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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2024-05-29
    Description: Many physical, biological, and social systems exhibit emergent properties arising from their components’ interactions (cells). In this study, we systematically treat every-pair interactions (a) that exhibit power-law dependence on the Euclidean distance and (b) act in structures that can be characterized using fractal geometry. It can represent the two-body interaction potential, the heat flux between two parts of a structure, friendship strength between two people, etc.. We analytically derive the average intensity of influence that one cell has on the others or, conversely, receives from them. This quantity is referred to as the mean interaction field of the cells, and we find that (i) in a long-range interaction regime, the mean interaction field increases following a power-law with the size of the system, (ii) in a short-range interaction regime, the field saturates, and (iii) in the intermediate range it follows a logarithmic behavior. To validate our analytical solution, we perform numerical simulations. For long-range interactions, the theoretical calculations align closely with the numerical results. However, for short-range interactions, we observe that discreteness significantly impacts the continuum approximation used in the derivation, leading to incorrect asymptotic behavior in this regime. To address this issue, we propose an expansion that substantially improves the accuracy of the analytical expression. We discuss applications of the every-pair interactions system proposed, and one of them is to explore a framework for estimating the fractal dimension of unknown structures. This approach offers an alternative to established methods such as box-counting or sandbox methods. Overall, we believe that our analytical work will have broad applicability in systems where every-pair interactions play a role.
    Language: English
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2024-05-29
    Description: The article evidences to what extent rights-based climate litigation is applied as a strategy to enhance the recognition and protection of climate-induced migrants. Adopting a deduc- tive approach and desk review, the study, illustrates how climate-induced migration has been addressed by International Human Rights Law, with some attention also paid to the growing application of the right to a safe climate and climate justice. The study highlights the duties of both States and private actors in tackling the emerging climate crisis under the human rights agenda. Relevant responsibilities are framed in particular within the scope of rights-based litiga- tion dealing with the topic. We present an analysis of litigation linked to climate-induced migration that was filed before distinct international, regional, and national jurisdictions and, in doing so, propose a chronology of cases—structured in three generations—of how population movements as a result of climate change have been discussed by judicial means. The first generation relates to cases that consider the issue from the perspective of protection—in both national, regional, and international jurisdictions. The second generation emerges within general climate litigation claims, involving commitments linked to the climate agenda. In addition to raising (forced) pop- ulation movements as one of the expected impacts of climate change, such cases frequently call upon a rights-based approach. The third generation encompasses rights-based cases cen- tred on climate-induced migrants per se. The strengths and limitations of rights-based litigation to respond to the topic are finally highlighted: we conclude that litigation remains a blunt but not unpromising tool to respond to climate-induced migration. Generic references to the risk of (forced) population movements largely prevail; nevertheless, strategic rights-based litigation can facilitate the visibility of climate-induced migrants to the international community, fostering the development of legal solutions in the longer term.
    Language: English
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2024-05-29
    Description: Process-based forest models combine biological, physical, and chemical process understanding to simulate forest dynamics as an emergent property of the system. As such, they are valuable tools to investigate the effects of climate change on forest ecosystems. Specifically, they allow testing of hypotheses regarding long-term ecosystem dynamics and provide means to assess the impacts of climate scenarios on future forest development. As a consequence, numerous local-scale simulation studies have been conducted over the past decades to assess the impacts of climate change on forests. These studies apply the best available models tailored to local conditions, parameterized and evaluated by local experts. However, this treasure trove of knowledge on climate change responses remains underexplored to date, as a consistent and harmonized dataset of local model simulations is missing. Here, our objectives were (i) to compile existing local simulations on forest development under climate change in Europe in a common database, (ii) to harmonize them to a common suite of output variables, and (iii) to provide a standardized vector of auxiliary environmental variables for each simulated location to aid subsequent investigations. Our dataset of European stand- and landscape-level forest simulations contains over 1.1 million simulation runs representing 135 million simulation years for more than 13,000 unique locations spread across Europe. The data were harmonized to consistently describe forest development in terms of stand structure (dominant height), composition (dominant species, admixed species), and functioning (leaf area index). Auxiliary variables provided include consistent daily climate information (temperature, precipitation, radiation, vapor pressure deficit) as well as information on local site conditions (soil depth, soil physical properties, soil water holding capacity, plant-available nitrogen). The present dataset facilitates analyses across models and locations, with the aim to better harness the valuable information contained in local simulations for large-scale policy support, and for fostering a deeper understanding of the effects of climate change on forest ecosystems in Europe.
    Language: English
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2024-05-29
    Description: The Texas power grid on the Gulf Coast of the United States is frequently hit by tropical cyclones (TCs) causing widespread power outages, a risk that is expected to substantially increase under global warming. Here we introduce a new approach that combines a probabilistic line failure model with a network model of the Texas grid to simulate the spatio-temporal co-evolution of wind-induced failures of high-voltage transmission lines and the resulting cascading power outages from seven major historical TCs. The approach allows reproducing observed supply failures. In addition, compared to existing static approaches, it provides a notable advantage in identifying critical lines whose failure can trigger large supply shortages. We show that hardening only 1% of total lines can reduce the likelihood of the most destructive type of outage by a factor of between 5 and 20. The proposed modelling approach could represent a so far missing tool for identifying effective options to strengthen power grids against future TC strikes, even under limited knowledge.
    Language: English
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2024-05-29
    Description: Media inform the public, thereby influencing societal debates and political decisions. Despite climate change’s importance, drivers of media attention to climate change remain differently understood. Here we assess how different sociopolitical and extreme weather events affect climate change media coverage, both immediately and in the weeks following the event. To this end, we construct a data set of over 90,000 climate change articles published in nine major German newspapers over the past three decades and apply fixed effects panel regressions to control for confounders. We find that United Nations Climate Change Conferences affect coverage most strongly and most persistently. Climate protests incite climate coverage that extends well beyond the reporting on the event itself, whereas many articles on weather extremes do not mention climate change. The influence of all events has risen over time, increasing the media prominence of climate change.
    Language: English
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2024-05-29
    Description: The Greenland Ice Sheet and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation are considered tipping elements in the climate system, where global warming exceeding critical threshold levels in forcing can lead to large-scale and nonlinear reductions in ice volume and overturning strength, respectively. The positive-negative feedback loop governing their interaction (with a destabilizing effect on the AMOC due to ice loss and subsequent freshwater flux into the North Atlantic as well as a stabilizing effect of a net-cooling around Greenland with an AMOC weakening) may determine the long-term stability of both tipping elements. Here we explore the potential dynamic regimes arising from this positive-negative tipping feedback loop in a process-based conceptual model. Under idealized forcing scenarios we identify conditions under which different kinds of tipping cascades can occur: Herein, we distinguish between overshoot tipping cascades (leading to tipping of both GIS and AMOC) and rate-induced tipping cascades (where the AMOC despite not having crossed its own intrinsic tipping point tips nonetheless due to the fast rate of ice loss from Greenland). These different cascades occur within corridors of distinct tipping pathways that are affected by the GIS melting patterns and thus eventually by the imposed forcing and its time scales. Our results suggest that it is not only necessary to avoid breaching the respective critical levels of the environmental drivers for the Greenland Ice Sheet and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, but also to respect safe rates of environmental change to mitigate potential domino effects.
