ALBERT

Description: Restoration and water table control on peatlands to limit fire risk are national priorities in Indonesia. The present study was initiated at Padang Island, Sumatra, to increase understanding on peatland hydrology in the tropic. At the pilot site, water table and precipitation were monitored at different stations. The results show variation in water table depths (WTDs) over time and space due to spatial and temporal variability in rain intensity and drainage networks. In part of the island, large-scale drainage for plantations led to deep WTD (−1.8 m) and high WTD recession rates (up to 3.5 cm/day). Around villages, farm-scale drainages had a smaller impact with a lower recession rate (up to 1.8 cm/day) and shallow WTD, typically below −0.4 m, the threshold for sustainable peatland management in Indonesia. The recession rates levelled off at 1.0 cm/day near the drained forest/plantation and at 0.5 cm/day near the farm. Deeper layers had much lower specific yield (Sy), 0.1 at −1.5 m depth, compared with top peat soils with Sy up to 0.3. Proximity to drainages extended discharge flow to deeper layers. The results highlighted the severity of peatland drainage impact on most coastal zones of Padang Island, which have intensive drainage networks.

Description: In this study, the snowmelt runoff model (SRM) was employed to estimate the effect of snow on the surface flow of Aji-Chay basin, northwest Iran. Two calibration techniques were adopted to enhance the calibration. The multi-station calibration (MSC) and single-station calibration (SSC) strategies applied to investigate their effects on the modeling accuracy. The runoff coefficients (cs and cr) were selected as calibration parameters because of their uncertainty in such an extended basin. To determine the most substantial input of the model which is the snow-covered area (SCA) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor imagery, MOD10A2 images were collected with spatial and temporal resolutions of 500 meters and 8 days, respectively. The results show an average of 15% improvement in the model performance in the MSC strategy from the data period of 2008–2012. Also, an appropriate agreement with physical characteristics of the study area could be seen for the calibration parameters. The contribution of snowmelt in the river flow reaches its peak in April and May, then with increasing temperature, the contribution decreased gradually. Furthermore, analysis of parameters indicates that the SRM is sensitive to recession coefficient and runoff coefficients.

Description: The UK standard for estimating flood frequencies is outlined by the flood estimation handbook (FEH) and associated updates. Estimates inevitably come with uncertainty due to sampling error as well as model and measurement error. Using resampling approaches adapted to the FEH methods, this paper quantifies the sampling uncertainty for single site, pooled (ungauged), enhanced single site (gauged pooling) and across catchment types. This study builds upon previous progress regarding easily applicable quantifications of FEH-based uncertainty estimation. Where these previous studies have provided simple analytical expressions for quantifying uncertainty for single site and ungauged design flow estimates, this study provides an easy-to-use method for quantifying uncertainty for enhanced single site estimates.

Description: The three-river headwaters region (TRHR) is the birthplace of the Yangtze River, the Yellow River and the Lantsang River in China. Based on the grid surface precipitation data released by China Meteorological Administration (CMA), this paper evaluated the accuracy and error components of four near-real-time satellite precipitation products (GSMaP-NRT, GSMaP-MVK, IMERG-Early and IMERG-Late) in the era of a GPM (Global Precipitation Measurement) in TRHR. The conclusions are as follows: (1) The precipitation in TRHR is concentrated in the east and south, and the precipitation in the west is very low. IMERG (Early and Late) has a good spatial distribution of precipitation, while GSMaP has an obvious spatial smoothing of precipitation distribution, and does not better highlight the local precipitation characteristics. (2) The inversion accuracy of the satellite products is the best in the source region of the Lantsang River, followed by the source region of the Yellow River. The satellite products all show the lower correlation coefficient and serious underestimation of precipitation in the west of the TRHR. In addition, the closer to the west of the TRHR, the lower hit rate and the higher false alarm rate of the satellite products, especially the NRT and MVK products. In the eastern margin of the Yellow River headwater region and the Lantsang River headwater Region, RMSE and overestimated precipitation were higher in NRT and MVK, and FAR was higher in spite of higher POD and CSI. (3) The errors of GSMaP in the source region of the Yellow River and the Lantsang River are mainly caused by misreporting precipitation and overestimating the precipitation level, while the errors of GSMaP in the west of the TRHR are mainly caused by missing measurements of precipitation events. The underestimated precipitation of IMERG mainly comes from the missed measurement of precipitation and the underestimate of precipitation level, and there is no large false precipitation. (4) In addition, we found that the satellite products in the lake distribution area of the TRHR have serious missed precipitation errors, indicating that the GPM satellite products have the poor detection ability of precipitation near plateau lakes. On the whole, the precipitation inversion accuracy of IMERG (Early and Late) products is higher, which can better detect the occurrence of precipitation events, but the estimation of precipitation level is still not accurate. The precision of precipitation of satellite products near inland lakes on the plateau is poor, so the algorithm improvement of new products needs to be further solved in the future.

