Impact Factor: 0.4

Published since January 1, 2004

The Economists’ Voice

ISSN: 1553-3832

Edited by: Friedrich Heinemann, Gunther Schnabl

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About this journal

Objective
The Economists' Voice (EV) is a non-partisan forum for economists to present innovative policy ideas.

Economists have much to contribute to the public debate on a wide range of policy issues. Anyone concerned about the economic policy challenges of today, whether they are students, policymakers, or other citizens, would benefit from being involved in economists’ policy-oriented debate. Monetary policy, fiscal policy, trade, exchange rate policy, development policy, labor market policy, and regulation as well as health care and pension reform are among the most important fields of economic policy discussions.　

The Economists' Voice creates a forum for readable analysis by leading economists on vital economic policy issues of our day. The focus is on the clear verbal presentation of important evidence-based arguments for a broad readership. Empirical papers on policy-relevant issues are also welcome.

The Economists’ Voice was shortlisted for Best New Journal in the 2007 ALPSP/Charlesworth Awards. Its focused policy articles fill a gap between the op-ed pages of the newspaper and journal articles in theoretical journals. Contributors include seven Nobel Prize winners, five past chairs of the President's Council of Economic Advisors, public intellectuals like Paul Krugman and Richard Posner, and a veritable "Who's Who" of modern economic theory and policy.　

Topics

Monetary policy
Fiscal policy
Trade policy
Exchange rate policy
Development policy
Labor market policy
Regulation
Health care and pension reform
and all other economic policy relevant issues

Article formats
Two types of articles are accepted. First, policy papers up to 10,000 words, which are subject to a double-blind referee process and contribute to the scientific debate on important policy issues. Second, short articles for our policy forum, between 600 – 3000 words. They contain a deeper analysis than a newspaper article/comment but are of comparable general interest.

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Your benefits

Recognized editorial board
Contributions by Nobel Prize winners
Insightful analyses of the vital issues of today
Quick access to articles, thanks to online publishing

History

Annual, updated continuously
Content available since 2004 (Volume 1, Issue 1)
ISSN: 1553-3832

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Volume 20 Issue 2

December 2023

Publicly Available January 2, 2024

Frontmatter

Page range: i-ii

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Editorial

Publicly Available December 26, 2023

The Economists’ Voice, December Issue 2023, Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Policy Making

Friedrich Heinemann, Gunther Schnabl

Page range: 143-146

Download PDF

Policy Papers

June 21, 2023

European Public Policies and Sovereign Risk in the Eurozone: How State-Contingent Governance Hampers Fiscal Discipline

Ad van Riet

Page range: 147-168

Abstract

The 30 years old Maastricht Treaty on European Union (EU) is based on the political vision that a stable euro requires sound budgetary policies and sustainable public finances in all the participating countries. This article reviews how the European framework for managing sovereign risk in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has evolved in challenging times. The main finding is that over the years European policymakers have applied a range of special provisions contingent on the state of national economies, the demand for public investment, the need for a sound financial system, the effectiveness of monetary transmission, or on general concerns with the integrity of the eurozone, in a way which hampers fiscal discipline. The growing prominence of this state-contingent governance could mark the political transition from the Maastricht Treaty’s focus on public risk reduction to a ‘Next Generation EMU’ which favours public risk sharing. The challenge in designing the future EMU architecture will be to balance the need to preserve the integrity of eurozone with the need for fiscal discipline.

Open Access November 27, 2023

The Reform of the European Fiscal Rules: In Search of Mechanisms Ensuring Sustainable Debt Levels

Jakob de Haan, Fabian Amtenbrink

Page range: 169-178

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Abstract

Central to the recent European Commission’s proposals for the reform of the current fiscal rules is the introduction of national medium-term fiscal structural plans. The proposed emphasis on compliance with country-specific net expenditure trajectories aimed at government debt sustainability is to be welcomed. However, several details of this expenditure path are either not clear or run the risk of political manipulation. What is more, maintaining the one-size fits all 3 % threshold for the budget balance undermines several of the acclaimed advantages of the proposed new governance system, including that it would be simpler and less pro-cyclical. Furthermore, enforcement under the proposed framework is also unlikely to be stronger than under the current framework. Last, but not least, the proposal does not discuss the need for an EU framework for debt restructuring.

Open Access June 20, 2023

How Brexit Damaged the United Kingdom and the City of London

John Martin Timothy Ryan

Page range: 179-195

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Abstract

This paper examines the economic cost of Brexit for the City of London. Even though the Covid pandemic may have delayed some plans for relocations by financial firms from London to the EU, the EU’s finance hubs are growing. Paris has become the bloc’s top trading hub, while Frankfurt, Dublin and Amsterdam are also emerging as hubs for different financial services specialisms. There were three drivers behind the UK government’s stance on Brexit which have been largely detrimental to City of London interests: First, Getting Brexit Done by concluding a boilerplate agreement on goods, while neglecting financial services; second, leaving the single market and ending freedom of movement making a deal on financial services impossible, and third, the false and arrogant mantra that ‘the EU needed the City more than the City needed the EU’. Prime Ministers Johnson, Truss and Sunak have led the UK into further self-inflicted economic and political decline and regulatory uncertainty. Brexit will over the next few years have a negative impact on jobs and tax receipts. The City of London will have to adapt to the harsh realities of a hard Brexit, perennial tensions with Brussels and growing competition from European financial centres and from New York.