    Language: English
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2024-05-29
    Description: Der vorliegende Kolloquiumsband der ”Blauen Bände“ umfasst 41 Beiträge. Dem diesjährigen Kolloquiumsband wurde ein neues Format hinzugefügt. Der sogenannte 1-Pager bietet die Möglichkeit eines einseitigen Beitrages, bestehend aus einer Zusammenfassung, einer Abbildung und einer Referenz zu weiterführender Information. In der Vergangenheit haben sich immer wieder Diskussionen zur Publikation von wissenschaftlichen Arbeiten in den ”Blauen Bänden“ ergeben. Mit diesem neuen niederschwelligen 1-Pager Format wollen wir alle EMTF Kolloquiums Teilnehmer*innen motivieren, ihren Beitrag in diesem traditionellen Kolloquiumsband sichtbar zu machen. Das ist mit einer vergleichsweise großen Anzahl von Beitr¨agen gut gelungen. In diesem Band sind Extended Abstracts (4), Vortragsfolien (8), Postern (19) sowie der neu eingeführte 1-Pager (10) zusammengefasst. Als weitere Neuerung wurde dem Band erstmalig das Tagungsprogramm als Anhang beigefügt. Wir danken allen Teilnehmern, die mit ihren Beiträgen dazu beitragen, die Breite des Kolloquiums auch in den ”Blauen Bänden“ zu dokumentieren.
    Language: German , English
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2024-05-29
    Description: The geometry and evolution of fluvial systems are thought to be related to surface uplift. In eastern Tibet, rivers exhibit peculiar drainage patterns but how these patterns were established and their connection with the plateau uplift are still under debate. Here, we use detrital zircon U-Pb dating, bedrock (U-Th)/He thermochronometry, topographic analysis and numerical modeling to explore the paleo-drainage pattern of the Dadu and Anning Rivers, eastern Tibet. Our detrital data indicate that the Pliocene sources of sediments to the Anning River are different from the modern ones and they include a source similar to that of the modern Dadu River, implying a paleo-connection between the Dadu and the Anning Rivers and a subsequent cutoff of this connection after the deposition of the Pliocene sediments. Bedrock thermochronometric data along the Dadu River reveal rapid cooling at ∼10 Ma and a possible enhanced cooling at ∼2 Ma, which we interpret as a response to the regional plateau uplift in eastern Tibet and to the Dadu-Anning capture, respectively. Combined with topographic analysis and numerical modeling, our results indicate an Early Pleistocene capture between the Dadu and Anning Rivers, resulting in the changes in the sediment sources of the Anning River, enhanced incision of the Dadu, and the transience of the Dadu River profile. The Dadu-Anning capture is related to the motion along the active sinistral strike-slip Daliangshan fault that locally disrupts the river network. This event does not date the plateau uplift; rather, it indicates how river reorganization can effectively enhance river incision and affect landscape development independently from regional-scale uplift.
    Language: English
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  • 9
    Monograph available for loan
    Monograph available for loan
    Cham : Springer International Publishing | Cham : Springer
    Call number: M 24.95738
    Description / Table of Contents: 1. Contractional theory, continental drift and plate tectonics -- 2 Plate movements and their geometric relationships -- 3. Continental graben structures -- 4. Passive continental margins and abyssal plains -- 5. Mid-ocean ridges -- 6. Hot spots -- 7. Subduction zones, island arcs and active continental margins -- 8. Transform faults -- 9. Terranes -- 10. Early Precambrian plate tectonics -- 11. Plate tectonics and mountain building -- 12. Old orogens -- 13. Young orogens - the Earth's loftiest places.
    Description / Table of Contents: This textbook explains how mountains are formed and why there are old and young mountains. It provides a reconstruction of the Earths paleogeography and shows why the shapes of South America and Africa fit so well together. Furthermore, it explains why the Pacific is surrounded by a ring of volcanos and earthquake-prone areas while the edges of the Atlantic are relatively peaceful. This thoroughly revised textbook edition addresses all these questions and more through the presentation and explanation of the geodynamic processes upon which the theory of continental drift is based and which have led to the concept of plate tectonics. It is a source of information for students of geology, geophysics, geography, geosciences in general, general natural sciences, as well as professionals, and interested layman.
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    Pages: X, 245 Seiten , Illustrationen
    Edition: 2nd ed. 2022.
    ISBN: 978-3-030-88998-2 , 978-3-030-89000-1 , 978-3-030-89001-8
    Series Statement: Springer Textbooks in Earth Sciences, Geography and Environment
    Language: English
    Location: 19
    Branch Library: GFZ Library
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2024-05-28
    Description: The recurrence plot and the recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) are well-established methods for the analysis of data from complex systems. They provide important insights into the nature of the dynamics, periodicity, regime changes, and many more. These methods are used in different fields of research, such as finance, engineering, life, and earth science. To use them, the data have usually to be uniformly sampled, posing difficulties in investigations that provide non-uniformly sampled data, as typical in medical data (e.g., heart-beat based measurements), paleoclimate archives (such as sediment cores or stalagmites), or astrophysics (supernova or pulsar observations). One frequently used solution is interpolation to generate uniform time series. However, this preprocessing step can introduce bias to the RQA measures, particularly those that rely on the diagonal or vertical line structure in the recurrence plot. Using prototypical model systems, we systematically analyze differences in the RQA measure average diagonal line length for data with different sampling and interpolation. For real data, we show that the course of this measure strongly depends on the choice of the sampling rate for interpolation. Furthermore, we suggest a correction scheme, which is capable of correcting the bias introduced by the prepossessing step if the interpolation ratio is an integer.
    Language: English
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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2024-05-28
    Description: We present a modular framework for generating synthetic power grids that consider the heterogeneity of real power grid dynamics but remain simple and tractable. This enables the generation of large sets of synthetic grids for a wide range of applications. For the first time, our synthetic model also includes the major drivers of fluctuations on short-time scales and a set of validators that ensure the resulting system dynamics are plausible. The synthetic grids generated are robust and show good synchronization under all evaluated scenarios, as should be expected for realistic power grids. A software package that includes an efficient Julia implementation of the framework is released as a companion to the paper.
    Language: English
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2024-05-28
    Description: To mitigate climate change, the share of renewable energies in power production needs to be increased. Renewables introduce new challenges to power grids regarding the dynamic stability due to decentralization, reduced inertia, and volatility in production. Since dynamic stability simulations are intractable and exceedingly expensive for large grids, graph neural networks (GNNs) are a promising method to reduce the computational effort of analyzing the dynamic stability of power grids. As a testbed for GNN models, we generate new, large datasets of dynamic stability of synthetic power grids and provide them as an open-source resource to the research community. We find that GNNs are surprisingly effective at predicting the highly non-linear targets from topological information only. For the first time, performance that is suitable for practical use cases is achieved. Furthermore, we demonstrate the ability of these models to accurately identify particular vulnerable nodes in power grids, so-called troublemakers. Last, we find that GNNs trained on small grids generate accurate predictions on a large synthetic model of the Texan power grid, which illustrates the potential for real-world applications.
    Language: English
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  • 13
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    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
    Publication Date: 2024-05-28
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/report
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2024-05-28
    Description: The global steel sector is responsible for 7% of global greenhouse gas emissions, highlighting the need for significant changes in production practices and the adoption of low-carbon breakthrough technologies to achieve net-zero emissions. This study was conducted to explore positive tipping points at the company level, taking into account socio-political, economic and industry pressures that initiate the tipping process. The study operationalizes tipping points using the Triple Embededdness Framework, which incorporates indicators from the socio-political and economic environment, as well as the industry regime of companies. An analysis is performed of secondary data from four steel companies: BlueScope (Australia), POSCO (South Korea), voestalpine (Austria), and U.S. Steel (USA). The findings indicate that voestalpine is on the verge of reaching a positive tipping point, and POSCO is also on a promising track. In contrast, both BlueScope and U.S. Steel are lagging behind. In the tipping process, national policies play a critical role in expediting the transition to low-carbon steel production for frontrunners, while global climate policy has a greater leverage by influencing producers who operate in a less stringent national policy context. Additionally, the customer demand for low-carbon steel serves as a driving force for innovation and can incentivize steelmakers to produce low-carbon products.
