Abstract
The Helmand Basin in Iran and Afghanistan is among the areas that have often faced drought due to hot and dry weather. The frequency and severity of the droughts have imposed immense damages to the inhabitants of this area. Such a condition increased climate vulnerability, desertification, and migration. In this study, drought event in Helmand basin during past three decades was detected and forecasted until 2100 by atmosphere general circulation models. For this purpose, daily precipitation and temperature data from 1990 to 2017 were extracted from the GPCC database produced by the German Meteorological Organization. In order to accurately analyze the droughts of Helmand drainage basin, drought changes in the basin were investigated over three periods; 1990–1999, 2000–2009, and 2010–2017. Investigating the droughts condition of Helmand basin over the period from 1990 to 2017 showed that towards recent periods, the extent of severely droughts increased and the extent of severely and very extremely wet has decreased significantly. Forecasting results of Helmand basin droughts by atmosphere general circulation models indicated that from the first 30-year to the last 30-year period, the area of wet and dry would decrease and increase, respectively. Such a condition can be seen in all three scenarios of RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5.
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Notes
Representative Concentration Pathway
Canadian Earth System Model
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Dargahian, F., Doostkamian, M. Detecting and forecasting Helmand basin droughts using RCP scenarios. Arab J Geosci 14, 625 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-06733-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-06733-z