ALBERT

Description: Fault creep along the lower eastern flank of Mt. Etna volcano has been documented since the end of the 19th century and significantly contributes to the surface faulting hazard in the area. On 29 October 2002, during a seismic swarm related to dyke intrusions, two earthquakes caused extensive damage and surface faulting in an area between the Santa Venerina and Santa Tecla villages. On the same day after the two earthquakes, an episodic aseismic creep occurred along the Scalo Pennisi Fault close to the Santa Tecla coastline. On 8 February 2022, during another aseismic creep event along the Scalo Pennisi Fault, we observed the reopening of the pre existing 2002 ground ruptures mostly as pure dilational fractures. We mapped the 2002 and 2022 surface ruptures, and collected data on displacement, length, and pattern of ground breaks. Ground ruptures affected structures located along the activated fault segments, including roads, walls and buildings. The 2002 surface faulting propagation can be ascribed to a sliding of the Mt. Etna eastern flank toward the SE, as also suggested by the related shallow seismicity, and InSAR and geodetic data between 2002 and 2005. For the 2022 event, dif ferential InSAR data, acquired in both descending and ascending views, allowed us to decompose Line of Sight (LOS) displacement into horizontal and vertical components. We detect a ~ 700 m long and ~ 500 m wide deformation zone with a downward and eastward motion (max displacement ~1,5 cm) consistent with a normal fault. We inverted the InSAR–detected surface deformation using a uniform-slip fault model and obtained a shallow detachment for the causative fault, located at ~300 m depth, within the volcanic pile. This is the first in depth study along the Scalo Pennisi Fault to suggest a shallow faulting that accommodates Mt. Etna E flank gravitational sliding.

Description: Published

Description: 229829

Description: JCR Journal

Description: The spatial pattern of Antarctic surface air temperature variability on multi–decadal to multi–centennial time scales is poorly known because of the short instrumental records, the relatively small number of high–resolution paleoclimate observations, and biases in climate models. Here, changes in surface air temperature over Antarctica are reconstructed over the past two millennia using data assimilation constrained by different ice core water isotope records in order to identify robust signals. The comparison between previous statistically based temperature reconstructions and simulations covering the full Common Era driven by natural and anthropogenic forcings shows major discrepancies occurring in the period 1–1000 CE over East Antarctica, with the reconstructions displaying a warming over 1–500 CE that is not reproduced by the simulations. This suggests that the trends in the first millennium deduced from the statistically based reconstructions are unlikely to be entirely forced by external forcings. Our reconstructions show the high sensitivity of the 500-year temperature trend in Antarctica and its spatial distribution to selection of the records for the reconstructions, especially during 1–500 CE. A robust cooling over Antarctica during 501–1000 CE has been obtained in three data assimilation–based reconstructions with a larger magnitude in the WAIS than elsewhere over Antarctica, in agreement with previous estimates with the larger changes than simulated in climate models. The reconstructions for atmospheric circulation indicate that the pattern of temperature changes over 501–1000 CE is related to the positive trend of Southern Annular Mode and a deepening of Amundsen Sea Low. This confirms the role of internal variability in the temperature trends on multi–centennial scales.