    Language: English
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2024-05-28
    Description: Increasing interconnectedness, along with the effects of climate change and other global risk drivers, has led to mounting systemic risks in the complex systems that characterize our world. Systemic risks, with their cascading impacts and long-term sustainability concerns, necessitate transformative approaches to manage their effects across system scales and dimensions. To date, however, an “operationalization gap” impedes translating between propositions for transformative change and policy options for addressing systemic risk. Here, we propose combining systemic risk analyses with local approaches, prominently including knowledge co-production, to achieve a more comprehensive understanding of complex systems. This combined approach can support stakeholders in designing transformative risk management and adaptation interventions that balance individual and higher-order interactions, incorporate diverse viewpoints, and thus manage systemic risks and leverage transformation potential more effectively. Furthermore, we suggest that a risk-layering approach can help differentiate, prioritize, and orchestrate these options for incremental and transformative changes.
    Language: English
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  • 16
    Publication Date: 2024-05-28
    Description: Pyrite is a ubiquitous sulfide mineral found in diverse geological settings and holds great significance in the formation of Au deposits as well as the safe utilization of groundwater due to its remarkable ability to incorporate substantial amounts of As. However, despite its importance, there remains a dearth of fundamental data on the partitioning of As between pyrite and fluid, which is key for accurately modeling the As distribution in these environments. Here, we present new insights into the partitioning behavior of As between pyrite and fluid at conditions that mimic natural fluid systems. Pyrite was synthesized by replacement of natural siderite in hydrothermal experiments at 200 °C and pH 5 applying a wide range of fluid As concentrations, spanning from 0.001 to 100 µg/g. The As distribution and concentration in synthetic pyrite was analyzed by quantitative LA-ICP-MS mapping providing a high spatial resolution and sensitivity at 2–3 µm image pixel size at a detection limit of ∼1 µg/g at the single pixel scale. Pyrite-fluid partitioning coefficients (DAs(py/fluid)) between synthetic pyrite and experimental fluid agree with previously published data for high fluid As concentrations of 1 µg/g to 100 µg/g (DAs 〈 2000). However, at low As concentrations in the experimental fluid (〈1 µg/g), a steep increase in the DAs(py/fluid) values of up to ∼30,000 was detected, demonstrating even stronger As partitioning into pyrite. This is confirmed by the analyses of natural pyrite that precipitated from As-poor fluids (0.3–0.4 ng/g) within a deep anoxic aquifer in SE Sweden. The discovery holds significant implications for the mobility and scavenging of As, which in turn is important for understanding the formation and fingerprinting of mineral deposits as well as for the secure utilization of groundwater resources.
    Language: English
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2024-05-28
    Description: Important features of Sn mineralization are the heterogeneous geographic distribution and frequent regional separation from W mineralization in spite some similarities of Sn and W behavior during magmatic processes. Major Sn and W mineralization is often spatially associated with peraluminous granites, which are derived from partial melting of metasediments. Several concepts have been suggested to explain those features, such as a weathering-related Sn-enriched source, Sn redistribution between melts and restite during protolith melting, and extensive fractional crystallization. We demonstrate the importance of protolith composition for the formation of Sn (and W) granites by using a comprehensive bulk-rock composition dataset from Precambrian metasediments of the South China Sn-W province and employing a thermodynamic modeling approach. We used four compositional proxies for phase equilibria calculations, which are the metasediments of the Mengdong, Sibao, Pingbian, and Shuangqiaoshan Groups. It is well documented that those Precambrian metasediments are important protoliths of Sn granites in South China. We present quantitative evaluation of the control of protolith composition in the generation of Sn-enriched granitic melts using South China as example, but our conclusions may also be applicable to worldwide Sn–enriched granites. Our results indicate that the protolith major-element geochemistry controls the anatectic reactions and melt productivity at specific melting conditions, and consequently the partitioning behavior of Sn. Further, pre-enrichment of Sn is crucial to the fertility of granitic melt and may be a prerequisite, particularly for the formation of giant Sn deposits. We propose that the heterogeneous distribution of favorable source rocks is one of the important factors that control the spatial distribution of major Sn (and W) districts in South China and other regions worldwide.
    Language: English
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  • 18
    Publication Date: 2024-05-28
    Description: The evolution of topography in forearc regions results from the complex interplay of crustal and mantle processes. The Southern Apennines represent a well‐studied forearc region that experienced several tectonic phases, initially marked by compressional deformation followed by extension and large‐scale uplift. We present a new structural, geomorphic and fluvial analysis of the Pollino Massif and surrounding intermontane basins (Mercure, Campotenese and Castrovillari) to unravel their evolution since the Pliocene. We constrain multiple tectonic transport directions, evolution of the drainage, and magnitude and timing of long‐ term incision following base level falls. Two sets of knickpoints suggest two phases of base level lowering and allow to estimate ∼500 m of long‐term uplift (late Pleistocene), as observed in the Sila Massif. On a smaller spatial scale, the evolution and formation of topographic relief, sedimentation, and opening of intermontane basins is strongly controlled by the recent increase in rock uplift rate and fault activity. At the regional scale, an along‐strike, long‐wavelength uplift pattern from north to south can be explained by progressive lateral slab tearing and inflow of asthenospheric mantle beneath Pollino and Sila, which in turn may have promoted extensional tectonics. The lower uplift of Le Serre Massif may be explained as result of weak plate coupling due to narrowing of the Calabrian slab. The onset of uplift in the Pollino Massif, ranging from 400 to 800 ka, is consistent with that one proposed in the southern Calabrian forearc, suggesting a possible synchronism of uplift, and lateral tearing of the Calabrian slab.
    Language: English
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2024-05-28
    Description: We address the possible link between the age of subducting oceanic lithosphere and growth of elevated cordilleras versus extension-dominated arc regions. Singularity exists in South America: the lowest elevated Andean segments are found in Patagonia where the active Chile Ridge enters the trench. Subduction of active ridge triggers thermal doming, crustal extension and attenuation of former cordilleras. At the Antarctica–South America connection, three active ridge subductions induced the disruption of a former continuous cordillera during the opening of Drake Passage. Active ridge subduction induces lithosphere thermal erosion and related crustal extension in the upper plate. Evolution of regions worldwide experiencing ridge subduction confirms this hypothesis.
    Language: English
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  • 20
    Publication Date: 2024-05-27
    Description: Scheelite (CaWO4) is an economically important W mineral in skarns that form when magmatic fluids exsolved from a granitic intrusion react with carbonate wall rocks. In the Fujiashan W skarn deposit, scheelite formed during four stages of the hydrothermal skarn development. We present cathodoluminescence (CL) images and in situ trace element and Sr-O isotope data of scheelite from these four stages, i.e., scheelite in prograde and retrograde skarn, quartz-sulfide veins, and late calcite replacements. Scheelite from prograde skarn and quartz sulfide veins are homogeneous and show oscillatory zoning textures in CL images, whereas scheelite from retrograde skarn and late carbonate stages display dissolution-reprecipitation and patchy textures. The brightness of CL textures decreases with a higher substitution of Mo. Molybdenum-rich scheelite (up to 2.1 wt%) is characterized by relatively high contents of Nb and Ta (up to 156 and 0.9 ppm, respectively), positive Eu anomalies, high-δ18O values (5.2 to 5.9‰), and relatively low-87Sr/86Sr values (0.70661 to 0.70727), and has grown in a system with a continuous supply of magmatic fluid. Molybdenum-poor scheelite (0.2 wt%) has low contents of Nb and Ta, negative Eu anomalies, low-δ18O values (4.2 to 4.3‰), and relatively high-87Sr/86Sr ratios (0.70748 to 0.70804). This type of scheelite formed in a system with a restricted flow of magmatic fluid during scheelite precipitation became increasingly depleted in elements that substitute into scheelite. The continued reaction of the magmatic fluid with the wall rocks and the precipitation of minerals from the fluid resulted in a systematic change of the δ18O and 87Sr/86Sr ratios. Chemical and isotopic variations in scheelite may reflect the pulsed flow of a magmatic fluid and do not require the involvement of different fluids or contrasting redox conditions.
