RAJESH KUMAR , SAFARAZ AHMAD, and SHRESTH TAYAL F–6 GLACIERS OF NEPAL — GLACIER DISTRIBUTION IN THE NEPAL HIMALAYA WITH COMPARISON TO THE KARAKORAM RANGE / KEIJI HIGUCHI, OKITSUGU WATANABE, HIROJI FUSHIMI, SHUHEI TAKENAKA, and AKIO NAGOSHI, Supplement by YUTAKA AGETA F–7 GLACIERS OF BHUTAN / SHUJI IWATA F–8 THE PALEOENVIRONMENTAL RECORD PRESERVED IN MIDDLE-LATITUDE, HIGH-MOUNTAIN GLACIERS: AN OVERVIEW OF U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY RESEARCH IN CENTRAL ASIA AND THE UNITED STATES / L. DeWAYNE CECIL, DAVID L. NAFTZ, PAUL F. SCHUSTER , DAVID D. SUSONG, and JAROMY R . GREEN

Note: PART I: BIOSPHERE - 1. Forest disturbance assessment using satellite data of moderate and low resolution / M. A. Korets, V. A. Ryzhkova, A. I. Sukhinin, S. A. Bartalev and I. V. Danilova 2. Fire / climate interactions in Siberia / Heiko Balzter, Kevin Tansey, Jorg Kaduk, Charles George, France Gerard, Maria Cuevas Gonzalez, Anatoly Sukhinin and Evgeni Ponomarev 3. Long-term dynamics of mixed fir-aspen forests in West Sayan (Altai-Sayan Ecoregion) / D. M. Ismailova and D. I. Nazimova 4. Evidence of evergreen conifers invasion into larch dominated forests during recent decades / V. I. Kharuk, K. J. Ranson and M. L. Dvinskaya 5. Potential climate-induced vegetation change in Siberia in the 21st century / N. M. Tchebakova , E. I. Parfenova, and A. J. Soja 6. Wildfire dynamics in mid-Siberian larch dominated forests / V. I. Kharuk, K. J. Ranson and M. L. Dvinskaya 7. Dendroclimatological evidence of climate changes across Siberia / Vladimir V. Shishov, Eugene A. Vaganov 8. Siberian pine and larch response to climate warming in the southern Siberian mountain forest: tundra ecotone / V. I. Kharuk, K. J. Ranson, M. L. Dvinskaya and S. T. Im PART II: HYDROSPHERE 9. Remote sensing of spring snowmelt in Siberia / A. Bartsch, W. Wagner and R. Kidd 10. Response of river runoff in the cryolithic zone of Eastern Siberia (Lena River Basin) to future climate warming / A. G. Georgiadi, I. P. Milyukova and E. A. Kashutina PART III: ATMOSPHERE 11. Investigating regional scale processes using remotely sensed atmospheric CO2 column concentrations from SCIAMACHY / M. P. Barkley, A. J. Hewitt and P. S. Monks 12. Climatic and geographic patterns of spatial distribution of precipitation in Siberia / A. Onuchin and T. Burenina PART IV: INFORMATION SYSTEMS 13. Interoperability, data discovery and access: the e-Infrastructures for Earth Sciences resources / Stefano Nativi, Christiana Schmullius, Lorenzo Bigagli and Roman Gerlach 14. Development of a web based information-computational infrastructure for the Siberia Integrated Regional Study / E. P. Gordov, A. Z. Fazliev, V. N. Lykosov, I. G. Okladnikov and A. G. Titov 15. Conclusions / Heiko Balzter. - Appendix. - Index.

Note: Contents: Preface. - 1. Introduction. - 1.1 The environment of the polar regions. - 1.2 The role of the polar regions in the global climate system. - 1.3 Possible implications of high latitude climate change. - 2. Polar climate data and models. - 2.1 Introduction. - 2.2 Instrumental observations. - 2.3 Meteorological analysis fields. - 2.4 Remotely sensed data. - 2.5 Proxy climate data. - 2.6 Models. - 3. The high latitude climates and mechanisms of change. - 3.1 Introduction. - 3.2 Factors influencing the broadscale climated of the polar regions. - 3.3 Processes of the high latitude climates. - 3.4 The mechanisms of high latitude climate change. - 3.5 Atmospheric circulation. - 3.6 Temperature. - 3.7 Cloud and precipitation. - 3.8 Sea ice. - 3.9 The ocean circulation. - 3.10 Concluding remarks. - 4. The last million years. - 4.1 Introduction. - 4.2 The Arctic. - 4.3 The Antarctic. - 4.4 Linking high latitude climate change in the two hemispheres. - 5. The Holocene. - 5.1 Introduction. - 5.2 Forcing of the climate system during the Holocene. - 5.3 Atmospheric circulation. - 5.4 Temperature. - 5.5 The ocean circulation. - 5.6 Sea ice and sea surface temperatures. - 5.7 Atmospheric gases and aerosols. - 5.8 The cryosphere, precipitation and sea level. - 5.9 Concluding remarks. - 6. The instrumental period. - 6.1 Introduction. - 6.2 The main meteorological elements. - 6.3 Changes in the atmospheric circulation. - 6.4 The ocean environment. - 6.5 Sea ice. - 6.6. Snow cover. - 6.7 Permafrost. - 6.8 Atmospheric gases and aerosols. - 6.9 Terrestrial ice and sea level. - 6.10 Attribution of recent changes. - 6.11 Concluding remarks. - 7. Predictions for the next 100 years. - 7.1 Introduction. - 7.2 Possible future greenhouse gas emission scenarios and the IPCC models. - 7.3 Changes in the atmospheric circulation and the modes of climate variability. - 7.4 The main meteorological elements. - 7.5 The ocean circulation and water masses. - 7.6 Sea ice. - 7.7 Seasonal snow cover and the terrestrial environment. - 7.8 Permafrost. - 7.9 Atmospheric gases and aerosols. - 7.10 Terrestrial ice, the ice shelves and sea level. - 7.11 Concluding remarks. - 8. Summary and future research needs. - 8.1 Introduction. - 8.2 Gaining improved understanding of past climate change. - 8.3 Modelling the high latitude climate system. - 8.4 Data required. - 8.5 Concluding remarks. - References. - Index.

