ALBERT

Description:    Aggregated consideration of both climate and socio-economic change in a coarse spatial resolution is a central feature for scenario development in global change research. Downscaling of the supposed aggregated changes is a necessary prerequisite for the assessments of global change at the regional scale. The present paper describes the method and results of an approach to develop and to apply scenarios of socio-economic change at a sub-national level, which are consistent with global change scenarios. National and regional models of economic and demographic development are used to regionalise drivers of socio-economic change. Scenario results are subsequently applied in order to analyse the impacts of socio-economic and climatic changes on water management issues in the Elbe river basin. Starting from global IPCC-Emissions Scenarios and taking up their key points, we formulate two scenarios for the German and Czech parts of the Elbe catchment areas. We present a system of demographic and economic models, designed to consistently project socio-economic developments at a national and sub-national level and, thus, to quantitatively illustrate our scenarios. The results show that in a scenario that assumes continued globalisation and emphasis on economic growth, export orientation will result in a comparatively high share of manufacturing. Growth spreads from centres to peripheral regions. Still, at the national level, the increase in population and employment will be modest and create little additional pressure, but water stress will be considerably stronger on a regional basis, namely in metropolitan areas such as Prague, Berlin and Hamburg. In a scenario where economic goals are balanced with ecologic and social ones, growth is weaker and the weight of the service sector increases more rapidly, thus easing the driving forces for overall water demand and pollution. However, as in this scenario regional metropolitan centres develop at the cost of peripheral regions, regional development is more selective and the driving forces for potential water stress will diverge spatially. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-12 DOI 10.1007/s10113-011-0237-6 Authors Jürgen Blazejczak, University of Applied Sciences Merseburg, Geusaer Straße, 06217 Merseburg, Germany Martin Gornig, German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) Berlin, Mohrenstraße 58, 10117 Berlin, Germany Volkmar Hartje, Technical University (TU) Berlin, EB 4-2, Straße des 17. Juni 145, 10623 Berlin, Germany Journal Regional Environmental Change Online ISSN 1436-378X Print ISSN 1436-3798

Description:    The paper provides a first quantitative estimate of the potential number of people and value of assets exposed to coastal flooding in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. The study used an elevation-based geographic information system-analysis based on physical exposure and socio-economic vulnerability under a range of climate and socio-economic scenarios. It particularly considered a worst-case scenario assuming even if defences (natural and/or man-made) exist, they are subjected to failure under a 100-year flood event. About 8% of Dar es Salaam lies within the low-elevation coastal zone (below the 10 m contour lines). Over 210,000 people could be exposed to a 100-year coastal flood event by 2070, up from 30,000 people in 2005. The asset that could be damaged due to such event is also estimated to rise from US35 million (2005) to US 10 billion (2070). Results show that socio-economic changes in terms of rapid population growth, urbanisation, economic growth, and their spatial distribution play a significant role over climate change in the overall increase in exposure. However, the study illustrates that steering development away from low-lying areas that are not (or less) threatened by sea-level rise and extreme climates could be an effective strategic response to reduce the future growth in exposure. Enforcement of such policy where informal settlements dominate urbanisation (as in many developing countries) could undoubtedly be a major issue. It should be recognised that this analysis only provides indicative results. Lack of sufficient and good quality observational local climate data (e.g. long-term sea-level measurements), finer-resolution spatial population and asset distribution and local elevation data, and detailed information about existing coastal defences and current protection levels are identified as limitations of the study. As such, it should be seen as a first step towards analysing these issues and needs to be followed by more detailed, city-based analyses. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-14 DOI 10.1007/s10113-011-0239-4 Authors Abiy S. Kebede, School of Civil Engineering and the Environment, and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Southampton, Southampton, Highfield, SO17 1BJ UK Robert J. Nicholls, School of Civil Engineering and the Environment, and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Southampton, Southampton, Highfield, SO17 1BJ UK Journal Regional Environmental Change Online ISSN 1436-378X Print ISSN 1436-3798

