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  • 1
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    Radar‐based heavy precipitation events in Germany and associated circulation patterns (2023)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-22
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉As projected by multiple climate models, short‐duration heavy precipitation events (SDHPEs) are expected to intensify particularly quickly under the changing climate posing substantial risk to natural and human systems. Yet over the years, SDHPEs have received less scientific attention than long‐duration heavy precipitation events (LDHPEs), mainly due to the limitations of measurement systems. Our aim is to provide insight into spatial and temporal variability of SDHPEs detected by the radar network of the 〈italic toggle="no"〉Deutscher Wetterdienst〈/italic〉 (DWD) in Germany from 2001 to 2020 as well as to explore their links to circulation patterns (CPs). The study is based on the Catalogue of Radar‐based heavy Rainfall Events (CatRaRE) generated using reprocessed gauge‐adjusted data of the DWD radar network as well as a new numerical method for classifying CPs over Central Europe called “〈italic toggle="no"〉Großwetterlagen〈/italic〉 for Reanalyses” (GWL‐REA). The results have demonstrated that SDHPEs, which are defined based on either locally valid precipitation values with a return period of 5 years (CatRaRE T5) or absolute precipitation values equal to DWD Warning Level 3 (CatRaRE W3), are common phenomena occurring most frequently in the afternoon hours of the summer season. They constitute up to 90% of all heavy precipitation events included in the catalogues covering relatively small areas—the median area of SDHPEs ranges from 22 km〈sup〉2〈/sup〉 (CatRaRE T5) to 24 km〈sup〉2〈/sup〉 (CatRaRE W3), while the median area of LDHPEs ranges from 175 km〈sup〉2〈/sup〉 (CatRaRE W3) to 184 km〈sup〉2〈/sup〉 (CatRaRE T5). As compared to LDHPEs, SDHPEs are generated by a wider spectrum of circulation conditions, including not only cyclonic but also anticyclonic CPs. In the warm season, the anticyclonic CPs, often accompanied by air mass advection from the south, can induce high thermal instability leading to the development of relatively small, isolated convective cells, which often cannot be captured by rain gauge stations.〈/p〉
    Description: Federal Ministry for Digital and Transport (BMDV)
    Description: https://www.dwd.de/DE/leistungen/catrare/catrare.html
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; CatRaRE ; circulation patterns ; GWL‐REA ; heavy precipitation events ; long‐duration precipitation ; radar data ; short‐duration precipitation
    Language: English
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  • 2
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    Hydrodynamic modeling of ephemeral flow in the Iishana channel systems of the Cuvelai Basin—Northern Namibia (2023)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-04-19
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉The transboundary region of the Iishana system in the western Cuvelai Basin, between southern Angola and northern Namibia, is frequently affected by floods at irregular intervals. As a result, the predominantly rural, subsistence farming population has experienced crop failures, human, and economic losses. To date, very little is known about the generation of floods, flood concentration, and stormwater drainage dynamics in this region. In this study, 2D‐hydrodynamic modeling was applied to reconstruct one of the latest major flood events during the rainy season from November 2008 to March 2009 in order to study the runoff behavior and interconnectivity of the Iishana system. The model focused on the eastern part of the Iishana system, which was most affected by floods and flood damage due to the high population density in and around Oshakati, the regional capital. Two main streams were identified noteworthy because they merge and subsequently affect Oshakati. Regarding the simulated flood event water depths vary from 0.1 m to 14 m, with an average of 0.2 m, while water depths above 5 m were attributed to borrow pits. The inundation area ranged up to 1860 km〈sup〉2〈/sup〉 and the amount of water left after the rainy season on March 25th, 2009, was determined between 0.116 and 0.547 km〈sup〉3〈/sup〉, depending on the amount of evapotranspiration considered in the model. Thus, in the Angolan part of the Iishana system, significantly larger quantities of water are available for longer periods of time during the subsequent dry season, whereas the system in Namibia stores less water, resulting in a shorter water retention period.〈/p〉
    Description: Deutsche Hydrologische Gesellschaft (DHG)
    Description: Freie Universität Berlin http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100007537
    Description: https://dx.doi.org/10.17169/refubium-35737
    Keywords: ddc:551.48 ; flood ; FloodArea11 ; SCS‐CN ; TanDEM‐X ; TRMM
    Language: English
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  • 3
