Publication Date:
2020-02-24
Description:
In this study, we address the issue of short-term
to medium-term probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for
two volcanic areas, Campi Flegrei caldera and Mt. Vesuvius
in the Campania region of southern Italy. Two different
phases of the volcanic activity are considered. The first,
which we term the pre-crisis phase, concerns the present
quiescent state of the volcanoes that is characterized by
low-to-moderate seismicity. The second phase, syn-crisis,
concerns the unrest phase that can potentially lead to
eruption. For the Campi Flegrei case study, we analyzed the
pattern of seismicity during the 1982–1984 ground uplift
episode (bradyseism). For Mt. Vesuvius, two different timeevolutionary
models for seismicity were adopted,
corresponding to different ways in which the volcano might
erupt. We performed a site-specific analysis, linked with the
hazard map, to investigate the effects of input parameters,
in terms of source geometry, mean activity rate, periods of
data collection, and return periods, for the syn-crisis phase.
The analysis in the present study of the pre-crisis phase
allowed a comparison of the results of probabilistic seismic
hazard analysis for the two study areas with those provided
in the Italian national hazard map. For the Mt. Vesuvius
area in particular, the results show that the hazard can be
greater than that reported in the national hazard map when
information at a local scale is used. For the syn-crisis phase,
the main result is that the data recorded during the early
months of the unrest phase are substantially representative
of the seismic hazard during the whole duration of the
crisis.
Description:
Published
Description:
767–783
Description:
JCR Journal
Description:
restricted
Keywords:
Seismic hazard
;
04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.99. General or miscellaneous
Repository Name:
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
Type:
article
Permalink