Description: Nominally anhydrous minerals (NAMs) may contain significant amounts of water and constitute an important reservoir for mantle hydrogen. The colloquial term ‘water’ in NAMs is related to the presence of hydroxyl-bearing (OH􀀀 ) point defects in their crystal structure, where hydrogen is bonded to lattice oxygen and is charge-balanced by cation vacancies. This hydrous component may therefore have substantial effects on the thermoelastic parameters of NAMs, comparable to other major crystal-chemical substitutions (e.g., Fe, Al). Assessment of water concentrations in natural minerals from mantle xenoliths indicates that olivine commonly stores ~0–200 ppm of water. However, the lack of samples originating from depths exceeding ~250 km coupled with the rapid diffusion of hydrogen in olivine at magmatic temperatures makes the determination of the olivine water content in the upper mantle challenging. On the other hand, numerous experimental data show that, at pressures and temperatures corresponding to deep upper mantle conditions, the water storage capacity of olivine increases to 0.2–0.5 wt%. Therefore, determining the elastic properties of olivine samples with more realistic water contents for deep upper mantle conditions may help in interpreting both seismic velocity anomalies in potentially hydrous regions of Earth’s mantle as well as the observed seismic velocity and density contrasts across the 410-km discontinuity. Here, we report simultaneous single-crystal X-ray diffraction and Brillouin scattering experiments at room temperature up to 11.96(2) GPa on hydrous [0.20(3) wt% H2O] Fo90 olivine to assess its full elastic tensor, and complement these results with a careful re-analysis of all the available single-crystal elasticity data from the literature for anhydrous Fo90 olivine. While the bulk (K) and shear (G) moduli of hydrous Fo90 olivine are virtually identical to those of the corresponding anhydrous phase, their pressure derivatives K′ and G′ are slightly larger, although consistent within mutual uncertainties. We then defined linear relations between the water concentration in Fo90 olivine, the elastic moduli and their pressure derivatives, which were then used to compute the sound velocities of Fo90 olivine with higher degrees of hydration. Even for water concentrations as high as 0.5 wt%, the sound wave velocities of hydrous and anhydrous olivines were found to be identical within uncertainties at pressures corresponding to the base of the upper mantle. Contrary to previous claims, our data suggest that water in olivine is not seismically detectable, at least for contents consistent with deep upper mantle conditions. In addition to that, our data reveal that the hydration of olivine is unlikely to be a key factor in reconciling seismic velocity and density contrasts across the 410-km discontinuity with a pyrolitic mantle.

Description: Published

Description: 107011

Description: JCR Journal

Description: The rapid decline in both quality and availability of freshwater resources on our planet necessitates their thorough assessment to ensure sustainable usage. The growing demand for water in industrial, agricultural, and domestic sectors poses significant challenges to managing both surface and groundwater resources. This study tests and proposes a hybrid evaluation approach to determine Groundwater Quality Indices (GQIs) for irrigation (IRRI), seawater intrusion (SWI), and potability (POT), finalized to the spatial distribution of groundwater suitability involving water quality indicator along with hydrogeological and socio-economic factors. Mean Decrease Accuracy (MDA) and Information Gain Ratio (IGR) were used to state the importance of chosen factors such as level of groundwater above the sea, thickness of the aquifer, land cover, distance from coastline, silt soil content, recharge, distance from river and lagoons, depth to water table from ground, distance from agricultural wells, hydraulic conductivity, and lithology for each quality index, separately. The results of both methods showed that recharge is the most important parameter for GQIIRRI and GQIPOT, while the distance from the coastline and the rivers, are the most important for GQISWI. The spatial modelling of GQIIRRI and GQIPOT in the study area has been achieved applying three machine learning (ML) algorithms: the Boosted Regression Tree (BRT), the Random Forest (RF), and the Support Vector Machine (SVM). Validation results showed that RF has the highest prediction for GQIIRRI, while the SVM model has the highest prediction for the GQIPOT index. It is worth to mention that the future utilization and testing of new algorithms could produce even better results. Finally, GQIIRRI and GQIPOT were combined and compared using two combine and overlay methods to prepare a hybrid map of multi-GQIs. The results showed that 69% of the study area is suitable for irrigation and potable use, due to both geogenic and anthropogenic activities which contribute to make some water resources unsuitable for either use. Specifically, the northern, western, and eastern portions of the study area are in the "very high and high quality" classes while the southern portion shows "very low and low quality" classes. In conclusion, the developed map and approach can serve as a practical guide for enhancing groundwater management, identifying suitable areas for various uses and pinpointing regions requiring improved management practices.

Description: Published

Description: 119041

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Extreme rainfall generated by storms and atmospheric instability causes innumerable damage to coastal areas and their marine ecosystems. This chapter describes some of the processes that generate critical precipitation events in coastal areas. Among these, the typical synoptic conditions combine with the increase in sea surface temperature and air temperature, coastal geomorphology, and sea breeze. Coastal and regional rainfall events should be studied to understand the meteorological, oceanographic, and geomorphological conditions that cause the extreme events, to later relate them with the consequences on coasts. The effects of the interaction of storms with tides originating storm surges and the effect of sea-level rise are described as well as the main consequences of extreme rainfall events such as beach erosion, decrease in water quality, changes in plankton and fish species that inhabit coastal waters, among others.