Note: Contents: Preface. - 1. Overview of climate variability and climate science. - 1.1 Climate dynamics, climate change and climate prediction. - 1.2 The chemical and physical climate system. - 1.2.1 Chemical and physical aspects of the climate system. - 1.2.2 El Niño and global warming. - 1.3 Climate models: a brief overview. - 1.4 Global change in recent history. - 1.4.1 Trace gas concentrations. - 1.4.2 A word on the ozone hole. - 1.4.3 Some history of global warming studies. - 1.4.4 Global temperatures. - 1.5 El Niño: an example of natural climate variability. - 1.5.1 Some history of El Niño studies. - 1.5.2 Observations of El Niño: the 1997-98 event. - 1.5.3 The first El Niño forecast with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. - 1.6 Paleoclimate variability. - Notes. - 2. Basics of global climate. - 2.1 Components and phenomena in the climate system. - 2.1.1 Time and space scales. - 2.1.2 Interactions among scales and the parameterization problem. - 2.2 Basics of radiative forcing. - 2.2.1 Blackbody radiation. - 2.2.2 Solar energy input. - 2.3 Globally averaged energy budget: first glance. - 2.4 Gradients of radiative forcing and energy transports. - 2.5 Atmospheric circulation. - 2.5.1 Vertical structure. - 2.5.2 Latitude structure of the circulation. - 2.5.3 Latitude-Iongitude dependence of atmospheric climate features. - 2.6 Ocean circulation. - 2.6.1 Latitude-longitude dependence of oceanic climate features. - 2.6.2 The ocean vertical structure. - 2.6.3 The ocean thermohaline circulation. - 2.7 Land surface proeesses. - 2.8 The carbon cycle. - Notes. - 3. Physical processes in the climate system. - 3.1 Conservation of momentum. - 3.1.1 Coriolis force. - 3.1.2 Pressure gradient force. - 3.1.3 Velocity equations. - 3.1.4 Application: geostrophic wind. - 3.1.5 Pressure-height relation: hydrostatic balance. - 3.1.6 Application: pressure coordinates. - 3.2 Equation of state. - 3.2.1 Equation of state for the atmosphere: ideal gas law. - 3.2.2 Equation of state for the ocean. - 3.2.3 Application: atmospheric height-pressure-temperature relation. - 3.2.4 Application: thermal circulations. - 3.2.5 Application: sea level rise due to oceanic thermal expansion. - 3.3 Temperature equation. - 3.3.1 Ocean temperature equation. - 3.3.2 Temperature equation for air. - 3.3.3 Application: the dry adiabatic lapse rate near the surface. - 3.3.4 Application: decay of a sea surface temperature anomaly. - 3.3.5 Time derivative following the parcel. - 3.4 Continuity equation. - 3.4.1 Oceanic continuity equation. - 3.4.2 Atmospheric continuity equation. - 3.4.3 Application: coastal upwelling. - 3.4.4 Application: equatorial upwelling. - 3.4.5 Application: conservation of warm water mass in an idealized layer above the thermocline. - 3.5 Conservation of mass applied to moisture. - 3.5.1 Moisture equation for the atmosphere and surface. - 3.5.2 Sources and sinks of moisture, and latent heat. - 3.5.3 Application: surface melting on an ice sheet. - 3.5.4 Salinity equation for the ocean. - 3.6 Moist processes. - 3.6.1 Saturation. - 3.6.2 Saturation in convection; lifting condensation level. - 3.6.3 The moist adiabat and lapse rate in convective regions. - 3.6.4 Moist convection. - 3.7 Wave processes in the atmosphere and ocean. - 3.7.1 Gravity waves. - 3.7.2 Kelvin waves. - 3.7.3 Rossby waves. - 3.8 Overview. - Notes. - 4. El Niño and year-to-year climate prediction. - 4.1 Recap of El Niño basics. - 4.1.1 The Bjerknes hypothesis. - 4.2 Tropical Pacific climatology. - 4.3 ENSO mechanisms I: extreme phases. - 4.4 Pressure gradients in an idealized upper layer. - 4.4.1 Subsurface temperature anomalies in an idealized upper layer. - 4.5 Transition into the 1997-98 El Niño. - 4.5.1 Subsurface temperature measurements. - 4.5.2 Subsurface temperature anomalies during the onset of El Niño. - 4.5.3 Subsurface temperature anomalies during the transition to La Niña. - 4.6 El Niño mechanisms II: dynamics of transition phases. - 4.6.1 Equatorial jets and