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    Modelling wind speed across Zambia: Implications for wind energy (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-03-25
    Description: Wind energy is a key option in global dialogues about climate change mitigation. Here, we combined observations from surface wind stations, reanalysis datasets, and state‐of‐the‐art regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX Africa) to study the current and future wind energy potential in Zambia. We found that winds are dominated by southeasterlies and are rarely strong with an average speed of 2.8 m·s〈sup〉−1〈/sup〉. When we converted the observed surface wind speed to a turbine hub height of 100 m, we found a ~38% increase in mean wind speed for the period 1981–2000. Further, both simulated and observed wind speed data show statistically significant increments across much of the country. The only areas that divert from this upward trend of wind speeds are the low land terrains of the Eastern Province bordering Malawi. Examining projections of wind power density (WPD), we found that although wind speed is increasing, it is still generally too weak to support large‐scale wind power generation. We found a meagre projected annual average WPD of 46.6 W·m〈sup〉−2〈/sup〉. The highest WPDs of ~80 W·m−2 are projected in the northern and central parts of the country while the lowest are to be expected along the Luangwa valley in agreement with wind speed simulations. On average, Zambia is expected to experience minor WPD increments of 0.004 W·m〈sup〉−2〈/sup〉 per year from 2031 to 2050. We conclude that small‐scale wind turbines that accommodate cut‐in wind speeds of 3.8 m·s〈sup〉−1〈/sup〉 are the most suitable for power generation in Zambia. Further, given the limitations of small wind turbines, they are best suited for rural and suburban areas of the country where obstructions are few, thus making them ideal for complementing the government of the Republic of Zambia's rural electrification efforts.
    Description: Wind speed is very slow in Zambia. It is increasing but remains unlikely to support large commercial wind farms especially not at the 100‐m hub height. Any efforts for wind power generation in Zambia should be towards ultra‐tall wind turbines fitted with larger rotors.
    Description: Alexander von Humboldt‐Stiftung
    Keywords: ddc:333.9 ; CORDEX Africa ; renewable energy ; wind speed ; Zambia
    Language: English
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  • 4
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    Large‐eddy simulation of soil moisture heterogeneity‐induced secondary circulation with ambient winds (2023)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2024-03-05
    Description: Land surface heterogeneity in conjunction with ambient winds influences the convective atmospheric boundary layer by affecting the distribution of incoming solar radiation and forming secondary circulations. This study performed coupled large‐eddy simulation (ICON‐LEM) with a land surface model (TERRA‐ML) over a flat river corridor mimicked by soil moisture heterogeneity to investigate the impact of ambient winds on secondary circulations. The coupled model employed double‐periodic boundary conditions with a spatial scale of 4.8 km. All simulations used the same idealized initial atmospheric conditions with constant incident radiation of 700 W⋅m〈sup〉−2〈/sup〉 and various ambient winds with different speeds (0 to 16 m⋅s〈sup〉−1〈/sup〉) and directions (e.g., cross‐river, parallel‐river, and mixed). The atmospheric states are decomposed into ensemble‐averaged, mesoscale, and turbulence. The results show that the secondary circulation structure persists under the parallel‐river wind conditions independently of the wind speed but is destroyed when the cross‐river wind is stronger than 2 m⋅s〈sup〉−1〈/sup〉. The soil moisture and wind speed determine the influence on the surface energy distribution independent of the wind direction. However, secondary circulations increase advection and dispersive heat flux while decreasing turbulent energy flux. The vertical profiles of the wind variance reflect the secondary circulation, and the maximum value of the mesoscale vertical wind variance indicates the secondary circulation strength. The secondary circulation strength positively scales with the Bowen ratio, stability parameter (−Z〈sub〉i〈/sub〉/L), and thermal heterogeneity parameter under cross‐river wind and mixed wind conditions. The proposed similarity analyses and scaling approach provide a new quantitative perspective on the impact of the ambient wind under heteronomous soil moisture conditions on secondary circulation.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: ddc:551.5 ; ambient winds ; Bowen ratio ; land surface model ; large‐eddy simulation ; moisture spatial heterogeneity ; secondary circulation ; similarity theory ; turbulence
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    How certain are El Niño–Southern Oscillation frequency changes in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models? (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-06
