Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Dynamical linkage of tropical and subtropical weather systems to the intraseasonal oscillations of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Part II: Simulations in the ENSEMBLES project

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

We assess the ability of individual models (single-model ensembles) and the multi-model ensemble (MME) in the European Union-funded ENSEMBLES project to simulate the intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs; specifically in 10–20-day and 30–50-day frequency bands) of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) over the Western Ghats (WG) and the Bay of Bengal (BoB), respectively. This assessment is made on the basis of the dynamical linkages identified from the analysis of observations in a companion study to this work. In general, all models show reasonable skill in simulating the active and break cycles of the 30–50-day ISOs over the Indian summer monsoon region. This skill is closely associated with the proper reproduction of both the northward propagation of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the variations of monsoon circulation in this band. However, the models do not manage to correctly simulate the eastward propagation of the 30–50-day ISOs in the western/central tropical Pacific and the eastward extension of the ITCZ in a northwest to southeast tilt. This limitation is closely associated with a limited capacity of models to accurately reproduce the magnitudes of intraseasonal anomalies of both the ITCZ in the Asian tropical summer monsoon regions and trade winds in the tropical Pacific. Poor reproduction of the activity of the western Pacific subtropical high on intraseasonal time scales also amplify this limitation. Conversely, the models make good reproduction of the WG 10–20-day ISOs. This success is closely related to good performance of the models in the representation of the northward propagation of the ITCZ, which is partially promoted by local air–sea interactions in the Indian Ocean in this higher-frequency band. Although the feature of westward propagation is generally represented in the simulated BoB 10–20-day ISOs, the air–sea interactions in the Indian Ocean are spuriously active in the models. This leads to active WG rainfall, which is not present in the observed BoB 10–20-day ISOs. Further analysis indicates that the intraseasonal variability of the ISMR is generally underrepresented in the simulations. Skill of the MME in seasonal ISMR forecasting is strongly dependent on individual model performance. Therefore, in order to improve the model skill with respect to seasonal ISMR forecasting, we suggest it is necessary to better represent the robust dynamical links between the ISOs and the relevant circulation variations, as well as the proportion of intraseasonal variability in the individual models.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Alessandri A, Borrelli A, Navarra A, Arribas A, Déqué M, Rogel P, Weisheimer A (2011) Evaluation of probabilistic quality and value of the ENSEMBLES multimodel seasonal forecasts: comparison with DEMETER. Mon Weather Rev 139:581–607

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Annamalai H, Sperber KR (2005) Regional heat sources and the active and break phases of boreal summer intraseasonal (30–50 day) variability. J Atmos Sci 62:2726–2748

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bhide UV, Majumdar VR, Chanekar SP, Paul DK, Chen T-C, Rao GV (1997) A diagnostic study on heat sources and moisture sinks in the monsoon trough area during active-break phases of the Indian summer monsoon, 1979. Tellus 49A:455–473

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen T-C, Weng S-P (1999) Interannual and intraseasonal variations in monsoon depressions and their westward-propagating predecessors. Mon Weather Rev 127:1005–1020

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chowdary JS, Xie SP, Luo JJ, Hafner J, Behera S, Masumoto Y, Yamagata T (2011) Predictability of northwest Pacific climate during summer and the role of the tropical Indian ocean. Clim Dyn 36:607–621

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ding Y (2007) The variability of the Asian summer monsoon. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 85B:21–54

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Duffy PB, Govindasamy B, Iorio JP, Milovich J, Sperber KR, Taylor KE, Wehner MF, Thompson SL (2003) High-resolution simulations of global climate, part 1: present climate. Clim Dyn 21:371–390

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gill AE (1980) Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation. Q J R Meteorol Soc 106:447–462

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goswami BN (1994) Dynamical predictability of seasonal monsoon rainfall: problems and prospects. Proc Indian Natl Sci Acad 60A:101–120

    Google Scholar 

  • Goswami BN (1998) Interannual variations of Indian summer monsoon in a GCM: external conditions versus internal feedbacks. J Clim 11:501–522