the Kelvin wave. - 4.6.2 The Kelvin wave speed. - 4.6.3 What sets the width of the Kelvin wave and equatorial jet?. - 4.6.4 Response of the ocean to a wind anomaly. - 4.6.5 The delayed oscillator model and the recharge oscillator model. - 4.6.6 ENSO transition mechanism in brief. - 4.7 El Niño prediction. - 4.7.1 Limits to skill in ENSO forecasts. - 4.8 El Niño remote impacts: teleconnections. - 4.9 Other interannual climate phenomena. - 4.9.1 Hurricane season forecasts. - 4.9.2 Sahel drought. - 4.9.3 North Atlantic oscillation and annular modes. - Notes. - 5. Climate models. - 5.1 Constructing a climate model. - 5.1.1 An atmospheric model. - 5.1.2 Treatment of sub-grid-scale processes. - 5.1.3 Resolution and computational cost. - 5.1.4 An ocean model and ocean-atmosphere coupling. - 5.1.5 Land surface, snow, ice and vegetation. - 5.1.6 Summary of principal climate model equations. - 5.1.7 Climate system modeling. - 5.2 Numerical representation of atmospheric and oceanic equations. - 5.2.1 Finite-difference versus spectral models. - 5.2.2 Time-stepping and numerical stability. - 5.2.3 Staggered grids and other grids. - 5.2.4 Parallel computer architecture. - 5.3 Parameterization of small-scale processes. - 5.3.1 Mixing and surface fluxes. - 5.3.2 Dry convection. - 5.3.3 Moist convection. - 5.3.4 Land surface processes and soil moisture. - 5.3.5 Sea ice and snow. - 5.4 The hierarchy of climate models. - 5.5 Climate simulations and climate drift. - 5.6 Evaluation of climate model simulations for present-day climate. - 5.6.1 Atmospheric model climatology from specified SST. - 5.6.2 Climate model simulation of climatology. - 5.6.3 Simulation of ENSO response. - Notes. - 6. The greenhouse effect and climate feedbacks. - 6.1 The greenhouse effect in Earth's current climate. - 6.1.1 Global energy balance. - 6.1.2 A global-average energy balance model with a one-layer atmosphere. - 6.1.3 Infrared emissions from a layer. - 6.1.4 The greenhouse effect: example with a completely IR-absorbing atmosphere. - 6.1.5 The greenhouse effect in a one-layer atmosphere, global-average model. - 6.1.6 Temperatures from the one-layer energy balance model. - 6.2 Global warming I: example in the global-average energy balance model. - 6.2.1 Increases in the basic greenhouse effect. - 6.2.2 Climate feedback parameter in the one-layer global-average model. - 6.3 Climate feedbacks. - 6.3.1 Climate feedback parameter. - 6.3.2 Contributions of climate feedbacks to global-average temperature response. - 6.3.3 Climate sensitivity. - 6.4 The water vapor feedback. - 6.5 Snow/ice feedback. - 6.6 Cloud feedbacks. - 6.7 Other feedbacks in the physical climate system. - 6.7.1 Stratospheric cooling. - 6.7.2 Lapse rate feedback. - 6.8 Climate response time in transient climate change. - 6.8.1 Transient climate change versus equilibrium response experiments. - 6.8.2 A doubled-CO2 equilibrium response experiment. - 6.8.3 The role of the oceans in slowing warming. - 6.8.4 Climate sensitivity in transient climate change. - Notes. - 7. Climate model scenarios for global warming. - 7.1 Greenhouse gases, aerosols and other climate forcings. - 7.1.1 Scenarios, forcings and feedbacks. - 7.1.2 Forcing by sulfate aerosols. - 7.1.3 Commonly used scenarios. - 7.2 Global-average response to greenhouse warming scenarios. - 7.3 Spatial patterns of warming for time-dependent scenarios. - 7.3.1 Comparing projections of different climate models. - 7.3.2 Multi-model ensemble averages. - 7.3.3 Polar amplification of warming. - 7.3.4 Summary of spatial patterns of the response. - 7.4 Ice, sea level, extreme events. - 7.4.1 Sea ice and snow. - 7.4.2 Land ice. - 7.4.3 Extreme events. - 7.5 Summary: the best-estimate prognosis. - 7.6 Climate change observed to date. - 7.6.1 Temperature trends and natural variability: scale dependence. - 7.6.2 Is the observed trend consistent with natural variability or anthropogenic forcing?. - 7.6.3 Sea ice, land ice, ocean heat storage and sea level rise. - 7.7 Emissions