ALBERT

Description: The study of surface-atmosphere interactions has begun with studies of the effect of altering the ocean and land boundaries. A ten year simulation of global climate using observed sea surface temperature anomalies has begun using the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM1). The results for low resolution (R15) were computed for the first 8 years of the simulation and compared with the observed surface temperatures and the MSU (Microwave Sounding Unit) observations of tropospheric temperature. A simulation at higher resolution (T42) was done to ascertain the effect of interactive soil hydrology on the system response to an El Nino sea surface temperature perturbation. Initial analysis of this simulations was completed.

Description: The geophysical fluid flow simulation code, GEOSIM, is being used to study the phenomenon of vacillation in the baroclinic annulus. Having verified that the code predicts vacillation for the same points as the experiments, the work is aiming toward explaining the mechanics of vacillation and pointing out some of the sensitivities of the results to the numerical method. Researchers are finding that there is a structural change associated with amplitude vacillation, where the structural changes are in the vertical. The results disagree with the premise of Lindzen et al, that the vacillation is due to constructive and destructive interference of neutral modes with different phase speeds. The researchers are continuing to study the Spacelab 3 Geophysical Fluid Flow Cell (GFFC) results with horizontal temperature gradients and heating from below. GEOSIM has been used to compute a wide range of cases, and these are being compared with the observations. The computations and observations compare well, and the model is being used to extend the results beyond cases studied in the experiments and to study the mechanics and predictability of the flows. The study of fully nonlinear baroclinic instability using the GFFC apparatus is proceeding with the numerical code. While the first instability that occurs is of planetary scale, secondary instabilities consisting of small-scale, penetrative convection occurs where cold fluid flows over a warm surface. The simultaneous modeling of the planetary scale and the convective scale is possible because of the nonhydrostatic formulation of the model. Some of these results have been animated on the Stardent computer, which shows the explosive nature of the small-scale convection.

Description: Short term strain rate change, creep and relaxation tests were performed in an MTS computer controlled servohydraulic testing machine. Aging and recovery were found to be insignificant for test times not exceeding 30 hrs. The material functions and constants of the theory were identified from results of strain rate change tests. Numerical integration of the theory for relaxation and creep tests showed good predictive capabilities of the viscoplasticity theory based on overstress.

Description: A fully nonlinear 3-dimensional numerical model (GEOSIM), previously developed and validated for several cases of geophysical fluid flow, has been used to investigate the dynamical behavior of laboratory experiments of fluid flows similar to those of the Earth's atmosphere. The phenomena investigated are amplitude vacillation, and the response of the fluid system to uneven heating and cooling. The previous year's work included hysteresis in the transition between axisymmetric and wave flow. Investigation is also continuing of the flows in the Geophysical Fluid Flow Cell (GFFC), a low-gravity Spacelab experiment. Much of the effort in the past year has been spent in validation of the model under a wide range of external parameters including nonlinear flow regimes. With the implementation of a 3-dimensional upwind differencing scheme, higher spectral resolution, and a shorter time step, the model has been found capable of predicting the majority of flow regimes observed in one complete series of baroclinic annulus experiments of Pfeffer and co-workers. Detailed analysis of amplitude vacillation has revealed that the phase splitting described in the laboratory experiments occurs in some but not all cases. Through the use of animation of the models output, a vivid 3-dimensional view of the phase splitting was shown to the audience of the Southeastern Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Conference in March of this year. A study on interannual variability was made using GEOSIM with periodic variations in the thermal forcing. Thus far, the model has not predicted a chaotic behavior as observed in the experiments, although there is a sensitivity in the wavenumber selection to the initial conditions. Work on this subject, and on annulus experiments with non-axisymmetric thermal heating, will continue. The comparison of GEOSIM's predictions will result from the Spacelab 3 GFFC experiments continued over the past year, on a 'back-burner' basis. At this point, the study (in the form of a draft of a journal article) is nearly completed. The results from GEOSIM compared very well with the experiments, and the use of the model allows the demonstration of flow mechanics that were not possible with the experimental data. For example, animation of the model output shows that the forking of the spiral bands is a transient phenomenon, due to the differential east-west propagation of convection bands from different latitudes.

Description: Of the two finite-element models presently used to investigate the effect of the conservation of integral invariants, by means of finite-element discretization schemes of the shallow-water equations, in order to serve as a paradigm of long-term atmospheric-model integrations, the first employs rectangular elements and conserves total energy, while the second uses triangular elements and a high-accuracy two-stage Numerov-Galerkin method. Attention is given to critical times for numerical nonlinear instability, as well as to the determination of the critical degree of dissipation entailed by the achievement of stable long-term integrations. Relative computational efficiency and accuracy comparisons are presented for the two finite-element schemes.