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  • 21
    Publication Date: 2024-05-27
    Description: To enhance the EU's economic autonomy, feasible options for local sourcing of critical raw materials that would allow for shorter supply routes along with ethical and responsible value chains are under contemplation. Social acceptance of mining in Europe is, however, low, and the establishment of new mining sites faces strong public opposition. Therefore, innovative solutions for the production of primary raw materials need to be developed. A new idea for raw material extraction is the extraction of essential elements from geothermal fluids. Deep geothermal fluids, increasingly used for energy production, often contain high concen-trations of dissolved ions and gases in commercially interesting concentrations. The EU-funded project CRM-geothermal aims to develop new technologies to extract these highly relevant elements, including helium, during geothermal production cycles. In this way, an environmentally friendly and socially acceptable exploration and exploitation method could be deployed. One aim of the CRM-geothermal project is to gain an overview of the actual quantities of critical raw materials in various geothermal fluids in Europe by taking and analyzing fluid samples. In Turkey for instance, classical high enthalpy (volcanic) systems exist, which are representative for many geothermal areas worldwide. The sites are located at the edges of tectonic plates and close to areas undergoing volcanic activity. The brines are mixed with seawater and circulate in the deeper crust. The data publication contains analyses results of three gas samples from Tuzla, two samples from Seferihisar geothermal power plant and one sample from the Dikili geothermal field in Turkey, taken in 2023 as part of the CRM-geothermal project.
    Language: English
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  • 22
    Publication Date: 2024-05-27
    Description: Age-progressive seamount tracks generated by lithospheric motion over a stationary mantle plume have long been used to reconstruct absolute plate motion (APM) models. However, the basis of these models requires the plumes to move significantly slower than the overriding lithosphere. When a plume interacts with a convergent or divergent plate boundary, it is often deflected within the strong local mantle flow fields associated with such regimes. Here, we examined the age progression and geometry of the Samoa hotspot track, focusing on lava flow samples dredged from the deep flanks of seamounts in order to best reconstruct when a given seamount was overlying the mantle plume (i.e., during the shield-building stage). The Samoan seamounts display an apparent local plate velocity of 7.8 cm/yr from 0 to 9 Ma, 11.1 cm/yr from 9 to 14 Ma, and 5.6 cm/yr from 14 to 24 Ma. Current fixed and mobile hotspot Pacific APM models cannot reproduce the geometry of the Samoa seamount track if a long-term fixed hotspot location, currently beneath the active Vailulu’u Seamount, is assumed. Rather, reconstruction of the eruptive locations of the Samoan seamounts using APM models indicates that the surface expression of the plume migrated ~2° northward in the Pliocene. Large-scale mantle flow beneath the Pacific Ocean Basin cannot explain this plume migration. Instead, the best explanation is that toroidal flow fields—generated by westward migration of the Tonga Trench and associated slab rollback—have deflected the conduit northward over the past 2–3 m.y. These observations provide novel constraints on the ways in which plume-trench interactions can alter hotspot track geometries.
    Language: English
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  • 23
    Publication Date: 2024-05-27
    Description: The Martian surface and shallow subsurface lacks stable liquid water, yet hygroscopic salts in the regolith may enable the transient formation of liquid brines. This study investigated the combined impact of water scarcity, UV exposure, and regolith depth on microbial survival under Marslike environmental conditions. Both vegetative cells of Debaryomyces hansenii and Planococcus halocryophilus, alongside with spores of Aspergillus niger, were exposed to an experimental chamber simulating Martian environmental conditions (constant temperatures of about − 11 °C, low pressure of approximately 6 mbar, a CO2 atmosphere, and 2 h of daily UV irradiation). We evaluated colonyforming units (CFU) and water content at three different regolith depths before and after exposure periods of 3 and 7 days, respectively. Each organism was tested under three conditions: one without the addition of salts to the regolith, one containing sodium chlorate, and one with sodium perchlorate. Our results reveal that the residual water content after the exposure experiments increased with regolith depth, along with the organism survival rates in chlorate-containing and salt-free samples. The survival rates of the three organisms in perchlorate-containing regolith were consistently lower for all organisms and depths compared to chlorate, with the most significant difference being observed at a depth of 10–12 cm, which corresponds to the depth with the highest residual water content. The postulated reason for this is an increase in the salt concentration at this depth due to the freezing of water, showing that for these organisms, perchlorate brines are more toxic than chlorate brines under the experimental conditions. This underscores the significance of chlorate salts when considering the habitability of Martian environments.
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  • 24
    Publication Date: 2024-05-27
    Description: More than 20 yr of measurement data of the gravity missions GRACE (Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment) and GRACE-FO (GRACE-Follow-On) allow detailed investigations of long-term trends in continental terrestrial water storage (TWS). However, the spatial resolution of conventional GRACE/GRACE-FO data products is limited to a few hundred kilometres which restrains from investigating hydrological trends at smaller spatial scales. In this study GRACE and GRACE-FO data have been used to calculate TWS trends with maximized spatial resolution. Conventionally, GRACE/GRACE-FO is presented as a series of either unconstrained gravity fields post-processed with spatial low pass filters or constrained inversions commonly known as Mascon products. This paper demonstrates that both approaches to suppress spatially correlated noise are mathematically equivalent. Moreover, we demonstrate that readily inverting all available sensor data from GRACE/GRACE-FO for a single TWS trend map, together with annual variations and a mean gravity field, provides additional spatial detail not accessible from the standard products. The variable trade-off between spatial and temporal resolution as a unique feature of satellite gravimetry allows for gravity products that are tailored towards specific geophysical applications. We show additional signal content in terms of long-term water storage trends for four dedicated examples (Lake Victoria, Northwest India, Bugachany Reservoir and High Plains Aquifer) for which external information from other remote sensing instruments corroborates the enhanced spatial resolution of the new mean-field trend product.
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  • 25
    Publication Date: 2024-05-27
    Description: The deepest geoid low globally with respect to hydrostatic equilibrium is in the Ross Sea area. Nearby in West Antarctica is a residual topography high. Both are in a region with thin lithosphere, where a mantle plume has been suggested. Hence upper mantle viscosity could be regionally reduced, allowing for faster rebound than elsewhere upon melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, one of the global climate system’s tipping elements. To study possible causes of the geoid low / topography high combination, we compute the effects of disk-shaped density anomalies. With -1% density anomaly and a global average radial viscosity structure, geoid low and topography high can be explained with disk radius about 10° and depth range ~150-650 km. Alternatively, there may be two separate disks somewhat laterally displaced, one just below the lithosphere and mainly causing a dynamic topography high and one below the transition zone causing the geoid low. If viscosity in the uppermost mantle is reduced by a factor 10 (from 50 to 350 km depth) to 100 (from 100 to 220 km), one shallow disk in the depth range 50-350 km would also be sufficient. In order to test the feasibility of such density models, we perform computations of a thermal plume that enters at the base of a cartesian box corresponding to a region in the upper mantle, as well as some whole-mantle thermal plume models, with ASPECT. These plume models have typically a narrow conduit and the plume tends to only become wider as it spreads beneath the lithosphere, typically shallower than ~300 km. These results are most consistent with the shallow disk model with reduced uppermost mantle viscosity, hence providing further support for such low viscosities beneath West Antarctica.
