ALBERT

Description: The radiative forcing from aerosols (particularly through their interaction with clouds) remains one of the most uncertain components of the human forcing of the climate. Observation-based studies have typically found a smaller aerosol effective radiative forcing than in model simulations and were given preferential weighting in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). With their own sources of uncertainty, it is not clear that observation-based estimates are more reliable. Understanding the source of the model and observational differences is thus vital to reduce uncertainty in the impact of aerosols on the climate. These reported discrepancies arise from the different methods of separating the components of aerosol forcing used in model and observational studies. Applying the observational decomposition to global climate model (GCM) output, the two different lines of evidence are surprisingly similar, with a much better agreement on the magnitude of aerosol impacts on cloud properties. Cloud adjustments remain a significant source of uncertainty, particularly for ice clouds. However, they are consistent with the uncertainty from observation-based methods, with the liquid water path adjustment usually enhancing the Twomey effect by less than 50 %. Depending on different sets of assumptions, this work suggests that model and observation-based estimates could be more equally weighted in future synthesis studies.

Description: The impact of aerosols on cloud properties is one of the largest uncertainties in the anthropogenic radiative forcing of the climate. Significant progress has been made in constraining this forcing using observations, but uncertainty remains, particularly in the magnitude of cloud rapid adjustments to aerosol perturbations. Cloud liquid water path (LWP) is the leading control on liquid-cloud albedo, making it important to observationally constrain the aerosol impact on LWP. Previous modelling and observational studies have shown that multiple processes play a role in determining the LWP response to aerosol perturbations, but that the aerosol effect can be difficult to isolate. Following previous studies using mediating variables, this work investigates use of the relationship between cloud droplet number concentration (Nd) and LWP for constraining the role of aerosols. Using joint-probability histograms to account for the non-linear relationship, this work finds a relationship that is broadly consistent with previous studies. There is significant geographical variation in the relationship, partly due to role of meteorological factors (particularly relative humidity). The Nd–LWP relationship is negative in the majority of regions, suggesting that aerosol-induced LWP reductions could offset a significant fraction of the instantaneous radiative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions (RFaci). However, variations in the Nd–LWP relationship in response to volcanic and shipping aerosol perturbations indicate that the Nd–LWP relationship overestimates the causal Nd impact on LWP due to the role of confounding factors. The weaker LWP reduction implied by these “natural experiments” means that this work provides an upper bound to the radiative forcing from aerosol-induced changes in the LWP.

Description: In this study we evaluate cloud properties simulated by the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) using in situ measurements from the HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) campaign for the period of 2009 to 2011. The modeled wind and temperature are nudged towards reanalysis. Model results collocated with HIPPO flight tracks are directly compared with the observations, and model sensitivities to the representations of ice nucleation and growth are also examined. Generally, CAM5 is able to capture specific cloud systems in terms of vertical configuration and horizontal extension. In total, the model reproduces 79.8 % of observed cloud occurrences inside model grid boxes and even higher (94.3 %) for ice clouds (T ≤ −40 °C). The missing cloud occurrences in the model are primarily ascribed to the fact that the model cannot account for the high spatial variability of observed relative humidity (RH). Furthermore, model RH biases are mostly attributed to the discrepancies in water vapor, rather than temperature. At the micro-scale of ice clouds, the model captures the observed increase of ice crystal mean sizes with temperature, albeit with smaller sizes than the observations. The model underestimates the observed ice number concentration (Ni) and ice water content (IWC) for ice crystals larger than 75 µm in diameter. Modeled IWC and Ni are more sensitive to the threshold diameter for autoconversion of cloud ice to snow (Dcs), while simulated ice crystal mean size is more sensitive to ice nucleation parameterizations than to Dcs. Our results highlight the need for further improvements to the sub-grid RH variability and ice nucleation and growth in the model.

Description: Aerosol–cloud interactions continue to constitute a major source of uncertainty for the estimate of climate radiative forcing. The variation of aerosol indirect effects (AIE) in climate models is investigated across different dynamical regimes, determined by monthly mean 500 hPa vertical pressure velocity (ω500), lower-tropospheric stability (LTS) and large-scale surface precipitation rate derived from several global climate models (GCMs), with a focus on liquid water path (LWP) response to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations. The LWP sensitivity to aerosol perturbation within dynamic regimes is found to exhibit a large spread among these GCMs. It is in regimes of strong large-scale ascent (ω500   0.1 mm day−1) contributes the most to the total aerosol indirect forcing (from 64 to nearly 100 %). Results show that the uncertainty in AIE is even larger within specific dynamical regimes compared to the uncertainty in its global mean values, pointing to the need to reduce the uncertainty in AIE in different dynamical regimes.

