ALBERT

Note: Inhalt Vorwort Arktis und Antarktis – Naturräume in Poleposition Eine kurze Geschichte der Polarregionen Der Mensch erobert die Polargebiete Conclusio: Arktis und Antarktis – zwei grundverschiedene Polargebiete Die Polargebiete als Teil des globalen Klimasystems Warum es in den Polarregionen so kalt wird Eisschollen, Eisschilde und das Meer Conclusio: Eine Kettenreaktion mit frostigem Ende Die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf die Polarregionen Die Pfade der Wärme Der Rückzug des Eises Conclusio: Mehr Wärme – viel weniger Eis Die Flora und Fauna der Polarregionen Ein Leben in der Kälte Das Leben im Meer Polare Ökosysteme auf dem Rückzug Conclusio: Hochspezialisiert und extrem gefährdet Politik und Wirtschaft in den Polarregionen Die Arktis und die Antarktis als politische Arenen Ein Wirtschaftsaufschwung mit Nebenwirkungen Conclusio: Wachsendes Interesse an den Polarregionen Gesamt-Conclusio Glossar Abkürzungen Quellenverzeichnis Mitwirkende Index Partner und Danksagung Abbildungsverzeichnis Impressum

Note: Contents Preface The Arctic and Antarctic – natural realms at the poles A brief history of the polar regions The human conquest of the polar regions Conclusion: The Arctic and Antarctic – two fundamentally different polar regions The polar regions as components of the global climate system Why it is so cold in the polar regions Ice floes, ice sheets and the sea Conclusion: A chain reaction with an icy end Climate change impacts in the polar regions The pathways of heat Retreating ice Conclusion: More heat – much less ice Polar flora and fauna Living in the cold Marine life Polar ecosystems in retreat Conclusion: Highly specialized and greatly threatened Polar politics and commerce The Arctic and Antarctic as political arenas An economic boom with side effects Conclusion: Growing interest in the polar regions Overall Conclusion Glossary Abbreviations Bibliography Contributors Index Partners and Acknowledgements Table of figures Publication details

Note: Contents: TITLE PAGE -- COPYRIGHT PAGE -- CONTENTS -- CONTRIBUTORS -- PREFACE -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- PART I FORCINGS OF CLIMATE EXTREMES -- CHAPTER 1 THE CHANGING EL NIÑO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION AND ASSOCIATED CLIMATE EXTREMES -- 1.1. INTRODUCTION -- 1.2. CHANGES IN ENSO PROPERTIES -- 1.3. CHANGES IN ENSO DYNAMICS -- 1.4. CHANGES IN ENSO TELECONNECTIONS AND ASSOCIATED CLIMATE EXTREMES -- 1.5. ENSO IN THE FUTURE -- 1.6. SUMMARY -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 2 WEATHER EXTREMES LINKED TO INTERACTION OF THE ARCTIC AND MIDLATITUDES -- 2.1. INTRODUCTION -- 2.2. ARCTIC EFFECTS ON MIDLATITUDE EXTREMES -- 2.3. MIDLATITUDE EFFECTS ON ARCTIC EXTREMES -- 2.4. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 3 IMPACT OF AEROSOLS ON REGIONAL CHANGES IN CLIMATE EXTREMES -- 3.1. INTRODUCTION -- 3.2. DIRECT AND INDIRECT EFFECTS OF AEROSOLS ON CLOUDS AND RADIATION -- 3.3. AEROSOL IMPACT ON REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE -- 3.4. Mitigation scenarios for aerosol emissions -- 3.5. AEROSOL EFFECT ON TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION EXTREMES -- 3.6. FUTURE RESEARCH NEEDS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 4 WEAKENED FLOW, PERSISTENT CIRCULATION, AND PROLONGED WEATHER EXTREMES IN BOREAL SUMMER -- 4.1. INTRODUCTION -- 4.2. RESONANT CIRCULATION REGIMES -- 4.3. REAL EVENTS -- 4.4. CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 5 LAND PROCESSES AS THE FORCING OF EXTREMES: A REVIEW -- 5.1. INTRODUCTION -- 5.2. FORCINGS OF LAND