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Integrated population models reveal local weather conditions are the key drivers of population dynamics in an aerial insectivore

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An Erratum to this article was published on 18 August 2017

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Abstract

Changes to weather patterns under a warming climate are complex: while warmer temperatures are expected virtually worldwide, decreased mean precipitation is expected at mid-latitudes. Migratory birds depend on broad-scale weather patterns to inform timing of movements, but may be more susceptible to local weather patterns during sedentary periods. We constructed Bayesian integrated population models (IPMs) to assess whether continental or local weather effects best explained population dynamics in an environmentally sensitive aerial insectivorous bird, the tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor), along a transcontinental gradient from British Columbia to Saskatchewan to New York, and tested whether population dynamics were synchronous among sites. Little consistency existed among sites in the demographic rates most affecting population growth rate or in correlations among rates. Juvenile apparent survival at all sites was stable over time and greatest in New York, whereas adult apparent survival was more variable among years and sites, and greatest in British Columbia and Saskatchewan. Fledging success was greatest in Saskatchewan. Local weather conditions explained significant variation in adult survival in Saskatchewan and fledging success in New York, corroborating the hypothesis that local more than continental weather drives the population dynamics of this species and, therefore, demographic synchrony measured at three sites was limited. Nonetheless, multi-population IPMs can be a powerful tool for identifying correlated population trajectories caused by synchronous demographic rates, and can pinpoint the scale at which environmental drivers are responsible for changes. We caution against applying uniform conservation actions for populations where synchrony does not occur or is not fully understood.

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  • 18 August 2017

    An erratum to this article has been published.

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Acknowledgements

We thank the dozens of volunteers and student employees who contributed to the data in this paper, especially P.-P. Bitton, E. O’Brien, C. Coady, S. Unger and L. Berzins at Prince George, C. Fehr, T. Diamond, D. Shutler, P. Leighton, M. Fast, L. Bartolotti and V. Harriman at St. Denis, and N. Hamm, P. Wrege, S. Orzechowski and T. Pegan at Ithaca. Work at Ithaca was supported by NSF Grants IBN-9207231, IBN-013437, DEB-0717021, DEB 1242573, IOS-0744753, OISE-0730180 and Hatch Grant 183-428 to DWW. Work at Prince George and St. Denis was supported through NSERC grants to RDD and RGC, respectively. We thank N. Michel for assistance in analyses and preparation of this manuscript. We thank our respective universities for their support of this research. Finally, we thank D. Koons, R. Robinson and an anonymous reviewer for their helpful comments to previous versions of this paper.

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  1. Mitch D. Weegman

    Present address: School of Natural Resources, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO, 65211, USA

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Fisheries, Wildlife and Conservation Biology, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, 55108, USA

    Mitch D. Weegman & Todd W. Arnold

  2. Department of Biology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, S7N 5E2, Canada

    Mitch D. Weegman

  3. Ecosystem Science and Management Program, University of Northern British Columbia, Prince George, BC, V2N 4Z9, Canada

    Russell D. Dawson

  4. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, 14853, USA

    David W. Winkler

  5. Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, 14850, USA

    David W. Winkler

  6. Prairie and Northern Wildlife Research Centre, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Saskatoon, SK, S7N 0X4, Canada

    Robert G. Clark

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Contributions

MDW, TWA, RDD, DWW and RGC originally formulated the idea. RDD, DWW and RGC collected the data. MDW conducted the analyses and wrote the manuscript; all authors provided editorial advice.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Mitch D. Weegman.

Additional information

Communicated by David N. Koons.

The original version of this article was revised: The equation was incorrectly published in the original version and the same is corrected here.

An erratum to this article is available at https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-017-3899-z.

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Weegman, M.D., Arnold, T.W., Dawson, R.D. et al. Integrated population models reveal local weather conditions are the key drivers of population dynamics in an aerial insectivore. Oecologia 185, 119–130 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-017-3890-8

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