Description: In this paper we employ a combination of gravity and hydrologic data to constrain a hydraulic model of the Škocjan Caves, an allogenic dominated karstic system in Slovenia. The gravity time-series recorded by a spring-based gravimeter, are carefully analyzed to remove tidal and non-tidal effects and unveil the local hydrologic contribution, which is influenced by the temporary accumulation of water in the cave system during the flood events of the Reka river. We make use of a combined analysis of three large flood events with peak river discharge of about 200, 230 and 300 m3/s, that caused significant water level and gravity variations sensed by the pressure transducer and by the gravimeter. By the integration of hydraulic modelling we study the different coupled gravimetric-hydrologic responses to these flood events: we show that, depending on the peak discharge and duration of the event, different flow conditions are present in the cave system. In addition to the information provided by the pressure transducer, the gravimeter is sensitive to the flow dynamics in a different sector of the cave due to the choice of its location; this configuration helps to better constrain the hydraulic model. Moreover, we find that the autogenic recharge by percolating water can significantly affect the gravity time-series and must be considered in related models. By inclusion of both the hydraulic model outcomes and of the modelling of the autogenic recharge, we are able to better explain the gravity transients during the two smaller magnitude events. In particular, during such events the autogenic contribution produces a transient gravity signal, which is about 4 times larger than the allogenic one, while during the largest flood the allogenic contribution drastically overcomes the autogenic effect by a factor 20. By discussing this case, we prove the potential of terrestrial gravity observation to depict the hydro-dynamics of these complex karstic systems as well as the potential of gravimetry to remotely monitor these storage units.

Description: Published

Description: 130453

Description: JCR Journal

Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. All rights reserved.

Description: We report on about 20 yr of relative gravity measurements, acquired on Mt. Somma–Vesuvius volcano in order to investigate the hydrological and volcano-tectonic processes controlling the present-day activity of the volcano. The retrieved long-term field of time gravity change (2003–2022) shows a pattern essentially related to the subsidence, which have affected the central part of the volcano, as detected by the permanent GNSS network and InSAR data. After reducing the observations for the effect of vertical deformation, no significant residuals are found, indicating no significant mass accumulation or loss within the volcanic system. In the north-western sector of the study area, at the border of the volcano edifice, however, significant residual positive gravity changes are detected which are associated to ground-water rebound after years of intense exploitation of the aquifers. On the seasonal timescale, we find that stations within the caldera rim are affected by the seasonal hydrological effects, while the gravity stations at the base of the Vesuvius show a less clear correlation. Furthermore, within the caldera rim a multiyear gravity transient is detected with an increase phase lasting about 4 yr followed by a slower decrease phase. Analysis of rain data seem to exclude a hydrological origin, hence, we hypothesize a deeper source related to the geothermal activity, which can be present even if the volcano is in a quiescent state. We infer the depth and volume of the source by inverting the spatial pattern of the gravity field at the peak of the transient. A volume of fluids of 9.5 × 107 m3 with density of 1000 kg m−3 at 2.3 km depth is capable to fit reasonably well the observations. To explain the gravity transient, simple synthetic models are produced, that simulate the ascent of fluids from a deep reservoir up to the depth of 2.3 km and a successive diffusion within the carbonate aquifer hosting the geothermal system. The whole process appears to not significantly affect the seismicity rate and the deformation of the volcano. This study demonstrates the importance of a 4-D gravity monitoring of a volcano to understand its complex gravity signals that cover different spatial and temporal scales. Discriminating the different contributions that mix up in the observed gravity changes, in particular those due to hydrologic/anthropogenic activities form those due to the geothermal dynamics, is fundamental for a complete and reliable evaluation of the volcano state.