PROCESSES ON CLIMATE EXTREMES -- 5.3. SUMMARY -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- PART II PROCESSES OF CLIMATE EXTREMES -- CHAPTER 6 TIMING OF ANTHROPOGENIC EMERGENCE IN CLIMATE EXTREMES -- 6.1. INTRODUCTION -- 6.2. DEFINING TIME OF EMERGENCE -- 6.3. DATA AND METHODS -- 6.4. RESULTS -- 6.5. DISCUSSION -- 6.6. CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES CHAPTER 7 RECENT INCREASES IN EXTREME TEMPERATURE OCCURRENCE OVER LAND -- 7.1. INTRODUCTION -- 7.2. DATA AND METHODOLOGY -- 7.3. RESULTS -- 7.4. CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 8 WHY FUTURE SHIFTS IN TROPICAL PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE SMALL: THE LOCATION OF THE TROPICAL RAIN BELT AND THE HEMISPHERIC CONTRAST OF ENERGY INPUT TO THE ATMOSPHERE -- 8.1. INTRODUCTION -- 8.2. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ITCZ POSITION AND HEMISPHERIC CONTRAST OF ATMOSPHERIC HEATING -- 8.3. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE SEASONAL CYCLE OF ITCZ MIGRATION AND THE ANNUAL MEAN PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION -- 8.4. IMPLICATIONS FOR FUTURE ITCZ SHIFTS UNDER GLOBAL WARMING -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 9 WEATHER-CLIMATE INTERACTIONS AND MJO INFLUENCES -- 9.1. INTRODUCTION -- 9.2. THE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE MJO, BACKGROUND STATE, AND SYNOPTIC WEATHER -- 9.3. A CASE STUDY ON INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION AND EL NIÑO -- 9.4. INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE MJO AND BREAKING WAVES -- 9.5. INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE MJO, TROPICAL CYCLONES, AND THE EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION -- 9.6. SUMMARY -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 10 RECENT CLIMATE EXTREMES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEST PACIFIC WARMING MODE -- 10.1. INTRODUCTION -- 10.2. BACKGROUND -- 10.3. DATA AND METHODS -- 10.4. SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 11 CONNECTIONS BETWEEN HEAT WAVES AND CIRCUMGLOBAL TELECONNECTION PATTERNS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SUMMER -- 11.1. INTRODUCTION -- 11.2. DATA AND METHODS -- 11.3. DISTRIBUTION OF HEAT WAVES -- 11.4. PLANETARY WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAT WAVES -- 11.5. SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- PART III REGIONAL CLIMATE EXTREMES -- CHAPTER 12 NORTH AMERICAN DROUGHT AND LINKS TO NORTHERN EURASIA: THE ROLE OF STATIONARY ROSSBY WAVES -- 12.1. INTRODUCTION -- 12.2. REANALYSIS DATA AND THE GEOS-5 AGCM EXPERIMENTS -- 12.3. RESULTS -- 12.4. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 13 THE CALIFORNIA DROUGHT: TRENDS AND IMPACTS -- 13.1. INTRODUCTION -- 13.2. THE PROLONGED DROUGHT OF 2012-2016 -- 13.3. ROLE OF ENSO CYCLE -- 13.4. ARCTIC INFLUENCES -- 13.5. DROUGHT IMPACTS ON CALIFORNIA -- 13.6. CONCLUDING REMARKS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 14 OBSERVED TRENDS IN US TORNADO FREQUENCY -- 14.1. INTRODUCTION -- 14.2. STORM DATA TORNADO DATABASE -- 14.3. US TORNADO CLIMATOLOGY -- 14.4. CHANGES IN US TORNADO STATISTICS -- 14.5. CONCLUDING REMARKS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 15 MECHANISMS EXPLAINING RECENT CHANGES IN AUSTRALIAN CLIMATE EXTREMES -- 15.1. INTRODUCTION -- 15.2. AUSTRALIAN RAINFALL EXTREMES OF 2010-2012 -- 15.3. AUSTRALIA'S TEMPERATURE EXTREMES OF 2013 -- 15.4. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 16 UNRAVELING EAST AFRICA'S CLIMATE PARADOX -- 16.1. INTRODUCTION -- 16.2. THE NATURE OF THE RECENT EAST AFRICAN LONG RAINS DECLINE -- 16.3. LINKS TO PACIFIC DECADAL VARIABILITY -- 16.4. PHYSICAL CONSIDERATIONS -- 16.5. CLIMATE MODEL SIMULATIONS OF EAST AFRICAN CLIMATE -- 16.6. CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 17 A PHYSICAL MODEL FOR EXTREME DROUGHT OVER SOUTHWEST ASIA -- 17.1. INTRODUCTION -- 17.2. PRECIPITATION PATTERNS -- 17.3. SST RELATIONSHIPS -- 17.4. ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTIONS -- 17.5. SUMMARY -- APPENDIX: DATA -- REFERENCES -- PART IV PREDICTION OF CLIMATE EXTREMES -- CHAPTER 18 EXTRATROPICAL PRECURSORS OF THE EL NIÑO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION -- 18.1. INTRODUCTION -- 18.2. OVERVIEW OF PRECURSORS AND THEIR IMPACT ON ENSO -- 18.3. DATA AND DEFINITIONS -- 18.4. EVALUATION OF PRECURSOR VARIABILITY AND COVARIABILITY -- 18.5. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PRECURSORS AND ENSO -- 18.6. DIAGNOSING PRECURSORS AS ENSO PREDICTORS -- 18.7. RELATIONSHIP OF EXTRATROPICAL PRECURSORS TO 2014 AND 2015 EL NIñO -- 18.8. SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 19 NORTH ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE PREDICTION: UNDERLYING SCIENCE AND AN EVALUATION OF STATISTICAL MODELS -- 19.1. INTRODUCTION -- 19.2. STATISTICALLY BASED SEASONAL HURRICANE OUTLOOK MODELS -- 19.3. CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 20 PREDICTING SUBSEASONAL PRECIPITATION VARIATIONS BASED ON THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION -- 20.1. INTRODUCTION -- 20.2. THE MJO INFLUENCE ON THE VARIABILITY OF PRECIPITATION -- 20.3. FORECASTING THE MJO -- 20.4. THE MJO AND PREDICTABILITY OF PRECIPITATION -- 20.5. CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 21 PREDICTION OF SHORT-TERM CLIMATE EXTREMES WITH A MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE -- 21.1. INTRODUCTION -- 21.2. PREDICTION SKILL -- 21.3. PREDICTABILITY -- 21.4. SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 22 TOWARD PREDICTING US TORNADOES IN THE LATE 21ST CENTURY -- 22.1. PROJECTING CHANGES IN US TORNADO ACTIVITY USING ENVIRONMENTAL PROXIES -- 22.2. SHORT-TERM TORNADO PREDICTION USING HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND APPLICATIONS TO DYNAMICAL DOWNSCALING -- 22.3. CONCLUDING REMARKS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- INDEX

Note: Contents: Contributors. - Preface. - Acknowledgements. - PART I SETTING THE SCENE. - 1. Introduction: Why Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (S2S)? / Frédéric Vitart, Andrew W. Robertson. - 1 History of Numerical Weather and Climate Forecasting. - 2 Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Forecasting. - 3 Recent National and International Efforts on Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction. - 4 Structure of This Book. - 2. Weather Forecasting: What Sets the Forecast Skill Horizon? / Zoltan Toth, Roberto Buizza. - 1 Introduction. - 2 The Basics of Numerical Weather Prediction. - 3 The Evolution of NWP Technique. - 4 Enhancement of Predictable signals. - 5 Ensemble Techniques: Brief Introduction. - 6 Expanding the forecast skill Horizon. - 7 Concludmg Remarks: Lessons for S2S Forecasting. - Acknowledgements. - 3. Weather Within Climate: Sub-seasonal Predictability of Tropical Daily Rainfall Characteristics / Vincent Moron, Andrew W. Robertson, Lei Wang. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Data and Methods. - 3 Results. - 4 Discussion and Concluding Remarks. - 4. Identifying Wave Processes Associated With Predictability Across Time Scales: An Empirical Normal Mode Approach / Gilbert Brunet, John Methven. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Partitioning Atmospheric Behavior Using Its Conservation Properties. - 3 The ENM Approach to Observed Data and Models and Its Relevance to S2S Dynamics and Predictability. - 4 Conclusion. - Acknowledgments. - PART II SOURCES OF S2S PREDICTABILITY. - 5. The Madden-Julian Oscillation / Steven J. Woolnough. - 1 Introduction. - 2 The Real-Time Multivariate MJO Index. - 3 Observed MJO Structure. - 4 The Relationship Between the MJO and Tropical and Extratropical Weather. - 5 Theories and Mechanisms for MJO Initiation, Maintenance, and Propagation. - 6 The Representation of the MJO in Weather and Climate Models. - 7 MJO Prediction. - 8 Future Priorities for MJO Research for S2S Prediction. - Acknowledgments. - 6. Extratropical Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Oscillations and Multiple Regimes: The Dynamical Systems View / Michael Ghil, Andreas Groth, Dmitri Kondrashov, Andrew W. Robertson. - 1 Introduction and Motivation. - 2 Multiple Midlatitude Regimes and Low-Frequency Oscillations. - 3 Extratropical Oscillations in the S2S Band. - 4 Low-Order, Data-Driven Modeling, Dynamical Analysis, and Prediction. - 5 Concluding Remarks. - Acknowledgments. - 7. Tropical-Extratropical Interactions and Teleconnections / Hai Lin, Jorgen Frederiksen, David Straus, Christiana Stan. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Tropical Influence on the Extratropical Atmosphere. - 3 Extratropical Influence on the Tropics. - 4 Tropical-Extratropical, Two-Way Interactions. - 5 Summary and Discussion. - Appendix. Technical Matters Relating to Section 4.2. - 8. Land Surface Processes Relevant to Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction / Paul A. Dirmeyer, Pierre Gentine, Michael B. Ek, Gianpaolo Balsamo. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Process of Land-Atmosphere Interaction. - 3 A Brief History of Land-Surface Models. - 4 Predictability and Prediction. - 5 Improving Land-Driven Prediction. - 9. Midlatitude Mesoscale Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction and Its Relevance to S2S Prediction / R. Saravanan, P. Chang. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Data and Models. - 3 Mesoscale Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer. - 4 Local Tropospheric Response. - 5 Remote Tropospheric Response. - 6 Impact on Ocean Circulation. - 7 Implications for S2S Prediction. - 8 Summary and Conclusions. - Acknowledgments. - 10. The Role of Sea Ice in Sub-seasonal Predictability / Matthieu Chevallier, François Massonnet, Helge Goessling, Virginie Guémas, Thomas Jung. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Sea Ice in the Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean System. - 3 Sea Ice Distribution, Seasonality, and Variability. - 4 Sources of Sea Ice Predictability at the Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Timescale. - 5 Sea Ice Sub-seasonal to Seasonal - Predictability and Prediction Skill in Models. - 6 Impact of Sea Ice on Sub-seasonal Predictability. - 7 Concluding Remarks. - Acknowledgments. - 11. Sub-seasonal Predictability and the Stratosphere / Amy Butler, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Chaim Garfinkel, Edwin P. Gerber, Peter Hitchcock, Alexey Yu. Karpechko, Amanda C. Maycock, Michael Sigmond, Isla Simpson, Seok-Woo Son. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Stratosphere-Troposphere Coup ling in the Tropics. - 3 Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling in the Extratropics. - 4 Predictability Related to Extratropical Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling. - 5 Summary and Outlook. - PART Ill S2S MODELING AND FORECASTING. - 12. Forecast System Design, Configuration, and Complexity / Yuhei Takaya. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Requirements and Constraints of the Operational Sub-seasonal Forecast. - 3 Effect of Ensemble Size and Lagged Ensemble. - 4 Real-Time Forecast Configuration. - 5 Reforecast Configuration. - 6 Summary and Concluding Remarks. - Acknowledgments. - 13. Ensemble Generation: The TIGGE and S2S Ensembles / Roberto Buizza. - 1 Global Sub-seasonal and Seasonal Prediction Is an Initial Value Problem. - 2 Ensembles Provide More Complete and Valuable Information Than Single States. - 3 A Brief Introduction to Data Assimilation. - 4 A Brief Introduction to Model Uncertainty Simulation. - 5 An Overview of Operational, Global, Sub-seasonal, and Seasonal Ensembles, and Their Initialization and Generation Methods. - 6 Ensembles: Considerations About Their Future. - 7 Summary and Key Lessons. - 14. GCMs With Full Representation of Cloud Microphysics and Their MJO Simulations / In-Sik Kang, Min-Seop Ahn, Hiroaki Miura, Aneesh Subramanian. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Global CRM. - 3 Superparameterized GCM. - 4 GCM With Full Representation of Cloud Microphysics and Scale-Adaptive Convection. - 5 Summary and Conclusion. - Acknowledgments. - 15. Forecast Recalibration and Multimodel Combination / Stefan Siegert, David B. Stephenson. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Statistical Methods for Forecast Recalibration. - 3 Regression Methods. - 4 Forecast Combination. - 5 Concluding Remarks. - Acknowledgments. - 16. Forecast Verification for S2S Timescales / Caio A. S. Coelho, Barbara Brown, Laurie Wilson, Marion Mittermaier, Barbara Casati. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Factors Affecting the Design of Verification Studies. - 3 Observational References. - 4 Review of the Most Common Verification Measures. - 5 Types of S2S Forecasts and Current Verification Practices. - 6 Summary, Challenges, and Recommendations in S2S Verification. - PART IV S2S APPLICATIONS. - 17. Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Weather Extremes / Frédérik Vitart, Christopher Cunningham, Michael Deflorio, Emanuel Dutra, Laura Ferranti, Brian Golding, Debra Hudson, Charles Jones, Christophe Lavaysse, Joanne Robbins, Michael K. Tippett. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Prediction of Large-Scale, Long-Lasting Extreme Events. - 3 Prediction of Mesoscale Events. - 4 Display and Verification of Sub-seasonal Forecasts of Extreme Events. - 5 Conclusions. - 18. Pilot Experiences in Using Seamless Forecasts for Early Action: The "Ready-Set-Go!" Approach in the Red Cross / Juan Bazo, Roop Singh, Mathieu Destrooper, Erin Coughlan de Perez. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Why Sub-seasonal?. - 3 Case Study: Peru El Niño. - 4 Reflections on the Use of S2S Forecasts. - 5 Conclusions. - 19. Communication and Dissemination of Forecasts and Engaging User Communities / Joanne Robbins, Christopher Cunningham, Rutger Dankers, Matthew Degennaro, Giovanni Dolif, Robyn Duell, Victor Marchezini, Brian Mills, Juan Pablo Sarmiento, Amber Silver, Rachel Trajber, Andrew Watkins. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Sector-Specific Methods and Practices in S2S Forecast Communication, Dissemination, and Engagement. - 3 Guiding principles for improved communication Practices. - 4 Summary and Recommendations for Future Research. - 20. Seamless Prediction of Monsoon Onset and Active/Break Phases / A.