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  • 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
  • Elsevier  (12)
  • American Physical Society  (1)
  • 1
    Publication Date: 2023-06-05
    Description: We are presenting an attempt to evaluate the spatial variability of geotechnical parameters in the upper Pleistocene–Holocene alluvial deposits of Roma (Italy) by means of multivariate geostatistics. The upper Pleistocene–Holocene alluvial deposits of Roma are sensitive to high levels of geohazard. They occupy a sizable and significant part of the city, being the foundation for many monuments, historical neighborhoods, and archaeological areas, and the main host of the present and future subway lines. We have stored information from more than 2000 geotechnical boreholes crossing the alluvial deposits into a relational database. For the present study, only the boreholes with lithologic/textural interpretation and geotechnical information were selected. The set includes 283 boreholes and 719 samples, which have a set of geotechnical information comprising physical properties and mechanical parameters. Techniques of multivariate statistics and geostatistics were combined and compared to evaluate the estimation methods of the mechanical parameters, with special reference to the drained friction angle from direct shear test (φ′). Principal Component Analysis was applied to the dataset to highlight the relationships between the geotechnical parameters. Through cross-validation analysis, multiple linear regression, kriging, and cokriging were tested as estimators of φ′. Cross-validation demonstrates that the cokriging with granulometries as auxiliary variables is the most suitable method to estimate φ′. In addition to proving that cokriging is a good estimator of φ′, cross-validation demonstrates that input data are coherent and this allows us to use them for estimation of geotechnical parameters, although they come from different laboratories and different vintages. Nevertheless, to get the same good results of cross-validation in estimation, it is necessary for granulometries to be available at grid points. Since this information being not available at all grid points, it is expected that, in the future, textural information can be derived in an indirect way, i.e., from lithologic/textural spatial reconstructions.
    Description: Published
    Description: 251-268
    Description: 2.3. TTC - Laboratori di chimica e fisica delle rocce
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Alluvial deposits ; Geotechnical properties ; Principal Component Analysis ; Multivariate geostatistics ; Roma ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2021-05-17
    Description: The problem of ranking and weighting experts' performances when quantitative judgments are being elicited for decision support is considered. A new scoring model, the Expected Relative Frequency model, is presented, based on the closeness between central values provided by the expert and known values used for calibration. Using responses from experts in five different elicitation datasets, a cross-validation technique is used to compare this new approach with the Cooke Classical Model, the Equal Weights model, and individual experts. The analysis is performed using alternative reward schemes designed to capture proficiency either in quantifying uncertainty, or in estimating true central values. Results show that although there is only a limited probability that one approach is consistently better than another, the Cooke Classical Model is generally the most suitable for assessing uncertainties, whereas the new ERF model should be preferred if the goal is central value estimation accuracy.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1292-1310
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Expert elicitation ; Expert judgement ; Subjective probability ; Cross-validation ; Cooke Classical Model ; Expected Relative Frequency model ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.08. Sediments: dating, processes, transport ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2020-02-24
    Description: We formulate a mathematical model for a geothermal basin with an idealized geometry characterized by: (1) radial symmetry around an extracting well (or a cluster of wells), (2) a relatively thin horizontal fractured layer lying underneath a low permeability, low porosity rock layer, saturated with water. Vaporization is allowed only at the boundary of the extracting well (or well cluster). The model is based on the assumption that the flow from the reservoir to the well is fed by a gravity driven flow through the overstanding rocks. Despite the various simplifying assumptions, the resulting mathematical problem is considerably difficult also because we consider the effect of thermal expansion and thermal variation of viscosity. Though there is no evidence that the assumed configuration of the basin approaches the structure of a known geothermal field, the results obtained match with surprising accuracy the data of a specific field in the Mt. Amiata area (data kindly provided by ENEL Green Power through Tuscany Region).
