Abstract
Conventional design practice aims at obtaining optimal estimates of floods with specified exceedance probabilities. Such estimates are, however, known on the average to be exceeded more frequently than expected. Alternatively, methods focusing on the expected exceedance probability can be used. Two different methods are considered here; the first is based on the sample distribution of true exceedance probabilities. The second is a Bayesian analogue using the likelihood function and a noninformative prior to describe the variability of exceedance probabilities. Appropriate analytical solutions are presented in both cases using the partial duration series approach.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Arnell, N.W. 1988: Unbiased estimation of flood risk with the GEV distribution. Stochastic Hydrol. Hydraul. 2, 201–212
Ashkar, F.; Rousselle, J. 1981: Design discharge as a random variable: a risk study. Water Resour. Res. 17 (3), 577–591
Ashkar, F.; Rousselle, J. 1983: Some remarks on the truncation used in partial flood series models. Water Resour. Res. 19 (2), 477–480
Beard, L.R. 1978: Impact of hydrologic uncertainties on flood insurance. ASCE, J. Hyd. Div. 104 (HY11), 1473–1483
Berger, J.O. 1980: Statistical decision theory, foundation, concepts and methods. Springer-Verlag, New York
Cong, S.Z. 1985: A general formula for calculating the probability of failure of water projects and its potential application. J. Hydrol. 80, 111–124
Cunnane, C. 1973: A particular comparison of annual maxima and partial duration series methods of flood frequency prediction. J. Hydrol. 18, 257–271
Rasmussen, P.F.; Rosbjerg, D. 1989: Risk estimation in partial duration series. Water Resour. Res. 25 (11), 2319–2330
Rosbjerg, D. 1985: Estimation in partial duration series with independent and dependent peak values. J. Hydrol. 76, 183–195
Rousselle, J.; Hindie, F. 1976: Incertitude dans les debits de crues: approche Bayesienne. J. Hydrol. 30, 341–349
Stedinger, J. 1983: Design events with specified flood risk. Water Resour. Res. 19 (2), 511–522
Todorovic, P.; Zelenhasic, E. 1970: A stochastic model for flood analysis. Water Resour. Res. 6 (1), 1641–1648
Wood, E.F. 1978: Analyzing hydrologic uncertainty and its impact upon decision making in water resources. Advances in Water Resour. 1 (5), 299–305
Wood, E.F.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I. 1975a: Bayesian approach to analyzing uncertainty among flood frequency models. Water Resour. Res. 11 (6), 839–843
Wood, E.F.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I. 1975b: Bayesian inference and decision making for extreme hydrologic events. Water Resour. Res. 11 (4), 533–542
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Rasmussen, P.F., Rosbjerg, D. Evaluation of risk concepts in partial duration series. Stochastic Hydrol Hydraul 5, 1–16 (1991). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01544174
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01544174