ALBERT

Description: The forest, savanna, and grassland biomes, and the transitions between them, are expected to undergo major changes in the future, due to global climate change. Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are very useful to understand vegetation dynamics under present climate, and to predict its changes under future conditions. However, several DGVMs display high uncertainty in predicting vegetation in tropical areas. Here we perform a comparative analysis of three different DGVMs (JSBACH, LPJ-GUESS-SPITFIRE and aDGVM) with regard to their representation of the ecological mechanisms and feedbacks that determine the forest, savanna and grassland biomes, in an attempt to bridge the knowledge gap between ecology and global modelling. Model outcomes, obtained including different mechanisms, are compared to observed tree cover along a mean annual precipitation gradient in Africa. Through these comparisons, and by drawing on the large number of recent studies that have delivered new insights into the ecology of tropical ecosystems in general, and of savannas in particular, we identify two main mechanisms that need an improved representation in the DGVMs. The first mechanism includes water limitation to tree growth, and tree-grass competition for water, which are key factors in determining savanna presence in arid and semi-arid areas. The second is a grass-fire feedback, which maintains both forest and savanna occurrences in mesic areas. Grasses constitute the majority of the fuel load, and at the same time benefit from the openness of the landscape after fires, since they recover faster than trees. Additionally, these two mechanisms are better represented when the models also include tree life stages (adults and seedlings), and distinguish between fire-prone and shade-tolerant savanna trees, and fire-resistant and shade-intolerant forest trees. Including these basic elements could improve the predictive ability of the DGVMs, not only under current climate conditions but also and especially under future scenarios.

Description: It is widely accepted that soil water repellency (SWR) is mainly caused by plant-derived hydrophobic organic compounds in soils; such hydrophobic compounds are defined as SWR-markers. However, the detailed influence of SWR-markers on SWR is yet unclear and the knowledge of their original sources is still limited. The aims of this study are to select important SWR-markers to predict SWR based on their correlation with SWR and to determine their origin. In our study, sandy soils with different SWR were collected, along with their covering vegetation, i.e. plant leaves/needles and roots. A sequential extraction procedure was applied to the soils to obtain three organic fractions: DCM / MeOH soluble fraction (D), DCM / MeOH insoluble fraction of IPA / NH3 extract (AI) and DCM / MeOH soluble fraction of IPA / NH3 extract (AS), which were subdivided into ten dominant SWR-marker groups: (D) fatty acid, (D) alcohol, (D) alkane, (AI) fatty acid, (AI) alcohol, (AI) ω-hydroxy fatty acid, (AI) α, ω-dicarboxylic acid, (AS) fatty acid, (AS) alcohol and (AS) ω-hydroxy fatty acid. Waxes and biopolyesters of the vegetation were also sequentially extracted from plants. In short, the soils with higher SWR have significantly higher relative concentrations of (AS) alcohols. A number of indications suggest that (AS) alcohols are mainly derived from roots and most likely produced by microbial hydrolysis of biopolyesters/suberins. In addition, the strong correlation between the biomarkers of plant tissues and SWR-markers in soils suggests that it is more accurate to predict SWR of topsoils using ester-bound alcohols from roots, and to predict SWR of subsoils using root-derived ω-hydroxy fatty acids and α, ω-dicarboxylic acids. Our analysis indicates that plant roots have a primary role influencing SWR relative to plant leaves.