    Description: Published
    Description: 37-54
    Description: 5A. Energia e georisorse
    Description: 6A. Monitoraggio ambientale, sicurezza e territorio
    Description: 7A. Geofisica di esplorazione
    Description: 3IT. Calcolo scientifico e sistemi informatici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Geothermal reservoirs ; Porous media ; Permeability estimation ; Fractured media ; 01. Atmosphere::01.02. Ionosphere::01.02.01. Ion chemistry and composition ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.02. Hydrology::03.02.02. Hydrological processes: interaction, transport, dynamics ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.02. Hydrology::03.02.05. Models and Forecasts ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.03. Inverse methods ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis ; 05. General::05.05. Mathematical geophysics::05.05.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We describe a numerical simulation of both concentrated and dilute gravity-driven pyroclastic flows on a digital topographic model of the Campi Flegrei volcanic field. Families of numerical flows are generated by sampling a multi-dimensional matrix of vent coordinates, flow properties and dynamical parameters within a wide range of values. Hazard maps are constructed from the data base of simulated flows, using a mixed deterministic^statistical approach. The set of probable vents covers the area of recent eruptions. Results show the key role of topography in controlling the flow dispersion. The maximum hazard appears to be the NE sector of the caldera. Flows in the eastern sector, including the city of Naples, are shown to be efficiently hindered by the Posillipo and Camaldoli hills at the caldera borders, thus reducing the hazard. The results represent the first physically based estimate of hazard from pyroclastic flows in this densely populated area, and can be used for civil defence purposes.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1-14
    Description: partially_open
    Keywords: Campi flegrei ; calderas ; pyroclastic flows ; hazard maps ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We argue that the recent discovery of the non-Poissonian statistics of the seismic main-shocks is a special case of a more general approach to the detection of the distribution of the time increments between one crucial but invisible event and the next. We make the conjecture that the proposed approach can be applied to the analysis of terrorist network with significant benefits for the Intelligence Community.
    Description: Published
    Description: 77-85
    Description: partially_open
    Keywords: crucial events ; against terrorism ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.02. Cellular automata, fuzzy logic, genetic alghoritms, neural networks ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We perform an analysis on the dissipative Olami-Feder-Christensen model on a small world topology considering avalanche size differences. We show that when criticality appears, the probability density functions (PDFs) for the avalanche size differences at different times have fat tails with a q-Gaussian shape. This behavior does not depend on the time interval adopted and is found also when considering energy differences between real earthquakes. Such a result can be analytically understood if the sizes (released energies) of the avalanches (earthquakes) have no correlations. Our findings support the hypothesis that a self-organized criticality mechanism with long-range interactions is at the origin of seismic events and indicate that it is not possible to predict the magnitude of the next earthquake knowing those of the previous ones.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2.3. TTC - Laboratori di chimica e fisica delle rocce
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: SOC, earthquakes interaction ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The aim of this paper is to provide some constrains on the time behavior of earthquake generation mechanism, through the usage of a non-parametric statistics that leads up to the empirical estimation of the hazard function. The results indicate that the most characterizing temporal feature for large (M 7.0+) worldwide shallow earthquake occurrence is a clustering lasting few years, indicating that the probability of earthquake occurrence is higher immediately after the occurrence of an event. After that, the process becomes almost time independent, as in a Poisson process. Remarkably, this time clustering is very similar to what previously found for different spatio-magnitude windows, and it does not seem to depend on the tectonic style of the region. This may support the hypothesis of an universal law for earthquake occurrence.
    Description: In press
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Scenari e mappe di pericolosità sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Earthquake spatio-temporal distribution ; World Wide Seismicity ; Temporal cluster ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The aim of this paper is to characterize the spatio-temporal distribution of Central-Europe seismicity. Specifically, by using a non-parametric statistical approach, the proportional hazard model, leading to an empirical estimation of the hazard function, we provide some constrains on the time behavior of earthquake generation mechanisms. The results indicate that the most conspic- uous characteristics of MW 4.0+ earthquakes is a temporal clustering lasting a couple of years. This suggests that the probability of occurrence increases immediately after a previous event. After a few years, the process becomes almost time independent. Furthermore, we investigate the cluster properties of the seismicity of Central-Europe, by comparing the obtained result with the one of synthetic catalogs generated by the epidemic type aftershock sequences (ETAS) model, which previously have been successfully applied for short term clustering. Our results indicate that the ETAS is not well suited to describe the seismicity as a whole, while it is able to capture the features of the short- term behaviour. Remarkably, similar results have been previously found for Italy using a higher magnitude threshold.
