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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2015-08-10
    Description: The ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble square root filters are data assimilation methods used to combine high-dimensional, nonlinear dynamical models with observed data. Ensemble methods are indispensable tools in science and engineering and have enjoyed great success in geophysical sciences, because they allow for computationally cheap low-ensemble-state approximation for extremely high-dimensional turbulent forecast models. From a theoretical perspective, the dynamical properties of these methods are poorly understood. One of the central mysteries is the numerical phenomenon known as catastrophic filter divergence, whereby ensemble-state estimates explode to machine infinity, despite the true state remaining in a bounded region. In this article we provide a breakthrough insight into the phenomenon, by introducing a simple and natural forecast model that transparently exhibits catastrophic filter divergence under all ensemble methods and a large set of initializations. For this model, catastrophic filter divergence is not an artifact of numerical instability, but rather a true dynamical property of the filter. The divergence is not only validated numerically but also proven rigorously. The model cleanly illustrates mechanisms that give rise to catastrophic divergence and confirms intuitive accounts of the phenomena given in past literature.
    Print ISSN: 0027-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1091-6490
    Topics: Biology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2018-04-17
    Description: Urbanization and rural–urban migration are two factors driving global patterns of disease and mortality. There is significant concern about their potential impact on disease burden and the effectiveness of current control approaches. Few attempts have been made to increase our understanding of the relationship between urbanization and disease dynamics, although it is generally believed that urban living has contributed to reductions in communicable disease burden in industrialized countries. To investigate this relationship, we carried out spatiotemporal analyses using a 48-year-long dataset of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome incidence (HFRS; mainly caused by two serotypes of hantavirus in China: Hantaan virus and Seoul virus) and population movements in an important endemic area of south China during the period 1963–2010. Our findings indicate that epidemics coincide with urbanization, geographic expansion, and migrant movement over time. We found a biphasic inverted U-shaped relationship between HFRS incidence and urbanization, with various endemic turning points associated with economic growth rates in cities. Our results revealed the interrelatedness of urbanization, migration, and hantavirus epidemiology, potentially explaining why urbanizing cities with high economic growth exhibit extended epidemics. Our results also highlight contrasting effects of urbanization on zoonotic disease outbreaks during periods of economic development in China.
    Print ISSN: 0027-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1091-6490
    Topics: Biology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2020-08-27
    Description: Antibodies may bind to bacterial pathogens or their toxins to control infections, and their effector activity is mediated through the recruitment of complement component C1q or the engagement with Fcγ receptors (FcγRs). For bacterial pathogens that rely on a single toxin to cause disease, immunity correlates with toxin neutralization. Most other bacterial pathogens, including Staphylococcus aureus, secrete numerous toxins and evolved multiple mechanisms to escape opsonization and complement killing. Several vaccine candidates targeting defined surface antigens of S. aureus have failed to meet clinical endpoints. It is unclear that such failures can be solely attributed to the poor selection of antibody targets. Thus far, studies to delineate antibody-mediated uptake and killing of Gram-positive pathogens remain extremely limited. Here, we exploit 3F6-hIgG1, a human monoclonal antibody that binds and neutralizes the abundant surface-exposed Staphylococcal protein A (SpA). We find that galactosylation of 3F6-hIgG1 that favors C1q recruitment is indispensable for opsonophagocytic killing of staphylococci and for protection against bloodstream infection in animals. However, the simple removal of fucosyl residues, which results in reduced C1q binding and increased engagement with FcγR, maintains the opsonophagocytic killing and protective attributes of the antibody. We confirm these results by engineering 3F6-hIgG1 variants with biased binding toward C1q or FcγRs. While the therapeutic benefit of monoclonal antibodies against infectious disease agents may be debatable, the functional characterization of such antibodies represents a powerful tool for the development of correlates of protection that may guide future vaccine trials.
    Print ISSN: 0027-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1091-6490
    Topics: Biology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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