Open Access June 22, 2023

Understanding Economic Sanctions on Iran: A Survey

Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, Esfandyar Batmanghelidj

Page range: 197-226

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Abstract

This paper surveys the literature on the economic effects of sanctions on Iran, with a principal focus on those imposed after 2006. We discuss the challenges of isolating the impacts of sanctions and evaluate recent methodological approaches used to measure causal effects. Specifically, we focus on the application of the synthetic control method to disaggregate the exogenous and endogenous factors responsible for economic underperformance in Iran. We review studies on the macroeconomic impacts of Iran sanctions and examine those that focus on the sectoral effects of sanctions. Our survey reveals a large and growing body of literature that remains incomplete. There are significant gaps in the existing research on the impact of sanctions. Iran will likely remain the most important case study as researchers seek to fill those gaps.

December 8, 2023

A Soufflé only Rises Once: China’s Grim Economic Prospects

Heribert Dieter

Page range: 227-248

Abstract

After four decades of unprecedented growth, the Chinese economy faces a plethora of structural problems: The bursting of the world’s largest real estate bubble, the demographic decline and the turn to a preference for autarky are resulting in a potent mix. Solving the above-named problems will results in a prolonged phase of slow growth or even stagnation. Not tackling the issues will be even worse, for the adjustment process will eventually be even more painful. Real estate is probably the biggest issue. Too many apartments were built for too few people. The second key problem is the demography. The United Nations are suggesting that China’s population may shrink to about half its current level by 2100. Since China does not consider immigration, the aging population will be a drag on economic development and, of course, real estate. The Chinese Communist Party has engineered an economic mirage: That soufflé will only rise once.

Policy Forum: Geopolitical Tensions and Deglobalization

Publicly Available December 20, 2023

Deglobalization: Reasons and Effects

Gabriel Felbermayr

Page range: 249-253

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Abstract

Globalization, e.g. as measured by the ratio of global trade to global production (or GDP), has stopped advancing and may well recede in the years to come. Whether this is harmful for economic welfare depends on the precise reasons of this development. The effect of increasing border measures on GDP, however, is quite clearly negative. Because technological progress will continue to lower trade costs, globalization will bounce back forcefully when the geopolitical environment becomes more benign again.

September 15, 2023

Geopolitical Tensions and Global Monetary (Dis)Order

Barry Eichengreen

Page range: 255-258

Abstract

Two sources of geopolitical tension – G7 sanctions on Russia and conflict between the United States and China – have the potential to reshape the global monetary system. This short paper argues that only the second is likely to have far-reaching, and heavily negative, consequences if allowed to develop further.

Open Access December 20, 2023

From BRICS to BRICS+: Sheer More Members is not a Challenge to G7

Katrin Kamin, Rolf J. Langhammer

Page range: 259-265

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Abstract

The global economic landscape is undergoing a transformative shift, as evidenced by the BRICS nations’ increasing dominance. This development raises questions about the emergence of economic and political blocks and their potential leverage. China and India, as the world’s most populous nations within the group, are instrumental in driving global economic demand. The expansion of BRICS, with new members possessing vast natural resources, amplifies the group’s influence. However, the BRICS face a monetary and financial Achilles heel, especially in the case of China, hindering their ability to act independently. As the BRICS gain geopolitical significance, the G7 responds with infrastructure initiatives and trade agreements, though success hinges on reciprocal concessions. The BRICS thus serve as a wake-up call for the G7, prompting considerations of rejuvenating political and economic links amidst a shifting global landscape.

Open Access September 6, 2023

The Rise and Fall of the Eurasian Regionalism

Alexander Libman

Page range: 267-274

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Abstract

The essay traces the evolution of the Eurasian regionalism over the last three decades. It focuses on the inherent contradictions between the centripetal market forces and the geopolitical clashes affecting the economic integration perspectives. In Eurasia, economic integration has been repeatedly reinterpreted in terms of geopolitical power; at the same time, economic interaction emerged across the politically motivated boundaries.

Open Access October 12, 2023

Caught up by Geopolitics: Sanctions and the EU’s Response to Russia’s War Against Ukraine

Katharina Meissner

Page range: 275-283

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Abstract

Russia’s war against Ukraine unfolded unprecedented geopolitical, economic and energy-related tension in the European Union (EU). Amidst this situation, decision-makers and scholars alike have returned to concepts of geopolitics to reflect the EU’s external affairs and its position in the international (trade) system. Indeed, geopolitical considerations help us to understand the sanctions imposed by the EU against Russia. The restrictive measures against Russia and the Russian-controlled areas in Ukraine are, to date, the most comprehensive measures adopted autonomously by the EU. They reflect the EU’s geopolitical considerations in carving out a strong response to Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine and the unparalleled political and security threat in Europe.