Description: In agricultural catchments, hydrological processes are highly linked to particle and nutrient loss and can lead to a degradation of the ecological status of the water. Global warming and land use changes influence the hydrological regime. This effect is especially strong in cold regions. In this study, we used long-term hydrological monitoring data (22–26 years) from small agricultural catchments in Norway. We applied a Mann–Kendall trend and wavelet coherence analysis to detect annual and seasonal changes and to evaluate the coupling between runoff, climate, and water sources. The trend analysis showed a significant increase in the annual and seasonal mean air temperature. In all sites, hydrological changes were more difficult to detect. Discharge increased in autumn and winter, but this trend did not hold for all catchments. We found a strong coherence between discharge and precipitation, between discharge and snow water equivalent and discharge and soil water storage capacity. We detected different hydrological regimes of rain and snow-dominated catchments. The catchments responded differently to changes due to their location and inherent characteristics. Our results highlight the importance of studying local annual and seasonal changes in hydrological regimes to understand the effect of climate and the importance for site-specific management plans.

Description: The effects of long-term natural climate change and human activities on runoff generation mechanism in the middle Yellow River Basin are long-standing concerns. This study analyzed the characteristics of hydro-climatic variables in the meso-scale Tuweihe catchment based on the observed data for the period 1956–2016 and a climate elastic method. The spatial distribution of dominant runoff processes (DRP) following land use changes in case of rainfall was identified. The results show significant decreasing trends in annual runoff, whereas slightly downward trends are identified for annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, 1984 is detected as the mutation year of the study period. The average contributions of climate change and human activities to the runoff reduction in the Tuweihe catchment were 33.2% and 66.8%, respectively. In general, the influences of human activities on runoff are applied mostly through the alteration of the catchment characteristics. The dominant runoff processes changes between 1980 and 2015 show significant effects of large-scale soil and water conservation measures in the Tuweihe catchment. We found that Hortonian overland flow (HOF) and fast subsurface flow (SSF1) were the two main processes in 1980 (30.3% and 34.4% respectively), but the proportion of HOF decreased by 9.6% in 2015. The proportions of saturation overland flow (SOF) and SSF have increased to varying degrees, which means that the catchment is more prone to generate subsurface flow processes. Consequently, under similar rainfall conditions, the runoff yield of flood events decreases in the second period.

Description: Sensitivity analysis is a commonly used technique in hydrological modeling for different purposes, including identifying the influential parameters and ranking them. This paper proposes a simplified sensitivity analysis approach by applying the Taguchi design and the ANOVA technique to 2D hydrodynamic flood simulations, which are computationally intensive. This approach offers an effective and practical way to rank the influencing parameters, quantify the contribution of each parameter to the variability of the outputs, and investigate the possible interaction between the input parameters. A number of 2D flood simulations have been carried out using the proposed combinations by Taguchi (L27 and L9 orthogonal arrays) to investigate the influence of four key input parameters, namely mesh size, runoff coefficient, roughness coefficient, and precipitation intensity. The results indicate that the methodology is adequate for sensitivity analysis, and that the precipitation intensity is the dominant parameter. Furthermore, the model calibration based on local variables (cross-sectional water level) can be inaccurate to simulate global variables (flooded area).

Description: Initial condition can impact the forecast precision especially in a real-time forecasting stage. The discrete linear cascade model (DLCM) and the generalized Nash model (GNM), though expressed in different ways, are both the generalization of the Nash cascade model considering the initial condition. This paper investigates the relationship and difference between DLCM and GNM both mathematically and experimentally. Mathematically, the main difference lies in the way to estimate the initial storage state. In the DLCM, the initial state is estimated and not unique, while that in the GNM is observed and unique. Hence, the GNM is the exact solution of the Nash cascade model, while the DLCM is an approximate solution and it can be transformed to the GNM when the initial storage state is calculated by the approach suggested in the GNM. As a discrete solution, the DLCM can be directly applied to the practical discrete streamflow data system. However, the numerical calculation approach such as the finite difference method is often used to make the GNM practically applicable. At last, a test example obtained by the solution of the Saint-Venant equations is used to illustrate this difference. The results show that the GNM provides a unique solution while the DLCM has multiple solutions, whose forecast precision depends upon the estimate accuracy of the current state.

Description: Floods are among the most common natural disasters that if not controlled may cause severe damage and high costs. Flood control and management can be done using structural measures that should be designed based on the flood design studies. The simulation of outflow hydrograph using inflow hydrograph can provide useful information. In this study, a copula-based approach was applied to simulate the outflow hydrograph of various floods, including the Wilson River flood, the River Wye flood and the Karun River flood. In this regard, two-dimensional copula functions and their conditional density were used. The results of evaluating the dependence structure of the studied variables (inflow and outflow hydrographs) using Kendall's tau confirmed the applicability of copula functions for bivariate modeling of inflow and outflow hydrographs. The simulation results were evaluated using the root-mean-square error, the sum of squared errors and the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE). The results showed that the copula-based approach has high performance. In general, the copula-based approach has been able to simulate the peak flow and the rising and falling limbs of the outflow hydrographs well. Also, all simulated data are at the 95% confidence interval. The NSE values for the copula-based approach are 0.99 for all three case studies. According to NSE values and violin plots, it can be seen that the performance of the copula-based approach in simulating the outflow hydrograph in all three case studies is acceptable and shows a good performance.