ALBERT

Beschreibung: The determination of an accurate quantitative understanding of the role of tropospheric aerosols in the earth's radiation budget is extremely important because forcing by anthropogenic aerosols presently represents one of the most uncertain aspects of climate models. Here the authors present a systematic comparison of three different analyses of satellite-retrieved aerosol optical depth based on the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)- measured radiances with optical depths derived from six different models. Also compared are the model-derived clear-sky reflected shortwave radiation with satellite-measured reflectivities derived from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) satellite. The three different satellite-derived optical depths differ by between -0.10 and 0.07 optical depth units in comparison to the average of the three analyses depending on latitude and month, but the general features of the retrievals are similar. The models differ by between -0.09 and +0.16 optical depth units from the average of the models. Differences between the average of the models and the average of the satellite analyses range over -0.11 to +0.05 optical depth units. These differences are significant since the annual average clear-sky radiative forcing associated with the difference between the average of the models and the average of the satellite analyses ranges between -3.9 and 0.7 W m(exp -2) depending on latitude and is -1.7 W m (exp -2) on a global average annual basis. Variations in the source strengths of dimethylsulfide (DMS)-derived aerosols and sea salt aerosols can explain differences between the models, and between the models and satellite retrievals of up to 0.2 optical depth units. The comparison of model-generated reflected shortwave radiation and ERBE-measured shortwave radiation is similar in character as a function of latitude to the analysis of modeled and satellite-retrieved optical depths, but the differences between the modeled clear-sky reflected flux and the ERBE clear-sky reflected flux is generally larger than that inferred from the difference between the models and the AVHRR optical depths, especially at high latitudes. The difference between the mean of the models and the ERBE-analyzed clear-sky flux is 1.6 W m(exp -2). The overall comparison indicates that the model-generated aerosol optical depth is systematically lower than that inferred from measurements between the latitudes of 10 and 30 deg S. It is not likely that the shortfall is due to small values of the sea salt optical depth because increases in this component would create modeled optical depths that are larger than those from satellites in the region north of 30 deg N and near 50 deg S. Instead, the source strengths for DMS and biomass aerosols in the models may be too low. Firm conclusions, however, will require better retrieval procedures for the satellites, including better cloud screening procedures, further improvement of the model's treatment of aerosol transport and removal, and a better determination of aerosol source strengths.

Beschreibung: I will represent the AeroCom community to the Atmospheric Brown Cloud (ABC) workshop. I will summarize the activities and results from AeroCom Phase I activities in the past 8 years and introduce the new results and activities in the current AeroCom Phase II. We hope to coordinate some activities with the ABC community to share model output and data access for model evaluations, comparisons, and assessment.

Beschreibung: Aerosol particles, also known as PM2.5 (particle diameter less than 2.5 pm) and PM10 (particle diameter less than 10 pm), are one of the key atmospheric components that determines air quality. Yet, air quality forecasts for PM are still in their infancy and remain a challenging task. It is difficult to simply relate PM levels to local meteorological conditions, and large uncertainties exist in regional air quality model emission inventories and initial and boundary conditions. Especially challenging are periods when a significant amount of aerosol comes from outside the regional modeling domain through long-range transport. In the past few years, NASA has launched several satellites with global aerosol measurement capabilities, providing large-scale chemical weather pictures. NASA has also supported development of global models which simulate atmospheric transport and transformation processes of important atmospheric gas and aerosol species. I will present the current modeling and satellite capabilities for PM2.5 studies, the possibilities and challenges in using satellite data for PM2.5 forecasts, and the needs of future remote sensing data for improving air quality monitoring and modeling.

Beschreibung: Aerosol climate forcing is one of the largest uncertainties in assessing the anthropogenic impact on the global climate system. This uncertainty arises from the poorly quantified aerosol sources, especially black carbon emissions, our limited knowledge of aerosol mixing state and optical properties, and the consequences of intercontinental transport of aerosols and their precursors. Here we use a global model GOCART to simulate atmospheric aerosols, including sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, dust, and sea salt, from anthropogenic, biomass burning, and natural sources. We compare the model calculated aerosol extinction and absorption with those quantities from the ground-based sun photometer measurements from AERONET at several different wavelengths and the field observations from ACE-Asia, and model calculated total aerosol optical depth and fine mode fractions with the MODIS satellite retrieval. We will also estimate the intercontinental transport of pollution and dust aerosols from their source regions to other areas in different seasons.

Beschreibung: The Georgia Tech/Goddard Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model will be used in analyzing the aerosol data in the ACE-Asia program. Our objectives are (1) to understand the physical, chemical, and optical properties of aerosol and the processes that control these properties over the Asian-Pacific region, (2) to determine the aerosol radiative forcing over the Asian-Pacific region, and (3) to investigate the interaction between aerosol and tropospheric chemistry. We will present the GOCART aerosol simulations of sulfate, dust, carbonaceous, and sea salt concentrations, their optical thicknesses, and their radiative effects. We will also show the comparisons of model results with data taken from previous field campaigns, ground-based sun photometer measurements, and satellite observations. Finally, we will present our plan for the ACE-Asia study.