November 10, 2023

China’s Central Role in the Globalization and Slowbalization Trends

Alicia Garcia Herrero

Page range: 285-291

Abstract

China has played a central role in the previous phase of hiper-globalization but also in the ongoing phase of slowbalization, characterized by the decreasing size of global value chains which started after the global financial crisis in 2008. More recently, US-China strategic competition is contributing to the slowbalization process, especially in the technology space. Against such backdrop, China is reducing its dependence on the outside world, betting on technological self-reliance and working hard to build its own ecosystem. However, such trend does not mean isolation; on the contrary, China actively shapes its unique form of globalization by creating its own neighbourhood or area of economic influence. A prominent example of this effort is the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which aims at increasing China’s soft – and possibly hard – power with a hub and spoke approach.

October 18, 2023

German Chinese Economic Relations: Necessary Reassessment

Michael Hüther

Page range: 293-300

Abstract

Since the globalization of China has not been accompanied by an opening of its political system and society, political conditions for the economic development must be viewed in a global context. In addition to the economic slowdown, China faces a demographic challenge that has been ignored for a long time, and social upheavals have also been overlooked in the West in the euphoria over the market potential in the People’s Republic. The economic dependencies between the German and Chinese economies are two-sided. German companies should assess the risks of their China engagement, while corporates strategies are no substitute for a courageous foreign trade policy.

December 25, 2023

China’s Economy as Xi’s Means of Power Or Why the Chinese Economy is Not yet Bigger than That of the USA

Norbert F. Tofall

Page range: 301-309

Abstract

Contrary to optimistic predictions from the financial industry in 2011, China’s economy will not have overtaken that of the USA by 2025. Since 2012, Xi Jinping has largely brought the market, private property and the capitalist mode of production back under the control of the Chinese Communist Party. Xi has curtailed the success factor of decentralization and continued to expand the failure factors of interventionism and state control. Capital is now flowing out of China, putting the renminbi under devaluation pressure. Even a relocation of production capacities from China primarily to other Asian countries can already be observed. In its policy of hegemony, China is steering the economy to achieve political and geopolitical ends and is practising geoeconomics. What remains unclear is how the geoeconomics pursued by Xi is intended to enable long-term growth in China.

September 21, 2023

Systemic Rivalry of China and the West in Climate Policy

Guntram Wolff

Page range: 311-316

Abstract

This article outlines how the systemic rivalry between the West and China is preventing effective collaboration in the fight against climate change. Three approaches are suggested that can help the West achieve tangible action in the sphere of climate policy. First, the West must build up pressure points such as CBAM or even tariffs to incentivise greater climate protection measures. Second, climate partnerships with more substantial financial resources will incentivise developing countries to accelerate decarbonisation and not just follow the Chinese model. Third, climate action in the US and EU must be well calibrated.

Ahead of Print / Just Accepted

Ahead of Print / Just Accepted

Volume 20 (2023)

Volume 19 (2022)

Volume 9 (2012)

Volume 8 (2011)

Volume 7 (2010)

Volume 6 (2009)

Issue 13
Issue 12
Issue 11 Financial Market Regulatory Reform
Issue 10
Issue 9
Issue 8
Issue 7
Issue 6
Issue 5
Issue 4
Issue 3
Issue 2
Issue 1

Volume 5 (2008)

Volume 4 (2007)

Volume 3 (2006)

Volume 2 (2005)

Volume 1 (2004)

Journal Impact Factor	0.4	2022, Journal Citation Reports (Clarivate, 2023)
5-year Journal Impact Factor	0.4	2022, Journal Citation Reports (Clarivate, 2023)
Journal Citation Indicator	0.16	2022, Journal Citation Reports (Clarivate, 2023)
CiteScore	0.8	2022, Scopus (Elsevier B.V., 2023)
SCImago Journal Rank	0.197	2022, SJR (Scimago Lab, 2023; Data Source: Scopus)
Source Normalized Impact per Paper	0.474	2022, CWTS Journal Indicators (CWTS B.V., 2023; Data Source: Scopus)

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Editorial

Editors

Prof. Dr. Gunther Schnabl, University of Leipzig, Germany
Prof. Dr. Friedrich Heinemann, ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim, Germany; University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany

Editorial Board

Dirk Baur, University of Western Australia, Australia
Nicolas Cachanosky, Metropolitan State University of Denver, USA
Barry Eichengreen, University of California, Berkeley, USA
Stefan Felder, University of Basel, Switzerland
Christopher A. Hartwell, Kozminski University, Poland
Monika Köppl-Turyna, EcoAustria Vienna, Austria
Corrado Macchiarelli, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, UK
Eiji Ogawa, Tokyo Keizai University, Japan
Niklas Potrafke, University of Munich, Germany
Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, Catholic University of Chile, Chile

(Deutsch)

Online ISSN: 1553-3832
Print ISSN: 2194-6167
Type: Journal
Language: English
Publisher: De Gruyter
First published: January 1, 2004
Publication Frequency: 2 Issues per Year
Audience: Readers include professional economists, lawyers, policy analysts, policymakers, and students of economics. The Economists' Voice is a source of expertise directed at once at the professional economist, policymakers, students, and anyone curious about the economy today.