Description: The Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6), released in 2018 as part of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2), is a major upgrade over the previous CAM5 that has been used in numerous global and regional climate studies. Since CESM2–CAM6 will participate in the upcoming Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and is likely to be adopted in many future studies, its simulation fidelity needs to be thoroughly examined. Here we evaluate the performance of a developmental version of the Community Atmosphere Model with parameterizations that will be used in version 6 (CAM6α), with a default 1∘ horizontal resolution (0.9∘×1.25∘, CAM6α-1∘) and a high-resolution configuration (approximately 0.25∘, CAM6α-0.25∘), against various observational and reanalysis datasets of precipitation over Asia. CAM6α performance is compared with CAM5 at default 1∘ horizontal resolution (CAM5-1∘) and a high-resolution configuration at 0.25∘ (CAM5-0.25∘). With the prognostic treatment of precipitation processes and the new microphysics module, CAM6α is able to better simulate climatological mean and extreme precipitation over Asia, better capture the heaviest precipitation events, better reproduce the diurnal cycle of precipitation rates over most of Asia, and better simulate the probability density distributions of daily precipitation over Tibet, Korea, Japan and northern China. Higher horizontal resolution in CAM6α improves the simulation of mean and extreme precipitation over northern China, but the performance degrades over the Maritime Continent. Moisture budget diagnosis suggests that the physical processes leading to model improvement are different over different regions. Both upgraded physical parameterizations and higher horizontal resolution affect the simulated precipitation response to the internal variability of the climate system (e.g., Asian monsoon variability, El Niño–Southern Oscillation – ENSO, Pacific Decadal Oscillation – PDO), but the effects vary across different regions. For example, higher horizontal resolution degrades the model performance in simulating precipitation variability over southern China associated with the East Asian summer monsoon. In contrast, precipitation variability associated with ENSO improves with upgraded physical parameterizations and higher horizontal resolution. CAM6α-0.25∘ and CAM6α-1∘ show an opposite response to the PDO over southern China. Basically, the response to increases in horizontal resolution is dependent on the CAM version.

Description: This paper documents coupled simulations of two developmental versions of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) towards CAM6. The configuration called CAM5.4 introduces new microphysics, aerosol, and ice nucleation changes, among others to CAM. The CAM5.5 configuration represents a more radical departure as it uses an assumed PDF-based unified cloud parameterization to replace the turbulence, shallow convection, and warm cloud macrophysics in CAM. This assumed PDF method has been widely used in the last decade in atmosphere-only climate simulations, but has never been documented in coupled mode. Here we compare the simulated coupled climates of CAM5.4 and CAM5.5 and compare them to the control coupled simulation produced by CAM5.3. We find that CAM5.5 has lower cloud forcing biases when compared to the control simulations. Improvements are also seen in the simulated amplitude of the El Niño 3.4 index, an improved representation of the diurnal cycle of precipitation, sub-tropical surface wind stresses, and double Intertropical Convergence zone biases.  Degradations are seen in Amazon precipitation as well as slightly colder sea surface temperatures and thinner Arctic Sea Ice. Simulation of the 20th century results in a credible simulation that ends slightly colder than the control coupled simulation. The authors find this is due to aerosol indirect effects that are slightly stronger in the new version of the model and propose a solution to ameliorate this. Overall, in these relatively untuned coupled simulations, CAM5.5 produces a credible climate that is appropriate for science applications and is ready for integration into the National Center for Atmospheric Research's (NCAR's) next generation climate model.

Description: The radiative forcing from aerosols (particularly through their interaction with clouds) remains one of the most uncertain components of the human forcing of the climate. Observation-based studies have typically found a smaller aerosol effective radiative forcing than in model simulations and were given preferential weighting in the IPCC AR5 report. With their own sources of uncertainty, it is not clear that observation-based estimates are more reliable. Understanding the source of the model-observational difference is thus vital to reduce uncertainty in the impact of aerosols on the climate. These reported discrepancies arise from the different decompositions of the aerosol forcing used in model and observational studies. Applying the observational decomposition to global climate model output, the two different lines of evidence are surprisingly similar, with a much better agreement on the magnitude of aerosol impacts on cloud properties. Cloud adjustments remain a significant source of uncertainty, particularly for ice clouds. However, they are consistent with the uncertainty from observation-based methods, with the liquid water path adjustment usually enhancing the Twomey effect by less than 50 %. Depending on different sets of assumptions, this work suggests that model and observation-based estimates could be more equally weighted in future synthesis studies.

