ALBERT

Description: There is currently no consensus on how humans are affecting the marine nitrogen (N) cycle, which limits marine biological production and CO2 uptake. Anthropogenic changes in ocean warming, deoxygenation, and atmospheric N deposition can all individually affect the marine N cycle and the oceanic production of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N2O). However, the combined effect of these perturbations on marine N cycling, ocean productivity, and marine N2O production is poorly understood. Here we use an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to investigate the combined effects of estimated 21st century CO2 atmospheric forcing and atmospheric N deposition. Our simulations suggest that anthropogenic perturbations cause only a small imbalance to the N cycle relative to preindustrial conditions (∼+5 Tg N y−1 in 2100). More N loss from water column denitrification in expanded oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) is counteracted by less benthic denitrification, due to the stratification-induced reduction in organic matter export. The larger atmospheric N load is offset by reduced N inputs by marine N2 fixation. Our model predicts a decline in oceanic N2O emissions by 2100. This is induced by the decrease in organic matter export and associated N2O production and by the anthropogenically driven changes in ocean circulation and atmospheric N2O concentrations. After comprehensively accounting for a series of complex physical-biogeochemical interactions, this study suggests that N flux imbalances are limited by biogeochemical feedbacks that help stabilize the marine N inventory against anthropogenic changes. These findings support the hypothesis that strong negative feedbacks regulate the marine N inventory on centennial time scales.

Description: Growing slowly, marine N2 fixers are generally expected to be competitive only where nitrogen (N) supply is low relative to that of phosphorus (P) with respect to the cellular N:P ratio (R) of non-fixing phytoplankton. This is at odds with observed high N2 fixation rates in the oligotrophic North Atlantic where the ratio of nutrients supplied to the surface is elevated in N relative to the average R (16:1). In this study, we investigate several mechanisms to solve this puzzle: iron limitation, phosphorus enhancement by preferential remineralization or stoichiometric diversity of phytoplankton, and dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP) utilization. Combining resource competition theory and a global coupled ecosystem-circulation model we find that the additional N and energy investments required for exo-enzymatic break-down of DOP gives N2 fixers a competitive advantage in oligotrophic P-starved regions. Accounting for this mechanism expands the ecological niche of N2-fixers also to regions where the nutrient supply is high in N relative to R, yielding, in our model, a pattern consistent with the observed high N2-fixation rates in the oligotrophic North Atlantic.

Description: The impact of increasing anthropogenic atmospheric nitrogen deposition on marine biogeochemistry is uncertain. We performed simulations to quantify its effect on nitrogen cycling and marine productivity in a global 3-D ocean biogeochemistry model. Nitrogen fixation provides an efficient feedback by decreasing immediately to deposition, whereas water column denitrification increases more gradually in the slowly expanding oxygen deficient zones. Counterintuitively, nitrogen deposition near oxygen deficient zones causes a net loss of marine nitrogen due to the stoichiometry of denitrification. In our idealized atmospheric deposition simulations that only account for nitrogen cycle perturbations, these combined stabilizing feedbacks largely compensate deposition and suppress the increase in global marine productivity to 〈2%, in contrast to a simulation that neglects nitrogen cycle feedbacks that predicts an increase of 〉15%. Our study emphasizes including the dynamic response of nitrogen fixation and denitrification to atmospheric nitrogen deposition to predict future changes of the marine nitrogen cycle and productivity.

Description: In the last few decades, phytoplankton biomass has been commonly studied from space. However, satellite analysis of non-algal particles (NAPs), including heterotrophic bacteria and viruses, is relatively recent. In this work, we estimate the backscattering coefficient associated with the NAP fraction that does not covary with chlorophyll based on satellite particulate backscattering coefficient and chlorophyll (bbpNAP). bbpNAP is computed at 100-km resolution using 19 years of monthly satellite data. We find clear differences in bbpNAP between northern and southern oceans. High bbpNAP values are found in the Arctic and Southern Oceans, the North Atlantic area influenced by the Gulf Stream current, as well as shelf regions (i.e., Patagonian shelf) affected by upwelling regimes. Low correlation between chlorophyll and backscattering prevents precise bbpNAP estimations in oligotrophic areas (e.g., subtropical gyres). These bbpNAP estimations lead to a reduction to half in satellite-based phytoplankton biomass estimates respect to previously published results.

Description: The marine biological carbon pump (BCP) stores carbon in the ocean interior, isolating it from exchange with the atmosphere and thereby coregulating atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). As the BCP commonly is equated with the flux of organic material to the ocean interior, termed “export flux,” a change in export flux is perceived to directly impact atmospheric CO 2 , and thus climate. Here, we recap how this perception contrasts with current understanding of the BCP, emphasizing the lack of a direct relationship between global export flux and atmospheric CO 2 . We argue for the use of the storage of carbon of biological origin in the ocean interior as a diagnostic that directly relates to atmospheric CO 2 , as a way forward to quantify the changes in the BCP in a changing climate. The diagnostic is conveniently applicable to both climate model data and increasingly available observational data. It can explain a seemingly paradoxical response under anthropogenic climate change: Despite a decrease in export flux, the BCP intensifies due to a longer reemergence time of biogenically stored carbon back to the ocean surface and thereby provides a negative feedback to increasing atmospheric CO 2 . This feedback is notably small compared with anthropogenic CO 2 emissions and other carbon‐climate feedbacks. In this Opinion paper, we advocate for a comprehensive view of the BCP's impact on atmospheric CO 2 , providing a prerequisite for assessing the effectiveness of marine CO 2 removal approaches that target marine biology.

Description: Key points: Models performing similarly with respect to global NO3, PO4, and O2 distributions yield diverse responses in marine N2 fixation to warming • Marine N2 fixation trends are sensitive to whether iron limits primary production in upwelling regions, for example, the Eastern Tropical Pacific Biological nitrogen fixation is an important oceanic nitrogen source, potentially stabilizing marine fertility in an increasingly stratified and nutrient-depleted ocean. Iron limitation of low latitude primary producers has been previously demonstrated to affect simulated regional ecosystem responses to climate warming or nitrogen cycle perturbation. Here we use three biogeochemical models that vary in their representation of the iron cycle to estimate change in the marine nitrogen cycle under a high CO2 emissions future scenario (RCP8.5). The first model neglects explicit iron effects on biology (NoFe), the second utilizes prescribed, seasonally-cyclic iron concentrations and associated limitation factors (FeMask), and the third contains a fully dynamic iron cycle (FeDyn). Models were calibrated using observed fields to produce near-equivalent nutrient and oxygen fits, with productivity ranging from 49 to 75 Pg C yr−1. Global marine nitrogen fixation increases by 71.1% with respect to the preindustrial value by the year 2100 in NoFe, while it remains stable (0.7% decrease in FeMask and 0.3% increase in FeDyn) in explicit iron models. The mitigation of global nitrogen fixation trend in the models that include a representation of iron originates in the Eastern boundary upwelling zones, where the bottom-up control of iron limitation reduces export production with warming, which shrinks the oxygen deficient volume, and reduces denitrification. Warming-induced trends in the oxygen deficient volume in the upwelling zones have a cascading effect on the global nitrogen cycle, just as they have previously been shown to affect tropical net primary production.