Description:    The impact of climate change on distribution of vegetation is an important aspect in studies on the responses of ecosystems to the climate change. Particularly in the sensitive environments of the Tibetan Plateau, vegetation distribution may be significantly affected by climate change. In this research, the coupled biogeography and biogeochemistry model, BIOME4, was modified according to the features of vegetation distribution on the Plateau, and the Kappa statistic was used to evaluate the modeling results by comparing the simulated vegetation distribution with the existing 1:1,000,000 vegetation map of China. The comparison showed that modified model was appropriate for simulating the overall vegetation distribution on the Plateau. With the improved BIOME4 model, possible changes in the vegetation distribution were simulated under climate change scenarios. The simulated results suggest that alpine meadows, steppes, and alpine sparse/cushion vegetation and deserts would shrink, while shrubs, broad-leaved forests, coniferous-broad-leaved mixed forests, and coniferous forests would expand. Among these types, shrubs, alpine meadows, and steppes would change the most. The shrubs vegetation would expand toward the northwest, replacing most alpine meadows and part of steppes, and thus causing their shrinkages. Yet broad-leaved forests and coniferous-broad-leaved mixed forests demonstrated smaller changes in their distributions. For all the forest types, the area of coniferous forests would increase the most by spreading to the interior of the Plateau. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-11 DOI 10.1007/s10113-011-0228-7 Authors Dongsheng Zhao, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No. 11 A, Datun Road, Anwai, 100101 Beijing, China Shaohong Wu, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No. 11 A, Datun Road, Anwai, 100101 Beijing, China Yunhe Yin, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No. 11 A, Datun Road, Anwai, 100101 Beijing, China Zhi-Yong Yin, Marine Science and Environmental Studies, University of San Diego, 5998 Alcala Park, San Diego, CA 92110, USA Journal Regional Environmental Change Online ISSN 1436-378X Print ISSN 1436-3798

Description:    Land use changes represent one of the most important components of global environmental change and have a strong influence on carbon cycling. As a consequence of changes in economy during the last century, areas of marginal agriculture have been abandoned leading to secondary successions. The encroachment of woody plants into grasslands, pastures and croplands is generally thought to increase the carbon stored in these ecosystems even though there are evidences for a decrease in soil carbon stocks after land use change. In this paper, we investigate the effects of woody plant invasion on soil carbon and nitrogen stocks along a precipitation gradient (200–2,500 mm) using original data from paired experiment in Italian Alps and Sicily and data from literature (Guo and Gifford Glob Change Biol 8(4):345–360, 2002 ). We found a clear negative relationship (−0.05% C mm −1 ) between changes in soil organic carbon and precipitation explaining 70% of the variation in soil C stocks after recolonization: dry sites gain carbon (up to +67%) while wet sites lose carbon (up to −45%). In our data set, there seem to be two threshold values for soil carbon accumulation: the first one is 900 mm of mean annual rainfall, which separates the negative from the positive ratio values; the second one is 750 mm, which divides the positive values in two groups of sites. Most interestingly, this threshold of 750 mm corresponds exactly to a bioclimatic threshold: sites with 〈750 mm mean annual rainfall is classified as thermo-mediterranean sites, while the ones 〉750 mm are classified as mesomediterranean sites. This suggests that apart from rainfall also temperature values have an important influence on soil carbon accumulation after abandonment. Moreover, our results confirmed that the correlation between rainfall and trend in soil organic carbon may be related to nitrogen dynamics: carbon losses may occur only if there is a substantial decrease in soil nitrogen stock which occurs in wetter sites probably because of the higher leaching. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-8 DOI 10.1007/s10113-011-0229-6 Authors G. Alberti, Department of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, University of Udine, Via Delle Scienze 208, 33100 Udine, Italy V. Leronni, Dipartimento di Scienze Agro-Ambientali e Territoriali, University of Bari, Bari, Italy M. Piazzi, Istituto per le Piante da Legno e l’Ambiente (IPLA), Turin, Italy F. Petrella, Istituto per le Piante da Legno e l’Ambiente (IPLA), Turin, Italy P. Mairota, Dipartimento di Scienze Agro-Ambientali e Territoriali, University of Bari, Bari, Italy A. Peressotti, Department of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, University of Udine, Via Delle Scienze 208, 33100 Udine, Italy P. Piussi, Department of Forest Science and Resources, University of Tuscia, Viterbo, Italy R. Valentini, Department of Agriculture and Forest Sciences and Technologies, University of Florence, Florence, Italy L. Gristina, Dipartimento Saga, University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy T. La Mantia, Dipartimento Demetra, University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy A. Novara, Dipartimento Saga, University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy J. Rühl, EnBioTech s.r.l., Palermo, Italy Journal Regional Environmental Change Online ISSN 1436-378X Print ISSN 1436-3798

