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  • 1
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    Response of Tropical Rainfall to Reduced Evapotranspiration Depends on Continental Extent (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-12-01
    Description: Future projections of precipitation change over tropical land are often enhanced by vegetation responses to CO2 forcing in Earth system models. Projected decreases in rainfall over the Amazon basin and increases over the Maritime Continent are both stronger when plant physiological changes are modeled than if these changes are neglected, but the reasons for this amplification remain unclear. The responses of vegetation to increasing CO2 levels are complex and uncertain, including possible decreases in stomatal conductance and increases in leaf area index due to CO2 fertilization. Our results from an idealized atmospheric general circulation model show that the amplification of rainfall changes occurs even when we use a simplified vegetation parameterization based solely on CO2-driven decreases in stomatal conductance, indicating that this mechanism plays a key role in complex model projections. Based on simulations with rectangular continents we find that reducing terrestrial evaporation to zero with increasing CO2 notably leads to enhanced rainfall over a narrow island. Strong heating and ascent over the island trigger moisture advection from the surrounding ocean. In contrast, over larger continents rainfall depends on continental evaporation. Simulations with two rectangular continents representing South America and Africa reveal that the stronger decrease in rainfall over the Amazon basin seen in Earth system models is due to a combination of local and remote effects, which are fundamentally connected to South America’s size and its location with respect to Africa. The response of tropical rainfall to changes in evapotranspiration is thus connected to size and configuration of the continents.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 2
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    Variability of Tropical Cyclone Landfalls in China (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-12-01
    Description: The reported decreasing trend of the annual tropical cyclone (TC) landfalls in southern China and increasing trend in southeastern China in recent decades are confirmed to be an abrupt shift occurring at the end of the twentieth century, based on a statistical analysis. The opposite trends in the two adjacent regions are often considered to be a result of tropical cyclone landfalls in southern China being deflected northward. However, it is demonstrated in this study that they are phenomenally independent. In fact, the abrupt decrease of TC landfalls in southern China occurs as a result of an abrupt decrease of the westward events in the postpeak season (October–December), which in turn is a consequence of a significant decrease of the TC genesis frequency in the southeastern part of the western North Pacific (WNP) Ocean basin. On the other hand, the abrupt increase of TC landfalls in southeastern China occurs because of an abrupt increase of the northwest events in the peak season (July–September), as the consequence of a statistically westward shift of TC genesis. The relevant variations of TC genesis are shown to be mainly caused by decreased relative vorticity and increased vertical wind shear, which, however, are intrinsically related to the accelerated zonal atmospheric circulation driven by a La Niña–like sea surface warming pattern over the WNP that developed after the end of twentieth century.
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    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 3
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    A Global Perspective of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation in Reanalyses (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-11-01
    Description: This study compares the spread in climatological tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation across eight different reanalysis datasets: NCEP-CFSR, ERA-20C, ERA-40, ERA5, ERA-Interim, JRA-55, MERRA-2, and NOAA-20C. TC precipitation is assigned using manual tracking via a fixed 500-km radius from each TC center. The reanalyses capture similar general spatial patterns of TC precipitation and TC precipitation fraction, defined as the fraction of annual precipitation assigned to TCs, and the spread in TC precipitation is larger than the spread in total precipitation across reanalyses. The spread in TC precipitation relative to the inter-reanalysis mean TC precipitation, or relative spread, is larger in the east Pacific than in the west Pacific. Partitioned by reanalysis intensity, the largest relative spread across reanalyses in TC precipitation is from high-intensity TCs. In comparison with satellite observations, reanalyses show lower climatological mean annual TC precipitation over most areas. A comparison of area-averaged precipitation rate in TCs composited over reanalysis intensity shows the spread across reanalyses is larger for higher intensity TCs. Testing the sensitivity of TC precipitation assignment to tracking method shows that climatological mean annual TC precipitation is systematically larger when assigned via manual tracking versus objective tracking. However, this tendency is minimized when TC precipitation is normalized by TC density. Overall, TC precipitation in reanalyses is affected by not only horizontal output resolution or any TC preprocessing, but also data assimilation and parameterization schemes. The results indicate that improvements in the representation of TCs and their precipitation in reanalyses are needed to improve overall precipitation.