Description: Published

Description: 1565–1580

Description: OSV2: Complessità dei processi vulcanici: approcci multidisciplinari e multiparametrici

Description: JCR Journal

Description: The 28th September 2018 Sulawesi Supershear earthquake (MW 7.5) was one of the deadliest earthquakes in the recent history of Indonesia causing ∼4000 causalities. The earthquake caused a ∼ 177 km long surface rupture along the Palu-Karo fault. Apart from surface rupture, the earthquake caused extensive earthquake environmental effects (EEEs) around the Palu-Donggala area of Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, which includes tsunami, coastal landslide, liquefaction, ground cracks and more than 7300 landslides in hilly areas. Initial post-event analysis and reports assigned a Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) of VII to VIII in Palu City and the surrounding area. Building damage and ground effects caused by the earthquake suggested that seismic intensity was understated. Here we applied the EEEs information from field survey data, published reports, and remote sensing tools to determine macroseismic intensity using the Environmental Seismic Intensity (ESI-07) Scale. The ESI-07 intensity derived from the ground effects suggests the maximum intensity of X-XI, which is 3–4° higher than the traditional intensity estimated by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics (BMKG). ShakeMaps were generated considering the ESI-07 values. The ShakeMap was compared with the instrumentally derived ShakeMap for the Palu earthquake, which proves that the ShakeMap prepared from the instrumental data or structural damage data is underrated. We argue that proper documentation of the EEEs is necessary for such damaging earthquakes for future earthquake hazard mapping and planning in the study area and other earthquakes in Indonesia. In addition, this will help in defining the on-fault and off-fault damage zone towards reducing the seismic risk of the Palu Donggala area.

Description: Published

Description: 107054

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Highlights • Investigation into the potential of Porites microatolls for SST reconstruction. • Comparison between recent and more conventional coral paleoclimatology methods. • Application of Srsingle bondU and Li/Mg paleothermometer. • Accuracy and reproducibility of Sr/Ca proved to be the most suitable proxy for SST reconstruction. Abstract Massive dome-shaped coral Porites are the predominant choice for paleoclimate studies due to their consistent and reliable growth. When growing close to sea level, they become limited in their vertical growth and form so-called ‘microatolls’. Microatolls have not yet been extensively explored for paleoclimate reconstruction. Here, we investigate how reliable modern Porites microatolls are against empirical sea-surface temperature using Sr/Ca, δ18O, Li/Mg and Srsingle bondU paleothermometry methods on samples from the Society Islands, French Polynesia. Our results show Sr/Ca ratios have the lowest Standard Error of the Inverse Prediction (SEIP) at 0.415 °C (N = 41) with a calibration of Sr/Ca (mmol mol−1) = −0.082 ± 0.006 SST (°C) + 11.256 ± 0.170 and with high reproducibility across multiple corals. The reproducibility of δ18O was less good, with SEIP increasing to 0.829 °C (N = 41). Considering methods directly from the literature, Li/Mg ratio empirically corrected for Sr/Ca had the best balance between bias and precision where no local calibration could be available. This study independently evaluates and confirms the suitability of Porites microatolls from well-flushed environments for paleoclimate studies. Fossil dome-shaped Porites grow anywhere between near-surface and roughly 20 m depths which inherently incorporates uncertainty into any sea surface temperature reconstruction. This uncertainty is significantly reduced for microatolls due to their well-constrained bathymetry. The study represents a fundamental step in paleoclimate research targeting consistently near the water-air interface bringing reliability and, especially when combined with their ability to reconstruct past sea-level changes, microatolls have the potential to be central for future paleoenvironmental studies.

Description: Since net-zero greenhouse gas emissions targets have become a keystone of European and German climate policy, a debate about the need to actively remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere in addition to drastically reducing emissions has emerged. Although still relatively scarce, empirical studies on the emergence of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) on the political agenda have shown that variations in the constellations and positions of policy-relevant actors play a key role in shaping patterns of CDR policymaking. The German and wider European Union (EU) CDR policy space is emergent, and political actors are just beginning to position themselves. Building on our previous work which established a typology of CDR policy integration patterns and developed a discourse analytical framework for mapping CDR-policy-relevant speaker positions, we present the first fine-grained empirical reconstruction of CDR-policy-relevant actors and their positions in the German context. Our analytical approach aims to improve understanding of patterns in CDR policymaking by showing that on the EU, national, and subnational levels, a multitude of institutional actors may adopt differing positions as the CDR policy space evolves. In addition to identifying fine-grained ‘ideal types’ of positions that policy actors may adopt in the formative phase of German CDR policy, our analysis provides an empirical ‘map’ of CDR policy-relevant actors and explores hypotheses about emerging discourse coalitions and potential conflict cleavages.