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  • 26
    Publication Date: 2024-05-27
    Description: The large Weilasituo Sn-polymetallic deposit is a recent exploration discovery in the southern Great Xing’an Range, northeast China. The ore cluster area shows horizontal mineralization zoning, from the inner granite body outward, consisting of high-T Sn–W–Li mineralization, middle-T Cu–Zn mineralization and peripheral low-T Pb–Zn–Ag mineralization. However, the intrinsic genetic relationship between Sn-W-Li mineralization and peripheral vein-type Pb–Zn–Ag–Cu mineralization, the formation mechanism and the deep geological background are still insufficiently understood. Here, we use fluid inclusions, trace elements concentrations in quartz and sphalerite, and H–O isotope studies to determine the genetic mechanism and establish a metallogenic model. Fluid inclusion microthermometry and Laser Raman spectroscopic analysis results demonstrates that the aqueous ore-forming fluids evolved from low-medium salinity, medium–high temperature to low salinity, low-medium temperature fluids. Laser Raman spectroscopic analysis shows that CH4 is ubiquitous in fluid inclusions of all ore stages. Early ore fluids have δ18OH2O (v–SMOW) values from + 5.5 to + 6.2‰ and δD values of approximately − 67‰, concordant with a magmatic origin. However, the late ore fluids shifted toward lower δ18OH2O (v–SMOW) (as low as 0.3‰) and δD values (~ − 136‰), suggesting mixing between external fluids derived from the wall rocks and a contribution from meteoric water. Ti-in-quartz thermometry indicates a magmatic crystallization temperature of around 700 °C at a pressure of 1.5 kbar for the magmatic ore stage. Cathodoluminescence (CL) imaging and trace element analysis of quartz from a hydrothermal vug highlight at least three growth episodes that relate to different fluid pulses; each episode begins with CL-bright, Al-Li-rich quartz, and ends with CL-dark quartz with low Al and Li contents. Quartz from Episode 1 formed from early Sn-(Zn)-rich fluids which were likely derived from the quartz porphyry. Quartz from episodes 2 and 3 formed from Zn-(Sn)-Cu-rich fluid. The early magmatic fluid is characterized by low fS2. The SO2 produced by magma degassing reacted with heated water to form SO42−, causing the shift from low fS2 to high fS2. The SO42− generated was converted to S2– by mixing with CH4-rich, Fe and Zn-bearing external fluid which led to late-stage alteration and dissolution of micas in vein walls, thus promoting crystallization of pyrrhotite, Fe-rich sphalerite and chalcopyrite and inhibiting the precipitation of anhydrite. This study shows that ore formation encompassed multiple episodes involving steadily evolved fluids, and that the addition of external fluids plays an important role in the formation of the later Cu–Zn and Ag–Pb–Zn mineralization in the Weilasituo ore district.
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  • 27
    Publication Date: 2024-05-24
    Description: Social-ecological transformation has become an important concept in the face of profound planetary crises (loss of biodiversity, climate crisis). Recently, the needs for social scientific transformation research have become more clearly defined. We reflect on the role of the social sciences and the humanities in democratically shaping social transformation in interaction with other sectors of society. Finally, we sketch three examples that illustrate the kind of new methodological and institutional approaches to be pursued.
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  • 28
    Publication Date: 2024-05-24
    Description: Some forty years ago, the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea 1982 (UNCLOS) created an unusual regime for states to collectively manage common natural resources on the international seabed beyond national jurisdiction (known as the Area) through the International Seabed Authority (ISA). In the intervening years, scientists have increasingly been warning about the serious environmental risks of mining seabed minerals. At this pivotal point in time, when states are negotiating whether or not to allow seabed mining, this essay explores the risk of undermining by mining, that is, contravening international marine environmental law and the obligations and responsibilities of states thereunder by allowing commercial mining activities to commence. We argue that allowing seabed mining in the Area at this juncture, when so much about the deep ocean remains unknown, would risk frustrating a host of measures, achievements, and progress to enhance marine environmental protection, particularly in areas beyond national jurisdiction. We begin with an overview of the ISA and its work to date, before discussing potential interactions between seabed mining and marine environmental law and policies, with a particular focus on the new ocean biodiversity agreement. We conclude by urging states to take cognizance of their overarching duty to protect and preserve the marine environment and ensure that all decisions taken with respect to seabed mining are consistent with their obligations and responsibilities under international law.
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  • 29
    Publication Date: 2024-05-24
    Description: Real-world laboratories have become a recognised research format for addressing sustainability challenges. In these transdisciplinary settings, actors from civil society, local government, and academia work together using a transdisciplinary research approach to jointly experiment and learn about sustainability transformations. While these labs are considered to have potential, their impact has not yet been fully measured. Therefore, in our paper we explore the case of the Zukunftsstadt Lüneburg 2030+ process to uncover the impacts that this long-term effort has generated over the past eight years. By examining the process and its design features from three analytical perspectives, we identify emergent impacts in three dimensions: education, governance, and the lab as an actor for sustainability. Based on our case study, we suggest that real-world labs contribute to sustainability on a local level, beyond the intentional experiments, through impacts that emerge over the course of the joint operation of the lab.
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  • 30
    Publication Date: 2024-05-24
    Description: Numerous scientific reports have evidenced the transformation of the earth system due to human activities. These changes – captured under the term ‘Anthropocene’ – require a new perspective on global law and policy. The concept of ‘earth system law’ situates law in an earth system context and offers a new perspective to interrogate the role of law in governing planetary challenges such as climate change. The discourse on earth system law has not yet fully recognised courts as actors that could shape climate governance, while climate litigation discourse has insufficiently considered aspects of earth system law. We posit that courts play an increasingly influential climate governance role and that they need to be recognised as Anthropocene institutions within the earth system law paradigm. Drawing on a set of prominent climate cases, we discuss five inter-related domains that are relevant for earth system law and where the potential influence of courts can be discerned: establishing accountability, redefining power relations, remedying vulnerabilities and injustices, increasing the reach and impact of international climate law and applying climate science to adjudicate legal disputes. We suggest that their innovative work in these domains could provide a basis for positioning courts as planetary climate governance actors.
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  • 31
    Publication Date: 2024-05-24
    Description: Germany, the European Union member state with the largest fiscal space and its leading manufacturer of industrial goods, is pursuing an ambitious hydrogen strategy aiming at establishing itself as a major technology provider and importer of green hydrogen. The success of its hydrogen strategy represents not only a key element in realizing the European vision of climate neutrality but also a central driver of an emerging global hydrogen economy. This article provides a detailed review of German policy, highlighting its prominent international dimension and its implications for the development of a global renewable hydrogen economy. It provides an overview of the strategy's central goals and how these have evolved since the launch of the strategy in 2020. Next, it moves on to provide an overview of the strategy's main areas of intervention and highlights corresponding policy instruments. For this, we draw on a comprehensive assessment of hydrogen policy instruments, which have been systematically analyzed and coded. This was complemented by a detailed analysis of policy documents and information gathered in six interviews with government officials and staff of key implementing agencies. The article places particular emphasis on the strategy's international dimension. While less significant in financial terms than domestic hydrogen-related spending, it represents a defining feature of the German hydrogen strategy, setting it apart from strategies in other major economies. The article closes with a reflection on the key features of the strategy compared to other important countries, identifies gaps of the strategy and discusses important avenues for future research.
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  • 32
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    In:  Review of European, Comparative & International Environmental Law
    Publication Date: 2024-05-24
    Description: In two recent South African cases, Indigenous communities successfully challenged proposed fossil fuel exploration activities by the Shell petroleum company off South Africa's pristine West Coast. In contrast to earlier climate litigation cases in South Africa, the litigants relied specifically on their Indigenous rights and knowledge. In this case note, we highlight the ways in which the two courts engaged with the communities' cultural beliefs and practices as well as their knowledge related to sustainability and how this relates to protecting their livelihoods, cultural practices and identities that are threatened by the proposed activities. We highlight the important role played by Indigenous communities in the climate movement and argue that, in the future, Indigenous and related considerations could provide a strong basis for climate litigation in South Africa and potentially contribute to efforts to protect Indigenous communities against the activities of carbon majors.