Description:    Browsing and grazing pressure on vegetation in the Moremi Game Reserve in Botswana was analyzed using remotely sensed imagery comprising CORONA photographs of 1967 and Landsat TM and Landsat ETM imagery of 1989 and 1994 and 2001, respectively. Comparison of temporal variations in the spatial distributions of different vegetation types and changes in the abundance of selected wildlife species demonstrate a persistent decrease in capacity of the environment to support wild animals, due to increasing abundance of poorly preferred browse species and increasing scarcity of favored varieties. Given the long-term direction of change showing continued deterioration of habitat conditions and the limited prospects for reversal of this trend, it is apparent that there is immediate need to realign wildlife management strategies in ways that can enhance the sustainability of wildlife and the supporting environment. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-15 DOI 10.1007/s10113-011-0230-0 Authors Hamisai Hamandawana, Agricultural Research Council, Institute for Soil, Water and Climate, PB X79, Pretoria, 0001 South Africa Journal Regional Environmental Change Online ISSN 1436-378X Print ISSN 1436-3798

Description: Erratum to: Climatic drivers of potential hazards in Mediterranean coasts Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-1 DOI 10.1007/s10113-011-0206-0 Authors Agustín Sánchez-Arcilla, Laboratori d’Enginyeria Marítima, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Jordi Girona 1–3, Edifici D1 Campus Nord, 08034 Barcelona, Spain Cesar Mösso, Laboratori d’Enginyeria Marítima, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Jordi Girona 1–3, Edifici D1 Campus Nord, 08034 Barcelona, Spain Joan Pau Sierra, Laboratori d’Enginyeria Marítima, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Jordi Girona 1–3, Edifici D1 Campus Nord, 08034 Barcelona, Spain Marc Mestres, Laboratori d’Enginyeria Marítima, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Jordi Girona 1–3, Edifici D1 Campus Nord, 08034 Barcelona, Spain Ali Harzallah, Institut National des Sciences et Technologies de la Mer, 28, rue du 2 mars 1934, 2025 Salammbo, Tunisia Mohamed Senouci, Membre du Groupe Intergouvernemental sur l’Evolution du Climat (IPCC), Association de Recherche Climat Environnement, ARCE, BP 4250, Ibn Rochd, 31037 Oran, Algeria Mohamed El Raey, Alexandria University, Arab Academy of Science and Technology and Maritime Transport, El-Guish Road, El-Shatby, Alexandria, 21526 Egypt Hesham El-Askary, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Schmid College of Science, Chapman University, Orange, CA USA Journal Regional Environmental Change Online ISSN 1436-378X Print ISSN 1436-3798

Description: Erratum to: Sensitivity of potential natural vegetation in China to projected changes in temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO 2 Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-1 DOI 10.1007/s10113-011-0217-x Authors Han Wang, State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiangshan Nanxincun 20, 100093 Beijing, China Jian Ni, State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiangshan Nanxincun 20, 100093 Beijing, China Ian Colin Prentice, Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, North Ryde, NSW 2109, Australia Journal Regional Environmental Change Online ISSN 1436-378X Print ISSN 1436-3798