Description: Analyses of the climate effects of 2050 aviation emissions have been conducted with two coupled Chemistry Climate Models (CCMs) including experiments with coupled ocean models. The baseline 2050 aviation emissions scenario projects emissions ~ 5 times those in 2006. Simulations suggest a corresponding growth in the climate impact of aviation by 2050. Positive radiative forcing from contrails reaches +80 mWm−2. Enhanced upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric ozone (O3) due to aviation nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions causes a radiative forcing of +60 mWm−2. Changes in methane (CH4) lifetime induced by aviation are estimated to cause −25 mWm−2 of radiative forcing in 2050. Simulations indicate that moderate changes in water vapor emissions from changes in combustion efficiency will not have significant forcing. Non-linear effects due to particles (black carbon and sulfur) included in these calculations suggest an important role for black carbon (BC) in increasing contrail cirrus ice crystal number, leading to net warming. Sulfur emissions brighten clouds and provide a net cooling, but this is dependent on uncertain background sulfur levels. Thus alternative aviation fuels with reduced sulfur and BC may alter the future climate impact of aviation, but the sign is dependent on specific processes represented and the background state. Regional perturbations due to contrail and particulate emissions may result in statistically significant regional surface temperature changes in coupled model simulations in areas near or adjacent to flight corridors, but significant signals only emerge after 20–50 years of simulation. Many regions with high regional aviation forcing do not experience net surface temperature changes because of advective rather than radiative driving of temperatures. Surface temperature signals are not significant globally even in long coupled simulations. Short-lived non-uniform aviation forcing will thus affect climate differently than uniform forcing in the coupled climate system.

Description: In this study we evaluate cloud properties simulated by the Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 (CAM5) using in-situ measurements from the HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) for the period of 2009 to 2011. The modeled wind and temperature are nudged towards reanalysis. Model results collocated with HIPPO flight tracks are directly compared with the observations, and model sensitivities to the representations of ice nucleation and growth are also examined. Generally, CAM5 is able to capture specific cloud systems in terms of vertical configuration and horizontal extension. In total, the model reproduces 79.8 % of observed cloud occurrences inside model grid boxes, and even higher (94.3 %) for ice clouds (T ≤ −40 °C). The missing cloud occurrences in the model are primarily ascribed to the fact that the model cannot account for the high spatial variability of observed relative humidity (RH). Furthermore, model RH biases are mostly attributed to the discrepancies in water vapor, rather than temperature. At the micro-scale of ice clouds, the model captures the observed increase of ice crystal mean sizes with temperature, albeit with smaller sizes than the observations. The model underestimates the observed ice number concentration (Ni) and ice water content (IWC) for ice crystals larger than 75 μm in diameter. Modeled IWC and Ni are more sensitive to the threshold diameter for autoconversion of cloud ice to snow (Dcs), while simulated ice crystal mean size is more sensitive to ice nucleation parameterizations than to Dcs. Our results highlight the need for further improvements to the sub-grid RH variability and ice nucleation and growth in the model.

Description: The impact of aerosols on cloud properties is one of the largest uncertainties in the anthropogenic radiative forcing of the climate. In recent years, significant progress has been made in constraining this forcing using observations, but uncertainty still remains, particularly in the adjustments of cloud properties to aerosol perturbations. Cloud liquid water path (LWP) is the leading control on liquid-cloud albedo, making it important to observationally constrain the aerosol impact LWP. Previous modelling and observational studies have shown that multiple processes play a role in determining the LWP response to aerosol perturbations, but that the aerosol effect can be difficult to isolate. Following previous studies using mediating variables, this work investigates use of the relationship between cloud droplet number concentration (Nd) and LWP for constraining the role of aerosols. Using joint probability histograms to account for the non-linear relationship, this work finds a relationship that is broadly consistent with previous studies. There is significant geographical variation in the relationship, partly due to role of meteorological factors (particularly relative humidity) in the relationship. However, the Nd-LWP relationship is negative in the majority of regions, suggesting that aerosol induced LWP reductions could offset a significant fraction of the radiative forcing from aerosol-cloud interactions (RFaci). However, variations in the Nd-LWP relationship in response to volcanic and shipping aerosol perturbations indicate that the Nd-LWP relationship overestimates the Nd impact on LWP. As such, the estimate of LWP changes due to aerosol in this work provides an upper bound to the radiative forcing from aerosol-induced changes in the LWP.