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  • 33
    Publication Date: 2024-05-24
    Description: This article presents an enhanced emission module for the PALM model system, which collects discrete emission sources from different emission sectors and assigns them dynamically to the prognostic equations for specific pollutant species as volumetric source terms. Bidirectional lookup between each source location and cell index are maintained through using a hash key approach, while allowing all emission source modules to be conceived, developed and operated in a homogeneous and mutually independent manner. An additional generic emission mode has also been implemented to allow the use of external emission data in simulation runs. Results from benchmark runs indicate a high level of performance and scalability. Subsequently, a module for modelling parametrized emissions from domestic heating is implemented under this framework, using the approach of building energy usage and temperature deficit as a generalized form of heating degree days. An model run has been executed under idealized conditions by considering solely dispersion of PM10 from domestic heating sources. The results demonstrate a strong overall dependence on the strength and clustering of individual sources, diurnal variation in domestic heat usage, as well as the temperature deficit between the ambient and the user-defined target temperature. Vertical transport contributes additionally to a rapid attenuation of daytime PM10. Although urban topology plays a minor role on the pollutant concentrations at ground level, it has a relevant contribution to the vertical pollutant distribution.
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  • 34
    Publication Date: 2024-05-24
    Description: Key message: A decolonial approach is needed to fulfil IASC’s commitment to recognizing that Traditional Knowledge, Indigenous Knowledge and academic scientific knowledge are co-equal and complementary knowledge systems that all can and should inform its work (website ICARP IV, retrieved October 2023). This document summarizes key recommendations for actions regarding five themes: 1. Indigenous Peoples’ right to self-determination as a prerequisite for high-quality Arctic research 2. Ethics, methods and methodology as key for decolonial research 3. Indigenous-led research in design and practice 4. Indigenous Peoples’ co-equal participation in Arctic research funding structures and decision-making for securing decolonial Arctic research in practice 5. Funding for Co-Creative and Indigenous-Led Arctic Research
    Language: English
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  • 35
    Publication Date: 2024-05-24
    Description: Global projections of macroeconomic climate-change damages typically consider impacts from average annual and national temperatures over long time horizons. Here we use recent empirical findings from more than 1,600 regions worldwide over the past 40 years to project sub-national damages from temperature and precipitation, including daily variability and extremes. Using an empirical approach that provides a robust lower bound on the persistence of impacts on economic growth, we find that the world economy is committed to an income reduction of 19% within the next 26 years independent of future emission choices (relative to a baseline without climate impacts, likely range of 11–29% accounting for physical climate and empirical uncertainty). These damages already outweigh the mitigation costs required to limit global warming to 2 °C by sixfold over this near-term time frame and thereafter diverge strongly dependent on emission choices. Committed damages arise predominantly through changes in average temperature, but accounting for further climatic components raises estimates by approximately 50% and leads to stronger regional heterogeneity. Committed losses are projected for all regions except those at very high latitudes, at which reductions in temperature variability bring benefits. The largest losses are committed at lower latitudes in regions with lower cumulative historical emissions and lower present-day income.
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  • 36
    Publication Date: 2024-05-24
    Description: Are there group decision methods which (i) give everyone, including minorities, an equal share of effective decision power even when voters act strategically, (ii) promote consensus and equality, rather than polarization and inequality, and (iii) do not favour the status quo or rely too much on chance? We describe two non-deterministic group decision methods that meet these criteria, one based on automatic bargaining over lotteries, the other on conditional commitments to approve compromise options. Using theoretical analysis, agent-based simulations and a behavioral experiment, we show that these methods prevent majorities from consistently suppressing minorities, which can happen in deterministic methods, and keeps proponents of the status quo from blocking decisions, as in other consensus-based approaches. Our simulations show that these methods achieve aggregate welfare comparable to common voting methods, while employing chance judiciously, and that the welfare costs of fairness and consensus are small compared to the inequality costs of majoritarianism. In an incentivized experiment with naive participants, we find that a sizable fraction of participants prefers to use a non-deterministic voting method over Plurality Voting to allocate monetary resources. However, this depends critically on their position within the group. Those in the majority show a strong preference for majoritarian voting methods.
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  • 37
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    Exon Publications | Wilms Tumor
    Publication Date: 2024-05-24
    Description: The most important prognostic factors for Wilms tumor (WT) patients seem to be stage, histological subtype, and 1p/16q loss of heterozygosity (LOH) in chemotherapy-naive WTs. Over the last decade, age at diagnosis also was suggested to be an important risk factor for WT recurrence in Children’s Oncology Group (COG), United Kingdom (UK), and International Society of Pediatric Oncology (SIOP) studies. Several studies have analyzed age as a prognostic factor; these studies revealed age 〈2 years as a favorable prognostic factor, while age 〉4 years has been described as an adverse prognostic factor. In adults (〉18 years of age), WT represents less than 1% of all diagnosed renal tumors; therefore, diagnosis of WT in adults is often unexpected and poorly recognized, thereby inducing treatment delay with subsequent adverse outcome. One explanation for the higher risk of recurrence with increasing patient age is the higher frequency of anaplasia at higher age. Other suggested reasons are delay in diagnosis, advanced tumor stage at presentation, and intrinsically different biological behaviors. Whether age is really an independent risk factor, and whether age is a stronger prognostic factor than stage, histology, and LOH 1p/16q, needs to be further explored. This may provide some insight into whether older patients need to be treated more intensively, as is already advised for adult WT patients.
    Description: Published
    Keywords: MJR
    Language: English
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  • 38
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    Exon Publications | Wilms Tumor
    Publication Date: 2024-05-24
    Description: Wilms’ tumour (WT) is the most common paediatric renal tumour, which can present as a single nodule, as multifocal unilateral lesions or as bilateral tumours. Typically, WT comprises three histological components namely blastemal, epithelial and stromal. The proportion and the degree of maturation of these components vary significantly, making the histological appearance of each tumour unique. Classical triphasic WT rarely presents diagnostic difficulty for pathologists, but when only one component is present, especially in a small biopsy specimen, the differential diagnosis may include renal cell carcinoma, metanephric adenoma and hyperplastic nephrogenic rest for epithelial elements and clear cell sarcoma of the kidney, mesoblastic nephroma and synovial sarcoma for stromal elements. Pure blastemal-type WT may be difficult to distinguish from other embryonal ‘small round blue cell tumours’, including neuroblastoma, primitive neuroectodermal tumour/Ewing sarcoma, desmoplastic small round cell tumour and lymphoma. All the three components, though usually blastema, can become anaplastic, leading to the diagnosis of either focal or diffuse anaplasia. WT with diffuse anaplasia and WT with blastemal predominance (after preoperative che¬motherapy) are regarded as high-risk tumours and require more aggressive treatment. Careful assessment of the tumour and the normal kidney is critical for accurate subtyping and staging of WT, which is the basis for post-operative treatment. In addition, the identification and correct interpretation of nephrogenic rests may affect prognosis and management. Histological distinction between WT and nephrogenic rest is not always possible based on morphology alone, and implementation of new molecular genetic tools may aid in this regard. Other molecular genetic signatures of WT, such as P53 mutation and MYCN dysregulation, may provide future additional prognostic and therapeutic information.
