ALBERT

Description: This article studies the effects of reverse factoring in a supply chain when the buyer company facilitates its lower short-term borrowing rates to the supplier corporation in return for extended payment terms. We explore the role of interest rate changes, rating changes, and the business cycle position on the cost and benefit trade-off from a supplier perspective. We utilize a combined empirical approach consisting of an event study in Step 1 and a simulation model in Step 2. The event study identifies the quantitative magnitude of central bank decisions and rating changes on the interest rate differential. The simulation computes with a rolling-window methodology the daily cost and benefits of reverse factoring from 2010 to 2018 under the assumption of the efficient market hypothesis. Our major finding is that changes of crucial financial variables such as interest rates, ratings, or news alerts will turn former win–win into win–lose situations for the supplier contingent to the business cycle. Overall, our results exhibit sophisticated trade-offs under reverse factoring and consequently require a careful evaluation in managerial decisions.

Description: We propose a mathematical model of momentum risk-taking, which is essentially real-time risk management focused on short-term volatility. Its implementation, a fully automated momentum equity trading system, is systematically discussed in this paper. It proved to be successful in extensive historical and real-time experiments. Momentum risk-taking is one of the key components of general decision-making, a challenge for artificial intelligence and machine learning. We begin with a new mathematical approach to news impact on share prices, which models well their power-type growth, periodicity, and the market phenomena like price targets and profit-taking. This theory generally requires Bessel and hypergeometric functions. Its discretization results in some tables of bids, basically, expected returns for main investment horizons, the key in our trading system. A preimage of our approach is a new contract card game. There are relations to random processes and the fractional Brownian motion. The ODE we obtained, especially those of Bessel-type, appeared to give surprisingly accurate modeling of the spread of COVID-19.

Description: This study aimed to test, through empirical investigation, how the rapid advancement of digital transformation (DT) has impacted the price of financial services. To this end, we compiled a set of macro-level indicators on the aggregate outcomes of the financial services sector in Korea over the last three decades and conducted an analysis to gauge the effects of DT on the country using those indicators. Using the ARDL-ECM (autoregressive distributed lag error-correction model), we show that, over time, the unit cost of financial intermediation in Korea has tended to move in tandem with the growth in economic output, although the profit portion of the unit cost has not exhibited a long-term relationship with the GDP trend. The long-term effect of the DT trend is negative (i.e., cost-saving) for labor input, capital expenditure, and the total unit cost of financial intermediation, which are all shown to be statistically significant. Consequently, we conclude that DT contributed to enhancing consumer benefit, mainly by achieving the operational efficiency of labor and capital, from 1990 to 2019 in Korea. From a policy perspective, our finding implies that DT-driven innovation in the sector can benefit financial customers if excessive levels of profit are restrained through market competition.

Description: In this paper, we approached the concept of real estate bubble, analyzing the risk its bursting could generate for the Chilean financial market. Specifically, we analyzed the relationship between real housing prices, the economic activity index, and mortgage interest rates denominated in inflation-linked units from 1994 to 2020. The analysis was based on a second order Markov switching model with the predetermined variables mentioned later, whose parameters were obtained through the expectation–maximization algorithm. Then, we built a probability index as early warning indicator for potential imbalances in the real estate price that could put financial market stability at risk. The indicator is important to evaluate economic policy calibrations in time. A main finding was that the real housing price had a non-linear relationship with economic activity and the mortgage interest rate. Therefore, the evolution of the real estate price has been consistent with fundamental macroeconomic variables, even under a high growth regime, with increases above 12% per year. About 92% of housing price variability derived from changing macrofinancial conditions, suggesting a low margin of speculative behavior.

Description: During the global financial crisis (GFC), regulators and policymakers turned to deposit insurers, along with monetary and fiscal measures, to help restore market confidence and promote financial stability. These events have focused attention on the role of deposit insurers and their role in the banking system. Recent literature reveals that during the GFC, deposit insurance maintained banking stability and successfully prevented customers doing ‘runs’ on the banks. The objective of this paper is to examine the deposit insurance system’s coverage limits and the impact on banking stability, in the context of a jurisdiction’s economic and institutional environment. Our model examines 61 jurisdictions in Asia and Europe with explicit deposit insurance systems, covering the pre- and post-GFC period between 2004 and 2014. We also examine subsets to investigate the effects of the region by comparing Asia and Europe, as well as a subset using the date of establishment of the deposit insurance system to understand if maturity matters. The results indicate that deposit insurance systems, and specifically deposit insurance coverage levels, have both positive and negative effects on banking stability. We find significant associations with certain economic and institutional factors; however, there are differences between the models we ran. These can be ascribed to regional factors and the date of when a deposit insurance system was established.