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  • 4
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    Understanding the Basin Asymmetry in Surface Response to Sudden Stratospheric Warmings from an Ocean–Atmosphere Coupled Perspective (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-11-01
    Description: The canonical tropospheric response to a weakening of the stratospheric vortex—an equatorward shift of the eddy-driven jet—is mostly limited to the North Atlantic following sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). A coherent change in the Pacific eddy-driven jet is notably absent. Why is this so? Using daily reanalysis data, we show that air–sea interactions over the North Pacific are responsible for the basin-asymmetric response to SSWs. Prior to the onset of some SSWs, their tropospheric precursors produce a dipolar SST pattern in the North Pacific, which then persists as the stratospheric polar vortex breaks down following the onset of the SSW. By reinforcing the lower-tropospheric baroclinicity, the dipolar SST pattern helps sustain the generation of baroclinic eddies, strengthening the near-surface Pacific eddy-driven jet and maintaining its near-climatological-mean state. This prevents the jet from being perturbed by the downward influence of the stratospheric anomalies. As a result, these SSWs exhibit a highly basin-asymmetric surface response with only the Atlantic eddy-driven jet shifted equatorward. For SSWs occurring without the atmospheric precursors in the North Pacific troposphere, the dipolar SST pattern is absent due to the lack of the atmospheric forcing. In the absence of the dipolar SST pattern and the resultant eddy–mean flow feedbacks, these SSWs exhibit a basin-symmetric surface response with both the Atlantic and the Pacific eddy-driven jets shifted equatorward. Our results provide an ocean–atmosphere coupled perspective on stratosphere–troposphere interaction following SSW events and have potential for improving subseasonal to seasonal forecasts for surface weather and climate.
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  • 5
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    Mechanisms of Regional Winter Sea-Ice Variability in a Warming Arctic (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-11-01
    Description: The Arctic winter sea ice cover is in retreat overlaid by large internal variability. Changes to sea ice are driven by exchange of heat, momentum, and freshwater within and between the ocean and the atmosphere. Using a combination of observations and output from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble, we analyze and contrast present and future drivers of the regional winter sea ice cover. Consistent with observations and previous studies, we find that for the recent decades ocean heat transport though the Barents Sea and Bering Strait is a major source of sea ice variability in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors of the Arctic, respectively. Future projections show a gradually expanding footprint of Pacific and Atlantic inflows highlighting the importance of future Atlantification and Pacification of the Arctic Ocean. While the dominant hemispheric modes of winter atmospheric circulation are only weakly connected to the sea ice, we find distinct local atmospheric circulation patterns associated with present and future regional sea ice variability in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors, consistent with heat and moisture transport from lower latitudes. Even if the total freshwater input from rivers is projected to increase substantially, its influence on simulated sea ice is small in the context of internal variability.
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  • 6
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    Future Projection of Extreme Precipitation Indices over the Indochina Peninsula and South China in CMIP6 Models (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-11-01
    Description: A future projection of four extreme precipitation indices over the Indochina Peninsula and South China (INCSC) region with reference to the period 1958–2014 is conducted through the application of a multimodel ensemble approach and a rank-based weighting method. The weight of each model from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is calculated depending on its historical simulation skill. Then, the weighted and unweighted ensembles are used for future projections. The results show that all four extreme precipitation indices are expected to increase over the INCSC region, both in the middle (2041–60) and at the end (2081–2100) of the twenty-first century, under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. The increases in total extreme precipitation (R95p), extreme precipitation days (R95d), and the fraction of total rainfall from events exceeding the extreme precipitation threshold (R95pT) in the Indochina Peninsula are more significant than those in South China. The occurrence of extreme rainfall events may become more frequent in the future over the INCSC region, since the probability that R95pT increases is larger than 0.7 in the whole INCSC region. A comparison between the weighted and unweighted ensemble means shows that the uncertainty over South China is almost always reduced after applying the weighted scheme to future probabilistic projection, while the reductions in uncertainty over the Indochina Peninsula may depend on SSPs. The more extreme precipitation over the INCSC region in the future may be related to the larger water vapor supply and the more unstable local atmospheric stratification.
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  • 7
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    Reanalyses and a High-Resolution Model Fail to Capture the “High Tail” of CAPE Distributions (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-11-01
    Description: Convective available potential energy (CAPE) is of strong interest in climate modeling because of its role in both severe weather and in model construction. Extreme levels of CAPE (〉2000 J kg−1) are associated with high-impact weather events, and CAPE is widely used in convective parameterizations to help determine the strength and timing of convection. However, to date few studies have systematically evaluated CAPE biases in models in a climatological context, and none have addressed bias in the high tail of CAPE distributions. This work compares CAPE distributions in ~200 000 summertime proximity soundings from four sources: the observational radiosonde network [Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA)], 0.125° reanalyses (ERA-Interim and ERA5), and a 4-km convection-permitting regional WRF simulation driven by ERA-Interim. Both reanalyses and the WRF Model consistently show too-narrow distributions of CAPE, with the high tail (〉90th percentile) systematically biased low by up to 10% in surface-based CAPE and even more in alternate CAPE definitions. This “missing tail” corresponds to the most impacts-relevant conditions. CAPE bias in all datasets is driven by surface temperature and humidity: reanalyses and the WRF Model underpredict observed cases of extreme heat and moisture. These results suggest that reducing inaccuracies in land surface and boundary layer models is critical for accurately reproducing CAPE.