    Description: Published
    Keywords: nephrogenic rest ; Wilms’ tumour ; MJR
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  • 39
    Publication Date: 2024-05-24
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  • 40
    Publication Date: 2024-05-24
    Description: The Mufushan area, which has abundant rare-metal pegmatites within and around the Mufushan Granite Complex, has become a major target for Ta-Nb-(Li-Be) exploration in South China. The age and origin of the pegmatites and associated rare-metal mineralization are still under debate. Here, we report the in situ U-Pb ages and geochemical characteristics of granites and pegmatites in the Guanyuan and Duanfengshan districts, which are located in the central and northern parts of the Mufushan Complex. Combined zircon, apatite and monazite U-(Th)-Pb dating revealed that biotite, two-mica, and muscovite granites from the Guanyuan and Duanfengshan districts were emplaced at 143–139 Ma, which overlaps with the U-Pb ages of columbite-group minerals (CGM) from different internal zones of the Duanfengshan pegmatites (142–140 Ma). Whole-rock major and trace element compositions and Sr-Nd-Hf isotope data reveal that the granites and pegmatites experienced continuous evolution from biotite, two-mica, and muscovite granites to pegmatite and that the magma originated from the partial melting of mica schists that are abundant in the Mufushan area. Temporal, chemical and mineralogical evidence indicates a genetic link between muscovite granite and Ta-Nb pegmatites. The textures and chemical compositions of CGM from different pegmatites exhibit features typical of magmatic CGM, indicating that fractional crystallization was the driving force that promoted Ta-Nb enrichment. The increasing alumina satu- ration index [ASI: molar Al/(Ca–1.67P + Na + K)] of pegmatitic melt due to albite crystallization may have been the main factor controlling CGM deposition, explaining why major Ta-Nb mineralization is bound to albite pegmatites. The Duanfengshan and other rare-metal pegmatites in the Mufushan area are derivatives of the most evolved granitic facies (i.e., muscovite granite) of the Mufushan Complex. The Duanfengshan and Renli pegmatite fields indicate that the Early Cretaceous (~140 Ma) may have been an important, underappreciated epoch for the formation of pegmatite-related rare-metal resources in the Mufushan area and beyond in South China.
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  • 41
    Publication Date: 2024-05-24
    Description: Geomechanics play an important role in any underground activity, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and hydrogen (H2) geo-storage, owing to the considerable hazards linked to the injection and withdrawal of fluids into and from the subsurface. In order to quantify these risks, knowledge of full stress tensor is required. Yet, most of our stress information in the Australian target basins for geo-storage is limited to the stress orientations, while stress magnitude data is sparse. 3D geomechanical modelling has proved to be an invaluable tool for prediction of full stress tensor. Nevertheless, a model requires some stress magnitude data in order to tune the model to be representative of real stress state. In situations where stress magnitude data is lacking, this means that the model is susceptible to significant uncertainties. Herein, we present a novel strategy for stress modelling, which involves the utilisation of indirect data such as borehole breakouts, drilling-induced fractures, seismic activity records, and formation integrity tests to calibrate a 3D geomechanical model. We employ the northern Bowen Basin, an onshore basin in Queensland, Australia, as a case study for a comprehensive 3D geomechanical modelling approach. We assess all the indirect information in the model’s volume to narrow down the model predictions and find the most reliable stress state. This innovative approach is an important step forward in stress modelling of Australian basins, where lack of stress magnitudes is a great challenge for geomechanical assessment of geo-storage.
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  • 42
    Publication Date: 2024-05-24
    Description: The ionosphere is an ionized part of the upper atmosphere, where the number of free electrons is large enough to affect the propagation of radio signals, including those of the GNSS systems. The knowledge of electron density values in the ionosphere is crucial for both industrial and scientific applications. Here, we develop a novel empirical model of electron density in the topside ionosphere using the radio occultation profiles collected by the CHAMP, GRACE, and COSMIC missions. We assume a linear decay of scale height with altitude and model four parameters, namely the F2-peak density and height (NmF2 and hmF2) and the slope and intercept of the linear scale height decay (dHs/dh and HO). The resulting model (NET) is based on feedforward neural networks. The model inputs include the the geographic and geomagnetic position, the solar flux and geomagnetic indices. The resulting density reconstructions are validated on more than a hundred million in-situ measurements from CHAMP, CNOFS and Swarm satellites, as well as on the GRACE/KBR data, and the developed NET model is compared to several topside options of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model. The NET model yields highly accurate reconstructions of the topside ionosphere and gives unbiased predictions for different locations, seasons, and solar activity conditions.
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  • 43
    Publication Date: 2024-05-24
    Description: Continental subduction is the major cause of regional heterogeneities in the lithospheric mantle and contrasting types of magmatism and mineralization in post-collisional settings. We illustrate the relation between the nature of the subducted crust and the character of magmatism for the Late Miocene New Guinea Orogen that formed by the collision of the Australian continental margin with an island arc. The bipartite nature of the subducted Australian plate margin, with Precambrian crust in the west and Phanerozoic accreted arcs in the east, is reflected in the contrasting magmatism along the strike of the New Guinea Orogen. The chemical signature of the subducted crust is particularly prominent in small-volume Late Miocene–Quaternary ultrapotassic rocks of New Guinea. In the west, ultrapotassic lavas have low εNd values (−12.6 to −20.9), indicating the recycling of ancient continental material. Conversely, high εNd values of +3.5 to +4.5 are found in ultrapotassic lavas from eastern New Guinea. This suggests recycling of juvenile continental material, similar to the orthogneisses exposed in the Late Miocene ultrahigh-pressure metamorphic complex of the D'Entrecasteaux Islands. By comparison with ultrapotassic rocks from other orogenic belts, we show that crustal recycling is responsible for regionally contrasting redox conditions in the lithospheric mantle, which may explain why porphyry-type deposits are important in some regions but absent in others.
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  • 44
    Publication Date: 2024-05-24
    Description: In geosciences, machine learning (ML) has become essential for solving complex problems, such as predicting natural disasters or analysing the impact of extreme temperatures on mortality rates. However, the integration of ML into geoscience scenarios faces significant challenges, especially in explaining the influence of hyperparameters (HP) on model performance and model behaviour in specific scenarios. The Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) system ClarifAI developed at GFZ addresses these challenges by combining XAI concepts with interactive visualisation. ClarifAI currently provides users with two interactive XAI methods: HyperParameter Explorer (HPExplorer) and Hypothetical Scenario Explorer (HSExplorer). HPExplorer allows interactive exploration of the HP space by computing an interactive tour through stable regions of the HP space. We define a stable region in HP space as a subspace of HP space in which ML models show similar model performance. We also employ HP importance analysis to deepen the understanding of the impact of separate HPs on model performance.The Hypothetical Scenarios Explorer (HSExplorer) helps users explore model behaviour by allowing them to test how changes in input data affect the model's response. In our presentation, we will demonstrate how HSExplorer helps users understand the impact of individual HPs on model performance. As ClarifAI is an important research area in our lab, we are interested in discussing relevant XAI challenges with the XAI community in ESSI. Our goal is to create a comprehensive set of tools that explain the mechanics of ML models and allow practitioners to apply ML to a wide range of geoscience applications.