Description: It is widely accepted that soil water repellency (SWR) is mainly caused by plant-derived hydrophobic organic compounds in soils; such hydrophobic compounds are defined as SWR markers. However, the detailed influence of SWR markers on SWR is yet unclear and the knowledge of their original sources is still limited. The aims of this study are to select important SWR markers to predict SWR based on their correlation with SWR and to determine their origin. In our study, sandy soils with different SWR were collected, along with their covering vegetation, i.e. plant leaves/needles and roots. A sequential extraction procedure was applied to the soils to obtain three organic fractions: dichloromethane (DCM)/MeOH soluble fraction (D), DCM/MeOH insoluble fraction of isopropanol/ammonia solution (IPA/NH3) extract (AI) and DCM/MeOH soluble fraction of IPA/NH3 extract (AS), which were subdivided into 10 dominant SWR marker groups: D fatty acid, D alcohol, D alkane, AI fatty acid, AI alcohol, AI ω-hydroxy fatty acid, AI α,ω-dicarboxylic acid, AS fatty acid, AS alcohol and AS ω-hydroxy fatty acid. Waxes and biopolyesters of the vegetation were also sequentially extracted from plants. The soils with higher SWR have significantly higher relative concentrations of AS alcohols. A number of indications suggest that AS alcohols are mainly derived from roots and most likely produced by microbial hydrolysis of biopolyesters (mainly suberins). In addition, the strong correlation between the biomarkers of plant tissues and SWR markers in soils suggests that it is more accurate to predict SWR of topsoils using ester-bound alcohols from roots, and to predict SWR of subsoils using root-derived ω-hydroxy fatty acids and α,ω-dicarboxylic acids. Considering the sandy soils studied here, the relationships we obtained need to be tested for other types of soils. Our analysis indicates that plant roots have a primary role influencing SWR relative to plant leaves.

Description: The Romans were perhaps the most impressive exponents of water resource management in preindustrial times with irrigation and virtual water trade facilitating unprecedented urbanization and socioeconomic stability for hundreds of years in a region of highly variable climate. To understand Roman water resource management in response to urbanization and climate variability, a Virtual Water Network of the Roman World was developed. Using this network we find that irrigation and virtual water trade increased Roman resilience to interannual climate variability. However, urbanization arising from virtual water trade likely pushed the Empire closer to the boundary of its water resources, led to an increase in import costs, and eroded its resilience to climate variability in the long term. In addition to improving our understanding of Roman water resource management, our cost–distance-based analysis illuminates how increases in import costs arising from climatic and population pressures are likely to be distributed in the future global virtual water network.

Description: The Romans were perhaps the most impressive exponents of water resource management in preindustrial times with irrigation and virtual water trade facilitating unprecedented urbanisation and socioeconomic stability for hundreds of years in a region of highly variable climate. To understand Roman water resource management in response to urbanisation and climate variability, a Virtual Water Network of the Roman World was developed. Using this network we find that irrigation and virtual water trade increased Roman resilience to climate variability in the short term. However, urbanisation arising from virtual water trade likely pushed the Empire closer to the boundary of its water resources, led to an increase in import costs, and reduced its resilience to climate variability in the long-term. In addition to improving our understanding of Roman water resource management, our cost-distance based analysis illuminates how increases in import costs arising from climatic and population pressures are likely to be distributed in the future global virtual water network.

Description: Traditionally, long term predictions of river discharges and their extremes include constant relationships between landscape properties and model parameters. However, due to co-evolution of many of landscape properties more sophisticated methods to quantify future landscape-hydrological model relationships are likely necessary. As a first step towards such an approach we use the Brutsaert and Nieber (1977) analysis method to characterize streamflow recession behaviour of ≈ 200 Swedish catchments within the context of global change and landscape co-evolution. Results suggest that the Brutsaert–Nieber parameters are strongly linked to the climate, soil, land-use and their interdependencies. Many catchments show a trend towards more non-linear behaviour, meaning faster initial recession, but also slower recession towards baseflow. This trend has been found to be independent from climate change. Instead, we suggest that land cover change, both natural (restoration of natural soil profiles in forested areas) and anthropogenic (reforestation and optimized water management), is probably responsible. Both change types are characterised by system adaptation and change, towards more optimal ecohydrological conditions, suggesting landscape co-evolution is at play. Given the observed magnitudes of recession changes during the past 50 years, predictions of future river discharge critically need to include effects of landscape co-evolution. The interconnections between the controls of land cover and climate on river recession behaviour, as we have quantified in this paper, provide first-order handles to do so.

Description: Multiple states of woody cover under similar climate conditions are found in both conceptual models and observations. Due to the limitation of the observed woody cover data set, it is unclear whether the observed bimodality is caused by the presence of multiple stable states or is due to dynamic growth processes of vegetation. In this study, we combine a woody cover data set with an aboveground biomass data set to investigate the simultaneous occurrences of savanna and forest states under the same precipitation forcing. To interpret the results we use a recently developed vegetation dynamics model (the Balanced Optimality Structure Vegetation Model), in which the effect of fires is included. Our results show that bimodality also exists in aboveground biomass and retrieved vegetation structure. In addition, the observed savanna distribution can be understood as derived from a stable state and a slightly drifting (transient) state, the latter having the potential to shift to the forest state. Finally, the results indicate that vegetation structure (horizontal vs. vertical leaf extent) is a crucial component for the existence of bimodality.