Beschreibung: We evaluate the sensitivity of tropospheric OH, O3, and O3 precursors to photochemical effects of aerosols not usually included in global models: (1) aerosol scattering and absorption of ultraviolet radiation and (2) reactive uptake of HO', NO2, and NO3. Our approach is to couple a global 3-D model of tropospheric chemistry (GEOS- CHEM) with aerosol fields from a global 3-D aerosol model (GOCART). Reactive uptake by aerosols is computed using reaction probabilities from a recent review (gamma(sub HO2) = 0.2, gamma(sub NO2) = 10(exp -4), gamma(sub NO3) = l0(exp -3). Aerosols decrease the O3 - O((sup 1)D) photolysis frequency by 5-20% at the surface throughout the Northern Hemisphere (largely due to mineral dust) and by a factor of 2 in biomass burning regions (largely due to black carbon). Aerosol uptake of HO2 accounts for 10-40% of total HOx radical ((triple bonds)OH + peroxy) loss in the boundary layer over polluted continental regions (largely due to sulfate and organic carbon) and for more than 70% over tropical biomass burning regions (largely due to organic carbon). Uptake of NO2 and NO3 accounts for 10-20% of total HNO3 production over biomass burning regions and less elsewhere. Annual mean OH concentrations decrease by 9% globally and by 5-35% in the boundary layer over the Northern Hemisphere. Simulated CO increases by 5- 15 ppbv in the remote Northern Hemisphere, improving agreement with observations. Simulated boundary layer O3 decreases by 15- 45 ppbv over India during the biomass burning season in March and by 5-9 ppbv over northern Europe in August, again improving comparison with observations. We find that particulate matter controls would increase surface O3 over Europe and other industrial regions.

Beschreibung: Emissions and long-range transport of air pollution pose major concerns on air quality and climate change. To better assess the impact of intercontinental transport of air pollution on regional and global air quality, ecosystems, and near-term climate change, the UN Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP) is organizing a phase II activity (HTAP2) that includes global and regional model experiments and data analysis, focusing on ozone and aerosols. This study presents the initial results of HTAP2 global aerosol modeling experiments. We will (a) evaluate the model results with surface and aircraft measurements, (b) examine the relative contributions of regional emission and extra-regional source on surface PM concentrations and column aerosol optical depth (AOD) over several NH pollution and dust source regions and the Arctic, and (c) quantify the source-receptor relationships in the pollution regions that reflect the sensitivity of regional aerosol amount to the regional and extra-regional emission reductions.

Beschreibung: Fine particulate matter with diameter of 2.5 microns or less (PM2.5) is associated with premature mortality and can travel long distances, impacting air quality and health on intercontinental scales. We estimate the mortality impacts of 20 % anthropogenic primary PM2.5 and PM2.5 precursor emission reductions in each of four major industrial regions (North America, Europe, East Asia, and South Asia) using an ensemble of global chemical transport model simulations coordinated by the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution and epidemiologically-derived concentration-response functions. We estimate that while 93-97 % of avoided deaths from reducing emissions in all four regions occur within the source region, 3-7 % (11,500; 95 % confidence interval, 8,800-14,200) occur outside the source region from concentrations transported between continents. Approximately 17 and 13 % of global deaths avoided by reducing North America and Europe emissions occur extraregionally, owing to large downwind populations, compared with 4 and 2 % for South and East Asia. The coarse resolution global models used here may underestimate intraregional health benefits occurring on local scales, affecting these relative contributions of extraregional versus intraregional health benefits. Compared with a previous study of 20 % ozone precursor emission reductions, we find that despite greater transport efficiency for ozone, absolute mortality impacts of intercontinental PM2.5 transport are comparable or greater for neighboring source-receptor pairs, due to the stronger effect of PM2.5 on mortality. However, uncertainties in modeling and concentration-response relationships are large for both estimates.

Beschreibung: In this study, we assess changes of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and direct radiative forcing (DRF) in response to the reduction of anthropogenic emissions in four major pollution regions in the northern hemisphere by using results from 10 global chemical transport models in the framework of the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP). The multi-model results show that on average, a 20% reduction of anthropogenic emissions in North America, Europe, East Asia and South Asia lowers the global mean AOD and DRF by about 9%, 4%, and 10% for sulfate, organic matter, and black carbon aerosol, respectively. The impacts of the regional emission reductions on AOD and DRF extend well beyond the source regions because of intercontinental transport. On an annual basis, intercontinental transport accounts for 10-30% of the overall AOD and DRF in a receptor region, with domestic emissions accounting for the remainder, depending on regions and species. While South Asia is most influenced by import of sulfate aerosol from Europe, North America is most influenced by import of black carbon from East Asia. Results show a large spread among models, highlighting the need to improve aerosol processes in models and evaluate and constrain models with observations.

Beschreibung: Evidence of aerosol intercontinental transport (ICT) is both widespread and compelling. Model simulations suggest that ICT could significantly affect regional air quality and climate, but the broad inter-model spread of results underscores a need of constraining model simulations with measurements. Satellites have inherent advantages over in situ measurements to characterize aerosol ICT, because of their spatial and temporal coverage. Significant progress in satellite remote sensing of aerosol properties during the Earth Observing System (EOS) era offers opportunity to increase quantitative characterization and estimates of aerosol ICT, beyond the capability of pre-EOS era satellites that could only qualitatively track aerosol plumes. EOS satellites also observe emission strengths and injection heights of some aerosols, aerosol precursors, and aerosol-related gases, which can help characterize aerosol ICT. After an overview of these advances, we review how the current generation of satellite measurements have been used to (1) characterize the evolution of aerosol plumes (e.g., both horizontal and vertical transport, and properties) on an episodic basis, (2) understand the seasonal and inter-annual variations of aerosol ICT and their control factors, (3) estimate the export and import fluxes of aerosols, and (4) evaluate and constrain model simulations. Substantial effort is needed to further explore an integrated approach using measurements from on-orbit satellites (e.g., A-Train synergy) for observational characterization and model constraint of aerosol intercontinental transport and to develop advanced sensors for future missions.