ALBERT

Description: In this work, we assessed the possible relation of ionospheric perturbations observed by Detection of Electro-Magnetic Emissions Transmitted from Earthquake Regions (DEMETER), Global Positioning System total electron content (GPS TEC), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-derived outgoing longwave-Earth radiation (OLR), and atmospheric chemical potential (ACP) measurements, with volcanic and Saharan dust events identified by ground and satellite-based medium infrared/thermal infrared (MIR/TIR) observations. The results indicated that the Mt. Etna (Italy) volcanic activity of 2006 was probably responsible for the ionospheric perturbations revealed by DEMETER on 4 November and 6 December and by GPS TEC observations on 4 November and 12 December. This activity also affected the OLR (on 26 October; 6 and 23 November; and 2, 6, and 14 December) and ACP (on 31 October–1 November) analyses. Similarly, two massive Saharan dust episodes, detected by Robust Satellite Techniques (RST) using Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) optical data, probably caused the ionospheric anomalies recorded, based on DEMETER and GPS TEC observations, over the Mediterranean basin in May 2008. The study confirmed the perturbing effects of volcanic and dust events on tropospheric and ionospheric parameters. Further, it demonstrated the advantages of using independent satellite observations to investigate atmospheric phenomena, which may not always be well documented. The impact of this increased detection capacity in reducing false positives, in the framework of a short-term seismic hazard forecast based on the study of ionospheric and tropospheric anomalies, is also addressed.

Description: The paper provides a comparative analysis of precursory phenomena in the ionosphere and atmosphere for two strong earthquakes of the same magnitude M7.1 that happened in the same region (North-East from Los Angeles) within a time span of 20 years, the Hector Mine and Ridgecrest earthquakes. Regardless of the similarity of their location (South-Eastern California, near 160 km one from another), there was one essential difference: the Hector Mine earthquake happened during geomagnetically disturbed conditions (essential in the sense of ionospheric precursors identification). In contrast, the quiet geomagnetic conditions characterized the period around the time of the Ridgecrest earthquake. The Hector mine earthquake happened in the middle of the rising phase of the 23-rd solar cycle characterized by high solar activity, while the Ridgecrest earthquake happened by the very end of the 24th cycle under very low solar activity conditions. We provide a comprehensive multi-factor analysis, determine the precursory period for both earthquakes and demonstrate the close similarity of ionospheric precursors. Unlike the majority of papers dealing with earthquake precursor identification based on the “abnormality” of observed time-series mainly determined by amplitude difference between “normal” (usually climatic) behavior and “abnormal” behavior with amplitudes exceeding some pre-established threshold, we used the technique of cognitive recognition of the precursors based on the physical mechanisms of their generation and the morphology of their behavior during the precursory period. These permits to uniquely identify precursors even in conditions of disturbed environment as it was around the time of the Hector Mine earthquake. We demonstrate the close similarity of precursors’ development for both events. The leading time of precursor appearance for the same region and similar magnitude was identical. For the Hector Mine it was 11 October 1999—5 days in advance—and for 2019 Ridgecrest it was 28 June—7 days before the mainshock and five days before the strongest foreshock.