ALBERT

Description: In coupled human-environment systems where well established and proven general theories are often lacking cluster analysis provides the possibility to discover regularities – a first step in empirically based theory building. The aim of this report is to share the experiences and knowledge on cluster analysis we gained in several applications in this realm helping to avoid typical problems and pitfalls. In our description of issues and methods we will highlight well-known main-stream methods as well as promising new developments, referring to pertinent literature for further information, thus offering also some potential new insights for the more experienced. The following aspects are discussed in detail: data-selection and pre-treatment, selection of a distance measure in the data space, selection of clustering method, performing clustering (parameterizing the algorithm(s), determining the number of clusters etc.) and the interpretation and evaluation of results. We link our description – as far as tools for performing the analysis are concerned - to the R software environment and its associated cluster analysis packages. We have used this public domain software, together with own tailor-made extensions, documented in the appendix.

Description: A methodology to assess future development in patterns of vulnerability is presented which can support the assessment of global policies with regard to their impacts on specific vulnerabilities on the regional or local scale. Patterns of vulnerability, formalized by vulnerability profiles (e.g. for the livelihoods of dryland smallholder farmers) were investigated under different consistent indicator scenarios reflecting different global policies. After unfolding several principal possibilities to do such an analysis of temporal change in vulnerability patterns we could conclude that the concept of “Clusters of Change” (CoCs) is the most straight forward and promising approach. The main arguments are that each interpretation has necessarily to consider both, the starting situation and it’s change over time (”poor and heavily improving”, ”rich and stagnating” etc.). This implies that we are looking for patterns which represent typical combinations of present states AND expected future changes. An application of the CoC-concept to the drylands vulnerability patterns considering the indicator set for the present situation and the same indicator set for 2050 under a baseline scenario was performed as a test. Comparison of the present vulnerability cluster partition with the spatial distribution of the CoCs revealed that most of these clusters are separated into an improving and a deteriorating part which shows where winners and losers of the baseline scenario are – an interesting result which illustrates the appropriateness of the CoC – method. To explore the potential of CoCs for the dryland vulnerability we applied the method to two different sets of scenarios until 2050: a baseline vs. Climate policy scenario (OECD, 2012) and a ”policy first” scenario vs. ”security first” scenario (UNEP, 2007). The first one serves as an example for a policy assessment while the second compares the vulnerability consequences of two scenarios based on different story-lines of further global development. The main conclusion to be drawn from these calculations is that the CoCs are rather insensitive with regard to the small differences between the scenarios. Regarding the first set of scenarios the relatively short time horizon of relevant influences of climate policies on climate change impacts and several indicators which are not influenced at all generate only a very small difference. The only significant change in the resulting vulnerability profiles was in the values of change in water scarcity: it was lower for all profiles in the climate policy case. The second set of scenarios is not directly related to policy decisions but to different global story-lines which deviate stronger. This resulted in an increasing cluster number from 4 (policy first) to 5 (security first) clusters, about 20% of the pixels changing cluster membership, 3 clusters showing the same spatial extent for both scenarios but the 4th cluster (“policy first”) “losing” India which generates a separate cluster in the “security first” scenario. This allows for the interpretation that a further development according to the “security first”-storyline compared to the “policy first”-storyline would make a difference particularly for India. Closer inspection of the respective profile shows a qualitatively different situation indicating increased vulnerability compared to the “policy first” scenario where India shares one cluster with e.g., Northern Africa.

Description: While deforestation represents an obvious ecosystem change, forest degradation is often more difficult to discern or quantify, but it impacts anumber of ecosystem functions which are vital for biodiversity and climate feedbacks. In the Brazilian Amazon, land-use changes increasefire occurrence, especially in fragmented forests close to managed land. We used remote sensing imagery to estimate the extent and impact of forest fires in degraded tropical rain-forest in the Brazilian Legal Amazon between 2007 and 2010and examinedland-use establishing in degraded areas. The trends in degraded area vs. burned area were different. Even though degradation increased one year after a high fire year, there wasnospatialoverlap, which pointsto other causes for degradation. Up to 11% of the degraded area was burned in the same year, playing escaping fires from managed and deforested lands a significant role in degradation by fire. Eighty-fourpercent of 2007s degraded area remained forest one year later, whereas the rest was identified as deforestation, secondary vegetation or pasture.Three years after degradation, 80% remained forest, the proportion of deforested area decreased and areas in regeneration after being deforested increased. Monitoring of forest degradation across tropical forests is critical for developing land management policies and for carbon stocks/emissions estimation.

