ALBERT

Description: Ozone observations from ozonesondes, the lidars aboard the DC-8, in situ ozone measurements from the ER-2, and satellite ozone measurements from Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement III (POAM) were used to assess ozone loss during the Sage III Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment (SOLVE) 1999-2000 Arctic campaign. Two methods of analysis were used. In the first method a simple regression analysis is performed on the ozonesonde and POAM measurements within the vortex. In the second method, the ozone measurements from all available ozone data were injected into a free running diabatic trajectory model and carried forward in time from December 1 to March 15. Vortex ozone loss was then estimated by comparing the ozone values of those parcels initiated early in the campaign with those parcels injected later in the campaign. Despite the variety of observational techniques used during SOLVE, the measurements provide a fairly consistent picture. Over the whole vortex, the largest ozone loss occurs between 550 and 400 K potential temperatures (approximately 23-16 km) with over 1.5 ppmv lost by March 15, the end of the SOLVE mission period. An ozone loss rate of 0.04-0.05 ppmv/day was computed for March 15. Ozonesondes launched after March 15 suggest that an additional 0.5 ppmv or more ozone was lost between March 15 and April 1. The small disagreement between ozonesonde and POAM analysis of January ozone loss is found to be due to biases in vortex sampling. POAM makes most of its solar occultation measurements at the vortex edge during January 2000 which bias samples toward air parcels that have been exposed to sunlight and likely do experience ozone loss. Ozonesonde measurements and the trajectory technique use observations that are more distributed within the interior of the vortex. Thus the regression analysis of the POAM measurements tends to overestimate mid-winter vortex ozone loss. Finally, our loss calculations are broadly consistent with other loss computations using ER-2 tracer data and MLS satellite data, but we find no evidence for the 1992 high mid-January loss reported using the Match technique.

Description: The Antarctic ozone hole develops each year and culminates by early spring (late September - early October). The severity of the hole has been assessed from satellites using the minimum total ozone value from the October monthly mean (depth of the hole), calculating the average area coverage during this September-October period, and by estimating ozone mass deficit. Profile information shows that ozone is completely destroyed in the 14-2 1 km layer by early October. Ozone is mainly destroyed by halogen (chlorine and bromine) catalytic cycles, and these losses are modulated by temperature variations. Because atmospheric halogen levels are responding to international agreements that limit or phase out production, the amount of halogens in the stratosphere should decrease over the next few decades. Both models and projections of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) into the 21St century reveal that polar ozone levels should recover in the 2060- 2070 period. In this talk, we will review current projections of polar ozone recovery. Using models and ODs projections, we explore both the past, near future (2008-2025), and far future (〉 2025) levels of polar ozone. Finally, we will discuss various factors that complicate recovery such as greenhouse gas changes (e.g., cooling in the upper stratosphere) and the acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation.

Description: The ozone hole is a massive loss of ozone that annually occurs over Antarctica during the Austral spring (August-November). Man-made chlorine and bromine compounds cause the ozone hole. As opposed to local urban pollution, the hole illustrates how man-made chemicals can affect the atmosphere over enormous regions remote from their release point. These chlorine and bromine gases have long lifetimes in the atmosphere; hence, the ozone hole will slowly recover into the next few decades. In this talk I will briefly cover some of the history of the Antarctic ozone hole and the theory behind the phenomena. I will then discuss the recovery of ozone over Antarctica. State-of-the-art computer models project the recovery of the ozone hole to 1980 levels by about 2050. However, this recovery may be affected by greenhouse warming.

Description: The Antarctic ozone hole develops each year and culminates by early Spring. Antarctic ozone values have been monitored since 1979 using satellite observations from the TOMS instrument. The severity of the hole has been assessed from TOMS using the minimum total ozone value from the October monthly mean (depth of the hole) and by calculating the average size during the September-October period. Ozone is mainly destroyed by halogen catalytic cycles, and these losses are modulated by temperature variations in the collar of the polar lower stratospheric vortex. In this presentation, we show the relationships of halogens and temperature to both the size and depth of the hole. Because atmospheric halogen levels are responding to international agreements that limit or phase out production, the amount of halogens in the stratosphere should decrease over the next few decades. Using projections of halogen levels combined with age-of-air estimates, we find that the ozone hole is recovering at an extremely slow rate and that large ozone holes will regularly recur over the next 2 decades. We will show estimates of both when the ozone hole will begin to show first signs of recovery, and when the hole will fully recover to pre-1980 levels.