    Description: In press
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Earthquake Distribution ; Earthquake Forecast ; Spatio-temporal statistical analysis ; Cluester ; Central Europe ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We compare the ability of three aftershock decay models proposed in the literature to reproduce the behavior of 24 real aftershock sequences of Southern California and Italy. In particular, we consider the Modified Omori Model (MOM), the Modified Stretched Exponential model (MSE) and the Band Limited Power Law (LPL). We show that, if the background rate is modeled properly, the MSE or the LPL reproduce the aftershock rate decay generally better than the MOM and are preferable, on the basis of the Akaike and Bayesian information criteria, for about one half of the sequences. In particular the LPL, which is usually preferable with respect to the MSE and fits well the data of most sequences, might represent a valid alternative to the MOM in real-time forecasts of aftershock probabilities. We also show that the LPL generally fits the data better than a purely empirical formula equivalent to the aftershock rate equation predicted by the rate- and state-dependent friction model. This indicates that the emergence of a negative exponential decay at long times is a general property of many aftershock sequences but also that the process of aftershock generation is not fully described by current physical models.
    Description: Published
    Description: 183–193
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Aftershock; Omori's model; Stretched exponential law; Band Limited Power Law; Background rate; Rate- and state-dependent friction law ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We analyzed the correlations among the parameters of the Reasenberg and Jones [Reasenberg, P.A., Jones, L.M., 1989. Earthquake hazard after a mainshock in California, Science 243, 1173–1176] formula describing the aftershock rate after a mainshock as a function of time and magnitude, on the basis of parameter estimates made in previous works for New Zealand, Italy and California. For all of three datasets we found that the magnitude-independent productivity a is significantly correlated with the b-value of the Gutenberg–Richter law and, in some cases, with parameters p and c of the modified Omori’s law. We also found significant correlations between p and c but, different from some previous works, not between p and b.We verified that assuming a coefficient for mainshock magnitude α≈2/3b (instead of b) removes the correlation between a and b and improves the ability to forecast the behavior of Italian sequences occurred from 1997 to 2003 on the basis of average parameters estimated from sequences occurred from 1981 to 1996. This assumption well agrees with direct α estimates made in the framework of an epidemic type model (ETAS) from the data of some large Italian sequences. Our results suggest a modification of the original Reasenberg and Jones (1989) formulation leading to predict lower rates (and probabilities) for stronger mainshocks and conversely higher rates for weaker ones. We also inferred that the correlation of a with p and c might be the consequence of the trade-off between the two parameters of the modified Omori’s law. In this case the correlation can be partially removed by renormalizing the time-dependent part of the rate equation. Finally, the absence of correlation between p and b, observed for all the examined datasets, indicates that such correlation, previously inferred from theoretical considerations and empirical results in some regions, does not represent a common property of aftershock sequences in different part of the world.
    Description: Published
    Description: 41-58
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Aftershocks forecasting; Omori law; Gutenberg–Richter law; Parameters correlation ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We evaluated the efficiency of various models in describing the time decay of aftershock rate of 47 simple sequences occurred in California (37) from 1933 to 2004 and in Italy (10) from 1976 to 2004.We compared the models by the corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc) and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), both based on the log-likelihood function and also including a penalty term that takes into account the number of independent observations and of free parameters of each model. These criteria follow two different approaches (probabilistic and Bayesian respectively) well covering the wide spectra of current views on model comparison. To evaluate the role of catalog incompleteness in the first times after the main shock, we compared the performance of different models by varying the starting time Ts and the minimum magnitude threshold Mmin for each sequence. We found that Omori-type models including parameter c are preferable to those not including it, only for short Ts and low Mmin while the latters generally perform better than the formers for Ts longer than a few hours and Mmin larger than the main shock magnitude Mm minus 3 units. For TsN1 day or MminNMm−2.5, only about 15% of the sequences still give a preference to models including c. This clearly indicates that a value of parameter c different from zero does not represent a general property of aftershock sequences in California and Italy but it is very likely induced in most cases by catalog incompleteness in the first times after the main shock.We also considered other models of aftershock decay proposed in the literature: the Stretched Exponential Law in two forms (including and not including a time shift) and the band Limited Power Law (LPL).We found that such models perform worse than the Modified Omori Model (MOM) and other Omori-type models for the large majority of sequences, although for LPL, the relatively short duration of the analyzed sequences (one year) might also contribute to its poor performance. Our analysis demonstrates that the MOMwith c kept fixed to 0 represent the better choice for the modeling (and the forecasting) of simple sequence behavior in California and Italy.
