ALBERT

Description: A new version of the coupled modeling and analysis system used to produce near real time subseasonal to seasonal forecasts was recently released by the NASA/Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. The new version runs at higher atmospheric resolution than the previous, (approximately 1/2 degree globally), contains a substantially improved model description of the cryosphere, and includes additional interactive earth system model components (aerosol model). In addition, the Ocean data assimilation system has been replaced with a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter, and now includes the assimilation of along-track sea surface height. Here will describe the new system, along with the plans for the future (GEOS S2S-3_0) which will include a higher resolution ocean model and more interactive earth system model components (interactive vegetation, biomass burning from fires). We will also present results from a series of retrospective seasonal forecasts. Results show significant improvements in surface temperatures over much of the northern hemisphere and a much improved prediction of sea ice extent in both hemispheres. Analysis of the ensemble spread shows improvements relative to the previous system, including generally better reliability. The precipitation forecast skill is comparable to previous S2S systems, and the only tradeoff is an increased "double ITCZ", which is expected as we go to higher atmospheric resolution.

Description: In this presentation we present an overview of the GMAO Sub-Seasonal and Seasonal Prediction System, current users and products, and methods for validation and evaluation of the system. Methods for evaluation include baseline evaluations metrics, the ability to simulate key modes of variability, and evaluation of new development areas.

Description: A new version of the modeling and analysis system used to produce sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts has just been released by the NASA Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. The new version runs at higher atmospheric resolution (approximately 12 degree globally), contains a substantially improved model description of the cryosphere, and includes additional interactive earth system model components (aerosol model). In addition, the Ocean data assimilation system has been replaced with a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter. Here will describe the new system, along with the plans for the future (GEOS S2S-3_0) which will include a higher resolution ocean model and more interactive earth system model components (interactive vegetation, biomass burning from fires). We will also present results from a free-running coupled simulation with the new system and results from a series of retrospective seasonal forecasts. Results from retrospective forecasts show significant improvements in surface temperatures over much of the northern hemisphere and a much improved prediction of sea ice extent in both hemispheres. The precipitation forecast skill is comparable to previous S2S systems, and the only trade off is an increased double ITCZ, which is expected as we go to higher atmospheric resolution.

Description: Immersion freezing is likely involved in the initiation of precipitation and determines to large extent the phase partitioning in convective clouds. Theoretical models commonly used to describe immersion freezing in atmospheric models are based on the classical nucleation theory which however neglects important interactions near the immersed particle that may affect nucleation rates. This work introduces a new theory of immersion freezing based on two premises. First, immersion ice nucleation is mediated by the modification of the properties of water near the particle-liquid interface, rather than by the geometry of the ice germ. Second, the same mechanism that leads to the decrease in the work of germ formation also decreases the mobility of water molecules near the immersed particle. These two premises allow establishing general thermodynamic constraints to the ice nucleation rate. Analysis of the new theory shows that active sites likely trigger ice nucleation, but they do not control the overall nucleation rate nor the probability of freezing. It also suggests that materials with different ice nucleation efficiency may exhibit similar freezing temperatures under similar conditions but differ in their sensitivity to particle surface area and cooling rate. Predicted nucleation rates show good agreement with observations for a diverse set of materials including dust, black carbon and bacterial ice nucleating particles. The application of the new theory within the NASA Global Earth System Model (GEOS-5) is also discussed.

Description: In this work a new theory of nucleation is developed and used to investigate the effect of water activity on the formation of ice within super-cooled droplets. The new theory is based on a novel concept where the interface is assumed to be made of liquid molecules trapped by the solid matrix. Using this concept new expressions are developed for the critical ice germ size and the nucleation work, with explicit dependencies on temperature and water activity. However unlike previous approaches, the new theory does not depend on the interfacial tension between liquid and ice. Comparison against experimental results shows that the new theory is able to reproduce the observed effect of water activity on nucleation rate and freezing temperature. It allows for the first time a theoretical derivation of the constant shift in water activity between melting and nucleation. The new theory offers a consistent thermodynamic view of ice nucleation, simple enough to be applied in atmospheric models of cloud formation.

Description: This work presents the development of a two-moment cloud microphysics scheme within the version 5 of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5). The scheme includes the implementation of a comprehensive stratiform microphysics module, a new cloud coverage scheme that allows ice supersaturation and a new microphysics module embedded within the moist convection parameterization of GEOS-5. Comprehensive physically-based descriptions of ice nucleation, including homogeneous and heterogeneous freezing, and liquid droplet activation are implemented to describe the formation of cloud particles in stratiform clouds and convective cumulus. The effect of preexisting ice crystals on the formation of cirrus clouds is also accounted for. A new parameterization of the subgrid scale vertical velocity distribution accounting for turbulence and gravity wave motion is developed. The implementation of the new microphysics significantly improves the representation of liquid water and ice in GEOS-5. Evaluation of the model shows agreement of the simulated droplet and ice crystal effective and volumetric radius with satellite retrievals and in situ observations. The simulated global distribution of supersaturation is also in agreement with observations. It was found that when using the new microphysics the fraction of condensate that remains as liquid follows a sigmoidal increase with temperature which differs from the linear increase assumed in most models and is in better agreement with available observations. The performance of the new microphysics in reproducing the observed total cloud fraction, longwave and shortwave cloud forcing, and total precipitation is similar to the operational version of GEOS-5 and in agreement with satellite retrievals. However the new microphysics tends to underestimate the coverage of persistent low level stratocumulus. Sensitivity studies showed that the simulated cloud properties are robust to moderate variation in cloud microphysical parameters. However significant sensitivity in ice cloud properties was found to variation in the dispersion of the ice crystal size distribution and the critical size for ice autoconversion. The implementation of the new microphysics leads to a more realistic representation of cloud processes in GEOS-5 and allows the linkage of cloud properties to aerosol emissions.

Description: In this presentation we present an overview of the GMAO Sub-Seasonal and Seasonal Prediction System with a focus on the computing time and resources and actual time it takes to complete a full set of hindcasts. The goal is to come up with some solutions to allow us to run more ensemble members for the next version of the system which will be higher resolution and take many more resources.