Description: Since the discovery of the Antarctic ozone hole, a great deal of attention has been focused on the polar regions to both identify the chemistry and physics of the large losses, and to provide an understanding of the future of polar ozone. In this review talk, I will discuss the secular trends of ozone in both the Antarctic and Arctic regions, and I will review some of the principal research results of the last few years. In particular, I will emphasize some of the results from the SOLVE-THESEO 2000 campaign that occurred over the course of the winter of 1999-2000.

Description: The Antarctic ozone hole develops each year and culminates by early spring (late September - early October). Antarctic ozone values have been monitored since 1979 using satellite observations from the TOMS instrument. The severity of the hole has been assessed from TOMS using the minimum total ozone value from the October monthly mean (depth of the hole) and by calculating the average area coverage during this September-October period. Ozone is mainly destroyed by halogen (chlorine and bromine) catalytic cycles, and these losses are modulated by temperature variations in the collar of the polar lower stratospheric vortex. In this talk, I will show the relationships of halogens and temperature to both the size and depth of the hole. Because atmospheric halogen levels are responding to international agreements that limit or phase out production, the amount of halogens in the stratosphere should decrease over the next few decades. Using projections of halogen levels combined with age-of-air estimates, we find that the ozone hole is recovering at an extremely slow rate and that large ozone holes will regularly recur over the next 2 decades. The ozone hole will begin to show first signs of recovery in about 2023, and the hole will fully recover to pre-1980 levels in approximately 2070. This 2070 recovery is 20 years later than recent projections. I will also discuss current assessments of mid-latitude ozone recovery.

Description: The stratospheric ozone hole, an annual occurrence during austral spring, is caused by heterogeneous conversion of hydrogen chloride and chlorine nitrate to chlorine radicals. These reactions take place of polar stratospheric cloud particles in the cold, isolate Antarctic winter vortex. The chlorine radicals participate in chemical reactions that rapidly deplete ozone when sunlight returns at the end of polar night. International agreements eliminated production of the culprit anthropogenic chlorofluorocarbons in the late 1990s, but due to their long stratospheric lifetime (50-100 years), the ozone hole will continue its annual appearance for years to come.

Description: This report assesses the potential atmospheric impacts of a proposed fleet of high-speed civil transport (HSCT) aircraft. The purpose of the report is to assess the effects of HSCT's on atmospheric composition and climate in order to provide a scientific basis for making technical, commercial, and environmental policy decisions regarding the HSCT fleet. The work summarized here was carried out as part of NASA's Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Project (a component of the High-Speed Research Program) as well as other NASA, U.S., and international research programs. The principal focus is on change in stratospheric ozone concentrations. The impact on climate change is also a concern. The report describes progress in understanding atmospheric processes, the current state of understanding of HSCT emissions, numerical model predictions of HSCT impacts, the principal uncertainties in atmospheric predictions, and the associated sensitivities in predicted effects of HSCT's.

Description: This report assesses the potential atmospheric impacts of a proposed fleet of high-speed civil transport (HSCT) aircraft. The purpose of the report is to assess the effects of HSCT's on atmospheric composition and climate in order to provide a scientific basis for making technical, commercial, and environmental policy decisions regarding the HSCT fleet. The work summarized here was carried out as part of NASA's Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Project (a component of the High-Speed Research Program) as well as other NASA, U.S., and international research programs. The principal focus is on change in stratospheric ozone concentrations. The impact on climate change is also a concern. The report describes progress in understanding atmospheric processes, the current state of understanding of HSCT emissions, numerical model predictions of HSCT impacts, the principal uncertainties in atmospheric predictions, and the associated sensitivities in predicted effects of HSCT'S.

Description: Total ozone observations from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) instruments during March 1997 revealed an extensive region of low column densities in the Arctic region centered near the north pole. Values were below 250 Dobson units for nearly a two week period during this period, and were correlated with the position of the northern lower stratospheric polar vortex. The March 1997 average total ozone column densities were more than 30% lower than the average of column densities observed during the 1979-1982 March period. Both the northern spring seasons of 1998 and 1999 have shown much higher levels of total ozone. In this presentation, we will discuss the causes of the low total ozone values in 1997 and contrast those low values with the higher 1998 and 1999 observations. I will additionally discuss the just completed SOLVE campaign and the March 2000 ozone values.