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  • 8
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    Tracing the Origin of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Precipitation and Its Variability Using a Novel Lagrangian Framework (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-11-01
    Description: The water sources and their variability responsible for the South Asian summer monsoon precipitation were analyzed using Lagrangian atmospheric water-mass trajectories. The results indicated that evaporated waters from the central and south Indian Ocean are the major contributors to the South Asian summer monsoon rainfall, followed by the contribution from the local recycling (precipitated water that evapotranspirated from the South Asian landmass), the Arabian Sea, remote sources, and the Bay of Bengal. It was also found that although the direct contribution originating from the Bay of Bengal is small, it still provides a pathway for the atmospheric water that comes from other regions. This pathway is hence only crossing over the Bay of Bengal. The outcomes further revealed that the evaporated waters originating from the central and south Indian Ocean are responsible for the net precipitation over the coastal regions of the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna Delta, northeast India, Myanmar, the foothills of the Himalayas, and central-east India. Evaporated waters from the Arabian Sea are mainly contributing to the rainfall over the western coast and west-central India. Summer monsoon precipitation due to the local recycling is primarily restricted to the Indo-Gangetic plain. No recycled precipitation was observed over the mountain chain along the west coast of India (Western Ghats). The month-to-month precipitation variation over South Asia was analyzed to be linked with the Somali low-level jet variability. The interannual variability of the South Asian summer monsoon precipitation was found to be mainly controlled by the atmospheric waters that were sourced and traveled from the central and south Indian Ocean.
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  • 9
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    Quantifying the human influence on the intensity of extreme 1- and 5-day precipitation amounts at global, continental, and regional scales (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-27
    Description: This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the human contribution to the observed intensification of precipitation extremes at different spatial scales. We consider the annual maxima of the logarithm of 1-day (Rx1day) and 5-day (Rx5day) precipitation amounts for 1950–2014 over the global land area, four continents, and several regions, and compare observed changes with expected responses to external forcings as simulated by CanESM2 in a large-ensemble experiment and by multiple models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). We use a novel detection and attribution analysis method that is applied directly to station data in the areas considered without prior processing such as gridding, spatial or temporal dimension reduction or transformation to unitless indices and uses climate models only to obtain estimates of the space-time pattern of extreme precipitation response to external forcing. The influence of anthropogenic forcings on extreme precipitation is detected over the global land area, three continental regions (western Northern Hemisphere, western Eurasia and eastern Eurasia), and many smaller IPCC regions, including C. North-America, E. Asia, E.C. Asia, E. Europe, E. North-America, N. Europe, and W. Siberia for Rx1day, and C. North-America, E. Europe, E. North-America, N. Europe, Russian-Arctic, and W. Siberia for Rx5day. Consistent results are obtained using forcing response estimates from either CanESM2 or CMIP6. Anthropogenic influence is estimated to have substantially decreased the approximate waiting time between extreme annual maximum events in regions where anthropogenic influence has been detected, which has important implications for infrastructure design and climate change adaptation policy.
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  • 10
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    Energy transfers between multidecadal and turbulent variability (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-27
    Description: One of the proposed mechanisms to explain the multidecadal variability observed in sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic consists of a large-scale low-frequency internal mode spontaneously developing because of the large-scale baroclinic instability of the time-mean circulation. Even though this mode has been extensively studied in terms of the buoyancy variance budget, its energetic properties remain poorly known. Here we perform the full mechanical energy budget including available potential energy (APE) and kinetic energy (KE) of this internal mode and decompose the budget into three frequency bands: mean, low frequency (LF) associated with the large-scale mode and high frequency (HF) associated with mesocale eddy turbulence. This decomposition allows us to diagnose the energy fluxes between the different reservoirs and to understand the sources and sinks. Due to the large-scale of the mode, most of its energy is contained in the APE. In our configuration, the only source of LF APE is the transfer from mean APE to LF APE that is attributed to the large-scale baroclinic instability. In return the sinks of LF APE are the parameterized diffusion, the flux toward HF APE and to a much lesser extent toward LF KE. The presence of an additional wind-stress component weakens multidecadal oscillations and modifies the energy fluxes between the different energy reservoirs. The KE transfer appears to only have a minor influence on the multidecadal mode compared to the other energy sources involving APE, in all experiments. These results highlight the utility of the full APE/ KE budget.
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