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Non-Equilibrium Social Science and Policy : Introduction and Essays on New and Changing Paradigms in Socio-Economic Thinking (2017)
Cham, Heidelberg, Dordrecht, London, New York : SpringerOpen
Notes: The overall aim of this book, an outcome of the European FP7 FET Open NESS project, is to contribute to the ongoing effort to put the quantitative social sciences on a proper footing for the 21st century. A key focus is economics, and its implications on policy making, where the still dominant traditional approach increasingly struggles to capture the economic realities we observe in the world today - with vested interests getting too often in the way of real advances. Insights into behavioral economics and modern computing techniques have made possible both the integration of larger information sets and the exploration of disequilibrium behavior. The domain-based chapters of this work illustrate how economic theory is the only branch of social sciences which still holds to its old paradigm of an equilibrium science - an assumption that has already been relaxed in all related fields of research in the light of recent advances in complex and dynamical systems theory and related data mining. The other chapters give various takes on policy and decision making in this context. Written in nontechnical style throughout, with a mix of tutorial and essay-like contributions, this book will benefit all researchers, scientists, professionals and practitioners interested in learning about the "thinking in complexity" to understand how socio-economic systems really work.
Pages: VIII, 232 S.
ISBN: 978-3-319-42422-4
Inflation/unemployment regimes and the instability of the Phillips curve (2009)
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Kiel
Publication Date: 2013-05-22
Description: Using the statistical technique of fuzzy clustering, regimes of inflation and unemployment are explored for the United States, the United Kingdom and Germany between 1871 and 2009. We identify for each country three distinct regimes in inflation/unemployment space. There is considerable similarity across the countries in both the regimes themselves and in the timings of the transitions between regimes. However, the typical rates of inflation and unemployment experienced in the regimes are substantially different. Further, even within a given regime, the results of the clustering show persistent fluctuations in the degree of attachment to that regime of inflation/unemployment observations over time. The economic implications of the results are that, first, the inflation/unemployment relationship experiences from time to time major shifts. Second, that it is also inherently unstable even in the short run. It is likely that the factors which govern the inflation/unemployment trade off are so multi-dimensional that it is hard to see that there is a way of identifying periods of short run Phillips curves which can be assigned to particular historical periods with any degree of accuracy or predictability. The short run may be so short as to be meaningless. The analysis shows that reliance on any kind of trade off between inflation and unemployment for policy purposes is entirely misplaced.
Keywords: C19 ; E31 ; N10 ; ddc:330 ; Phillips curve ; inflation ; structural change ; fuzzy clustering ; Phillips-Kurve ; Inflation ; Arbeitslosigkeit ; Strukturwandel ; Fuzzy Sets ; Clusteranalyse ; USA ; Gro├čbritannien ; Deutschland
Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
Language: eng
Type: doc-type:workingPaper