    Description: Published
    Description: 43-59
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Aftershocks decay; Omori law; Band limited power law; Stretched exponential law; Earthquake catalog incompleteness 1. Introduction ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In this paper we demonstrate that the seismic sequence of foreshocks culminating with the recent Mw=6.3 main shock on April 6, 2009 in L'Aquila (Central Italy) evolved as a chaotic process. To do this, we apply a nonlinear retrospective prediction to this seismic sequence and look at the temporal behaviour of the error between predicted and actual occurrence of the main shock when gradually increasing parts of the sequence are considered. This is a generalisation of the typical nonlinear approach which is quite powerful to detect chaos in relatively short time series. The method of prediction is based on the Accelerated Strain Release (ASR) analysis in time and on the nonlinear forecasting approach in a reconstructed phase space. We find that i) the temporal decay of the prediction error is consistent with an exponential function with a time constant τ of about 10 days and ii) at around 6 days before the main shock, ASR analysis is quite powerful for anticipating the time of occurrence with an uncertainty of about a day. Due to its retrospective characteristics, the latter result could be affected by changes on some a-priori parameters used in the application of the ASR technique. However, we consider these findings, together with those obtained from the phase-space analysis, to be strong evidence that the studied sequence of foreshocks was produced by a physical process dominated by a significant chaotic component characterised by a K-entropy=1/τ of about 0.1 day−1. This result could have important implications for the predictability of the possible main shock for those seismic sequences showing analogous nonlinear chaotic properties.
    Description: Published
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Seismic sequence ; Chaotic process ; Accelerated Strain Release ; Nonlinear prediction ; Phase-space reconstruction ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We performed a quantitative hazard assessment to determine the potential impacts of volcanic tephra fall on human health and infrastructure in the vicinity of Mt. Etna (Italy). Using the numerical model VOL-CALPUFF, we explored the dynamics of long-lasting weak plume eruptions and their effects on the surrounding region. Input data are based on credible estimates of the main parameters characterising the expected events as derived from the historically observed and reconstructed explosive record of Mt. Etna. Monte Carlo techniques are used to capture the effects on estimates of finer ash concentration and total ground deposition due to volcanological uncertainties and meteorological variability. Numerical simulations compute the likelihoods of experiencing critical 10-μm volcanic particle (VP10) concentrations in ambient air and tephra ground deposition at various populated locations around the volcano, including the city of Catania, and at key infrastructure, such as airports and main roads. Results show how the towns and infrastructure on the east side of the volcano are significantly more exposed to ash-related hazards than those on the west side, in accordance with wind statistics. Simulation outcomes also illustrate how, at the sites analysed, the amount of deposited particulate matter is proportional to the intensity (i.e. mass flow rate) of the event whereas predicted values of VP10 concentrations are significantly larger for smaller events due to the reduced dispersal of low altitude plumes. The use of a simple re-mobilization model highlights the fact that particle re-suspension needs to be considered in the estimation of VP10 values. Our findings can be used to inform civil protection agencies responsible for mitigating tephra fall impacts to human health, road transport and aviation safety.
    Description: Published
    Description: 85-96
    Description: 3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: volcanic ash ; hazard assessment ; VP10 exposure ; numerical simulation ; VOL-CALPUFF ; Mt. Etna ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.07. Volcanic effects ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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