    Description: El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most important modes of climate variability on interannual timescales. We aim to find out whether a change in ENSO frequency can be predicted for the nearer future. We analyse the unforced pre‐industrial control run and the forced 1%/year CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 increase run for an ensemble of 43 general circulation models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We assume that the uncertainty of ENSO frequency trend estimates from an ensemble is caused by apparent trends as well as model differences. The part of the uncertainty caused by apparent trends is estimated from the pre‐industrial control simulations. As a measure for ENSO frequency, we use the number of El Niño‐ and La Niña‐like months in a moving 30‐year time window. Its linear decadal trend is calculated for every member. The multimember mean of the trend for both experiments is less than 0.7 events per decade. Given that the standard error is of the same order of magnitude, we consider this a negligible trend. The uncertainties are large in both experiments and we can attribute most of the intermember variability to apparent trends due to natural variability rather than different model reactions to CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 forcing. This means that the impact of intermodel differences might have been overstated in previous studies. Apparent trends make it very difficult to make reliable predictions of changes in ENSO frequency based on 120‐year time series.
    Description: The 1pctCO2 and piControl ensembles from CMIP6 are analysed for 43 models with a focus on changes in ENSO frequency. We find that most of the intermember variability can be attributed to natural variability instead of model differences. Therefore, the uncertainty can only marginally be reduced and it is very difficult to reliably predict changes in ENSO frequency on a timescale of 150 years.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6841964
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; climate change ; CMIP6 ; ENSO ; ENSO frequency
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    Projected changes in synoptic circulations over Europe and their implications for summer precipitation: A CMIP6 perspective (2023)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2024-01-30
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Projected changes in summer precipitation deficits partly depend on alterations in synoptic circulations. Here, the automated Jenkinson–Collison classification is used to assess the ability of 21 global climate models (GCMs) to capture the frequency of recurring circulation types (CTs) and their implications for European daily precipitation amounts in summer (JJA). The ability of the GCMs to reproduce the observed present‐day climate features is evaluated first. Most GCMs capture the observed links between the mean CTs directional flow characteristics and the occurrence of dry days and related dry months. The most robust relationships are found for anticyclonic and easterly CTs which are generally associated with higher‐than‐average occurrences of dry conditions. Future changes in summer CTs' frequencies are estimated in the high‐emission SSP5‐8.5 scenario for the sake of a high signal‐to‐noise ratio. Our results reveal consistent changes, mainly in the zonal CTs. A robust decrease in frequency of the westerlies and an increase in the frequency of easterly CTs favour more continental, dry and warm air masses over central Europe. These dynamical changes are shown to enhance the projected summer drying over central and southern Europe.〈/p〉
    Description: 〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Summer large‐scale circulations are derived over Europe using an automated classification. Spatial characteristics of the patterns and their influence on dry days are investigated. Future changes are explored based on global climate models. The predicted drier summers in Europe are found to be influenced by consistent changes in west‐easterly circulations.〈boxed-text position="anchor" content-type="graphic" id="joc8033-blkfxd-0001" xml:lang="en"〉 〈graphic position="anchor" id="jats-graphic-1" xlink:href="urn:x-wiley:08998418:media:joc8033:joc8033-toc-0001"〉 〈/graphic〉 〈/boxed-text〉〈/p〉
    Description: EU International Training Network (ITN) Climate Advanced Forecasting of sub‐seasonal Extremes (CAFE)
    Description: H2020 Marie Skłodowska‐Curie Actions
    Description: https://github.com/PedroLormendez/jcclass
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; circulation patterns ; climate change ; precipitation ; weather extremes
    Language: English
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  • 7
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    A multi‐parameter approach to quantify riverbed clogging and vertical hyporheic connectivity (2023)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2024-01-26