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goswami BN (2005) South Asian summer monsoon: an overview. In: Chang CP, Wang B, Lau NCG (eds) The global monsoon system: research and forecast. WMO/TD No. 1266 (TMRP report No. 70), pp 47–71

  • Goswami BN, Ajaya Mohan RS (2001) Intraseasonal oscillations and interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon. J Clim 14:1180–1198

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goswami BN, Xavier PK (2005) Dynamics of ‘internal’ interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon in a GCM. J Geophys Res 110:D24104. doi:10.1029/2005JD006042

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hoyos CD, Webster PJ (2007) The role of intraseasonal variability in the nature of Asian monsoon precipitation. J Clim 20:4402–4424

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Inness PM, Slingo JM, Woolnough SJ, Neale RB, Pope VD (2001) Organization of tropical convection in a GCM with varying vertical resolution: implication for the simulation of the Madden-Julian oscillation. Clim Dyn 17:777–793

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kemball-Cook S, Wang B, Fu X (2002) Simulation of the intraseasonal oscillation in the ECHAM-4 model: the impact of coupling with an ocean model. J Atmos Sci 59:1433–1453

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishnamurthy V, Shukla J (2000) Intraseasonal and inter-annual variations of rainfall over India. J Clim 13:4366–4375

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishnamurti TN, Bhalme HN (1976) Oscillations of monsoon system. Part I: observational aspects. J Atmos Sci 33:1937–1954

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishnamurti TN, Subramanian D (1982) The 30–50 day mode at 850 mb during MONEX. J Atmos Sci 39:2088–2095

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishnamurti TN, Oosterhof DK, Mehta AV (1988) Air–sea interaction on the time scale of 30–50 days. J Atmos Sci 45:1304–1322

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kumar KK, Rajagopalan B, Cane MA (1999) On the weakening relationship between the Indian monsoon and ENSO. Science 284:2156–2159

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lau KM, Peng L (1987) Origin of low frequency (intraseasonal) oscillations in the tropical atmosphere. Part I: the basic theory. J Atmos Sci 44:950–972

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lawrence DM, Webster PJ (2002) The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation: relationship between northward and eastward movement of convection. J Atmos Sci 59:1593–1606

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ma S, Rodó X, Doblas-Reyes FJ (2011) Evaluation of the DEMETER performance for seasonal hindcasts of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Int J Climatol. doi:10.1002/joc.2389

    Google Scholar 

  • Ma S, Rodó X, Song Y, Cash BA (2012) Dynamical linkage of tropical and subtropical weather systems to the intraseasonal oscillations of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Part I: observations. Clim Dyn 39:557–574

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Madden R, Julian P (1971) Detection of a 40–50 day oscillation in the zonal wind in the tropical Pacific. J Atmos Sci 28:702–708

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Neelin JD, Held IM, Cook KH (1987) Evaporation-wind feedback and low-frequency variability in the tropical atmosphere. J Atmos Sci 44:2341–2348

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Palmer TN et al (2004) Development of a European multi-model ensemble system for seasonal to inter-annual prediction (DEMETER). Bull Am Meteorol Soc 85:853–872

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reynolds RW, Smith TM, Liu C, Chelton DB, Casey KS, Schlax MG (2007) Daily high-resolution-blended analyses for sea surface temperature. J Clim 20:5473–5496

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rodwell MJ, Hoskins BJ (2001) Subtropical anticyclones and summer monsoons. J Clim 14:3192–3211

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Slingo JM, Annamalai H (2000) 1997: The El Nino of the century and the response of the Indian summer monsoon. Mon Weather Rev 128:1778–1797

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sperber KR, Annamalai H (2008) Coupled model simulations of boreal summer intraseasonal (30–50 day) variability, Part 1: systematic errors and caution on use of metrics. Clim Dyn 31:345–372

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sperber KR, Brankovic C, Déqué M, Frederiksen CS, Graham R, Kitoh A, Kobayashi C, Palmer T, Puri K, Tennant W, Volodinand E (2001) Dynamical seasonal predictability of the Asian summer monsoon. Mon Weather Rev 129:2226–2248