Description:    Regional Siberian studies have already registered climate warming over the last several decades. We evaluated ongoing climate change in central Siberia between 1991 and 2010 and a baseline period, 1961–1990, and between 1991 and 2010 and Hadley 2020 climate change projections, represented by the moderate B1 and severe A2 scenarios. Our analysis showed that winters are already 2–3°C warmer in the north and 1–2°C warmer in the south by 2010. Summer temperatures increased by 1°C in the north and by 1–2°C in the south. Change in precipitation is more complicated, increasing on average 10% in middle latitudes and decreasing 10–20% in the south, promoting local drying in already dry landscapes. Hot spots of possible forest shifts are modeled using our Siberian bioclimatic vegetation model and mountain vegetation model with respect to climate anomalies observed pre-2010 and predicted 2020 Hadley scenarios. Forests are predicted to shift northwards along the central Siberian Plateau and upslope in both the northern and southern mountains. South of the central Siberian Plateau, steppe advancement is predicted that was previously non-existent north of 56°N latitude. South of 56°N, steppe expansion is predicted in the dry environments of Khakasiya and Tyva. In the southern mountains, it is predicted that the lower tree line will migrate upslope due to increased dryness in the intermontane Tyvan basins. The hot spots of vegetation change that are predicted by our models are confirmed by regional literature data. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-11 DOI 10.1007/s10113-011-0210-4 Authors N. M. Tchebakova, V.N. Sukachev Institute of Forest, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences Academgorodok, 660036 Krasnoyarsk, Russia E. I. Parfenova, V.N. Sukachev Institute of Forest, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences Academgorodok, 660036 Krasnoyarsk, Russia A. J. Soja, National Institute of Aerospace, Resident at NASA Langley Research Center, 21 Langley Boulevard, Mail Stop 420, Hampton, VA 23681-2199, USA Journal Regional Environmental Change Online ISSN 1436-378X Print ISSN 1436-3798

Description:    This paper presents a theoretical framework that can be used to discuss the question of how context, time and different participatory process designs influence the results of participatory monitoring projects in terms of concrete outputs (such as sustainability indicators) and the more intangible social outcomes (such as learning and stakeholder relations). We will discuss and compare four different cases of participatory monitoring of provincial sustainable development in the Netherlands. The results show sustainability issues selected by the stakeholders reflect the socio-economic and ecological structural characteristics of their region. In a different context, stakeholders not only assign different weights to the same set of issues, but more importantly they select a completely different set of regional aims altogether. Since these regional structural characteristics only change slowly over time, the influence of time on stakeholder preferences is shown to be only of minor importance. However, the dissipation of learning effects is shown to be a fundamental challenge for the cyclical nature of participatory monitoring, especially when its goal is shared agenda building. Another important conclusion is that, in the design of participatory processes, more attention should be devoted to providing stakeholders with the opportunity to comment on an ‘intermediate’ product. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-11 DOI 10.1007/s10113-011-0216-y Authors Frans L. P. Hermans, Telos, Brabant Centre for Sustainable Development, Tilburg University, PO Box 90153, 5000 LE Tilburg, The Netherlands Wim M. F. Haarmann, Telos, Brabant Centre for Sustainable Development, Tilburg University, PO Box 90153, 5000 LE Tilburg, The Netherlands John F. L. M. M. Dagevos, Telos, Brabant Centre for Sustainable Development, Tilburg University, PO Box 90153, 5000 LE Tilburg, The Netherlands Journal Regional Environmental Change Online ISSN 1436-378X Print ISSN 1436-3798

Description:    The aim of this study is to explore the urban and/or industrial needs for non-ferrous metals (lead (Pb), copper (Cu) and zinc (Zn)) of Paris (France), a highly developed city conurbation, from the beginning of the nineteenth century to the present. Pb was necessary for the development of urban networks (Pb pipes), Zn for Parisian roofs and Cu for the development of boiler making and electricity. This study is based on economic statistics and shows that the situation evolved from a city transforming ores, having its smelters and transforming metal into goods, to a city where metal smelting has been more or less quickly banned, and where only a small activity of metal transformation into metal-containing goods remains. The patterns of the three metals showed slight differences. The deindustrialization of Paris is also accompanied by a change of the supplying areas over time. Ores were always imported from abroad, because of the lack of French non-ferrous metal mines. But foundries, which were first abroad, had developed in France between the late nineteenth and late twentieth century and were again found abroad at the end of the twentieth century. The transformation of metal into goods left Paris to the benefit of other parts of France first, then of abroad, over time. In a second part, the evaluation of Pb consumption per capita in Paris conurbation shows that Pb needs of Paris conurbation were higher than those of France in the nineteenth century. Then, the Paris demand was satisfied and it became lower than that of France. Both the deindustrialisation of Paris conurbation and its lower needs led to a decrease in the relative weight of Paris for non-ferrous metals, compared to other parts of France. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Article Pages 1-13 DOI 10.1007/s10113-011-0255-4 Authors Laurence Lestel, UMR 7619, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, CNRS-UPMC, 4 Place Jussieu, 75005 Paris, France Journal Regional Environmental Change Online ISSN 1436-378X Print ISSN 1436-3798