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Riverbed clogging is key to assessing vertical connectivity in the hyporheic zone and is often quantified using single‐parameter or qualitative approaches. However, clogging is driven by multiple, interacting physical and bio‐geochemical parameters, which do not allow for a conclusive assessment of hyporheic connectivity with single‐parameter approaches. In addition, existing qualitative assessments lack transparency and repeatability. This study introduces a Multi‐Parameter Approach to quantify Clogging and vertical hyporheic connectivity (MultiPAC), which builds on standardized measurements of physical (grain size characteristics, porosity, hydraulic conductivity) and bio‐geochemical (interstitial dissolved oxygen) parameters. We apply MultiPAC at three gravel‐bed rivers and show how the set of parameters provides a representative appreciation of physical riverbed clogging, thus quantifying vertical hyporheic connectivity. However, more parameters are required to fully characterize biological clogging. In addition, MultiPAC locates clogged layers in the hyporheic zone through multi‐parameter vertical profiles over the riverbed depth. The discussion outlines the relevance of MultiPAC to guide field surveys.〈/p〉
    Description: https://github.com/Ecohydraulics/kf-converter-w-flopy
    Keywords: ddc:550.724 ; colmation ; dissolved oxygen ; grain size ; hydraulic conductivity ; porosity ; siltation
    Language: English
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  • 8
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    Added value of an atmospheric circulation pattern‐based statistical downscaling approach for daily precipitation distributions in complex terrain (2023)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2024-01-24
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Reliable prediction of heavy precipitation events causing floods in a world of changing climate is crucial for the development of appropriate adaption strategies. Many attempts to provide such predictions have already been conducted but there is still much potential for improvement left. This is particularly true for statistical downscaling of heavy precipitation due to changes present in the corresponding atmospheric drivers. In this study, a circulation pattern (CP) conditional downscaling to the station level is proposed which considers occurring frequency changes of CPs. Following a strict circulation‐to‐environment approach we use atmospheric predictors to derive CPs. Subsequently, precipitation observations are used to derive CP conditional cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of daily precipitation. Raw precipitation time series are sampled from these CDFs. Bias correction is applied to the sampled time series with quantile mapping (QM) and parametric transfer functions (PTFs) as methods being tested. The added value of this CP conditional downscaling approach is evaluated against the corresponding common non‐CP conditional approach. The performance evaluation is conducted by using Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) metrics. In both cases the applied bias correction is identical. Potential added value can therefore only be attributed to the CP conditioning. It can be shown that the proposed CP conditional downscaling approach is capable of yielding more reliable and accurate downscaled daily precipitation time series in comparison to a non‐CP conditional approach. This can be seen in particular for the extreme parts of the distribution. Above the 95th percentile, an average performance gain of +0.24 and a maximum gain of +0.6 in terms of KGE is observed. These findings support the assumption of conserving and utilizing atmospheric information through CPs can be beneficial for more reliable statistical precipitation downscaling. Due to the availability of these atmospheric predictors in climate model output, the presented method is potentially suitable for downscaling precipitation projections.〈/p〉
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/reanalysis-era5-pressure-levels?tab=overview
    Description: https://cdc.dwd.de/portal/
    Keywords: ddc:551.5 ; bias correction ; circulation patterns ; ERA5 ; extreme events ; heavy precipitation ; simulated annealing ; statistical downscaling
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    Using hydro‐morphological assessment parameters to estimate the flood‐induced vulnerability of watercourses ‐ a methodological approach across three spatial scales in Germany and the Czech Republic (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-22