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sperber KR, Gualdi S, Legutke S, Gayler V (2005) The Madden-Julian oscillation in ECHAM4 coupled and uncoupled general circulation models. Clim Dyn 25:117–140

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sui C-H, Chung P-H, Li T (2007) Interannual and interdecadal variability of the summertime western North Pacific subtropical high. Geophys Res Lett 34:L11701. doi:10.1029/2006GL029204

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Torrence C, Compo GP (1998) A practical guide to wavelet analysis. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 79:61–78

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Waliser DE (2005) Intraseasonal variabililty. In: Chang CP, Wang B, Lau NCG (eds) The global monsoon system: research and forecast. WMO/TD No. 1266 (TMRP report No. 70), pp 403–439

  • Wang B, Xie X (1998) Coupled modes of the warm pool climate system part I: the role of air–sea interaction in maintaining Madden-Julian oscillation. J Clim 11:2116–2135

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang B, Webster PJ, Teng H (2005) Antecedents and self-induction of active-break South Asian monsoon unraveled by satellites. Geophys Res Lett 32:L04704. doi:10.1029/2004GL020996

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Webster PJ, Hoyos C (2004) Prediction of monsoon rainfall and river discharge on 15–30-day time scales. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 85:1745–1765

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Webster PJ, Magana VO, Palmer TN, Shukla J, Tomas RT, Yanai M, Yasunari T (1998) Monsoons: processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction. J Geophys Res 103:14451–14510

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weisheimer A, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Palmer TN, Alessandri A, Arribas A, Déqué M, Keenlyside N, MacVean M, Navarra A, Rogel P (2009) ENSEMBLES: a new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual prediction-skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs. Geophys Res Lett 36:L21711. doi:10.1029/2009GL040896

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Woolnough SJ, Slingo JM, Hoskins BJ (2000) The relationship between convection and sea surface temperature on intraseasonal timescales. J Clim 13:2086–2104

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xavier PK, Duvel J-P, Doblas-Reyes FJ (2008) Boreal summer intraseasonal variability in coupled seasonal hindcasts. J Clim 21:4477–4497

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xie P, Arkin PA (1997) Global precipitation. A 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates and numerical model outputs. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78:2539–2558

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xie SP, Hu K, Hafner J, Tokinaga H, Du Y, Huang G, Sampe T (2009) Indian ocean capacitor effect on Indo-western Pacific climate during the summer following El Niño. J Clim 22:730–747

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yasunari T (1980) A quasi-stationary appearance of 30–40 day period in the cloudiness fluctuation during summer monsoon over India. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 58:225–229

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors appreciate helpful comments and suggestions from two anonymous reviewers that much improved the manuscript. We are grateful to both the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) that freely provided the database generated from the ENSEMBLES project and daily high-resolution SST data, respectively. CMAP data were obtained from http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.cmap.html. S. Ma was in receipt of a Torres-Quevedo grant by the MICINN (Spain) through the Barcelona Science Park. X. Rodó was in receipt of support from NSF grant ATM-0830068, NOAA grant NA09OAR4310058 and by the FP7-Health-2011 DENFREE project No 282378. B. Cash acknowledges support from NSF grant ATM-0830068, NOAA grant NA09OAR4310058, and NASA grant NNX09AN50G.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3), C/Doctor Trueta 203, 08005, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain

    Shujie Ma & Xavier Rodó

  2. Institut Català de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain

    Xavier Rodó

  3. School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA

    Yongjia Song

  4. Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD, USA

    Benjamin A. Cash

Authors
  1. Shujie Ma
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Xavier Rodó
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Yongjia Song
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Benjamin A. Cash
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Shujie Ma.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Ma, S., Rodó, X., Song, Y. et al. Dynamical linkage of tropical and subtropical weather systems to the intraseasonal oscillations of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Part II: Simulations in the ENSEMBLES project. Clim Dyn 39, 1219–1239 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1476-z

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1476-z

Keywords

Search

Navigation