Description: Computations were completed of transition curves in the conventional annulus, including hysteresis effect. The model GEOSIM was used to compute the transition between axisymmetric flow and baroclinic wave flow in the conventional annulus experiments. Thorough testing and documentation of the GEOSIM code were also completed. The Spacelab 3 results from the Geophysical Fluid Flow Cell (GFFC) were reviewed and numerical modeling was performed of many of the cases with horizontal temperature gradients as well as heating from below, with different rates of rotation. A numerical study of the lower transition to axisymmetric flow in the baroclinic annulus was performed using GEOSIM.

Description: When averaged over the tropical oceans (30deg N/S), latent heat flux anomalies derived from passive microwave satellite measurements as well as reanalyses and climate models driven with specified seal-surface temperatures show considerable disagreement in their decadal trends. These estimates range from virtually no trend to values over 8.4 W/sq m decade. Satellite estimates also tend to have a larger interannual signal related to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events than do reanalyses or model simulations. An analysis of wind speed and humidity going into bulk aerodynamic calculations used to derive these fluxes reveals several error sources. Among these are apparent remaining intercalibration issues affecting passive microwave satellite 10 m wind speeds and systematic biases in retrieval of near-surface humidity. Likewise, reanalyses suffer from discontinuities in availability of assimilated data that affect near surface meteorological variables. The results strongly suggest that current latent heat flux trends are overestimated.

Description: One notable aspect of Earth's climate is that although the planet appears to be very close to radiative balance at top-of-atmosphere (TOA), the atmosphere itself and underlying surface are not. Profound exchanges of energy between the atmosphere and oceans, land and cryosphere occur over a range of time scales. Recent evidence from broadband satellite measurements suggests that even these TOA fluxes contain some detectable variations. Our ability to measure and reconstruct radiative fluxes at the surface and at the top of atmosphere is improving rapidly. One question is 'How consistent, physically, are these diverse remotely-sensed data sets'? The answer is of crucial importance to understanding climate processes, improving physical models, and improving remote sensing algorithms. In this work we will evaluate two recently released estimates of radiative fluxes, focusing primarily on surface estimates. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project 'FD' radiative flux profiles are available from mid-1983 to near present and have been constructed by driving the radiative transfer physics from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global model with ISCCP clouds and TOVS (TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder)thermodynamic profiles. Full and clear sky SW and LW fluxes are produced. A similar product from the NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget Project using different radiative flux codes and thermodynamics from the NASA/Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-1) assimilation model makes a similar calculation of surface fluxes. However this data set currently extends only through 1995. We also employ precipitation measurements from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Finally, ocean evaporation estimates from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) are considered as well as derived evaporation from the NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Description: Program verified by comparisons with both experimental and numerical studies. GEOSIM implements numerical model simulating geophysical fluid flow for wide range of problems. Allows for more accurate control over experimental conditions and provides complete data source for performing diagnostic studies. Used by experienced and/or professional fluid dynamicists. Written in FORTRAN 77.

Description: Large-scale divergent circulations are part of the atmospheric dynamic response to diabatic heating from condensation, radiative processes, and surface energy fluxes. Vertical motion and the associated divergent wind is thus intimately tied to the hydrologic cycle and the global beat balance. Despite its importance, the divergent circulation is too small in comparison to the rotational flow to measure directly with any accuracy. Vertical motions are recovered diagnostically from reanalyses and, as such, are subject to shortcomings in model physics, numerics, and data availability. While reanalysis estimates of tropical divergent circulations are much improved over those from the Global Weather Experiment, there are still substantial differences between products from operational centers. This is because these circulations are still forced largely by model physics and only secondarily by observations. In order to produce a refined estimate of tropical divergence and its interannual variability we have used a number of remotely-sensed data sets along with variational constraints to improve upon reanalysis estimates. Among these are: precipitation from SSM/I and GPCP, TOVS Path-A vertical cloud distributions; ISCCP radiative cooling rates; TOA radiative fluxes from ERBS, surface radiative fluxes from the SRB project, and surface latent and sensible flux estimates from SSM/I. The TOVS Path-A data constrain the divergent outflow in precipitating regions to have the same vertical structure as observed cloudiness. Using integral constraints for moisture, heat, and mass balance, we retrieve consistent divergent wind flows. We examine the ability of this type analysis to capture regional details of ENSO related perturbations to the divergent wind and associated tropical energy balance. Precipitation from satellite is found to be the major constraint in supplying this horizontal structure. We also consider the ability of this analysis to quantify integrated (land vs. ocean) fluctuations in the global monsoonal flow and energy balance. This depends, of course, on the error characteristics of the data constraints. Some estimate of these properties and their relative importance is provided.