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉In addition to their ecological importance, rivers and streams have always been used in diverse ways by humans, resulting in the development of settlements and their connected built environments along many of the world's watercourses. During heavy rainfall, buildings, traffic infrastructure and water‐related infrastructure are exposed to potential hazards in the form of (flash) floods. In contrast to near‐natural watercourses, anthropogenically modified channels in urban areas are particularly susceptible to damage by flooding. Previous damage assessments have highlighted the need to forecast such damage to watercourses in order to identify critical areas and justify the selection and expansion of adaptation measures. Within the scope of the current study, we have developed a method based on the hydro‐morphological properties of watercourses to make transferable estimates of the economic damage potential based on ecologically‐relevant parameters. Using a scale‐specific cause‐effect analysis, we have identified characteristics of the watercourse type and adjacent structures as well as construction‐related properties of reinforcements that can increase the damage potential during flooding. In this way, we are able to show that several influencing factors determine the vulnerability of watercourses: in addition to the specific longitudinal gradient and size (macroscale) of various watercourse types, damage‐relevant boundary conditions in watercourse sections (mesoscale) and the resistance of typical bed and bank constructions are also important, reflecting the specific structural conditions. Taking rivers in Germany and the Czech Republic as case studies, in the following, we review the local identification of critical areas and describe the necessary data management. The presented “Hydro‐morphological based Vulnerability Assessment‐Concept (HyVAC)” can contribute to the flood damage prevention at watercourses by utilizing existing basic data to the greatest possible extent and thus is suitable for preliminary investigations according to the EC Flood Risk Management Directive.〈/p〉
    Description: STRIMA II
    Description: EU‐funded research project
    Keywords: ddc:551.48 ; assessment parameters ; flood risk management ; hydro‐morphology ; vulnerability ; watercourses
    Language: English
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  • 10
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    Understanding summer wind systems over the eastern Mediterranean in a high‐resolution climate simulation (2022)
    Latt, Melissa R. ; Hochman, Assaf ; Caldas‐Alvarez, Alberto ; [et al.]
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-12
    Description: Regional and local wind systems are often complex, particularly near coastal areas with a highly variable orography. Thus, the realistic representation of regional wind systems in weather and climate models is of strong relevance. Here, we evaluate the ability of a 13‐year convection‐permitting climate simulation in reproducing the interaction of several regional summer wind systems over the complex orography in the eastern Mediterranean region. The COSMO‐CLM simulations are driven by hourly ERA‐5 reanalysis and have a spatial resolution of 2.8 and 7.0 km. The simulated near‐surface wind fields are compared with unique very high‐resolution wind observations collected within the “Dead Sea Research Venue” project (DESERVE) and data from the Israel Meteorological Service synop network. The high‐resolution COSMO‐CLM simulations largely reproduce the main characteristics of the regional wind systems (Mediterranean and Dead Sea breeze, slope winds in the Judean Mountains and winds along the Jordan Rift valley), whereas ERA‐5 is only able to represent the Mediterranean Sea breeze. The high‐resolution simulations substantially improve the representation of regional winds, particularly over complex orography. Indeed, the 2.8 km simulation outperforms the 7.0 km run, on 88% of the days. Two mid‐July 2015 case studies show that only the 2.8 simulation can realistically simulate the penetration of the Mediterranean Sea Breeze into the Jordan Rift valley and complex interactions with other wind systems like the Dead Sea breeze. Our results may have profound implications for regional weather and climate prediction since very high‐resolution information seems to be necessary to reproduce the main summertime climatic features in this region. We envisage that such simulations may also be required at other regions with complex orography.
    Description: In this paper we show that COSMO‐CLM regional climate model simulations at 7.0 (CLM‐7.0) and 2.8km (CLM‐2.8) resolution can realistically reproduce near‐surface regional and local wind systems over the complex orography of the eastern Mediterranean as opposite to coarser resolutions (ERA‐5, 31 km). The Mediterranean and local Dead Sea breezes, slope winds over the Judean Mountains, and winds along the Jordan Rift valley are well represented both climatologically and on individual days. CLM‐2.8 captures the small‐scale variability of the wind field better than CLM‐7.0 particularly near the Dead Sea and on 88% of the days CLM‐2.8 represents wind speed even more realistically than CLM‐7.0. image
    Description: German Helmholtz Association (“Changing Earth” program)
    Description: AXA Research Fund http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001961
    Description: Ministry of Science, Research and Arts
    Description: Helmholtz Association of German Research Centers
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; complex orography ; convection permitting ; COSMO‐CLM ; Dead Sea ; eastern Mediterranean ; grid spacing ; regional climate modelling ; sea breeze
    Language: English
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