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  • 45
    Publication Date: 2024-05-24
    Description: Subduction zones are critical sites for recycling of Li and B into the mantle. The way of redistribution of Li and B and their isotopes in subduction settings is debated, and there is a lack of detailed studies on Li and B partitioning between minerals of different types of eclogites and the host rocks of the eclogites. We present Li and B concentration data of minerals and Li and B whole-rock isotope data for low-T and high-T eclogites and their phengite schist host rocks from the Changning–Menglian suture zone, SW China. Omphacite controls the Li budget in both the low-T and high-T eclogites. Low-T eclogites have Li and δ7Li values (8.4–27.0 ppm, – 5.5 to + 3.2 ‰) similar to the phengite schists (8.7–27.0 ppm, – 3.8 to + 3.0 ‰), suggesting that Li was added to low-T eclogites from the phengite schists. In contrast, high-T eclogites have much lower δ7Li values (– 13.2 to – 5.8 ‰) than the phengite schists, reflecting prograde loss of Li or exchange with wall rocks characterized by low δ7Li values. Phengite and retrograde amphibole/muscovite are the major B hosts for low-T and high-T eclogites, respectively. The budgets and isotopic compositions of B in eclogites are affected by the infiltration of fluids derived from phengite schists, as indicated by eclogite δ11B values (– 15.1 to – 8.1 ‰) overlapping with the values of the phengite schists (– 22.8 to – 9.5 ‰). Lithium and B in eclogites are hosted in different mineral phases that may have formed at different stages of metamorphism, implying that the contents and isotopic compositions of Li and B may become decoupled during subduction-related fluid-mediated redistribution. We suggest a mineralogical control on the redistribution of Li and B in eclogites during subduction and the exchange of Li and B with the immediate wall rocks. The observed contrasting Li and B isotopic signatures in eclogites are likely caused by a fluid-mediated exchange with different types of wall rocks during both prograde metamorphism and exhumation.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 46
    Publication Date: 2024-05-24
    Description: Iron tailings are crystalline powders predominantly composed of iron (Fe) and silicon dioxide (SiO2). Spatially characterizing of the physical and chemical properties of iron tailings is greatly important for optimal utilization and proper disposal of tailings. Visible–near infrared–shortwave infrared (VIS–NIR–SWIR; 350–2500 nm) spectroscopy offers a rapid, non-destructive, and cost-effective method for quantitatively analyzing tailings properties. The main objective of this study was to map the spatial distribution of total Fe (TFe) and SiO2 content in a tailings dam through the use of laboratory spectra and GF-5 hyperspectral imagery based a calibration transfer model approach. A total of 77 samples were collected from the surface of targeting field and scanned by a laboratory VIS–NIR–SWIR reflectance spectrometer. The competitive adaptive re-weighted sampling (CARS) algorithm was applied to select important spectral features. Subsequently, different spectral indices were calculated to enhance the prediction performance of the calibration models. Rulefit and random forest (RF) algorithms were used to calibrate spectral information with associated tailing properties. The results showed that the Rulefit algorithm with selected feature bands and calculated spectral indices yielded the highest estimation accuracy for TFe (R2 = 0.86, RMSE = 1.30%, LCCC = 0.87 and bias = -0.45) and SiO2 (R2 = 0.74, RMSE = 2.00%, LCCC = 0.84 and bias = 0.38). The direct standardization (DS) algorithm was applied to correct GF-5 hyperspectral images and enhance the efficiency of calibration model transfer process. Finally, the Rulefit models were transferred to corrected GF-5 hyperspectral images for mapping the spatial distribution of TFe and SiO2 contents. Our results demonstrated the possibility of successful transfer of laboratory spectral-based model to the GF-5 hyperspectral imagery for mapping spatial distribution of tailing compositions. This finding can be applied for efficiently recovering valuable metals and minimizing environmental risks.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
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  • 47
    Publication Date: 2024-05-24
    Description: The late Carboniferous/early Permian post-collisional rhyolites (305–285 Ma) that formed in Central Europe have generally similar whole rock compositions to that of older Late-Variscan rhyolites (330–310 Ma). However, data compilation combining zircon age with the chemical composition of rhyolites from 20 units shows a trend of increasing zircon saturation temperature with decreasing age. This trend is particularly well identified in rhyolites from the Central European Lowlands (CEL)—consisting of the NE German and NW Polish Basin—and also correlates their location with the zircon saturation temperature increasing from SE to NW from 750°C to 850°C. We infer that these higher temperatures of zircon saturation reflect a contemporaneous change in the tectonic setting from collisional to divergent, reflecting the onset of the Central European continental rifting. This interpretation is further corroborated by the trace element compositions of the CEL zircons, which resembles zircon crystallized in a divergent setting. Interestingly, the zircon formed globally in this type of setting is chemically diverse, especially considering uranium concentration. For example, zircon from locations dominated by mafic magma fractionation, such as rhyolites from Iceland, have low U concentrations and low U/Yb ratios. On the other hand, zircon formed in rhyolites in rifted margins, like western North America, tends to have much higher U and U/Yb ratios. Such high concentrations are not observed in zircon from the CEL, suggesting that the mantle input could be higher and residence times within continental crust shorter than those for rhyolites from the Cenozoic western USA. This may, in turn, suggest that the region might have been affected by a hot spot, similar to that responsible for rhyolite formation of the Snake River Plain.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 48
    Publication Date: 2024-05-23
    Keywords: ddc:600
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
    Type: workingpaper , doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 49
    Publication Date: 2024-05-23
    Description: The steel industry is responsible for eight per cent of global CO2 emissions. As more than seven out of ten of today's coal-fired blast furnaces are due to be refurbished or replaced in the 2020s, there is a key window of opportunity to shift to low-emission production methods before the end of this decade. The analysis by Agora Industry, Wuppertal Institute and Lund University assesses eight potential breakthrough technologies in terms of their market readiness, cost and impact on emissions. The methods analysed include the use of hydrogen to produce direct reduced iron, scrap-based electric arc furnaces, electrolysis and the implementation of carbon capture in existing coal-fired facilities. While some of these technologies can already be deployed today to kick-start the market for green steel, others will take more time to reach technological maturity, but show promise in the long-term. A third group may never turn into adequate solutions for decarbonising the steel sector. In their analysis, the scientists conclude that scrap and hydrogen-based methods hold the biggest promise for companies aiming to make the switch this decade. By contrast, retrofitting existing coal-based facilities with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology entails the biggest economic and environmental risk, the authors find. Regardless of the technologies chosen, appropriate regulatory frameworks, international cooperation, and targeted incentives are necessary to boost demand for green steel and promote its production. At the same time, such measures can help steer manufacturers away from costly technological dependencies.
    Keywords: ddc:600
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
    Type: report , doc-type:report
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  • 50
    Publication Date: 2024-05-23
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉NASA's Juno mission delivered gravity data of exceptional quality. They indicate that the zonal winds, which rule the dynamics of Jupiter's cloud deck, must slow down significantly beyond a depth of about 3,000 km. Since the underlying inversion is highly non‐unique additional constraints on the flow properties at depth are required. These could potentially be provided by the magnetic field and its Secular Variation (SV) over time. However, the role of these zonal winds in Jupiter's magnetic field dynamics is little understood. Here we use numerical simulations to explore the impact of the zonal winds on the dynamo field produced at depth. We find that the main effect is an attenuation of the non‐axisymmetric field, which can be quantified by a modified magnetic Reynolds number Rm that combines flow amplitude and electrical conductivity profile. Values below Rm = 3 are required to retain a pronounced non‐axisymmetric feature like the Great Blue Spot (GBS), which seems characteristic for Jupiter's magnetic field. This allows for winds reaching as deep as 3,400 km. A SV pattern similar to the observation can only be found in some of our models. Its amplitude reflects the degree of cancellation between advection and diffusion rather than the zonal wind velocity at any depth. It is therefore not straightforward to make inferences on the deep structure of cloud‐level winds based on Jupiter's SV.〈/p〉
    Description: Plain Language Summary: The dynamics in Jupiter's cloud layer is dominated by eastward and westward directed wind jets that circumvent the planet and reach velocities of up to 150 m per second. For the first time, NASA's Juno mission could measure the tiny gravity changes caused by these winds. The data show that the winds reach down to a depth of about 3,000 km, roughly 4% of Jupiter's radius. However, the interpretation is difficult and several alternative wind profiles have been suggested. In this paper we use numerical simulations to explore how these winds would affect Jupiter's magnetic field, which has also been measured with high precision by Juno. The field shows a strong inward‐directed local patch just south of the equator, called the GBS. The impact of the winds on the magnetic field rapidly increases with depth because of the increase in the electrical conductivity. Our simulations show that winds reaching deeper than about 3,400 km would practically wipe out the GBS. This confirms that they have to remain shallower. Juno also observed an east‐ward drift of the GBS. While some of our simulations also show an east‐ward drift it is typically much too slow.〈/p〉
    Description: Key Points: 〈list list-type="bullet"〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉We study the magnetic field variations caused by Jupiter's deep‐reaching surface winds for various flow and electrical conductivity models〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Zonal winds reaching deeper than 3,400 km would yield a very axisymmetric surface field and are thus unrealistic〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉It seems questionable that Jupiter's secular variation carries any useful information on the zonal winds〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈/list〉 〈/p〉
    Description: Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000266
    Description: https://doi.org/10.17617/3.CNVRWD
    Keywords: ddc:523 ; Jupiter ; magnetic field ; atmospheric dynamics ; zonal winds
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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