Description: Multiple states of woody cover under similar climate conditions are found in both conceptual models and observations. Due to the limitation of the observed woody cover data set, it is unclear whether the observed bimodality is caused by the presence of multiple stable states or is due to dynamic growth processes of vegetation. In this study, we combine a woody cover data set with an above ground biomass data set to investigate the simultaneous occurrences of savanna and forest states under different precipitation forcing. To interpret the results we use a recently developed vegetation dynamics model (the Balanced Optimality Structure Vegetation Model), in which the effect of fires is included. Our results show that bimodality also exists in above ground biomass and retrieved vegetation structure. In addition, the observed savanna distribution can be understood as derived from a stable state and a slightly drifting (transient) state, the latter having the potential to shift to the forest state. Finally, the results indicate that vegetation structure (horizontal vs. vertical leaf extent) is a crucial component for the existence of bimodality.

Description: This paper studies the control of the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP) on atmospheric moisture transport across the Central American isthmus as a potential feedback on rapid glacial climate fluctuations. Defined as a region of the Atlantic with surface temperatures above 28.5 °C, the modern AWP expands from the tropical Northwest Atlantic up to the Gulf of Mexico during boreal summer. Due to enhanced deep convection over these warm waters, changes in AWP area cause inverse changes in the strength of the Caribbean low level jet. This low level jet drives atmospheric moisture transport from the Atlantic across the Central American isthmus towards the Pacific. Changes in cross-isthmus moisture transport, potentially related to the AWP, may therefore have affected North Atlantic salinity and the partly density driven Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the glacial. Based on available proxy evidence we hypothesize that the AWP evolved independent of extratropical North Atlantic temperatures during most of the last glacial, except during periods of AMOC collapse when intense extratropical North Atlantic cooling may have limited eastward AWP expansion. We investigate the implications of this hypothesis for cross-isthmus moisture transport by simulating the coupled ocean-atmosphere response to AMOC collapse and the atmospheric sensitivity to additional variations in AWP area. Our simulations suggest that a decrease in AWP area may increase cross-isthmus moisture transport, whereas extratropical North Atlantic cooling beside a persistent AWP may decrease cross-isthmus moisture transport. Interpretation of these effects throughout an idealized Bond Cycle suggests a positive feedback of reduced cross-isthmus moisture transport in response to Greenland cooling prior to AMOC collapse. During AMOC collapse, when AWP expansion is proposed to have been inhibited, this positive feedback turns negative as enhanced cross-isthmus moisture transport may help AMOC recovery. Supported by reconstructed sea surface salinity changes, we propose that the AWP may have played a key role in the glacial climate by acting as a gatekeeper to regulate moisture transport across the Central American isthmus.

Description: We present a reconstruction of the change in climatic humidity around the Mediterranean between 3000–1000 yr BP. Using a range of proxy archives and model simulations we demonstrate that climate during this period was typified by a millennial-scale seesaw in climatic humidity between Spain and Israel on one side and the Central Mediterranean and Turkey on the other, similar to precipitation anomalies associated with the East Atlantic/West Russia pattern in current climate. We find that changes in the position and intensity of the jet stream indicated by our analysis correlate with millennial changes in North Atlantic sea surface temperature. A model simulation indicates the proxies of climatic humidity used in our analysis were unlikely to be influenced by climatic aridification caused by deforestation during the Roman Period. That finding is supported by an analysis of the distribution of archaeological sites in the Eastern Mediterranean which exhibits no evidence that human habitation distribution changed since ancient times as a result of climatic aridification. Therefore we conclude that changes in climatic humidity over the Mediterranean during the Roman Period were primarily caused by a modification of the jet stream linked to sea surface temperature change in the North Atlantic. Based on our findings, we propose that ocean-atmosphere coupling may have contributed to regulating Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation intensity during the period of analysis.