Description: ‘Transgovernance: Advancing Sustainability Governance’ analyses what implications recent and ongoing changes in the relations between politics, science and media – together characterized as the emergence of a knowledge democracy – may have for governance for sustainable development, on global and other levels of societal decision making, and vice versa: How can the discussion on sustainable development contribute to a knowledge democracy? How can concepts such as second modernity, reflexivity, configuration theory, (meta)governance theory and cultural theory contribute to a ‘transgovernance’ approach which goes beyond mainstream sustainability governance? This volume presents contributions from various angles: international relations, governance and metagovernance theory, (environmental) economics and innovation science. It offers challenging insights regarding institutions and transformation processes, and into the paradigms behind contemporary sustainability governance. This book gives the sustainability governance debate a new context. It transforms classical questions into new options for societal decision making and identifies starting points and strategies aimed at effective governance of transitions to sustainability.

Description: The concept of boundary work has been put forward as an analytical approach towards the study of interactions between science and policy. While the concept has been useful as a case-study approach, there are several weaknesses and constraints when using the concept in a more systemic analysis of the interactions between knowledge production and sustainable development decision-making at the international level, such as its inability to capture the diversity of institutions involved in such boundary work. Another inability involves a lack of conceptualisation of the impacts of the specific conditions of intergovernmental decision-making, such as rules for representation and the mode of negotiation. This chapter suggests complementing the concept of boundary work with a configuration approach based on a two-dimensional conceptualisation of the boundary space in international decision-making that allows the positioning of institutions with regard to their degree of politicisation and their position in terms of national and regional representation. Such an approach could be a useful guide in the further conceptualisation and application of the boundary concept.

Description: Hydrothermal carbonization (HTC) is an aqueous-phase route to produce carbon materials using biomass or biomass-derived precursors. In this paper, a comprehensive physicochemical and textural characterization of HTC materials obtained using four different precursors, namely, xylose, glucose, sucrose, and starch, is presented. The development of porosity in the prepared HTC materials as a function of thermal treatment (under an inert atmosphere) was specifically monitored using N2 and CO2 sorption analysis. The events taking place during the thermal treatment process were studied by a combined thermogravimetric/infrared (TGA-IR) measurement. Interestingly, these inexpensive biomass-derived carbon materials show good selectivity for CO2 adsorption over N2 (CO2/N2 selectivity of 20 at 273 K, 1 bar and 1:1 gas composition). Furthermore, the elemental composition, morphologies, degree of structural order, surface charge, and functional groups are also investigated.

Description: The recognition of soils and their functions by the public and, in particular, the planning community isgenerally poor. However, conversion of soils to urban uses is occurring at an unprecedented rate dueto an increasing share of the population living in urban areas and changing lifestyles. Urban planners,developers and planning agencies allocate urban lands to varying uses but land use decisions aregenerally not based on soil information as urban growth is managed predominantly for economicdevelopment. However, urban areas must also deal with challenges such as demographic change,urban densification, climate change and infrastructure provision. Thus, managing urban sustainabilityhas to include ecological aside economic, cultural, and political dimensions. Urban developmentneeds to be managed to minimize negative impacts and maximize environmental quality. Policydecisions towards maximizing short-term economic benefits must be balanced by decisions towardssustainable use and management of urban soils as urban land use has long-term consequences. Therecognition of soils by the planning community can particularly be improved by highlighting the valueof urban soil functions for the well-being of urban dwellers. This approach was recommended at thedialogue session ’Urbanization: Challenges to Soil Management‘ during the first Global Soil Week2012 in Berlin, Germany. Further suggestions how to raise the awareness about urban soils and howto deal with challenges regarding their management will be presented.

Description: Temporal and spatial patterns in eastern North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures (SST) were reconstructed for marine isotope stage (MIS) 11c using a submeridional transect of five sediment cores. The SST reconstructions are based on planktic foraminiferal abundances and alkenone indices, and are supported by benthic and planktic stable isotope measurements, as well as by ice-rafted debris content in polar and middle latitudes. Additionally, the larger-scale dynamics of the precipitation regime over northern Africa and the western Mediterranean region was evaluated from iron concentrations in marine sediments off NW Africa and planktic δ 13C in combination with analysis of planktic foraminiferal abundances down to the species level in the Mediterranean Sea. Compared to the modern situation, it is revealed that during entire MIS 11c sensu stricto (ss), i.e., between 420 and 398ka according to our age models, a cold SST anomaly in the Nordic seas co-existed with a warm SST anomaly in the middle latitudes and the subtropics, resulting in steeper meridional SST gradients than during the Holocene. Such a SST pattern correlates well with a prevalence of a negative mode of the modern North Atlantic Oscillation. We suggest that our scenario might partly explain the longer duration of wet conditions in the northern Africa during MIS 11c compared to the Holocene.