Description: A fundamental role of financial reporting is to provide information useful in forecasting future cash flows. Applying up-to-date time series modelling techniques, this study provides direct evidence on the usefulness of quarterly data in predicting future operating cash flows. Moreover, we show that the predictive gain from using quarterly data is larger for asset-heavy industries and industries with higher levels of earnings smoothness. This study contributes to the accounting literature by examining the usefulness of quarterly financial statements in predicting the realization of future cash flows. Our results help fill the gap in knowledge on quarterly financial statements and provide new insights on why the frequency of financial reporting matters. In addition, our findings have important policy implications for the ongoing debate over interim reporting requirements in multiple jurisdictions around the world.

Description: We investigate the association between dividend policy and government shareholding, using Malaysian data. We hypothesize a positive association. We contribute to the literature about dividend policy. Unique features of our study include adaptations to the Malaysian institutional setting, with respect to usage of dividend relevance theory, research methodology, and data collection. The methodology entails two-stage least squares regressions. Dividend payout and dividend yield are the dependent variables in tests of the research hypothesis. The independent variable of interest measures ownership by government-related institutional investors. The sample comprises 1190 company-years, over the investigation period 2006–2013. The results support our hypothesis. The evidence suggests that this support principally emanates from companies with low-quality corporate governance.

Description: Existing global ESG models are limited in terms of applicability and predictability, especially in countries with an unstable environment. On the other hand, utilizing internally made or privately sourced ESG models have caused issues relating to generalizability, comparability, and continuity. In our research, we present an ESG framework that is specific to South Korea, which has both global and country-specific factors in all three categories. The AHP model is used to determine how the three categories’ materiality would be viewed by institutional investors as well as how country-specific factors rank against global factors. The results of this study show that institutional investors place more importance on environmental and governance factors compared to social factors. Factors including shareholders’ rights, pollution and waste, greenhouse gas emissions, and risk and opportunity management are found to have greater influences on investors’ investment decisions. In addition, it was confirmed that both of the country-specific variables for South Korea, partnership with subcontractor and CEO reputation, have a significant influence on investment decisions. By having the ESG model validated by institutional investors, who are the main users of ESG disclosures of corporations, our methodology of presenting a country-specific model can be benchmarked by studies on other emerging markets with a variety of country-level specificities.

Description: Purpose: This article analyzes the influence of familiarity bias on respondents’ decision-making process, using results from online experiments. Design/methodology/approach: A total of 255 research participants from post-Soviet countries completed 510 online tests that were presented in the form of investment games. In the games, the respondents were allowed to sell, buy, or hold two types of asset portfolios: familiar and unfamiliar assets. Findings: Holders of portfolios with familiar assets were 1.34 times more likely to be persistent in selling winners and holding losers and 1.10 times more likely to be persistent in buying fallen assets than holders of unfamiliar portfolios. Moreover, respondents who managed familiar assets tended to generate terminal result distributions with a kurtosis that was 27.8% higher than the distributions of those managing unfamiliar assets. Originality: Several academic studies have examined familiarity bias, the disposition effect, the positive feedback trading of individual investors, and risk-seeking trading; however, they investigated these topics separately. In the current study, we therefore created an online experiment to identify new aspects of investor behavior.

Description: Corporate social responsibility (CSR) is a topic which has recently been attracting an increasing amount of attention with respect to corporate operations, and shareholder proposals on CSR are also one of the main types of proposals at firms’ annual shareholder meetings. However, even though the frequency of CSR proposals at annual meetings is comparable to other types of shareholder proposals, the approval rate of CSR proposals is significantly lower than that of other types of proposals, meaning that most CSR proposals are not recommended by the annual meeting to the board of directors for further approval. Motivated by this stylized fact, this study investigates the value of the submission of CSR shareholder proposals. Using a regression discontinuity design with shareholder proposal data of US public companies between 2006 and 2019, this study examines the importance of shareholders’ interest in CSR for firm valuation. Interestingly, while the CSR proposals themselves are typically not approved, the submission of CSR proposals by shareholders at annual meetings matters for the value impact of other types of shareholder proposals. More specifically, the causal effect of approving a corporate governance proposal on shareholder value is significantly positive only if the corporate governance proposal is voted together with a CSR proposal at the same meeting, i.e., the presence of CSR proposals is important for firm value through its interrelations with corporate governance proposals. This shows that the submission of CSR shareholder proposals has significant value implications, even if the CSR proposals themselves are not approved at annual meetings.